Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Glork]

/confirm.


I a very seriously considering generating my list by some random and/or arbitrary manner (if indeed I have a list of targets to make). I have not yet looked at my role (only seen that I have a role PM for this game).

[Glork]

I really don't think that randomizing a list will have a negative impact at all. I realize that this may theoretically be a cover if I were scum, and I understand that I will have that stigma against me for the entirety of the game. I almost posted in the signup thread that I was considering doing this, but I felt that to be somewhat unethical.

If I'm not scum, then the scums will have an unknown role with an entirely unpredictable list to consider when they set up their actions.

I realize that all of this is contingent upon actually believing that I don't know my role, but I think I can solve the randomization "problem." Here's what I was thinking of doing:

• I choose five different permutations or operations to perform on the players of this game, and I post those operations in the thread.
  
• Using the dice function, I randomly select one of those options, but I do not tell you which one I select. (Basically, I'll list the five options, privately assign a value to each one, then roll 1d5 in-thread.)
  
• I
  then
  roll a series of d12s. I was thinking of doing thirty of them -- in case one of the operations continually tries to make *me* the target -- and choosing the first twenty applicable ones.

By doing this, the five possible series of actions from which I have chosen will be determined publicly before night even falls, but only I will know which one I am actually going to use. That way, everyone knows that I will have genuinely

randomly

determined my list as much as can be publicly proven. If anyone else has a better strategy for randomly choosing a list, I'm interested to hear.




If there is an objective case as to why randomizing a list for an unknown role is inherently bad for the town and/or beneficial to the scums, I'd like to hear it. If not, I plan on going through with the plan.

[Glork]

For the record, I am about 75% sure that LmL is protown.

[Glork]

For the record, I am about 75% sure that LmL is protown.

Well, I'm about 40% sure he's scum.

I believe LmL's sorry plan to be a genuine mistake. Stoof said that he had balanced the game to safeguard against claims such as LmL's. I think that LmL's proposal was a result of his overenthusiasm and his inability to read the opening posts.

It's entirely meta, but it's a meta about which I feel very strongly.



I still haven't seen any proposed reasons as to why randomizing a list would be a bad thing. No takers?

[Glork]

I still haven't seen any proposed reasons as to why randomizing a list would be a bad thing. No takers?

Because you can do better? Because this way you're avoiding responsibility?

But how would non-randomization be "doing better"? That's kindof my whole poit.

As to the "avoiding responsibility" thing, I fail to see how that's A) Relevant; or B) True to begin with. I've taken on a different kind of responsibility/accountability for my behavior simply by claiming ahead of time that I want to make a random list. I figure that I am more likely to be protown than scum, and if I have a role ability, then it could mess with the scums' most carefully laid plans -- especially if I have an important ability.



Xdaamno: I'm not sure why you've chosen to focus on the case of a

Doctor

randomizing choices. Anyway, to answer your question -- the Doctor's job would be to predict the scums' targets each night, and to try to protect against their kills. There's a pretty massive WIFOM game going on, so I fail to see how carefully choosing a list D0 would really be all that beneficial for a Doctor anyway. As far as other roles go, they fall into a similar situation, especially with roles that involve information. Of the most "typical" roles, the Roleblocker is probably the one that I think matters the least. I have no idea how I would go about choosing my list if I were a Roleblocker. I donno... it seems to me that all of the town's lists are going to be underinformed, whereas the scums will have at least a decent idea of how to lay out their gameplan. I'd like to try to throw a wrench into that potential gameplan, if possible.

[Glork]

Mod:

A clarification on the rules.... since you say "

all

players with night choices must send me a list of

all

their targets for the entire game," can we safely assume that there are ZERO night choices that can be switched or decided upon mid-game?


I have to say, I think that a lot of this strategic list-making hubbub is really pointless. And that's why I proposed making a random list to begin with. I've already thought of a mafia kill strategy that mitigates the usefulness of a Doctor role (other than possibly a lucky strike or a single Doctor strategy which I don't find likely to be employed), the Watcher claim could theoretically be prevented through the use of a Mafia Roleblocker or some such similar role. The "measures to prevent against claims" bit could be something like a one-shot Mafia Daykill (which would

NOT

be a night choice and, could potentially be decided at any point in time).

Point being, we have no idea what we're up against. While the scums are somewhat in the dark, too, they obviously have *WAY* more information than we do. Does anybody else remember the lengthy discussion that dominated the beginning of Lights Out 2 and ultimately led to virtually nothing useful being accomplished? It revolved around the fact that the game was non-mountainous, that rainbow brite said she'd taken steps to prevent game-breaking strategies, and then a bunch of town players kept trying to break the game... such as when Stoof made his ill-advised claim.

I think all I've gotten out of this is that LML is almost definitely town. Other than that, I really doubt I'll care if I have a role ability. I'd just pick my targets as best as I thought I could, on a complete whim, and see how things fall out.

This game is going to be won or lost on the strength of our day play, not on the strength of the night choices we choose.

I would suggest that we all keep that in mind and not put too much focus on our lists.

[Glork]

EBWODP:

Mod: A clarification on the rules.... since you say "all players with night choices must send me a list of all their targets for the entire game," can we safely assume that there are ZERO night choices that can be switched or decided upon mid-game?

...that is, after they are initially chosen and D0 comes to an end.

[Glork]

Stoof sucks and just gave me my role PM via AIM.

[Glork]

I've also been thinking, it seems as though the mafia would want to talk as little as possible today, whereas the town should be discussing lots in-thread. Minus points to everyone who is slacking.

[Glork]

Note: I will be making each post from here on out as though I had a power role to devise a list for. Not saying that I do or don't, but I don't want anybody to jump to conclusions. I would suggest that everyone else does the same, regardless of their actual role.

I'm leaning more towards agreeing w/Distad here (which is probably not surprising to anybody who has read the thread). I've got a few inklings, but not really anything that I would want to skew the entire on. The lists will be interesting, and I'm not quite sure how they'll affect our day play. But like I said, day-game will likely be, by far, the deciding factor here.


I really think that I've gotten about all I can possibly get out of today. I'm just ready to game on at this point.

[Glork]

I make that three pseudovotes on BMQ (CES, me, Simenon) and none on anyone else. Anyone else want to take a position (either for or against anyone) before we go to night?

noimgood


thxtho <333

[Glork]

Vote: Simenon

[Glork]

FoS: Xdaamno

[Glork]

I'm implying that you're trying to convey a false sense of surprise and/or dismay.

[Glork]

You could be faking dismay as methodical scum without being a randomkiller. I'm not sure why you're assuming that I accuse you of being a randomkiller for the FoS.

[Glork]

I did FoS you for your comment. But your response:

What, are you implying I

'randomly slew'

someone

...assumes that I am accusing you of being one specific killer (the randomkiller), rather than being scum in general, which further makes me wonder.

[Glork]

Right. And I'm curious as to why you assumed that I accused you of being the randomkiller. Usually when somebody suggests that I am scum, I don't automatically conclude that they're accusing me of being a specific scumbag. I don't see why you

wouldn't

consider otherwise.



This, of course, assuming that the randomkiller is scum -- I would imagine it's a Random SK, but if it's a random Vigiilante, they should claim

IMMEDIATELY

[Glork]

Actually,

Unvote Simenon; Vote: Xdaamno

. I'm willing to pursue this a little more seriously.

[Glork]

I'd lynch you a dozen times over before I lynched BMQ.

[Glork]

Now why do you want to lynch me all of a sudden? Or do you mean Xdaamno?

No. I said I'd lynch you a dozen times before I lynched BMQ. All it means is that I don't suspect BMQ as much as I suspect you. You're performing stuntman-like conclusion jumping.

I read the "random" kill as non-methodical/non-planned, also.

VitaminR, why do you want to create a Flay wagon? You already said that you don't subscribe to the SK theory.

Unvote, Vote: Glork

I'm surprised that you're attacking Xdaamno for his comment. Weren't you surprised to see a "random" kill? I didn't expect to see that. It seemed to me that Xd was questioning the exact wording of the flavor.

Yes, I was surprised to see a "random" kill. However, saying "Wow, I didn't expect there to be a random kill! This sucks!" is not going to accomplish anything at all. There's a reason that comments like "Good job Doc," "That was a bad night," and the like are scumtells -- they give the appearance of caring about the town's state of being without doing anything. Place a vote, pick a fight, make an observation that is actually

relevant to finding scum

. Don't say "aw, this sucks."
(

FoS: Flay

, by the way. I somehow missed his post in which he did the exact same thing.)

I'd like you to answer these two questions, Distad:
1) Would you get any information whatsoever if I typed "A RANDOM KILL???"
2) Would you expect somebody to come into the thread and go "oh, I thought that would happen" (as you seem to be implying that I claim to have expected a random kill)?




I think I could subscribe to VitR's Reason #3 for suspecting Flay, but I'm not sold on the other two yet. I would also point out that I don't think Xdaamno claimed anything (as the reasonable assumption for a vanilla townie is that they'd have no list to make). I could see Flay's reaction as fishing for confirmation or denial of Xdaamno's "claimed" role.

[Glork]

No. I said I'd lynch you a dozen times before I lynched BMQ. All it means is that I don't suspect BMQ as much as I suspect you. You're performing stuntman-like conclusion jumping.

"A dozen times" is pretty strong, Glrok. It suggests more than merely being more suspicious of me. The statement was inconsistent with your previous posts and there was very little reason for you to hold your opinion. I personally felt it was most likely you had simply meant Xdaamno, as that would be consistent.

FoS: Glrok

It does not necessarily suggest that I am "more than merely more suspicious." It could suggest supreme confidence that BMQ is scum. If you'd like a similar, recent example, take this one, from Calvin & Hobbes:

I'd lynch PJ before I'd lynch Skruffs.

Then again, I'd lynch anybody but Glork before I lynched Skruffs. Dude's so obvprotown, it's not even funny.

You asked me to join a wagon on somebody I do not want to lynch right now, and I told you that I'd much rather lynch you than BMQ. It suggests a difference between my suspicion levels of you two, but that's far from damning as you suggest.

You are making a mountain out of a molehill, and I do not like it one bit.

[Glork]

Dude, what did I say?

"A dozen times" is pretty strong, Glrok.

Showing willingness to lynch me once before lynching BMQ would be a molehill.

Showing willingness to lynch me a dozen times is not.

Again: Hyperbole.


And really, if I show a preference to lynch you, why wouldn't I show a preference to lynch you again (and again and again and...)?

[Glork]

Again: Hyperbole.

Erm...

Hmm?

[Glork]

Yes. It was a statement of hyperbole, though I've been defending the message I intended to convey. I'm not sure what you meant with your "Erm..." post.

[Glork]

Glrok, after I explicitly made my objection known, why did you ignore it? I never implied I had a problem with you being more suspicious of me than BMQ.

I'm not sure what you're referring to here.

Again: Hyperbole.

Where does this "Again" come from, Glrok?

Oh, I thought I'd mentioned it being a hyperbolic statement earlier.

And hey, what is hyperbole used for?

to create a strong impression

*gasp*
Just like what I've been saying! Showing willingness to lynch me a dozen times is a strong statement! Which is inconsistent with the rest of your posts.

First of all, it's only sometimes used "to create a strong impression," as indicated by the word "may." Your selective quoting has been noted. Secondly, I was going for the "Intentional exaggeration" definition given by Dictionary.com so as to create dramatic effect.
However, if I want to concede the "strong impression" point, I'd assert that I wanted to create a strong impression that I suspect BMQ less than I suspect you. So there.

[Glork]

Flay wagon please.

Sure, I'm game.

Unvote, Vote: Flay

[Glork]

Honestly, I've pretty much lost all incentive to play. I can't choose my night actions based on how today goes, and I can't pwn some players based on their night actions. Combine that with the fact that nobody else seems to want to post either, and it becomes pretty hard to stay motivated.

[Glork]

Right now, I think Sim is probably town... for the record.

You've been 0 for 2 so far, Distad. Wanna try again?

[Glork]

Unhelpful? I've already told you that Simenon is town. Clearly a misrepresentation.

And it's not opportunism if I'm jumping on scum.

[Glork]

...and wish he hadn't been quite so cavalier about outing his role and painting a target on his own back.

Does this mean you think that the kill on LmL was not determined by truly random means?

[Glork]

You've told us that Simenon is town.

That's great.

Um... WHY?

Mostly 'cause I said so.

[Glork]

Glork, you have to convince others for your "knowledge" to do any good....

Silly Flay, what Glork says is law around here! Did you not see the role somebody devised where anybody "Glork" helped to lynch became Mafia upon their death?

But if you want an explanation, it's almost entirely meta-based. This sounds like protown Simenon, whereas I recently saw scum-Simenon who behaved differently. I realize that won't do you or Distad much good, but it's what I've got, and I feel comfortable enough with that read to state that I think he's protown.


And no, I don't know what "Randomly slain" means, but my gut reaction was to believe that it was truly random. I'm not a big fan of random actions, but I've definitely seen Random SKs before (such as armlx's Random 2 comes to mind first, which was won by a Random SK). I figured that the Mafia's kill was methodical, and the random kill was from an SK.

[Glork]

Ask yourself this: if the SK were truly random, what are the odds that on Night 1 he would randomly kill the only claimed power role?

(Well 1 in 11, obviously, but hopefully you see my point)

*shrug*
Bad luck happens. If it didn't, I'd be a millionaire by now.


The reason I think it's random is because the signups and opening post indicated to me (fairly clearly, I might add) that nobody would be able to choose night actions after D0 had finished. I wanted to doublecheck this with Stoof, but instead of confirming that, he chose to put in the "unless your role specifies" clause. I honestly think that he did so to antagonize me, partly because of the whole "I didn't read my role" bit.

The one loophole I had noticed would have been the use of day actions (such as a one-shot mafia daykill), since the rules specified that only night actions had to be determined by the end of D0. However, I don't know if Stoof would've come up with that, and we obviously haven't had a kill yet.

[Glork]

I know this is gonna sound biased because he's trying to lead a 'wagon on me, but I'm really not a fan of Simenon at this point. Go through the filter of his posts, there's really not anything there that could be helpful to anyone. Maybe I'm just really against one-sentence posts (and lord knows Simenon isn't the only one guilty of that), but I'm just saying be wary of who you are trusting to lead this wagon.

Seriously.

That's simenon's playstyle.

Get used to it.


However this:

I did a quick re-read and page 6 is rife with anti-BMQ points that I agree with.

Another example of one-sentence posts that are extremely unhelpful. Joining a bandwagon without any real explanation to accompany it. What, specifically, do you agree with? What parts of my play do you find scummy, so that I can address them? I demand specifics.

is

[Glork]

A) I don't have a meta on Distad like I have on you
B) Distad isn't accomplishing much by name-calling without evidence (says the pot to the kettle)
C) His suspicions so far have pretty much sucked

[Glork]

D) I like the questions that BMQ asked -- they seem to be good ones for Distad to try to answer if his suspicion of BMQ is genuine
E) Have I mentioned that BMQ is a bad lynch today?
F) 'Cause I said so


....I think that covers it.

[Glork]

B) Distad isn't accomplishing much by name-calling without evidence (says the pot to the kettle)

I must be misunderstanding.

Why is he not accomplishing much by wagoning bmq?

E) Have I mentioned that BMQ is a bad lynch today?

Seriously, Sim. Stop playing terrible and start lynching scums, okay?

[Glork]

Because I've already found the scums on his wagon.

[Glork]

Actually, Sim, if you think that the wagon has been productive, I want you to explain exactly why you think it has been productive.

Who on the wagon do you think is protown?
Who on the wagon do you think is scum?
What do you think of the people off-wagon who have commented on BMQ?
What do you think of the people who have posted but have not commented on BMQ and/or his bandwagon?

[Glork]

Because I've already found the scums on his wagon.

Good. Name them, so we have more to go on. Or is there particular reason you're holding back your suspicions?

Seriously, this day is fragmenting something serious.

Distad, obv. Do I really need to spell everything out like this?

[Glork]

Unvote, Vote: Distad

[Glork]

Eh, worth seeing if he draws a nightkill. If he's scum, that means crosskill. If not, we can hopefully hit scum today.

Unvote, Vote: Flay

[Glork]

Er, wait, his innocent was on Flay.

Unvote

[Glork]

Now, by "second" cop, do you mean that there are just two regular cops, or were you a Deputy/Backup which became a Cop N0?

[Glork]

By the way, I've requested prods on Nocmen and BMQ, as both of them seem to be MIA right now.

[Glork]

Feh. I really don't want to lynch anybody who's at the two-vote threshold right now, although I suppose I could swing a vote on BMQ if

absolutely

necessary.


I want to hear more from Xdaamno, Nocmen, BMQ, and VitR. I have a feeling that at least a couple of our scums are in that group. Erg0 could be scum, too -- more likely Methodical scum than "Random" scum, if so.

[Glork]

Well, it works in his favor if

he

is the non-methodical scum, which is exactly why he was being strung up in the first place.

Xdaamno, I don't have the whole game figured out. Saying "at least a couple" in a group of 4-5 isn't really

that

strong a statement. But if I accept Distad's claim as true, accept Flay as an innocent, and know that I'm protown, then I'm looking at a group of about seven players. I'm just naming my top remaining suspects and positing that the scums are probably in that group. Do you have a problem with this?


Who are your top suspects, Xd, and why?
Why haven't you placed a vote on anyone if the deadline is this near? Will you be around later to place a vote?

[Glork]

Vote: Erg0

[Glork]

Keep in mind, people, that if there is a cult in this game, there must almost necessarily be a Vigilante. I have no idea why people are even suggesting "Cult with a nonrandom kill," because that seems horribly broken.

Also, given Stoof's recent modding history (Space Monkey and Calvin&Hobbes), I would not trust any possible hints/information from him. Remember that in Space Monkey, the townies thougth they were all traitors. In C&H, the game had a 10-2 mountainous split, but claims were barred outright (so as not to make the mountainous setup obvious). Interesting to note, these "twists" tend to skew things in favor of the mafia a little bit.

I'm not yet willing to state that one of Seol/Distad has sanity issues (assuming that Distad is a Cop, of course), even with a deceased Watchman as well. As BMQ pointed out, we are severely weakened in our night abilities by the fact that we had to choose them all D0. Further weakening a town by giving us sanity issues would also be extremely difficult to deal with.

Erg0: I just haven't really liked your posts/votes so far during D1. You seem awfully bandwagon. You voted Xdaamno after I voted him, FoS'd Flay after he had early pressure from VitR et al, jumped on the BMQ wagon, FoS'd Distad after he garnered some pressure. The one thing you had going in your favor was that you were the first person, I believe, to actually lay a vote on Distad (although I had made it abundantly clear that I was not happy with his play/suspicions).

[Glork]

Also, Erg0, could you explain this:

I can't really treat voting for Flay as a definitive scumtell, though I have thought throughout the day that the case on him was weak.

...in relation to this:

I often use the tell that Glork refers to as a basis for an early vote, but it rarely carries through to a lynch without further evidence. Of course, evidence comes through pressure...

Vote: Xdaamno

FoS: Mr Flay

, pending his response to VitR's response to him.

....and this:

Hmmm... persuasive as that was, I'm going to say no. I would like to see Flay respond to VitR's original post though, since I still have an FoS resting on him pending that response.

[Glork]

What have I dodged? Nocmen's post 359, "scummy things overall". VitaminR's post 347, "BMQ is the best bet". A couple people have put me on their scum list. That's fine, but how do I defend myself against that? I can't defend myself against generic posts. If there were specific things mentioned wrong with me, I'd be more than happy to address them, but I can't. And since I can't defend against them, you might as well shove them in my face and say I'm dodging.

Phantom pressure leading to possible lynch is why I believe BMQ is very likely not teamscum. FYI.




Also, lynch Erg0. kthxbai

[Glork]

I've also come to look at my top 3 suspicions, slightly changed from the 5 I listed earlier.
BMQ
VitR
Erg0

2 and 3 are :goodposting:

We should also run up one of CES/Xdaamno.


Especially Erg0. EVERYONE NOT VOTING ERG0 IS EXTREMELY SUSPECT.

[Glork]

Nocmen has almost achieved Confirmed Town status, except he is not voting Erg0. This is a problem. It should be remedied posthaste. (Posthaste is, like, my word of the week this week.)

@ Suspected everyone in the game. I don't think I've suspected BMQ, Simenon, or Glork. Or you, incidentally.
Also, it's not my fault that my initial Flay/Distad suspicions were wrong. I *was* right about Distad trying to deflect away from Flay, but for all the wrong reasons. (I did the exact same thing in FTF when I went after AdeleCop in part for deflecting suspicion away from Mgm, whom I suspected but was Innocent in Adele's eyes.)



Also, Scully is hot.

[Glork]

Daykill: Erg0

[Glork]

BMQ scum, calling it here. Feel free to embarrass me once the game ends.

Okay, I will.

Now can we please vote Erg0? The Huggle Alliance supports an Erg0 lynch.



Sim, what points from yesterday do you feel have not been adequately addressed regarding BMQ?

[Glork]

Yeah, 20 minutes is plenty of time to wait for a defence there, Glork. I'll assume that was a bad joke and post regardless.

The missing link in my Flay progression is this post:

I'd be ok with voting for BMQ (obv), distad, or maybe Xdaamno today. I'm not really seeing the Flay thing at all.

That was the point at which I indicated that I was ok with Flay's defence.

Well, I take issue with your assertion that you never saw anything in the case against Flay. Obviously, if you FoS'd him for pressure and wanted to see his response, you had to have seen

something

that you liked in the case.

Also, I FoSed distad (with a case) quite a while ago, before you expressed a strong suspicion of him. If anything, you jumped onto my wagon, rather than vice versa.

This is factually inaccurate. I got on Distad's case for making two bad votes before you made your "You've voted for four different people" case. It should also be pointed out that VitR FoS'd distad (agreeing with me) in this post, again

BEFORE

you made your case against Distad.

I also pushed Xdaamno a hell of a lot harder than you did.

That doesn't really say anything in your favor. I made a "Page 1 vote" (as in, first page of D1) based on a classic "scumtell," and you're the one who actually harped on it as if you were trying to build a wagon. While I still see Xdaamno's initial comment as a small black tick against him, you seemed to want to make it a large black mark. Taking somebody else's case and rolling with it, especially when it's that weak, seems pretty scummy to me.





diesuckdie

[Glork]

Also, you never answered this question:

Since nobody else asked...

Glork: why is BMQ a bad lynch today?

Distad did ask that, and I already told him that it's 'cause I said so.



BMQ: Vote for Erg0, plz? Pretty plz? I will continue to love you forever. <3

[Glork]

"Because I said so" is not a valid reason this close to the deadline.

It's going to have to be. Thou shalt not go fishing!! D:<

[Glork]

Sim, what do you think of Erg0? Why have you ignored the dialogue between us?

[Glork]

You should read it. And then you should switch to Erg0.


<3

[Glork]

"Because I said so" is not a valid reason this close to the deadline.

It's going to have to be. Thou shalt not go fishing!! D:<

Asking for the reason that you hold a particular opinion is not fishing. Calling it fishing is dropping an unnecessary breadcrumb. If you're a power role trying to stay hidden you could at least try to cover it with some logic - "because I said so" is hardly subtle.

Nah, you're fishing 'cause you're scum.


The proof?

It's in the pudding!

[Glork]

Nocmen, what is your opinionof Erg0?

[Glork]

Erg0: Call it my meta on BMQ and my obersvations of his wagon(s), if you must.

[Glork]

...or it's just the excuse that I gave to get him to shut up and hang. >.>

[Glork]

EBWOP: Okay, in all seriousness, I should probably explain myself.

Yes, there are reasons that I so heavily have advocated not-lynching-BMQ today. Among them are the meta/wagon reasons that I just mentioned. There are also other reasons for my behavior which I do not, at this time, wish to expand upon. That's that. You can take my words however you want, but I will not elaborate any further on the matter.

[Glork]

I cannot believe it took you guys that long to lynch Erg0.


I can *almost* understand lynching Simenon (even though from my perspective, he was obviously protown). But seriously -- why did

nobody

even bother reviewing the case I put together against Erg0?

I should also point out that both players who went "Huh?" over the randomkill were scum, as I indicated. Go go JeepTells!

Anyway, I'm glad you guys didn't blow it for me.