Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[Something_Smart]

Damn.

[Something_Smart]

Hmm, and writing this out now makes me think that maybe we do want to force town gun to claim now (but not which night). If we get one with no cc's it's a confirmed town and if we get a cc we get a 1 in 2 mafia which is a neat deal. But if the claim only happens when strung up then the info becomes effectively worthless. So I'm on team Gun-claim-now. That track for everyone else?

Disagree, if someone is run up and claims gun, then we see if there's a CC. If there is, and either of them claims to be able to shoot the next night, we let them shoot and lynch whoever said so if the shot fails. If neither of them can shoot the next night, just lynch the one who claimed first, it's not as if we get no info from that-- we still get a 1 in 2.

If gun claims D1 they always get shot N1 and then we lose our conftown. Even worse if they're not N1 gun because then they don't even get a chance to shoot.

[Something_Smart]

if we run someone up today and they claim gun, and the real gun sees this and knows that they're mafia, they shouldn't counterclaim. Instead they should just shoot them (on whatever night they can), because they're mafia and the mafia probably took guns (and even if they took roses, it's not guaranteed they'd be on the same night(s) as the town gun).

Not sure about this for three reasons. One, it's helpful to have a confscum dead so that we can scumhunt off of associatives. Two, especially if this occurs D1, we may give a mafia gun an extra shot by letting them live an extra night. And three, it's unlikely that scum would counterclaim to lynch a gun claim when they can just shoot them-- so counterclaims can PROBABLY be trusted. That does depend on the numbers though, because we don't know if scum are going to hit active roses or not.

[Something_Smart]

Something Smart why aren't you voting me yet?

Why would you expect me to be?

[Something_Smart]

Vote: Something_Smart

Oh and this vote wasn't random, by the by. S_S's entrance was not good. Actively choosing to decline the gambit choice (be the third vote on the Pops wagon v. start your own RVS wagon) and just post an empty phrase as he did feels like he was trying to slip into the thread, look like he's arrived but dodge having to enter crossfires early.

I rarely participate in RVS. I don't change my vote much, especially early, and it has more meaning to myself and to others when they can see my vote on a VC and immediately know it's serious. Argue with me on whether that's a good idea all you want, but it's what I do, and I don't use my vote a lot on D1 anyway because I usually focus on townhunting.

Also, I play by egosearch. So I still wanted to post, even though I had nothing to say.

[Something_Smart]

Oh god it's a literal actual trust tell

"Trust that I'm not a bad person, so I'm town"

Well, no. It's not a trust tell unless you explicitly uphold it as both town and scum, and you explicitly insist that you uphold it as both town and scum, and I don't think e said anything amounting to the latter. Without that it's just a regular tell.

That said, I hope e would know not to intentionally mess with your feelings as either alignment...

[Something_Smart]

Unfounded accusations could have subbed in for a vote if he cares so much about the voting record.

Kinda confused by this, are you suggesting that it's towny to make random accusations in your first post?

[Something_Smart]

Why do you say that?

[Something_Smart]

I very rarely see random accusations made early and not accompanied by an RVS vote by players of either alignment, so even if it is town indicative, the fact that the vast majority of people don't do it means that not doing it is hardly going to be scum indicative.

[Something_Smart]

I would rather lynch the gun today with a guarantee of lynching mafia tomorrow, if the gun was already the scummiest player alive, than I would have the gun claim today and get killed tonight. So with respect to 2), I say that if someone does claim gun on the stand, we ask for CC's, and if there's a CC lynch the first claimer regardless.

Worst case scenario, that puts us in 4:1 if scum CC, and it's more likely to put us in 8:1 if the original gun claimer was scum.

[Something_Smart]

voting vs townhunting are not at all at odds - the more you utilize your vote, the more you'll find townies, as well as scum.

In general, yes you're probably right.

However, just because something's true for most people doesn't make it true for everyone. You might even be right about it being true for me, but I'm basing my actions off of my experience-- and in my experience, I usually don't get better reads as a result of my votes.

If you'd like me to vote a particular person for reactions and you have a good reason for it, that's not a bad compromise.

[Something_Smart]

Here's the format you want to use for votes:

Code: Select all

[v]LLD[/v]

You can copy-paste it or type it exactly as written in the code box.

[Something_Smart]

I think scum gets more value out of claiming rose for wifom.

Because it's WIFOM, it depends entirely on how we react to it.

[Something_Smart]

Then like I'm suspecting Something_Smart is some previously unknown lizard from the most outlying Galapagos island who does not have fun as either alignment so maybe it's a misread.

Or maybe I enjoy other things besides shitposting? :thonk:

The only thing this game that has diminished my fun is you taking my playstyle and pushing it as alignment indicative... but I'm used to that

[Something_Smart]

But I'm not the only person who didn't shitpost. Several people jumped right in and started discussing the game; implosion's entrance was almost identical to mine, actually.

Why single me out among those players?

[Something_Smart]

You've lost me.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, it's still objectively better for scum to claim gun. They get lynched either way, but they can force the gun to CC first.

[Something_Smart]

No because gun claims are >50% scum. So if we let a gun claim live to night, we're more likely giving an extra shot to scum than giving an extra shot to town.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I guess where is the disconnect? What factors would have you wanting to cast a vote without trying to aggregate support or figure out the opposing case from a townread? because my main issue is I can't really see a motivation for implosions vote beyond image.

Didn't you just get done saying that there are a bunch of reasons you might use your vote, rather than just wanting to lynch someone?

[Something_Smart]

Sure, I would agree that he as town would probably have a direction, or maybe several possible directions, he intended to go with that vote.

I don't see why he would have to announce or work toward the direction immediately upon placing the vote, and it's strange for you to jump straight to "there is no reason" rather than "he hasn't shared it yet."

I don't doubt that implosion is a capable enough scum player to have in mind some town reasoning for making a vote. It's not really a fair or valid assumption to say that because the reason isn't clear yet, there must not be one.

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE: unvote: something_smart the other people voting S_S suck
VOTE: xyzzy the people voting xyzzy are awesome

Not sure if I agree with the implicit premise that scum are less likely to be voting scum than town are.

I would think that, if you actually disliked my wagon that much, you'd just vote implosion.

[Something_Smart]

Less likely.than what? Voting randomly?

[Something_Smart]

hito is not bad at mafia, it is just important that I not give S_S serious answers because that would foment his New and Dangerous Ideals about not having fun in D1's.

xyzzy is a little scummier than implosion.

>:(

[Something_Smart]

Is it bad I literally don’t understand how people are TRing Cephir?
Because I don’t.

I thought there was something from him I liked from him, but I looked and I couldn't find it.

Le shrug.

[Something_Smart]

Alright, I'm getting bored waiting for xyzzy. Something_Smart, I'll redirect the question to you.

I like these replacements.
Also Haschel its mostly just talk on how to play the setup for the most part.

Xyzzy

Something_Smart, was that a good summary?

From Alisae's point of view, yes, that's probably the only thing that e found noteworthy so far.

There was something about LLD getting her feathers in a ruffle that I didn't really understand, nor was I interested in trying to.

I also had a bit of a back-and-forth with hito about the value of using your vote which is likely to be illuminating on how he plays at the very least, as well as possibly other people who subscribe to his philosophy. I find that relevant; your mileage may vary.

[Something_Smart]

Since I'm relatively new to the format, I'm doing a "watch and wait" approach. Whether that indicts me or not as a scum or not is up to you all, but for now, I'd like my vote to be inconsequential and be a bit more active after the end of the first night.

As such, I'll VOTE: Cephrir. somebody I doubt will be lynched today.

You're not obligated to vote, you know

You can keep your vote on nobody as long as you like.

[Something_Smart]

So it's a wake-up slap?

[Something_Smart]

Or do you think him not posting is scum indicative?

[Something_Smart]

Hmm

I will agree with hito that sitting on my vote is a lot less effective in a game where four others are doing the same thing, and I will trust that you have a good reason to say that.

(I don't actually think I've ever played with Pine, but I definitely know his scum reputation.)

VOTE: Pine

[Something_Smart]

Why? How? That doesn't make any sense. If sitting on your vote is the best way to find mafia then it's the best way to find mafia. If it's not it's not.

And if it depends on the situation, then it depends on the situation.

Everything depends on the situation.

[Something_Smart]

Or Something_Scummy, that one's a favorite of Dunnstral

[Something_Smart]

A surprising amount of people have called me that by accident.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think that makes him scum?

[Something_Smart]

Doesn't Pine prefer to play scum?

Or at the very least, I know he enjoys it.

So you think he made the conscious decision to disappear, because he was too scared or something?

[Something_Smart]

:/

He could have been mistaken and not lying.

[Something_Smart]

Or more accurately, he could have genuinely been excited and then ceased to be excited for whatever reason.

[Something_Smart]

This is the feeling I get when I can see that my friend is online but he won't respond to texts, discord messages, or steam messages

[Something_Smart]

And the comparison is apt in my opinion, because usually it's out of him not paying attention and not him actively ignoring me

[Something_Smart]

However, if you're going to do that then you need to be actively looking for a place to eventually put it and I see no evidence that S_S is doing that.

I mean, I'm going to eventually put it somewhere where five other people might also put theirs. If they don't, it hardly matters where it is.

When I start wagons they don't take off, this is a rule almost without exception. So it's likely I'll be looking at the wagons that are forming closer to deadline and supporting the one I'm most comfortable with.

My vote isn't worth very much right now. My D1 scumreads are probably no better than random, on average. That's why I'm being so reactive with my vote, and why I usually wouldn't have it down at all at this juncture.

[Something_Smart]

Xyzzy has three votes right now. What are your thoughts on the votes on the wagon?

The wagon has existed for so long and off the top of my head I really couldn't think of a reason why.

I went back and looked, and it's still pretty nebulous. LLD voted (59) for disliking a single apparent contradiction in a single post, in what looks to be confbias since she pointed out the contradiction and then said "this was a failed push attempt" as though that's the only explanation.

Ceph's vote (explained in 204) is based on a personal experience tell-- that players whom you don't seem to remember anything about are more likely scum. I myself have seen that be successful but it usually seems to just be a player thing to me-- some players I just have a hard time remembering their posts.

Implosion justified his vote after the fact in 261 which is pretty similar to the above only even less so-- dislike of a post (229) that is a lot of words to not say very much. Being the master of that myself, I'm not really compelled by that argument.

So, overall. Still confused by it, but not really surprised, because xyzzy hasn't done anything that would make people want to move off him. Not particularly keen on it myself.

[Something_Smart]

If you literally were born unable to snipe scum d1 you should focus your meta on trying to townspew and this close to the vest vote thingy you got going on seems like the worst strat for that ever. like play to your strengths. Whatever smash character Haschel played today. Whatever one it was. That one's too fucking fast I play a slow one. I'm too dumb for it. I gotta do what I'm good at.

I mean, when I have been obvtown, it sure as hell was not for aggression. If I'm going to townspew, it's going to be through my words and not my votes.

And yeah, learning to sit on my vote early did wonders for my D1 mislynch rate. It's certainly not the best I could be playing but I don't have enough confidence in myself to correctly judge when I should have confidence in myself

[Something_Smart]

Do you like submit no-kills as vig

Usually I just shoot LHF or consensus scumreads, just because I know that vig shooting is +EV no matter who they hit.

[Something_Smart]

A whole lot of paragraphs that go out of their way to not actually say anything.

Vote: Something_Smart

I'd disagree with both parts of this, actually. I think I reached a pretty clear conclusion-- that people's reasons for voting xyzzy are dubious. And I don't think I really went off topic or took weird turns in my argument.

Now, if you want to say it "a whole lot of paragraphs that don't lead to any reads," then yeah, that's true. But that's my MO as town.

[Something_Smart]

Reading now

\o/

The coniferous slowpoke finally shows up!

[Something_Smart]

Sounds like your issue with xyzzy doesn't really have to do with using a lot of words to say nothing then, no? Because failing to proactively engage people seems pretty different from that.

I will say, though, that I do also have times when I will behave that way as town, although they usually happen in large games when I can afford to drop out of the discussion without slowing down the game.

[Something_Smart]

I also feel a bit sketchier on hito at this point for no strongly discernible reason.

Is it because hito seems like the type to play very similarly as both alignments? Because that's the impression I've been getting.

[Something_Smart]

I guess you're... pining for some activity from him *dodges tomatoes*

[Something_Smart]

Real life picture of Pine:

[Something_Smart]

It's okay, I just won't send him his role PM for Hall of Mirrors until he catches up here

[Something_Smart]

I think at this point Pine being super busy irl is the only way to justify his lack of activity as either alignment.

[Something_Smart]

What is this mystical procedure known as "making time?" Can he teach it to me after the game?

[Something_Smart]

By the way, what Haschel described is way closer to my normal towngame than to my normal scumgame. I have had scumgames where I've been able to act in a similar way but I usually do so in an awkward and a stilted manner, so if you don't think that's how I'm acting, then it makes me likely town.

[Something_Smart]

Hell if I know. My guess right now if I had to make one would be you, but I doubt that's > rand.

I'm not concerned with my lack of scumreads, however I am concerned with my lack of townreads. I just reread most of the game and couldn't really find any slots I could confidently call town.

My current townlist looks something like LLD, Cephrir, Cyanjet but I don't feel confident in that in the slightest.

[Something_Smart]

Eir thoughts don't really seem that nuanced and e seems a bit more aggressive than I remember em being as town.

[Something_Smart]

the only voter I actually like on the xyzzy wagon is LLD
I don't dislike Ceph but I'm certainly not gonna kill it.
Hey Hito I have an idea
VOTE: Pine

Pops is making some good posts he can be town ig

wrong but town

wait haschel from what ur saying SS is doing it sounds like scum SS
to me SS' posts haven't been town, but haven't been scum either

ig I'll vote it with u
VOTE: ss

Naaah
As scum he tries to make time for this game.

[Something_Smart]

I should be around to hammer as well.

As the most obvious vig target Pine should probably claim whether or not he is N1 rose if he gets the chance.

[Something_Smart]

Reading posts before you replaced in is one thing, but reading posts after you replaced in but before you've had a chance to engage is pretty reasonable.

Hito I second the request to not hammer until Pine's said what he wants to. There are three of us now who've offered to hammer, that shouldn't be a problem.

[Something_Smart]

Pine, do you have a lot of experience with pops?

[Something_Smart]

No alisae whyyyyy

Would we want a gun to claim if they performed the kill or does it even matter

I can't imagine that all of scum's kills failed.

[Something_Smart]

Something Smart am I scum?

I stared at your ISO for like ten minutes and couldn't come up with an answer.

Your pushes have all been weak. But, a lot of times scum will stay away from the LHF because they can get townpoints defending them later. That's my scum style. Is it yours? Who knows.
Your grandstanding on xyzzy feels like you genuinely don't know or think he'll flip town. But humorous overconfidence is something that a lot of people can fake as scum. Is that something you do? Who knows.
Alisae didn't really have a strong read on you, e had you as town and then later mentioned you as scum due to your weak push on Pine. Do you kill em for that? Who knows. Depends on your partner probably.
You have a lot of valid points. Would you be able to make those points as scum? Probably.

[Something_Smart]

Maybe the answer to those "Who knows" questions is "Pine." He professed to have some experience with you, hopefully he can weigh in.

[Something_Smart]

His constant interjections with semi-game related things but also having content feels like a pattern that's tonaly consistent with town who is invested in the game but also not taking it too seriously.

I agree with this, actually, and you put it better than I could.

That said, it's one of the things that I know some people are able to fake perfectly as scum, and that's why I've been asking around to see if anyone has better meta experience with him.

[Something_Smart]

What's LLD's scumgame look like? I've never seen it.

[Something_Smart]

Bolded is important. She's the type to make an effort to get an early TR then fly under the radar.

What she did was extremely early though. Like 75% of her posts were in the first four pages, and I'll check but I doubt that many people had put her as town by that point.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, after going back and looking, she got pretty quiet after 74, but she wasn't really townread at that time. A few people listed her as somewhat trusted but that doesn't seem to be a situation where you'd strategically drop out and let them forget about that weak read.

Also of note is that two of the newbies, now cyanjet and Haschel, tried to vote LLD in their first post. So as much as I hate premature associatives, I doubt they jump on that bandwagon if they're partnered with her. (But I could see a scum newbie jumping on town, especially the second one to do so, Agoodcivilian who is now Haschel.)

[Something_Smart]

Honestly, I'm not very hot on Haschel. When I sheeped Alisae onto you, I fully expected to catch flak for it. (The last game I made a blatant sheep vote like that I was promptly run up to L-1 in response.) He was the only one to really shade it, and he later voted me so he very well could have been setting it up back then.

Why is he on your town list?

[Something_Smart]

As for my vote, you can consider it to be on

Alisae

,

xyzzy

, and

S_S

.

Also noteworthy

[Something_Smart]

What did he actually do to try to correct it?

He took potshots for a little while, then voted me for making a post that didn't have definite conclusions.

That's not exactly the most compelling call to arms when you see town a few days from deadline without a good strategy.

[Something_Smart]

I do agree that the entrance was interesting, but he didn't really go anywhere with it. Just kinda said "Alisae's summary left out stuff and therefore it was bad" and then moved on.

[Something_Smart]

s_s, why do you say "all of the scums kills" in post 400? are you treating it as certain that there are 1/2 mafia d1 guns?

I think it's very likely there's at least one, yes.

If I were scum I'd never have picked anything but a N1 gun.

[Something_Smart]

dissolved like...half of my town read on s_s. it's a real bad post!

Knowing I'm town aside, I still don't get this at all. What's bad about that post?

[Something_Smart]

Well, yeah. If Pine claims to have a strong meta scumread on pops that turns out wrong, he should be the one receiving blame for it, not the people who sheeped him-- and I support that whether I'm town or scum.

If you're suggesting that I was baiting Pine into making a meta case that I could jump on later, I didn't really have any idea whether his scumread on pops was meta based, and if it wasn't, it's not like he'd turn around and say it actually was.

You've got a good point that asking the guy who's scumreading pops for an unbiased description of his meta is problematic, but I only asked Pine because he said before that he had experience with pops.

[Something_Smart]

Okay, it’s pretty clear I’m not going anywhere with my pops vote. You guys are fucking blind.

That's a great way to get people to listen to you...

[Something_Smart]

Engage the people townreading him, then, and find and pick apart their reasons.

It seems to me like the majority of your case is in 399, correct? Is there anything that you see in pops that differentiates scum going for easy targets with town going for easy targets?

[Something_Smart]

The last sentence of their last post is a fucking weird thing to say as scum.

Jesus that's a bizarre thing to say as any alignment. How did I miss that before.

[Something_Smart]

People have weird motivations for posting or not posting. There's no need to go into it unless you think he strategically dodged the game as scum, which hardly sounds like a smart idea, nor does it sound like something someone who prefers scum would do.

He's here now, please drop it. Feel free to bring it up postgame if you want to admonish him for it.

[Something_Smart]

You want to see me towntell or some shit, find another axis to interact with me on, because telling me "you're getting votes time to act how I tell you" ain't it, bruv.

What do you want to talk to people about, then?

[Something_Smart]

Isn't part of reading you that what things you decide to talk about are important to your motivations?

Yes, and right now we're trying to read YOU, not the other way around. So you need to come up with stuff to talk about.

And by the way, the last post Alisae made about Pine said he was town, so I don't see how em dying reduces pressure on him.

[Something_Smart]

Basically the kill produces apathy and encourages status quo and protects certain at risk players while making lynches on players who are less gated easier.

This seems a bit contradictory, actually. Usually as apathy increases town is more likely to lynch the easy targets like me and Pine, and less likely to be able to get a wagon together on someone who's harder to lynch.

I agree that they wanted to remove a strong and potentially unifying town voice, but wouldn't that point to the stronger players who would require a town leader to rally enough support to lynch?

[Something_Smart]

Really doesn't seem like it would be useful on either LLD or pops right now-- it would probably just piss them off-- so possibly.

[Something_Smart]

i go in more for NKA than most, but i can't divine exactly who that kill benefits the most even from a completely level zero perspective (i really need a better word for this).

First name that comes to mind is hito. If he's scum, Alisae was probably the closest to challenging him for the town leader spot.

I really don't think Pine kills Alisae.

[Something_Smart]

oh yeah I really like LLD trying to dare implo on to Pine because it makes her thought process feel more coherent to me

Does that make her look townier to you?

[Something_Smart]

also like... I almost want S_S to be scum at this point for his own sake?? the dude has made 80 posts and voted a single time, on the Pine lurker wagon because we yelled at him to. If he's town that's like going to Disneyland and spending all week in the bathroom playing with the hand dryer, or something. like dude you have hand dryers in the bathroom at school, why did you want to go to Disneyland. what's this doin for you

In addition to being an awful analogy, this is also misleading (it implies that I joined a mafia game only to not play mafia, which isn't at all what I'm doing), it doesn't really seem relevant (it's a very belated playstyle criticism that you've already acknowledged can be misguided town), and it is extremely convenient to a scum agenda (it looks like the perfect excuse to transition me from the town spot where you had me to somewhere low enough to mislynch).

But that aside. For someone who's touted the value of using your vote frequently, you really haven't gained much from it. (Or at least, if you have, you haven't shared it and you should.)

[Something_Smart]

HEY FRIEND.

WANNA JOIN A CULT?

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD?

SKULLS FOR THE SKULL THRONE?

WE WILL SMITE THEM AS KHORNE DEMANDS!

GET UP ON MY PINE WAGON AND WATCH THE BLOOD OF FILTHY SCUMFUCKS FLOW

...Evidence for the rational thinkers?

So far your argument is based on a falsehood and the sketchiest NKA I've ever seen.

[Something_Smart]

Oh, and it's based on him not engaging you when he was entirely absent from the game and is also one of the most notorious players on the site for the strength of his scumgame.

I don't really think he'd be scared of you as scum to the point where he'd lurk out intentionally like he did.

[Something_Smart]

I didn't mean to imply you aren't a rational thinker, just that you hadn't given a rational argument and I'm not convinced or intimidated by caps spamming.

[Something_Smart]

I've never played with Pine before, but I suspect his scumgame wouldn't be notorious if it were just "lurk and appear just often enough to drive away a wagon on you."

[Something_Smart]

LLD, you still haven't explained why Pine wouldn't play this way as town.

[Something_Smart]

V/LA until Sunday

[Something_Smart]

It's an extremely productive question! You can't profess confidence, let alone surety, without considering it.

LLD's argument of "Pine is scum because he did X, Y, and Z, and here's why he'd do those things as scum" is entirely uncompelling. There is nothing there to refute the claim that you would always do those things as town, or even that you'd do them 50% of the time as town which still makes you more likely town than not.

[Something_Smart]

No, I see what you're getting at now. This is how I should have phrased it:

LLD, you still haven't explained why Pine is unlikely to have played this way as town.

I think the awkward tense just threw me off

[Something_Smart]

50% Lynch rate is p good

So go forth and show why town-Pine only behaves this way as town 29% of the time.

...or something like that.

[Something_Smart]

You were going against easy targets. You think that's an unexpected thing for town to call out and say they don't like?

[Something_Smart]

You're arguing that you were justified in using facile reasons to push on D1, meanwhile you're scumreading Pine for the facile reason of scumreading you for using facile reasons.

That made sense in my head, I swear.

Maybe a better way to put it is, you going after LHF makes you LHF as well, so it's hypocritical to scumread him for then going after you. At least that's how I see it.

[Something_Smart]

yes

It strikes me as an exceedingly easy tactic to use as scum, though. Like you're essentially getting someone else to vote who you want and you're getting them to specifically accept full responsibility for it.

[Something_Smart]

I almost never meta games I wasn't in cause it's a waste of time, but I think I might meta s_s to see if this explicit super-hard defense (like his last 12 posts or something?) is something he would do for a scumbuddy buddy. s_s do you keep an index of games anywhere or should I just go through your recent threads.

Sorry, no, but if you go through my recent threads you should be able to find them fairly easily.

I do this all the time, as both alignments, but never to a scumbuddy.

[Something_Smart]

someone could have just ghostwritten those posts for him or whatever.

(a) does this ever happen?
(b) would this actually work?
I've seen accusations of it but I've never seen it actually happen. I'm not convinced that any but the very best scum players could actually ghostwrite posts in a way that would be believed and townread, anyway.

[Something_Smart]

Probably Haschel but I want to hear more from the slot first.
My possible lynches today are {you, Haschel, implosion, LLD, hito}, but I'm not very hot on implosion or LLD for reasons I can't remember.

I think I was feeling somewhat better about you as well. After my V/LA I kinda forgot what I'd been thinking, but I think I'll remember it after a bit of rereading tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know about anyone else but I'm waiting on Haschel.

[Something_Smart]

[Something_Smart]

Okay did a bit of reading. I believe it was LLD 481 that I liked, because it's a great way to burn your bridges as scum, and it was implosion 531 that I liked, because I don't really get why he'd be trying to start a new wagon here as scum, rather than trying to sort the existing ones.

[Something_Smart]

Congrats!!

[Something_Smart]

Welp, now we're back to square zero. We can't really expect Kagami to make the first move, so I guess we're forced to direct our attention elsewhere for now.

The pool of people that I'd like to be looked at more closely than they currently are is {hito, implosion}. I recall Pine had them both as town but I don't recall why. Does anyone else have either of them as solidly town, and if so, why?

[Something_Smart]

What do you mean by "fine"?

[Something_Smart]

I wanted to know whether you meant "towny" or "playing well" because it seemed like the former but I'm at a loss as to why his townread on me is scummy.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not CCing.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: LLD

[Something_Smart]

I really hope so.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah I'm assuming the other shot went into pops N1.

[Something_Smart]

I guess it's possible that someone else who's alive was the N1 shot.

I would also be surprised if scum picked a N2 gun and not a N1 one.

[Something_Smart]

Nope, we got alignments first.

[Something_Smart]

If I'd rolled scum I'd have pushed for double N1 gun. I'm surprised they didn't do that.

[Something_Smart]

I didn't think anything of it before the flip. I only checked in briefly, saw the claim, and posted that I wasn't CCing; I don't think I even noticed the vote before night.

[Something_Smart]

I need to convince S_S... or Cyan, I guess if I'm somehow wrong about Cyan being scum which I doubt I am, but just speaking to S_S and S_S being scum makes our win chance zero sooooooooooooooooo

Right now you need to convince hito and implosion to wagon cyan or Kagami with you. I'll never be moving my vote if that doesn't happen.

[Something_Smart]

However, it does matter to me, because those votes provide useful information, and the game is obviously not nearly as solved from my POV as it is from yours.

[Something_Smart]

Ank! \o/

Hopefully you can help me quell what doubts I have about your slot. I'm giving you permission to Amished here; read your predecessor's last post and tell me that isn't cringe-worthy.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, what are your thoughts on that?

To my knowledge, no other player here has as much of a reputation for aggression as you do.

No other player here has demonstrated as much aggression and confidence in their reads as you have.

In addition, your justification for picking rose basically implies that you have the ability to use an extra level of logic that nobody else can, because they're all gonna pick guns and you have to clean up the mess.

(I get that this may be a superrationality situation, but you still didn't bring that up as part of your reasoning, so it really doesn't help.)

[Something_Smart]

well yeah dude. and obviously I will hammer LLD at deadline if votes are frozen like this forever. It's 4:2 so every townie needs to be on the wagon unless there's a bus. This is super duper not what I am looking for. Between the players in this game, who do you think are the mafia and why? Are there pairings you find impossible? I know you know how to post s_s! You did it a lot the first two days!

Here's the thing, the ball's not in my court at the moment. I made my vote at MYLO, and mechanics tell me it was very likely correct.

If LLD is lynched and flips scum, either Kagami or I probably dies tonight (maybe Ank, though when your post was written it was still cyanlurk), and you have to fight for your life against implosion. I have no reason to try to work this out now, unless I think I'll be better at it than Kagami, which I won't.

If Ank or Kagami is somehow lynched and flips scum, obviously the other is the partner.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think it's me/Kagami? Or do you think scum were too scared to hammer?

[Something_Smart]

Well, yeah, honestly that sums it up. Obviously it's possible, but I wouldn't feel bad losing to a team that slowrolled a hammer (I would just be irritated they dragged it out), so it's probably better to discount it as a possibility completely.

[Something_Smart]

Unless it was a N1 bounce killed N2, but I think you don't kill the N1 bounce N2 for exactly that reason.

I mean, or if it was LLD hit N1...

[Something_Smart]

...Really?

My scumgame isn't

that

shitty.

[Something_Smart]

Like I play mechanically as either alignment. I already decided in the early game setup discussion that the proper play was for the gun to CC and to never lynch a gun claim without a CC. As scum I'd stick by that even if it means a planned mislynch slipping away.

I was astounded to see Pine hammered there. If I were scum with LLD, I would never have expected a townie to hammer Pine, and so I wouldn't have reacted any differently.

[Something_Smart]

I'm saying that your argument in 813 and 814 is exceedingly weak, and it's completely invalid although its conclusion happens to be correct in this case.

[Something_Smart]

Pocketing is one of my most valuable scum tactics. If I did manage to stop the Pine mislynch there as scum, then he would probably never let me get lynched. I've only ever endgamed a few times (my scumgame is not very strong) but usually when I have it's because I pocketed someone and they returned the favor.

But to be honest, I don't even really see how not CC'ing does anything to prevent the lynch. If someone's gonna hammer without a CC they're gonna do that anyway-- I really don't think hito hammered because he thought cyanjet was the gun.

[Something_Smart]

Haven't you met me, Ank? Going nowhere is kind of my thing.

I'm mostly just creating that interaction to look at later. The reason I brought it up was the possibility of 813 being a clumsy pocket attempt, and I wanted to see how they explained it. But there would have been no point in confronting Kagami directly about that, as they'd obviously just insist it was genuine.

[Something_Smart]

Kagami just did "Bullets for Bullets".

Do you have statistics to show that scum do this more often than random? Because, uh, some people just like to refute points like that, regardless of alignment.

Do you really think hito would quickhammer? Do you really think hito is the kind of player who, as scum, would quickhammer in a situation where it doesn't strictly guarantee him the win?

...Hito literally quickhammered the IC, so, hell yeah?

[Something_Smart]

because nothing else you've done today seems congruent with these doubts tbh!

Really?

Where did I say something that doesn't make sense with that?

[Something_Smart]

Sick.

[Something_Smart]

Lol.

You know, I'd really like to play this setup again with people who actually know what they're doing starting in the slots.

I'm leaning hito scum after reading overnight. Where are you at, Ank?

[Something_Smart]

2. LLD constantly was talking TO me but ABOUT implo. I was the vote that she was pretty transparently trying to fish for whereas she wanted as little to do with implo as possible

Are you going to sit there with a straight face and tell me that LLD thought there was a world where someone other than her was lynched that day?

[Something_Smart]

Well, if you'd like, you can make an implosion case and I can make a hito case and then we can compare notes.

Or you can just bring up points about why you feel implosion is scum and/or why you feel hito is town and we can chat about them.

[Something_Smart]

What doesn't make sense about it? They killed their failed N1 hit and a universal townread on N2, and then LLD spent the day trying to confuse people while hito spun his wheels and eventually decided it was time to bus, and then hito shot obvtown Kagami whom he judged was most likely to go their own way instead of listening to him in 4p MYLO.

[Something_Smart]

Implosion, do you have any idea why your earlygame reads were so atrocious?

[Something_Smart]

A few other things that are factoring into my read:

- Obviously, LLD was bussed at some point. It makes a whole lot more sense for it to be on D3, after she was already almost confirmed scum from three townies' POVs, than on D2, when an LLD lynch would have shut down the Pine wagon for good.

- The way hito played around Pine obviously has a lot of scum equity, and I can imagine LLD telling him that he can hammer and she'll take the fall for the wagon. Implosion, if scum, would have probably been angling for towncred off of defending him. Had he gone that route, he could also have been shielded from TMI accusations by the fact that I was defending Pine even more. But 580 makes absolutely no sense from the "defend the mislynch for towncred" angle, and it also makes no sense if you assume that implosion saw the wagon failing and wanted to make sure it went through, because he never even voted Pine.

- The scumteam was LLD/?. They decided they'd take a N1 gun and a N2 gun. Which player takes which is irrelevant, except that the N2 gun needs to, you know, survive to N2. Now I don't know how strong implosion's scumgame is overall, but I know that in his most recent scumgame he was lynched D2, so I would expect their selections to be reversed. And he was quick to bus in that game, which would not square with him holding out so long on D3 as LLD's partner, even though it was clear LLD knew she was going down.

[Something_Smart]

I had quite a few bits of Kagami's posting I found suspicious - why doesn't she think she can win that?

Because it requires selling a very specific scumteam to multiple townies and very possibly making her partner obvious in the process of it fails. That definitely seems like it will work less than 50% of the time.

Alternatively, she can set up for the 1v1 between you and implosion by interacting with the two of you in a way that makes her partner look better, which is at least marginally more than 50% if you think she's any good at doing that.

Do you really think that, in that situation, the first option is the more sensible one?

[Something_Smart]

But Kagami is the least likely person to change their mind, not the most, right? Kagami has already priced in the idea of an LLD/implo scumteam, and so seeing LLD flip red doesn't adjust their reads at all. Conversely, Blake believed in Kagami + ???, and so being disproven means that Blake has to totally reindex, with no clear indicator on who she'd think the most likely buddy is.

I don't know Kagami. They'd already changed their mind at least once (they were pretty deadset on you being scum at the start of the day), so I'm really not sure. I don't really think you would never kill Kagami here.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: hito
It's not that I've necessarily decided but nothing's happening right now.

Ank, when do you think bussing was more likely? Regardless of which it is, they bussed at some point.

[Something_Smart]

I guess this game mostly depends on whether I'm willing to blind trust my gut on implosion when I've already been incorrect once or whether I'm willing to trust that the only other slot I think is town has a good enough idea of where the game sits to have higher odds of being correct than I am.

To be honest... I'm not very good at reading old players.

Like I definitely see what you're saying about implosion. Reading the two of them just really demands a grasp on how they thought the gamestate was, rather than how I thought it was, and I suspect those things are pretty different.

UNVOTE:

idk. I would be putting more effort into this game if I thought that more effort would lead me to a better conclusion, which I don't.

[Something_Smart]

Ugh, sorry for the disappearance.

Reads wise I'm kinda lost but I think Ank is right that implosion scum requires fewer assumptions.

[Something_Smart]

Honestly the only thing holding me back from hammering is that hito played terribly if town and if scum he played in a way that doesn't deserve to win. But I probably will hammer anyway. This really doesn't need to be dragged out any more.

[Something_Smart]

I mean this whole game is a :/ honestly. From FG's friends picking weird shit and then mass replacing out to Pine disappearing completely and everyone wagoning him for this completely NAI behavior, I really won't feel that bad if we lose.

[Something_Smart]

Can you explain to me why you think hito is more likely to hammer the IC as town than as scum?

[Something_Smart]

I just don't see why someone who is as experienced as hito would make such a suboptimal play as town, given that we had already laid out that guns had to CC.

Like yeah, I do agree with you that his play is pretty weird and unlikely coming from scum, but do you not also see it as unlikely coming from town? I do.

[Something_Smart]

Okay, I think I see, it's definitely a generational thing. I've played with plenty of players who would handle the gun claim as badly or worse than Pine did. (I've even played with some who, if caught on a bad day, would selfhammer as gun out of spite.) I also have not played with many players who would sit on a CC the way gun-Ceph or gun-pops would have had to.

But like, I guess it's not really disputable that you did most of your playing at a time when the site meta was different, and given that everyone else alive has at least four years on me, I'm sure Ank and implosion can confirm this for me.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still annoyed. Pine's futzing around was, to me, relatively insignificant compared to his genuine scumhunting, but Ank's probably right that the best move is to just assume that you didn't do a bunch of things to make it harder for yourself.

[Something_Smart]

Again. Sorry if wrong.

VOTE: implosion

[Something_Smart]

Good game, guys.

Sorry for making that take so long. I won't lie, I was absolutely afraid of feeling like shit for losing to an LLD/hito team that forced through such a blatant scum agenda, even though I knew it was objectively less likely.

I hit on 918 though which I'm hoping will help me read older players in the future; that's always been a weak spot of mine. I'm sorry for all the grief I gave you, hito; you played very strongly aside from the Pine hammer and I basically looked past it because I thought you might be able to fake that as scum.

And damn. Once we got the replacements sorted out, this game had a fantastic playerlist across the board. It was fun playing with all of you

[Something_Smart]

FakeGod's moderation was excellent as usual, and the setup is very interesting.

I thought it would be scumsided, but even with the terrible gun/rose split, and mislynching the named townie, and the newbies making a bunch of nonsensical picks, we still ended up having a reasonable chance.

[Something_Smart]

It's not exactly like that pops, because some people will do better with one or the other, bit it has the same idea.

For instance, I would never take a gun. Ever. You and I talked about this during the game and I actually clammed up because you asked me "true or false vig is the best role" which was just a straight up rolefish