do I say itIn post 3237, Nimueh wrote:you can always tell in late game
Mini 2059: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Over]
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Ankamius Survivor
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honestly,
xtoxm is more likely to flip scum
tris is more likely to get town on track faster
:SHRUG:-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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I've been out of my scum range for well beyond the entire day phaseIn post 3287, Xtoxm wrote:you death tunneled me in another recently completed game
and youve done the exact same thing here
its not fun being death tunneled
i dont think you would make the same mistake again which is why i sr you here
you can always point at something and say i could have played better
this was very much my town game tho
im a universal sr here and my lynch was inevitable so the self hammer really means f all
as shown by nmsa trying to hammer me anyway
if youre town you should work on lynching ank, there are contradictions all over her play
like pushing only lurkers while claiming a sr on you, when i never endgame here-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Mainly because skitter has been giving me those kinds of feels pretty much all game.In post 3270, Elbirn wrote:I'm not sure why you dont make this criticism of me instead-
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HahahahahahahahahahahahahaIn post 3270, Elbirn wrote:The way she reacts to being scumread just makes me want to not do so. I hope scum-nim doesnt react like that? Have you played with her as scum?
Scumnim does react like that.-
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I probably will avoid ever playing with him again, yes.In post 3284, Nimueh wrote:
Wow really? There’s very few players I’d blacklist and none who are currently alive in this game. But yeah if he flips town, his play here is objectively horrible - for me not anywhere closet to blacklist worthy though but to each their own I guess.In post 3269, Ankamius wrote:this is blacklist territory if xtoxm flips town
so I hope he flips scum just for that-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Mafia would be a lot more fun if I could pull shit like this off as scumIn post 3332, Xtoxm wrote:my hobby: saying im out of my scum range when im scum
I'd probably be one of the stronger scum players on the site instead of meh-
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Ankamius Survivor
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btw odds are any scumteam with me in it with this playerlist has me having a large impact on how we are playing and this just sounds like a stupid planIn post 3335, Xtoxm wrote:if flub is scum ank is very likely his buddy
not sure about that ic claim in this setup but you'll see soon on that ig-
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Ankamius Survivor
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BTW just also notingIn post 3340, Ankamius wrote:
btw odds are any scumteam with me in it with this playerlist has me having a large impact on how we are playing and this just sounds like a stupid planIn post 3335, Xtoxm wrote:if flub is scum ank is very likely his buddy
not sure about that ic claim in this setup but you'll see soon on that ig
This is a very viable plan for me to come up with but it requires Flubber to die for it, not delay like he did-
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Ankamius Survivor
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They're a very good scum playerIn post 3408, Nimueh wrote:I understand why you’re not as confident as I am, on Succinct town.
I wouldn't even call pushing on Flubber after the IC thing town indicative-
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Undecided atmIn post 3447, Chara wrote:
what are you thinking about me here, Ank? it's true i never fought the Flubber lynch, but i was also always going after Xtoxm.In post 3400, Ankamius wrote:What's Charas plan here exactly?
Can you go more into skitter for me please, her posts today feel fake-
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Just huntIn post 3453, xRECKONERx wrote:like i can't even argue with people wanting to lynch me. my defense of flubber looks really really bad and i cannot defend it because it was shit based on gut. and couple that with me leading the brigitte charge d1 and yeah, i get the desire to lynch me. im not even sure i particularly have it in me to fight the lynch because it's deserved.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Like out of everybody who has posted, skitter and reck are the two that haven't tried to bounce back and re-search for the scumteam
I don't like this
The slots that are absent are going to start looking real bad in around a day too
It's time to get your shit together, town. Tomorrow is only going to be harder if we fuck it up today-
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Ankamius Survivor
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NglIn post 3458, Chara wrote:
do you have it in you to read the game she linked?In post 3455, Ankamius wrote:Can you go more into skitter for me please, her posts today feel fake
i'd expect scum skitter to get burnt out at some point (and i'm still keeping an eye out).
not really getting the fake feeling at this moment.
i'll be able to give you a much more definitive confident townread once she's made good on grilling me.
Meta on games I haven't played in personally aren't going to do anything for me
I'm more looking for signs that it is a personality tell and how valid it is, because I plan on going through everything of hers that felt odd to me and seeing how they match with my current gamestate read-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Yeah this doesn't feel at all correct.In post 3465, xRECKONERx wrote:NMSA/tris are my top two scumreads but that feels too fucking easy. with this setup there's no way this is a slam dunk
It took something like a week from after the push on Flubber came out for him to make the IC defense, and beyond that I didn't really detect this abject dejectedness that would've been present in a scumteam that was entirely in the spotlight for that long.
Among that is that Flubber just carried on like it was nothing during the push, and both of the projected scumpartners were on that wagon at the same time during that push.
NMSA would have to be doing a reverse chainsaw or whatever the term is to be scum with Flubber thanks to the haphazard weird votes on him, which isn't necessarily incorrect but would be a weird thing for him to do just because.
Tris was the slot that put Flubber to l-1 initially when his wagon far overtook everyone else. That's basically suicide.
This all feels like it would require a scum mastermind to pull off with this specific team and I'm really not seeing it with this teamcomp, sorry.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Another reason that team doesn't work.In post 3468, Nimueh wrote:In post 2117, northsidegal wrote:
Mod Notes:
skitter30 is V/LA on weekends.
Nimueh is V/LA while sick.In post 2291, northsidegal wrote:
Mod Notes:
skitter30 is V/LA on weekends.
Nimueh is V/LA while sick.
The heat has a way of getting to you on a clear day out at sea. Brigitte was nervous. Was she next?
Her paniced behavior did not go unnoticed. Soon enough, a crowd of people had surrounded her, questioning her as to knowledge or guilt regarding what happened to the Captain. For Brigitte, it became too much.
Someone started shouting at the crowd, trying to separate them.
"Get back! Give her some space!"
But it was too late. As the crowd parted, she was nowhere to be found, having thrown herself overboard.
Brigitte,Crewman, was lynched Day 1.
Day 1 ends. Day 2 begins.Flubber put Tris at L-2 before Brigitte and Skitter jumped off of that wagon, so Tris is probably town because of this.
It requires a mastermind.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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I'm actually not entirely sure about whether there's a mastermind in this game or not.
I think only Succinct would fit the qualifications necessary for it to be possible.
It would be well outside of my range to plan an elaborate bus like that and to have it get so close before failing, I can't plan specifics like that
NMSA nope
tris nope
Creature nope
Nimueh not her style
Chara doesn't feel like it's within its range to do so? Very rough personality read but doesn't seem likely
XRECKONERx I'm not sure actually, I think he would be much more direct if he wanted to control the game though, seems not to be his style
Skitter can make plans like these, but planning specific details down to the wire enough to parry this kind of gamestate indirectly probably is out of her range
Succinct CAN do this, but I also believe that this slot being scum only works in very specific teams that I can't specifically point to atm, but it will stay in the back of my head while I work
So scum mastermind is unlikely, it is a lot more probable that scum tried to subtly shift the gamestate directly.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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why does this necessarily follow and/or correlate?In post 3483, Succinct wrote:I feel then that looking at Flubber's interactions with others/others' interactions with Flubber is a mistake.
Scum knew they'd be sending someone away, and at least on D2 knew it'd be Flubber.
What we should focus on is individual play.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Enter seems like the kind of player that I was like back in like... 2014.In post 3483, Succinct wrote:Noteworthy: I replaced into this game, wasn't here from start. You should check if Enter's mastermind-worthy.
Very unlikely a scum mastermind, but I will note that there was a drastic change in the modus operandi throughout d2 (thanks to activity drastically dropping) and arguably the end of D1 (wagons converging rather than diverging). This isn't really indicative of anything by itself, it needs a lot of supporting arguments to be suggestive in any direction and that's something I don't think is likely enough to be worth pursuing directly.-
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THIS is fairIn post 3483, Succinct wrote:It's more conductive worrying I'm town, scum kill you, then my lack of charisma leads to loss.
But:
THIS is saying that my strongest tool for scumhunting is not going to be useful here.In post 3491, Succinct wrote:
They aren't entirely linked.In post 3485, Ankamius wrote:
why does this necessarily follow and/or correlate?In post 3483, Succinct wrote:I feel then that looking at Flubber's interactions with others/others' interactions with Flubber is a mistake.
Scum knew they'd be sending someone away, and at least on D2 knew it'd be Flubber.
What we should focus on is individual play.
I've read people's analysis of Flubber's iso + analysis of others' interactions with Flubber.
The entire time I've felt those analyses are off-base; given that, I'd feel it were a mistake even if not for what I said.
Yet, isn't it logical? Scum sent Flubber away. They knew Flubber would be sent away at least on D2. Wouldn't they tailor their actions so Flubber's flip wouldn't point directly to them? That doesn't require a mastermind; it's something they'd do individually: put distance between themselves and Flubber, to not be caught when he's shown scum. (Most scum show strong self-preservation instincts without leadership.)
However, no matter how well-hidden their interactions with Flubber, they can't change the quality of their play.
So hunting off of individual play feels like the route to take.
But what you're suggesting here also requires a few things to be true for your team to work:
1. NMSA thinks that sheeping me throughout d2 is his best odds at surviving, even far enough to be willing to bus Flubber and conftown all but FOUR towns in the process.
2. Elbirn thinks that tearing down my case at the core is his best odds at surviving, and most likely decided that the time he posted his rebuttal to me was the time to do it.
3. NMSA sees that Elbirn gets away with that... and continues hardsheeping.
That's just on day 2 stuff. I haven't gotten to day 1 stuff yet.
I can look into other things on top of that too, but I'm not really sure these mindsets mesh together enough to be likely.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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this is an interesting exchangeIn post 3059, Flubbernugget wrote:
This is a really good point and is probabaly the source of all of this vague "gamestate lynch" bullshitIn post 2888, Elbirn wrote:
You're at the center of a whirlwind of groupthink and a shoddy townbloc and it can kick rocks, homeslice-
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Ankamius Survivor
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that my gamestate read is validIn post 3501, Elbirn wrote:
Can do. I do want to ask, now that you've gotten your two most desired flips (xtoxm/flubber), what have you learned?In post 3497, Ankamius wrote:tell me what your thoughts are when you get them together elbirn
one of the first things I said when I reached that solve was that flubber was the linchpin of it and him flipping would let me pin down what scum have been trying to do all game
which is funny because that exact type of scumplay is... pretty much expected for this sort of setup in the first place
my push on flubberIn post 3501, Elbirn wrote:
My reading comprehension is ass, what is this in regards to / who?In post 3500, Ankamius wrote:even with how big my push on him was?
it was more effective than my posting and the general reaction to it let on, it would have gotten flubber lynched if not for the IC claim-
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Ankamius Survivor
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how do you think scum handled it, or at least how they approached itIn post 3502, Elbirn wrote:Oh jesus you're just talking about flubber
Yeah I think a competent scum team powers through xtoxm lynch and hopes the flub push dies with your confidence when xtoxm flips town. Again, there was enough resistance to the wagon and idk, new day new me, er, gamestate-
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literally meIn post 3553, skitter30 wrote:i think i'm decent enough at reading gamestates that i could sense what i would need to do to make that happen but i don't think i'm good enough at scum to actually do it well if that makes sense