Mini 2059: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Over]

[Ankamius]

you can always tell in late game

do I say it

[Ankamius]

VOTE: tris

[Ankamius]

tbh I really don't like either wagon composition

they both look gross

It's probably not worse than the wagonees.

honestly,

xtoxm is more likely to flip scum
tris is more likely to get town on track faster

:SHRUG:

[Ankamius]

VOTE: xtoxm

[Ankamius]

no

[Ankamius]

that was @nim

but I'm not going to fill the thread with my opinions and philosophy because nobody cares

[Ankamius]

I actually did explain it several times

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Xtoxm
fuck everyone
worst town ever

wow

[Ankamius]

Spoiler:

my focus this game is to find the clearest path to a town win

lynching you early almost never achieves that regardless of your alignment, regardless of my actual read on you

I have gone on record dozens and dozens of times saying that scumlynches are useless and at worst actually

anti-town

to get in a lot of situations, and that opinion is one I will defend to the death

my focus is to put town in the best possible spot in a situation where I am not here to lead

, that means catching as many scum as possible and putting town in a position where it's inevitable they will be lynched

does that help

where it's inevitable those scum will be lynched*

that was awkwardly worded, sorry

If Flubber flips scum like I expect, then I believe I have a complete solve.

Xtoxm + Nimueh would be my choices for his partners.
If one is wrong, skitter30 is a likely substitute if I'm reading the tris wagon correctly (which is somewhat stretched, which is why I'm not confident in this slot being scum).

The one thing I'm suspicious of with this solve is how long the flubber/Xtoxm slots are towards the end of the nmsa wagon for so long, but it's explainable by urap2s read shift and Flubber pushing Urap2 immediately afterwards, I could see this as an attempt at damage control to distance.

Also of note is that the original NMSA wagon is the only time that all three of them aren't voting different people or unvoted entirely

Based on how scattered all the votes were in general even when there was a concentrated push on 1-2 slots, and considering they all never voted together even at the end of the day 1 wagons, that's indicative to me that there's something here

I believe tris is town and the wagon was mostly town lead (barring skitter, I think the unvote was a mistake if she was scum here)
Succinct wouldn't be scum with this
Neither would Chara
Nor xRECKONERx
Elbirn is probtown

Flubbernugget/Xtoxm/Nimueh > skitter30 > NMSA > Creature

This is roughly where I'm at

skitter30 is because of her treatment of the tris wagon, it could have been a distance attempt from Flubber

NMSA because sacrificial sheep to give scum towncred followed by distance attempts once the wagon started losing momentum

Creature because there's less evidence supporting him as town and he had the other 'weird' vote on tris. Shrug.

Flubber is the linchpin to my solve, that's why I want him first

It helps that there's already support there too but eh

What exactly is the case Flubber being scum?

*the case on

It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.

Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.

It's a high information high scum equity lynch

What exactly is the case Flubber being scum?

*the case on

It's a gamestate read, his alignment holds a pretty big key to solving it I think. His actions indicate a scum agenda that I suspect is in play this game and him flipping scum would go a long way towards proving that.

Plus if he ends up flipping town instead, then that's a big sign I need to rethink again.

It's a high information high scum equity lynch

What is that scum agenda?

1. I suspect scum have been mostly following town pushes overall rather than pushing their own, this explains all the disproportionately large amount of small wagons that keep popping up all over the place

2. Wagons tend to stall out and the majority of wagons slowly slip into nothingness when they are no longer in the spotlight, this indicates 'lazy' play where there isn't a wholly dominant force controlling the wagons and when/where they are placed

3. The amount of wagons that keep popping up is large enough in amount that show scum are most likely staying on separate wagons

Flubbernugget isn't making any particular pushes on his own that he intends to go anywhere.
Flubbernugget is mostly following lynches.

Considering my scumread on Nimueh, the two of them were never on the same wagon throughout day one. Nimueh doesn't as much follow the other conditions, but Nimueh was also absent for more than half of day one, so that isn't indicative.

That's two down.

Flubbernuggets only 'push' is on the Xtoxm slot, and a cursory look shows that Urap2 isn't making any particular push that goes anywhere, the only time he votes with Flubber or Nimueh is on the original NMSA wagon, and I have to remember that Urap2 made a pretty dramatic shift in reads to account for him suddenly leaving the wagon.

And now here's the kicker:

Nimueh knew that I had a good record of reading her.
I was scumreading Flubbernugget.
I was scumreading urap2

Urap2 suddenly switches his reads to match mine nearly word for word.

That looks a lot less town from this particular light.

Skitter30 somewhat matches this trend, I think if she was scum she reversed off of tris because she knew she would get heat for that wagon.

Plus there's just some bizarre stuff about her that I've been noting all game that just doesn't quite add up.

It doesn't fit as perfectly as the above three, but it's still notable.

NMSA, again, is pick #5 predominantly because it makes sense for scum to want to double push him down if he got that much heat early on to get free towncred and to reduce the odds of NMSA getting them caught. Plus it makes more sense for Urap2 and Flubber to make the actions they did after the wagon started falling apart if they wanted to recover from that failed gambit.

Does xtoxm give you more info or do you think he's scummier

I'm more worried about the former

I suppose so

I'll compromise on Xtoxm if I have to but I still think Flubber gives me more direct info that I can use for somewhat similar reasons

Ah

It's a case of I feel like I should be trying to sort the entire playerlist this game and sorting you directly is less useful towards that end than sorting other players and fitting you somewhere into where that takes me

That's essentially why I was able to build a solve after only sorting two players as scum

Does xtoxm give you more info or do you think he's scummier

I'm more worried about the former

You think Xtoxm is lower info?

yes

VOTE: Xtoxm

this is going to take a lot less effort to push through and I don't want to put enough effort in to push Flubber to a lynch today despite feeling like it's objectively the best play, since I don't think it's healthy for the gamestate to risk flaring myself up

so I'll just sit in the backseat and just look to shield mislynches if things go off track

I want Flubber mainly because I think Xtoxm obvscummed and I want to flip my other scumread so I have another day phase to make sure my theories are sound or at least that I'm not missing anything huge

I've duly noted that there's a lot of support for both Flubber and Xtoxm but everyone has their own idea for the third, that's going to be my main focus I think since I expect I have a max of 2 scum pegged if past experience is to be trusted

I'd rather not go down that rabbit hole until I have the second flip to work off of

it's frustrating to do a bunch of analysis based on having flips I don't have and then getting those flips only for it to be what I wasn't expecting it to

the reason I was townreading urap2 so strongly is scummy from this newer perspective, creature

:SHRUG:

That's always the first thing I'm suspicious of when I get attacked for my playstyle by people who didn't have a problem with it before

Historically, those slots have flipped scum

Idk skitter

Xtoxm is obvscumming
Flubber makes a lot of sense as a partner

It's the third I'm not as sure on

Like I'd be surprised if that wasn't SvS, it just makes way too much sense with how the game has shaped up

Like please trust me at least for today

If my solve is wrong and xtoxm/Flubber is NOT SvS, then I will step back and rethink

We have time to take lynched like this because we have more than enough time to reshift ourselves if we end up being wrong

And I'm confident enough in my solve that I specifically want it tested

Just noting here

Skitter has been sorting
Chara has been sorting
Nimueh has been sorting
Reck has been sorting
Creature I will trust the townreads of
Succinct has been sorting
tris has been sorting

NMSA is just... there
Elbirn had a sketchy return to the thread

Flubber has had really wooden contributions that make no sense
Xtoxm is just... wild flailing

I honestly think there's good odds that the game is just solved already

These wagons have been stalled long enough that it is very unlikely for the slots that have consistently been around and hunting to be scum (otherwise one would have won out I bet, specifically keeping up this charade to no practical effect is ridiculous scum strategy)

Of the three slots that were wagoned, two have showed signs of caving under the pressure, while the third (tris) never has once

Just another aspect of the gamestate that supports scum being in the mostly lurker slots

I don't really say this enough in games

Whenever I feel like I have a confident solve in a game and enough scum properly pegged to be able to push town into a win, I'm always much more afraid of getting NKed and town being thrown off track without me there than of getting my scumreads lynched

I don't want to get these lynches because I forced people to sheep me with no other choice

I want town to be set up to be able to get them without me there at all

And having someone who can hold a lot of influence over the rest of the town fall prey to a paranoic mindset as a solve is being put into effect is one of the single worst scenarios I can think of

I want to avoid that scenario much more than I want either of these lynches

And if I don't deliver a scum today then I'm probably just going to mostly sheep tbh, because if I'm that far off then my reads are never going to improve

like

idk how we can reconcile our playstyle differences because I hold the opinion that the information is 5x more valuable than the scumflip

so I'm not sure explaining more is worth bothering with

one thing I will say though is that I'm not actually trying to find the entire team, right now

I'm trying to find the method that will allow me to deduce the entire team (or at least narrow it down enough that I can focus entirely on getting town on the same page) in the most efficient way

and currently that way is by flipping flubbernugget

well, I mean... sorry :V

this is the best approach I can take with this game, I can't do the casing judge-by-actions thing because I literally cannot think that way and the years I spent trying was when I was horrible at this, so

the problem with it is that I've had to take extra liberties with it so I had to gamble all my credibility on having a good lead on the first try, so if it fails then I'm effectively sunk and it's not worth trying to build a second one, this playerlist won't trust me with that a second time and I don't have the tools available to convince you all the way you would need to be convinced otherwise

ank has already positioned to go after me if flub flips town and people are saying they wont reconsider anything on a townflip
so what is the fucking point

You would be correct if I hadn't pointed out quite a few times that I was putting all my credibility on the like with the Flubber lynch and that I would rethink everything upon him flipping town, which by the way close to nobody has acknowledged other than the other slot you are also scumreading, skitter.

But yes keep lying to suit your needs and avoid doing any real work on making your scumreads accountable or really anything to try to move the game forward, Xtoxm. It reads a lot more like you're trying to damage control a shitty situation to throw a fucking tantrum and OMGUS all the slots pushing you the hardest rather than try to town the fuck up and try to convince us to look elsewhere.

And saying I'm tunneled isn't an excuse, Elbirn has already done it and it took remarkably little effort from him to do so. Your response to this pressure

is
not
town.

Flubber has had very lackluster posting, has posted literally nothing the last few days (ftr this points to Flubber being the scum of the two if these wagons are TvS), has generically responded with discrediting-style statements towards the suspicion on him, and really hasn't been making any counterpushes or trying to dismantle the wagon on him at all.

That's not necessarily scum by itself, but the way the gamestate is evolving around him makes aggressive uselessness a strong strategy in this situation.

My position here is shaky. There's a lot of support of these two wagons individually but there's little overall cohesion and the rest of the players that really haven't already hopped on are very unlikely to.

Why would Flubber need to do anything when the wagon on him is already stalled? All he needs to do is not say anything too scummy and he's already set to be released from being today's lynch. The support against the wagons is not going to get higher than it already is without a huge centralized push as it is until it gets too close to deadline. Plus my influence is actually waning over time, and there is the very real threat that if it gets low enough, the wagons will dissipate if for no better reason because I'm trying to lead them.

I'm not entirely sure who the third is here, my best guess is they're somebody trying to subtly shift away from this dichotomy, but I can't point to a specific person atm

Plus I can see scum adopting this low morale type of strategy in a game where there's obvtowns popping up and there's no nightkill to deal with them.

That's actually a big reason why I'm really suspicious of the Xtoxm slot, his predecessor put in a lot of raw effort at the start of the game and I can see someone who was in a good spot get really discouraged at how town were starting to get their shit together, only one of them was looking town enough to escape the town's wrath for a while, and the other two were not getting... well, anywhere really.

Xtoxm having no presence the entire game.
Flubber feeling really wooden and pushing like he doesn't really care.

I could see a few other slots fitting this general trend, too. Tris and Elbirn are the closest fits that I can see right now, maybe NMSA too.

Actually now that I think about it, it makes sense from a flubber+xtoxm+NMSA team

my credibility is shot no matter what happens so me trying to lead at any point is effectively useless

my only option left is to make the plays that create the highest possible odds of town getting their shit together

and currently that's just getting a lynch through

Here you go nim

Here's the majority of my solving and theory posts today

[Ankamius]

this is blacklist territory if xtoxm flips town

so I hope he flips scum just for that

[Ankamius]

you death tunneled me in another recently completed game
and youve done the exact same thing here
its not fun being death tunneled
i dont think you would make the same mistake again which is why i sr you here
you can always point at something and say i could have played better
this was very much my town game tho
im a universal sr here and my lynch was inevitable so the self hammer really means f all
as shown by nmsa trying to hammer me anyway
if youre town you should work on lynching ank, there are contradictions all over her play
like pushing only lurkers while claiming a sr on you, when i never endgame here

I've been out of my scum range for well beyond the entire day phase

[Ankamius]

I'm not sure why you dont make this criticism of me instead

Mainly because skitter has been giving me those kinds of feels pretty much all game.

[Ankamius]

The way she reacts to being scumread just makes me want to not do so. I hope scum-nim doesnt react like that? Have you played with her as scum?

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Scumnim does react like that.

[Ankamius]

this is blacklist territory if xtoxm flips town

so I hope he flips scum just for that

Wow really? There’s very few players I’d blacklist and none who are currently alive in this game. But yeah if he flips town, his play here is objectively horrible - for me not anywhere closet to blacklist worthy though but to each their own I guess.

I probably will avoid ever playing with him again, yes.

[Ankamius]

I'd be fine with being wagoned tomorrow

I think I need a good struggle to care about this game now tbh

[Ankamius]

Idk nim

Call it an experiment to see if town can get anything done without me

[Ankamius]

my hobby: saying im out of my scum range when im scum

Mafia would be a lot more fun if I could pull shit like this off as scum

I'd probably be one of the stronger scum players on the site instead of meh

[Ankamius]

Actually I wanted to hear from skitter, but without tipping her off that I was

[Ankamius]

if flub is scum ank is very likely his buddy
not sure about that ic claim in this setup but you'll see soon on that ig

btw odds are any scumteam with me in it with this playerlist has me having a large impact on how we are playing and this just sounds like a stupid plan

[Ankamius]

multiple people here can confirm that I play very actively in scum pts

[Ankamius]

if flub is scum ank is very likely his buddy
not sure about that ic claim in this setup but you'll see soon on that ig

btw odds are any scumteam with me in it with this playerlist has me having a large impact on how we are playing and this just sounds like a stupid plan

BTW just also noting

This is a very viable plan for me to come up with but it requires Flubber to die for it, not delay like he did

[Ankamius]

Oof

[Ankamius]

wow

[Ankamius]

I won't be smug

I'm just sad

[Ankamius]

I'll have more to say when I'm back from work

I'm really not liking skitter though, I'll have to reread her

[Ankamius]

You know what, fuck it

I'm going to revisit the game entirely and build a new solve

The strength of my playstyle is not on read accuracy but choosing the correct read to push and Flubber being scum confirmed that, so I'm not going to lie down and let people take over

Reck also needs a relook btw

[Ankamius]

NMSA is a reasonable choice too

Hmm

[Ankamius]

Do you have any idea how glad I am that I built a ton of VCs for myself like a week ago

[Ankamius]

(3) NotMySpamAccount: tictac, tris, Flubbernugget
(3) Ankamius: skitter30, Brigitte, Enter
(3) Brigitte: Elbirn, Ankamius, Chara

:THONK:

[Ankamius]

Flubber was on the tris wagon

It's not impossible that scum dog piled on tris (1 more scum on that wagon) since that would make Brigitte look a lot worse upon a tris flip

Also just noting here that skitter was the only slot that didn't vote for either lynch wagon

Just noting (:

[Ankamius]

I don't think the IC thing was planned, that was way too clumsily done

The only way I could see it being specifically planned is if there were already attempts to derail that wagon by other scum, which points to reck and Elbirn most obviously but I might be missing somebody

[Ankamius]

Ftr I think it's far more likely that scum voted together on day 2, scum were not in enough danger d1 to warrant any approach other than the distancing approach

[Ankamius]

Tris is town via gamestate, D1 play STRONGLY suggests scum were focused on distancing thanks to the amount of small wagons that kept popping up and stalling

There was very little strong pushing in any direction until towards the end other than the NMSA one at the start of the day

[Ankamius]

Why is Elbirn town?

[Ankamius]

What's Charas plan here exactly?

[Ankamius]

I'll look at succinct later, that slot isn't super important to me atm

I'd still like to lock that slot down before end of day though, I'd much rather not hit a situation where they're scum and end the day before I really look at them and just kill me, then charisma through to victory

[Ankamius]

I'll do a deeper analysis when I can get back to my desktop

I don't have enough time for more than surface level thoughts atm

[Ankamius]

I understand why you’re not as confident as I am, on Succinct town.

They're a very good scum player

I wouldn't even call pushing on Flubber after the IC thing town indicative

[Ankamius]

What's Charas plan here exactly?

what are you thinking about me here, Ank? it's true i never fought the Flubber lynch, but i was also always going after Xtoxm.

Undecided atm

Can you go more into skitter for me please, her posts today feel fake

[Ankamius]

like i can't even argue with people wanting to lynch me. my defense of flubber looks really really bad and i cannot defend it because it was shit based on gut. and couple that with me leading the brigitte charge d1 and yeah, i get the desire to lynch me. im not even sure i particularly have it in me to fight the lynch because it's deserved.

Just hunt

[Ankamius]

Like out of everybody who has posted, skitter and reck are the two that haven't tried to bounce back and re-search for the scumteam

I don't like this

The slots that are absent are going to start looking real bad in around a day too

It's time to get your shit together, town. Tomorrow is only going to be harder if we fuck it up today

[Ankamius]

Can you go more into skitter for me please, her posts today feel fake

do you have it in you to read the game she linked?
i'd expect scum skitter to get burnt out at some point (and i'm still keeping an eye out).
not really getting the fake feeling at this moment.

i'll be able to give you a much more definitive confident townread once she's made good on grilling me.

Ngl

Meta on games I haven't played in personally aren't going to do anything for me

I'm more looking for signs that it is a personality tell and how valid it is, because I plan on going through everything of hers that felt odd to me and seeing how they match with my current gamestate read

[Ankamius]

NMSA/tris are my top two scumreads but that feels too fucking easy. with this setup there's no way this is a slam dunk

Yeah this doesn't feel at all correct.

It took something like a week from after the push on Flubber came out for him to make the IC defense, and beyond that I didn't really detect this abject dejectedness that would've been present in a scumteam that was entirely in the spotlight for that long.

Among that is that Flubber just carried on like it was nothing during the push, and both of the projected scumpartners were on that wagon at the same time during that push.

NMSA would have to be doing a reverse chainsaw or whatever the term is to be scum with Flubber thanks to the haphazard weird votes on him, which isn't necessarily incorrect but would be a weird thing for him to do just because.

Tris was the slot that put Flubber to l-1 initially when his wagon far overtook everyone else. That's basically suicide.

This all feels like it would require a scum mastermind to pull off with this specific team and I'm really not seeing it with this teamcomp, sorry.

[Ankamius]

Votecount 1.14

tris(5)

~ skitter30(221), Brigitte(240), Elbirn(217), Creature(36), Flubbernugget(78)

Brigitte(4)

~ Ankamius(304), tris(119), xRECKONERx(124), Xtoxm(255)

skitter30(1)

~ Nimueh(192)

Nimueh(1)

~ NotMySpamAccount(79)

Elbirn(1)

~ Chara(137)

Ankamius(1)

~ Succinct(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-08 00:58:59).

Mod Notes:

skitter30 is V/LA on weekends.
Nimueh is V/LA while sick.

Votecount 1.Final

Brigitte(7)

~ Ankamius(304), tris(119), xRECKONERx(124), Xtoxm(255), Chara(137), Succinct(55), Brigitte(240)

tris(3)

~ Elbirn(217), Creature(36), Flubbernugget(78)

skitter30(1)

~ Nimueh(192)

Nimueh(1)

~ NotMySpamAccount(79)


Not Voting (1): skitter30(221)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-08 00:58:59).

Mod Notes:

skitter30 is V/LA on weekends.
Nimueh is V/LA while sick.

The heat has a way of getting to you on a clear day out at sea. Brigitte was nervous. Was she next?

Her paniced behavior did not go unnoticed. Soon enough, a crowd of people had surrounded her, questioning her as to knowledge or guilt regarding what happened to the Captain. For Brigitte, it became too much.

Someone started shouting at the crowd, trying to separate them.

"Get back! Give her some space!"

But it was too late. As the crowd parted, she was nowhere to be found, having thrown herself overboard.

Brigitte,

Crewman

, was lynched Day 1.

Day 1 ends. Day 2 begins.

Flubber put Tris at L-2 before Brigitte and Skitter jumped off of that wagon, so Tris is probably town because of this.

Another reason that team doesn't work.

It requires a mastermind.

[Ankamius]

I'm actually not entirely sure about whether there's a mastermind in this game or not.
I think only Succinct would fit the qualifications necessary for it to be possible.

It would be well outside of my range to plan an elaborate bus like that and to have it get so close before failing, I can't plan specifics like that
NMSA nope
tris nope
Creature nope
Nimueh not her style
Chara doesn't feel like it's within its range to do so? Very rough personality read but doesn't seem likely
XRECKONERx I'm not sure actually, I think he would be much more direct if he wanted to control the game though, seems not to be his style
Skitter can make plans like these, but planning specific details down to the wire enough to parry this kind of gamestate indirectly probably is out of her range
Succinct CAN do this, but I also believe that this slot being scum only works in very specific teams that I can't specifically point to atm, but it will stay in the back of my head while I work

So scum mastermind is unlikely, it is a lot more probable that scum tried to subtly shift the gamestate directly.

[Ankamius]

I'll be back later, reading into skitter is next because she's suspect #1 for that type of slot and I need to do a really deep analysis of her to be able to pin down as scum or rule her out entirely.

And for that I need to be at my desktop

[Ankamius]

I guess it's technically possible that scum gave up on saving Flubber, but that still doesn't really gel with how Flubber was playing? Maybe it need it to sit in my head for a bit

[Ankamius]

I feel then that looking at Flubber's interactions with others/others' interactions with Flubber is a mistake.
Scum knew they'd be sending someone away, and at least on D2 knew it'd be Flubber.
What we should focus on is individual play.

why does this necessarily follow and/or correlate?

[Ankamius]

flubber was too, but he had to be evacuated because he HAD to do that IC gambit to survive

[Ankamius]

Noteworthy: I replaced into this game, wasn't here from start. You should check if Enter's mastermind-worthy.

Enter seems like the kind of player that I was like back in like... 2014.

Very unlikely a scum mastermind, but I will note that there was a drastic change in the modus operandi throughout d2 (thanks to activity drastically dropping) and arguably the end of D1 (wagons converging rather than diverging). This isn't really indicative of anything by itself, it needs a lot of supporting arguments to be suggestive in any direction and that's something I don't think is likely enough to be worth pursuing directly.

[Ankamius]

It's more conductive worrying I'm town, scum kill you, then my lack of charisma leads to loss.

THIS is fair

But:

I feel then that looking at Flubber's interactions with others/others' interactions with Flubber is a mistake.
Scum knew they'd be sending someone away, and at least on D2 knew it'd be Flubber.
What we should focus on is individual play.

why does this necessarily follow and/or correlate?

They aren't entirely linked.
I've read people's analysis of Flubber's iso + analysis of others' interactions with Flubber.

The entire time I've felt those analyses are off-base; given that, I'd feel it were a mistake even if not for what I said.

Yet, isn't it logical? Scum sent Flubber away. They knew Flubber would be sent away at least on D2. Wouldn't they tailor their actions so Flubber's flip wouldn't point directly to them? That doesn't require a mastermind; it's something they'd do individually: put distance between themselves and Flubber, to not be caught when he's shown scum. (Most scum show strong self-preservation instincts without leadership.)

However, no matter how well-hidden their interactions with Flubber, they can't change the quality of their play.

So hunting off of individual play feels like the route to take.

THIS is saying that my strongest tool for scumhunting is not going to be useful here.

But what you're suggesting here also requires a few things to be true for your team to work:

1. NMSA thinks that sheeping me throughout d2 is his best odds at surviving, even far enough to be willing to bus Flubber and conftown all but FOUR towns in the process.
2. Elbirn thinks that tearing down my case at the core is his best odds at surviving, and most likely decided that the time he posted his rebuttal to me was the time to do it.
3. NMSA sees that Elbirn gets away with that... and continues hardsheeping.

That's just on day 2 stuff. I haven't gotten to day 1 stuff yet.

I can look into other things on top of that too, but I'm not really sure these mindsets mesh together enough to be likely.

[Ankamius]

You're at the center of a whirlwind of groupthink and a shoddy townbloc and it can kick rocks, homeslice

This is a really good point and is probabaly the source of all of this vague "gamestate lynch" bullshit

this is an interesting exchange

[Ankamius]

tell me what your thoughts are when you get them together elbirn

[Ankamius]

even with how big my push on him was?

[Ankamius]

tell me what your thoughts are when you get them together elbirn

Can do. I do want to ask, now that you've gotten your two most desired flips (xtoxm/flubber), what have you learned?

that my gamestate read is valid

one of the first things I said when I reached that solve was that flubber was the linchpin of it and him flipping would let me pin down what scum have been trying to do all game

which is funny because that exact type of scumplay is... pretty much expected for this sort of setup in the first place

even with how big my push on him was?

My reading comprehension is ass, what is this in regards to / who?

my push on flubber

it was more effective than my posting and the general reaction to it let on, it would have gotten flubber lynched if not for the IC claim

[Ankamius]

Oh jesus you're just talking about flubber

Yeah I think a competent scum team powers through xtoxm lynch and hopes the flub push dies with your confidence when xtoxm flips town. Again, there was enough resistance to the wagon and idk, new day new me, er, gamestate

how do you think scum handled it, or at least how they approached it

[Ankamius]

well that's easy to answer

the IC play happened when Flubber was at L-2 (specifically after I unvoted because I wasn't done yet)

[Ankamius]

xtoxm and tris were at 2 votes when that happened actually

so flubber was the top wagon by far

[Ankamius]

no

I mean mastermind as in "planning an intricate bus on flubber that will never go through"

the way d2 progressed towards the end would require very very good scum player to be able to coordinate properly I think

[Ankamius]

i think i'm decent enough at reading gamestates that i could sense what i would need to do to make that happen but i don't think i'm good enough at scum to actually do it well if that makes sense

literally me

[Ankamius]

Something keeps bugging me about Ank. I don't know what it is. Every logical bone in my body says she should be town but I keep getting premonition flashes of "this is the mastermind that pulled this whole thing off" and it eats away at me. I think Ank's continued reprisal of "omg this is so outside my scum range" is what's really bugging me. I hate self meta, especially when it is repeated over and over as a way to clear yourself as town.

I don't think scum would post this

[Ankamius]

yes

Pedit: @3561

[Ankamius]

it fits tonally

he was just proven wrong on a read that was highly contested, so it makes sense that he's a lot less intense now than he was

the content itself hasn't really changed, just the way he's delivered it

[Ankamius]

just general psychology

[Ankamius]

I promise I'm getting to the thing today

I have the day off

[Ankamius]

I'm really hating myself for not being in the habit of quoting everything I respond to atm

[Ankamius]

:V

[Ankamius]

Ok so for real

I don't like the homogenized gamestate we are in right now

Either scum are pocketed to hell and back or there's enough mislynches at the bottom of the chain to hide them until they can break the townblock that's been forming apart

In a vacuum I'd expect at least one scum in the active posters atm and currently I think it's most likely to be urap2 via toneread

Chara could be scum this game but I also incorrectly scumread it last time we played in the same game so I don't trust that read as much

NMSA is probably town if I had to guess

I don't think this was too far off the mark

[Ankamius]

As much as both of his main pushes skeeve me out reck looks better after his reads list than before. The fake anger thing I pointed out stemmed from the fact that I really didn't see anything that looked like provocation from me or Enter to actually irritate him in any reasonable way. It made his posting seem like he was more playing to a character than being genuinely crass. That was why I decided to unvote for him when the wagon was forming. I wanted as few irritants to reck at the time to see what he would and wouldn't get pissy about. That ended up being moot by the LAL push anyway.

As previously mentioned, I'm liking urap for scum. His pushes off the nmsa wagon were basically just a few new votes and wagon solicitations. And when nothing happened, they just tried the same thing with a new head. It's not really a productive way to try and form reads and doesn't come off as actually trying to solve the game.

Ank is looking pretty scummy too.

:THONK:

[Ankamius]

Ok so for real

I don't like the homogenized gamestate we are in right now

Either scum are pocketed to hell and back or there's enough mislynches at the bottom of the chain to hide them until they can break the townblock that's been forming apart

In a vacuum I'd expect at least one scum in the active posters atm and currently I think it's most likely to be urap2 via toneread

Chara could be scum this game but I also incorrectly scumread it last time we played in the same game so I don't trust that read as much

NMSA is probably town if I had to guess

I don't think this was too far off the mark

Who was active at the time?

iirc it was basically everyone on the NMSA wagon?

skitter/urap2/enter/Brigitte/reck are the ones I specifically remember but that might not be everybody or I'm falsely remembering someone

this was one of my first posts after I replaced back in on this account so I don't count

[Ankamius]

Does anyone want to explain why they're voting me?

And, I mean reasons other than being an alternative to Brigitte. Does anyone who scumreads me want to explain why?

I'm pretty confident there's scum on my wagon.

That's not particularly enlightening

Your point?

That you don't have one.

Do you scumread me?

I'm feeling better about it than I was 30 seconds ago

I'm feeling better about it than I was 30 seconds ago

Did scumread anything about me before this?

*Did you

[Ankamius]

oh that reminds me: is forgetting that the game is nightless ai at all?

:thinking:

[Ankamius]

skitter30 is because of her treatment of the tris wagon, it could have been a distance attempt from Flubber

[Ankamius]

idc

I feel like I'm the first NK for most scumteams here anyways so I'm just going to assume every day is my last

I think this setup is mountainous right? So no tprs in this game. If you are, it would likely mean that your reads are probably on the right track.

[Ankamius]

idc

I feel like I'm the first NK for most scumteams here anyways so I'm just going to assume every day is my last

I think this setup is mountainous right? So no tprs in this game. If you are, it would likely mean that your reads are probably on the right track.

what makes you think the setup is mountainous

Brigitte flip and my role pm. I have no knowledge of any PRs and Brigitte flip, made me think there are none. I guess if we ever flip a PR, it would mean I’m wrong in that case.

[Ankamius]

Spoiler: skitter feels weird #1

i don't think i much like your read progression on me tbh

the fact that it's *me* you've lost a townread on is not really the problem i'm having, it's more that the things you're bringing up i don't think are actually, like, scummy, or reasons to drop a townread.

a) not sure why me being paranoid of you is sketchy, we've done this song-and-dance before (coalition. although, tbf, you did think i was scummy there for being parnoid of obvtown!you and trying to undermine your position in the townbloc, so i guess there is precedent for you thinking i'm scummy for being paranoid of you, tbf)

b) dinging me for doing the same thing i did in prey is ... quite odd tbh, and i'm having some trouble wrapping my head around why you think that's odd/of-note.

c) i think that referring to me incorporating the currently nightless aspect of the game into my reads 'tmi' is ridiculous and borderline shading given that it's something that's in the mod's like third post of the game. of *course* that's going to influence how i approach the game, *especially* after jingle's game.

p-edit oh hi i'm around-ish i guess. i was kinda typing this and getting distracted doing other things

I don't like 1923

Ugh I'm really not sure now

I don't like 1923

Ugh I'm really not sure now

do tell

I thought the case itself was town but not necessarily compelling, and the way you approached that post gave a pretty strong impression to me that you were looking to discredit it rather than debate it

Like I hadn't seen your tone drastically shift away from what you're saying so far this game, but it definitely is there

I don't like 1923

Ugh I'm really not sure now

do tell

I thought the case itself was town but not necessarily compelling, and the way you approached that post gave a pretty strong impression to me that you were looking to discredit it rather than debate it

Like I hadn't seen your tone drastically shift away from what you're saying so far this game, but it definitely is there

i feel like someone actually, like, scumreading me (and it getting some amount of support!) at this stage makes the game more ... idk the right word ... compelling maybe in that it doesn't happen that often and i feel like i actually have something immediate to argue about and like invest in if that makes sense, especially when i had been feeling liek the dayphase was starting to drag

like i don't get scumread that often and it is kinda fun and/or challenging to try outargue whatever it is; i also get kinda cocky in that i do think i can outargue most things thrown at me, and someone scumreading me when i dont' think they should be kinda gives me sometihng immediate and interesting to argue about and get invested in

yeah idk how well i explained that. i do agree that i approached that a bit differently emotionally that i did most of the rest of the game

But... If you were getting more invested because of that argument, then why did it feel like you were specifically trying to shut it down at the source? You didn't sound excited, you sounded insecure.

But... If you were getting more invested because of that argument, then why did it feel like you were specifically trying to shut it down at the source? You didn't sound excited, you sounded insecure.

idk
i didn't feel insecure, i felt like i had something to argue about
i don't really feel like i was trying to shut it down at the source. maybe i came on kinda strong but i dont think that's at all the ame thing

Spoiler: skitter feels weird #2

maybe the nks turn back on when we lynch scum, idk

i have to at some point go back and look at the circumstances of the votes on the brigitte wagon but off the cuff if there's scum on there i'd guess it to be between: {reck/tris/succint}

kinda want to do this for now until i sort out how i feel about the brigitte/tris wagons

VOTE: flubber
i have like no read on him and can't really remember much of anything he's said this game

Skitters post to start the day feels a bit out of place too for some reason

the entire post just feels... weird

it's setup spec

followed by saying that there may be scum in half the lynch wagon

then instead of sorting them, uses her vote to try to sort somebody else...?

like those are thoughts that make sense but the way they're ordered and written feels a lot more like she didn't have a whole lot to say but felt compelled to put more down on the page

it doesn't fit the context of what her thought processes have looked like to me

Spoiler: skitter feels weird #3

so i'm only townreading like 2.5 people rn which is troubling (ank, elbirn, kinda chara. i guess maybe succinct too by virtue of the fact that town needs to be somewhere)

i'm also only scumreading like 1.5 people rn,one of whom is the ic claim, which is also troubling (flubber, kinda xtoxm)

my reads on: tris, nimueh, creature, reck, nmsa don't really exist and/or hover around nullscum which is really disappointing in a game this long

tris is like .... really luckluster and like around and asking vague fluffy questions but isn't actually doing anything
chara is probably somewhere above the nullread but it's not a very strong read rn
there were a few times a couple of weeks back when i interacted with them in real time and that felt super townie but it was long enough ago that basing a townread on that feels :/

idk how to sort tris because she's super passive and i think to read chara again i'd want to try to talk to them in real time again

so uh

do you all remember the several times I've expressed that skitter feels weird

this is another of those times

put in Chara and take out skitter and you have my list I think

I'm townreading skitter mostly because of her edge.

ngl now that I've stepped back for a while and watched her do her own thing the last couple days, she feels like a lot of what she's saying has an agenda behind it

like she's trying to subtly sabotage my efforts without outright fighting it due to how I've been reacting to it

uh... that's a *really* interesting interpretation of how i've been playing

it's not ridiculous

the game picked up steam again when I started my push, there's several very easy mislynches to push through when town doesn't care enough to sort them properly

so what's strange about looking to work around me while helping me set myself up to fail?

i mean given that i've been like sheeping you *quite* a lot i'm not really sure where you think i'm sabotoging you or like working around you

Just going to point out that tris was the cw to both of these flips

Going to bed shortly but i'm around for a few min
I was mad about brigitte, now i just feel resigned

I want to lynch tris tomorrow (barring flubber not proving his ic-ness), and yeah, that should have happened already

Nmsa's scum equity goes up since urap and nmsa arent scum together

Not really listening to ank's reads anymore, sorry @ank

What's Charas plan here exactly?

what are you thinking about me here, Ank? it's true i never fought the Flubber lynch, but i was also always going after Xtoxm.

Undecided atm

Can you go more into skitter for me please, her posts today feel fake

[Ankamius]

2294 looks even worse with a flubber scumflip, skitter

[Ankamius]

and that's the problem skitter

when I look for slots that look like they're trying to chip away at the supports of my position, you jump up to the #1 spot

xtoxm turned out to be town and
when I start becoming less hinged, you supported breaking it down

I can't get over my gut telling me that your approach was just

wrong

this entire time and I only picked up on it in specific points
I can't get over my gut telling me that your approach at the beginning of the game was too jagged to be town

something about your play is just... not town

and I'm fucking pissed off about it because I not only can't explain it in a way that would make sense for everybody else, but I know that if I tried, you're charismatic enough to shut it down regardless of alignment

I have no idea how to continue with that from here

[Ankamius]

i disagree that my posts are agenda-y or that i was subtly trying to sabotage you (again, when you wanted flubber/xtoxm i repeatedly decided to push my partner and get spooked off the mislynch more than once even though you were pressuring me to join the mislynch????)

I can see you being scum in spite of that anyways, you got spooked off the tris wagon d1 too and iirc you were ambivalent about the Brigitte wagon

if you wanted Brigitte dead and didn't want to be seen directly supporting it, you joining the tris wagon and then hopping off when it got traction makes sense
your reads have gone from strong to weak to strong to weak throughout the game, I'd have to double check but I suspect they coincide with when the gamestate muddies or not

like... idk

you've said you are a competent gamestate reader, I could potentially see you even being willing to eat the flubber lynch if both you and your partner were in a good enough spot to either out-charisma me or to direct reads towards mislynches twice in a row

[Ankamius]

fuck me this game is going to give me a migraine

[Ankamius]

the best part about all this is that even knowing that trusting my intuition is almost always the correct move

I can't bring myself to be confident enough to actually push it

[Ankamius]

3150 was made at 12:50 pm.

So NMSA actually voted for Xtoxm twice but since the second vote was post-hammerUNVOTE: , it wouldn’t get counted, approximately 7 hours before Xtoxm self-hammered.

So, Reck can probably only be scum with Elbirn and Skitter probably only with NMSA, so gun to head, I think scum is Flubber/NMSA/Skitter.

I think NMSA “hammered” because he knew his vote wouldn’t be counted post-hammer and that no one would notice but thankfully Tris caught that.

So rn, I want to vote for one of them I think.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: NMSA

all of this went right over my head

[Ankamius]

And this is keeping in mind that they would have to reveal 5 town players? That's basically what was at stake with the Flubber lynch.

it really depends on who her partner is I think

[Ankamius]

I'm just compromised

I'm stepping back for a day or two

[Ankamius]

You know

Fuck it, I'll just deal with the heartbreak post-game

Elbirn - Nimueh - NMSA - Creature should have all the scum.

[Ankamius]

Reck should not be cleared tomorrow

I don't feel like nim is scum but that comment stuck out like a sore thumb to me

[Ankamius]

I'm staying away from this nim wagon thing with a 10 foot pole

I'm already compromised enough without that adding to it

[Ankamius]

idk what 'reck should not be cleared tomorrow' means

If the game doesn't end, recks towncred vanishes for me

[Ankamius]

Ok yeah I need to leave the thread

I just got that same god damn feeling again

[Ankamius]

You have a set of brass balls for outing yourself to me so fast Succinct

If you hadn't have been on that alt, I would've caught you lol

[Ankamius]

I get that shit every game enter

This game was just the one that broke the camels back because I knew that most of the blowback had to be town

I had a lot of shitty mistakes I had no business making this game but the Flubber push really wasn't one, my confidence was justified

[Ankamius]

And no, that replace out was not tactical. The timing was... awkward is all.

[Ankamius]

Meh

I don't think my strategy D1 was good for the game in general, I wish I didn't do that

[Ankamius]

My overall strategy

I was trying to do a similar strategy to necromancer where I derailed a wagon onto myself and then obvtowned to switch the gamestate around, only I think it made the burnout happen instead of anything else

I was right that there was a scum in the active posters, I just got the exact read wrong :V

[Ankamius]

And I caught so many things of succinct that were just... wrong

"that's weird, it doesn't sound like the town succinct I remember....... eh, it's just the alt creating a playstyle shift" is the type of thought I had at least half a dozen times all game

I really have no excuse for letting that go

[Ankamius]

Also skitter gets hugs

[Ankamius]

I would have played around succinct differently if there were nks

[Ankamius]

So uh

Meta is horrible without a personality read to back it up

[Ankamius]

Thank you for replacing in Tohru

[Ankamius]

I didn't catch succinct or enter, the two people I really should be able to catch in this playerlist :S

[Ankamius]

Hm?

[Ankamius]

And no nightkills denies info too :V

Plus the self hammers...

[Ankamius]

Thanks this post game needed more negativity

[Ankamius]

scum should've won because town essentially imploded without their help :V

most of the fighting until the endgame was TvT violence

[Ankamius]

-shrug-

yeah, there was a lot of tvt fighting. i think it's true that for most games most fights will be tvt, and that's just numbers, although maybe it also involves a propensity for most scum players to try to avoid conflict.

not trying to attack anyone's play here, but i don't think scum did a good enough job of getting townread or fighting the succinct wagon as they needed to. enter was pretty much the only secret agent who actively got townread – succinct didn't really make enough of an impact as was necessary. (although creature was generally townread)

i dunno. like, once the succinct wagon started it never really went away. most of succinct's responses only served to increase the scumreads, and the only real counterwagon attempts that went anywhere came from town.


it seems to me like succinct was still getting lynched there regardless of whether it ended the game or not. it seems to me like the only reason flubbernugget

wasn't

lynched was the setup. i guess i just don't see it.


do scum deserve to win a game where they're not really all that townread just because there's a lot of town infighting? i don't know.

succinct had a double disadvantage

1. they have had very little time to spend on the game, I know this to be a fact (which is a big reason I never brought it up)
2. there were circumstances in place that prevented them from being proactive this game even if they had the activity to allow it

I think they had no choice but to hope to fly under the radar regardless, it would've been gamelosing to attempt otherwise

[Ankamius]

This specific game was scum sided because of how it played out

The setup itself idk, I think it really really really depends on the playerlist tbh