Mini 1782 Game Over

[Froot Loop]

Froot, you keep bringing up the pointless discussion on the neighbor slot like I kept yapping and yapping on my own about it for no reason. You were the one who kept asking me multiple times about as if it was the most pertinent thing in the world.

And now you are saying you find it scummy for clarifying?

Are you listening to yourself?

(my bold)

What do you mean by this?

I think the speculation about the neighbour is pertinent and it was done by many players. There was conversation and points made about it outside of our conversation and I noted Max's comment and the fact that he was speculating about it as a town player. I didn't mention you at all in that post. I also think the new context in which I was reading D2 shows a different interpretation/motivation. That's why I mentioned it again.

What do you think about the more general D2 point I made? That's what I was trying to discuss, more than the neighbour thing specifically.

[Roshar]

Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max.

So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch.

You keep referring to it as a, 'discussion'. It was one comment. You keep making it seem like I spent so much time discussing this like I wanted to avoid actual discussion that would lead to a lynch.

You didn't refer to me here specifically. But you and I were engaged primarily in this discussion for a lot of D2. So, why are you surprised that I'm considering that I'm part of who you're speaking about?

[Roshar]

Can you explain this more. I don't seem to follow.

About Lowell's Roshar push - he voted for Max, Max called him out, then Lowell pushed Roshar. Considering the pressure on Max, I think it's an unlikely scum play to move onto Roshar. There seems to be more value and it'd be legitimate to continue pushing Max.

That makes me recontextualise Lowell's push on Roshar, FA_Q2's questioning of Titus and APF's vote on FA_Q2. I'd also say that Johnny and Titus' behaviour in D2 fits this description of possible scum play from reading D2 in this context. Garmr came in and talked about APF but it was a little late in the day (because of the replacement, totally null) to be considered for this point.

^This as well. Each case, explain it individually so I can try to follow what conclusion you derived.

[Titus]

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

I think it's unlikely to help if we start with an idea of what scum might have been doing and then working backwards. I think VCA can help but most likely when it's compared with what a player's been saying or their attitudes towards the wagons in the game. There's so many possible patterns of scum behaviour that starting from that side is pretty difficult.

Then we have fundamental differences on the point and function of VCA. What people say is charisma]. Who benefits can be NAI.

I think it's relevant that there weren't very many other options yesterday apart from Max although I guess Lowell was the counterwagon. A lot of the votes on Max in D2 were the same as D1. It's possible that scum saw/understood the pressure on Max, and the willingness to lynch him, and saw that they didn't need to do anything to try to get a mislynch.

That makes me recontextualise Lowell's push on Roshar, FA_Q2's questioning of Titus and APF's vote on FA_Q2. I'd also say that Johnny and Titus' behaviour in D2 fits this description of possible scum play from reading D2 in this context. Garmr came in and talked about APF but it was a little late in the day (because of the replacement, totally null) to be considered for this point.

Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max. So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch. I'm not saying it's AI (Max talked about it as well, so obviously) but that's another point.

About Lowell's Roshar push - he voted for Max, Max called him out, then Lowell pushed Roshar. Considering the pressure on Max, I think it's an unlikely scum play to move onto Roshar. There seems to be more value and it'd be legitimate to continue pushing Max.

Kinda. I see the point on Lowell.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I get what you're saying if that makes you feel any more sane frooty, but Titus has been very right in the past

[Titus]

@Johnny, Talk to me about Huntress. I hate the reasons she's pushing out but Huntress was someone I considered pushing today. For instance, the wagoning for telling us we're stupid is bad since we have groupthink issues. Yet, Huntress slot did little D1.

[Titus]

*I hate Roshar's reasons for Huntress push out.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Huntress is really easy to vote right now, and I also really want to sympathize with anyone not keeping up with this game because it's not great. Is there every push on her has been sad.

That said, she doesn't really look good right now given the circumstances of the first two lynches. If I lose to her because she's scum I'll be really sad about it. So I dunno, I'd vote her but not for any really good reason

[Titus]

Is there anyone you feel has a good reason on them? I don't feel comfortable with circumstantial voting by itself ATM.

[Froot Loop]

Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max.

So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch.

You keep referring to it as a, 'discussion'. It was one comment. You keep making it seem like I spent so much time discussing this like I wanted to avoid actual discussion that would lead to a lynch.

You didn't refer to me here specifically. But you and I were engaged primarily in this discussion for a lot of D2. So, why are you surprised that I'm considering that I'm part of who you're speaking about?

You made one comment. Max commented, smith commented, Titus and JF commented and I commented. Between 1372 and 1383 definitively, there was a discussion about the neighbour. I'm talking about you and others as well.

I think it's possible scum would've seen the likelihood of a Max lynch at the beginning of the day and let it go through. If that's the case, Lowell's push against you is unlikely scum play because it's introducing a new ML candidate when there's already a perfectly good one. The same with FA_Q2 (with the addition that he was questioning Titus on Max, who turned out to be town) and APF.

[Froot Loop]

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

I think it's unlikely to help if we start with an idea of what scum might have been doing and then working backwards. I think VCA can help but most likely when it's compared with what a player's been saying or their attitudes towards the wagons in the game. There's so many possible patterns of scum behaviour that starting from that side is pretty difficult.

Then we have fundamental differences on the point and function of VCA. What people say is charisma]. Who benefits can be NAI.

Yeah. I was thinking about conflicts or changes between what people say and what they do. Or VCA can show patterns of play which can be suspicious (being on all the wagons, not voting, last-minute hammering, etc.) If you think it's unlikely that scum were on both wagons, or pushed both wagons, or pushed Clumsy and then let Max go through, VCA can confirm who fits that pattern of play, but it doesn't help confirm how likely it is that any of those things happened.

[Titus]

Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max.

So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch.

You keep referring to it as a, 'discussion'. It was one comment. You keep making it seem like I spent so much time discussing this like I wanted to avoid actual discussion that would lead to a lynch.

You didn't refer to me here specifically. But you and I were engaged primarily in this discussion for a lot of D2. So, why are you surprised that I'm considering that I'm part of who you're speaking about?

You made one comment. Max commented, smith commented, Titus and JF commented and I commented. Between 1372 and 1383 definitively, there was a discussion about the neighbour. I'm talking about you and others as well.

I think it's possible scum would've seen the likelihood of a Max lynch at the beginning of the day and let it go through. If that's the case, Lowell's push against you is unlikely scum play because it's introducing a new ML candidate when there's already a perfectly good one. The same with FA_Q2 (with the addition that he was questioning Titus on Max, who turned out to be town) and APF.

WHy are you supposing Roshar is a mislynch?

[Titus]

Again, all the premises you're stating FL suppose that all the candidates are mislynches. We know in general scum didn't want a major mislynch to be pushed. That doesn't stop weakass scum theatre or scum pushing a weakass lynch on a townie hoping nothing happens.

[Roshar]

Good point.

[Titus]

You're still not addressing my concern. Why did you have that supposition that all the alternatives to Max were also town?

[Roshar]

Was that to me? I thought you were addressing Froot's referral to me as ML.

[Titus]

Sorry I had you backwards for a moment. It's been a long ass day and I'm a little short.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I don't actually have a vote in mind, otherwise I'd be pushing it. The people who I probably won't vote are Titus, Froot, Gar, and Lowell. Anyone else is porbably worth voting at some point, but I dontnhave any really clear reads atm

[Titus]

I don't actually have a vote in mind, otherwise I'd be pushing it. The people who I probably won't vote are Titus, Froot, Gar, and Lowell. Anyone else is porbably worth voting at some point, but I dontnhave any really clear reads atm

*squints at reads list, looks at D1* Why on everyone?

[Froot Loop]

I was thinking about the likelihood of Lowell's play as scum. I hadn't thought about them both being scum but it's a possibility. At the moment I'd say it's unlikely based on the discussion. It's also possible that Lowell is town and Roshar is scum or that they're both town.

I'm not making the assumption that the other pushes are on town players. There's nothing AI to me about being the target of the push. I'm thinking that a scum player might not push another player when there's a clear ML candidate. I think Lowell was a counterwagon yesterday, so I don't think this applies as much to votes on him so I looked elsewhere.

[Titus]

I was thinking about the likelihood of Lowell's play as scum. I hadn't thought about them both being scum but it's a possibility. At the moment I'd say it's unlikely based on the discussion. It's also possible that Lowell is town and Roshar is scum or that they're both town.

I'm not making the assumption that the other pushes are on town players. There's nothing AI to me about being the target of the push. I'm thinking that a scum player might not push another player when there's a clear ML candidate. I think Lowell was a counterwagon yesterday, so I don't think this applies as much to votes on him so I looked elsewhere.

Scum might push if there's another mislynch candidate. That's not true. Scum can grandstand... look at how bad this wagon is and I'm over here, distance or just generally be unable to make content.

I wouldn't expect them to join up on other wagons to make any viable, but the small individual wagons are not AI without a scum flip.

[Roshar]

@Johnny, why do you think Garmr is town?

[Froot Loop]

@Titus - do you think Lowell was doing any of those things? Or that there's any reason to think one is more likely than another?

I get your point about the individual pushes and encouraging the counterwagon. I was thinking it'd be easy to jump on the Lowell wagon but the individual points are making a stand when it'd be unnecessary.

[Titus]

@Titus - do you think Lowell was doing any of those things? Or that there's any reason to think one is more likely than another?

I get your point about the individual pushes and encouraging the counterwagon. I was thinking it'd be easy to jump on the Lowell wagon but the individual points are making a stand when it'd be unnecessary.

I don't know yet. I townread Lowell based on his play currently though. Based on the VCs, impossible to tell.

[a plain farmer]

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

There are four slots that I'd characterize as not having pushed either of the D1 wagons heavily:

FAQ: Maverick votes Clumsy in 962/963 but doesn't seem to have any conviction in it. Then when FAQ replaces in, he doesn't acknowledge his predecessor's vote, but allows it to stay there through the lynch and doesn't mention Clumsy aside from asking a question.

Huntress: Says she scumreads Clumsy in 971 but doesn't elaborate. By 1121 she is expressing doubts about his wagon, and in 1196 states a preference for lynching Max. In 1209 says she's taking her time in voting Max because her main scumread (at the time, Rosh) was on the Max wagon. She then votes Max in 1239 citing no realistic chance of lynching Rosh.

Johnny: Says in 1244 that 1207 is the only thing making him want to vote Clumsy, then votes him in 1252.

Shaddow(Garmr): Wasn't on either the Clumsy or Max wagon.

Of these, the only one whose actions vis-a-vis the D1 wagons seem scummy is FAQ, since he basically helped a wagon go through without doing anything to invite blame on himself.

Do you have a reason why not having heavily pushed either of these wagons is inherently scummy?