Mini 1522: AA - MFA (Game Over!)

[KingdomAces]

VOTE: Mac

For stealing ffery's opening post. Thievery is a crime too.

Spoiler: 3-2

Ignoring the fact that the only time Phoenix defended in a thievery case, he successfully cleared a guilty party...

[KingdomAces]

...I really want to be voting Marquis after those two posts, but from what I know about Marquis, I'd think that he would have learned to stop doing stuff like that because of how easily it gets you lynched. He's probably town.

I can't say the same about Pie though. I don't like it that he was the second person in the game to use the exact same "I'm scum help me bus" joke.

Also before everyone Mac thinks he can ignore it, I would like to mention that even though my vote was obv-RVS, the accusation is still some level of serious. RVS is hard enough since people do the exact same thing every time so people physically can't look at their play and say that it is independent of their alignment. All copying other's mannerisms does is drags the process on.

[KingdomAces]

Where am I saying Pie is scum? I'm only saying that I'm not giving Pie the same townread I'm giving Marquis for doing similar things.

My vote is on Mac for a reason, and will remain on Mac until I get a response.

[KingdomAces]

The question is, if you are going to post, why do the single most useless thing you can possibly do? Yes it's RVS and there hasn't been anything that you can react to so far, why not try to start something instead of continue the trend of uselessness?

[KingdomAces]

That's not answering the question. I'll respond to that after you answer it.

[KingdomAces]

I know ffery does the exact same thing at the start of every game because I stalk the title fairy thread, and she was recently nominated for a title solely because of that.

The vote on Mac was solely a pressure vote, note that I only said it was some degree of serious. I couldn't think of anything game related to say to Sakura, and I knew if I responded to ffery then I'd just get pointed to that post in the title fairy thread. That left only you and Cabd that I could physically think of something to say about. Of the two, I don't trust myself to read Cabd at all, and I was hoping you would say something alignment indicative in response even though I know my reasoning was terrible. Leaving my vote for now, because you haven't actually provided any sort of bit.

PEDIT: Need to leave now. Not pediting.

[KingdomAces]

Cabd, I skimmed Xenologue while it was happening, and I got absolutely nothing off of you there. Also, I forgot to mention earlier that another reason was because by the time you posted it was already a trend. Once again, Mac doesn't have that excuse.

Kaze, the point was to try and put as much pressure on a single person as possible to attempt to get a clear reaction. Spreading out my comments would have diminished what little effect they had to begin with. Who would you say are those tons of other people who approached that level of not doing anything anyway?

Same question to Mac, with the addition of "why does other people following you make it okay?"

Pie, with regard to Brian, what should he have responded to Kaze's post with that isn't being defensive? If you're saying that he should have completely ignored it, then what's the purpose of RVS?

In other news, Kaze seems town so far.

[KingdomAces]

No, but it does make me less inclined to target you when attempting provoke enough of a reaction to get a solid read within the first few hours of the game.

[KingdomAces]

Well then. Are you satisfied with how it turned out? Because it looks like it didn't do a damn thing. By the way, I'd think you'd come up with something better than a "sorta RVS sorta serious" RVS vote to pressure someone if you were really intent on doing so. I must say you're not very intimidating.

uhhh half the player list? You read the first page, right?

No, I'm not really all that satisfied. Also, why do you think I'd be able to do any better? Despite my join date, I'm actually probably one of the worst mafia players in this game.

And yes I did read the first page, but I was already committed by the time most of it happened. Even without that, at the very least everyone else provided some sort of WIFOM, which is at least slightly better than what Mac did.

Mac, if you aren't saying that people following you makes your post okay, then why was the only thing that you responded to the question of "Why did you just copy ffery's post?" was that other people did it as well? I haven't moved my vote off yet because you haven't actually answered that question yet. I would be fine if you just said something to the effect of 'I couldn't think of anything else to say'. The fact that all you have been doing is sidestepping just really seems off to me.

TNE, I would rather be pushing a scum wagon, but I have no clue what a scum wagon would be right now so a random wagon at least attempts to get reactions, which is really all I'm aiming for here.

More later, I have access to a computer now, but I still don't have too much time.

[KingdomAces]

Prodded, catching up now.

[KingdomAces]

no it wasn't, can you stop misrepping me? my response was actually "why just single me out when other people did it too?" which is not saying it's okay because other people did it at all. not that i really care for this conversation any more:

attempting to troll ffery

is not alignment indicitave whatsoever. maybe try looking at the other 11 players too?

I was looking for what possible mental state that you could have been in that would cause you to do something like that. People who posted after you have no effect on that, so it shouldn't have been part of your response. The bolded statement is actually an answer to that, so I'll drop it as promised.
UNVOTE: Mac

I already explained why I didn't look at anyone else at the time, but if you are referring to since then, then the answer is time. I actually got AA:DD less than three days ago, and since then I've beaten it. That was really the only thing I've been doing when I had free time,

but now hopefully I should be able to actually get reads on everyone here.

Actually turns out that staying up all night playing it isn't very conducive to actually being able to understand what I read. Tomorrow. For now though, I'll say that something seemed off about pie before his argument with Sakura, but during it he came across as fairly townish. Since I don't really remember why I thought otherwise in the first place, I'll have Pie as town for the time being.

Spoiler: Not Serious

the all contradictions = scum method works for me, except on you as I've learned from that game

OBJECTION!
So you are saying pretty much every single witness in the series is scum?

[KingdomAces]

Hi, I'm not planning on replacing out, but sorry for missing most of yesterday.

For the moment, I have Geists/Bert/Marquis as more likely town. Geists was only out obv-towned by Kaze, Bert seems far more genuine than the last time I saw him, and I haven't changed my opinion on Marquis since page 1.

I think that just leaves Mac/Sakura/Slimer/SSK. I never did do that in-depth reread of Mac, but that will be my first priority when I'm not rushing. I think I had mild gut townreads on SSK, but I am not confident in that at all.

[KingdomAces]

I realize I didn't include Cabd/Kalimar in my first post. I see no reason to doubt Cabd's claim for the moment, so he's auto-town until something else comes up. Kalimar is sitting in the null pile, because he's apparently just forgettable.

And no to the flavor claim. Something tells me that all it will end up doing is outing the PR's. Just look at the flips so far: PhoenixPR and Lotta/Oldbag VT's. If we are doing a flavor claim, then we might as well fullclaim, since we might as well be giving the same information to the scum. Now is also way too early for a fullclaim.

[KingdomAces]

What town benefit could there possibly be to outing the PR's?

[KingdomAces]

They get killed by scum before they actually get to use their role, and then we're playing mountainous. No amount of turning your thinking around will make that a good idea.

[KingdomAces]

I really think that burden of proof is on you here, since if we massclaim now and get nothing from it, which I think would be far more likely to happen, then we are just giving scum the win.

I also should mention that we already lost a free mislynch in the form of Kaze's role. There's no way something that strong is going unchecked by anything other than the chance they get killed before they use it. We are already incredibly behind, there's no reason to risk losing on the spot.

[KingdomAces]

...you are claiming MoeCop? What?

Sakura seems to be proving your point better than you are, because that makes absolutely no sense. But anyway, why would you think scum would fakeclaim a PR? They're ahead, so they wouldn't need to do something like that.

[KingdomAces]

If there's two scum kills per day in a mini, multiple roles that block them are pretty much required in order to stop the game from ending pretty much immediately. I actually would believe that both are town at this point.

Sakura, don't forget Kalimar. Also, if you are trying to JK offensively, then don't state who you are JK'ing in public, because that wastes the action.

[KingdomAces]

I don't want to claim, because doing so would make my role pointless, but I will say that I don't have a targeting ability.

[KingdomAces]

Godot.

[KingdomAces]

I don't know if anyone updated this or not yet:

Bert-Maya Fey, 1 shot channeler
Sakura Hana-Moe, Jailkeeper
Cabd-Director Hottie, Doctor
SSK-Gumshoe, Tracker
geists-Sal Manella, VT
Mac-Winston Payne, VT
Kalimar-Franziska von Karma, VT
Slimer-Will Powers, VT
KingdomAces-Godot, Passive PR
Marquis-Edgeworth, 2-shot Hider

Kazekirimaru-Phoenix Wright, IC-er
pieguyn-Lotta Hart, VT
Brian Skies-Wendy Oldbag, VT

I don't understand Edgeworth being a hider flavorwise. Also mod WIFOM, but I don't think that both Marquis and Kalimar would be town, because that would mean that all of the non-Manfred prosecutors would be in the game and town, which doesn't seem right to me. There seems to be far too many PR's at present, and a large portion of them are confirmable in one way or another. Because of that, I think we should be focusing on the non-Mac VTs for today. That leaves just geists/Kalimar/Slimer, though myself should probably also be included in that list for everyone else also.

I don't have geists of as much of a townread today as I did yesterday, because I really don't like how they pushed the massclaim like this. Also, Sal Manella seems like a really weird character to use as a VT, especially claimed along with Oldbag/Powers. Both of them were in 2-4 in addition to 1-3, while Sal was never brought back. This is especially weird given the absence of Larry. Since most of this is just flavor spec though, this is only downgrading them to null-town for me.

I'll give more on Slimer/Kalimar when they give more.

[KingdomAces]

Another thing I just noticed--look at the graphic in the first post. Anyone wanna take bets GIF put the three faction leaders in it(Phoenix, Edgeworth, Godot)?

I'll take that bet, since I know it's wrong.

Anyway, if you think I'm an SK, wouldn't that mean that I am actually on your suspect list, and therefore would want me to be more specific in my claim?

I still think that we should be focusing on the VT's today, because if Sakura is actually telling the truth then we should at least let her use her cop shot, because we could use as many confirmed town as possible in that case. I do agree that fakeclaiming, then claiming Damon Gant is incredibly unlikely as town, but it's not actually 100% confirmed.

Need to run, more later. Last thing I want to say is that there is no way Gumshoe is scum. Seriously. With Sakura's claim, SSK should just be confirmed town.

[KingdomAces]

Geists, what Bert quoted was what I was referring to as well. If it was a bluff, why did you call it five posts later, without me being on in the intervening time.

Bert, just that Sakura did the gambit isn't the worst part of it. Flavorwise, Damon Gant is far more likely to be a scum role than a town one. While yes, Sakura's right that my role is in a similar position to her claimed one, anyone whose played the games would note that there is a clear difference in how each of them are presented.

Also, I appear to have lost the train of thought that I was on before. Anyone have any questions for me while I try to find it again?

[KingdomAces]

Oh yeah, my opinion on Geists' plan. My main issue with it is that SSK shouldn't state who he's planning on tracking, because the only way that he would actually catch scum making the night kill is if there is only two groupscum and we lynch one of them. Unless someone actually claims scum or we have reliable information otherwise, we should never just assume that the person we lynch is going to flip scum, and only make plans for that scenario. A tracker's chance of tracking the night-kill is already decently minimal. There's no reason to make it completely non-existent.

Sakura, I know that. What I'm saying is that the tone surrounding it is night and day between them, and that is more than enough to call it a difference.

Spoiler: Followup to Sakura's spoiler.

Also, technically 1-4 is the final case of the first game. 1-5 is just a bonus added to the DS version of it.

I'm not saying that you are definitely scum because of flavor. The fact that you claimed a different character first, and changed it when people didn't believe it is the problem here.

Marquis, flavor explanation of EdgeworthHider please.

[KingdomAces]

Am I right in my spec on your role?

Probably.

[KingdomAces]

First, Marquis still needs to explain how Edgeworth being a hider makes any sense at all.

Aside from that, theoretically SSK could be scum with Sakura, but for the moment I see absolutely no reason to doubt him. Also, even though Marquis's claim is incredibly suspect, I'm willing to call Mac near conftown because MacScum would require Marquis and Mac to be on the same team, which would first require the setup to be 3 scum + SK. Once again, possible but there's too much calling it unlikely to act on it right now.

Bert needs to use his ability today. That will make him near conftown and give us something else to work off of.

That leaves:
6. Marquis
8. theslimer3
12. Kalimar
13. KingdomAces

As the only possible scum left. If Marquis manages to give a reasonable explanation, then we should be leaving him alone also leaving just slimer, Kalimar, and myself. This is probably selfish of me, but since I really don't want to accidentally lynch Bert today I suggest that he targets me, since I'm the only unclear person who doesn't have a fairly decent chance of being Scum from my POV.

[KingdomAces]

I believe that, but we shouldn't be quicklynching anyone because Bert needs to use his ability today before that happens.

[KingdomAces]

Seven alive means four to lynch.
VOTE: KingdomAces L-3

Because there was a doctor, and whoever didn't kill him probably didn't want to go 50/50 on who Cabd would protect. And I didn't say anyone was clear, just pseudoclear to the point that we might as well ignore them for today.

[KingdomAces]

Anyway, I'm completely up for a Slimer lynch now, but before that I think that everyone alive should at least say something before we end the day, so not voting yet. I personally don't see how this could be anything except three total scum with Kalimar being the other one though. If there is another after that, it's probably SSK since Godfather implies cop. Bert still could be a scum medium, but I don't think that there's anyone in the flavor that would match that.

Nati, it looks like you were actually right about massclaim solving it. I probably should never have doubted you.

[KingdomAces]

That seems incredibly scumsided, though in this game I'd say that there's more than enough town power to warrant there being three mafia + SK. Anyway, I guess I should do a simulation to see if we insta-lose if Slimer is town and Marquis is scum.

Spoiler: Simulation

Bert/Marquis/MafiaSSK/

theslimer3

/Mac/Kalimar/KingdomAces

If Slimer is town, then the only near conftown remaining are me and Bert, so assuming scum manage to kill both of us without targeting the same person...

Bert

/Marquis/MafiaSSK/Mac/Kalimar/

KingdomAces

Marquis/MafiaSSK/Mac/Kalimar are alive tomorrow, which is an instant Mafia win if there are two of them remaining. That means SK cannot cooperate with the Mafia, and would be forced to kill one of them instead. Since I'm officially conftown now, and Bert isn't I assume I'd be higher NK priority than him. SK would probably play it safe and go for the guaranteed Mafia in Marquis.

Bert/

Marquis

/MafiaSSK/Mac/Kalimar/

KingdomAces

Four alive, one Mafia, one SK. Our only choice at that point is NL and hope the other factions crosskill, which is not exactly pleasant.

Short version, if there are three Mafia + SK, and Slimer is town instead of opposing scum, and both factions kill a different person tonight, then we're pretty much screwed. The thing is though, A: that is a lot of if's, B: Godfather implies Cop, C: I still have more of a townread on Marquis than on Slimer now that his claim is cleared up. I think lynching Slimer is still likely going to turn up scum. Regardless, we should still probably treat this as a standard 1v1.

PEdit: Morgan Fey can't channel.

[KingdomAces]

My reasoning around that was if Marquis is SK, then he has no way of knowing that Slimer is town, so there's a decent chance we'd be lynching scum anyway. If SSK is town though, then that implies that Marquis is likely the SK, because I think that it's usually the Mafia that kills the Doctor, and the SK that goes for someone else.

If Marquis is town, the Mafia are Slimer/SSK, which means Kalimar is probably SK.
If SSK is town, then Marquis is SK and the remaining mafia is two of Slimer/Kalimar/Mac. The fact that I think Marquis was the only person who thought that Pie was a universal townread despite being one of the major wagons of D1 supports this as well.

It looks like I'm going to need to do some rereading afterall. Meanwhile Marquis, could you give flavor explanation for EdgeworthCop? I didn't question it before since it makes far more sense than tracker, but it doesn't seem quite as well aligned as everything else seems to be for the moment.

[KingdomAces]

I mostly wanted you to use it on me because it pretty much was game over if you used it on scum, and I knew that I was a potential mislynch, so I thought it was safest. Unfortunately this doesn't really give me anything new to work with, but I think that's better than just losing the game on the spot.

And If I had any information, I would have given it by now. Just treat me like a VT, because that's pretty much what I am right now.

[KingdomAces]

Bert, you are saying Marquis is Mafia, right? In that case, do you think that the SK killed Cabd and Mafia killed Geists, or do you think SSK is the SK?

Maybe I'm being to narrow minded, assuming that it is always the Mafia's job to kill the Doctor and if there's a second kill it should be elsewhere, but I think that it's incredibly unlikely that the Mafia decided not to kill Cabd while the SK didn't just assume that the Mafia killed him.

[KingdomAces]

I may have missed what 1334 a response to, but "Objection! I object! That was... objectionable!" is an Edgeworth quote, so it couldn't have been a Phoenix softclaim.

I don't think Marquis should be lynched unless we're sure. There's so much scum out there right now, and something tells me that either Marquis or SSK is actually town. If it's Marquis, Slimer/Kalimar are both confirmed scum unless there's only one mafia left. If it's SSK, then if there's three scum then two of Slimer/Kalimar/Mac are scum. If they are both scum, then it's still a 50/50 between Slimer and Kalimar for the third. I can't say I trust my reads, but I think the odds are better with one of them today to try and get more information for tomorrow.

[KingdomAces]

Err wait. Both scum means that Mac is still unclear, so that would be 33% each, and by Fire Emblem logic, 33% only happens when you don't want it to.

I don't know, okay? I didn't ask for this kind of pressure.
Oh wait, I did when I asked to be confirmed town. Ugghhh...

[KingdomAces]

And if there's only two more scum left, then it's not MyLo today, so we don't need to be as worried.

[KingdomAces]

GIF couldn't come up with flavor for Hider

Do mods normally help with finding flavor for fakeclaiming town?

Doing some ISO's, and SSK's interactions with Sakura and Slimer D1 seems like it could be a weird form of coaching.

Can't think straight anymore, that is if I ever was thinking straight in the first place. I really think I should just leave this for now and come back later. Sorry.

[KingdomAces]

Wait, you hammered while I was continually putting of working on this?

I actually kind of appreciate it. Thanks.

[KingdomAces]

Sorry, I was more focused on Mish Mash stuff. I'm not going to disappear though, and I'll try to figure out where I stand, or at least come up with some sort of plan overnight.

If marquis is SK, then SSK is definitely a tracker. That doesn't necessarily make him town though.

[KingdomAces]

So Slimer and Kalimar, who wants the win?

[KingdomAces]

Actually, I'm an idiot.

VOTE: No Lynch
No reason I can think of not to do this.

[KingdomAces]

We still have a chance if we no lynch, because then they'd be forced to kill each other or lose themselves.

[KingdomAces]

Can we just No Lynch already? I'm not moving my vote, and there's really no reason to keep this game going any longer than it needs to. Everyone already knows everyone else's alignments, so there's nothing to discuss during the day. Lynching anyone would result in a town loss, and since you need at least one member of town on any lynch that happens, no one is ever going to get lynched. All that's left is who gets NK'd, and since there's no discussion needed, we might as well get on with it already.

In a similar note:

Mod: Can we request to end the night as soon as all actions are in instead of waiting the full time, since presumably there isn't any nighttime discussion anymore?

---

As long as everyone agrees.
~Mod

[KingdomAces]

So, next time I get bulletproof, I'm just flat-out claiming VT. Sorry for not being obvtown enough for my role, and then making it obvious that scum shouldn't have been NK'ing me. I knew beforehand that I would be busy those first few days, but I still joined anyway because I thought it wouldn't end up being quite as important as it ended up being.

Personal QT if you care.

[KingdomAces]

The main thing that I'm upset about is that at the end of D1, I said in my PQT "To look into more thoroughly: Mac/Sakura/Pie/Slimer/MafiaSSK." after giving townreads on everyone not mentioned except Kalimar since I forgot he existed. Pie was killed that night, and Mac had an innocent on him. That meant that I had a townread on every single remaining town, and I didn't have a townread on any of the scum. Instead of actually doing anything about it, all I did was waffle around hoping that everyone else would decide a lynch without me. Aside from not claiming VT and not being active D1, I know that what I actually did wasn't really bad play. It's just that I could have won us the game and I didn't. At the time I thought that that was at least better than leading a lynch on someone who ended up being town, thus forcing us to lose, but now I'm not so sure.

Anyway, dead QT?

[KingdomAces]

From the dead QT, one thing that I think I should mention is that the IC'izer wasn't just a day-cop. If Bert used it on scum, then the day would have ended with us lynching Bert. Because of that, I do still think it was better that he used it on me instead of on Marquis. If I wasn't BP and hoping that at least one of the scumteams couldn't tell that I had pretty much claimed it already, then I might have not pushed for myself to be quick-IC'd, but FMPOV I still think that was the better option, especially with the SK kill of the night before that being the person that called me the SK.