Mini 1826: The Purge - Game Over

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD - I'll be V/LA from 5pm EDT today until Monday morning for usual family duties.

VOTE: Lane

Obv Mafia ... lynch at will

[MagnaofIllusion]

I want to vote Kuroi for posting a picture of a poor cat he's threatening to kill during the Purge if he isn't unvoted ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

I also want every player to acknowledge they have read the rules - specifically the rules surrounding Voting and plurality lynching at deadline ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

You expressed a desire to vote me and you might be scum. I don't have to do shit,

Ok.

VOTE: Kuroi

[MagnaofIllusion]

so um, to be the first who starts some serious discussion.


This whole 'stranded' thing...it basically means we don't actually have a lynch, right?

and if we run out of shots, we are just fucked and game's over?
like
if every townie targets the one above them

then we have it guaranteed the stranded player dies and the strongman dies
but we can't kill scum anymore so we instalose?

This is why I wanted everyone to read the rules.

Stranded only applies if we do not get a traditional majority lynch to happen.

Players have to either choose to be BP or choose to shoot each night so any coordinated plan is bound to be exploited by the Mafia.

Where do you get the concept of running out of shots from?

[MagnaofIllusion]

This only works if scum names aren't next to each other.

It also doesn't work because regardless of where scum are in the list they can plan with the combination of Strongman kill and both non-Strongman going Barracade to have a 2-2 Mafia to Town instant win ratio after Night 1.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from V/LA …

I don’t know what to make of Shos’ multiple gaffes of understanding. I can understand the occasional (even reading the rules twice I missed that normal lynches were still Strands) but his complete mis-read on his role PM reminds me of Kuroi’s repeated gaffes in Science UPick (which Shos was a part of) about no clearly understanding the set-up.

@Shos

– since no-one bit on your “I have Kuroi scum meta” what does that say to you in general and about Kuroi specifically?

I dislike Almost’s 135 as he states he doesn’t want to strand Peregrine (and explained further at 139) but then votes him in 185. There is a disconnect there and given Peregrine likely flaking means lurker hunting within the first 72 hours a game is open is suspect.

I’m also considering voting for Nosferatu. His explanation of why he isn’t voting the player with supposedly actively scummy play over someone who just “triggers” him more is suspect.

VOTE: Pisskop

Clinging onto “It’s RVS you can’t suspect me” in 72 is scummy enough on its own to warrant a serious vote but the rest of his post don’t dissuade me that Stranding him is a good play.

On policy I’d also like to strand kraska for repeated use of the phrase “tryhard” which is so inane it hurts my brain to have to read it.

--

If majority consolidates on a vigging pool of 2 or sth before each day ends then we're good I guess?

Not necessarily.

First the scum back-ups are free to shoot if they aren’t in the pool meaning scum can probably score multiple easy kills with too much in thread coordination. The only Town players who have freedom to coordinate are the Masons.

--

Statistically speaking, this implies that we only need to strand when mafia are 3 people, right?

I mean, if we strand a goon, mafia is down from 2 kills -> 1.

But with 2 mafiosos and 1 mafia, mafia kill will only stay as 1 kill. Stranding can't damage scum.

No. Stranding a goon only means that they can’t absolutely get two kills a Night. The other Goon choosing to shoot at someone committed to Vigging also means they net a kill.

Which reinforces that while no open communication is suboptimal for Town it is less suboptimal than laying out a plan openly that allows scum to exploit known Town Viggers.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ewww, moron godzilla cant logic.

I was pointing out that RVS doesnt end the moment 1 person makes a serious vote

I cant play a whoel game with somebody who cant make a real case and has to wedge it in between nit picks at other players. What a shitball tactic to mask his poor abilities.

Exactly the reaction I’d expect from scum … too virulent for a single vote and lots of dismissiveness.

Like my vote.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MoI:

I see you're reading skills are fine, but I'm afraid you're not paying attention.

I did say I don't want to vote PV because his lurking is NAI, and I was still NULL on him. Then I voted him to PRESSURE HIM TO SHOW UP & POST SOMETHING. I don't know how else to grab PV's attention. Hell, sometimes he doesn't even care when he's @L-2/L-1

I want the 3 low posters to provide more content for me to be able to see the whole picture.

Oh I'm paying attention. I just think your reasons don't make a lot of clear sense.

Policy voting for activity is even more useless this game given that Town can't actually kill anyone directly with voting. So your pressure amounts to even less than it normally does.

Question - have you ever seen Peregrine (or any other lurker) be voted to bring about performance and seen any significant change in their input?

Peregrine will probably be a killed at Night sooner rather than later if he lurks.

Do you not see any directly scummy behavior that warrants your support for Stranding them since that can possibly reduce scum's Night effectiveness?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Nah, theres no reason for 50 or really lane to be scum, and I actually was going to shoot you tonight, so its all good.

Wanna be suicide buddies?

@Shos

- since you are scum-reading Pisskop help strand him so you can kill him with impunity at night with no risk of barricade.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm not sure about Pere, but the answer to "any other lurker" is definitely YES. Some players don't even show up and start talking unless they're being voted and are forced into the spotlight.

Link me please.

[MagnaofIllusion]

God massive Preview Edit ... will catch all those after this ...

I've seen pisskop act exactly this way as town. I was reading him as scum hard based on his attitude.

Have you seen him do it as scum? Or are you suggesting he doesn’t?

You make it so they can't use their abilities, which is practically a free NK for anyone that wants to take it. It's not instant like a normal lynch, but if you're town you still don't want to be in that position. Especially with scum having multiple shots, the strongman doesn't have to waste it on the person that gets stranded. What makes you think that pressure doesn't mean anything here?

My experience says that people don’t form significant wagon Day 1 on “Hey, they have few posts” grounds for a wide variety of reasons some of which A50 has already stated about PV.

So no, I don’t think it is going to be very fruitful to throw a singleton vote at a player (especially a player who is known to underperform regardless of alignment) and expect any useful change to their play.

--

Also my vote on shadow didn't have anything to do with timeline. It was about me thinking shadow was being deceitful

About what specifically?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, thanks for the clarification.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I've not seen him do it as scum, so he may. I don't know if it's AI or not, but it's definitely not purely scum behavior.

Ok so you don’t think I should be voting him I take it?

Do you feel this way about every game, or is it different in this one?

This is how I roll. Pushing a lurker within the first 72 hours of a thread opening simply for lurking isn’t going to be fruitful.

No someone makes scummy plays and then lurks out pressure? Voting them for being scum is always useful.

What point are you trying to ascertain here Shadow?

[MagnaofIllusion]

its, as i alluded to before, bad. we cant guarentte anyone not in a hood to not hoodwink us.
the only solution that alloews eg coordination is 3+ groups agreeing to shoot 1 person. which is a condition id insist upon were we to.

No, this just guarantees that scum can choose to freelance outside their "designated" group and kill Town in addition to any Town who get incorrectly labelled as targets by a group. Because only 2 shots are required to overcome a barricade. Scum are going to be able to split themselves between groups I'd wager.

Worst case this sort of plan (assuming 1 Stranded Town player unable to act 4 groups of 3) results in Seven deaths Night 1, 3 of which are Mafia selected.

If none of the Mafia are selected by the four groups Town instantly loses overnight.

Best case of course is all three Mafia get chosen by the four groups. Either they all die overnight or we are able to figure out scum from who didn't die and who was assigned to make that happen.

Most likely it falls somewhere in the middle.

I'm pretty ambivalent to any plan whose success is driven by groups of Town players being able to come to a consensus on 4 targets who are likely scum and hoping that it just works out that scum are chosen over Town.

Not to mention this plan would likely result in the outing of the Masons if the groups choose one of both as their targets.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Stop discussing plans.

There is not going to be a plan.

Any publicly stated plan is easily co-optable by scum since they know the expected outcome and can deviate to their benefit. And no plan that can hold them accountable for deviating is likely to result Town immediately losing overnight.

The only Town players who should be making coordinated Night plans are the Masons at this stage.

Perhaps later in the game if there is a situation where coordinated Town actions make sense we will implement them.

Until that point - stop discussing plans.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And

any

plan that can hold them accountable for deviating is likely to result Town immediately losing overnight.

EBWOP bolded above

[MagnaofIllusion]

Still haven't read, but what about

Odd numbered players shoot the person above them.
Even numbered players barricade.

If the strongman is even, he dies.
If the strongman is odd, he kills and cuts the lynch pool in half.

I think this could lead to an extra mafia kill at night, but at the risk of getting them killed (if they are even and shoot anyway), but would narrow the lynch pool.

Anyways, something like that, but better.

Thoughts?

You are thinking too simplistically.

What does Player slot 1 do? There are 13 starting players so slot 1 is unaccounted for unless they should wrap around under your plan in which case they automatically kill player 13 who is also shooting above. So that's a pretty big hole. Or are you automatically Stranding them? If so that player being the Strongman means your plan is borked from the start as they can still shoot and are not accounted for in the Odds shoot up scenario.

Since we don't know the player distribution it is possible that that scum can be arranged to make your "cut the lynch pool in half" an exercise in WIFOM. Does the strongman surviving mean he's in Odds? Or does it mean his partner happens to be right below him in list and chose to not kill an additional Town to send everyone after the Odds?

Same with multiple deaths - what information do you take from it?

Too many holes in this plan that can be exploited by scum that Town don't have nearly enough information to properly parse what happened at Night.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@moi
if we arrange it so first player on the list(lane) shoots the 13th player(me)
then if no strongman dies or no kill breaks the chain, that would automatically point to lane being confstrongman no?

I have no idea why you think the 1st player shooting the 13th player means anything other than a likely extra Town death given the 13th is committed by the plan to shooting 12th player.

Sure the 13th slot could be scum. Odds are only 23% of that being the case. Do you think that 77% of the time that means an extra Town kill occurs under the plan which I have already pointed out other issue with is a good thing?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also since the only way Town actually kills the Mafia is to shoot them Peregrine's plan simply wittles down Town's numbers while leaving scum possibly intact.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also since the only way Town actually kills the Mafia is to shoot them Peregrine's plan simply wittles down Town's numbers while leaving scum possibly intact.

How?

Read the rules. There is no traditional lynching.

a town death at the expense of auto-locating strongman
1 for 1

also @pere if we go through with your plan i think it's better not to strand anyone

His plan doesn't auto-locate the strongman and if you think so you probably should re-adjust your thinking.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yeah very busy at work but don't assume that I'm following any pre-set plan you have devised as I've already stated my opinion on the merits of it - none.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: pisskop
His refusal to cooperate with literally anything is annoying the fuck out of me and by now I think it is clear that this is needed. not going to let this be a shooter.

Currently, I have three townreads:
{PV, kraska, moi}
and 2 scumreads:
{pisskop, realeo}.

The only thing that bothers me about Shos is, why he attacks me and pisskop for refusing for cooperation, but

townread MOI when MOI also refused for cooperation?

Why the double standard

Back later today when I have more time but this is a spot on observation.

VOTE: Shos

My guess as to why is that Pisskop was way more abrasive and drew more negative attention thus making him a safer scum read.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok so work craziness has subsided a bit so I can go through what I’ve only been able to gloss over.

Keep in mind – I’m not bothering with any “Nightplan posts” as I’ve already explained and those who agree with my stance understand why and those who don’t aren’t going to change their mind at this point. There is not any plan that can’t be co-opted by scum to their advantage. I can’t count the number of times Town end up losing games based on “well thought out plans” going sideways. I can point to examples if need be.

Peregrine’s content that several people have noted has one important facet – no indications of actually trying to find players who are scummy. 100% set-up and set-up argument related. It’s a great way to put out lots of words yet do nothing to actually find scum. Aside from Shos he would be my second strand choice. 524 exemplifies this – he convienently doesn’t even blink at the fact that Shos has amassed a significant wagon.

Also I’m pretty confident that Shos is scum. The fact that he’s not paying attention to my posts indicates he isn’t interested in sorting me. But he knows first-hand from Mod experience that I can be dangerous if I’m not Town. And yet there was no indication that what he considers scum-behavior in Pisskop that I am also doing is considered scum behavior in me. If anything if he was Town and thought fighting against his plan was scummy he should be zeroed in on me absolutely first. Yet 556 still indicates that he doesn’t scum-read me.

--

anyone got a tldr on the plans we've got floatin around right about now?

Also a good chance for scum …

--

So what if it was mentioned twice? I don't read posts, I just skim thru them...it's the reason why I'm known for getting facts hilariously wrong across all games. I really did miss it and it skewed with my perception of everything you were saying. But whatever. if we're not sticking to the plan then shoot me

That’s a convenient excuse for scummy behavior you are floating for yourself – you always skim and don’t read and can’t be held accountable for not reading ..

Also known as not playing to your Wincon as Town to further your scum game ..

Which I hate with the fiery passion of a thousand suns …

--

And pisskop - once again - our plan, even if rabdom - without D1 scumhunting - only allows scum 1.5 kills. If we do scumhunt, scum will have AT BEST 1 kill.

There are multiple ways that your plan can result in 3 deaths and you keep insisting that a max of 2 Town deaths are possible. With only a possibility of 1 Mafia kill and perhaps zero. If you were so spot on with your hypotheticals you would understand that. Given that you are presenting that you don’t I’m very happy to have you stranded as I think you are scum and it gives us a 2/3 chance you will be unable to shoot overnight and 100% chance you are a sitting duck.

2. The strongman survivings means he is one of the shooters, or we have a pair of scums (aka we chose really really wrong).

Or he was Stranded since as I understand it the “new plan” involves the stranded player not being shot. So a Strongman surviving means realistically he can be anywhere under this revised plan and Town is not closer to sorting who is scum via plan mechanics at the cost of at least 1, if not more, Town dead.

Not Town thinking.

that guess is correct. I don't think anyone here didn't know that pisskop was vehemently against any cooperation, and I'm sure many didn't know about MoI's opinion

Yeah, except disagreeing with the plan isn’t a scum-tell and your peddling of it as it being one is scummy.

--

Now, can someone (Realeo) go back and see what players mentioned that the plan would fail if scum were next to each other in the list?

1. Why can’t you do that?
2. What is the significance to alignment of that?

I’m one of the many players who noted that possibility BTW.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I will defend pereV in this case. I think he did a good job. True, he actively make setup spec, but he also actively destroying setup spec (ie. the dice roll), so I put him at "town with good intention".

Again why?

It's something scum can quite easily do. You may disagree about whether plan establishment is good or bad (it's clearly bad) but it isn't out of character at all for scum to present a plan as a means of presenting as Town.

What do you think of his lack of scum-hunting?

And before you respond - making plans is not scum-hunting.

[MagnaofIllusion]

As for your own vote "reason" (473), Realeo listed THE ONLY THING that bothers him was X, but it was enough for you to find shos scummy?

I've written pretty clearly why Shos's finding of Pisskop's behavior to be scum indicative but my similar behavior to be not is suspect, especially given what I know he knows of my play.

Do you not find that inconsistency scummy?

[MagnaofIllusion]

If he did, he will probably just shoot you, no?

That is a scummy interpretation. Why should he not push to strand me if he thought I was scum?

[MagnaofIllusion]

2. Because randomly, in my mind, when I glance at the list, I would see names in green with red instersparced. I wouldn't stick 2 red names together.
But, if your actually looking at the list and know who the red names are, maybe they are together.

Um again this makes no sense. Unless you have reason to believe that Persival didn't randomly assign alignments in this set-up. Do you have reason to believe so Pere?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I dont see how me not getting a clear grip on mois thoughts is viewedas scummy
The important thing is what i did pay attention to, which brings pies scum

How did you not get them? I have been explicit in my thoughts about any public plan being co-optable and thus not good for Town.

It's not like I haven't been clear. Also, is this not clear to you?

Yeah very busy at work but don't assume that I'm following any pre-set plan you have devised as I've already stated my opinion on the merits of it - none.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also pagetop lawl

Oh fuckong internet pedit._.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I went through your iso, moi. I know what you wrote. You know Im not stupid. And if you know my meta, you can also vouch for my scumgame, lol

Where have I ever referenced your meta Shos? I mean I expect based on you Modding a game where I was a Serial Killer and made it to LYLO with 1 Town and the other Serial Killer that you should know I can seem absolutely reasonable as not-Town. Reasonable enough to get multiple Town players mislynched after claiming Survivor in a game where it was known the Mafia was dead after Day 2. But we have exactly 1 game in common I can recall of the top of my head and in that game you were Town and mislynched Day 1.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Lets just strand nosferatu bc shos is town
VOTE: nosferatu

If Shos is Town I want this dead ASAP.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yeah bc it's not obvious as hell that shos is town from all the pages following when Pere first suggested his plan

The vote counts and general opinions seem to find Shos the least Town player, at the moment, and disagree with your assessment.

So do you think scum are driving a wagon on Shos who you are calling obv-Town?
If so why aren't you working to parse who is scum on that wagon?
If not why has he garnered so many votes?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Read 569.

I did. My assessment is "Fluff that has no impact on how alignments were distributed"

Elegence isn't a consideration in randomizing alignments. You've been around long enough to know this but keep posting fluff like that.

And yet you persist.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Others have shown why those plans are co-optable, because they don't want it to be.

You didn't bother explaining, so it sounds like you dismissed it out of hand because you didn't want ANY plan.

See the difference?

Because for every scenario you can devise I can find a way that scum could co-opt it. I'm not going to spend all my time arguing hypotheticals when we have scum to find.

I can point you to MANY, MANY cases of scum in games having more information than Town (which is, by nature, the game) and using said knowledge to 'break' plans that were supposedly game-over for scum.

And any plan presented in this game is going to be no different.

[MagnaofIllusion]

When many are disagreeing to a plan that breaks the setup, I can hardly tell who is scum anymore

Mainly because there hasn't been a plan shown that breaks this set-up for certain. All the plans that supposedly do rest on unknown factors (scum not being next to each other in the playerlist, the scum Strongman not being stranded Night 1) that can be wrong and destroy any conclusions made.

But you are the player who supposedly doesn't read posts and skims them right? So how do you know that a plan that breaks the set-up has been presented.

[MagnaofIllusion]

It's an open setup. The only knowledge scum has is who they are.

Your point?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Nosferatu is obvious scum

Where's your case for why?

I'm curious.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Your using this as a reason not to plan or to try and plan, when in this game of open setup there is no "more information" to use to break any plan.

The only more information would be knowing the strongman was stranded and knowing scum names are located adjacent to one another on the list.

So what? The fact that there is no more information means that if your plan is able to be thwarted ... either by scum co-opting it or by factors that can't be predicted (player distribution) ... then using it is not positive to Town.

Again - I've yet to see a plan that isn't co-optable and provides solid information after Night 1.

If you want to present one by all means go ahead. But I don't expect to see on because no such plan exists.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Keep in mind I'm all for plans that benefits Town. I can provide links to the several games in which I devised plans that aided Town (Cyclical Experiments by kunkstar and one whose name escapes me).

I've yet to see a plan this game that does so. Thus my stance will not change until that occurs.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from now til Tuesaday morning.

Got busy late yesterday and didn’t get to post this …

oh goodie, you've done math in high school!

want to calculate average of how many town deaths there are going to be if we all shoot as we wish?

And this and the subsequent exchange with Releo is another tickmark in the Shos as scum column.

Shos has repeatedly said that his plan is math. Yet when Releo runs some math and comes up with results that say “Shos plan is bad” Shos doesn’t even dispute the manner or methodology of Releo’s plan.

Which leads to the conclusion that he didn’t run the math himself in the first place.

Hard for me to believe Town touting their plan as math based didn’t actually check the math themselves.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Shos your plan does not allow for any non-Strongman deaths since they can barricade and thus prevent their own death if they are even in the be shot pool.



But please continue to mangle logical thought processes.

But that's playing to your wincon by deceiving Town, right?

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: no lynch/strand/whatdver
If you're going to misshoot town atleast don't deprive them of their shot
@shos shoot a50 with me...I don't think pisskop is scum here

This should be killed right after Shos ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

do u have anything useful to add to the game ?

I've added plenty of useful content to the game. That you choose to ignore it over "Lulz I gotz a breakinz plans youze guyz" fluff isn't my problem but yours.

But the fact that you are so strident that Shos has to be Town when you've implicitily claimed Not-Masons with him tells me you might well be White-Knighting Shos.

Heck, you may be a better shot at Night than Shos anyway given the lack of scum-hunting found in your ISO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

i have no qualms with stranding so long as it's someone who is actually scummy

You seem to be misunderstanding that your personal perception is not necessarily reality. Perhaps you should work on that.

Frankly if Shos isn't stranded (and he is a very good choice IMO) then either kraska or Peregrine should be.

Every time I see kraska demand someone explain a Town read on someone else I get the sense I'm witnessing bumbling Mason fishing on display. Add to that her predilection for confusing disagreeing with a flawed plan to be a scum tell and you have my second choice for scum.

Peregrine has predictably disappeared again. I mean, I have more content while on VLA than he does when not.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'll go with my gut in and VOTE: Nosferatu.
With four days left, I'm sure Shos will be stranded, and I'm OK with his being stranded, for what it's worth.

So you are so OK with him being stranded you decide to vote elsewhere so the tie breaking process can do the dirty work instead of you actively voting for Shos?

[MagnaofIllusion]

This.
in case I am scum with him, there is absolutely no reason for him to do that, since it doesn't help him make me not-stranded and also doesn't give him credit. So what exactly is that push about, moi?

I'm quite curious when it happened that having multiple lines of inquiry on possible scum suspects was a bad thing. When did that happen Shos?

Also when did it become paramount to only look at players as absolute teammates pre-flip Shos?

This whole question reads as "Aha, I think I can make points with this". Because if you are Town as you have claimed I would expect you'd like me to be focusing on other suspects. That might lead to me re-assessing my read on you perhaps. Instead you are immediately looking to suggest that it makes no sense for you to be partners when searching for scum certainly isn't limited to partner hunting.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I modded a game very recently where MOI played as town

. He was not always right, I understand mistakes, but the thought process and the actual questioning, the line od thoughts that lead to reads etc, it was beautiful to watch. Here he basically does nothing and sheeps a wagon on me. His arguments are jot constructive. This is not even nearly his town play

Time to put up or shut up Shos.

The bolded above is an outright lie.

Link to the game you modded recently where I was Town.

But I know you can't. The only game you modded that I played in I was a Serial Killer.

So basically this is scum lying to inflate a "case" (and I use the term loosely).

[MagnaofIllusion]

ive held it all game.

pushes too hard, cases too weak

[MagnaofIllusion]

oh please, you know what the point was. So you were SK, ok, who cares? Did you or did you not scumhunt like youtown would? I remember even commenting on how beautiful that was.

So you are saying that my play here doesn't resemble a game where I was a Serial Killer and that's the reasoning for your scum-read?

Yup, that's scum justification right there.

And my play being beautiful had to do with me manipulating Town into multiple mislynches given that the Mafia was dead after Day 2. Pretending otherwise is just bad Sho.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Illusion: i feel as though i've said this before, but attacking 'lies' and calling that scum is an easy thing to do (for mafia). why wouldn't you look for the truth of the statement, and instead call it scum outright lying? that's a terrible lie to make as scum, when it's so easily proven false.

edit: hm, ok, now i feel like i don't know enough about the situation.

It is an outright lie. Here's my question to you - what Town motivation does Shos have to directly lie about that in his attempt to present my game here as "Not Town" when in the game he's supposedly using for his basis I wasn't Town but a Serial Killer?

Your takeaway seems pretty shallow to me.

Here's the link to the game in question -

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=66039

Review for yourself.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So here’s the summary of the case on Shos since players like Kraska pretend to be unable to follow it –

1. Adherence to a plan that benefits the Mafia –

Releo has shown the math that Shos does not dispute – Town 100% randomly all firing with zero percent Barricading at Night statistically nets a better net benefit to Town than his 6 for 6 plan. He’s made some fluffery posts about “Why aren’t you running some scenarios where Town barricades at some rate” but that detracts from the point – Town actually using scum-hunting and making informed decisions about Firing versus Barricading is going to do better than 100% pure statistical randomness in everyone firing. Probably significantly so.

Also he carefully avoids the fact that his plan only nets the Strongman on average 37% of the time Night 1 and has no ability to catch the other scum but always nets 1-3 Town deaths a Night.

Town has no reason to continue to push a plan that statistically is worse for Town than pure, random chance.

2. Cognitive Dissonance -

I’ll just highlight these again – 473 and 561. Back at that point Shos had a scum read on Pisskop for “fighting the plan” and yet had a Town read on me while I was taking the same stance. In fact in 561 you can see me directly mention his GTA2 game where I was the Serial Killer and almost won. There is no consistency to Shos’s stances when it comes to calling players scum for behaviors. He tried to hem and haw away his “Oh, it was the way that Pisskop was doing it” as justification but that makes little sense.

Now note that he’s effectively flip-flopped positions given he is “scum reading me” and making no comment about Pisskop being scum. I’m guessing mostly because I was the one pushing him most strongly since his original “MoI is Town” stance.

[MagnaofIllusion]

i just think it's more likely that shos was mistaken/calling your scumhunting as a Serial Killer town play if you were hunting mafia. when i see something called an 'outright lie', i've seen town who are making a mistake or drawing false equivalences or who have a different opinion. a lot of times, what is a 'truth' or a 'lie' is based only on opinion.

Um, whut? I said - the Mafia was dead by the end of Day 2. Since you are too lazy to read the game here is the summary.

Day 1 - Town lynches Mafia Godfather role and I was not on the wagon at all.
Day 2 - I push a lynch on the remaining Mafia as a means to save myself from being lynched.
Days 3-4 - I push mislynches on Town.
Day 5 - LYLO where I got lynched and the other Serial Killer won.

So it is not accurate at all to say my scum-hunting there is any approximation of how he should be judging whether my play here is "Town".

I'm not sure what to make of your attempt to present it as some sort of misunderstanding as opposed to scummy fabrication.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes moi, i accuse you of not playing like you did as a SK. Because as an SK, you scumhunted. Here you dont.

Another misrep.

I've done plenty of scum-hunting. You for example. You just don't like it so attempt to portray it as non-existent.

And what point of your game is this supposedly super-Townie scum-hunting you are claiming I did? Day 1 where I pushed mislynch attempts on Ranger and Blackstar? Day 3-4 where I mislynched Townies?

Or are you resting the whole entirety of your stance on Day 2 where I lynched the last Mafia as a survival tactic as the super-Townie scum-hunting I did there? Because you know I would rather have left the Mafia alive Day 2 if I could have to help thin Town numbers that much quicker.

All in all this "You were so Townie that game" is a pile of scum flailing from you Shos.

You got caught with your hand in the cookie jar bud. Sorry but that happens ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Re: 1 in your case
I am a mathematician. I know my math. Realeo still hasnt done the computation fully. 38% to catch the SM is very very good, considering that it prevents much town death and goves us loads of information for the day after. Ive done quite a bunch of explaining which you completely disregardedt he moment realeo posted the NOT FULL computation. You arenot reading and you are not scumhunting.

What full computation are you expecting? You keep moving the goalposts. There's not further computation needed. Full randomness on the part of Town yields a better net result than your plan. No more computation is needed as that proves your plan isn't helpful statistically. Further computations aren't necessary when you can't devise a plan that does better than pure Town randomness.

Unless you want to attack that his math in reaching those figures is incorrect the case is closed. But you haven't done that yet so I assume you agree with his computation.

You claim that 38% is a good chance to catch the Strongman. Yet that mans 62% of the time Night 1 does not catch the Strongman and yields minimum 1 and maximum 3 dead Townies. Which is a terrible result given your plan, if the Strongman isn't dead after Night 1, gives us no leads on where to look for the Strongman or his partners.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, so going back to things besides that happened this weekend –

I note Kraska has on several occasions avoided explaining reads. She offered a Not Chara as scum read and when questioned by multiple players had this to respond with – 698. There is no reasoning there. Frankly given the amount of times she has accused me of lack of content and fluff her inability to justify why she his scum-reading someone trips my scumdar . Especially when she avoids detailing reads herself (on Not Chara as scum) but expects others to explain their own reads (see 725). And then at 741 she just drops the read on Not Chara.


--

edit: Magna, shos is obviously gambling on the very high chance that two town players will coincidentally shoot the same mafioso.
could we ignore shos for the the moment? i'm more concerned with the players sitting back and either asking to be shot or asking who they'll be shooting.

So why are you concerned about players asking to be shot? Do you think there is any Pro-Scum motivation in doing so?

Also Not Chara I’m interested in your read on Kraska given the distaste you apparently have for posts that call people scummy that don’t provide reasons. I direct you to 668 as a prime example. Why no questions / attacks on kraska for posts like that?

--

Vedith is a townread of mine.

@Shos

– why don’t you elaborate on the reasons for said Town read. I’d be very interest in posts that you thought were direct examples of Town play.

Also, I’d like you to specify exactly when your scum read on me actually developed. Because as of 673 and 674 you didn’t include me in your “Should be shot” list and were hoping to “convince” me of your plan. Those posts don’t show a scum read of me at all. And as of 715 again no mention that I should be shot (you do actively mention pisskop again).

Alright, I'm seeing that people have difficulty getting to the right conclusion from the same results, so as the certified mathematician here, I'll elaborate:

There are two "plans" as of now:
1. Everyone shoot whoever they wish, or don't shoot
2. 1 player is stranded, the other 12 are divided to 6s, where 1 pack of 6 shoot the other pack of 6, and the other pack of 6 blockades.

If we just randomize everything, plan 1 gives

• 1.7 scum death
  
• 8.4 town deaths

If we randomize the stranded and 6s, plan 2 gives

• 2.07 town deaths
  
• 0.38 Strongman deaths
  
• still unknown rest-of-scum deaths

to that, both plans can add the value of scumhunting, which would probably factor results the same so it doesn't matter much.

as for the ratio of town death/scum death, if we don't count the rest-of-scum deaths results favor the first plan, with 4.9 town/scum death over 5.4. But look at the absolute numbers.
on average, more than 8 townies die N1 with plan 1. If we get LUCKY, we get to a 3p lylo.

A titbit of bad luck would give us instant loss.

I need to get some things done, then if I manage I might make my own code to calculate the EV of the scum deaths in my plan and prove it is better.

So I quoted this post to point out two things I don’t want lost in the shuffle –

1. The bolded Appeal to Fear (oh god it could be over Night 1) doesn’t represent any reality of the game state. Releo’s “All Town shoots randomly” isn’t a plan. It’s simply a calculation to show that Town just each privately using a random number generator will, on average, produce superior results to Shos’s plan. Town isn’t all going to shoot randomly. So any “Oh god it could be over N1” isn’t relevant to the game-state and is just an Appeal to Fear in an attempt to get his Mafia-friendly plan to appear viable.

2. I’ve stated this many times but it bears repeating – Shos keeps mentioning the “still unknown rest-of-scum deaths” whenever he’s attacking the figures which doesn’t apply under his plan. The only scum who can die in the “Line up 6 players to each individually shoot 6 other players” plan is the Strongman. And only if he isn’t Stranded (this player is not shot under Shos’s plan) or a Shooter. Any other scum in the “Going to be Shot” pool can just barricade themselves and thus not die. So it is a fallacy to say that the 0.38 scum dead under his plan can rise.

3. Note that he never followed through on his own EV calculation.

[MagnaofIllusion]

the string of posts in my iso , starting with me asking chara to explain their reads on vedith and nos, and ending with this post ^ should make it clear why i found notchara's early reads dubious, moi, and why i dropped my read on them

Why, if reading ISO should be the standard for determining why reads exist, did you ask Not Chara to explain reads instead of looking through her ISO yourself?

[MagnaofIllusion]

bc they didnt explain them before i asked

Nah. If you had explained your reads better people wouldn't have asked you to explain them. So that explanation doesn't pass muster.

[MagnaofIllusion]

what are you even talking about...
you asked me why i thought nc was scum and why i later dropped the read
i said i asked them to explain the reads i found dubious
and then didnt feel they were scum anymore

like...what's your issue with any of this

Nope you are attempting to shortcut the issue. I'll point you towards this post again ...

I note Kraska has on several occasions avoided explaining reads. She offered a Not Chara as scum read and when questioned by multiple players had this to respond with – 698. There is no reasoning there. Frankly given the amount of times she has accused me of lack of content and fluff her inability to justify why she his scum-reading someone trips my scumdar . Especially when she avoids detailing reads herself (on Not Chara as scum) but expects others to explain their own reads (see 725). And then at 741 she just drops the read on Not Chara.

Way back around 698 people asked you about your claimed Not Chara read. You ignored all those requests as I pointed out above. You giving a fluff "I found her early reads dubious" on this page doesn't explain away why you ignored multiple requests back then.

My issue with the way you is that I think you aren't actually scum-hunting but fabricating fluff reads.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Only SM can die - no. Because if you assume more than 1 death, that means scum goons shoot and not barricade [because no townie can kill any townie]. So it is either 0.38 scum deaths along with 1 town death +town gains a lot of info OR 2.07 town deaths and [0.38+average goon deaths] scum deaths.

Nope. The obvious fault in the logic you are trying to show here is assuming the Goons are not picked in the shooters.

That's not a given at all.

Thus your conclusion is garbage out because of the garbage in.

Care to try again?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Meanwhile I return to my earlier point - on the game I modded, you spotted a scumslip and shot as you pleased, and next day you used it to lead a scumlynch (dom). So yes, you were scumhunting. I seenone of that here. What I see is a scum active lurker who suddenly pops up with loads of words in the MOMENT a titbit of traction is formed against him.

Lol. Active lurker? That's funny Shos.

[MagnaofIllusion]

No it is not garbage, it is a nonnegligible chance which has to be considered when you make the computation.

See it is posts like this that make me reasonably confident you are scum. Because you are desperately clinging to your plan despite being shown that statistically it is more beneficial on average for Town to just shoot randomly than to follow your plan.

There is NO scenario under the "Everyone Follows Shos' Strand plus 6 individually shoot a designated Barricader" under which any scum other than the strongman dies. The only way you can get non-Strongman deaths is for players to defect from your plan which can't happen in analyzing your plan. And if you are suggesting that should happen then why should your plan be followed in the first place if you are advocating that people can freelance? So the fact that you keep saying (Strongman + Projected other Scum Deaths) is scummy since you should know that any other scum deaths can't happen under your plan.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'd also like everyone to notice Shos dodging my questions about

1. Explaining his Vedith read.
2. Explaining when he started "scum reading" me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Almost50 - more of a gut vibe warring with a town vibe
Vedith - More of that gut
MagnaofIllusion - Neagtive attitude towards any night plans
Nosferatu- Gutty gut gut gut

PLus, I feel like everyone else is more townie.

So you have no actual things you can point to other than 'gut' for three of your scum reads and your reasoning for me is "Negative attitude to Night plans" which isn't a scum-tell but exercising common sense given the quality of the plans?

Also - since pisskop and Lane are against Night plans also I'm struggling to see how this list would be formed by a Town thought process.

[MagnaofIllusion]

pisskop might be scum, but his posting style always rubs me the wrong way. He'll be shot at some point, but if he is town, I expect he'll shoot at players he finds scummy, so don't really see the need to deprive him of that.

Classic fence-sitting example - maybe he's scum but his playstyle is grating so I'm not going to scum read him.

Also that seems to conflict with your statement that "everyone else looks more Town".

The second portion of this applies to every players - do you not expect any Town to eventually take shots at their scum-reads?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Even if the bolded benefits town more, doesn't it also do more to hide the scum? There's no accountability for how many shots were fired at any given person, and if no scum are hit (or were barricaded), we're in an even worse position for N2, no?

Again – what point are you trying to make here? I’m not advocating that Town all use RNG and all automatically shoot Night 1. That would be stupid. I’m pointing out that his plan statistically on average is worse than that … so there is no point following it.

There really isn’t going to be accountability for shots fired under and plan given that the set-up doesn’t have any way to confirm shots or who fired at who anyway.

Who is scummy Shaddowez?

--

Moi, w
Could you repeat what I have 'avoided' when I was at work?

You had time to respond to some of my other posts. Why do you think I should have a different conclusion again?

Here it is front and center for you.

@Shos – why don’t you elaborate on the reasons for said Town read. I’d be very interest in posts that you thought were direct examples of Town play.

Also, I’d like you to specify exactly when your scum read on me actually developed. Because as of 673 and 674 you didn’t include me in your “Should be shot” list and were hoping to “convince” me of your plan. Those posts don’t show a scum read of me at all. And as of 715 again no mention that I should be shot (you do actively mention pisskop again).

[MagnaofIllusion]

Actually Nos makes a solid point – it makes no sense for Nos to be “scared” of Shos vote on him as it was only the second vote and deadline is only about 20 hours away. Further a case of Shos looking for things he can think he can portray as scummy as opposed to honestly scum-hunting.

--

I have literally just about a glance on the site so MOI, I'll answer you and leave
1. have you ever seen mescum avoid/lurking? evar?
2. vedith has been saying stuff that showed town intent, if I remember correctly. this townread is aged by now. He hasn't said anything bad that I remember, either.
3. I can't point exactly when; at first you looked actually conversational, even if you didn't actually say shit. Then later you became the less rude version of pisskop, so.

1. I’ve never seen Shos-scum ever to my recollection. Why do you keep repeating it as if your self-claimed superior scum-play is a reason to Town-read your scummy play here?

2. Link to two to three posts where you think he was showing Town intent. Again … generic platitudes don’t cut the mustard.

3. This is why you are scum … you can’t actually justify your read in any meaningful way.

Just letting you know I started pythoning
Will get this done tonight I hope instead of sleeping lol

Very curious how long this “pythoning” takes given deadline is nigh and if you were honestly wanting to attack Releo’s similuations as flawed you would have done this days ago.

--

I don't have any bias against you, Nosferatu. I just express my opinion.

Could you point me to something specific? I've modded a game he's been in before and have played with him, and his play isn't to different from his town play to me.

So Kuroi – since you are issuing a Shad not-scum read on meta what do you say to the fact that Nos’s Town game looks just like this as well?

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=65953
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=66557

[MagnaofIllusion]

not voting shos or pere
if we cant consolidate on an alternative i'd rather we no strand
otherwise i'll vote nos

I'm not voting Nos and certainly not supporting "No Strand".

[MagnaofIllusion]

[the three are pisskop, nosferatu, a50]

Wow amazing that I'm not in this list ... even thought I'm totes scum to Shos.

Is that because your team plans to use the Strongman on me tonight?

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from 5pm EDT today until Monday morning for normal weekend duties.

Not saying with any certainty what I am doing tonight. Maybe I’ll shoot one of my suspects, maybe I’ll Barricade.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Peregrine and Shaddow - I'd be very interested in hearing what you did last Night.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I barricaded.

Seems like an interesting choice given you went out of your way to not really scum-hunt and stated explicitly "You vote at Night".

[MagnaofIllusion]

And actually given this is LYLO I think Mason claiming should happen ASAP.

With 7 alive it reduces the viable strand options for every non-Town Mason left to 4 players, 3 of which have to be Mafia. It also narrows down the number of viable targets for non-Mason Town players to shoot at night. It is paramount we kill Mafia tonight and I'd not like for Town to misfire on Masons when scum already has a 50/50 shot of killing at least one of them with the Strongman anyway.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And yours? You keep talking about people giving their 3. Seems like youd have yours out there already, what are you waiting for?

This is a good point.

I'm not posting anything on Night actions until Shaddow posts his ... that should have been understood by the initial question to both Pere and Shaddow.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think masons claiming early is a terrible idea. If they don't need to claim (ie one of them is going to be stranded), that's pretty much autodeath for both toNight unless one of the non-strongman mafia are stranded.

Actually no that's wrong. Masons claiming means not a single Town player mis-fires at them and thus scum have to worry about Barricading otherwise there is a chance they all drop in 1 Night (4 possible Town shots with zero fired at the Masons means there are 5 targets and 3 of them are scum).

And you seem to be forgetting this is LYLO so with the scum Strongman Town automatically loses if Town doesn't shoot tonight. So whether they survive tonight is irrelevant as scum killing just one Townie ends the game. There is no point in them hiding.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Since Shaddow has answered I can now -

I shot Shaddow.

Still waiting for Peregrine to claim his suspects ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Top three scum reads? Frankly my Town reads all died last Night (Almost / Not Chara / Nos). So I only get to choose 3? Frankly I could probably justify pretty much anyone but Realeo if I had to.

Gun to my head? Peregrine / Shaddow / Lane

--

P-Edit: I didn't say they shouldn't claim at all, I said they shouldn't claim early. Scum have to spread themselves thinner trying to make up reasons for 4 town to try and strand rather than 2.

This looks pretty LAMISTy posting to me. Scum manufacturing reasons to scum read Town is not so inherently difficult that it is worth dragging out the Masons claiming.

The more time to narrow down exactly on who is not Masons and start parsing who is likely scum in that group the better.

So, I'm confused as to why you had to wait for me to answer for this. You shooting me and me not dying guarantees I'm not the Strongman, even if I was scum. And if I were scum, what sense would it make for me to lie about barricading?

It was worth a shot – I’ve seen scum screw things up trying to outthink the room before.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Summary of Scum Reads (which Peregrine hasn’t bothered to collate despite pushing hard for them all of today) minus Pisskop and Realeo and one choice from Lane

lane0168 – Shaddow, MoI
PeregrineV – Infinity, Lane, MoI
Infinity – Peregrine, Shaddow
Shaddowez – Infinity, MoI
MagnaofIllusion – Infinity, Peregrine, Shaddow
Realeo - Lane
Pisskop - Peregrine

Players who claimed to barricade

–

Peregrine, Realeo, Shaddow, Infinity

Players who claimed to shoot (and target if given)

–

MoI – Shaddow
Lane – kraska

Pisskop hasn’t confirmed he shot Shos as of yet …

[MagnaofIllusion]

Takeaways from this data:

There’s some very interesting cross suspicions going on –

Infinity suspects myself, Peregrine and Shaddow and is in turn suspected by both Peregrine and Shaddow.
Both Infinity and I suspect Shaddow and Peregrine.
Both Peregrine and Shaddow suspect me.

I very much doubt there is significant bussing going on at this point as scum simply needs to a +1 net kill on Town over scum from here on out to win the game.

Personally if Peregrine and Shaddow aren’t the Masons I think they certainly stand the best chance of being scum. And if that’s the case I don’t see Infinity as their partner. Realeo fits that bill best, with an outside chance of Lane of Pisskop.

Night actions claims also hold up as far as not confirming anyone is outright lying. There were 12 possible Shots last night (Town Shos was Stranded) and taking out the claimed Barricade slots and my claimed shot on Shaddow that leaves 7 possible shots that could lead to 6 deaths.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Pisskop

– Listing your scum reads shouldn’t be that difficult. Type three names. And just confirm your action from last night. Frankly the fact that you are being so obstinate on both these very simple issues is bad. You and Realeo are the only ones holding up the Masons claim you want.

--

Excuse for my dumbness, but why are you mason hunting? I mean, we will out mason later.

How exactly am I mass hunting again? I’m calling them scum. The being Masons would explain the scummy play and their in-sync reads but I don’t think that’s the case.

Why do you suddenly take umbrage only after I suggest you make the best case partner for Pere and Shaddow scum?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm having too many townreads, tbh.

I find this a problem. There are 7 players alive. You know (or should be pretending) that you are Town and thus you absolutely are assured 3 of the 6 others left have to be scum. Hell if you are a Mason (which I don't see as likely myself) that number drops to 3 of 5.

Hell even if you just PoE off your strongest Town reads among the 6 / 5 then your scum list is the 3 least Town read by you. Shouldn't be that difficult.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Realeo

– Here’s my issue with your reads lists.

From town to scum {pisskop,lane/MOI,Shadow,Vedith,PeregineV}

So if PeregineV is scum {Shadow,Vedith,PeregineV}

If peregineev is town {lane/MOI,Shadow,Vedith}

First if Peregrine is scum you have a both Shaddow and Peregrine suspecting Infinity and Infinity also cross suspecting both of those. As I’ve said before while bussing in these sorts of reads lists isn’t impossible (Given they are just fluff with no voting or anything behind them) I don’t see scum working so hard to distance / bus each other given that they simply need a +1 Town net killed at Night to win.
It might be a gambit to make people less like to shoot within that threesome but that’s a pretty convoluted explanation at this point in time.

Secondly your teams don’t make tons of sense in light of this you floated earlier …

Am I the only one who is speculating that Moi is SM, Shadow is barricading goon? and that Moi shoot Shadow is just some crazy gambit?

I mean, I can't justify them by direct accusation, but I can justify them by POE.

If you are Town and really thought “Hey, maybe my Town reads are borked” and honestly dropped this theory I would think your 3 Scum depth chart would reflect that more strongly than the “Maybe it can be MoI with Shaddow” that your scenario with Peregrine as Town presents it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also Lane's 1204 needs serious answers from Realeo.

[MagnaofIllusion]

My scumlean and my null is dead. Like 100%. Kraska? Nosferatu? my scum lean? Gone! Not_Chara? Almost50? my null? Gone!

For clarity of everyone else - under Realeo's abridged Spoiler she says this where Not Chara and Almost50 are Null reads compared to earlier today when they were Town reads per his quotes.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Can you at least give cursory lip service to my towncase on real?

Do you want me to say that I generally don’t give much attention at all to Town-cases especially with no flipped scum?

Also question – do you have any experience with Scum Realeo? Because you acknowledge that you understand the concept that meta reviews must make use of both sides at 1191 in regards to me.

That said I took a quick look at your Town-case …

This is a town perspective.

Don’t see why what you quoted isn’t easily replicable as scum …

The logic here seems a bit simplistic, but I see a lot of people who scumhunt like this and the push on pisskop makes a lot of sense with this mindset.

This sentence basically says nothing concrete about his alignment but something about his playstyle which is NAI.

(and the whole discussion about the meta check)

I actually really liked this. Sometimes I like doing quick meta checks as town just to verify something or to get a general sense of a person's play. Also, it didn't really feel like it was for show. Countering your own push when you don't really need to doesn't seem like a play that makes sense as scum.

Also unsure that what you boil down to “Why would scum back off when they find they might have made a mistake?” which is what any smart scum does. So pretty NAI to me.

Really feel this a town a lot. In RVS, I basically do everything I possibly can to get the game moving, and I get annoyed at people when they criticize that (remember princess bride, shadow/MoI)?

Question on this – why should I remember Princess Bride vis-a-vie your thoughts on RVS when IIRC you replaced a slot Day 2?

Feels like town LAMIST to me. "Hey look, I'm trying to do stuff guys" in a subtle way like this doesn't seem like a scum tactic to me.

There is no such thing a Town LAMIST. The fact that you are trying to peddle what ostensibly should be a sign of scum trying too hard makes my head spin here.

This is a subtle thing that I doubt scum would pick up on and point out.

Um, whut? The thing you are quoting makes very, very little sense and trying to ascribe that only Town can be perceptive is bad.

Doesn't make much sense to me, but I don't think scum would try to throw out wild accusations like "you scumclaimed!!!". Scum want to make their arguments sound reasonable and intelligent.

Have you ever played with Fate? Katsuki? Camn? This is trying to ascribe playstyle to an alignment and is bad.

In summary – I’m not at all in love with your case for the reasons I’ve already pointed out above. That pile of posting leads to a strong Town read for you on Realeo?

[MagnaofIllusion]

8Perv --> scumnugget why the hell doesnt anybody ever listen to me on these? I mean its not like Ive done something like called out the entire scumteam in lylo, including their roles after dicking around all game before... .... oh wait I have

Lots of people are scum reading Pere.

Stop pointlessly grandstanding with fluff and pay attention.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hands up, who here actually pursued their scumread on pere instead of playing with their jimmies?


o/

Does what you are calling pushing your scum-read voting in what is LYLO when there are unknown Masons about and a vote on any Town gives scum the chance to quick-Strand which automatically dooms Town to a loss?

In that case yes proudly raise your hand.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I am NOT a Mason.

This needs to be resolved sooner so we can start looking at who to strand today.

--

Quite the contrary, bussing is favorable.

I mean, given how easy town for town to fuk up, it gives scum an incentive to invest for long ball. There's a high chance of scum win due to town fuk up so why focus with slow term when you can do precautionary act for long term?

I'll get to your other thoughts later but this is clearly not smart.

Scum will be in the pool of 5 players who are not Masons. This means if they choose to bus now they are increasing the likelyhood that once that pool of 5 gets determined they are more likely to be shot. The two non-Mason Town pretty much have to shoot tonight given they have a likelyhood of 75% hitting Mafia. So bussing at this point would be inviting a higher chance that the Strongman gets clipped.

[MagnaofIllusion]

But if the strongman gets clipped, the other scum becomes the strongman. If the other scum is townier, it's ovah for town.

Irrelevant. Scum death (Strongman or not) means Town is closer to possible victory. And having the possibility that if the Non-Strongman shoots they could die means scum have to weigh whether to roll the dice on trying to get both Masons Night 2 at the risk of possibly getting all killed that Night.

[MagnaofIllusion]

*shrugs* They didnt quickhammer, did they?

Doesn’t mean it was a very stupid move. Just like choosing to drive drunk – just because the result didn’t do damage doesn’t mean it is something you should be doing.

--

I actually don't see this. At the time MoI was voting you, you had 3 votes and shos had 2. MoI switched to shos' wagon, effectively switching the numbers. He then stays on the shos(who is now conftown) wagon until deadline. How does that show town motivation?

Remind me again – whose wagon did you end up on? Oh that’s right, confirmed Town Nos. So you can pretend scum-reading Shos is a sign of scum but then I guess so is scum reading Nos also … right?

--

You could say that for most towntells, but it's just unlikely that scum would both think to do that exact thing and have the confidence to pull it off believably.

You can say that for all Town tells. Which is why saying “It’s unlikely for scum to do x, y, z” is foolish.

Being scum will inherently affect the way people bring up accusations and the way they play the game in general-- the scumhunting playstyle shining through here indicates he's genuinely scumhunting imo.

No, not really. I mean I get that you aren’t going to agree with me … but expecting me to agree to a “Town-case” with these reasons is bad.

I don't think that scum would think they made a mistake there. It's actually quite easy for scum to continue a push on someone who's being blatantly anti-town.

You start this with the key phrase “I don’t think” that renders the rest of your argument meaningless. Scum can and do back off arguments like that one because that’s what Town would do. So pretending it is alignment indicative is pointless.

I LAMIST as town all the time

Pointing out your contributions to getting the game going is a natural human thing to do. Like 'ha, I'm being productive!'.

Then you need to improve your Town play. Pointing out how Town you are being means that you think Town should have to be reminded that you are being productive. Which is a sign that you either aren’t actually being that productive or are too worried about being Town-read which is to some degree scummy.

In general, scum doesn't really care enough to try to go deep and pick out small things just to look town.

With how town tends to play, it's easy enough to look town without doing that./b]

Again – you are making a sweeping generalization that just doesn’t hold true. Scum absolutely will do that if it gets them easy Town reads from players like you.
And the bolded actually echoes what I just said – ther eis absolutely no need to LAMIST if playing Town as Town is easy enough to do.

I don't want to get into a long argument, but I didn't like how you just straight ignored it originally.

You can choose to not like it if you want. It got ignored because, as I have said, it is full of mis-identification of so called “Town tells”

[MagnaofIllusion]

First thing’s first – Realeo’s 1253 shows he doesn’t understand Occam’s Razor. Which isn’t unusual because it get misapplied all the time. Occam’s Razor says “other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex ones”. Nothing about compromise at all.

In the case addressed – it is much much more unlikely that Shaddow and Peregrine are scum with Infinity given massive cross scum-reads given that there is little benefit for scum to do so when the simpler explanation is that they are not a 3-man scum team.

That Realeo is trying to somehow say this is a scum-slip says he’s stretching pretty badly to justify moving his so called “Town/Towny/ Townish” previously claimed (today’s) read on me to scum.

--

Pay attention that I have used the word towny instead of town. Adjective.

Are they towny? Positive. Are they town? Null. Why I nulled them despite I see them towny? Simple, if I try to townread my scumread as part of my self sanity-check, then I also try to scumread my townread as part of my sanity-check

And remember the context, I'm not exactly making declaration. I'm making comparison against peregineV. The dead towny against the alive scummy--why the scummy is alive?

Both these are scummy as fuck. You are basically saying “Yes, I called them Towny but that didn’t mean I thought they were Town” in an attempt to cover for the fact that your reads have no trajectory or coherence that would be expected from a Town player.

I think it should be obvious by this point that I like to throw random things for feedback. Remember my d1 clash of pisskop v Realeo? If I actually believe in that read, I would tunnel at you already like I did at shos.

So you think that declaring “Oh, I just spout random theories all the time” is an excuse for behavior that isn’t Town at all? Because filling the thread with “fake reads” and “Oh, that’s not a read just a general assessment” is Anti-Town as fuck and only benefits scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If you have problem with me throwing random idea, why complain now at D2? Why not at D1? I went 7 IRL days at D1 without attacking anyone. I made like 60+ posts during the first 7 days.

Because in Day 2 which is not cluttered with tons of "let's set-up break" posts filling the thread the manner in which you constantly self-contradict and try to explain away why "reads aren't really reads" looks like scum scrambling after being called out for having no solid trajectory to how said reads changed / developed.

Pretty self-explanatory.

Really the kicker for me is you are still waffling between calling me scum (for a scum-slip which makes absolutely no sense) and appealing to me in a manner that says "MoI is Town" depending on the post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Confirmed to not be Masons –

MoI, Realeo, Infinity

Yet to claim –

Lane, Pisskop, Peregrine, Shadow

[MagnaofIllusion]

So you feel pisskops push on me is legitimate?

Are you a Mason or not? Delaying is going to yield nothing if you are and if you are not it's pretty much certified you are scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Mod - will be V/LA from basically now til Monday morning as per usual.

I'll be re-reading with Peregrine and Pisskop as Masons based on 1293. If that changes I'll have to re-read Monday.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok I see all weekend has gone by and the funny game of "we aren't actually claiming Masons" has continued.

I'm not reading 6 sets of ISOs looking at interactions. 4 is the max I'm going to do. So until is see positive confirmation of "Yes, Player X and Player Y are Masons" from both X and Y consider me prod dodging.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Isn't the mason peregineV and pisskop?

If you can find me a post by either positively saying "Hey I'm Masons with X" please quote it since I missed it in that case.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Shaddow

- are you a Mason or not?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because everyone is a viga

You do understand that scum only needs to net an additional kill on any Town, not just the Masons, above kills made on scum to win the game, right?

I mean this whole "we don't need to be explicitly clear" is pretty stupid when being stubborn doesn't increase Towns chances of winning.

So I'll be looking at the interactions between Lane / Shaddow / Infinity / Realeo and coming up with my assessment of the most likely scum team.

Also for the record if Shaddow is in that scum team I will not support stranding anyone but him. I know for a fact he's not the Strongman so if he is scum him being stranded helps Town signficantly.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm not sure why MoI doesn't think shadow is the strongman, but I think in general it's hard to distinguish between strongman and non-strongman scum play.

Because I shot him last Night. If he was the Strongman he'd be dead. If you choose to not believe me I can't help that. But I know for certain Shaddow isn't the Strongman.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So looking at Lane / Shaddow / Realeo / Vedith + Infinity interactions on Day 1 …

Lane –

Realeo – Question to him at 86. He follows up Realeo’s response with another question at 116. At 128 Lane explains his issues with Realeo’s 4 minute meta. Soft assertion that Realeo is scum at 231. Questions to Realeo at 509. Votes Realeo at 902. But immediately votes Shos again at 905 after quoting Realeo voting Peregrine but saying he would move back to Shos. Prods Realeo for not discussing R’s Peregrine read at 1039. Lists Realeo in his “kill pool” Day 1 with Shos and kraska.

Vedith / Infinity – Very soft attack on Vedith at 146.

Shaddow – Lane votes Shaddow at 147 for effectively “playing dumb” which he also said Shos was doing. Backs off attack on Shaddow at 157.

--

Lane has minimal interactions with the Vedith slot and the Shaddow slot. Both were soft interactions very early that didn’t amount to anything of significance. Meanwhile his interactions and questions to Realeo are pretty plentiful and don’t look like partners.

The only conclusion I can draw from just looking at Lane is very likely he and Realeo aren’t partners.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So looking at Lane / Shaddow / Realeo / Vedith + Infinity interactions on Day 1 …

Realeo–

Lane – Responds to Lane’s accusations about not getting a read via R’s meta read on Pisskop at 115. Another response to Lane where he suggests RVS is too narrow a scope to get a proper meta read. Need to compare this to a later post. At 173 suggests Lane and Shos are both Town or both Scum. Accuses Lane of defending him when Lane voted Shos. Suggests Lane is scum with Shos in 498. Responds to a question from Lane at 906 and 907.

Vedith / Infinity – Brings attention to Vedith’s low activity at 284 but fence-sits on it being alignment indicative. Questions why Vedith is voting him along with Shos at 392. Lists Vedith as implicitly opposing Shos plan at 482. The follow-up statements to Vedith at 484 and 486 look like coaching but the Mafia having Daytalk means that’s not a valid line of thought. Deflects a question from Vedith at 501. Answers another question from Vedith at 507. Realeo says he stopped talking to see Vedith “in action” at 975.

Shaddow – Mentions Shaddow as an early scum suggestion for being least Town lean at 60. Having a least Town lean on page 3 strikes me as odd. Answers a softball question from Shaddow at 506.

--

Similar conclusion from reading Lane’s ISO. I don’t see them as partners. Has significantly more Vedith interaction and that interaction doesn’t look like partners to me. Shaddow is still basically a null space. Gun to my head I’d say Lane / Vedith / Shaddow based on the first two ISOs but I want to look at Vedith and Shaddow first.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So looking at Lane / Shaddow / Realeo / Vedith + Infinity interactions on Day 1 …

Vedith–

Lane – Literally nothing.

Realeo – Vedith votes Realeo at 95. A vey soft call of scum from Vedith at 385. A question to Realeo at 408. Rebutts some assertions from Realeo at 483 to 489. Says Realeo needs lynced or shot tonight. His vote is still on Realeo. Asks Realeo who is scum at 497. In fact the rest of his ISO is mostly interactions with Realeo. Says Realeo’s posting is not Town posting at 793.

Shaddow – Literally nothing.

--

If this isn’t more or less confirmation of a Lane / Infinity / Shaddow team I don’t know that is. Not a single post Day 1 from Vedith towards either of them. And I don’t see Realeo / Vedith as strongly viable.

Going to read Shaddow’s Day 1 first but very likely my vote is coming down in my next post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So looking at Lane / Shaddow / Realeo / Vedith + Infinity interactions on Day 1 …

Shaddow–

Lane – Town-reads Lane at 226 for fairly weak reasons.

Realeo – Nothing.

Vedith – Shaddow votes Vedith at 47. This vote is replaced by a vote on kraska at 276.

--

Actually Shaddow’s ISO is pretty much empty which I think is much more likely to come from lurker scum in this set-up. Him and Pers combined Day 1 is 47 total posts, 34 of which are the Mods. When he does post he generally doesn’t assert much in the way of strong accusations. His full ISO in Princess Bride Mafia is similarly small but to my eye has much more active scum-hunting. He was Town there.

The interactions with both Vedith (RVS vote which is a classic subconscious scum move considering no other interaction) and Lane (Town read early for fairly weak reasons) don’t dissuade me from my earlier thoughts that they are partners.

Looking at the Day 1 vote counts Lane, Shaddow and Vedith never share a wagon that is higher than 2 votes and given the players most under pressure Day 1 were both Town (shos and Nos) there was no need for them to do so.

VOTE: Shaddow

Of the three he to me is the slam-dunk strand. I personally know absolutely he can’t be the Strongman. So Stranding him leaves him a sitting duck as scum and prevents and easy double up to kill an additional Town along with the Strongman kill.

I will not be moving this vote.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I will adress what's wrong with MOI's wall of post tommorow. Almost 11 pm in my country.

If you are expecting me to care personally don't bother.

If you want to convince the Masons knock yourself out.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Scum have daytalk as per the setup. If he's scum, there's a chance he didn't actually shoot me but one of his buddies did, and he's just making the ploy. I'm not sure to what end that would serve, but there's zero guarantee he's Goon or Town.

In other words you actually can't point to anything to would actually support your claim and are backing right off the "MoI is Strongman" I see.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Who said they shot the stranded guy?

No-one claimed it. You said you were going to. Didn't you?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Today scum is all about NOT stranding the strongman in an effort to have both goons shoot.

You may want to restate this because you are basically contradicting yourself. Scum would be 100% about stranding Town or the Strongman.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Would you guys be willing to vote MoI?

I'm ok with voting lane but it might be realeo/shadow/MoI and PoE is the only thing that makes me think lane is scum.

Why not ask them to support a Shaddow lynch? You claim he's scum that I'm bussing and is included in your "it could be" list. Both Masons supporting him would be a hammer on him being Stranded.

You don't really want either Lane or Shaddow stranded do you?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Not voting for shaddowez.

The fact that you aren't even trying to get them to look at Shaddow is the important point.

If you were Town and so dead-sure that Shaddow is scum (and everything you claim as your reads says he is) I'd expect maybe you'd try to convince the Masons onto your wagon of choice.

But you aren't even in the slightest.

Instead you look to derail the Lane wagon they are starting. Onto a wagon with zero current votes as opposed to the wagon you are currently voting with 2 votes.

Scum with Lane and Shaddow as I concluded earlier ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

I can't be bothered. With their play so far it'll probably just be unnecessary work trying to convince them. I don't really care if we strand someone who has a 90% chance of being scum instead of a 95% chance. The fact that you're trying to stretch that stupid thing into something scummy goes beyond your usual stretchiness and is pretty scummy in and of itself.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I wondered what it would take for you to actually vote me and abandon your bussing ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hi is the town fucktarded by not voting with the masons?

lets see.... 2 masons, 3 fucking scum, 3 poeple not voting with themasons

See this issue is that you being Masons means we certainly aren't going to vote you but doesn't certify your reads as any better than any other Town player.

Also it's 2 other Town not voting with the Masons not 3.

I know for a fact that Shaddow isn't the Strongman. Unless the scum team is Lane / Realeo / Infinity then the best place for my vote to be is Shaddow as it for certain strands a Scum Goon tonight depriving them of a easy second kill possibility. And based on my review of Day 1 I think that scum trio isn't viable at all. If you don't believe me that's up to you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yea no, the issue is that scum probs have daytalk and even if they dont they can take ques from each other to reinforce each other.

You not voting with the confirmed town is a declaration that you want me to put a bullet between your eyes.

This is why I don't care that you are a Mason with this sort of reasoning. Daytalk is irrelevant to the discussion. You and Pere may have decided you want Lane to be stranded but you haven't done anything in thread to show me why I shouldn't vote who I know to absolutely not be the Strongman and overwhelming likely to be scum to play "Follow the Masons".

As for threats - I'm going what is best the help assure that scum's ability to kill is minimized which helps provide you and Pere a degree of freedom as to what actions to take tonight. If that earns me a bullet from you so be it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Do you think lane is the strongman? Or town?

Are you not reading?

I'm 100% serious in this.

I've already stated that I think the scum team is Lane / Infinity / Shaddow.

So I think he's scum. And could be the Strongman. I know Shaddow is not. Thus my vote.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from 4:30EDT today until Monday morning for my usual weekend family time.

I don’t have a ton to say at this point. Neither pisskop or Peregrine are providing anything of substance to make me think that sheeping them on Lane. If you guys have anything of you think makes him the better strand over Shaddow that form my point of view makes taking what I see as a 50/50 gamble of him being the Strongman over a 100% sure thing that Shaddow isn’t please let me know.

Realeo’s recent string of posts makes me shake my head. The only post that I think really bears any response is the following –

So I am having trouble.

Assume that my lane not with shadow combo is right.

The trouble you are having is that Lane / Shaddow not being partners isn’t really grounded in anything tangible I can see. If you have anything that clearly spells it out I’d suggest restating it because I don’t see that pairing as non-viable at all.

There is 100% without a doubt bussing going on. It's mathematically impossible not to.

Another reason why I see Lane as scum – this is just not true at all.

3 scum know the Masons at this point. So they each have 4 choices of votes – 2 partners and 2 non-Mason Town. Yet there is nothing that says those 3 scum can’t vote in the 2 non-Mason Town (3-0 or 2-1). So floating it as a mathematical impossibility is wrong.

Of course scum probably are bussing since Shaddow is voting Infinity and Lane is voting Shaddow. Note that Infinity will not move to either Lane or Shaddow. No benefit to actually stranding a partner unless they are the Strongman. This, BTW, makes me think Lane is most likely to be the Strongman.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In case it needs to be re-stated –

The non-Mason Town should automatically be shooting into their possible scum pool tonight. We absolutely have to kill at least 1 scum tonight otherwise we lose. And even randomly odds are at worst 75% to hit scum. This complicates the Night action decision making process for any non-Stranded Goon.

Masons should leave it up to themselves privately what their final action is – be it barricading or both shooting a single scum suspect or anywhere in between.

For the record – if Shaddow is stranded I’m absolutely shooting him as I’m as sure as possible he’s scum. So the Masons / other Non-Mason Town know not to double up potential shots there. BTW – regardless of what you think of my alignment in a Shaddow stranded situation this Pro-Town to follow. I can explain if you don’t comprehend.

[MagnaofIllusion]

No. No. No.

I was assuming that my Lane / Shadow is correct to refute my own arguments. Go reread.

Don't care as most of the arguments I've seen you laying down make not much sense from my point of view right now. I'm not callin you scum as I don't see any way you are scum via my reading of the game-state and Day 1.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Shaddow as he got to 2 votes first. See below vote counts.

Note also how quickly Infinity jumped off his claimed scum read (Shaddow) once Lane jumped on. Scum don't want to bus the Goons too strongly for obvious reasons.

Votecount 2.7

shaddow (2) - magna, infinity

infinity (1) - realeo

Not voting (4) - lane0168, PeregrineV, shaddowez, pisskop

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to strand.

(expired on 2016-09-26 18:30:00) remain until day end

Votecount 2.8

shaddow (2) - magna, infinity
infinity (1) - realeo
realeo (1) - lane

Not voting (3) - PeregrineV, shaddowez, pisskop

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to strand.

(expired on 2016-09-26 18:30:00) remain until day end

Votecount 2.9

shaddow (2) - magna, infinity
infinity (1) - realeo
realeo (1) - lane
lane (2) - peregrine, pisskop

Not voting (1) - shaddowez

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to strand.

(expired on 2016-09-26 18:30:00) remain until day end

Votecount 2.10

shaddow (3) - magna, infinity, lane

L-1

infinity (2) - realeo, shaddow
lane (2) - peregrine, pisskop

Not voting (0) -

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to strand.

(expired on 2016-09-26 18:30:00) remain until day end

Votecount 2.11

shaddow (2) - magna, lane
infinity (1) - shaddow
lane (2) - peregrine, pisskop
magna (1) - infinity

Not voting (1) - realeo

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to strand.

(expired on 2016-09-26 18:30:00) remain until day end

[MagnaofIllusion]

Of course scum probably are bussing since Shaddow is voting Infinity and Lane is voting Shaddow. Note that Infinity will not move to either Lane or Shaddow. No benefit to actually stranding a partner unless they are the Strongman. This, BTW, makes me think Lane is most likely to be the Strongman.

Actually scratch this - the unwillingness for scum to bus Lane make me think he is the other Goon. Because if he was Town with both Masons parked on him like it was a premium valet spot Downtown you would think scum would be all over stranding him. But no-one wants to go there.

But no-one wants to go there.

Hmmmm ... need to rethink my stance on not moving my vote ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

If people are making their list of 3 scum. Then yes, there is bussing. Considering most of my all have made their list of 3 scum. Then yes, there is bussing. How am I wrong?

Making a list of three players isn't bussing. Bussing is the actual action of voting said suspects. What you are describing is distancing and weak distancing at that.

See your partners have weakly distanced from you but don't want to bus you since of the 4 players not the Masons or you not a single one of them is voting you right now.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Haha yes! Cause scum want to scum claim when everyone has a vig. Theres no way they'd jump all over any lynch

Again this is why I can't see you as Town. You are posting in weak generalities instead of actually thinking through implications of the game-state. Which I expect to come from Scum. Why do I say this?

Let's examine a hypothetical game-state where you are Town (yes, clearly it is hypothetical).

Town Lane sits at L-2 with the only votes on him from uncounter-claimed Masons. That leaves 1 non-Mason Town and 3 scum who can vote for you. You suggest scum don't want to "jump to look scummy" but that doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

1. Stranding Town you means 3 Scum and 3 Town (1 Non-Mason, 2 Masons) can act at Night.
2. Scum has 1 assured kill no matter what (the Strongman).
3. Scum wins the game when they achieve a +1 Net Town kill over Scum kill Night result.

The Strongman is going to shoot one of the Masons. That much is clear. So that's +1 Town kill if no-one else acts. Aka Scum Victory.

So now we are faced with a situation where 2 Masons and 1 uncoordinated Town have to outperform 2 Goons in kills. And that's a dicey situation. Goons can automatically net a second Town kill on hypo-Town Lane who is stranded. Leaving 1 Goon who can choose to Barricade.

So the Masons are in a pickle. They know one of them is getting killed no matter what they do. But both coordinated shooting to make sure achieve a Scum kill runs the risk of either hitting the other non-Mason Town (insta Town Loss) or the Strongman (which is great but only nets 1 Mafia kill making the game in the hands of the non-Mason Town). And spreading their shots runs the risk of hitting the non-Mason Town which makes a successful kill with the other shot net 0 Mafia kills and ends the game.

The other non-Mason town is in a similarly bad spot. If he shoots outside the Stranded he is certain to hit scum. But does he double up with the Masons? Also keep in mind in this hypothetical example he doesn't know Lane is Town which complicates his decision making process.

And I haven't even got into the fact that there are huge WIFOM head-aches in which scums choose to "expose" themselves as you are claiming. Does the Strongman participate or not? Wine all around on that ...

So to make a long story short (too late) there is little reason in the game-state for scum to avoid Stranding hypo-Town lane. But there certainly is reason for scum to not want to strand a Goon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This is the same logic that makes me townread lane to be honest. He was scumreading me and declared that he will flip to me in an instant. People rebuttals me, people rebuttals moi but no one really refutes lane (There is a small exchange between infinity-butlane and that's it) . Is this because he is town in misdirection (ie. town!lane scumreading town!Realeo) so scum doesn't bother with him.

Well given I know there can't be a Town Lane with a Town Realeo it is pretty clear to me the answer is No.

You of course can't know that from your perspective. But if I'm scum (which from a perspective of Town Lane and Realeo must be true) why have I been laser focused on bussing Shaddow today when, with Lane in my scum-list, I could have easily just sheeped the Masons and voted him?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Go through this with a sample iteration, since I think your numbers are off.

There are 7 players alive. 4 Town and 3 Scum. Scum wins when Scum number equal Town numbers.

If every non-Strongman barricades the Strongman kills some Town player. At the end of Night it is 3-3. Scum wins.

If Town kills 1 Scum player and Scum kills 1 Town player Night ends at 3-2. Game continues.

If Town kills 1 Scum player and Scum kills 2 Town players Night ends at 2-2. Scum wins.

If Town kills 1 Scum player and 1 Town player and Scum kills 1 Town player Night ends at 2-2. Scum wins.

I could go on but every permutation is going to get the same results - as long as 1 additional Town player is killed above the number of scum players killed then scum wins.

The only way Town wins at this stage is to have Nights with net zero (or better) Town deaths.

[MagnaofIllusion]

It's not explicitly stated in the Role PMs but if Scum equal the number of living Town then Town can never Strand a scum player and scum are guaranteed to every Night at worst achieve a scorched Earth scenario which scum Win.

[MagnaofIllusion]

For coordination purposes since I'm about to be sans internet access except phone -

I'm going to shoot any of my scum reads (Shaddow / Lane / Infinity) if they are stranded. So the Masons understand what action I am taking.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok I see all weekend has gone by and the funny game of "we aren't actually claiming Masons" has continued.

I'm not reading 6 sets of ISOs looking at interactions. 4 is the max I'm going to do. So until is see positive confirmation of "Yes, Player X and Player Y are Masons" from both X and Y consider me prod dodging.

are you claimin not to be mason

I am not ccing

@Peregrine and Shaddow

- what the hell were you playing at? Shadow got stranded because you were played stupid and coy instead of straightforwardly claiming.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thanks for the game Pers. It is going to be a swingy as hell set-up. That's the nature of public all Vig games. Don't think it is breakable Day 1.

I'd probably play another iteration if the chance arose.

I'm still mystified how all the Town other than myself didn't understand that keeping Masons secret was absolutely pointless after Night 1. Pro-Tip: Pisskop "eating a Mason kill" via fake-claiming was pointless as scum just needed body-count. Didn't matter if the Masons lived to get endgamed. As happened with Pere.

Had Shaddow and Pere just straight claimed Mason strongly it would have changed my approach to the day. Still probably would have missed Realeo but would have absolutely stranded Lane instead of Shaddow and shot him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

You are able to draw incorrect conclusions from the smallest thing. I figured the fact that we did not hard claim would make it seem obvious. If you check me iso, and believed me to be mason, then Shadow was my obvious mason buddy.

Then that leaves you in the same place as us, is pisskop faking mason as town, or as scum?

But it didn't really matter.

No. That's crappy play. It was incumbent on you to be as clear as possible in the situation because playing herp-a-derp cloak and dagger games resulted in Shaddow getting stranded. Clarity on Day 2 was of utmost importance.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because he was town willing to take a kill a for a mason, leaving the real mason alive.

Who cares? The scum winning play at that stage is not "must kill the Masons". It is "Kill one more Town player than Town kills scum players" and it doesn't matter whether they are Masons or Citizens.

Again - you played in an obfuscating manner when the game-state specifically called for you not to. 100% of the reason I was so dead set on stranding Shaddow was that I absolutely knew he wasn't the Strongman. I had toyed with hammering Lane at one point but couldn't justify doing so given I couldn't be sure he wasn't the Strongman as I knew Shaddow was not.

Shaddow claiming Masons eliminates that element from coloring my reads and play.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I disagree. I said there should be no voting.

Later, when you believe me and pisskop to be masons, and said "Vote lane", you did not, and scum piled on and hammered town.

You can disagree all you wish but that doesn't make you correct. You seem to be missing the point where you had given no reason to vote Lane over Shaddow given I knew Shaddow couldn't be the Strongman and Lane stood at worst a 1/3rd shot of being so. From my perspective I'm not taking at lowest a 33% chance of stranding the Strongman when I have a known 0% chance of stranding the Strongman in my scum reads.

Had you just claimed as was smart Shaddow would never have been in my scum-reads to begin with ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

What does everyone think about the strand mechanic?
- keep it as is

I don't see any reason to change it at this stage. Maybe if you run 5 iterations and they all end up with scum wins then maybe. I'd like to see another iteration and how it plays out.

[MagnaofIllusion]

The object of the game is not to just strand the not-strongman, but to also strand not-town.

Yup. And your stupid decision not to clearly claim allowed just that.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Did you think I was a mason?

Did you think pisskop was a mason?

Yes. It would have been stupid for you not to claim truthfully based on the game-state.

[MagnaofIllusion]

No one else except MoI knew it was town voting town.

No other town voted for shaddow.

Don't be stupid.

I didn't know shaddow was Town. I wouldn't have fucking voted him if I did.

I thought he was scum BECAUSE you both stupidly chose to not properly claim and reviewing his play put him as very likely scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I disagree.

At the end of the day the fact that the Mod (who is by default independent) is saying your decision was a poor one (along with other Town players and even scum players) should tell you maybe you need to re-assess the quality of your claim decision.

[MagnaofIllusion]

With scum having 3 skills, one unblockable, and there being 4 town left, trying to make the scum second guess themselves was all we had.

Again since this is so hard for you to get -

SCUM DON'T CARE WHO THE MASONS ARE!

Scum knows who Town is. They know they need to accomplish 1 more kill on Town than Town makes on scum.

Allowing a Mason to get stranded just means Town had 1 less gun / 1 less self-protect available. Which increases scum chance of getting that +1 net kill.

And even if I had barricaded last Night it doesn't matter. Lane was shooting Shaddow also and the Strongman shot you. Two Town kills. Doesn't matter that you killed Lane as that's still +1. Town still loses. I was never even going to shoot Realeo and me shooting Lane doesn't change the Night outcome.