NY 114: Mafia vs. Werewolves (Game Over)

[Nikanor]

Oh hey, that game looks familiar.

Hi everyone. I'm reading up now, but don't expect me to be done today. Or even tomorrow.

[Nikanor]

What the heck. This IS a Large game, right? Why is this game 12th on my watched topics list? YOU KNOW YOU CAN TALK WHEN I'M CATCHING UP, RIGHT?

[Nikanor]

Socrates, your post just seems like a bunch of WIFOM and OMGUS.

HOLD ME PARAMA, WHISPER SWEET REASURING WORDS AND TELL ME THAT WHAT I AM DOING IS RIGHT.

This looks like misrep. That's not what Parama is doing.
And before you say it, yes. I am doing ad homonym on "whisper sweet reassuring words" and "tell me that what I am doing is right" (ad homonym actually means "attacking same name" in latin, in case you didn't know.)

1. Foilist (for now)
2. Nhammen

So if foilist gets lynched you're happy to lynch nhammen? That's just blatently lining up your lynches.

3. You/Serial

Obviously a false dichotomy.

Do what I do and don't read day 1. It's the strategy of champions!

Clearly an opportunistic way to get me to not read the thread.

Now I'm going to sit back and watch as you get all overdefensive. (Yes, I was bored. Day one is boring so far).

[Nikanor]

Starting with this post, Vi votes for LMP, then vez quickly follows up with a vote of LMP. He goes from voting

for

someone to voting

with

someone. And if he had some sort of secret magical information that LMP is mafia, why was he not voting on that before?
Whoo multiple-use day role cop!

Edit after looking at Seraphim's claim: Or not....
Edit after looking at Seraphim's edited claim: Or so!

I am too confused. And you are too scummy.

Vote; daniel94581.

Pom confused! Pom smash with brick!

That's really all that catches my eye for now. And I'm going to leave off at lucky page number 13.

[Nikanor]

So when I left off I had the hate on for vezo. Let's see where that goes now...
This post by SGRaaize makes me cringe. The waves of scumminess are blowing my mind. Adding lol to the end of every sentence is something that nervous scum would do. Not only that, but suggesting that both vezo and daniel are wolves is just setting up lynches for later.

Alright, so LMP has guaranteed info that vezo is town. That's nice.
Why do I still feel like I'm missing something here? I don't think there was a night zero, was there?

This post by nhammen is interesting in that this is the first time he mentions Dr. Robotnik, and throws him in as scummy for no apparent reason (distancing maybe?)

I totally agree with this post made by Parama. I doubt that all of them are scum, though.

Unsight sticking up for nhammen is scummy.

Um, what? You're worried about the speed at which Chronopie jumped on the wagon. Why aren't you worried about the Clergyman? This post by Unsight is even worse now that we know Chronopie was a townie. If nhammen flips scum, Unsight needs to die.

So vezo is confirmed town. Good stuff. It probably saves us a mislynch.

there are usually more scum blockers (in my experience, lol)

I find this lol is very suspicious. It feels like he's attempting to discredit his own experience, which is scummy.

Parama's weird defense of Timeater is weird.

I'm not sure how this is supposed to classify as analysis. It's just information. And I think that some sticky guy made of tar classifies that as a standard scum tell.

So, Unsight is attacking Vi for defending SSBF. I believe I mentioned earlier that Unsight had defended nhammen without explicitly defending him while the wagon was building.

Ew ew ew. askbob says he doesn't buy that there is a town roleblocker. His entire scumlist is the lurkers combined with nhammen. So he unvotes nhammen to add to the wagon nhammen started?(!?!?) How is this productive?

Wait... unless he was a third party, like a serial killer, that would be genius from the mod, lol

Please mommy can I lynch him pretty please!

This is terrible. I get more of an overenthusiastic town read from it than a scum read, though.

Lowell trying to discredit vezo is pretty interesting. Scumpoints for Lowell.

That's it for this post.

[Nikanor]

Sorry, I'm a really slow reader. I'll be working on catching up more today. I think I'm on page 26 or so.

[Nikanor]

I'm picking up my prod.
The read-through is not going so well. But I'm still here! And I'm working on it.

[Nikanor]

Okay, I'm caught up!

My top scum reads are Dr. Robotnik, Shrinehme, Socrates and Lowell in no particular order.
I'm particularly certain of a Shrinehme-Robotnik scumpair because of This post by Robotnik. That also explains the hopping back and forth between the Robotnik-Shrine wagons we've had over the past few pages, which is something I see much more often when both wagons are on scum.

Anyway, I just spent the last five hours reading and my eyes are burning and my stomach is clocking about six grumbles per minute so I'm going to cook something then I'll be back with more stuff maybe.

[Nikanor]

Vote: Shrinehme.

It's the bigger bandwagon on the Robotnik+Shrine pair.

Is the Midnight hate because he's been active lurking? When I was doing my catchup I just skimmed the latest pages so that I could eat my dinner. I don't think I caught much of the case on him.

[Nikanor]

Mine was the 9th vote on Shrinehme.

[Nikanor]

Hi. I'm just waiting back for Shrine to be lynched.
Battle Mage, I see your tactics are as transparent as always. Why are you treating the Shrine lynch as if it was poison, though?

[Nikanor]

BM is not a VI. He just really really likes gambits.
BM: I have a suspicion that Robotnik and Shrine are scumbuddies and that that is the reason for the wagon split we have.

[Nikanor]

Vote: Socrates.

Unsight is scum with Socrates.
Nice work figuring that out, Nikanor! You're a GENUS! ^5

[Nikanor]

@Lowell: It's because he's already decided that he's not going to vote for Socrates today.

[Nikanor]

Well that's weird, because the kill flavour screams SK.

Unvote. Vote: Unsight.

It's better over here.

[Nikanor]

So you're saying that both the SK's kill and a Mafia/Werewolf's kill was stopped Night 1?

Yes. Doctor & Roleblocker both stopping kills on night one would be the only thing to make sense if there was an sk. So either way, Socrates had a kill stopped and was scum.
And I've read the game.
Are you going to CLAIM sk? Because that would make this easier, Nacho.
As it is with your one-shot vig claim I'm not going lynch someone simply because they were blocked on the night of a no-kill. There are multiple other explanations, and I don't think that Socrates is particularly scummy himself.

I'm voting for Unsight because he's voting for MS over Socrates, when there was concrete evidence to suggest that Socrates was scum over MS. Whether Socrates is scum or not, that's just scummy.

[Nikanor]

Hmm. While I agree with this, then by your logic shouldn't you be voting Socrates? You're doing the same thing you're accusing Unsight of. Like you yourself said, there's concrete evidence that Socrates is likely scum, so uh why aren't you voting him?

No, I'm not. The evidence against Socrates is no longer concrete with Nacho's claim. It is now circumstantial evidence. I'm saying that the evidence before WAS concrete, and that Unsight is scummy for not following that evidence.
And before you say it, I know that there were other people who voted for MS before Unsight did. The difference is that Socrates is listed as one of Unsight's suspects, unlike myself and others who prefer the other wagons.

Name one scenario where Socrates ISN'T scum.

The mafia kill was blocked by a doctor on night one is one such scenario.

[Nikanor]

Save it.
You should probably vote for Unsight if you don't want to be lynched today, though.

[Nikanor]

If that's the case then we're back where we were yesterday. Socrates could have been blocked by nhammen (which is much more likely now that we know nhammen really was a roleblocker) or there could have been a doc save.

ZOMG YOU ARE RIGHT.
Are you going to actually

say

anything today, though?
And why are you acting so weird about Socrates?

[Nikanor]

The logical chain of "nhammen said he blocked Socrates" and "nhammen just flipped town roleblocker" therefore "Socrates is confirmed to have been roleblocked on a night missing a scum kill" didn't click for me last night.

I don't think Nacho's vig claim invalidates that logic train.

Are you telling me that you forgot the main point against Socrates, yet still put him second on your suspicion list?
You also voted for SGR/Socrates here with the sole reason being the roleblock on Socrates. You forgot about that?

That theory hinges on my now ignoring "evidence" that you and Nikanor are now trying strongly paint as "circumstantial" and "fake."

I have never used the word "fake." And if you know the definition of circumstantial evidence, you'll agree that this fits the category. Where's Netopalis when you need him?

I get the point against unsight, but the evidence against Socrates is still quite strong.

I thought you were supposed to be "working with Socrates".

I was pretty sure I had proved he was scum, but i recognized there could be holes in my logic, so I waited to see what he could come up with. He did, and I have now included that in my latest post which still leads me to believe he is scum. Therefore I voted him now that he's had his input.

He hasn't made a significant post yet. He has promised a significant post. Why didn't you wait for him to make a significant post, if you were waiting to see what he would come up with? If you were so want to work with Socrates, as you said in your post, why didn't you?

[Nikanor]

What about his iso convinced you to vote for Unsight, Socrates?

[Nikanor]

Unsight: I can accept that answer.

Unvote. Vote: folist13.

[Nikanor]

@Nikanor: You couldn't be bothered to post a reason with that could you?

NOPE!

[Nikanor]

SSBF: I've pointed out scummy things that foilist has done already. An example is that he started off a post assuming that he wasn't going to vote Socrates, pointed out that Socrates was 95% likely to be scum, then

didn't vote Socrates.

Then, once the concrete evidence against Socrates was disproven, foilist votes Socrates. I don't see how that makes sense from a town perspective. I sense an ulterior motive for not voting Socrates in that first post of his, which is why I'm voting him.

[Nikanor]

You said you would wait to see what he had to say.
Socrates then said that he'd post an analysis of Unsight's posts to see if he was worth voting.
You didn't wait for said post, and instead just made up some numbers (you deny this, but I still fail to see how your statistics are valid) and voted Socrates.
Am I missing anything?

[Nikanor]

I'd give your stats a margin of error of about 20-25%, foilist. There's no way of knowing what our mod considers normal, or what roles he included in this game. Not only that, but we don't know how many scum there are in each team, or what abilities they have that could prevent kills.
So yeah, at least 20%. And even a margin of 11% puts your probability over the 50% mark.

[Nikanor]

I still don't get why I'm the only vote on foilist.

Even then, taking the lowest possible scenario, he still has a higher probability of being scum than anyone else. So why is that not strong evidence for you?

60% is not strong evidence. 95% and greater is strong evidence. 60% is statistically inconclusive.
Plus, I have a gut feeling that Socrates will flip town.

[Nikanor]

@Nikanor: To me, in this game, 60% is lynch worthy evidence. However, even if you do not accept that you have at least admitted that he has an elevated probability. Couple that with the fact that his is a scummy player slot. Even now he is not exibiting town behavior. He has resigned himself to his lynch and is doing no scum hunting. That is exactly what a scum player should be doing. The less he talks the information there is for the the town and the more likely it is for him to lose attention. If he were town he would be doing everything in his power to find scum or stop his wagon.

If he were good town, this is true. If he were a good player, he wouldn't be giving up, no matter his alignment. I don't see the benefit of giving up to either alignment.

Leafsnail, your vote post seems awkward. I feel like you're trying to take credit for starting the foilist wagon when there's already a vote on him.

[Nikanor]

@Nikanor: So you're saying it is a null tell, correct? The problem is that requires him to be a poor player, which based on his earlier play he is not. Reread him in iso, he is not incompetent. That means he has either lost interest in the game (not an insignificant possibility), or is trying to lurk away the wagon on him.

That leaves the possibilities of disinterested town or scum.

@Bolded: Yes, that's what I'm saying. Thanks for the back-up, chief.

foilist, my biggest and best point against you is that in one post you said that you weren't going to vote for Socrates, then proved why he must be scum based on role information, but still didn't vote for him. That is consistency for the sake of consistency, and it is scummy. The icing on the cake is that you said that you were going to wait to see what Socrates had to say, but then voted him without hearing the case on Unsight that Socrates had promised.

[Nikanor]

This does look terribly for socrates, but let's not ignore other possibilities.

@Socrates: I'll work with you on this one.

<Snippity snip (stuff about setup speculation, et cetera)>

That means N1 there could have been a doc save, so we still have one unexplained kill.

That kill could not have been prevented, except by nhammen. So either he blocked it or it wasn't made.

That's THE SAME POST.
Then, in your next post, as a response to something Lowell says, you say that you're "waiting to see what he comes up with."

After that, Socrates makes two posts: this and this. Then, foilist makes a post here that doesn't address either of those posts made by Socrates.
Nine hours later, foilist votes for Socrates here. There's still no mention of what Socrates has come up with, which was supposed to be the reason for why foilist was waiting on his Socrates vote, right? Why is there no mention of Socrates's posts? And even after Socrates posts the case on Unsight, foilist

still

hasn't addressed what Socrates has come up with. That means that his earlier post in which he told Lowell that he was waiting to see what Socrates has to say is bullshit at the very least.

And foilist, a very good player in this very thread has mentioned that trying to get someone else lynched is the best defense you can make. Perhaps Socrates was taking a page out of the book of Vi. You didn't consider that?

[Nikanor]

1) Ok, first off, saying I'll work with him means I expect his input and for him to defend himself.

At the time, my read on him was still a town one and the

evidence mathematical

. It did not mean I didn't intend to vote him if that's where the logic lead me.

5) Failing to see anything yet to dissuade me, I

repost my logic

and vote Socrates. What do you expect me to have done?

You reposted your logic, meaning you used the same logic as in your original post, right? If that's the case, why didn't you vote Socrates in your original post? That's the problem I have, and you've done nothing to refute that. It doesn't help that when you did vote, it was in the post directly following Unsight's vote, despite you supposedly thinking Unsight is scummy.

[Nikanor]

This game is getting stale. It doesn't help that there are a bajillion people on V/LA.
I don't care any more. If nobody is willing to lynch foilist today, I can only hope people will go for it once Socrates is dead.

Vote: Socrates.

[Nikanor]

Hi Blazez. Please don't get yourself modkilled in this game.
Can we just start lynching all the lurkers?

Preview: NOW you vote him, MS.

[Nikanor]

Vote: foilist.

I'm really glad this wagon is taking off.

1) I post initial logic against Socrates and wait for a response.

2) No decent response is given.

3) Nacho's claim comes up. I edit logic accordingly.

4) Still no good response from Socrates.

5) I restate logic and vote Socrates.

You "waited" for him to respond for about 15 hours. Overnight. So you can't use that as an excuse for waiting to vote him.

[Nikanor]

Furcolow, take a look at Battle Mage's other games. He does that a lot.

[Nikanor]

Teehee. Bye bye foilist~!

[Nikanor]

Three things:
1) I have a suspicion that Richard has read (or been told) that Robotnik was a major suspect on day one, and that's why he claimed. That means that him saying that he hasn't read the thread is off, because the only way that can be true is if someone told him last night that he was a suspect on day one (if my theory holds, anyway).
2) Dry-fit is coasting. The fact that he's made two posts and hasn't slapped a vote on Pomegranate yet is mucho scumlero, considering it only took him one post to vote Pom on the day that foilist-scum was lynched. If Unsight flips non-mafia, Dry-fit is probably mafia.
3) I agree with the sentiment that Ythan is probably scum in light of Furc's behaviour yesterday.

I'm waiting on a claim from Unsight.

[Nikanor]

Well that's awesome and all, but Unsight is still going to die by modkill for breaking rule 09. D:

[Nikanor]

Note to all: We should be hunting for Werewolves today. Bringing the scum down to even numbers will hopefully put pressure on them to cross-kill, which is what we really need right now, especially if the scum started with four members each.

vezo is town and Nacho is town. Certain revelations yesterday say that Midnight is probably town.
I think I can say with a fair degree of certainty that Ythan is mafia, thanks to Furc's actions, so he's off the table for today's lynch.
That leaves us with nine people (eight from my pov). At least three, possibly four of these people are werewolves, and at least one, possibly three are mafia:
#

Dr. Robotnik

RichardGHP
# Dry-fit
# Lowell
#

Parama

# Pomegranate
#

SerialClergyman

Tubby216

#

Super Smash Bros. Fan

#

Timeater Battle Mage BlazezRb

AGar

I doubt that Parama, tubby (from SC's play), or SSBF are scum, so I've placed them as green text.

Parama

,

Tubby216

,

Nachomamma8

, Pomegranate, Lowell, RichardGHP and

vezokpiraka

were all on the Unsight wagon yesterday, in that order. We didn't get a complete wagon because of the modkill, but out of those three non-green names, two are probably scum.
I have no problem starting with Pomegranate, as she's the biggest wagon right now.

Who said it was going to be hard to get town reads again? I'm finding it rather easy, but maybe that's just because I'm amazing.

Vote: Pomegranate.

[Nikanor]

I highly doubt we have four-man scum teams for both alignments. If we did, town would have lost already. I'm assuming we have three Werewolves and two Mafia's left. If we had four Werewolves and three Mafia's left, that means there would be seven scums to six townies and the Werewolves would have already won. Since the game is still going, I'm assuming we have eight townies and five scums left.

Wrong. If there is seven scum, there are a couple reasons why the game wouldn't be done yet. 1) A single scum team doesn't have the 50% needed to achieve their win condition, 2) It still needs to be determined whether the mafia or werewolves are the winners, and 3) It's still possible for town to win in such a scenario with cross-kills, even if it is unlikely.

And I don't disagree to finding Werewolves, as they are a threat to town, but we still need to be concerned about the Mafia. If we hit Mafia ToDay, we'll have three Werewolves, but only one Mafia left. If we have a scum crosskill, that will wipe out the scum faction and leaves the town with only two Werewolves. Prehaps it decreases the cross scum-kill possibility, but it's not impossible. Whereas killing a Werewolf and having a scum cross-kill will leave us with one Mafia and one Werewolf.

I considered this when writing my post, but again, there are a couple of reasons for why that's wrong. First, we don't know if there are two mafia or three, as I've stated above. If there are three left, lynching one would hardly help us. Second, while it would really put pressure on the mafia to cross-kill, the werewolves wouldn't be in such a position. They'd be able to take a death of a wolf and still be one member ahead of the mafia. The ideal situation is one in which the scums are killing each other.

[Nikanor]

Vote: Ythan.

Can someone tell me why we're lynching Lowell before the guy who replaced Furcolow?
And I don't see how Lowell is scum. He looks like regular old town-Lowell to me.

[Nikanor]

I could go for a Dry-Fit lynch, too, if nobody wants to lynch Ythan.

[Nikanor]

Prod-avoidance post.
I am busy this weekend and won't be able to get a real post in until Sunday.

[Nikanor]

Unvote, Vote: Dry-fit.

[Nikanor]

Unvote.

I wouldn't mind a mass-claim. I'll start it off if people agree with me.

[Nikanor]

If Dry-fit is telling the truth, we could have two confirmed townies. If Dry-fit is lying and there is no sorcerer, we lynch him. If Dry-fit is lying and his buddy backs him up, we'd get two scum when one gets shot by the opposing scumteam.
The same applies to the investigative roles we might have.

[Nikanor]

I think I understand.
Even though I didn't get a special invitation I'll still join the bandwagon.

Vote: tubby216.

[Nikanor]

Oh and that's L-1 if anyone cares.

[Nikanor]

Why haven't you claimed your targets yet, Dry-fit?

[Nikanor]

Dry-fit should claim his target from last night.
Ythan is still probably mafia. I'm more or less at a loss for who the wolves are, but we can figure that out tomorrow in mylo (balance-wise, there should be two wolves and only one mafia left).

Vote: Ythan.

[Nikanor]

I'm a townie as well.
Midnight can claim next.

[Nikanor]

Actually, screw it. I don't think Lowell is scum, I don't think

Nikanor

Parama is scum, and Vezok is confirmed town, so the scum are MS and Rich.

[Nikanor]

Ehhhh yeah. If Richard and Parama are both town, we've lost the game already. And I'm pretty sure that Parama is town, so.

Vote: RichardGHP.

[Nikanor]

It's four to lynch and you had two votes on Richard. I was saying that if Midnight and Lowell are scum, they could quickhammer and we'd lose anyway.

[Nikanor]

What Parama said.
Hey Parama, are you sure that there are only two scum left?

[Nikanor]

If you three are town, then that means....

[Nikanor]

Werewolf QT

Yaaaaaay~!
High five Parama!

How could you have sold us out, Ythan?

Richard: No comment.

[Nikanor]

Also, thanks for modding Michel! I can't imagine how you managed to get all those replacements, but thank you very much for all the effort you put in!

[Nikanor]

I think the main reason we won was because a) Parama and I were able to take the lead in lynching all of the scummy mafia, and b) everyone seemed to cement their reads right around Unsight's modkill and stopped scumhunting, which allowed us to coast to victory.

AGar, why didn't you just claim? As soon as you pointed to Pom's post (or, to me at least, when you voted tubby) you were obvdoc.
SSBF, I think you played a good game, and with more experience you have the potential to become an awesome player. Keep fighting the good fight and whatnot.
I don't think I have any comments for anyone that haven't been said already.