Mini 1413 - The Mind Reader Mafia - Game Over

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: Loranthaceae for having a name I really don't want to spend the rest of the game trying to remember how to spell.

[penguin_alien]

Malakittens, I confirmed about two hours (two hours, eighteen minutes) after my role PM arrived in my inbox. At which point I checked out the thread and saw that everyone else had confirmed. So I think it's more a matter of everyone being really quick to confirm.

Why do you think it's relevant, given that the Mafia are guaranteed to have daytalk in this set-up for the first day, since everyone's still alive? (therefore the Mafia Psychic is around to facilitate it, for those who may not have read the set-up details)

Junpei, why do you want us to speculate about that in the game thread? And we're supposed to discuss that without elaborating on strategy or meta...what are you expecting, us to rate their utility on a scale of 1-10? That's a fishing expedition for certain.

UNVOTE: Loranthaceae (joke's totally on me for having to check your name's spelling again to unvote...)
VOTE: Junpei

[penguin_alien]

Malakittens, I confirmed about two hours (two hours, eighteen minutes) after my role PM arrived in my inbox. At which point I checked out the thread and saw that everyone else had confirmed. So I think it's more a matter of everyone being really quick to confirm.

Why do you think it's relevant, given that the Mafia are guaranteed to have daytalk in this set-up for the first day, since everyone's still alive? (therefore the Mafia Psychic is around to facilitate it, for those who may not have read the set-up details)

Junpei, why do you want us to speculate about that in the game thread? And we're supposed to discuss that without elaborating on strategy or meta...what are you expecting, us to rate their utility on a scale of 1-10? That's a fishing expedition for certain.

UNVOTE: Loranthaceae (joke's totally on me for having to check your name's spelling again to unvote...)
VOTE: Junpei

To rephrase, generally I've seen late confirmations questioned as a delaying tactic by scum to extend their pre-game QT time. Since this set-up has daytalk for scum as long as the Mafia Psychic is alive, there is no benefit to delaying confirmation/game start intentionally. That makes it irrelevant in my mind how long I took to confirm, beyond that it would have been rude to blow off confirming intentionally.

I have no idea what the timeline was on the sending of role PMs. All I can attest to is my own actions.


@penguin Can you rephrase the middle paragraph?
Concerning confirmation, what you said cannot be true unless there was an error with the role PM and it had to be resent. The wave of confirmations which left you special came at least 6 hours after I sent out my confirmation PM. Can anyone else confirm this?

p-edit: I am not lying.

[penguin_alien]

Yes, I checked AM/PM.

I do ask again how it's relevant in a game with scum daytalk.

Junpei, given that you phrased your question in a way that indicated you wanted an answer, but not anything that discussed strategy or metagaming, it's not clear that you wanted to do anything but stir up conversation in a way that would make it possible for you to point to someone as giving away too much strategic information as scum.

(also, I messed up the quote tags in my last post; sorry for the integrated answers to Loranthaceae's questions.)

[penguin_alien]

I get that, except he artificially limited any responses we could make. Beyond Jal's saying the QTs are as useful as we make them, which is true, it's not clear what else we could say that would be true or useful without violating the 'no elaborating on strategy' edict. Maybe he is just attempting to elicit conversation, but it seems like it's also a really good way to trap people into saying something he can declare anti-town at the least.

[penguin_alien]

It has scumhunting purpose, but the results won't allow me to make any of those kinds of conclusions no matter what.

At this point I'm just confused. You don't anticipate anyone answering in a way that's scummy or anti-town? But you can scumhunt with the answers? What am I missing here?

[penguin_alien]

Scum hunting purpose =/= searching for alignment. Understanding the set up might not directly give a read on someone but can help scum hunt overall.

What's to understand about the set-up? We're all in one-way contact with someone who's confirmed town but with a hidden identity. Like lots of Mason or Neighbor groups depending on the alignment of the writer. In the meantime we play it like a vanilla game and scum try to mislead the Mind Reader. I suspect people of both alignments will attempt different strategies, but to speculate further on that gets into territory Junpei said we should avoid.

I'll grant that searching for alignment can encompass finding town reads, making it more inclusive than scum hunting, so if that's what he meant, it's less confusing.

p-edit: The disconnect between what people say they'd do with the QT versus what they actually do could be useful, and I see how you were actually implying that your question would help someone else scumhunt, but since you told us not to answer with any strategy references, I'm not sure how you intended to elicit those types of responses.

Malakittens: Still not lying.

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Junpei

I don't know if that was the best way to elicit the information you wanted the Mind Reader to have, Junpei, but it tracks with your hoping people would answer without referencing strategy. I'm kind of in agreement about the 'getting on people's good sides' given that he thinks I'm lying unintentionally, like he wants to appease me by excusing what he sees as a lie. But his posts seem to be aimed at getting people to clarify their thoughts in a pro-town way,

Loranthaceae, any plans to indicate why you think Junpei is scum? Or why you unvoted Mehdi2277 when your post before that didn't show you buying his explanation completely? Your reluctance to pursue scumreads sounds like scum wanting to contribute without being on wagons.

VOTE: Loranthaceae

[penguin_alien]

I'm saying I don't know when other players received their PMs. The timeline I refer to is encompassing everything the mod sent out, which I obviously can't know about as any alignment under the sun. I don't doubt what everyone else is saying about having confirmed well before I did, as enough people had commented about it for it to be alignment-independent.

[penguin_alien]

Loranthaceae, any plans to indicate why you think Junpei is scum? Or why you unvoted Mehdi2277 when your post before that didn't show you buying his explanation completely? Your reluctance to pursue scumreads sounds like scum wanting to contribute without being on wagons.

VOTE: Loranthaceae

Given that you're not addressing any of the points made by any of us who are voting for you, I think it's a good wagon.

[penguin_alien]

Apologies for the time it's taken for me to explain my confirmation delay--I didn't know what had happened myself, and once I figured out that it wasn't a matter of you all confirming in two hours, I had to find out what was going on and confirm that I could explain without a) disrupting the integrity of the game or b) violating site ethics in doing so.

When OhGodMyLife sent out the role PMs, he C&P'd the usernames from the Open Queue player listing, where my name was transcribed as 'penguin_allen' rather than 'penguin_alien'. This typo meant I didn't get the PM, so he sent it out late(r) once he figured out what had happened on his end. That's all.

Here endeth the explanation.

[penguin_alien]

None of what Loranthaceae's posting is making me think he's any less scummy.

Malakittens, when you're back around these parts, what's your take on the game now that we're done discussing my late confirmation?

[penguin_alien]

vote Loranthaceae

If I don't vote him now I might not get to later, will try and read more.

Why would you not getting to vote for Loranthaceae be a problem for you? Presumably that would happen if he was lynched without your vote; why do you want to be on the wagon?

Loranthaceae's posting, claiming his one post was a joke and then a reaction test, and generally voting wherever he perceives the wind to be blowing is making me quite content with my vote.

The case on Adam-12 does seem like the next best thing going. From my POV, I find it a bit odd that he seemed to have a positive read on me early in the day phase, when most of what I'd done was deny lying when it really, really looked like I was.

[penguin_alien]

Mehdi2277, how is #333, with Loranthaceae speculating on a scum group before anyone's flipped, particularly helpful? Or #337:

Mala and Jal what do you think of each other. The first one to ask me why I'm asking gets a prize

Even if he believes in the scum connection he's positing in #333, it does us little good without a flip, and even with a flip it's a pretty weak case. And I don't know what he would believe in for #337--that Malakittens and Jal interacting is relevant? Which, in general, yes?

T-Bone, why the quick unvoting?

[penguin_alien]

T-Bone, I can only guess that you're seeing something I'm not in the posts Mehdi2277 pointed out.

And I don't know if Loranthaceae's post is some AtE or what, but it's rather over the top. And not particularly consistent:

I'm going to let you know why I think Junpei is scummy whenever I fucking feel like it. THAT's TOWN!

Do you feel like you're some fucking judge or something.. you are supposed to go in depth, explain to me what is in your head.

Oddly enough I don't feel particularly motivated to respond any further to someone who uses OMGUS as a mode of gameplay and writes in such a condescending fashion.

[penguin_alien]

Mod: apologies, but I'm going to be V/LA for ~24 hours; battling a virus. Hopefully back up and running soon.

[penguin_alien]

Feeling better after a night's rest; V/LA over.

Loranthaceae attempting to call the scum team on rather weak associations looks like scum lining up future lynches. Or overeager town, although I'd think that without any flips, it's rather premature as a pro-town play.

I'm waiting to see if guille2015's next catch-up post is more substantive; from his first one #241 what stands out to me is his worry that someone is being put at L-2 without what he deems to be a sufficiently good reason, plus I'm not sure why he feels the need to guess as to whom GreyICE is voting for. I'm on the same page with not quite getting the 'reading comprehension' motivation, but I think it was pretty clear GreyICE had his vote on Adam-12 at the time of the post. Casting doubt on this basic fact seems gratuitous. As for the L-2 point, guille2015, why do you think it's so dangerous to put someone at L-2 specifically?

CityElectric doesn't seem particularly scummy to me. What there is to her answers reads as genuine. Right now at worst I'd put her as a null read.

Malakittens' case on Adam-12 reads as reasonable, and I'd disagree with, I think it was guille2015, that Loranthaceae and Adam-12 couldn't be scum together, as I've seen scum infighting used to good effect. Adam-12, what made you say this:

Jun is good posting. I like Juls & Penguin.

specifically your read on me, at that point in the game?

[penguin_alien]

I agree about the efficacy of lining up future lynches, but that doesn't mean that Loranthaceae doesn't believe himself to have said credibility and power. In the meantime it's a great way to look busy and insightful with nothing of substance being contributed.

I have a stronger scum read on Loranthaceae, but I don't get the vibe from his exchanges with Adam-12 that him being scum excludes Adam-12 as scum. I want to see how Adam-12 responds to some of the more recent posting before determining if he's overtaking Loranthaceae in my scumdar. His not posting for four days doesn't help that. (unless I missed a V/LA?)

[penguin_alien]

I meant substance for the town as a whole. But that is a good point that you'd think if he's scum he'd have been counseled to be less inflammatory. Unless they think it's worth bussing him, particularly if they can use his QT to their advantage in manipulating the MR, but I'd think you're right that they'd try to get him to become less of a target before resigning themselves to bussing where they need four mislynches to win. I don't think it's enough to unvote him, as if daytalk let scum play an infallible game it would never be used, but it's certainly worth considering.

[penguin_alien]

mastin2, you're on page three and you think GreyICE is the best scumhunter in the game? I can only assume you've read more recent pages of the game as well then, as he doesn't have his first post until page six.

And while I don't know what you're basing your read of me on, if you haven't gotten there, allow me to save time and direct you to #106

[penguin_alien]

I think Loran is just talking meaningless drivel. But I honestly skipped most of what he wrote. I don't think I missed much.

You have no interest in, if your vote is anything to go by, your strongest scum read?

[W]hat stands out to me is [guille2015's] worry that someone is being put at L-2 without what he deems to be a sufficiently good reason, plus I'm not sure why he feels the need to guess as to whom GreyICE is voting for. I'm on the same page with not quite getting the 'reading comprehension' motivation, but I think it was pretty clear GreyICE had his vote on Adam-12 at the time of the post. Casting doubt on this basic fact seems gratuitous.

As for the L-2 point, guille2015, why do you think it's so dangerous to put someone at L-2 specifically?

Bolded my question to you for emphasis, guille2015. Until I get an answer:

UNVOTE: Loranthaceae
VOTE: guille2015

This is L-1

p-edit: Ninja'd by Malakittens WRT his not reading Loranthaceae's posts.

[penguin_alien]

a) because I hadn't checked the vote count before I saw Malakittens had voted, so it wasn't something to edit, and b) it seems most readable to put information about the vote count by the actual vote to avoid having it missed.

[penguin_alien]

Malakittens, around the time of #469, guille2015 was indicating that he was in the process of catching up. If that was the case, he would have come across my question and addressed it. Later on, when it was clear that he wasn't addressing it, I quoted it and added a vote to emphasize that I really did think this was scummy (along with the point about his reading Loranthaceae's posts) as I generally find people are more willing to answer questions when there's a vote on the line. Yes, it was L-1, but I wasn't remotely expecting Loranthaceae to waltz in and hammer like that. You say I should have avoided putting him at L-1 in case of a hammer, but in a game where there's a PR to claim, one really doesn't expect a hammer to come like that. Maybe if scum wants to cut off conversation, but usually that's a sign that the lynch in question will flip scum anyways, which reduces the utility of receiving an answer in any event.

As to why I didn't vote guille2015 when my initial question came up in #436, at that point I still had a scum read on Loranthaceae. The only reason I changed my mind there and moved to guille2015 as my top suspect was because of Mehdi2277's argument that Loranthaceae was unlikely to be scum on a team with day talk and still posting in such an erratic fashion. That that argument persuaded me off a wagon I now think was likely town onto a scum wagon moves Mehdi2277 from leaning scum to town in my books.

I find it very interesting that Malakittens managed to go from a tentative town read on me for overlapping on a reason to find guille2015 scummy (and seeming to have no objection to my L-1 vote) to opening the day finding me scummy, if I'm interpreting her posting correctly. Then she confuses my vote with Loranthaceae's hammer, when she specifically commented on the hammer at the end of the day, like she's reaching for reasons to find me scummy. I'm not saying that people don't become genuinely mixed up over the night phase, but I don't think I've ever quick-hammered in a game with Malakittens, even in places where I should (!) so why she'd have me in memory as the quickhammer, I don't know.

I'm also not quite sure about her NK speculation. My understanding through three town-Malakittens games is that she prides herself on NK analysis. I do see that she's speculated a bit that CityElectric might have guided the NK to T-Bone because he didn't like her lurking, but if that's what she really thinks, I'd expect her to spend more time pushing the read, even if she doesn't emphasize where it comes from; instead she's letting herself be diverted into weakly supported arguments.

That being said, Malakittens is correct that CityElectric hasn't been particularly pro-town in her postings, plus #526 is daring us to lynch her. Which is scummy as all get-out. I'm willing to see what CityElectric comes up with under increased pressure, so VOTE: CityElectric

[penguin_alien]

mastin2, by 'interesting' I mean worth taking note of but not conclusive in my mind. There's something different about Malakittens in my reading, but I don't trust my read there entirely due to her push on my confirmation issue making me a bit frustrated at her for a lot of Day One, even though it wasn't unreasonable, plus even though I've seen her play as town in a few games, I think our overlap time there averaged a day phase or less per game.

Maybe it's just me but as someone-else-townie I wouldn't ask that question again. I mean not even I, the guy she's voting, is interested in the answer because it's probably just gonna be some excuse or something. Looks to me like he's scratching for something he knows isn't there because he knows the bone is somewhere else but doesn't want us to know. It's one of those easy things that scum can fake input on.

Even if someone is a top scum suspect, that doesn't mean that their answers to questions are worthless. We could be wrong about her alignment. Her answer could be revealing about how the scum team's thinking if she flips scum. And given that Mehdi2277's case on GreyICE is at least partly based on him early bussing guille2015, it's not unreasonable to consider that guille2015 could have been early bussing you. Yes, the fallout of Day One does point to your being town, but frankly it's all indirect evidence to me, i.e. that if you had daychat with a scum team you would have been told to tone it down sooner, or that one flipped scum was on your wagon. Your postings, coupled with your quick jump off the CityElectric wagon, don't contribute to my putting you in the town category at present.

CityElectric, that you have zero reads on anyone except the person you're voting and the person that pushed through a scum lynch is rather weak. How about this: do you think scum bussed, and if so, was it early or late on the wagon?

Mehdi2277, I kind of see where you're going with the GreyICE case, but I think it's a lot weaker than the CityElectric case. His outrage at the quickhammer isn't necessarily scummy: guille2015 could have been a Mind Reader who wasn't into the game because he got overwhelmed at the prospect of reading so many QTs in addition to the game thread. Even with him being correctly lynched, if he'd made a last-ditch attempt to save himself, we might have gotten more information. GreyICE not participating this day phase beyond voting for Malakittens doesn't improve his standing, but given how little guille2015 interacted with anyone, and given that CityElectric is an unknown quantity at present, I'm in agreement that CityElectric is scummier than GreyICE even, or perhaps especially, based on that associative case.

[penguin_alien]

We lynch scum today, and we win, so why are you fucking about?

What's this supposed to mean? Are you saying that with a scum lynch today we'd have the victory? Why?

Mod, if Adam-12 and Junpei haven't answered their prods, can we please get replacements? Thanks!

Loranthaceae, can you please explain in slightly more objective terms what makes LastSurvivor scummier than CityElectric? Because I'm not following your case at all.

[penguin_alien]

CityElectric, why is your vote on Loranthaceae rather than Malakittens? If you find Loranthaceae, Malakittens, and me all suspicious, and Loranthaceae trumps us other two, where is your case on him? Particularly since there is support for a Malakittens lynch in the game.

I don't find Penguin's explanation for his 'this is L-1' before the P-edit completely satisfactory, so that's slightly off-putting.

(I'm a she) What's not satisfactory about wanting to be clear about my vote putting someone at L-1? Obviously it didn't end up mattering with the Loranthaceae quickhammer, but my impression is that p-edits are usually used to acknowledge that some point has been made redundant or happens to overlap with something someone said while one was compiling a post.

[penguin_alien]

Eh. I would have expected scumCE to subtly shift positions on Loran in response to my question about him in order to appease me. Instead, CE stood her ground, and that's pretty townie.

Loran might actually have some sort of point. CE doesn't seem to be worried about the pressure on her at all, and that also makes me think she's town.

Given that Loranthaceae is being read as town by most everyone, CityElectric leaving her vote on him actually works to obfuscate things if she flips scum. There's no real case that she's making beyond thinking Loranthaceae is scum for unspecified reasons. So I ask again:

CityElectric, why is your vote on Loranthaceae[?]

(quote truncated to address the main point I want answered)

Loranthaceae, I'm not anywhere near convinced by your case on LastSurvivor. It's so dependent on conjecture and assuming people are playing unethically that I can't take it seriously. I've played in a game with LastSurvivor before and saw zero evidence that he would flout the site ethics.

mastin2, what points from Loranthaceae are resonating with you? I have him as town, but really more in spite of his whacky postings rather than because of them.

[penguin_alien]

OK, mastin2, then I'll take knowing which ones you don't resonate with when it comes to Loranthaceae.

And you believe that town players will always have clear lines of thought, given that they're working from less information than scum? (as per your scum-take on LastSurvivor)

[penguin_alien]

mastin2, thanks for the detailed answers. I owe a response post, but it'll have to be tomorrow; I'm too zonked tonight.

[penguin_alien]

mastin2, I suppose I just have a hard time taking Loranthaceae seriously when he's so downright hostile, but I've been led down the garden path by assuming that people whose thought processes/approaches match mine must be the good guys. Lastsurvivor's response to your fleshing out where you stand on Loranthaceae's case looks pretty bad. I still think CityElectric is a better lynch, not least because she's not engaging or giving us any indication of scum hunting.

Double-ISOing Lastsurvivor and Loranthaceae shows some inconsistencies from both. Where Loranthaceae claims that Lastsurvivor tried to brush off the former's case as "insane" it's not really accurate; Lastsurvivor is pointing out that Loranthaceae's accusations of lurking are rather without merit. The whole thing seems to stem from Lastsurvivor wanting CityElectric to answer a question about her read on Loranthaceae, which Loranthaceae dismissed as a useless question, a stance I among others disagree with.

I don't know that Lastsurvivor's doing an awesome job defending himself, but I recall him getting run up in another game we played together (Open 459) and being unable to dissuade the wagon. Which was another case of someone picking on something small and blowing it up the more Lastsurvivor tried to refute it. Or that's how I remember it; I was scum there trying to stay off what looked like a lousy wagon, so my memory might be biased.

mastin2, what's your current take on CityElectric, given that she's done a runner in this game as far as I can tell? I know you initially said you had a scum read on her but didn't like the people on the wagon; has that changed? I do agree that the Adam-12 case is not worth pursuing.

[penguin_alien]

We're at < 72 hours to deadline by my count based off this post going into a weekend. With nine players active (although counting CityElectric and GreyICE as active is a stretch) and six needed for a lynch, something's got to give. My first choice is still CityElectric, but I'd rather get some information than no lynch. Here's the latest vote count I found, and it doesn't seem like anything's shifted since then:

CityElectric: 3 (Malakittens, penguin_alien, Mehdi2277)
Malakittens: 2 (Lastsurvivor, GreyICE)
Lastsurvivor: 2 (Loranthaceae, mastin2)
Loranthaceae: 1 (CityElectric)

[edited to fix number for Lastsurvivor]

Jal, where do you stand?

[penguin_alien]

I like AngryPidgeon's town reasoning on CityElectric, actually, and I think the strength of his town read on Malakittens is about right. AngryPidgeon's posting in general makes me comfortable calling the Adam-12/AngryPidgeon slot town. Yet I don't see what he sees in Jal or Mehdi2277 being such surefire scum reads. I've seen Mehdi2277 get a bit more zealous when he has a strong scum read, but his focus on GreyICE seemed in line with that. And Jal, I have nothing. If it's PoE, why are you more comfortable with putting Jal as the scum over Lastsurvivor when you said you'd compromise on Lastsurvivor?

UNVOTE: CityElectric

[penguin_alien]

Jal, while I do agree that AngryPidgeon's VCA is light on analysis and not backing up his colors (although he's given the reads that led to those color choices elsewhere) working from the assumption that the Day One wagon on Loranthaceae was on town, CityElectric being scum with guille2015 puts two of the three scum heavily invested in a town wagon. From my limited experience, I've participated in early and heavy bussing of a scum buddy when they were imploding, but that doesn't seem to be the case here if we're right about town-Loranthaceae. Which would mean that it's unlikely CityElectric is scum especially given that they can coordinate via daychat. Junpei, maybe, but with his slot MIA and T-Bone's quick jump on and off, I'd rather hunt scum off the wagon.

To that end, mastin2 pushing the lynch on guille2015 leaves him out. Loranthaceae, also a town read. Which leaves GreyICE, Lastsurvivor, Malakittens, Mehdi2277, and you (Jal). I believe there's at least one scum in this group, possibly two. Rereading your (Jal's) ISO I don't see what AngryPidgeon does, which given that it's a gut read follows. I'd put you at leaning town myself. The GreyICE case tracks from CityElectric being part of the scum trio, and him disappearing for a week-plus isn't helping my read, I suspect that will sort itself out later. Mehdi2277 has been moving toward a town read.

I don't have as strong a town read as I have in the past WRT Malakittens. On the flipside of that, it may be that I'm being lazy, since the last two games I played with Malakittens, I was scum who knew and was nearly certain of her town alignment respectively. I didn't love Lastsurvivor's jumping on mastin2 posting the thoughts I'd requested, and at this point I could do worse than follow a strong town read.

VOTE: Lastsurvivor

[penguin_alien]

Mastin's definitely just playing up both sides atm.

Yes, it was in response to Loranthaceae asking what you thought of mastin2. Your conclusion, that he was playing both sides, was incorrect, as I'd asked him to point out the statements from Loranthaceae that he didn't agree with; he still agreed with the general case and made a point of maintaining that stance even in responding to my query. I asked that to get a sense of where his thinking diverged from Loranthaceae's. You dodged the question of taking a stance on him as town- or scum-leaning by saying you couldn't be objective when he was voting you.

I think I explained my thought process pretty thoroughly in my previous post. Anything in particular you want me to address?

[penguin_alien]

I'm saying that if Loranthaceae is town, CityElectric being scum would put two scum on the first half of a wagon that would have looked bad in hindsight. That doesn't seem likely to me.

[penguin_alien]

What caused you to switch from defending LS -> voting LS

If you ISOd me like you said you did during your defense, you should have seen the post about Mastin that is the backbone of your vote.

The following is the post in question, yes?

I guess. Mastin's definitely just playing up both sides atm. I really don't trust myself to give a read on him due to conf-bias (i.e., he's voting me, thus I have the gut reaction to think he's scum).

You're asked for a read on mastin2; you state (incorrectly) that he's playing both sides and then opt not to give a read.

As far as switching from defending you to voting you, I changed my mind about what CityElectric's posts and voting record implied. I then took a look at the case on you and your ISO. In the meantime I had the experience elsewhere of having someone displaying certain behaviors I thought indicative of town meta flip scum (ongoing game, can't be more specific, yes it's 'convenient') and that led me to reconsider my prior assumption that your lack of stellar defense against attack here was like your play in Open 459 and so a town indicator.

To the contrary, in that game, even when you were under attack you were actively scum-hunting. Here, you have a vote on Malakittens, but you're not pushing her here like you did your scum reads then. Sure, you're asking her questions, but not so much about her play as about other people's, and since voting for her at the start of the day, you've barely attempted to persuade anyone of the correctness of your vote. It's like you either don't care or don't believe in your vote, which isn't town behavior. Admittedly I suspect that I've recently become a frontrunner in your scum reads, but that's really only in the last page or two; what do you consider to be your scum-hunting activity before then? In #633 you give what amounts to null reads on the people Loranthaceae asks you about. This:

CE doesn't seem to be worried about the pressure on her at all, and that also makes me think she's town.

is the closest thing I see to a committed read from you from the whole day phase, leaving out your vote on Malakittens. Which is addressed as follows:

When you find a way to explain a gut feeling. Then you can let me know. I can never explain my gut feels. >_>

VOTE: Malakittens

Your read on guille was super fence sitting. Gut-town read, but null. It might as well have been distancing. I mostly have a problem with your answer because you didn't answer it in the first place, and when you did, it was basically "I don't have to explain, it's gut!!" Which makes no sense, because all gut has to have some sort of foundation.

and

What do you make of her vote on Guille, LS?

It looks like a bus. Mala had no real suspicion of Guille beforehand (remember, gut-town null), and then she suddenly votes him once it was pretty obvious that Guille was going down. I think that's why she stuck in that "I still think Adam's scum..." comment at the end...in an attempt to justify her switch.

@LS: I did say usually. You happened to pick the one scum game where I didn't bus because there wasn't a need to do so.

Which totally brings your meta defense into question. What makes one game more necessary to bus in than the other? Looking in some of your previous scum games, it looks like you bus one partner more heavily than the other (I'm looking at Murder on the HMS Regalia where you bus BK much more than you do Image). Who's to say you haven't been bussing one partner this entire game while ignoring Guille, who was absent most of yesterday?

Point is: You do not have some conclusive "uber bussing" meta that somehow forbids you from creating a fence-read on Guile.

And then nothing about Malakittens being scummy.

[penguin_alien]

If your vote's on Malakittens, I assume she's still your best scumread. As such, I'd assume you want others voting for her; why not present your case? How I feel about it: As to what you've been doing since then, I'd say defending yourself and asking people questions; when you get answers, I don't see you making statements that show you felt the answers helped you refine your reads.

As to me seeing your post in your ISO, in my first post after mastin2's answering my question, #737 (I'd link, but I'm on a mobile device that I'm not facile with), I noted that your response to him was bad. Pull up a triple ISO of you, me, and him to see the timeline.

Jal, my voting for CityElectric based on Loranthaceae being town was a matter of her placing a weak vote on someone Day Two for having made a bad case; I wasn't considering Day One voting patterns.

[penguin_alien]

I believe we have 12 hours, y/n?

[penguin_alien]

According to the rules in the OP, we have two week days from Day Two on. This day started around noon EST on Jan. 28.

[penguin_alien]

Lastsurvivor, I'll bite on asking for elaborations on your reads; wherever you think there's the greatest gap between what you've presented and what you're thinking.

CityElectric, what do you think about Lastsurvivor?

[penguin_alien]

Could we get some prods on people who haven't posted in > 72 hours?

Lastsurvivor, mastin2's post #800 seems reasonable to me. I don't know if I agree with his scum read on Mehdi2277 yet (the lack of deadline and players being MIA is messing with my sense of urgency) but the whole 'hoping to be wrong on the read' is independently shady for it being a reluctant hop on a lynch with an easy excuse ready for the next day phase.

[penguin_alien]

...this game has taken a turn into the twilight zone, relatively speaking.

Need to reread with keeping the replacements straight in mind. I'll decline to do the whole 'rank the lynches' thing until then, but it'll be within 8 hours.

[penguin_alien]

No, AP, I meant relative to how twilight zone-y the flavor made it before.

[penguin_alien]

...I lied; I'm falling asleep before I can draw my conclusions. Lastsurvivor still isn't a town read and I don't buy that he'd have self-hammered as scum. More tomorrow.

[penguin_alien]

My list is as follows, from most willing to lynch to least: Lastsurvivor, qwints, Nachomamma8, Malakittens, AngryPidgeon. Nachomamma8 only being third based on Junpei being a bit weird early on; my stances on Malakittens vs. Nachomamma8 aren't too far apart: mildly scummy, not enough to string up.

[penguin_alien]

I'm seeing more town reads of mine on the AngryPidgeon wagon than qwints, and obviously Lastsurvivor is going nowhere. Although I want to investigate whether those self-hammers left a last scum standing with four mislynches to survive or a comparable situation. A lynch trumps a no-lynch, and I'm leaning towards AngryPidgeon. No claim necessary on my account yet, as I want to use the last bit of time here to consider.

UNVOTE: Lastsurvivor

[penguin_alien]

OK, Lastsurvivor does have a habit of self-hammering as scum. (Loved the hammer in Author Mafia, BTW!). It doesn't totally make me think he's town, as letting his side go from two scum with daytalk to one isolated scum who could be not-psychic seems like a lousy place to stick a partner, but I get where the argument comes from.

[penguin_alien]

Jal, I haven't had you as a scum read at any point, and by #772 I had you leaning town. I don't know that there's any one thing in particular making me think you're town; more just a general willingness to engage.

I'm not particularly confident on qwints v. Nachomamma8 v. AngryPidgeon, but qwints seems to be pushing the whole 'scum off the guille2015 wagon' pretty hard without much else to support his opinions. I'm not getting a clear read either way from Nachomamma8 partly based on the slot being absent for a while there and partly based on him making some calls that seem hasty (like that Lastsurvivor definitely would have self-hammered), and between Adam-12/AngryPidgeon I don't personally want to lynch that slot.

All things considered, those things including a looming deadline and a really long day phase, I'm fine with a qwints lynch.

VOTE: qwints

[penguin_alien]

^weak

VOTE: qwints

[penguin_alien]

All of these dancing posts are making me want to go back to lindy hop and swing dancing.

[penguin_alien]

...gypsum, calcite, flourite, apatite, feldspar, quartz, topaz, corundum, diamond...

/geekiness

Ssriously, Malakittens and Lastsurvivor, any reaction to yesterday's wagons?

[penguin_alien]

Mohs scale of hardness 1-10 where talc =1 (insert inappropriate joke here)

[penguin_alien]

I wish.

[penguin_alien]

If anyone has a reason why qwints should be considered town, please share. Because his roaming voting is making more and more certain he's scum.

[penguin_alien]

UberNinja, save brain power and read early game knowing that the whole confirmation thing was due to the mod sending my PM to the wrong username.

[penguin_alien]

Loranthaceae's play last day phase hurt my town read on him. If qwints is scum, that means Mehdi2277 took pains to get me off my Loranthaceae vote and onto the guille2015 wagon. Which doesn't make sense unless Loranthaceae was more valuable to him than guille2015. And then Loranthaceae quick-hammered. Which doesn't add up well to me. Then Loranthaceae's 'attempt' to jump back on the AngryPidgeon wagon after the hammer had been placed: intentionally erratic, maybe? Blending in without leaving his name behind on the vote count?

I know a couple people have called Loranthaceae as obvtown as of day two, but I'm not seeing it so much. Not ready to call him scum, but he's not a straight-up town read right now.

[penguin_alien]

@penguin

That being said, Malakittens is correct that CityElectric hasn't been particularly pro-town in her postings, plus #526 is daring us to lynch her. Which is scummy as all get-out. I'm willing to see what CityElectric comes up with under increased pressure, so VOTE: CityElectric

Why is that particular post of CEs scummy?

I'd answer this, except a) I don't see why it's grabbed your attention all this time later such that you have a driving need to know, and b) heaven forbid I bore you further.

I have no more energy for epic full-thread readthroughs at this point so I'm just gonna vote who I suspect most:

Vote: Penguin_alien

If you opt to flesh this out further, I'm all ears. Otherwise, keep up the excellent grammar work!

[penguin_alien]

CityElectric, why is UberNinja a town read on his own merits?

[penguin_alien]

...you were already voting for me. And since I told you that I received my role PM late but didn't know that was the case, why are you acting all, 'OMG, found scum!' now?

[penguin_alien]

Penguin--liked them about two decades before it was cool. Alien--my initials. Plus you totally know Mulder and Scully found aliens in Antarctica--the penguins must have been covering for them.

[penguin_alien]

Argh, fine, we have time before deadline to see what UberNinja's take on the game is.

UNVOTE: qwints

Not revoting because of GreyICE-UberNinja, Loranthaceae, Malakittens, Nachomamma8, mastin2, Lastsurvivor, and CityElectric I don't have anything new to say. UberNinja, what time frame do you consider to be reasonable for your developing reads?

[penguin_alien]

Argh, fine, have vote counts assembled every 50 posts aside from lynches, which end a 2-page span prematurely and lump anything remaining on the page in with the next two pages (slots noted using their current occupants' names) (and abbreviated, because I don't plan to type player names out that many times, sorry, so here are abbreviations: CityElectric = CE, Jal = Jal, AngryPidgeon-Adam-12 = AP, T-Bone = TB, guille2015 = G20, Loranthaceae = Lor, penguin_alien = PA, qwints-Mehdi2277 = Q, mastin2-Juls = M2, Nachomamma8-Junpei = N8, UberNinja-GreyICE = UN, Lastsurvivor = LS, Malakittens = MK)

Spoiler: 1-2

Jal: CE, M2
TB: G20
MK: LS
N8: PA, AP
AP: Jal, Q

Not voting: TB, Lor, N8, UN, MK

Spoiler: 3-4

Jal: M2
Lor: G20, PA, CE
AP: Jal, Q, LS
Q: AP, N8
PA: Lor

Not voting: TB, Lor, UN, MK

Spoiler: 5-6

Lor: G20, PA, CE, UN
AP: Jal, LS
Q: N8
LS: Lor
MK: Q, AP, M2

Not voting: TB, MK

Spoiler: 7-8

Lor: G20, PA, CE, UN, AP
AP: Jal, LS
Q: N8
CE: Lor
MK: Q, M2

Not voting: TB, MK

Spoiler: 9-10

Lor: G20, PA, CE, AP
AP: Jal, LS
Q: N8
CE: Lor
MK: Q, M2
Jal: TB, UN

Not voting: TB, MK

Spoiler: 11-12

Lor: G20, PA, CE, AP
AP: LS
Q: N8
CE: Lor
MK: Q, M2, Jal
Jal: TB, UN

Not voting: TB, MK

Spoiler: 13-14

Lor: G20, PA, CE, AP, N8, TB
AP: LS, MK
MK: Q, M2, Jal
Jal: UN

Not voting: Lor

Spoiler: 15-16

Lor: G20, PA, CE, AP
AP: LS, MK
MK: M2, Jal
Jal: UN
PA: Lor
CE: Q

Not voting: N8

Spoiler: 17-18

Lor: G20, PA, CE, AP
AP: LS, MK
MK: Jal, M2
G20: UN, TB
PA: Lor
CE: Q
Not voting: N8

Spoiler: 17-18

Lor: G20, CE, AP
AP: LS
MK: Jal,
G20: UN, TB, M2, Q, MK, PA, Lor

Not voting: N8

LYNCH of guille2015

Spoiler: 21-22

LS: Jal
MK: M2, LS, UN
CE: Lor, MK, Q
Lor: CE

Not voting: PA, N8, AP

Spoiler: 23-24

LS: Jal, Lor
MK: M2, LS, UN
CE: MK, Q, PA
Lor: CE

Not voting: N8, AP

Spoiler: 25-26

LS: Lor
MK: M2, LS, UN
CE: MK, Q, PA
Lor: CE

Not voting: N8, AP, Jal

Spoiler: 27-28

LS: Lor, M2
MK: LS, UN
CE: MK, Q, PA
Lor: CE

Not voting: N8, AP, Jal

Spoiler: 29-30

LS: Lor, M2
MK: LS, UN
CE: MK, Q, PA
Lor: CE
Q: AP

Not voting: N8, Jal

Spoiler: 31-32

LS: M2, PA, Lor, Jal
MK: LS, UN
CE: MK, Q
Q: AP

Not voting: N8, CE

Spoiler: 33-34

LS: PA, Lor, AP
MK: UN
CE: MK, Q
Q: Jal, M2, LS, AP

Not voting: N8, CE

Spoiler: 35-36

LS: PA
MK: UN
Q: Jal, M2, LS, AP
AP: N8, Lor, MK

Not voting: CE, Q

Spoiler: 37-38

LS: PA
MK: UN
Q: Jal, M2, LS
AP: N8, Lor, MK
N8: AP

Not voting: CE, Q

Spoiler: 39-40

LS: PA
MK: UN
Q: Jal, M2, LS, AP
AP: N8, Lor, MK, Q

Not voting: CE

Spoiler: 41-42

MK: UN
Q: Jal, M2, AP
AP: N8, Lor, MK, Q, LS

Not voting: CE, PA

Spoiler: 43-44

MK: UN
Q: Jal, M2, AP, PA, Lor
AP: N8, MK, Q, LS

Not voting: CE

Spoiler: 45-46

MK: UN
Q: Jal, M2, PA
AP: N8, MK, Q, LS, AP
N8: Lor

Not voting: CE

Spoiler: 47-48*

MK: UN
Q: M2, PA
AP: N8, MK, Q, LS, AP, Jal
MK: Lor

Not voting: CE

LYNCH of AngryPidgeon

Spoiler: *48-50

UN: Lor
Q: PA, M2, N8
CE: Q
PA: UN

Not voting: MK, CE, LS

Spoiler: 51-current

Q: M2, N8, LS, Lor
CE: Q
PA: UN

Not voting: MK, CE, PA

Have at it, mastin2.

[penguin_alien]

That qwints has been happy to jump on two wagons so far today with zero motive given has no town interpretation for me. First UberNinja, now Lastsurvivor. It's just, 'lynch anyone but me,' without any indicators that he's working to prevent his own mislynch.

I would like to hear more from UberNinja on his opinions in general and from mastin2's VCA in particular before we end the day phase, but since qwints has claimed town test subject I'm not worried about his claiming MR or anything.

[penguin_alien]

Although I suppose they can post such information to their QTs overnight so it's not as much of a worry as it might normally be. I'll hammer in 24 hours.

[penguin_alien]

UberNinja, I'll assume you mean qwints' reaction to your Lastsurvivor vote, and said reaction was pretty bad. Especially since you spent a lot of time calling Lastsurvivor town this day phase, making your 'case' not exactly something qwints should have jumped on. Particularly now that he's backtracking onto CityElectric.

[penguin_alien]

All the completed games in my history except Newbie 1304 (Mafia), Open 459 (Mafia), and Open 468 (SK) are town. Have at it. Most of them I'm around for two day phases or less, so they aren't long reads. Except for NY 161, longest normal game on site, no thanks to me and with significant thanks to UberNinja and Vifam. Still not a long read for my part.

Still have intent to hammer qwints, but if we have one more day to go, I'm going to wait until I get home tonight and look over what mastin2 posted. Hammer in < 12 hours. Unless we're getting a CityElectric replacement and ensuing extension? I'll assume no unless we hear otherwise.

[penguin_alien]

qwints' VCA is focused on making us lynch off the wagon in a scenario where scum had daytalk to coordinate a bus more easily than normal, yet he's convinced the wagon on guille2015 isn't a good place to find scum. Then he comes in today expecting to be under fire most likely, and the best he can do is grasp at straws, most notably his first post of the day.

Can you articulate your case on Nachomamma8? Because 'feels different from his town game' doesn't cut it for me. Bearing in mind we're at deadline in less than 24 hours by my count.

[penguin_alien]

Mod, are we at deadline? if so, can we get an extension to clarify that? And maybe a CityElectric replacement?

UberNinja, does Nachomamma8 seem like he could be bussing with this push on qwints? Mehdi2277 was town in places, but qwints doesn't read town to me at all, especially with his cases today.

[penguin_alien]

mastin2, any conclusions from your VCA?

CrashTextDummie, what are your impressions of things not in the immediate lead-up to the qwints lynch?

UberNinja can be town for actively telling people to get off the qwints wagon. Argue against it as scum, yes; intentionally hinder it, no.

[penguin_alien]

CTD is n't really improving on CE's activity, and LS looks better than he has in a while. I'd be good with Malakittens or CTD by POE right now, but I don't feel confident enough to vote. I'll summarize my QT when I get my computer going, but in short I vent about the while confirmation thing and work out theories there before discussing them in game. Full version to come later, and I'll see if there's anything I forgot about.

[penguin_alien]

Also, question for you, Loranthaceae:
How close were we to deadline when you dropped the hammer?

A new deadline had not been announced.

My QT:

2-10: Confusion over confirmation, found it odd that Loranthaceae didn't RVS vote me, changed my mind on Junpei, set up a signal for MR to use if I was voting him when hammer intent was declared
11-20: First attempt for MR to signal me if he thought I was town; no result. Irritation with Loranthaceae, thinking Mehdi2277's observatuon made me near conf-VT, thoughts on Malakittens' take on me, interest in mastin2's initial posts.
21-30: Hating the quickhammer, doubting Malakittens, disliking CityElectric as well.
31-40: not impressed with LS response to my vote in terms of scum hunting, wondering how Loranthaceae's play compares to his recent completed scum game, conclude it looks different.
41-46: lot of confusion over who's likely scum.
47-48: asking the MR to reveal to all the next day since PoE should have the scum knowing who he is at that point.
49: realized Nacho had given me the signal that he was the MR on day three. Not sure if CTD should be the lynch today.

Malakittens has really fallen off my radar, rereading my QT.

[penguin_alien]

A new deadline had not been announced.

I would have preferred hearing it from the horses mouth. Loran claiming that he hammered qwints at that moment in time because the deadline was near is clearly a crock of bull and confirms that he

really

didn't want to hear anything I had to say. His argument "you haven't read the game, so don't act like you were going to contribute" is revisionist and disingenuous as hell as it's completely immaterial to the issue at hand. I had been in the game for literally

three hours

when he hammered, even if I wanted to I couldn't have analyzed the game in that time frame. I was going to contribute. Loran had zero indication to the opposite.

I realize that several people in this game seem to have town reads on Loran, and I would really like to hear from them why him committing a clearly pro-scum act and lying in his defense doesn't at the very least make them reconsider their stance.

Yes, I know, but he obviously wasn't going to answer, so. The only reason I'm not up for lynching him is that more people have very firm town reads on him than there are scum, including the late MR who had a complete newbie game with him where Loranthaceae was victorious scum and still read him as town here.

[penguin_alien]

Who do you think is scum, Malakittens?

[penguin_alien]

...I just realized how obscene my signal is. How awkward.

[penguin_alien]

Moving on from my gutter-dwelling subconscious, CTD, what's your take between Loranthaceae, Malakittens, and (on the outside) LastSurvivor? I'm reigning in my impulse to sheep you because it dovetails with my general irritation at Loranthaceae so nicely.

[penguin_alien]

...I just realized how obscene my signal is. How awkward.

How amusing.

To be fair it was an either/or thing. Which still doesn't help. Thank heavens this isn't Posh Mafia.

[penguin_alien]

Why, because Maestro would surely be making a sexual joke by now?

We'll alert him to this thread after the game ends.

[penguin_alien]

Seven alive, two scum? How do you figure?

[penguin_alien]

Prod dodge while waiting for CrashTextDummie to compile everything.

[penguin_alien]

Alright, question time.

----------------

penguin_alien

:
1. What was your primary intention in using your QT? It differs significantly in both style and content from every other QT. Why were you the player most interested in trying to figure out the MR (trying to get him to to signal you/trying to look for signals)?
2. Explain your Mehdi reads over the course of the game. Why were you intransparent at the beginning of D2 (you had her in a list of solid town reads in your QT, as going from "leaning scum to leaning town" in thread, then in post 772, you have her in a list of possible suspects but "moving towards town") when it came to her spot? Why did you call her out as shady for pointing out an alleged obvtown tell on you (QT 31), which happened on D1, after you had transitioned to a town read? What made you change your mind into lynching the slot?
3. Explain your (lack of) read on the AngryPigeon slot. There is virtually no analysis on it in your QT (mostly "where's Adam?!" type stuff, literally no non-incidental mention of AP) and nothing in-thread except you placing him at the bottom of a 5 person "want to lynch"-list and stating that you "personally didn't want to lynch him". He was not listed in your beginning of D2 town list, you have never openly expressed a town read on him, and yet you opposed his wagon for nebulous reasons but not really.
4. Who are you currently suspicious of? You've said at the beginning of the day that Loran is scummy and that you wouldn't mind lynching me either. Now that I'm confirmed town, why are you unwilling to update your reads until you've heard back from me?

1. I believe I tried asking for signals once from Junpei's time, once from Nachomamma8's time, and once from your time. I also included a way for the MR to signal only if he was about to be lynched and I could take action to change it. Given that the MR is the only non-vanilla feature of the game, making sure the MR has a way to make contact just seems like good sense. WRT other parts of my QT, I'll admit this has been a really irritating game for me. I don't like to get emotions mixed in with play, but it was supremely frustrating to have the whole confirmation-lying accusations go down at the start (mostly because I like to think I wouldn't be so stupid as to tell bald-faced lies like that) and I've found Loranthaceae to be rude enough that if this game hand't had such problems finding replacements, I probably would have replaced out. Otherwise I'm not sure what you mean by my using the QT differently; give me specifics and I'll answer further.

2. I found Mehdi2277 hard to categorize. His pointing me out as town was done in a way that made it impossible for me to be the MR, thus depriving the town of another potential killbait to help the MR hide. I guess my reads did vary as Mehdi2277 went wild with the GreyICE-CityElectric scum triangle theory. The slot got pretty scummy with qwints, especially as contrasted with the AP lynch. Then qwints kept tossing out votes like the one on UberNinja with an attitude of disinterest, like he figured he was going down but didn't want to help the town before doing so.

3. Adam disappeared at the end of Day One, which meant I had no idea how his slot would have reacted to the scum lynch, so no town read. AngryPidgeon's wagon didn't seem good to me. It was being pushed through with zero good arguments, which meant there was nothing to argue against. He was a better choice than, say, mastin2, but that didn't mean much.

4. I'd go with Malakittens first, and then I'm not sure between Loranthaceae and LastSurvivor. Loranthaceae is scummier, but I don't trust my read there based on my personal antipathy. LastSurvivor's gotten less involved since his defense Day Two, and I don't like that he wasn't scum-hunting much while under pressure. UberNinja's an outside shot, but only because he's tricky, which isn't really a reason. On Loranthaceae, Nachomamma8 saw scum-Loranthaceae in action in a newbie game and called him town here, which also influences my take on him. As far as waiting for your input before voting, why not reason with maximum information? Plus you asked us to wait on voting, and to me, accusations without a vote are rather empty.

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, I missed Nachomamma8's signal. I wasn't expecting him to go from questioning my towniness to deciding I was town enough to signal if he was the MR pretty much back-to-back. Otherwise I used my QT to record things I was mulling over but didn't want to bring up in-thread. Which wasn't all that much. And I expected that the MR would likely trust me Day One after the confirmation debacle, so it made sense to try to make it easier to communicate in a more directed fashion. If there was something I though the MR should know, it almost certainly would end up being shared with the town as a whole. Besides, if the MR doesn't trust me, what's the point of making a particular effort to persuade him about anything?

Let me specify: over the course of the game I found it hard to pin down Medhi2277. His interaction with the guille2015 wagon looked good, especially with him convincing me to vote guille2015 over Loranthaceae, but that only worked if I wasn't entertaining a Mehdi-Loranth scum team where Loranth was the psychic. It was a working theory I jettisoned when qwints flipped town.

And what was the town motivation in pointing out that I was town but not the MR based on the confirmation thing? Maybe it was just bad play, but given that I see Mehdi2277 as a good player, that's not my go-to answer.

Adam posted a lot, then disappeared. His signal-to-noise ratio was low, and he wasn't overly town or scum relative to others. I outlined why I wanted qwints over AngryPidgeon in #1060, and the rest of the lynch went down when I didn't have time to post. Before then I was on LastSurvivor, so no, I didn't get super-vocal in AP's defense.

Why do you want me to defend mastin2? He came in and went after guille2015 at a time when that lynch wasn't on the radar in my estimation, so unless he decided to jump-start things by bussing, him being scum feels unlikely. I suppose if Loranthaceae is the psychic mastin2 being scum bussing to save a more valuable role tracks, but there were plenty of other players to call out, and even if he took heat for the lynch later, he could be bussed at that point. So it doesn't look like an optimal play for scum-mastin2.

Look, there are seven players, five possible lynches to my mind. mastin2 is out, and I really don't trust my opinion on Loranthaceae. That leaves Malakittens, UberNinja, and LastSurvivor. Given that Malakittens has been disengaged by her own admission and UberNinja's been opaque in his thought process in-thread, yes I wanted to see where your analysis would lead. And yes, I play things close to my chest.

You say we're trying to solve the puzzle. You seem to have slotted Loranthaceae in as one of the pieces for reasons undisclosed. If you really think that, it's a different analysis than an unknown two-man scum team. I'm not inclined to jump through hoops to no purpose.

[penguin_alien]

CTD, my opinions are what they are. Maybe mastin2 is pulling the wool over my eyes, but at a certain point I needed to start with a town read somewhere. And it wouldn't surprise me if you were seeing how people react to the idea of scum-Loranthaceae when you actually read him as town. Since you're not sharing any reasons for the read, in the meantime I can't give it any more credence than things like UberNinja's gut based on in-thread evidence.

[penguin_alien]

CTD, if you have a case to make on Loranthaceae, please make it so we can move on. Otherwise put in your actual two cents so we can do something.

[penguin_alien]

You're not giving us any reason to think your reads are particularly accurate. Your strong feeling isn't exactly something to take to the bank, nor is your saying someone is 95% likely to be scum. Yes, you have access to another primary source, but it's not like what's there is any more impartial than what''s been stated in the game thread.

Actually, in reading through your ISO, it's not clear that you've read the game beyond the tail end of the qwints lynch and today. Maybe you have, but nothing you ask indicates that you have. I get that reading twelve QTs is a big undertaking. Still.

[penguin_alien]

Oh, I believe you've read the QTs, it's the game reading I question. I established my order of suspicions. If your analysis changes my thoughts, I'll share; otherwise I'm ready to move on to putting down votes to facilitate people putting their money where their mouthes are.

[penguin_alien]

I'd say the MR knowledge clears UberNinja, since I could see delaying killing the MR for one night but not two when killing him meant that the hunt for the new MR might have to start again. Barring said back-up MR revealing, of course.

Go read CityElectric's posts and yours from before your reveal. You both looked pretty bad, worse than Lastsurvivor. Now that I know those posts came from town, I know I missed something. So? I reprioritize the factors in my reads.

If you believe I'm scum and Loranthaceae's scum, why question my mastin2 read? We can't all be scum. In the meantime, yes, Lastsurvivor is questioning that mastin2 is either demonstrably way off on most of his post-guille2015 reads or is lying scum; we'll see how he deals with those questions.

[penguin_alien]

Way to stick to your guns, UberNinja.

CTD, your reaction to Loranthaceae's post really makes me think you haven't read most of the game from before you replaced in as I theorized earlier. Yes or no?

[penguin_alien]

re: VCA:

I'm assuming for this that GreyICE-UberNinja is town based on GreyICE knowing who the MR was from Day One on with Junpei-Nachomamma8 only getting NK'd Night Three. As I said earlier, I could see waiting one night to take down the MR, but waiting two nights doesn't track. So I'm assuming all votes that GreyICE and UberNinja made are town.

If we interpret the guille2015 as mastin2 bussing, and take into account that scum have day chat, such a move Day One should be optimized for both mastin2 and the other scum to get credit. That Lastsurvivor completely missed the boat on that vote implies to me that he isn't scum. The way the wagon went down knowing that bussing had to have been in play merits more than just the null read you propose, CrashTextDummie. That reduces the scum pool to mastin2, Malakittens, and Loranthaceae.

Day Two has mastin2 and Loranthaceae in rock-solid agreement on the Lastsurvivor wagon. To the point where mastin2's reasons for joining are Loranthaceae's arguments. It doesn't feel likely that they'd both go after a target with one propping up the other's case. mastin2 and Malakittens manage to stay on different wagons the whole day. This can be seen more clearly in the breakdown of where the votes stood every two days here.

By Day Three, both mastin2 and Malakittens (and Loranthaceae) end up on the qwints wagon. Given that mastin2 found out who the MR was that day, and the MR was the only other wagon being floated with any momentum behind it, it stands to reason that scum would rather be together on a town lynch than leave one of them as having targeted the MR. That the MR was supporting the wagon they were on only helps.

I don't see anything that points away from a Loranthaceae-Malakittens scum team per se, but given how much Loranthaceae has jumped around in his voting it's not altogether surprising. Based on the VCA and MR knowledge information, I'd rank scum team likelihoods as Malakittens-mastin2, Malakittens-Loranthaceae, and mastin2-Loranthaceae, with the last of these far behind. Which puts my preferred lynch order as Malakittens, mastin2, Loranthaceae.

I will note that to expand on CrashTextDummie's thoughts on my activity in the AngryPidgeon vs. qwints wagon, let's suppose a mastin2-me scum team. So here I apparently have all the groundwork laid to jump on town-AngryPidgeon. It's the end of page 42, my vote is free, and I don't capitalize on the chance to hammer town? Instead I go jump on a wagon with my scum buddy? Not so much. More to the point, my 'calculation' here was that Nachomamma8 was pushing a lynch on AngryPidgeon with no decent arguments and my two towniest reads, mastin2 and Jal, were on the other wagon. Coupled with my doubts about Mehdi2277, it's not a hard choice.

And yes, I hopped off the qwints wagon. Although I do ask, if Malakittens and I were scum together with day chat ability, what good does it do to implicate both of us in the wagon? If we wanted to stir it up, as Malakittens did in joining, why not have me 'get impatient with the lack of new arguments being made' and jump back on to declare it L-1? Malakittens continues her apathy, I'm the only one tarred with the brush of the townie lynch, and the law of averages means that Loranthaceae's vote ends up hammering at some point.

UberNinja, I do think that proposing a compromise lynch when CTD hasn't rejected your first choice is less than rigorous.

[penguin_alien]

UberNinja, CTD has said that your predecessor figured out who the MR was on Day One and commited to that read in his QT. If he was scum, there was no reason to do so in that way. He could have shared in the scum QT only. He could have played dumb with the MR; no signal was involved, after all. Even if it was a con job, there's no benefit to keeping someone around who can become a confirmed townie at any time, and certainly not for another two days. Loranthaceae's arguments don't hold water (see next paragraph) so I'm not inclined to change my town read on your slot, even if you're not choosing to present an argument for my lynch beyond PoE. I maintain that your jump from Malakittens to me is unsubstantiated and so worth challenging.

Regarding Loranthaceae's points:
1) The quickhammer on Day One was bad, independent of whether GreyICE thought we might have lynched the MR by virtue of it happening too quickly to allow us to milk information out of guille2015.
2 and 3) I don't know what he picked up on, so I don't know what tipped him off. My first thought would be that he read into Junpei's asking people to commit to their QT strategies in-thread as wanting them to be on record about their takes and he mentioned that he'd prefer the answers in the thread. As opposed to...? I didn't read that into his post at the time, but it's a possibility. If CTD can elaborate on that before the day phase ends, it might be good to know, I guess.
4) This wouldn't have looked good, I'll grant you. But if scum wanted to take that approach, why mention it in the QT at all?
5) The qwints mislynch would have been even easier to push if Nachomamma8 had flipped as the MR Night Two, since the dead can't change their reads, and Nachomamma8 would have been sheeped more heavily.

As for UberNinja pushing to lynch Nachomamma8 based on ego aiming to string up the MR, do you think he thought he could succeed in that? Since Nachomamma8 could have revealed to everyone at any time? That would be darn egotistical.

[penguin_alien]

So you prefer people to kiss up and be all penitent about incorrect reads. Got it.

And you think I sat around Day One being confused and irritated about the confirmation delay accusations when I could have figured it out much more quickly if I had scum buddies telling me I was late to the game. Because irritating people on purpose over trivial aspects of the game is a good way to avoid being lynched.

I guess we're allowed to vote now.

VOTE: Malakittens

[penguin_alien]

More seriously, what have I done that's scummy aside from not dancing to your tune? You say I didn't dive into reevaluating my reads quickly enough when we learned you were town. If I'd had you as scum due to an association with another player, sure, but I didn't have linked scum reads at that point, which means that you being town doesn't negate anything else. You giving opinions that come from confirmed town, sure, but you spent days questioning people about their QTs and deliberately misleading us about your actual reads.

[penguin_alien]

CTD, I would ask you to share the info on how GreyICE found Junpei to be the MR to clear that up and who you think scum are if you're wrong about me before the end of the phase. On account of you are.

[penguin_alien]

So are you going with a Malakittens-Lastsurvivor scum team if I flip town? Since mastin2 has become a town read for you.

[penguin_alien]

Yes, but my lynch isn't decided yet.

[penguin_alien]

Well, if you think Loranthaceae is town, I listened to a reasoanable argument to move to voting guille2015 Day One where I could have justified keeping my vote. I've explained where it would have been easy for scum-me to hammer AngryPidgeon post-page 42 and didn't. I opted to listen to what you had to say about qwints on Day Three when I had ample opportunity to hammer again.

What have I done that's scummy?

[penguin_alien]

Listening to people's arguments and deciding based on what I hear isn't opportunistic. I don't lurk strategically; I post when I have the time to do so and something to say. I say what I mean; I don't say things I don't mean, and if that means I avoid absolutes, then I guess I am guilty of using weasel words. I would argue that a lot of this game is reactionary; after the initial posts are made, most everything is done in reaction to another player's words. Pulling gambits is action-based rather than reactionary, and since I don't do that I'll concede that point as well. Setting off your scumdar, that I have nothing.

[penguin_alien]

Malakittens, based on #1695.

The tl;dr version of that post is that your slot isn't scum based on MR confirmation timing, Lastsurvivor should have been included in the guille2015 bus if scum with day chat, and there's nothing linking Loranthaceae to Malakittens or mastin2, and there's direct indication from the Lastsurvivor wagon on Day Two that he and mastin2 aren't paired. So take that opinion for what it's worth given how I got to that conclusion.

Look, I'm not 'blaming' CTD for my not voting prior to this. He made the reasonable request that we wait to vote to avoid the day ending prematurely, given that the theme of the game has been quickhammering, since this will almost certainly be his last chance to give his input. I'll grant that I haven't been able to talk my way out of things all that well as caught scum in my two games as Mafia, but trying to say that confirmed town is scummy? Incorrect, yes, susceptible to people agreeing with him/saying what he wants to hear, yes (with pre-emptive apologies to mastin2 if he's town who really did rethink his stances) (but that's not my read at present).

Malakittens doesn't read like the town player she's been in my past games with her. She says she grew weary of defending herself, hence the apathy, but my vote counts through Day Two in post 1315 never show her wagon as bigger than half of what's needed to lynch. Yes, it's irritating to be thought scum when one is town, but the town response to that is to address the arguments and keep scum-hunting. GreyICE has been gone for weeks. From a personal perspective, her about face on her interpretation of my vote for guille2015 at the start of Day Two doesn't ring true.

Is there anything else you'd like my input on to refer back to when I'm posthumous confirmed town?

[penguin_alien]

Votes from the start of Day Four:

Loranthaceae: CTD
CTD: UberNinja, mastin

at the end of page 61, and all seven of us were posting somewhere around there; this was pre-CTD MR reveal.

Malakittens: Lastsurvivor

by end of page 62. CTD reveals on page 63, at which point UN unvotes and moves his vote to Malakittens:

Loranthaceae: CTD
CTD: mastin
Malakittens: Lastsurvivor, Uberninja

CTD asks people to unvote to avoid anyone being in range of lynching, Loranthaceae votes mastin, Lastsurvivor unvotes, mastin moves to Uberninja:

Loranthaceae: CTD
Uberninja: mastin
Malakittens: Uberninja
mastin: Loranthaceae

Page 65, Loranthaceae votes for Lastsurvivor:

Loranthaceae: CTD
Uberninja: mastin
Malakittens: Uberninja
Lastsurvivor: Loranthaceae

Page 67, Lastsurvivor votes for mastin and mastin votes Malakittens:

Loranthaceae: CTD
Malakittens: Uberninja, mastin
Lastsurvivor: Loranthaceae
mastin: Lastsurvivor

Page 69, CTD votes me, I vote Malakittens, UberNinja votes me:

penguin: CTD, Uberninja
Malakittens: mastin, penguin
Lastsurvivor: Loranthaceae
mastin: Lastsurvivor

There was a brief period before Uberninja moved his vote that Malakittens was at L-1 (30 minutes or so)

Malakittens was lynchable for a while there, and CTD was lynchable pre-reveal.

[penguin_alien]

More specifically, CTD was at L-2 for 72 hours pre-reveal, Malakittens was then at L-2 for eight minutes, and the second time around Malakittens was at L-2 for 48 hours through the present.

[penguin_alien]

The L-1 for 30 minutes isn't much to me since we're not at LyLo. The 48 hours and counting at L-2 or more is.

[penguin_alien]

So Malakittens, are you going with a Lastsurvivor-penguin_alien scum team? Or is this an either-or situation? If you think we're a scum team, what makes you think so?

And what has changed between this:

I'm still undecided on LS. He makes me want to just hide in a damn hole because he's a puzzle.

and you voting Lastsurvivor?

[penguin_alien]

Lastsurvivor, I assume the post you linked was sarcastic, pointing out that they were hardly arguing over something neither of them cared about.

UberNinja, if you mean separately, the VCA really makes me think Lastsurvivor is town, and mastin2 is most likely the second scum. Connected, early game activity says no. It comes back to scum-mastin2 bussing, yet not making sure his partner was in on it? mastin2 apparently doesn't bus much; I'd expect him to go for maximum gain on the move. They did get into it Day Two, but I don't believe that Lastsurvivor's defense reads like an interaction with a scum partner.

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: penguin_alien
I'm voting you because the MR says so but also because I hate you and I think you wanting me dead so fast is scummy. Now do us all a favor and flip red.

Because sheeping the MR worked out wonderfully the last couple days. /sarcasm

What's your reasoning besides me voting you Day One, along with four confirmed town (and yes, one scum)? And who do you think works for a second scum in that case?

And much as I dislike the idea of someone hating me on such a light pretext, I can only assume that is the case here, given the overwhelming volume of statements you've made to that effect.

[penguin_alien]

That's hammer. I would recommend that a) CTD explain anything GreyICE left to indicate why he figured out Junpei was the MR, and b) that whichever of you is town do a hard reset next day phase, because whatever has led us to he last three lynches is way off.

Ask me anything, and I'll try to answer before the flip. Which will show I'm town.

[penguin_alien]

If Lastsurvivor is scum, he's playing it pretty close to his chest. Probably town.

Loranthaceae, I have yet to hear a good reason why he's town. Not going to be lynched given MR endorsements and living player reads, so not a top priority. If he's scum, it's likely with Malakittens or UberNinja.

UberNinja, don't love the hammer, given where you were earlier in the day. Still a likely town, as it's a big risk as scum. One that could pay off though, especially if his partner (likely Malakittens) is off the wagon.

mastin2, drive-by voting. I am sorry to hear that his dog is dying; my condolences. The difference between his push on guille and his investment in my lynch is still significant.

Malakittens...so her new case is what she was saying from Day Two about how I was bussing: even though she and I voted simultaneously, my vote was so different from hers. And the MR said my trying to give the MR a way to fill me in if he thought I was to be trusted...I must be scum! And the whole self-sacrifice attitude read like a chance to let a partner bus. Giving up is not pro-town, sorry.

But I meant what I said about people figuring things out tomorrow with a fresh start, as my independent scum-finding record is pretty shoddy.

[penguin_alien]

OK, Malakittens, I'm town. Who's the scum team? If I'm lying/trolling, let's assume that anything you say won't be held against you. You say Loranthaceae makes you wonder. I agree that he was taking a big risk pushing Lastsurvivor Day Two if they were partners. His voting habits are objectively suspect, and he's tossed out some pretty wild theories of how scum might be flouting site guidelines in this game. What do you see there?

UberNinja, do you really thunk you're a better target than confirmed town? Sounds disingenuous. And please don't say you were trying to talk the scum into killing you instead. Given that scum orchestrated a bus day one and stayed off the gallows for three days, I don't buy it. And are you really ready to line up lynches in advance of my flip?

[penguin_alien]

For the sake of people not you, I'll throw in the combinations with you. They shouldn't affect what you wanted me to answer.

Most to least likely IMHO:
Mala/mastin
Mala/Lor
UN/Lor
UN/mastin
mastin/LS
UN/LS
Mala/LS
Mala/UN
Lor/mastin
Lor/LS

[penguin_alien]

I do feel badly for the scum that twilight has been allowed to run on like this. Not badly enough to do something about it, although again, I have to point out that if I were scum, there's no way I'd still be hanging out. I'd have told the mod the hammer had come down, and one would hope he'd have posted the flip, since he's been on within 24 hours.

And yes, Malakittens, I get what you're saying. I'll admit that I worried about being a quicklynch at LyLo to lose things for town. I can see where you could be town very easily. In terms of teams being connected, I see it most likely being you and mastin, but with daytalk, it makes it easy for scum to decide how they want to interact all along the way, so it negates some of that. Hence my hoping people are open to thinking about things from a fresh start tomorrow.

And WRT Nachomamma8, he nailed me as scum in Open 459. Like, from beyond the grave. And he read me as town in Micro 99 where I looked darn scummy for some early tunneling, so yeah, I'd put some stock in Nachomamma8's reads if he has history. Which raises the question of what the heck happened with AngryPidgeon and qwints, but that's for post-game analysis.

And yes, UN, you did indeed vote along with Loranthaceae when it was likely that he'd change his mind again and didn't back up his case beyond 'hates me, thinks my avatar is too different from my game play to be trustworthy, finds me boring' if I can paraphrase his thoughts from earlier in the game. So woo-hoo.

[penguin_alien]

True, UN, although it did occur to me after the fact that we could have no-lynched for two days to force the scum to clear someone. Probably not enough trust in play for that to have happened, but it would have been an option.

Normally I don't talk in twilight, but if I'm being lynched and it doesn't end the day, I will make an exception. Although if you're talking about 468, there was no way to talk without being a troll after the fact, since by playing it safe in not quickhammering I was walking the troll line as it was. It would have been mean to let njoseph gloat about pulling off a draw only for him to find out he'd lost.

[penguin_alien]

Oh, yeah, another weird ending one. There I had to shut up due to the modkill kerfuffle. Plus I do believe in letting mods get the fun of the final flip, which wouldn't have applied here if I'd been scum. It's never dull around here!