Mini 542 - Game Over


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Post Post #491 (isolation #0) » Fri Feb 08, 2008 5:07 pm

Post by Rogueben »

Hey guys I'm here. My forum access has been cut off at home because of a banned IP. JEEP is looking into this atm. I have read 10 pages so far but cannot read more until my access is fixed.

I will give an analysis of the play once I have finished reading. I hope that my access will be back by the end of this weekend.
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Post Post #509 (isolation #1) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 2:15 am

Post by Rogueben »

Finally finished my readthrough.

As many of the other replacements have said, it has taken me far longer to read through this game then I expected (especially as I had no access for almost a week).
Unfortunately it is very late now and I have work tomorrow morning so I will get to my big analysis post in the next day or two.
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Post Post #510 (isolation #2) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:53 pm

Post by Rogueben »

It's time for analysis. I'm not going to start with a pbpa or anything, just initial impressions from the readthrough. In the order from top to bottom as in the first post. Btw sorry for the massive wall in advance.

Hypatia

Day one - Weird thing with spurg.
The amount of time talking about claims disturbs me a little, even though her claiming policies have been explained.
Her plan is very weak, the claim does make sense though.
Post 430 - Argument against volkan, very weak.
Hypatia wrote:Specifically, right now, rogueben, klebian, and thinktank.
In response to which lurkers to lynch. At this stage I had been playing in the game for all of a couple of days. This seems pretty scummy to me, and not just for OMGUS.
The "shortcut" method of sending in an investigation also seems pretty scummy.
After all that though I still believe her claim, it fits with her early day play, I don't quite understand how she stuffed up the investigation though. I would sit her at about 60% on a Vollkan like scale - committed serious scum-tells, but claim is quite possible.

Justin Playfair (Death's Door)

Death's Door had a solid entry into the game - i found nothing really wrong with him before he was replaced out.
Justin's argument against Vollkan/Ythill seems a little contrived. The "breaks the thread" claim, that it was an intended scum ploy to make people lurk seems pretty assumptive.
The second part of the argument:
Justin wrote:In post 192 Vollkan posts this:
Vollkan wrote: 2. DELIBERATE LYING - In this case, Mookeh (presumably scum if he has lied in this way) seeks to prevent Mils' actions being seen as a town-tell. Tbh, this seems a pretty ridiculous argument - the risks for scum in lying about a reference greatly outweigh the benefit of not having a town-tell recognised. It simply is not a viable scum move.
Which isn’t really true. And it bothers me, because Vollkan should know better than this, his play suggests someone with a far more nuanced appreciation of the game than this above quote suggests. Because would scum use a reference which could absolutely be shown as a bald-faced lie, where there were absolutely no similarities to the situation which could be found? No, they wouldn’t. But would scum use a reference which didn’t really apply to the situation but where some part of it could be jiggered around to seem to relate to one bit or another of the situation they were commenting on?

Sure, it’s a good risk, and with double benefits. First, you get a kick to your target by pointing out that their action was one you’re seen taken by scum, or taken yourself as scum. Then, if the target argues you can come back with your interpretation, which even if it isn’t very good still keeps you in the offensive position, and makes the target look defensive.
Which is strawmanning Vollkan's argument, where he was proposing that this was the other option to an error.
His last post about Hypatia highlights the fact that she talks about claims a fair bit, but as vollkanII has said this fits with her claim and also none of the quotes are damning fishing. In fact in most of the cases they are more related to game theory ie once people get to L-1 a claim is going to happen
The thing that makes me think he is town is that if he was scum he is not likely to have killed vollkan, especially after attacking him so vigorously at the end of yesterday. This could all be a buttload of wifom though.
I would put Justin at 60% for the attack against Vollkan and his attack against Hypatia.

killa seven (Mr. President)

Mr President - Lurker embodied.
killa seven - Lurker too.
Agrees with others arguments too much, not much in the way of scum hunting.
Evaluation - needs to post more, especially with original thoughts. 55%.

klebian (Autolycus)

klebian's play has been probably the most pro-town in my mind.
I find myself agreeing with a lot that he says. I would like to see him voting now though, and committing himself to a highest suspicion, especially with the short deadlines in these days.
Evaluation – Solid pro-town. Needs to commit though. 45%

vollkan II (thinktank, spurgistan)

Spurg attracted a lot of attention due to being the “king of the lurkers”
He talked too much about the meta game and didn't appear to do any real scumhunting.
Thinktank added practically nothing.
Vollkan makes a couple of good points in his welcome back post.
Evaluation – 55% due to uber-lurk + lack of scumhunting from spurg and thinktank.

Ythill

The hardest analysis of players currently left in the game. (Sheer length).
Ythill's play has been solid.
He has played a very good game, whether he is protown or scum.
His day one argument against Mills was weak in of itself, the argument that continued was also weak, slightly scummy.
The argument for Vollkan/Ythill scumpair was a stretch but could have been possible.
I could see Ythill buddying to Vollkan, there are many times when he complements Vollkan's playstyle and also the big debate on day two could be seen as buddying at the end.
In conclusion – 50% - good arguments in general, some weak points though.

Over the next couple of days I will be posting more game analysis. If anyone has any questions for me please fire away.

Finally a couple of questions.

@klebian. Who do you see as more likely to be scum – Hypatia or Justin?
@VollkanII. Who is more likely scum – killa seven or Justin.
@killa seven. Can you see Ythill as buddying scum?
@Justin. Why is that Hypatia's claim bothers you so much?
@Hypatia. Do you think it is good to make hypothetical arguments? (eg IF X is scum then ...)
@Ythill. Who do you see as more likely to be scum – Hypatia or Justin?

So to sum up my suspicions.
1.Justin – Haven't liked his last couple of posts or the Vollkan argument.
2.Hypatia – I see her as possibly town playing badly hence place 2.
3.killa seven – most likely lurker scum.

For the moment I will
Vote: Justin
. This may change depending on answers to the questions above.
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Post Post #512 (isolation #3) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:11 am

Post by Rogueben »

Vollkan wrote: See, I think I had effectively rebutted Justin's case. At any rate, I was feeling comfortable about having refuted it come the end of D2. With that in mind, I find it quite sensible for scumJustin to take VollI out, given that I was vigorously pushing against one of their own, that I was a loud member of the town and that there was a diminishing likelihood of successfully lynching VollI.
This VollI/VollII is going to confuse me I know it. I agree with this though. Justin's case had been mostly rebutted, it could quite possibly have been scum trying to take out a strong pro-town player.
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Post Post #524 (isolation #4) » Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:32 am

Post by Rogueben »

Ythill wrote:Which argument? The opening one was admittedly weak. The “mills-list” one was noted as too heavy handed, a perception I agreed could be the case. I think the others were solid but am willing to entertain/address your specific points.
The opening argument.
Ythill wrote:Um, except that vollkanI was town. What are you getting at with this statement?
It was a statement leading towards the buddying theory.
Ythill wrote:I will agree that the “big debate”
could have been
buddying on my part, though I believe vollkanI was being set up for attack by scum, not buddying. Complimenting someone’s playstyle is a neutral comment. Do you find it ironic that you point to this as a sign of buddying immediately after complimenting my playstyle?
Not particularly. In this case I was talking about you having played a very good game, whether it be for scum or town. I don't see this as "buddying" because I explicitly stated that even though you were playing a good game, there was reason to be suspicious of you as well.
The buddying comments I was talking about were "I like your playstyle" "I hope you're town" (not exact quotes). This seems much more likely to be buddying to me.

Thank you for your response and questions. Keep firing.
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Post Post #527 (isolation #5) » Sat Feb 16, 2008 11:59 pm

Post by Rogueben »

Ythill wrote: "I like your playstyle" + "I hope you're town" = "talking about you having played a very good game, whether it be for scum or town"
Hmm I suppose so. I guess that was just something that stood out in my mind while reading the thread.
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Post Post #535 (isolation #6) » Sun Feb 17, 2008 6:58 pm

Post by Rogueben »

Ah I see. Sorry Justin I misread your post. It seemed to me you were presenting the same thing as Vollkan's point one of that post. That's why I said it was strawmanning.

Also in regard to Hypatia's claim arguments, I have seen them as scummy, and mention this:
Rogueben in 510 wrote:The amount of time talking about claims disturbs me a little, even though her claiming policies have been explained.
.
Your previous quote post about the frequency of claim talk didn't make me feel differently though. Your last post (530) does raise some relevant points though.

@Hypatia. When do you think it is good to make someone claim?
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Post Post #549 (isolation #7) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:57 pm

Post by Rogueben »

Noted that k7 picked little pieces from everyone elses game analysis, not posting anything new.
Justin wrote: I found it particularly telling that she said this about a wagon on Mills…
I disagree with this, at this stage it was too close to deadline to get a claim and switch wagons. This is not telling at all imo.

No matter what the situation, we should still be trying to lynch who is most likely to be scum (which I still think is you Justin). We should not be thinking, lynch the possible power-role today, so they are not around tomorrow to confuse people.
Justin wrote: There is no logic at all in me attacking Hypatia after her claim if I’m scum. If anything she would be of more value alive.
Except maybe the fact that she has committed some serious scumtells, making her a perfect, explainable mislynch.

This relies on two assumptions, both of which Justin made in the above quote:
1. Justin is scum.
2. Hypatia's claim is true.

I think it's about time that Justin claimed.
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Post Post #567 (isolation #8) » Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:16 am

Post by Rogueben »

Ythill wrote: # vol-II and klebian: As town, it’s likely these two were blinded by town reads on me. Which is forgivable, especially because their reads were accurate.
# Rogueben: As town, perhaps he was blinded by his suspicions of Justin.
# k7: If he’s town, he’s not a creative thinker or a talented sleuth. It makes sense that he wouldn’t have thought of this.
# Hypatia: If she’s town, I am confirmed gunless to her and both of these facts would lead to her not thinking of this. Combine this with the fact that, even if it did occur to her, she wouldn’t have mentioned it for the same reasons that I didn’t.
# Justin: Here’s the strange one. Justin is smart, he is perceptive, he looks for patterns and has demonstrated that he likes evidence that ties two potential scum together. Hypatia is the explicit target of his current suspicions. I was one target of his D2 suspicions and am now attacking him aggressively. So why, as town, would Justin not examine the possibility that Hyp + Yth = scum? I don’t think there is a valid explanation (but am open to hearing one). However, if he’s scum, he’s not curious about our alignments and so probably wouldn’t have analyzed the possibilities honestly enough to come up with this.
Just to comment on this one, I think that the way you "clear" a lot of people from suspicion about this point is stretching slightly at times and a tad scummy. I should not be cleared for having my eyes locked on one person, vollkan should also have noticed something (which he says he did and discounted) and klebian did notice it.
The way that you paint it, Justin is the only one on that list who should definitely have noticed it, which is making a few too many assumptions for me.

Vollkan wrote:Justin is not to be lynched until he gives his thoughts.
/qft

Not liking k7's previous post, will move to him if necessary for a lynch.
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Post Post #607 (isolation #9) » Thu Feb 28, 2008 2:24 am

Post by Rogueben »

I have not heard of Godfather immune to gunsmith. I highly doubt that is the case in this setup.

Something that we should be careful of is Hyp-scum, if this is the case and there is a townie lynch today then it still doesn't confirm Hyp as town. She would have had to play a brilliant gambit as scum to pick both Justin and Ythill as gunless town members but it is still possible.

The other thing that concerns me slightly is the possibility of a Hyp-Justin pairing. I know that puts it at 4 scum in the game but that is not impossible given the amount of town power in this game. If this is the case and we go ahead with the "bloc" plan then it's game over after today's lynch.

However, I think the "bloc" plan is a good idea, at least to stimulate discussion.

Please continue your analysis and start firing with questions, I will continue my analysis and try to find inconsistencies but will wait, at least for a week or so, before posting any of my ideas.

@Vollkan. I just want to hear your opinion on the possibility of a 4 member scum team.
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Post Post #608 (isolation #10) » Thu Feb 28, 2008 2:34 am

Post by Rogueben »

And just to clear up now. I would have hammered k7 but I was out all day with no net access and by the time I got home it was already done.
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Post Post #616 (isolation #11) » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:07 pm

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Y wrote: Ben’s #607 attempts to point suspicion at Hypa and Justin. The mention of Hypa is to be expected. The mention of Justin seems unrealistic and designed to give ben an out tomorrow if we hang vollkan today.
This was actually an error on my part. I meant to write - Hypa-Ythill pairing not Hypa-Justin, this is why posting at 3 in the morning is bad.

For the record I still see 4 scum as a possibility, I have been in 12 mans with 4 scum before and this is why I was mentioning the Ythill-Hypa pairing.

I'm leaving my vote for the moment. I want to get a really good read on all the people asking questions before I make my decision.
[quote="Y']
Ben said he would hammer k7. He knew when the deadline was but didn’t hammer or even post during sunset. He entered the thread this morning with a justification though nobody had fingered him. You already know how I feel about risking the no-lynch, I also think the entrance was a bit defensive.
[/quote]
That is sincere, I knew when the deadline was but I got called to a rehearsal that night and got home at 4:30 (Party afterwards). That was an unexpected thing and it took preference over an internet game (no offense).

As for it being defensive, I expected the question to come at some point today, because I would have asked me that question too. I wanted to clarify it before anyone asked, because otherwise it makes the defense seem concocted (which it is not).
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Post Post #617 (isolation #12) » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:08 pm

Post by Rogueben »

With fixed tags
Y wrote: Ben’s #607 attempts to point suspicion at Hypa and Justin. The mention of Hypa is to be expected. The mention of Justin seems unrealistic and designed to give ben an out tomorrow if we hang vollkan today.
This was actually an error on my part. I meant to write - Hypa-Ythill pairing not Hypa-Justin, this is why posting at 3 in the morning is bad.

For the record I still see 4 scum as a possibility, I have been in 12 mans with 4 scum before and this is why I was mentioning the Ythill-Hypa pairing.

I'm leaving my vote for the moment. I want to get a really good read on all the people asking questions before I make my decision.
Y wrote: Ben said he would hammer k7. He knew when the deadline was but didn’t hammer or even post during sunset. He entered the thread this morning with a justification though nobody had fingered him. You already know how I feel about risking the no-lynch, I also think the entrance was a bit defensive.
That is sincere, I knew when the deadline was but I got called to a rehearsal that night and got home at 4:30 (Party afterwards). That was an unexpected thing and it took preference over an internet game (no offense).

As for it being defensive, I expected the question to come at some point today, because I would have asked me that question too. I wanted to clarify it before anyone asked, because otherwise it makes the defense seem concocted (which it is not).
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Post Post #621 (isolation #13) » Fri Feb 29, 2008 2:01 am

Post by Rogueben »

Y wrote:None taken. Where were you when you got the call?
Not that I see it as relevant, but I was at work (I teach music at a high school if you want to know that as well).
V wrote: What question were you expecting to come up today?
The question about why I didn't hammer k7 when I said I would.

I understand that it's hard for you not to argue Vollkan, but I would prefer to honor the wishes of Ythill and the bloc for at least a week before we start to converse too much.
(and this has nothing to do with your prodigious skill for arguing, merely a wish to keep the thread clear enough for the remaining members of the bloc to put in their 2-cents).
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Post Post #622 (isolation #14) » Fri Feb 29, 2008 2:53 am

Post by Rogueben »

V wrote:Can we have a link? I want to see the set-up.
I remembered a 4-scum setup, when I went back to look for it I found it was only a three scum + SK setup, which we can be pretty sure we don't have.

On the wiki it does mention balancing minis with 4 scum however.

3-scum does seem overwhelmingly likely.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #15) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:03 am

Post by Rogueben »

Mod: Can you prod Hypatia too. Her 72 hours is also up.


We've got to keep this game moving, I don't want it to die after so much effort from everyone.
I will continue to abide by the "bloc's" rules for a couple more days, but after that point I really think it is more valuable that I get my opinions out before anyone is lynched, so that my suspicions are out in the open if I am lynched.
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Post Post #654 (isolation #16) » Sat Mar 08, 2008 4:08 pm

Post by Rogueben »

Hey guys.

I'm really sorry I haven't posted in a while. I currently only have access at uni (posting from a friends place atm) as my access has been cut off at home due to a banned IP address.

I'm talking to JEEP about fixing this, I'll try and catch up tomorrow.
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Post Post #658 (isolation #17) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 4:37 pm

Post by Rogueben »

Justin wrote:Was there nothing in the play of VollkanII, Klebian or Ythill about which you could have asked them? Was there anything beyond the obvious (who was most likely to be lynched) that you were hoping to discover by asking them which of two players they found most suspicious?
With those three players I wanted to get a commitment to a particular suspicion. Those questions were not intended to gain as much information as the other questions, they were basically just for the most obvious reason.
Justin wrote:Why did you turn specifically to killa seven for your question about Ythill and buddying?
I thought that by getting killa 7 respond to a generated case it might either provoke some scum-hunting from him, or provoke a slip. Since his suspicion list was so weak I thought that getting him to comment on a case, which I believed to be pretty weak, would be a good idea to see if he blindly followed (indicative of scum).
Justin wrote:What was so significant about the line you quoted from my day two post pointing out why as scum I wouldn’t have gone after Hypatia to make that the point at which you believed a claim was needed?
I don't understand this question. I've read it a few times and can't work out what you want to know.
Justin wrote:What scum purpose would be served by a scum buddy group of Hypatia and Ythill choosing me, who would have probably been the easiest to lynch person remaining in town, as not having a gun, which could not have been more easily served by saying I had a gun or simply leaving me dangling?
Hmm. This is a good point. If they said you had a gun, and you were lynched that would be endgame, if they said nothing then you were a good target. I can't see Ythill-scum making such a weak and convoluted gambit.
The Hypatia-Ythill theory was just that, a theory. It was put out in the open for people to poke holes at.

Can you clarify that question for me. I intend to respond to all the other points of analysis but with only access at uni I am very limited in my posting time.
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Post Post #661 (isolation #18) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 12:52 am

Post by Rogueben »

These are in response to Ythill's post 643 pbpa.
Y wrote:6 – retracts part of case on Justin, questions Hypa – Here ben retracts the only original point he’s made, which was the strawman accusation. He also backs away from (but doesn’t retract completely) his complaint about Justin’s treatment of Hypa.
Upon inspection I was not so sure I had understood Justin's original intent of his post. I suppose I should have pushed that further to gleam more information. I wasn't backing off about his treatment of Hypatia, I was saying that his more recent post on this had some valid points that I had to consider. There is a distinct difference between that and "backing off" as you claim I did.
Y wrote:7 – k7’s analysis is aping, defends Hypa, calls Justin out for pushing her mislynch, asks Justin to claim. – New evidence entered against k7 doesn’t seem to increase ben’s suspicions, yet ben continues the argument about Justin’s treatment of Hypa and uses it to further embroil Justin even though he partially dismissed it in his last post.
Yes I didn't update k7 on a suspicion percentage, I'm new to that system, using for the first time in this game. I forgot to update him. This doesn't mean that mentally I hadn't taken this into account. See previous point above, just because someone makes a valid point about something it does not preclude them from being scum.
Finally the bottom part of my post 7:
Rogueben wrote:
Justin wrote: There is no logic at all in me attacking Hypatia after her claim if I’m scum. If anything she would be of more value alive.
Except maybe the fact that she has committed some serious scumtells, making her a perfect, explainable mislynch.
Was in answer to a question that he asked (quoted above as well). I think that this raises a valid point, and you ignore this in your pbpa.
Y wrote:8 – accuses Yth for clearing people via assumptions, qft re: Justin’s thoughts before the hammer, offers to switch to k7 if necessary – He says I’m scummy for an assumptive attack on his PE#1, which is very odd. I can see him questioning the attack but there was no realistic way for myself and Justin to both be scum because of Hypa’s claim and investigation. His treatment of me here is more aggresive than his earlier treatment of my attacks on now-confirmed townies.
My point here was that you cleared a lot of people in a very assumptive way to add evidence to PE #1. I was not saying you were scum, and definitely not saying you were likely to be scum with Justin. My point here was that the way you added evidence based off so many assumptions could be seen as scum throwing extra onto the fire.
Y wrote:Hypatia – Finds her scummy, agrees with the most obvious evidence, adds no new evidence, rates her @ 60% but believes her claim. (Asks: are hypotheticals good?) PE#2. – This post sits ben on the fence. All he has to do is “change his mind” about her claim and he can justify a vote on her if that’s the way things are going. The question here is a loaded one.
Just a second here. Most people were in the same position here, thinking Hyp was quite possible scum but not willing to lynch yet. The question was intended to get her to think about her playstyle. I found a lot of her hypothetical arguments frustrating. It was my hope that by thinking about the question she would stop the IF X is scum arguments.
Y wrote:Justin – calls his play vs. vol-I+Yth assumptive and accuses him of strawmanning, doesn’t like his accusation of Hypatia, rates him at 60% but says Justin wouldn’t have likely killed vol-I. (Asks: why does Hyp’s claim bother you?) PE#1. – This could be designed to manipulate the Interrogator into attacking Justin. Ben’s one original statement is a thorn in vol’s side and his one point in Justin’s favor is something easily refuted by vol. The question asked Jus is loaded and the most open ended of all of them.
Whether you believe this or not, I have no where near the subtlety in my playstyle to attempt a trap like that, whether scum or town. I don't see how the Justin question is loaded. I legitimately wanted to see more from him in his analysis of Hypatia. I thought it had been weak up till that point, and that by asking him to think about what part of the claim bothers him, he may uncover new evidence or dig himself a hole.
Y wrote:K7 – lurker, repeats others’ evidence, rates him @ 55%. (Asks: Is Ythill buddying?) PE#3 – This question is the most cut and dry of them all. It’s also the only one in which he directly feeds a case to the person questioned.
Already addressed this. Also see my post 7 where I call him out for exactly what I was intending to find.
Y wrote:Klebian – the most pro-town because ben agrees with what he says, but thinks he needs to commit more; rates him @ 45%. (Asks: Hyp or Jus?) – Had ben already guessed that kleb was the vig? In that case, it would make sense to be nice to him. Ben never mentions him again.
Not that you can believe me, but I had no idea klebian was the vig. I never mention him again because I found him pro-town, I had strong scum reads on other players so I focused on them.
Y wrote:Vol-II – spurg and thinktank uber-lurked, vol made good points, rates at 55%. (Asks: k7 or Jus?) – This entry is very empty and I get nothing from it, except a global argument about the questions (see below)
There was nothing to talk about and thus I talked about nothing.
Y wrote:Ythill – solid (not townie) play, repeats others’ evidence, suggests buddying to vol-I; rates @ 50%. (Asks: Hyp or Jus?) There’s a little ego stroking in here, which could be manipulative. He gives credit to the vol-I + Yth buddying argument here, including vol-I’s inconvenient town confirmation as evidence that it was all my doing. What gets me about this is that the assumptive nature of this argument was one of his three reasons for suspecting Justin and he’s already backing off of it.
I was mentioning that it was possible, not that it was likely. In this case I was not putting forward the idea as an important argument, it was merely something to think about if I (or someone else) thought you were scummy later on. The difference between that and the Justin argument is that his assumption formed the basis of a whole case, mine was supporting a minor point for possible consideration.

Global Points
Y wrote:Rogueben gives three reasons for suspecting Justin. One is partially dismissed in the same post. Another is entirely abandoned when challenged. The third is backed off of and then re-ignited. During this, ben’s behavior towards Justin seems to indicate that he is becoming more suspicious of him rather than less. All of this changes in ben’s last post of the day, in which he puts forth a theory that requires Justin to be town, agrees that Justin should be allowed to speak before he’s hammered, and keeps voting for Justin.
Already gone over most of this. I was not getting more suspicious of Justin, I was retaining my current suspicion. Can you site any evidence that suggests I was becoming more suspicious of Justin? Also I have already mentioned this but the "theory" about you in my last point was a minor point. I said it was only a tad scummy which implies that it wasn't a huge suspicion.
Y wrote:The questions posted with ben’s entrance analysis are very manipulative. His prime target is wordy and is asked the only truly open-ended question; it’s about a touchy subject for which Justin is already being scrutinized. Ben’s secondary suspect is asked about theory, a subject for which she has been reprimanded for visiting. Ben’s third suspect, now confirmed scum, is fed a case and asked to either agree or disagree with it. The other three (two heavies and the vig) are asked to choose between two targets, one of which (in every case) is Justin. Vol is the only one asked about k7; meanwhile other manipulation points him at Justin.
I have already gone over most of this as well. The reason I asked you three the questions about suspicions were 1. to get commitment to one person and 2. because I saw you three as the most likely to be town so I wanted your opinions on the players I thought were most likely to be scum. Voll seemed to rate k7 higher in suspicion than Hyp so I asked him about k7. There is no real logic further than that.
Y wrote:Rogueben disappears more than 48 hours before the day ends and doesn’t check back in until morning. He leaves with the impression that he’ll switch his vote at the last minute, if needed, but doesn’t even check back in. If not for Hypatia’s vote, we’d have had another mislynch.
I've already been through this as well, I did see it as likely that I would be around come deadline, hence leaving it off. When I was called to the rehearsal, that took priority (money before fun everytime).

I will try and get some analysis of Hypatia and Vollkan done on Thursday (no time whatsoever tomorrow) just in case I am lynched.
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Post Post #662 (isolation #19) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 12:54 am

Post by Rogueben »

ARGH sorry about the tags.

MOD would you be kind enough to fix those for me for readability


Sure thing.
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Post Post #664 (isolation #20) » Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:06 pm

Post by Rogueben »

Y wrote:This defense is slippery and I don’t like it. What you said in your #8 was, “I think that the way you "clear" a lot of people from suspicion about this point is stretching slightly at times and a tad scummy.” Without further qualification, this is an accusation and it doesn’t make sense from a town perspective at the time it was posted.
A tad scummy implies that it's not full directed suspicion. It is also not an accusation, just like getting bumped up 5% in a scumdar is not accusation, it is merely the view that you are slightly scummier now than you were before.
Y wrote:Justin had other evidence as well, most of it against vollkan. I think you’re missing the point of my argument here. I am not saying that I think your treatment of me in this regard was scummy. I am saying that you claimed Justin’s assumptions could be true and extrapolated on them, thereby diminishing your own argument against Justin for those assumptions. Even this is only evidence of your alignment when viewed in conjunction with your ongoing pursuit of a Justin lynch.
Hmm. I see where you are coming from. In your case I was really acknowledging the fact that it was possible that you were scum, but it ain't necessarily so. I see how that diminishes my argument on Justin though.
Y wrote:I probably could but, thanks to your statement, I don’t need to. You have explicitly said that you were retaining your current suspicions. In determining scumminess (increasing suspicions + diminishing evidence) = (unchanging suspicions + diminishing evidence).
What are you getting at here?

Analysis on Hypatia coming up.
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Post Post #670 (isolation #21) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 8:37 pm

Post by Rogueben »

vote: Vollkan


I suppose in the end it doesn't really matter whether you lynch me or Vollkan. The play is really simple tomorrow, lynch the remaining player. So I don't really mind if you decide to lynch me now, as it seems this game is basically won already.
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Post Post #689 (isolation #22) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:33 pm

Post by Rogueben »

Hey guys.

Firstly well done to all members of the town, in particular Ythill and Vollkan who were really hard to argue against.

This game frustrated me a little, as I thought that the mafia was playing along pretty well for the miss-lynch on Justin, which would have set us up much better. The quick flip to k7 a couple of days before deadline really threw me.

The fact that Vollkan replaced back in straight after we killed him was a bit frustrating too. We killed him for being a strong player, and latching onto a couple of scum. Lo and behold there he was again.

The end position for me was pretty screwed I thought, I saw no real strategy that could get away from the fact that Ythill, Justin and Hypatia were pretty much cleared.

Oh and just out of interest I didn't realise that klebian was the vig until it was night time, I though to myself "better work out who the vig is" and it was obvious from there.

Well done Town and thanks to Chaos for a fun game.
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Post Post #697 (isolation #23) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:07 am

Post by Rogueben »

My point was just that having previously-dead player X replace back in is no different to, say, having awesome new player Y replace in.
I understand that, however in this case we specifically killed you not just for being a good player, but also for having 2 mafia in your top three in terms of suspicion.

Anyway, mute point now.

I agree that Justin played really well to get out of those arguments, I thought that was a certain lynch.

Does anyone have some pointers for improving my play? I'm still pretty new to this so some outside opinions would be more than welcome.
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Post Post #699 (isolation #24) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:29 am

Post by Rogueben »

Yeah I'd agree with that. What I found difficult was that there were so many basically confirmed players.

Also Ythill can you confirm. Did you pick me to lynch for my play in particular, or how much of it was due to Mookeh's early play.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #25) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:14 pm

Post by Rogueben »

Now that I look back on it Hypatia might have been a better kill, I just didn't know what type of vig klebian would be. I was worried that he would kill that night and then again the next night. I think by that point I would have lost anyway.

Oh and by the way. Just so you know, I wasn't lying about the rehearsal. I did get called to it, however I did get back before the hammer. I looked at it and thought then, I might just get away with a no-lynch and explain it away tomorrow and went to bed.
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