Mini Normal 1848 — Game Over!

[MortFeld]

Ok you said you can see RK scum.

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The Creeps vote was not a reaction test (I misread), the other stuff stands.

Drone was voting RK exclusively for the Creeps vote, which I didn't like from Drone.

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rb, Arc = TB.

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I am annoyed at Shadow because it seems like he was only interested in treating this game as an entry for his hypoplay experiment and isn't interested in playing.

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Yeah I wouldn't vote for him because of the hypoplay idea, I'd vote for him because it's substituted for content.

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I'm just throwing it out as an idea. I'd rather lynch Chaos, then Arc, then Drone.

Pedit: yeah that was a weird comment from Shadow. Read Creeps' ISO for some twilight zone shit.

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Is there a way to ISO two people on the same page?

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Awesome, thanks.

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You were waiting for HS, no?

Currently reading HS + Drone ISO to see how much info I feel we get from a Drone lynch.

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A lot of people townread Creeps, I don't know what that means. I see nearly everything he did as scummy but the number of people who were willing to jump on him so early makes me think town. He also apparently has a history on a different forum of getting mislynched.

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rb left out Nero too I think.

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Test (I can't post what I want to, mod please delete this if it goes through)

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Spoiler: A lot of Drone, a little of HS. PBPA

Okay. I'm not suspicious of you at the moment, just to clarify.
I really wouldn't mind creeps at L-1 to be honest. I don't think a omgushammer is likely and even in worst case scenario I don't think he's going to be of much help after today, even if he does flip green.

Drone, do you agree?

Too obvious to buddy, too weird to ignore. At this point I was already confirmed but V/LA. What was the purpose behind this?

NAI from Drone and probably from HS too.

the parts of 334 about me look weird. like HS just wanted to agree with Drone's case on me from 330

Drone, stop defending me. I can do that myself.

If HS and Drone are scum buddies... lol

Hmmm ok this is complicated. In 354 TF basically says that he wants to lynch Copper today and HS tomorrow. Drone in 365 takes this to mean an association, that TF thinks that Copper scum -> HS scum - which is obviously not what TF meant. Wondering why Drone went there.

470 HS is planning waaaaay ahead with this breadcrumbing, could be distancing.

613 already stated my opinion about this PL business but jfc every time I read this and the ensuing wagon I am certain at least one person on it is scum. Like I get that TF is potentially PL-worthy, but town!TF is such an easy wagon to jump on/start here.

Ok Drone votes HS in 813 basically citing my reasoning re: Creeps PL. 815 says he thinks HS and Creeps are scum partners, and that HS said they think TF is town because they have prior knowledge (lynch TF, told you he was town!). Which seems to be reaching a lot. Maybe Drone has prior knowledge.

821 is weiiiiird how is isolation scum indicative? Why is scum!HS isolating but not town? Wtf is that post

858 maintains he cannot see HS as town, given that "HS reads TF town, joins his wagon, but tries to create pl lynch on Creeps." So case is pretty solidified for Drone. 864 doesn't believe/like HS' VT claim. 868 870 add to the case.

871 is L O L, Drone seems to think a lot of people are willing to and do bus.

1225 Drone unvotes HS, says "Why is this wagon still on?" whaaat on earth, like, Drone leaves off saying 'why would a VT roleclaim!?' basically that HS has to be scum! And then unvotes without explanation. So that's odd. Distancing from scum buddy? Knows HS is town so either Drone makes an ally by unvoting, or HS is lynched while Drone is away, so win/win? Or Drone is town and has a legitimate reason to unvote here.

1227 1234 1237 and then 1243 are bleh from Drone. Just a gross progression, from
Who thinks RK has a point on Mort? to
Here is the reasoning and why it is scummy from Mort, to
Well, for someone who didn't read, it's reasonable for RK to argue that, to
Actually RK is scum and I didn't read closely enough, vote RK

1358 implies again that HS isn't scum. Not seeing from Drone where the shift happened.

1359 Drone hasn't pinged HS??? After voting HS with an apparently watertight case, then unvoting 400 posts later with no explanation and saying 'yo this wagon sucks why does it still exist?' I don't get it. HS seems to townread people who ease up on HS.

1361 is gross from Drone.

1374 is weird, from HS. Ignoring the fact that I am a genius at persuasion, why is lynching HS (which is what 1374 is a response to) connected to my ability to convince town of my reads/whether I get NKd?

1447 HS says Drone is "eh." Eh meaning scummy but townreads HS so therefore good to keep around? Eh meaning has said nothing that might generate a read (false)? Eh meaning what?

1477 l m f a o. votes TF, either we lynch TF or Drone replaces out

Aaand then he just unvotes TF in 1632. No reason given.

I like 1702 a lot from HS.

Drone is probably scum. HS might be his scum buddy, but I doubt it just because I doubt HS is scum. For a few reasons. Couple specific questions out of the PBPA:

Why is Drone suddenly against the HS wagon starting at 1225 when he was fairly adamant about it 400 posts earlier?

What is HS' current read of Drone? In 1447 HS is "eh" regarding Drone.

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reeps is apparently negative utility PR or something. He's town but has said that we should be careful of a 'Framer' because his role doesn't 'scream town'.

Can't tell if Miller claim or just fucking scum LOL.

The fact Shadow_Step replaced creeps almost seals the deal for me. I can lynch Shadow.

If he is a miller doesn't that confirms Chaos?

VOTE: Arc

What even

you are basing your Arc vote off something Creeps said?? when is basing any decision off something Creeps said a good idea

[MortFeld]

Ok let me try to follow your train of thought.

1. Creeps (might have) claimed negative utility role. Possibly Miller.

2. Chaos claimed Cop.

3. If Creeps is telling the truth, Chaos cannot be lying.

4. Therefore, Chaos is town and Arc is scum.

I don't understand how you arrived at 3.

[MortFeld]

Sorry I misrepped your argument a bit. Let me ask another question then.

It's unlikely that both Chaos and Creeps are lying

Why can't just Chaos be lying, if Creeps is telling the truth?

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Also this is assuming that Creeps even claimed Miller, which he didn't. All he said is that 1. his role doesn't scream town, and 2. that we'd be sorry if we lynched him.

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My thinking:

If we have a Miller

, a Cop makes sense. Chaos is not lying unless

1) He noticed Creeps was claiming Miller. I did not notice it and I don't think many people did. (maybe he didn't)
2) They are both scum and fakeclaimed to complement each other

I'm assigning a low probability to (1) and (2).

3) Chaos didn't notice Creeps was claiming Miller but fakeclaimed Cop anyway because Cop is a common role in Normals.
4) Creeps didn't claim Miller (which is true) so Chaos' claim is completely unconnected to anything Creeps said.

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For the record I assign a very high probability to 4, and think 3 is probably also true.

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Yes. But

(3) doesn't the existence of a miller makes cop very likely (mod doesn't add roles randomly, I think).
(4) is easy to check. Miller is a modifier and we don't lose anything if Shadow says it is so.

Agree with your assessment of 4. But you're voting Arc now and I think your reasons are bad.

If there is a Miller - why can't Chaos be lying and there also exist another Cop?

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I said another, I meant a real Cop.

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Dude...

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Why did you unvote?

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How does 1) help you determine whether or not Chaos is lying?

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Well I'm interested in both answers. But (1) by itself helps because it eliminates some of the cases we discussed before.

No it doesn't. Here's a possible answer from Shadow: "I think Chaos is telling the truth! He is a trustworthy fellow." Which of the cases does this eliminate?

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Ok. I think it's the wrong question is all. I also don't think Miller or no Miller or Creeps has anything to do with whether Chaos is lying, but I will leave you to the inquiry and see where it takes you.

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I'm just throwing it out as an idea. I'd rather lynch Chaos, then Arc, then Drone.

Why are you lining up lynches and why do you think it's healthy for town?
You know how much the game can change?

You are reading things out of context. That was my lynch pool for today in order of preference. I feel like if you read anything I said about Arc and Chaos you'd know that lynching Chaos and then lynching Arc only makes sense if Chaos flips town - which is a scummy thing you could have picked up on, scummer.

Why is Drone suddenly against the HS wagon starting at 1225 when he was fairly adamant about it 400 posts earlier?

Cause 400 posts is a lot? And it's visible HS has done mistakes as a town lacking a bit of experience an knowledge, rather than playing as a scum mastermind

Cool, agree with this.

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I agree with the three step plan, Arc, Chaos and Drone, not sure with the order.

No this is not a 3-step plan. I repeat, no no no. Only Arc and Chaos are linked, and even that isn't 100% certain. Bah.

I think what toto said about millers is valid, if Shadow is a miller is gives Chaos' cop claim a little more validity, not enough to confirm it though

Wrong. Cop fakeclaim is just as likely whether there is a Miller or not. Having a miller makes there being a real cop more likely - but that's not what we're discussing.

@TF please please please vig drone instead, rest of town comment on this please, we might be able to convince him together

Down for one of 3 vig options: vig Drone, vig Shadow, or vig nobody.

TF I openly oppose you shooting rb. Do not do this and if you do and rb is shot and flips town I will be fucking irate and whatever rulebreaking I can accuse you of I will do so. Do not ruin my first non-newbie game any more than it's already been ruined because of your ego.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Arcangel at the very least we can force a claim at L-1.

This is L-2.

[MortFeld]

I'll gladly put that in my sig. im a shitty player cause I think lying is a scumtell.

Lots of things are scumtells, that's not what we're discussing. Using a vig shot a certain way when town directly opposes it

does

make you a shitty player. Pretty sure there are way better ways of sorting the rb slot.

[MortFeld]

Here is my claim and you all can blame yourself for this. DO YOU WANT TO KNOW WHY I AM SO SURE THAT CHAOS IS SCUM. AND HIS CLAIM IS FAKE.. I AM TOWN JAIL KEEPER.

THERE IS SO WAY WE HAVE COP, JAILKEEPER AND VIG.

ENJOY NOOB TOWNIES.

Yep, thought something like this might be the case.

So now nobody can say "We're not lynching a claimed Cop day 1" and simultaneously also want to lynch a claimed Jailkeeper.

If exactly one person is lying between Chaos and Arc it's going to be Chaos. That I am pretty sure of.

If we don't want to lynch either we lynch Drone.

UNVOTE: for now.

I am at L2. Well played Scum

Nah. You did this to yourself by verbally giving up. It's absurd to expect people to believe 100% that Chaos is lying without the information you have. Look at the people on your wagon. Do you think they are scum? rb and Naomi might be but they shouldn't be top scum reads. This is not scum's doing, you caused this.

This day is an absolute mess.
@toto, having flashbacks?

Didn't town win that game?

Pedit: hell yeah Wee-bey gif

[MortFeld]

VOTE: ArcAngel9
I'll explain my read change soon

This is important now that you're voting Chaos.

[MortFeld]

This day is an absolute mess.

Someone remind me why RK claimed VT?

Don't remember. Was it when she was at L-1?

[MortFeld]

Yep, thought something like this might be the case.

Why did you think something like this might be the case?

Because Arc would have to either actually be a PR like jailkeeper, or fakeclaim one as scum, to be as certain as she was that Chaos in lying.

RK was definitely at L-1.

Have work now but will be done in 6 hours to work out what to do.

Vote Chaos or Drone.

[MortFeld]

you are very impatient. there are better lynches today, and we can work on it tomorrow.

[MortFeld]

scum will kill TF tonight, can't do detailed explanation why right now but I think TF dies whether or not one of Chaos/Arc is lying.

[MortFeld]

Ah, scum might not kill TF tonight. If both Chaos and Arc are telling the truth it's actually optimal to kill one of them.

Which is why I think we should lynch Chaos today so we aren't stuck lynching the survivor tomorrow.

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I don't think rb's had a shining entrance but I also think your glaring confbias doesn't help convince anyone that he's a good vig shot

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never thought I'd have to blacklist someone after my first non-newbie

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Not interacting with this from TF. Will interact with the game when work is over.

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I prefer a Drone lynch to a Naomi lynch

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No, it isn't impossible to have all those as townreads, but it's pretty impossible to have Arc and Chaos on the same team I think.

Why do you want to lynch a cop? We don't need to do Scum's work for them. If he is town scum will kill him.

The thing is scum will kill town PRs so we don't really need to Lynch them. If they don't die we know they are scum.

I get that this is true in a general theory sense, but this game when we have 3 claims scum can just kill TF and leave us in the same spot tomorrow. Though it's not optimal to kill TF in some cases they might just do it anyway for the WIFOM.

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this player list is officially the worst list i ever played it.

Every body is a different type. Not even one on agreeing with the other.

that's because we've had 6 replacements and like 6 new people

No, it isn't impossible to have all those as townreads, but it's pretty impossible to have Arc and Chaos on the same team I think.

Why do you want to lynch a cop? We don't need to do Scum's work for them. If he is town scum will kill him.

The thing is scum will kill town PRs so we don't really need to Lynch them. If they don't die we know they are scum.

I get that this is true in a general theory sense, but this game when we have 3 claims scum can just kill TF and leave us in the same spot tomorrow. Though it's not optimal to kill TF in some cases they might just do it anyway for the WIFOM.

Only way scum kills me is if my reads are right. You don't think they are so I shouldn't be a threat to scum from
Your pov. From your pov I'm helping scum out if I shoot rb

this is wrong, I really want to do a more detailed analysis but can't until later today.

[MortFeld]

if your shot fails... the fact that you even consider this a possibility means that you shouldn't shoot rb

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why are we lynching Naomi instead of Drone

VOTE: Drone

[MortFeld]

I want to kill Chaos but I don't think it's going to happen. join me on drone pls HS

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Whats the case on Drone?

See 1563 and 1945, I wish I could present a more put-together case right now but I'm at work. Just overall scummy sounding posts and complete lack of justification/very slim justification for actions

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I'll switch to drone if we need that for insta.

Ok good, makes me feel less uneasy.

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Arc people aren't going to lynch Chaos. I've accepted it and you should too.

Vote for Drone please?

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Or the fact that real cop might claim tomorrow.

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Do you think I'm happy with how Arc is acting?

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Arc can you please vote Drone before you go

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Arc can you please vote Drone before you go

If we decide to mislynch. Why not lynch me instead? I don't know if Drone is scum and my vote either remains on confirmed scum or I ll rather vote myself

This makes no sense. Why would you rather lynch confirmed jailkeeper than Drone

[MortFeld]

Arc stop engaging the back and forth and try to work this out with me. If TF is as insufferable as you seem to think can you please just ignore him for now

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Arc can you please vote Drone before you go

If we decide to mislynch. Why not lynch me instead? I don't know if Drone is scum and my vote either remains on confirmed scum or I ll rather vote myself

This makes no sense. Why would you rather lynch confirmed jailkeeper than Drone

When you guys are not lynching confirmed scum, rather lynch the obvious night kill.

Stop hyperbolizing for a second. There are 3 scum. Even if you think Chaos is 100% scum, there are two others. Why not try to find them?

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Its doesn't matter. This town is lost with hopeless players like TF in it.


Scum will kill me tonight. Good bye all. I now officially give up chasing Chaos wagon.

What makes you think your so high and mighty that the reds would single you out above the rest of town.

Because she claimed Jailkeeper.

[MortFeld]

I don't understand why someone would say "Either I vote to lynch x or I vote to lynch nobody" when there are 3 scum

[MortFeld]

I don't understand why someone would say "Either I vote to lynch x or I vote to lynch nobody" when there are 3 scum

Try this.


I am frustrated and angry with derp town. That's all I can say. Chaos is scum and my vote is there where it needs to be. Rest is up to you.

Try this. Play the game. Don't replace into my first non-newbie and fuck it up by refusing to think critically. Other people playing poorly shouldn't prevent you from compromising on your vote and if it does, you are either bad or scum.

[MortFeld]

Vote Drone please

[MortFeld]

Its doesn't matter. This town is lost with hopeless players like TF in it.


Scum will kill me tonight. Good bye all. I now officially give up chasing Chaos wagon.

Its doesn't matter. This town is lost with hopeless players like TF in it.


Scum will kill me tonight. Good bye all. I now officially give up chasing Chaos wagon.

What makes you think your so high and mighty that the reds would single you out above the rest of town.

Because she claimed Jailkeeper.

well we have multiple claimed roles. and people dislike her, why would the reds lower our level of discord?

Going to explain in a bit. Pretty sure TF is dying tonight but it could be Arc.

[MortFeld]

Wait, let me check something before I run through possibilities. Isn't jailkeeper not a viable role to fakeclaim? Cop can claim town alignment on anyone but only scum will lie about being jailed.

[MortFeld]

No what I'm asking is something specific.

scum!Chaos fakeclaims Cop. Survives night 1. Day 2 town says, "Hey Chaos, what were your results?" He says "X is town." There is no way to disprove this. He can say it about a townie or a scummer. No conclusive proof that he is lying, and no associations once he flips.

scum!Arc fakeclaims Jailkeeper. Survives night 1. Day 2 town says, "Hey Arc, who did you jail?" She says "I jailed X." If X says yeah, Arc jailed me, X is confirmed scum once Arc flips. If X says no, I wasn't jailed, Arc is confirmed scum.

I'm asking if this analysis is correct, because if it is, it's impossible to fakeclaim Jailkeeper.

[MortFeld]

Oh ok, thanks.

[MortFeld]

There are three people whose alignments matter: Chaos, Arc, and TF. If any of these are town, scum will want to kill them.

Spoiler: brute force math

1)

Ct At Tt

Unlikely. Anyone could die in this case. Probably Chaos, though scum might kill TF to engineer a false 2) or 6).

2)

Cs At Tt

Chaos lives to day 2. If Arc is killed, Chaos is pretty much guaranteed dead. If TF is killed, we still have to debate between Chaos and Arc. Chaos has potential to live another day. TF dies.

3)

Cs As Tt

Not possible in any reasonable world.

4)

Cs At Ts

Arc dies.

5)

Cs As Ts

Also not possible.

6)

Ct As Tt

Arc lives to day 2. If Chaos is killed, Arc is probably dead. If TF is killed, we still have to debate between Chaos and Arc. Arc has potential to live another day. TF dies.

7)

Ct As Ts

Chaos dies.

8)

Ct At Ts

One of Chaos/Arc live to day 2. Probably Arc. The one who isn't dead is a good lynch candidate. This... would be very good for TF.

TF dies in 2) and 6). Chaos dies in 7). Arc dies in 4). 1) and 8) don't help us resolve anything but I think they are unlikely. 3) and 5) are nearly completely impossible.

So of 4 reasonable possibilities TF dies in 2. Which is why I said he's probably dead.

This math is also why I think it's correct to lynch one of Chaos or Arc today. Not doing so allows 1) 2) and 6) where TF is killed and we end up lynching Chaos or Arc tomorrow, allowing scum 2 PRs. If we lynch Chaos or Arc today we go into tomorrow up information compared to if we lynch someone else. This is only a bad strategy if 1) or 8) are the case.

If this is objectionable I think we really should lynch Drone.

[MortFeld]

What do you think about the idea that lynching Chaos or Arc today is better than not doing so and having to do so tomorrow?

[MortFeld]

Confirmation bias is being unable to see the possibility that this person is town because you are so certain of the scum case. Which normally wouldn't matter but you have a gun. You are not voting them, you are planning to shoot them.

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town!Wobbu is new and not good at the game and either thought you were scum and tried to manufacture a case using his limited ability, was incapable of reading the game and so genuinely misread, or sheeped sentiments from others and morphed them into statements that are factually inaccurate but accordant with some people's general feelings.

I think the latter is most likely if Wobbu was town. It is completely reasonable that a new player confuse "many people think this person is toxic and should be removed from the game" with "this person is aligned with scum." Similarly, "this person has tunneled too far into a pointless topic" with "this person doesn't justify their reads" etc.

I'm not willing to discuss Copper here. You have a loose definition of 'lie' which encompasses things I do not think are scum tells.

Pedit: I'm going to try, rb, because I think his level of certainty is not reasonable and, were it held by a rational person, would be capable of being abated.

I thought Wobbu was scummy but I don't think rb has been terrible. I also think the scum case against Wobbu is equivalent in character to that against TB, so I don't see why you're not planning on shooting Arc.

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can someone go back and check a thing for me? was it HS who interpreted TF as being vig and announced it, or did TF himself drop a vig claim? this is important

This is the original post TF made.

yeah scum want me gone today so good idea to lynch me before I can take one of them out

Then HS asked if he was claiming vig like 3 times. TF responds with

It's you or me.

That claim puzzles me.

TwoFace, please confirm, are you claiming vig?

role fishing noted

Which is fucking l o l.

So in answer to your question, it's nebulous. I'd pretty much call what TF said in 647 a vig soft claim.

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I think TF made a harder soft claim later but I can't find where. Just got home from a long bike ride so if nobody else finds it I'll look later.

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I don't think we need to worry about TF right now? If he isn't nightkilled within a few nights and doesn't shoot anyone he's probably scum. And we probably don't reach the point where it matters for a while.

im so paranoid about Mort scum rn and if he's scum i'm nominating for a scummy because he's literally done not a single scummy thing in this entire game, but i'm not willing to go down the 'too town to be town' route yet

mort can u like naked vote some obvtown slot and say some rly stupid anti-town shit so i can feel better about ur slot being human and not some supergod scum player? thanks

uh... I'm just playing as best I can. I don't know what to make of this.

[MortFeld]

That reads like weird buddying/possibly shade throwing? I've never seen a comment like that in any of the games I've read.

[MortFeld]

Let's delve into your iso that mort thinks is so good.

I will eat a shoe if you can find a quote where I said I think rb's ISO is anything resembling "so good."

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I'll repeat that I'd rather sort TF later. We only have a day left so I would like to lynch Drone now because anything else will likely result in no lynch.

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RK was the one I wasn't sure of.

Aside from Road, his current lynch pool looks reasonable, if a little... weak?

[MortFeld]

I'd much rather someone replace in with an rb-type entrance than an RK-type entrance.

[MortFeld]

hi chaos, ive heard from a fairy that ur a good town player

please return here at your earliest convenience to form a townblock with mort, HS and myself so we can start to Murdercock™ some scumfucks

Chaos has not been a good town player this game. If he lives to tomorrow I don't trust him enough to form a townblock. I don't trust you enough either, honestly.

[MortFeld]

1576 - says his list is reasonsbale.

1727 - says he disagrees with his list.

How did that happen?

Hm I remember the lynch pool differently. You're right, it's pretty reasonable. Makes me not like Arc even more.

Reason I remembered it wrong? Probably because it was a very safe pool full of 3 replacements and Drone. Doesn't make the lynch pool bad, and doesn't make me scummy for remembering wrong. Why are you reaching like this?

RK was the one I wasn't sure of.

Road needs rope. Give their interactions with me an honest read and tell me they aren't Red.

Yeah you were unsure of road. My apolo...

Oh wait. Want to try again?

Oh lordy. It's like you didn't read my conversation with Road at all and just picked out a quote from when I wanted to lynch her.

[MortFeld]

Am I living in a different universe? Where's the lie?

being unsure about reads isn't a scumtell

But but you said this

constantly voting and unvoting it - that's a scumtell imo be

Sorry You can't have it both ways.

Here's the supposed inconsistency. How is this an inconsistency anyway?

when MANY people vote and unvote the same slot multiple times and feel 'off' about a slot it's a scumtell

do you see like 7+ ppl all voting and unvoting mort?

Many people didn't vote and unvote me multiple times.

Pretty sure drone and your slot are the only ones to do that.

Then you somehow apply this scumtell to yourself when rb didn't even do that. wtf?

So either way I take no issue. Bring on the Road votes.

Or this?

Would you be pushing for a lynch on somebody you're not sure of?

Do you understand that time moves linearly? Or are you a temporally unfixed being who believes all others are likewise floating in time?

Dude. I read Road hard scum when she was voting me for a shitty reason not reading and doing a bunch of other scummy things. Then she explained, unvoted, and this read more town. At the point where I commented on Chaos' lynch pool, I was unsure about Road and saw her as low priority. What the fuck is so odd about this?

[MortFeld]

Then you somehow apply this scumtell to yourself when rb didn't even do that. wtf?

Oh, I missed it. He did apply the scumtell to you. This is where your weird definition of "lie" comes in. Saying that 2 people is a lot of people is not a lie and is not a scumtell.

[MortFeld]

This is like conversations with Thor except somehow even more focused on minutia and much, much less rational.

Am I living in a different universe? Where's the lie?

He said multiple people voted and unvoted me multiple times. Only 2 people did.

2 is multiple. You're not even arguing it's a misrep anymore.

[MortFeld]

Sorry he said many not multiple. That post he made was garbage.

It's garbage because he said many people voted and unvoted when only 2 did?

[MortFeld]

Sorry he said many not multiple. That post he made was garbage.

9. voting and unvoting isn't suspicious in and of itself, but when

multiple

slots vote and unvote one particular slot it is.

??? you are not allowed to accuse anyone else of misrepping like jfc

that's a scumtell imo because it's indicative both of partners distancing and/or multiple people just disliking the slot and/or finding it scummy.

Let's look at this post with a magnifying glass now.

He's literally saying it's a scumtell because of every possible reason there is to vote somebody? (Well he left off the actual reason why people voted me)


Ugh I get y'all are blinded but this is a horrible post by him

Not seeing your point. He's saying when multiple slots vote and unvote a single slot, it is often a scumtell. Why are the reasons stated for voting and unvoting relevant? Especially when reasons for voting are "policy lynch because he's toxic" and reasons for unvoting are "oh he softclaimed." These are not even things scum have to make up.

[MortFeld]

TF can you please vote Drone instead of rb? We can work out rb tomorrow. If you find a Drone lynch objectionable for whatever reason you could suggest a compromise and we could work toward that. I am not voting rb. Nobody else is voting rb. You are being a BAD TOWN PLAYER by refusing to vote anyone else. This is the exact thing you have been pressing Arc about.

[MortFeld]

Did you read my explanation of why TF probably dies tonight? Of the 4 reasonable possibilities of PR combinations he dies in 2 where Arc and Drone die in 1 each. Also the combination I feel is most likely results in TF dying. You saying I know stuff is annoying. If you flip town, don't throw shade like that.

You're acting like your part in the RK wagon wasn't scummy. Did you read 1945?

[MortFeld]

I just read the 5 pages I missed. I wish I hadn't. I will have more to say about this after the game.

Does the reason you won't talk about it now have to do with TF?

[MortFeld]

I'm aware you answered my specific question in 1945. There was a lot more in there...

So. What's the case this time? Those posts on Kamelot again?

You asked what the case was, so I asked if you read 1945.

Arc is going to jk him tonight, you understand how meaningless TF is? We have a pr that we will all know will cause more trouble than help.

I didn't consider that Arc could jk TF, but I was saying TF was going to be killed in response to something HS said.

I don't think you're the right lynch today, I think it's Chaos, but it was made very clear that Chaos isn't happening.

Would you have a counterwagon to propose?

[MortFeld]

You've been so busy throwing fingers of suspicion and switching wagons that, you were completely unaware I already answered that.

Not an accurate characterization of what I've been doing since 1945 at all. Take off the rose-colored glasses.

[MortFeld]

Wow, TIL I've been using that expression wrong my whole life. Take off the, uh, murky gray-colored glasses.

[MortFeld]

Lel. A better wagon?
I would have purposed you since lining up lynches is not something I'd find towny.. But we both know it ain't happening.
I'd like to wagon Toto.
Can we?

I didn't line up lynches. I already responded to this allegation. You're either not reading the game or you're ignoring that on purpose.

Am I scum because I have prior knowledge? Because I'm lining up lynches? Because I'm hopping around wagons and tossing FoS or whatever you accused me of in 2266? None of these are even true. This is why I'm annoyed, I don't care if people are suspicious of me but I do if it's for false reasons.

Nah, we can talk about Toto if you flip town.

[MortFeld]

But that's what are you doing, along with useful content, reads and interpretations.
You can say that saying "lets lynch x, y and then z" is not lining up lynches. It's plain and simple, and it doesn't matter whether or not you have a good reason for that.
The turn of events just might turn the tables around and leave you prodding in the dark.
You'd want to avoid that.

I was giving my lynch pool in order of preference. I said this in 1997. Stop saying I was lining up lynches.

As for the prior knowledge. Meh didn't say that.
But, the saying "scum will kill TF", while you know who TF is, makes no sense.

Yes you did.

Mort knows stuff.

You're telling me that this isn't saying I have prior knowledge?
And I don't understand what you're saying about me and TF.

And yes, you are the most aggressive player here in terms of theory. Face it man, it's how it is.

Never said I wasn't. Being aggressive is not the same as hopping on wagons indiscriminately. Also, I've pretty much followed my lynch pool in order of preference exactly. You didn't accuse me of being aggressive anyway (is being aggressive a scumtell?), you accused me of hopping from wagon to wagon.

Now why would you ask about my opinion if you just disregard it?
Let me guess, you are annoyed with me and prefer to lynch me now over that.

If you had an actual case on someone I was going to consider it. Poking at a single post of Toto's is not going to convince anyone and the fact that it convinces you is ridiculous.

[MortFeld]

Very curious to see how Drone backs up his false assertions.

[MortFeld]

@Mort
The whole knows stuff was cynicism, to point out you make no sense.

I literally laid out every possibility of PRs telling the truth or not, and TF died in more cases than Arc or Chaos did. You can disagree with my methodology but not accuse me of not making sense.

Aggressive play actually is something I find scummy. Town take more time.. You can know, thinking things through and such?

And some people say that caution is a scumtell. But people have their own scumtells.

I've thought things through more than anyone in this game though.

And here's the biggest difference between you and me, you weave and create cases to keep things moving.
I just them pick up, they're never hidden forever.

Platitude? You don't even read the game.

[MortFeld]

Not completely, as you see, I know what's going on. Pretty much.

What are you responding to?

[MortFeld]

Great. Drone, don't talk down to me. Very good way to piss me off and very bad way to scumhunt.

[MortFeld]

Very curious to see how Drone backs up his false assertions.

It's clearly a waste of time, won't take long before I'm getting hammered anyway.
You, as the one doing it, are completely unaware of this perhaps. That's something you'd want to patch.

What does this mean?

[MortFeld]

Ok we should talk about it after the game.

[MortFeld]

Yeah, I have growing feeling that this going to flip green.

Then why did you hammer?

I think I'm still blinded a bit by Drone's obtuse lack of clarity and bad arguments, but I think this is flipping scum.

[MortFeld]

Everything in twilight looks town to me. Everything before does not.

[MortFeld]

I'm out of the house for all of today so I'll be reading but not posting too much.

I investigated Toto. They're scum.

VOTE: Toto

LIAR LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE.

I JAILED TOTO LAST NIGHT. NOW PLEASE FOLLOW ME TO LYNCH THE 100% CONFIRMED SCUM.

VOTE: ChaosOmega

This means that Chaos was correct, and Toto is scum.

[MortFeld]

Didn't TF shoot HS? Sorry, I just saw people were talking about that and didn't know if he said that.

[MortFeld]

Oh I see. I probably should have read role descriptions for the roles in this game.

So if we lynch Chaos and he flips town we just lynch Arc tomorrow, right?

[MortFeld]

I did read that Chaos said he had a guilty on Toto, I didn't know JK blocked investigative roles.

[MortFeld]

How did that cop claim go un fucking CCed then?

cause you don't cc day 1

And we might not have a cop. Though with strongman it's probably pretty likely.

[MortFeld]

Jesus christ it's like preschool again

I'm going to wait for mod confirmation.

[MortFeld]

Oh wait, Arc is wrong.

[MortFeld]

So we lynch Toto. But we can do the work today to figure out who the third scum is.

[MortFeld]

To expand on the fair vote comment - I agree that scum might play the way I am playing, inadvertently. Perhaps my reads list would help you believe I do have an idea of how the game is progressing?

I'm working with:

{

Creeps, Toto, Drone, LUV, TF

}
{Chaos, Naomi, Nero}
{

Road, TB

}
{

Wobbu, HS

}

Pedit: Yes... Road asking for a tl;dr was the reason I posted the reads list. You said that the Misa slot was AFK at the time I posted that, which is not true. I didn't say that asking for the list was my reason for SRing the Misa slot - those reasons were explained in the post.

Mort, can you explain why you had two scum so high up in your reads at this point?

You want me to explain what my thought process was at the time of post 993? I don't remember. I think I made that list with the assumption that HS was scum.

[MortFeld]

To expand on the fair vote comment - I agree that scum might play the way I am playing, inadvertently. Perhaps my reads list would help you believe I do have an idea of how the game is progressing?

I'm working with:

{

Creeps, Toto, Drone, LUV, TF

}
{Chaos, Naomi, Nero}
{

Road, TB

}
{

Wobbu, HS

}

Pedit: Yes... Road asking for a tl;dr was the reason I posted the reads list. You said that the Misa slot was AFK at the time I posted that, which is not true. I didn't say that asking for the list was my reason for SRing the Misa slot - those reasons were explained in the post.

Mort, can you explain why you had two scum so high up in your reads at this point?

You want me to explain what my thought process was at the time of post 993? I don't remember. I think I made that list with the assumption that HS was scum.

But they weren't null, they were town reads. So you can't remember why you town read either of them, even with the assumption that HS is scum?

Toto was helping with the HS push and did some of the legwork.

Drone I don't remember. A bit of confbias in the way of my eyes.

[MortFeld]

Why are you worried about my reads in 993 Chaos? As far as I'm concerned I'm conftown at this point unless you think I was willing to help lead the lynch of the mafia Strongman.

[MortFeld]

Why are you worried about my reads in 993 Chaos? As far as you're concerned I should be conftown at this point unless you think I was willing to help lead the lynch of the mafia Strongman.

EBWOP

[MortFeld]

What would massclaim accomplish?

[MortFeld]

I don't see why the massclaim has to be today. If it's a good idea, it is just as valuable tomorrow since we're lynching scum today.

[MortFeld]

I don't see why the massclaim has to be today. If it's a good idea, it is just as valuable tomorrow since we're lynching scum today.

exactly

Personally? I don't see the point in holding back at this stage. we are down to the last red and most roles are in the open

We hold back until tomorrow. Massclaim right now is just dumb if there are more PRs. We don't need that information today to secure a lynch - we already have confirmed scum. But scum could use role info to their advantage potentially. There's just literally no reason to massclaim today instead of tomorrow.

[MortFeld]

That's all the claims I think, unless you consider Creeps to have soft claimed.

Pedit: that was Creeps and I have no idea because Creeps' mind is uniquely indecipherable.

[MortFeld]

Vig Nero, Jk rb and Cop check on Mort please

I'm fine with this if it stops us wasting time MLing me.

[MortFeld]

Should I claim the amount of shots I have left?

Yes.

[MortFeld]

happy scum day btw mort

What does this mean?

[MortFeld]

And yeah rb claimed VT.

[MortFeld]

Lmao if this game sets any sort of record... either way it's going down in the history books for sure.

[MortFeld]

Oh, I see. My scum day was yesterday for me, we must be in different time zones. But thanks! Crazy that almost a year went by before I wanted to play again.

[MortFeld]

I don't see why VTs are excluded from the pool for Cop checks. Specifically Naomi and RK since I am pretty sure rb is town after rereading day 1.

[MortFeld]

Oh, I see. My scum day was yesterday for me, we must be in different time zones. But thanks! Crazy that almost a year went by before I wanted to play again.

I havn't been red since my two year gap where I stopped playing XD I don't even know my red meta and thats scary XD I have no idea what I'll do next time im red.

On the other forum I play in I've been red in 5/7 games. I'm only starting to learn about my green play now.

Why shouldn't Chaos claim his shots? The only reason you'd want him to avoid doing so is if you have no doubt that he is actually Cop.

[MortFeld]

I don't see why VTs are excluded from the pool for Cop checks. Specifically Naomi and RK since I am pretty sure rb is town after rereading day 1.

Yeah I was thinking of asking to be vig shot N3 if nero didn't flip so I couldn't be used to miss lynch D4. But im cool with being copped too in fact. I'd like to ask for;

Vig Nero
Cop myself
JK RB

I'd prefer cop RK to cop you. RK is a more likely mislynch if they're town.

[MortFeld]

Why are we jailing rb? rb is town

[MortFeld]

LUV is town too. We should jk/cop Naomi and RK, doesn't matter which order.

[MortFeld]

Wait, why not jk/cop Shadow? I'm not sure at all about his alignment.

[MortFeld]

I think it's pretty reasonable to put your buddies as your top scumreads, yes, especially when you don't vote. I don't see you leading a lynch...

I did just check your ISO and I forgot that you stated intent to vote Drone if necessary, which would be very dumb at that point if Drone was your buddy. So yeah cop/jk Naomi and RK.

[MortFeld]

Oh yeah you also said HS was town during the HS wagon. You're probably town.

[MortFeld]

Oh you also voted Drone. My memory is terrible

[MortFeld]

SS is town.

[MortFeld]

Seriously? Lol
Do you think I would have put two of my buddies and lead the lynch on them day 1 while derailing the HS wagon?

who's lynch did you lead day 1? certainly not drone cause you joined that wagon late if i recall correctly

He stated intent to vote Drone if his vote was needed pretty early. I don't consider that leading the lynch but it is something.

[MortFeld]

It doesn't matter, shadow is town regardless of how you define leading a lynch

[MortFeld]

I forgot who but someone made a point about Nero not caring about looking town and I can't help but feel that might be the case here. I'm going to try to look back and see if I can find who said it because I think that's who I think the cop and the JK should target. Naomi is a good target as well, she hasn't really done much all game.

RK said that about Nero not caring about looking town.

Current plan we're discussing is to vig Nero, cop/jk two people in {Naomi, RK, LUV}. rb might be in that pool but I am pretty sure he is town. I think you're town too with a little less certainty.

[MortFeld]

Is that L-1?

[MortFeld]

No it's L-2, missed VC.

VOTE: Toto

That's L-1.

[MortFeld]

Sorry for having such a long fucking ISO. Hope it's a good read.

[MortFeld]

There's a lot of conf-bias here. Very disappointing. You'll feel sorry when I flip.

No we won't. We'll just lynch Chaos if you flip town.

[MortFeld]

I really remember you when you drank my wine

If only.

[MortFeld]

VOTE: Nero

Will not be very active today's IRL day.

[MortFeld]

Why would scum choose to kill a VIG when they could kill COP?

Would you guys believe my theory on Chaos being scum and baiting Toto to win town-cred?

I don't know if it's necessary to consider this yet, but I am keeping it in mind for later. Hard bussing when you lost a buddy Day 1 and you just had a nightkill prevented feels off.

[MortFeld]

Why would scum choose to kill a VIG when they could kill COP?

Would you guys believe my theory on Chaos being scum and baiting Toto to win town-cred?

I don't know if it's necessary to consider this yet, but I am keeping it in mind for later. Hard bussing when you lost a buddy Day 1 and you just had a nightkill prevented feels off.

Oh, not necessarily. scum!Chaos would know that Arc JKd Toto so he definitely could have outed Toto preemptively, knowing Arc would out Toto eventually.

[MortFeld]

Annoyed that town consensus on PR usage was very obviously ignored.

[MortFeld]

Arc's theory is reasonable but it supports a Chaos lynch way later down the road, not today.

Chaos, I want to know who you targeted. I see no reason to keep this secret. I see only scum motivation to not tell us this in your first post.

[MortFeld]

Arc's theory is reasonable but it supports a Chaos lynch way later down the road, not today.

Chaos, I want to know who you targeted. I see no reason to keep this secret. I see only scum motivation to not tell us this in your first post.

Why do you think its reasonable that Red!Chaos killed TF over Arc.

Not sure. I don't think Chaos is actually scum. But I do think he should tell us who he targeted, and I see no town motivation not to. I know he's V/LA, I said I don't understand why it wasn't in his first post and I'll be expecting it when he comes back.

[MortFeld]

Is odd night cop a thing?

I'm starting to see potential town motivations for Chaos not to tell us who he targeted. I'm fine with his decision for now.

[MortFeld]

I am using my head. we have a one shot Pr. a Jailer and what i'm guessing is an Odd night cop. VS 3 Reds and one strongman user. So one mafia that negates Jailor protection. which means the game would be red tilted. we was lucky with the D1 lynch and D2 lynch but this whole not killing nero thing is just urgh >_<

Why are you keep guessing that Chaos is limited or Odd night cop.

Didn't see what Mort indicating as well. Chaos is not revealing who he has targetted in his first post make no sense. He knows how to play this game. Day 2 he came back and confirmed his result with a name but Day 3 he comes back with no information and doesn't even reveal who he has targetted.

doesn't it lead you to any suspicion?

Of course it does. But if he's some sort of limited Cop, it makes sense to not tell the scum exactly what his limitations are, right?

[MortFeld]

^ This is actually a question. I don't know a lot of the theory surrounding PRs.

[MortFeld]

I knew he could be odd night cop or have a non consecutive modifier. Which is why I was shush about it you guys just love giving info to scum.

[WIFOM] Obviously if he's scum he could be using this to prevent himself from being backed into a corner with results.

[MortFeld]

I knew he could be odd night cop or have a non consecutive modifier. Which is why I was shush about it you guys just love giving info to scum.

[WIFOM] Obviously if he's scum he could be using this to prevent himself from being backed into a corner with results.

Is that WIFOM? In FGs we'd just call it yomi.

^ This is actually a question. I don't know a lot of the theory surrounding PRs.

I don't disagree. It's a good bet but there is something i don't feel good about this.

Anyway, I suggest we go "No Lynch" today so that we don't lynch a townie. what do you think?

I will have Chaos confirmed tomorrow. If Chaos is not scum, I won't survive tonight.

You're not surviving tonight anyway. We should lynch someone.

Today we lynch nero. and jail myself (allowing the cop to get one use out if he is like I expect odd night) then D4 we can have 2 more confirmed if we don't win on the nero thing. It would mean that the next night (when the cop doesn't get an action) we can jail them to make sure im right and at that stage we will be down to the people I've eliminated or most people have (mort, Misa, Cooper and there replacements)

Jail Shadow.

[MortFeld]

The only thing I confirmed Arc was nero is actively avoiding posting in the thread AKA Lurking. Which is a red tell at this stage. If we lose because everyone is too dense to kill the obvious red I will be extremely irritated at you all.

We're going to kill someone, probably Nero. Just not right at this moment before he or others can even post.

[MortFeld]

Jail Shadow? Really? What are you smoking.

I think I'm smoking post tone. Naomi's posts feel townier than Shadow's do. But Shadow can be a lynch later, sure let's jail Naomi.

[MortFeld]

Drone could have been distancing from Road but he helped take Road to L-1, and maintained Road's guilt later on... it's a very hard stance to take for a scum buddy.

[MortFeld]

This would all be solved if we jailed RK instead of rb.

[MortFeld]

Mort - you want to take a risk of lynching someone town?

You and I know very well that I won't survive tonight and I want to confirm if Chaos is really town or not.

If we go through no lynch today, On D4 you will have Chaos is confirmed town, RB confirmed town.

You will be left with Naomi, Liz, RK, Nero and yourself to know who is scum among you.

OR

If the chaos is scum, even better. the game is over. We will bag a perfect town lynch victory.

Why would no lynch today result in Chaos confirmed town? All it results in is you dead and us in the same position tomorrow. You dying or not dying doesn't confirm Chaos at all...

[MortFeld]

Arc will you jail according to town consensus?

Jail Naomi or RK please. And state which one.

This would all be solved if we jailed RK instead of rb.

How? Explain please.

We all considered rb town before last night. RK was a variable then and is still a variable. Jail targets tonight are between RK and Naomi, just like they should have been last night. You confirmed a townie we all already thought was town.

[MortFeld]

Arc, do not jail me tonight. You'll be the NK tonight, I'll be the NK N4, and they'll be no other confirmed townies. You verify someone as town even if you die tonight as long as you declare your target beforehand. If scum want to kill me to prevent my investigation, you can check two people before you die. If they kill you, I get to clear someone/find the last scum.

Accurate analysis to me. Jailing Chaos throws the game.

[MortFeld]

LUV is really good as scum as demonstrated in 1833.

I'm thinking out possibilities.

Today we lynch Nero or RK.
Tonight Arc or Chaos is targeted for nightkill. Arc jails Nero or RK, tells us who beforehand. Assume Arc dies.
7 people alive. Whoever Arc jailed is confirmed town. Lynch pool is Shadow, LUV, Mort, Naomi, Chaos. Chaos gets a result. Hopefully on LUV or Naomi. We lynch the other one.
Next night. Someone dies. I'll just assume it's Chaos.
5 people alive. Lynch pool is Shadow, LUV/Naomi, Mort. I'd lynch LUV/Naomi here but I suspect I'll end up being the lynch.
Night. rb dies.
3 people alive. LYLO. LUV/Naomi, me, Shadow. Shadow and I lynch LUV/Naomi.

So even if no investigations, jks or lynches hit scum, we still have decent shot at winning in LYLO.

That assumes Chaos is town. Hm, I just realized. Day 6 is LYLO right? So if Chaos lives until then and is scum he can deliver a guilty verdict on a townie. I was going to say that Chaos should be a PL on Day 6, but it won't matter then. So that's a little sticky.

[MortFeld]

@Naomi - Chaos didn't out Toto, Arc did. Chaos giving guilty on Toto would always happen regardless of Chaos' alignment. Once scum!Chaos saw that the nightkill failed he'd know that Arc jailed Toto, and would want to claim her alignment first.

[MortFeld]

Hm I missed something in my analysis. Disregard it, I'll do a more detailed one when I'm not in a car.

[MortFeld]

D6 is LYLO, Chaos. You being alive D6 doesn't matter, you could be scum or town then.

[MortFeld]

That is - your being alive would not be a reason to trust your investigation.

[MortFeld]

@Naomi - Chaos didn't out Toto, Arc did. Chaos giving guilty on Toto would always happen regardless of Chaos' alignment. Once scum!Chaos saw that the nightkill failed he'd know that Arc jailed Toto, and would want to claim her alignment first.

You know what fine. if your gonna chaos conspricy theory I'll give you a counter theory

It's not a conspiracy theory, it's a fact. If Chaos is scum, he would have outed Toto as soon as possible. No other option was viable.

[MortFeld]

Why shouldn't we consider things other than who to lynch today? Only Arc is saying we should lynch Chaos today, we're doing either Nero or RK.

[MortFeld]

along the same lines. if Arc was so sure that Chaos was red, why would she not jailed them? why target RB?

Why are you asking this? I was just making a point that Chaos isn't confirmed. You cannot argue that he is.

For Arc to not be confirmed, her mafia team would have to agree to no kill. This is highly abnormal and is actually a conspiracy theory. Saying that Chaos is not confirmed because he would have said Toto is scum regardless of his alignment - that is being rational.

You are not understanding. scum!Chaos was always going to say that Toto was scum. His saying that does not confirm him. Chaos is not confirmed.

I have no paranoia about Arc. If scum agreed to no kill in anticipation of this, kudos. But that didn't happen.

What im saying is; while we still have multiple viable lynch targets why look towards the people who outted a red?

Chaos didn't out a red. Also, just because we are not lynching Chaos or Arc today, doesn't mean we shouldn't look at Chaos and Arc.

Pedit: I don't care if what I'm saying is a conspiracy theory or not, I care how plausible it is. It is not true that Chaos is confirmed. scum!Chaos is extremely plausible. It is much less plausible that scum agreed to no kill.

[MortFeld]

I am going to ignore discussions with Naomi. this player officially doesn't understand the concept of team play. She is narrow minded and only want to cling on to her style.

I'm fine with you confirming Naomi tonight. Confirm one of Naomi/Nero/RK.

Alright, there are 9 people in this game:

1 confirmed town (rb)
2 claimed PRs (Arc, Chaos)
6 others

Of the 6 others, we lynch one today, investigate one tonight, and jail one tonight. 3 others, 7 alive D4. Presumably, Arc is dead at this point. We lynch the 3 others D4, D5, D6, and that's the game. If I am alive D6, I get added to the other pool, but I get another investigation to clear another player. If Arc is kept alive to D6, she clears so many people it's not funny.

If the last scum wants to concede and end this shitshow of a game, I don't blame you.

Why would scum kill me when you are the ODD COP. It's more dangerous for the scum if they let you live at this point.

Or if you survive the night. This team should lynch you. If not. GG scum.

No, Arc you are literally confirming townies every night. You are a cop that everyone knows is telling the truth. Your role at this point is way more powerful than his is.

[MortFeld]

I wanted to know Chaos motive when he says i am as good as dead. How does scum know that Chaos won't target them?

I am still stuck thinking that Chaos is playing us all this while. He is a capable player. I see these things happen in mafia scum.

Scum are in an even worse if you target them because they miss a NK and everyone knows you're telling the truth.

If Chaos returns a guilty on someone we will lynch them that day and lynch Chaos the next if they flip town. The problem is that if Chaos returns an inno tomorrow, his next guilty won't happen until LYLO. So scum have motive to keep Chaos alive if he's actually cop.

[MortFeld]

along the same lines. if Arc was so sure that Chaos was red, why would she not jailed them? why target RB?

Why are you asking this? I was just making a point that Chaos isn't confirmed. You cannot argue that he is.

For Arc to not be confirmed, her mafia team would have to agree to no kill. This is highly abnormal and is actually a conspiracy theory. Saying that Chaos is not confirmed because he would have said Toto is scum regardless of his alignment - that is being rational.

You are not understanding. scum!Chaos was always going to say that Toto was scum. His saying that does not confirm him. Chaos is not confirmed.

I have no paranoia about Arc. If scum agreed to no kill in anticipation of this, kudos. But that didn't happen.

What im saying is; while we still have multiple viable lynch targets why look towards the people who outted a red?

Chaos didn't out a red. Also, just because we are not lynching Chaos or Arc today, doesn't mean we shouldn't look at Chaos and Arc.

Pedit: I don't care if what I'm saying is a conspiracy theory or not, I care how plausible it is. It is not true that Chaos is confirmed. scum!Chaos is extremely plausible. It is much less plausible that scum agreed to no kill.

So what your saying is; It is more likely reds would allow one of there own to be killed to get a confirm. rather than getting a no kill result to confirm?

Cause without That Cop positive Toto would just be confirmed as either the target or the killer. So it could been span either way.

I didn't think about this. scum!Chaos could have easily returned an inno on someone else, and simultaneously kept Toto alive by saying she must have been the target. So scum!Chaos is based on Chaos gambiting on a hard bus of Toto - a conspiracy theory not worth considering until LYLO.

Thanks for explaining.

Pedit: Jail one of RK, Nero, and Naomi please. In order of my preference. I'd rather we lynch Nero today, but if you really think he's town we can lynch RK today and confirm Nero tonight.

Pedit2: you want to jail unhelpful people. These are people who will survive until LYLO and be mislynched. They are the ones who need to be confirmed.

[MortFeld]

LUV confirm has fewer benefits. I think he's town. He's a better lynch on day 5 than a JK target IMO.

Least town to most for me is:

Nero
RK
Shadow
Naomi
LUV

I'm actually very wishy-washy about Shadow. I sense drive to solve the game but his day 1 was bad, aside from statement of intent to lynch Drone.

[MortFeld]

Hm, Naomi's list and mine pretty much match up. I think that's good?

[MortFeld]

You also voted me a lot.

[MortFeld]

Yeah I was just saying we don't agree on everything.

Today is Thanksgiving, it's tomorrow when I'll be worried about lurking.

[MortFeld]

He's posted elsewhere on the forum today?

[MortFeld]

It says the last time he posted on the forum was yesterday, about 14 hours ago. Which was during night.

[MortFeld]

I think he's the most likely scum, and I think he definitely has avoided making associations this game. I just don't think we can conclude with certainty that he's avoiding the game today, it being Thanksgiving and all.

[MortFeld]

I'll look through his ISO tomorrow for more clues. Even if Arc doesn't want a Nero lynch we can still push it through, if he's the most likely scum. But we have time.

[MortFeld]

I see. So the case is that he did

something

at night, otherwise he'd be prodded by the mod.

Can anyone else attest to the accuracy of this? Is it certain that Nero did something at night, or is there another explanation?

We need a Nero claim.

[MortFeld]

I'm also a vanilla townie.

So either
1. This is a lie
2. Key messed up or
3. Prods don't work the way I think they do.

[MortFeld]

night time doesn't count for prod timers b/c one can not post in the thread.

? I feel like that's something Naomi would know.

The time between Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:21 am and night start at Sun Nov 20, 2016 4:52 am was 17 hours and 21 minutes. The time between Day 2 start at Tue Nov 22, 2016 4:55 am and Day 2 end at Tue Nov 22, 2016 9:58 am was 5 hours and 3 minutes. This equates to less than 24 hours, given that prod is 48 Nero would not need a prod.

That was an odd argument that Naomi made. Nero missing Day 2 is also NAI for me since Day 2 lasted 5 hours in the morning.

[MortFeld]

Nah Nero that argument is moot. I think you're scum for other reasons, you won't be lynched before I explain them.

Naomi isn't that new, seems like she's played in a sizable number of games dating back pretty far?

[MortFeld]

I'm almost to my grandparents' house where I will endure Thanksgiving dinner so we'll talk tomorrow.

For everyone else I'd appreciate full use of the day, we are very ahead but not so ahead that we can't lose.

I'm not set on you. RK is a compromise. I'd rather just confirm Naomi using Arc tonight.

[MortFeld]

I'm not confident at all in town!Naomi come LYLO, but I am confident in town!Nero.

[MortFeld]

Last post.

you was around on D2 and didn't post.

Nero posted on MS during the 5 hours that Day 2 lasted? I find this unlikely. Can you copy/paste post times?

[MortFeld]

If scum don't shoot and we lynch a townie because of it, isn't that still good for town?

[MortFeld]

UNVOTE:

let me get back to yuo tomorrow rb

[MortFeld]

I still dontt get why chaos even quoted that list. reads lists are ptetty useless anyway

[MortFeld]

I still dontt get why chaos even quoted that list. reads lists are ptetty useless anyway

Why did you make one then

to give people an idea of my thought process at the time. I didnt have a lot fo hard scum reads around post 900. it was useful in context but it seems like cherrypicking for Chaos to grab that from a reread.

[MortFeld]

to-do list tomorrow:

Nero case
LUV read

[MortFeld]

yeah he is probably town.

[MortFeld]

Nero PBPA. Going to try something just for fun, giving + town points and - scum points. This will not affect my read but I want to start trying it with PBPAs.

Spoiler: the PBPA

696 Votes Chaos over obvious joke. Read out of context? Not sure how. -.5

I remember that 1103 pinged me as a bit flippant, but I think that's just how Nero talks. -.5

1127 town reads Copper because apparently Copper mindlessly agrees with posts... as town, and he did so in this game. Which feels incredibly weak, even if you believe that kind of meta analysis works it's thin. Scum reads Misa because of 9 which is reasonable. +0

First part of 1129 is not true. TF did not say anything about alignment - 'unnecessary' doesn't imply 'scummy.' Points out TB's 112 as scummy. Reasonable. -.5

1167 is a good post. +1

1187 through 1194 I'm not sure. Holding TF accountable = good. +1

1262 makes excuse for Arc. Doesn't understand case on Arc as demonstrated by 1264. -.5

1)

1309 rereads TB, decides Arc is scummy. Inconsistency. Might be explained by Nero's being scum - knows Arc is town, doesn't see a case, wants town cred because Arc may eventually flip. Then he sees a valid case and jumps on. Could also be town. -.5

2)

So at this point TF makes 1379. Nero responds with 1382. Essentially:
TF - you are not catching up.
Nero - I am active.

Let's ignore for a second that this is moving the goalposts, and pretend that Nero said "I have caught up and I've shown it." How accurate is this? Has Nero actually caught up? The latest post he explicitly caught up on before his replacement at 580 is 526. Before that he focuses on stuff around post 100. So there is a 400-post gap, still not sure if he read those. Then for stuff that happens after he replaces in, he is nearly mute! He makes no overt attempt to read or comment on anything between post 580 and post 1382. This is quite odd for a townie, even rb made an attempt to read ISOs and he had more than double the pages to read that Nero had. This is the majority of my case. Not just moving the goalposts and thereby not answering the question, but also the content, which is that Nero was participating and voting yet hadn't made an overt attempt to catch up, or to tell town he didn't intend to catch up. -2

1387 is a weird question because TF had already made 1350 and 1332 which both show intent to lynch. Why ask TF specifically? -.5

3)

1410 moving the goalpost again. The issue from 1408 wasn't that Arc was lurky, the issue was that she made a poor excuse for her being lurky. TF might be wrong that this is a scumtell (I think he most definitely is), but saying 'Arc is always lurky' is not interacting with TF's point. Also is making excuses for Arc again. -1

4)

1586 gross. Also has the side effect of excusing a real justification for the vote. The only reason I can see people doing this as town is to make it seem reasonable when they do it as scum. Nero has zero town cred at this point, no scum is going to jump on the Arc wagon merely given Nero's blessing. I have yet to see a successful reaction test of this sort in any of my games or games I've read. -1

1589 justifying Arc townread based on meta. I have no issue with meta reads in general, but meta reads of this sort... if you are going to justify a townread, do so in a way that isn't circular. "Arc is town because she looks town" is not logical. But this is a disagreement about playstyle more than anything. +0

1592 reduces my PBPA to 'Arc throwing a hissy fit,' which makes sense in hindsight if you know Arc is town! But that was not the entirety of my case. -.5

5)

1660 huh? Suddenly Arc looks scum from my PBPA? Literal flip flop, Nero said she looked town from it earlier. How did this happen? Good on Nero for calling out Shadow's weirdness. -1 +.5 = -.5

1661 perplexes me. Why draw attention to RK? There's a big HS wagon. HS was town. I don't know a ton about scum theory so I'll say it's NAI. +0

1668 no. Why do people play like this? It only makes sense for people to interact with posts like these if they townread you. Nobody should be townreading Nero at this point in time. +0

1674 is not a reason to vote RK. It contains no argument. Therefore it essentially constitutes avoiding TF's question from 1669 -.5

1675 good point about scumtells, I think I agree with this in terms of the macro game, which is what Naomi was referencing. +.5

Then we have a 400-post gap.

2089 hm, why? I don't think anyone asked because there was a big ad-hominem fest going on at the time. Don't like the vote because it came during the Drone push. Seemed like Nero was trying to propose a counterwagon, it just didn't take because Nero has no towncred and made no argument.

6)

2107 is the only time the entire game Nero mentions Drone. "What's the case on Drone?" Case was explained, Nero doesn't post again. Drone ends up dying. That whole section reads bad. -1

7)

He also never mentions Toto the entire time. Like, literally not a single instance of 'Toto' or stuff about Toto occurs in Nero's posts. -1

Total score: -8 out of 22 items. Average scum per post: -.36. This is just for future reference to see how this method correlates with alignment. Not scientific at all, though after many games it might start to become scientific.

I do think Nero is scum. He remains my most likely candidate. See 1-7 for the main posts that make me believe this.

[MortFeld]

Lynching RK instead of Nero is dumb, we're doing so because Arc reads Nero as town? I get that Arc and Nero know each other over many games but forgive me for not just taking Arc's word here.

[MortFeld]

By the way, can we brainstorm a way to avoid the scum no-kill scenario? To recap: Arc JKs someone and tells us who it is before nightfall. If this person is town, scum can no-kill to make us think that person is confscum. Lynching them puts us in a MYLO situation rather than LYLO. Scum can do this indefinitely, or even carry out a nightkill the next night with even numbers.

Two questions:

1) Does the benefit for scum of leading us down WIFOM paths in the coming days, and putting the game in a MYLO situation with little risk, outweigh the harm of leaving Arc alive another night? and
2) If the answer to 1) is yes, does town have any counterplay? I've been toying with the idea of having Chaos and Arc target the same person.

[MortFeld]

I asked you to claim.

Actually you didn't, you asked whether or not I had claimed yet. But I'm VT.

[MortFeld]

About the JK thing, if scum keep no killing to wifom us, to prevent that we keep no lynching and jailing the same person.
Mafia cannot choose to indefinitely no kill, if they do town auto wins.

Awesome, thanks for the solution. This would be a very funny end to a game.

[MortFeld]

Wait. If scum keep no killing, and town keeps no lynching, at what point do we decide to split the difference and lynch? Or is there a point at which the game just ends in a town win?

[MortFeld]

We are lynching because people are dying at night. If scum decide to stop killing there isn't a threat so we don't need to lynch.
Mod has to declare that town have won.

I understand the first part, but not the second. Town win when all scum are dead. Scum win when all town are dead. If it is apparent that neither of these win conditions will be met, how does this result in a town win?

[MortFeld]

Tbh we won't know if scum nokilled or we jailed though, is my point

We might jail then lynch the jailed person because no kill. They flip town. Scum nokills again, we lynch jail target - flips town.

Or we could just fucking play the game and stop being scared to find scum by daygame and totally forget about using gimmicks to do it - it WOULD work if we hadn't wifom'd the shit out of ourselves or discussed it for days.

This is not productive. I'm trying to see if there's an optimal path for town here. If there isn't, then we play the game as usual. If there is, we take it. It's not a gimmick if it's foolproof.

Scum nokill, person is town

We no lynch and jail the same person.

Scum nokill, person is scum

We no lynch and jail the same person.

This continues until either scum decide to kill and let us confirm a townie, or they don't ever decide to kill. What I'm wondering is if the latter results in a town win.

[MortFeld]

Besides, the gimmick isn't even detracting from gameplay. I'm still trying to find scum the old fashioned way.

Which reminds me, I need to look at LUV again.

[MortFeld]

It doesn't unless we actually jail scum. Which means we have to find scum first anyway. So just focus on finding scum.

No...

I'm discussing a scenario where we jail town and scum decide to no kill. The problem is that this game can end up in a weird limbo, where it is optimal for us

not

to lynch the jailed person next day even if there is no nightkill. This is WIFOM but it's WIFOM we have to consider - to lynch town after a no kill would be bad. The alternative is for us to continuously no lynch and force scum to either nightkill, letting us confirm town, or keeping the game in this perpetual state until it's resolved by the mod.

My question, which is

still

unanswered, is if there is a point at which a game ends after a sufficient number of days with no nightkill or lynch.

[MortFeld]

I don't know why you're avoiding discussing this. If it's suboptimal for us to lynch tomorrow, we shouldn't lynch tomorrow, regardless of what general mafia theory usually dictates.

[MortFeld]

LUV stuff. Not going to spoiler bc this is shorter.

In 454, 579, 952 and 1824 he explicitly agrees with something Toto says.
In 1246 he attacks RK for RK's Toto vote. I actually forgot about this vote, I think RK is decidedly the

wrong

lynch today.
In 1299 and 1705 he asks RK and HS respectively to explain their Toto scumreads.
In 1305 he assures Toto that she is not tunneling unfairly on HS.

So I think an LUV + Toto connection is reasonable. LUV has had a good amount of towncred this game, and scum!LUV might have tried to use this to keep town's opinions of Toto favorable.

LUV did present the idea of a Drone compromise lynch early. This would be a fairly hard bus, since there was a chance for one of RK, Chaos, Naomi, and maybe even rb or HS to get lynched at that point. 2402 gives me pause though,

You were right but I was also right about Drone.

reads gloaty and almost LAMIST? Hard to explain why I didn't like this post. But I don't think a bus is out of the question.

2375 and 2391 also bother me. I get that we all thought scum had to be Chaos + Toto, but exuberantly going "Woo vote Chaos he's gotta be scum! Town wins!" pings off. Less about the certainty that Chaos was scum, more about the tone.

So basically, my stance on LUV is that, jailkeeper shenanigans aside, we lynch him tomorrow. This analysis has made me think he's a better choice than Naomi or RK tomorrow.

[MortFeld]

@Naomi:

I didn't understand much of your earlier point and only really got the latter part about prods and activity. Thanks for clarifying.

The problem with your theory is that you're assuming that Shadow and RK are town. Drone and Toto if I recall correctly never pushed Shadow but as for the slot overall I would have to double check. Drone made a case for RK but didn't really push it much and awkwardly hopped off to TF if I'm recalling correctly. You're right that neither pushed Nero though but I don't think it's that simple.

As for my theory, yeah scum could choose to no kill but that doesn't really help them in the long run as that's just giving town more time and chances to weed the last scum out.

Besides, the gimmick isn't even detracting from gameplay. I'm still trying to find scum the old fashioned way.

Which reminds me, I need to look at LUV again.

What gimick you talking about here?

The gimmick is jailkeeper town/scum confirms. The thing I'm hung up on is actually something you brought up - scum can no kill to make us think that the person we jailed is scum.

The solution Shadow suggested is that if there is no nightkill, we no lynch the following day and jail the same person. If they are town, scum will either nightkill and confirm a townie or continue to no kill. If they are scum, scum will continue to no kill. I am trying to figure out what happens if we have, say, 10 nights of no lynches and no nightkills. I actually believe this is optimal from both sides, given the situation. Another confirmed townie is very bad for scum. If they can, they should do everything in their power to avoid confirming someone.

Mod, if you can answer this. Is there a set number of days in a row with no kills that results in a win for either side? If so, which side wins, and after how many days? If you can't answer this, can you say explicitly that you can't?