Mini 1826: The Purge - Game Over

[shos]

OH NO U DIDNT
VOTE: nosferatu OMGUS

[shos]

ohai! Kuroi is here! and moi!!!! <3

[shos]

so um, to be the first who starts some serious discussion.


This whole 'stranded' thing...it basically means we don't actually have a lynch, right?

and if we run out of shots, we are just fucked and game's over?
like
if every townie targets the one above them

then we have it guaranteed the stranded player dies and the strongman dies
but we can't kill scum anymore so we instalose?

[shos]

I did not suggest it as a good plan, I suggested it as a doom plan.

and the role PM sort of suggests citizens have only one shot, and what's the point in barricading if you have to CHOOSE to use it? because all maf kills are strongman, lol

and I missed the part where the stranding is only ifno lynch is reached.
so it's fine.

[shos]

Only 1 mafia kill is strongman. The others are backup

nay, after the strongman dies, the backup becomes strongman

[shos]

OH I GET IT NOW
mod should have corrected me when I confirmed...... >_>

[shos]

we can easily kill 4 people on each night lol

[shos]

I thought I was a one-shot bulletproof and a one-shot vig.

[shos]

[read the role PM (not carefully enough it appears) before reading the rules and setup]

[shos]

I haz meta avidans ov kuroi scumzorz
VOTE: kuroi

[shos]

Why are you using a 2008 account

lololololololol

[shos]

I guess you could meta me, but I doubt you will because nobody does. not properly.

I can use some help.

Myeah, the meta check out. You pretty much roll like that.

Argument out of the window, then.

How do you get a sufficient meta in 4 minutes? I mean I can't... Eh fuck this I'm hailf drunk with a headache. I'll come back tomorrow.

true dat

VOTE: Realeo
nobody gets meta so quick

[shos]

paaaaaahhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyjtawp

[shos]

OH NO U DIDNT
VOTE: nosferatu OMGUS

QFT

[shos]

can we haz sum moar voatz on realeo

[shos]

I thought I was a one-shot bulletproof and a one-shot vig.

[read the role PM (not carefully enough it appears) before reading the rules and setup]

So you confirmed telling the mod you are 1 shot of each and he didn't correct you?

Precisely.

And realeo: I am a grad student lol, that does not hold water.

One does not meta RVS alone. What is to be gained? If this is what you say you did, please elaborate on what you were looking for, what you found, and how that influenced you?

[shos]

The real question is why gou would egen try to check those facts and whther or not you actually did that check or you are lying.

Why is being gibberish scummy for you? Did you also meta me for my gibberish?

[shos]

Yo guys
Crazy day
Ill read uptomorrow

[shos]

Il be here tomorrow.

Lol jk
Lane it is legit that peoplenotify that they are busy. Also considering that like 5 people got confused withthe rules, im p sure it is not a scumtell

[shos]

@MOD we need serious clarification regarding the lynch/strand methodology.

[shos]

So as I said at first, our only way to harm scum is through night shots.

[shos]

Also that means that scum can shoot 3 times each day, guaranteeing 2 deaths each night only by scum shots.

[shos]

in short, this game is going to be reallllly short, and we're going to all have to use our shots smartly

[shos]

You septuple-posting wont help me underatand

There is no misunderstanding here
There are two contradicting options

I want clarification from the mod, not you.

[shos]

That thing about lane is correct, I didnt think about it. When youbare town and someone continues your train of thoughts you nod and say "YESZ". You dont attack the one agreeing with you.

Anyway, realeo, you are wrong because even if scum have only 1 strongman shot, the othrr kill can damage non-barricading town.

Generally, again, we must doscuss the setup because it is to our best. Everyone must understand that the only way we have to harm scum is by nightkilling them. We cannot all use our barricade.
If we all shoot, we have good chances of hitting some scum. But we may also lose at least 3 townies.

Since we are guaranteed 2 deaths at least if we do so, we shouldnt all barricade,but also shouldnt tell who is and who isnt. In my opinion, after d1 we still have no idea about flips, so only shoot if you have a reallly good scumread. Then later we will reveal ithose who barricaded before those who took shots and see what we can gather. We also must remember to try and avoid the masons...

[shos]

I disagree. Being a town leader on a mislynch does not earn you scum points imo. Much more scumpoints are goven for 'agreeing and sheeping' someone else who leads a mislynch.

[shos]

@50: I really hope people do not shoot only out of policy. Considering the gamestate, people should consider whether or not theres a townie who would shoot them etc.

Btw, in hopes that at least one mason survoves the night, I think it is best if they only speak up after one dies, and for that, at least one of them should barricade each night they are both alive.

[shos]

Moi, I didnt get anything from it. Shame.

Currently my scumleans are pisskop, lane and 50.

[shos]

Oh man
Thus no lynching thing is goong to piss me off

[shos]

50, if you missed it, Ive been llayimg this game more than you. Setup advice are needed at this point because this is just about the point where we all understood what the setup is, and we REALLY have to be smart with it because we do not have the lynching mechanism and can lost 3 townies per night even wothout shooting our own.

Where am I fishing for masons? I wrote guidelines for what I would do at night if I were them in order to help town utilize their existence the best. I do not understand any point you tried making if there was one.

[shos]

Fact is scum dont really care even if the strongman is lynched. Our lynch is very weak. Our shots must be distributed well.

[shos]

Shaddow, i dont recall a reason to vote you?
And do you think this is what lane was doing? Scumhunting through who-agrees-with?
He just said it washis line of questioning. Didnt call scum.

[shos]

I need to reread this game
People who are inactive hurt this game mucho

[shos]

Good stuff PV. Ill post from home

[shos]

I've read up to page 14 not including. in my opinion, if we can find a plan that PROVES responsibility for stuff that happen which deviate from plan, we should use it. The only think I currently can think of that fits is if we divide to threes, where two kill the third and the third barricades. That way if anyone who had to die survives we know that one of the shooters is scum.

This means we can force the scum kills OR narrow down pools largely.

reading up, putting thsi here for comments meanwhile

[shos]

guys the setup is symmetrical. We don't have to go 1-2 3-4 5-6 by PVs plan, we just have to decide which couples do that, which we can do by scumhunting. All we need is that the most scummy ones are defending. PV's plan may be solid.

[shos]

I think PV's plan is solid.

if we scumhunt today, order our 6 most scummy people, and have them barricade while the other 6 shoot them, we should be at our best position, I think.

[shos]

that is, of course, assuming we have at least some capability to scumhunt. We only need to narrow scum down to 6 for that to work.

[shos]

if we come out night one with nothing that points to strongman's location
then switch up even and odd roles, as its likely strongman and a goon are adjacent on the list in a way that made it possible for strongman not to be caught
that way, the only way strongman would not be caught no matter what is if theyre positioned between 2 goons...and the probability for that to be true is too low given that roles were randomised

forgot to add: dont forget that the current list in the OP is the signup order list, guys

That doesn't matter, again, we can choose to reorder the list as we wish

[shos]

guys the setup is symmetrical. We don't have to go 1-2 3-4 5-6 by PVs plan, we just have to decide which couples do that, which we can do by scumhunting. All we need is that the most scummy ones are defending.

This is potentially better but no cigar.

why not?
that kinda throws all that you say out the window lol

[shos]

Can we officially say that we have a plan and start over D1 as a normal scumhunting game, so that we can end today with a stranded guy and a list of 6 X shoots Ys?

[shos]

This streak of posts is one of the worst trainwrecks ive seen lol
Im literally laughing loud

I have enough reasons to keep my vote on you. First would be the above flailing attempt to derail a good town strategy.

We talk and play like normal. We decide on 6 scummy and shoot them. It doesnt matter who shoots who.
If scum nokill we just repeat. We have no lynch so they kinda have to eventually.

Also trading 1 scum for 1 town is very good

[shos]

Btw it took you 28 minutes to make these 4 posts

Hilarious

[shos]

That is the point of choosing 6 people.
If we choose well, the shooters will not have scum. If we fail, and coincidentally that scum shooter is supposed to shoot his buddy, then yes, a kill goes through. Hence setup is not broken. But then we have rhem paired up.

[shos]

how on earth did you count at least four townies dying?
since all town shots are nullified, even if we are 100% incorrect, there are only 3 deaths, and we have 10 alive with at least 3 conftowns.

[shos]

What the hell are you talking about?
SM kills one, ok, another scum kills one, ok, another. That is 3. Where is another?

[shos]

Dude. We are talking about N1.

[shos]

[shos]

VOTE: pisskop
His refusal to cooperate with literally anything is annoying the fuck out of me and by now I think it is clear that this is needed. not going to let this be a shooter.

PV's plan is a good one. My refinement where we scumhunt and choose the 6 scummy ones to be shot is good, and kraska's refinement about N2 is reaaaally nice (should anything bad happen N1, that is).

Currently, I have three townreads:
{PV, kraska, moi}
and 2 scumreads:
{pisskop, realeo}.

That is where I stand.

also the above posts in this page look terribad. Realeo should really be shot as welel.

[shos]

Im really saying out loud "what the hell" when I read your posts piss. Seriously.

Is there anyone who still disagrees to scumhunt as usual and have the most scummy half being shot as per PVs plan?

[shos]

Im phoneposting, I missed moi not agreeing. Will get to that when i get time.

And pisskop - once again - our plan, even if rabdom - without D1 scumhunting - only allows scum 1.5 kills. If we do scumhunt, scum will have AT BEST 1 kill.

[shos]

Restating jn case this is not clear:
We choose the 7 most scummy people. Strand 1, and have the others shot by the 6 not chosen. Any scum in those 7 cannot make a kill without dying.

If you think so, tell me why this is bad

[shos]

Assume 1 scum is outside of those 7: then we lose 1 townie. No biggie, we recalibrate and go again. If we truly suck and 2 scums are out, we lose 2, still no biggie and we have a small pool to find those 2 from, in addition to the masons claiming D2 in such case.

Worst case scenario for you realeo - we missed ALL THREE SCUMS. This means we lose 3 townies, have 4 conftowns. So 10 alive, 4 conftowns, 7 shots at night. Each one of the 6 gets a shot. At least 1 scum dies, if scum try to kill more than that then more scum die.

[shos]

Oh and we might have more than 4 conftowns of we get lucky with masons,btw

[shos]

Im glad vedith gets it right
Going to stop answering this thing, lol
I am wasting my time here.

We need to start the actual scumhunting part of the day, for that we need the lurkers to not lurk.

Should we start rvs? We can leave realeo and pisskop aside lol

Pedit: what the fuck do you want,Jesus.

[shos]

We only need 7 people agreeing actually
If any of the townies who know they are going to be shot doesnt cooperate they just suicide, that will be stupid as fuck, no matter how pisskop screams

[shos]

Yeah, sure, I guess. This setup with no lynch robs town of loads of its power. With this town im officially giving up. See you in the dead thread, townies!

I will make a hypothetical and we'll see how well it would have gone after

[shos]

lane0168 is shot by PV
Almost50 by MoI
Epod~lady is shot by shaddowez
KuroiXHF by shos
Realeo by vedith
Nosferatu by kraska

pisskop stranded

[shos]

I think you missed the hypothetical part, al50...

[shos]

*thinks*

both Kuroi and Almost50 seem to have completely ignored the part where this is a hypothetical of what we'd do if we worked my way
it is literally one post above that.

Kuroi, why are you skimming?

[shos]

50, the point was to revisit that post game. I also don't see the point jn AtE in mafia, I dont do that as scum.

Realeo, youve fucked the thread long enough - where exactly is that middle ground?

[shos]

1. last time I checked PV is the one who offered this plan? you really oughta make the difference between "not 150% support" and "refuse".
2. I forgot again about MoI, but today I have some actual time, I'll iso him

[shos]

So there's really nothing in MOI's ISO that would make me remove my townread on him. Also he does not say that he won't cooperate.

These are worth replying to:

Stop discussing plans.

There is not going to be a plan.

Any publicly stated plan is easily co-optable by scum since they know the expected outcome and can deviate to their benefit. And no plan that can hold them accountable for deviating is likely to result Town immediately losing overnight.

The only Town players who should be making coordinated Night plans are the Masons at this stage.

Perhaps later in the game if there is a situation where coordinated Town actions make sense we will implement them.

Until that point - stop discussing plans.

So this one is clearly wrong if you consider the plan PV layed out. I will elaborate at bottom of post.
Now that I have time I'll try to come up with all the cases.

Still haven't read, but what about

Odd numbered players shoot the person above them.
Even numbered players barricade.

If the strongman is even, he dies.
If the strongman is odd, he kills and cuts the lynch pool in half.

I think this could lead to an extra mafia kill at night, but at the risk of getting them killed (if they are even and shoot anyway), but would narrow the lynch pool.

Anyways, something like that, but better.

Thoughts?

You are thinking too simplistically.

What does Player slot 1 do? There are 13 starting players so slot 1 is unaccounted for unless they should wrap around under your plan in which case they automatically kill player 13 who is also shooting above. So that's a pretty big hole. Or are you automatically Stranding them? If so that player being the Strongman means your plan is borked from the start as they can still shoot and are not accounted for in the Odds shoot up scenario.

Since we don't know the player distribution it is possible that that scum can be arranged to make your "cut the lynch pool in half" an exercise in WIFOM. Does the strongman surviving mean he's in Odds? Or does it mean his partner happens to be right below him in list and chose to not kill an additional Town to send everyone after the Odds?

Same with multiple deaths - what information do you take from it?

Too many holes in this plan that can be exploited by scum that Town don't have nearly enough information to properly parse what happened at Night.

So this has been improved since. I'll still answer the questions in this -
1. "player 1" doesn't exist in the current form. We just need the stranded player to not be the strongman.
2. The strongman survivings means he is one of the shooters, or we have a pair of scums (aka we chose really really wrong).
3. multiple deaths can only happen if we have multiple scum in the shooters. assuming the deaths would be not of teh shooters, our largest pool would be them then. The more kills the better, in fact.

VOTE: pisskop
His refusal to cooperate with literally anything is annoying the fuck out of me and by now I think it is clear that this is needed. not going to let this be a shooter.

Currently, I have three townreads:
{PV, kraska, moi}
and 2 scumreads:
{pisskop, realeo}.

The only thing that bothers me about Shos is, why he attacks me and pisskop for refusing for cooperation, but

townread MOI when MOI also refused for cooperation?

Why the double standard

Back later today when I have more time but this is a spot on observation.

VOTE: Shos

My guess as to why is that Pisskop was way more abrasive and drew more negative attention thus making him a safer scum read.

that guess is correct. I don't think anyone here didn't know that pisskop was vehemently against any cooperation, and I'm sure many didn't know about MoI's opinion

[shos]

Oh wow im really there
Apparantly my gfs parents invited us for lunch ao ill be back on comp only later possibly

[shos]

I dont see how me not getting a clear grip on mois thoughts is viewedas scummy
The important thing is what i did pay attention to, which brings pies scum

[shos]

Also pagetop lawl

Oh fuckong internet pedit._.

[shos]

That is a single line in a single post. Also, you are actually talking sense with actual thoughts behind what you say. That means I don't get a strict-balls-to-the-walls resistance there. In pissjops posts forexample it basically goes "OMFG YOU STUPID FUCK SHUT UP WOOT WE BO DO WUT U SAY LAWL WUT STFU". As such it is much easier to remember and classify motivation wise.

[shos]

I went through your iso, moi. I know what you wrote. You know Im not stupid. And if you know my meta, you can also vouch for my scumgame, lol

[shos]

Lol nosferatus posts are horrible
Are those his first this game btw?

I really thunk by now that at night there will be chaos and loads of townies will die.
If we go by PVs plan, all kills are either goong to hit scum or be from scum. A rateof 3 to 1 is all weneed. Just huntdown the SM eachnight nd we're set.

[shos]

Like, even if we choose randomly, the plan has 50% to be beneficial to town by having the SM dead
I dont see how you guys arent seeing this

[shos]

oh goodie, you've done math in high school!

want to calculate average of how many town deaths there are going to be if we all shoot as we wish?

[shos]

And that is without considering that scum won't all shoot the same person,obv.

Could you also run a simu of my plan for N1?

[shos]

1. I have to give you the credit for investing the time. That kinda lowers you on my scumlist, which means I'll probably shoot piss.
2. Scum death value is not only 0.38 - that is the SM's death value. the others can die as well if they don't cooperate with town and are in the being-shot people.

if you manage to put that in your calculations, super kudos. I'm pretty sure that will reverse your result.

to top that, add the fact that if town are able to scumhunt decently to actually shoot scum in the random plan, I am convinced that town can narrow scum in their pick of 6/7 being-shot+stranded.

[shos]

I love ot when people use "you vlaimed scum" as reason for scumreading me

[shos]

I'm sorry shos. I'm going to interject that.

2. Scum death value is not only 0.38 - that is the SM's death value. the others can die as well if they don't cooperate with town and are in the being-shot people.

The plan assumes everyone follows the plan. I'm mean, you say, go simulate my plan. Your plan is assuming that everyone follows the plan right? Second, your plan despite flawed, has quite a strong equilibrium if scum is part of the being-shot, the scum has no other option but to follow the equilibrium. The exception is if scum's shooter is the SM, then the scum can break free the equilibrium.

to top that, add the fact that if town are able to scumhunt decently to actually shoot scum in the random plan, I am convinced that town can narrow scum in their pick of 6/7 being-shot+stranded.

I can do something if accuracy = x%. However, from my experience learning poker, trying to guess the x% is a bull shit approach. How do you quantify such thing? And even if we meet the point of x% where your plan overpowered the random killing plan, how do we can use that x% to decide what to do? Ok, so when x = 68%, shos plan is better. How do we define that 68% accuracy is good enough? Do town have a 68% accuracy? How do you assure that?

this is the part where you start diverging because you're wrong? *thinks*

of course this entire calculation works assuming all town cooperate. This is the way to force scum's hand. If I can prove to you now that if town cooperate, it is better than if town just choose themselves, then this plan is officially better for town to follow than the default.

I don't expect any regards to those %s. They apply to both methods. What I do want is, (if possible and if you have the time of course) calculate the scum death in my idea. The 0.38 is only the SM, so if we're going to make the comparison, we have to calculate the others too. That should tilt the scales, in my opinion. Please do that if you can.

[shos]

PAGETOP!

To be honest, I am tempted to make you apologize for calling me "the biggest train wreck" to complete the final part of Donald Trump scheme ("I regret not always choosing the right word.") but meh.

lol @ this. Now you're much less a trainwreck, but back then, you definitely were pal

[shos]

Alright, I'm seeing that people have difficulty getting to the right conclusion from the same results, so as the certified mathematician here, I'll elaborate:

There are two "plans" as of now:
1. Everyone shoot whoever they wish, or don't shoot
2. 1 player is stranded, the other 12 are divided to 6s, where 1 pack of 6 shoot the other pack of 6, and the other pack of 6 blockades.

If we just randomize everything, plan 1 gives

• 1.7 scum death
  
• 8.4 town deaths

If we randomize the stranded and 6s, plan 2 gives

• 2.07 town deaths
  
• 0.38 Strongman deaths
  
• still unknown rest-of-scum deaths

to that, both plans can add the value of scumhunting, which would probably factor results the same so it doesn't matter much.

as for the ratio of town death/scum death, if we don't count the rest-of-scum deaths results favor the first plan, with 4.9 town/scum death over 5.4. But look at the absolute numbers.
on average, more than 8 townies die N1 with plan 1. If we get LUCKY, we get to a 3p lylo.

A titbit of bad luck would give us instant loss.

I need to get some things done, then if I manage I might make my own code to calculate the EV of the scum deaths in my plan and prove it is better.

[shos]

What can I discuss, really. We have a couple of groups - one is inactives who do shitall, one is a pack that just bargles against me with seemingly no reason (which is why I strongly think it is a scum lead group, by you). I apparantly "claimed scum" where I said we need to get the scumhunting going as it implies that I wasn't actually scumhunting or something.? like are you fucking serious you want me to somehow respond to these absurd accusations?

[shos]

Shos your plan does not allow for any non-Strongman deaths since they can barricade and thus prevent their own death if they are even in the be shot pool.



But please continue to mangle logical thought processes.

But that's playing to your wincon by deceiving Town, right?

that robs them of the ability to kill town, remember?
because by that plan town does not kill town, ever.

and hunting the strongman night by night is really easy this way.

[shos]

shos: i think there's enough content from Vedith for you to answer my question about them.

also, no one is advocating that we randomly shoot. you may as well start counting the odds of winning by randomly lynching in a regular game.
the 6 v 6 is actually 5 v 6. one of the shooters would be shooting the stranded player. also it won't work because it won't be followed, but that's besides the point.

pisskop, who is scum besides shos?

edit: Magna, shos is obviously gambling on the very high chance that two town players will coincidentally shoot the same mafioso.
could we ignore shos for the the moment? i'm more concerned with the players sitting back and either asking to be shot or asking who they'll be shooting.

I know, but the 'non random' factor applies to both plans, so the comparison is still equivalent.
and it is definitely 6v6. the stranded person is not shot.

and what the hell?(about your edit)

[shos]

fantastic, debate over.

lane's most recent post was entertaining to read. i'm still not sure if the frustration is genuine or not (and it could be genuine as mafia too, i suppose) but i enjoy having him in the game.

who else here thinks Vedith is scum?

is this the question you are talking about?
Vedith is a townread of mine.

[shos]

lane, sorry to burst your bubble but 'a waste of a day', if you read my posts, is game over. if we shoot who we wish, game is likely over after N1.

[shos]

kraska, anyone within {pisskop, lane, nosferatu} is shootable imo. I don't think there's any chance pisskop barricades, and I think he meant for it come this way because he cannot do that (SM) so I'm shooting him. You shoot Nos, if he's scum he'll have to barricade and lose a shot. Even without everyone's cooperation, if we choose scum correctly they have to cooperate or die.

[shos]

and yeah, I know it's hopeless to try to talk to them by now. My hope is to convince MoI, who actually is able to think.

[shos]

still unknown rest-of-scum deaths

Zero! Scum can't deviate if being shot!

if this is zero then town deaths are 100% going to be 1. correct me if I'm wrong?
get your math correct or don't use it at all.

[shos]

GDI, shos!!

Ok.. consider this scenario:

A Townie is stranded, 2 scum goons in the shooters, one of then assigned to shoot the SM.

Q: How do they go about it?

A: SM shoots someone who is barricading, but not their buddy target. One of the goons shoots the stranded, and the other shoots another shooter.

Result: 3 dead townies, we know 2 of the shooters are scum, and have absolutely no idea who the SM is. We may as well go with the one whose kill went through (bc for all that we know it COULD be that all 3 were in the shooters, and we're guaranteed 2 of them are).

Now let's built on it: we're down to 7-3 and we get a TOWNIE stranded (that's the one the SM framed on N1). We even reverse the plan, so shooters become targets, and targets become shooters. Surprise surprise, the SM is now assigned to shoot his buddy, so he shoots one of the shooters instead, and his buddy shoots another, while the 3rd one just barricades.

We're down to 5-3 already, and we don't even know if the SM is the stranded or in the N1 targets/N2 shooters at best case. We may as well start realizing he and his buddy have been assigned of targeting eachother, but hey.. we're already at MyLo and we have 5 people (shooters of N1) containing 2 scum and 3 people (remaining targets on N1) plus the stranded to find the SM.

Nice plan. PERFECT plan. Now you need to die!!

P.S. I COULD come up with more scenarios, but the fact that there's even one is enough for me to call your plan a total failure.

Did you miss the part where if we don't do that we get 8.5 town deaths on average?

It is all good and nice that in my plan you can spell out the worst case. I can do that too, very easy - I shoot piss, piss shoots me (possibly two town deaths) scum shoot three different people - 3 more town deaths, youtown shoot, dunno, someone who isnt scum - boom game over! Dont you fucking understand, this method is the only method that would prevent town from killing town, and possibly kill scum too if we are even half decent in scumhunting?

[shos]

Btw, scumhunting wise, I think it is really easy for scum to keep mindlessly bashing me for sticking to the plan. I am really sure that al50 and pisskop are scum because of that; their arguments are not constructive like realeo's, they just come and bash..
Im shooting pisskop.. Anyone willing to join in and kill al50?

Realeo, scum deaths is of no use if you kill all the townies. Remember we are "only" 10.

Also, can you complete the code to get the scum death value of my plan?

[shos]

Realeo. For fucks sake.
If scum barricade, they lose a shot.

That means that if both goons barricade, best case scenario for scum is 1 kill.
What do you not understand?

[shos]

About my plan. If scum barricade then clearly there arent going to be 2.7 town deaths, right?

Therefore, a full calculation has to happen, you cannot just assume scum death average at 0.38.

Just run the script, I dont understand why you evade.


@50:
I know that. Calculation has to happen equivalently. So-
1. Calculate all random, for both plans.
2. From there, bith plans can only improve when you add the fact that people do not shoot randomly. The unrandomness should affect both plans the same, which is why calculating just #1 could do.

I have another suggestion btw, but it is super risky so it can really only happen if we all cooperate. Ill lay it out from comp later.

[shos]

I don't care being stranded as long as someone shoots pisskop.
lane, do you not have any reads? I certainly have them, I don't see why you'd call it wasting a day if you do too.

Could you explain to me how someone who says " i don't care what you say " goes fine with you and someone who actually tries to get something protown done gets your vote?

All those who say I am wasting your time, that is bullshit. If you wanted to say anything regarding your scumreads, you'd do that. you are the one wasting your time. I have a discussion here with realeo and 50. you can scumhunt independently, but you don't. same goes for pisskop and possibly others. blaming me for that you don't do shit in this game is a fallacy.

I've found a hole in the other plan which makes it autolose so we can disregard that.

~~~

If we don't go by the original plan, I put my money on a N1 lose for town.

[shos]

Nosferatu, Realeo ran a computer simulation.

[shos]

RULES

3) You may vote for a No Lynch.

Ok, then I stand corrected!

So you want all 13 of us to carry guns in the night, right??

Now explain how that works with the plan you've been rooting for. A gentleman's agreement that the odd person will not shoot?

shouldn't that be a scumclaim as per your wording? "not understanding the seutp after 750 posts"?

[shos]

this game is frsutrating as fuck. nobody apart from kraska makes any sense at all. I'm shutting up.

[shos]

if you read the game you'd understand those statistics aren't done yet.

[shos]

Im not. I am still waiting fpr the last stats from realeo. He hasnt posted for a while and avoided that when he did last.

[shos]

Well I did use the part that is finished - about the random stuff.but no comparison is yet made.

[shos]

VOTE: no lynch/strand/whatdver

If you're going to misshoot town atleast don't deprive them of their shot
@shos shoot a50 with me...I don't think pisskop is scum here

This IS basically a scumclaim!! Someone doesn't even recognize how the SIMPLE game mechanics work after 700+ posts can't be of a town mindset.

RULES

3) You may vote for a No Lynch.

Ok, then I stand corrected!

So you want all 13 of us to carry guns in the night, right??

Now explain how that works with the plan you've been rooting for. A gentleman's agreement that the odd person will not shoot?

Can we start ignoring this one now

[shos]

About my plan. If scum barricade then clearly there arent going to be 2.7 town deaths, right?

Why would scum barricade if they are not being shot?

realeo. Ill put it really simple.
Assuming no plan, scum do not know if they are being shot.
Therefore they have two choices.

1. Shooting and not barricading, thus causing 2.07 kills on average
2. Barricading and not shooting,thus causing 1 town death but possibly surviving longer

You so you have [0.38+average goon deaths] vs 2.07 town deaths.
Do we understand each other now?

[shos]

Before a50 comes and screams nonsense for 3 more pages, I am clarifying my point.

1. Compare apples to apples
What realeo computes are the chances for each plan withOUT scumhunting. THEN, you can compare them.

2. Compare oranges to oranges
Then, when you have, say, plan A has X and Y town and scum deaths, and plan B has them X1 and Y1. Now, you can add the scumhunting factor.
Plan A (mine) gets added value in the choice of the 6 people being shot. If one of those is the SM, we have a scum death. If some are goons, we force them not to kill.
Plan B gets the added value that scum may simply be shot if the town chooses cprrectly.

The imprpvement in both cases should be about equal in my opinion, therefore computing the 'apples' part should do.


Pedit: yes, you are correct.

[shos]

That doesnt matter, 1-1 ratio is perfect and we repeat the process. The idea is to only hunt the SM night by night and force the goons, hopefully, to not kill town while we do that.

[shos]

Nah, 2 town deaths is just fine, too, even 3. We only need to get the SM; it is preferable to also get thr goons of course, but if we dont it is still good because next night we can choose better out of the shooters.

[shos]

My problem with the random killing part is that the worst case is not so unviable and it means game over immediately. In my plan worst case is reaaaally not that bad, we have more attempts to go and we have much valuable information ro use.

[shos]

In my plan you can survive even two consecutive nights of 3 town deaths and still roll well with good info [no strand and 4 nightshots need to kill 3 scum]

[shos]

Huh? Is this game white flag?

[shos]

I understand. I though you meant autowin.. For that you need at least 2 living townies though, because in 1v1 they both shoot each other and vedith noted in 799 of we all die scum win.

Realeo, are you able to run that sim for me? Cab you find the time?

[shos]

Realeo, are you able to run that sim for me? Cab you find the time?

Everybody has x% chance of barricading and 100-x% chance of shooting, right?

The naive approach put 100% chance of shooting.

How do I simulate x? The result will vary as x goes. That's why I said that guessing the x is a bull crap attempt.

this is not what I am asking.
I ask for all the options, assuming all townies cooperate.

If scum are in the being-shot, they can choose to shoot or barricade. If acum are in the shooters, they can shoot whoever they wish.

No %s come into the computation.

[shos]

Why not just run all 4 options?

[shos]

2 goons x 2 choices [shoot or barricade]

[shos]

I don't understand why x is needed
Run a loop over each mafioso

[shos]

i read it as it having a preference for stranding Nosferatu, but figuring that shos is more likely, and not having a problem with that.
your interpretation seems like a negative spin on something that could mean any number of things.

This.
in case I am scum with him, there is absolutely no reason for him to do that, since it doesn't help him make me not-stranded and also doesn't give him credit. So what exactly is that push about, moi?

[shos]

Lolno
What points do i get
I know your townplay. Your posts here do not even resemble anything like it. So here's the thing - I think you are scummy. A50 is more so but I dont know them so im pushing you right now. You looked like you are 101% sure I was scum. So what was the point of that question? What were you trying to find?

[shos]

pisskop, you're doing nothing to help progress the game the entire day. you can't just force the mod to prod everyone when literally everyone posted in the last 12 hours or so, lol.
The game is "stagnant" in your opinion because you don't make any arguments to progress your cause. like ever.

[shos]

Realeo, I majored in math and physics a few years ago, today I just stick with physics.

Again, logically. Do not try to help scum find the best solution. Just run all options.
I can try to do this myself in python in about 3 days [how long till DL?] if you really can't understand

I am scumreading moi but this is mainly on meta. His town play is beautiful; here it is really bullshit.

[shos]

I modded a game very recently where MOI played as town. He was not always right, I understand mistakes, but the thought process and the actual questioning, the line od thoughts that lead to reads etc, it was beautiful to watch. Here he basically does nothing and sheeps a wagon on me. His arguments are jot constructive. This is not even nearly his town play

[shos]

Kurois 817 is what youd expect from moi. A serious player.

[shos]

I gladly make this vote
VOTE: magna of illusion

But don't end the day too soon guys. I just need to find the time to play from a real fucking computer

[shos]

I modded a game very recently where MOI played as town

. He was not always right, I understand mistakes, but the thought process and the actual questioning, the line od thoughts that lead to reads etc, it was beautiful to watch. Here he basically does nothing and sheeps a wagon on me. His arguments are jot constructive. This is not even nearly his town play

Time to put up or shut up Shos.

The bolded above is an outright lie.

Link to the game you modded recently where I was Town.

But I know you can't. The only game you modded that I played in I was a Serial Killer.

So basically this is scum lying to inflate a "case" (and I use the term loosely).

oh please, you know what the point was. So you were SK, ok, who cares? Did you or did you not scumhunt like youtown would? I remember even commenting on how beautiful that was.

[shos]

Yes moi, i accuse you of not playing like you did as a SK. Because as an SK, you scumhunted. Here you dont.

[shos]

Re: 1 in your case
I am a mathematician. I know my math. Realeo still hasnt done the computation fully. 38% to catch the SM is very very good, considering that it prevents much town death and goves us loads of information for the day after. Ive done quite a bunch of explaining which you completely disregardedt he moment realeo posted the NOT FULL computation. You arenot reading and you are not scumhunting.

[shos]

Moi, ressonding to your post about my setup analysis:
0.38 chance to get the SM, yes.
2.07 average deaths of town, yes.
Only SM can die - no. Because if you assume more than 1 death, that means scum goons shoot and not barricade [because no townie can kill any townie]. So it is either 0.38 scum deaths along with 1 town death +town gains a lot of info OR 2.07 town deaths and [0.38+average goon deaths] scum deaths.

In either cases, it is not inferior to your noplan plan, even if you completely dismiss the informationtown gains by seeing the flips.
"Appeal to fear" is really legit when you compute an average town death of 8.5. After a single night.

[shos]

No it is not garbage, it is a nonnegligible chance which has to be considered when you make the computation.

[shos]

Meanwhile I return to my earlier point - on the game I modded, you spotted a scumslip and shot as you pleased, and next day you used it to lead a scumlynch (dom). So yes, you were scumhunting. I seenone of that here. What I see is a scum active lurker who suddenly pops up with loads of words in the MOMENT a titbit of traction is formed against him.

[shos]

Popping in to say im busy
Tomorrow python

[shos]

I quickly skimmed the last bunch of posts and I see more hot air being farted against me and...mucho bullshit from the more inactive players?

VOTE: nosferatu im parking my vote here for the while.

Moi, w
Could you repeat what I have 'avoided' when I was at work?

[shos]

I have literally just about a glance on the site so MOI, I'll answer you and leave
1. have you ever seen mescum avoid/lurking? evar?
2. vedith has been saying stuff that showed town intent, if I remember correctly. this townread is aged by now. He hasn't said anything bad that I remember, either.
3. I can't point exactly when; at first you looked actually conversational, even if you didn't actually say shit. Then later you became the less rude version of pisskop, so.

[shos]

Just letting you know I started pythoning
Will get this done tonight I hope instead of sleeping lol

[shos]

also can someone do us a favor and shoot shadowez? He's totally scum.

Are you saying this based on lurking alone?

no.

this is scum posting.
It looks like me joining the nosferatu wagon got him chills, so he decided to look like he's scumhunting. Opened up activity log, pick the lowest-poster, do PBPA. That is scumplay by the book.

[shos]

-pythoning-

[shos]

608 <- First mention of shadow as scum
934 <- shos joins nos wagon

you are literally the worst scum I've played with in awhile. Trying to act as if you influence my thoughts when they predate you by 6 days real life time.

It's like your mind is a void.

I'm gonna lol @ you for calling me worst scum lol
my scumgame is much superior to my towngame

either way, you've done nothing all game. The fact taht you spit 'shaddowz is scum' ages ago without any reasoning doesn't change the fact that you finally got off your sit to DO something only after you've been doublevoted.

[shos]

I am just really busy latelym ive literally been playing90% of this game from phone, which makes it impossible to program.

Ive constructed the classes and all, Ill tryto get this done in about 5 hours. Not that I think it mattersby now, but at least if we are waiting on DL to strand me, that will give me the abolity tobsay what I wosh befpre death

[shos]

Guys, this game is plurality. If nothing happens, I am lynched, no need to worry.

It is now 8pm, my time, 17 hours to DL. I will try and get the programming done today in about 5 hours probably.

[shos]

Pagetopppp lolz
I am currently undecided on which of the 3 I am shooting
Hopefully Ill be able to convince tou all

[shos]

[the three are pisskop, nosferatu, a50]

[shos]

Nope, a50 andnos are much much worse than you and most likely piss too

[shos]

I've found a better way to simulate my thing, I think, so working on that, results soon

[shos]

eh fuck it. my python shit doesn't seem to work. IDGAF.
If I am not stranded, I'll shoot one of nosferatu and almost50. done deal.

going to sleep.

[shos]

This is what happens when town shits itself and refuses hard to cooperate with each other D1 :/

[shos]

So uh
someone make my prediction and see what would have happened

[shos]

Yeah. It appears I got really unlucky with vedith shooting realeo.