NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[CrashTextDummie]

Hi MBL! Hi PJ <3! Hi Yos, Shanba, and everyone else!

How could I resist a playerlist like that? :p

Will catch up at my earliest convenience, maybe tonight, probably tomorrow.

[CrashTextDummie]

Also, <33333 CrashTextDummie. Let me know who the scums are, please.

You are, admit it! I expected that welcome to be at least this long: <3333333333. :p

I'm starting my readthrough now, but I can already tell I won't be able to finish tonight. I'd appreciate it if you guys could refrain from lynching anyone until I do, kthxbai.

I'll do my analysis in 3 batches of 10ish pages.

[CrashTextDummie]

I read the first 10 pages and started writing a post, but it's getting very late and I can't keep my eyes open. I'll post it tomorrow along with the rest of my analysis, but here are the cliffnotes:

scum:
Meransiel
Yos2
DemonHybrid

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm late, but here's my view on the first 10 pages:

Meransiel

probably looks the worst to me at this point. The townslip/scum daytalk case made against him by Hydra is pretty compelling. I didn't mind his call for full neighbor claims per se, as it's not uncommon for inexperienced players to make mistakes like that. I

did

mind though that he didn't cease and desist once people started calling him on it. He spends the vast majority of his time defending himself and his scumhunting is crap. His attacks against MoI in particular was downright incoherent and I have a hard time believing a pro-town player would think along these lines.

----------------

Yos2

also bothered me a great deal. He spends a lot of time (and I do mean

a lot

) discussing mafia theory and uses a fair amount of craplogic in the process:

To use your phrasing from before, if the neighbors are town, would you agree with me that at least one of the people pushing the "one of the neighbors is scum, let's lynch neighbors" line of reasoning is probably scum?

This quote strikes me as largely hypocritical, as it uses the same kind of argument he's lambasting others for in one and the same sentence. Not to mention the fact that I didn't really notice anyone actually pushing a lynch on any neighbors at this point in time (only Saporovirus was voting a neighbor), so Yos' stance was moot anyway.

I also didn't like how he pretty much parked his vote on AGM during all of that. The harshness of his acusations against him ("I'm calling you scum right now") doesn't match up with how little he pushed the guy.

--------------

DemonHybrid

is the third guy that made an impression on my scumdar so far. I agree with MoI's assessment of his conduct towards kondi. I also thought his reasoning for his stance on Panama was inconsistent. He went from:

I'd be voting for Parama right now were it not for the fact that he was so willing to out the 3 of us.

to

I don't know. I have no reason to vote Parama right now whatsoever. He hasn't been remotely scummy.

in a very short period of time. The two quotes don't add up in my opinion.

There's other things minor things about him that rubbed me the wrong way, but this analysis is already getting long and I still have a lot to read. He's not at the top of the list at this point, but one player I'll keep a close eye on as I read on.

------------

I used to be able to read

PetroleumJelly

like a book, but then he pulled the wool over my eyes the last time we played against each other and now I can't trust him anymore. I think I'm feeling the paranoia already, as his reason to suspect Meransiel felt oddly reaching to me (particularly since there was a much better case to be made against him). The same goes for his stab at Parama. It's not enough to make him a serious suspect, but worth paying closer attention to him.

-------------

My strongest town read at this point is

Hydra

. His thoughts resonated the most strongly with mine and his aggressiveness in pursuing his top suspect made me feel very good about him. The same can be said about his treatment of the "hydra" issue in general and Sensfan in particular.

I also got early town vibes from

Parama

, who handled the whole neighborhood deal in a way that seemed unlikely to come from scum (particularly the kondi "townslip", even though I don't really agree with it). But I did notice the severe drop in activity that followed, which leaves a somewhat sour taste in the mouth. I realize he's currently on the verge of being lynched, so I'm interested in how his play will develop.

-------------

No one else left a lasting impression so far. I do have notes on saporovirus and earworm, but it's very minor stuff that doesn't seem worth posting.

-------------

Parts 2 & 3 to follow before the weekend is over.

[CrashTextDummie]

Read up to page 22 (D1 lynch). Thoughts:

Meransiel

is still on top of my scumlist. He was early on the AGM wagon and his reasoning for being there was absolutely terrible, as were some of his follow-up posts:

Yeah...he didn't facefuck as much as Sensfan in the Hydra thing, but...

But reading his ISO I realized just how low the chance of Mafia in the neighborhood would be if AGM would flip scum. So yeah, great info.

Vote: AGM

@Almaster: I explained why I have a null read on you, and why I have a town read on Yos.

I am voting a null read because it's not so null anymore, but that's not the main reason. I have come to buy the AGM case more recently, but as I said, the most important thing is that AGM's flip is extremely informative. This is a Large, so that's not the most suboptimal compromise ever.

Seriously, why wasn't he lynched? This on top of the stuff I've outlined in my last post, and it doesn't get much scummier.

-----------------

My opinion of

Yosarian2

didn't improve either. He was first on the AGM lynch, and used some terrible logic on the way.

The difference is, is that you are jumping to conclusions for no apparent reason, which is scummy since there's a possible scum motive for doing so and no obvious reason a townie would jump to that conclusion, while I am simply not coming to any conclusion on the subject without information.

His whole argument against AGM went roughly like this:
1. "I think it's likely the whole neighborhood is town since none of them seem suspicious to me."
2. "Scum are therefore likely to suggest there is one scum in the neighborhood."
3. "AGM is therefore scum."

It's

all

based on Yos2 jumping to conclusions. His attack feels very disingenuous.

He finished the day with this nice little damned if you do/damned if you don't:
AGM is scum for suggesting one scum amidst the (all-town, according to Yos) neighborhood, i.e. trying to secure a chain of lynches, but AGM is also scum for not pushing any of those lynches. Yos presents this as AGM "having it both ways", when it's actually Yos that's having it both ways. AGMs position was completely internally consistent while Yos' argument was not. Strong scum contender.

-----------------

DemonHybrid

has been a double-edged sword for the second half of D1. On one hand, he had a pretty decent string of analysis posts, which sounded reasonable enough to me from a pro-town perspective. On the other hand, he then refused to join the AGM wagon because of perceived opportunism among his wagoners, only to then jump on himself in opportunistic fashion.

------------------

All three of these players were on the AGM lynch. I'll eat my hat if not

at least

one of {Meransiel, Yosarian2, DemonHybrid} is scum.

------------------

My

PJnoia

continues. I may not have agreed with his case against Parama, but at least it started making more sense. On the other hand, I didn't like the extent of his tunneling. Egging on the AGM-wagon didn't help either. He's certainly not a top suspect at this point, but a suspect he is.

------------------

Hydra

remains my strongest town read. He was second on the AGM wagon, but that's the only blemish on his D1 play, and his reasoning for being there made sense to me. Almost everything about him screams town to me.

------------------

I used to be able to not only read PJ like a book, but MBL as well. He's changed up his posting habits some since he went on hiatus, but judging by Oldy Mafia, my meta on him is still valid. His post 487 strongly suggests MBL-town. Not only is it a much, much better argument than for example Yos', but it's also based on a legitimate piece of scumhunting and presented in a way that fits with his town-play. Remind me to look back at this post when I inevitably grow paranoid of him later on as I always do. My first impression of him has always proven to been right.

------------------

Parama

was mostly useless for the latter half of D1, and his MoI attack was terrible. And while his indignant attitude and expressions of boredom and laziness are stuff I've seen utilized by scum before, I still lean town on him, although I have to admit this has a lot to do with my read on DemonHybrid. I'll keep an eye on it.

------------------

earshot

seems reasonably inquisitive and interested in reading people. Judging players based on the quality of their cases against one of his town reads is... unorthodox, but I'll allow it as a legitimate means to scumhunt. He was on the AGM-wagon, but his placement there didn't really ring any alarm bells. Leaning town.

------------------

The rest of the players didn't really catch my interest one way or the other, but since this marks the end of D1, I feel compelled to write something about them for completeness' sake:

SnowWhite was a complete no-show, and

Mastin2

joined too late in the proceedings to get any real read on. Judgement is out for the time being.

I have few notes on

Icerint

in spite of his acceptable level of participation. I may have to reread him in ISO when I'm done.

saporovirus

is playing a very low-key game. About 10 contest-posts over the entirety of D1, and short ones at that. There's nothing in his play I found terribly objectionable (including his hammer), but his volume is borderline. No verdict.

Shanba

had even less posts of worth, and his AGM vote comes with a faint whiff of opportunism. But seeing how scummy some of his wagon buddies are, it doesn't worry me

too

much. Not terribly interesting.

I kind of ignored

kondi2424

since everyone treated him like a non-issue. For the record, I don't buy the "townslip" as clear evidence of his alignment. I might reread him in ISO when I'm up to speed.

[CrashTextDummie]

tldr: scumlist as of end of D1:

scum:
Meransiel
Yos2
DemonHybrid

leaning scum:
PJ

grey glob of goo:
Mastin2
Icerint
saporovirus
Shanba
kondi2424

leaning town:
earworm
Parama

town:
Hydra
MBL

3rd and final part of Analysis coming up.

[CrashTextDummie]

Finally caught up, apologies for the wait. These were tough 20 pages, a lot of my reads got turned on their heads. :/

--------------------------

Meransiel

is obviously off the table. He's no doubt he's a tracker and although I contemplated the possibility of a scum tracker, I don't find it likely at all. Most likely town. Strike one against my scum reads.

--------------------------

Aaaaaaaand I'm starting to get cold feet about

Yos2

as well. Points against him are him starting out today attacking both neighbors after spending the entirety of D1 hounding AGM with his crooked neighborhood argument. And his analysis post was weak as hell. He has

one

minor point against DH from early D1.

This is counterbalanced by the fact that he has defended himself well against the attacks brought against him, in my view. His explanations, much as I disagree with them, make sense and follow internal logic. His indignant tone upon being attacked strikes me as very typical of town-Yos, and I do agree with him that some of the attacks against him are under par (for example Mastin2's "weasel words" argument, or whatever he called it). And he has taken some stances that I doubt scum-Yos would take (his flipflopping on PJ in particular strikes me as counter-intuitive from a scum point of view). Lastly, the stirrings to get a wagon going on him these last couple of pages (Shanba's vote, to be precise, and to a lesser extent ToastyToast's attack) give me bad vibes.

All in all, I don't consider him a top suspect anymore. I was gonna drop him down to neutral, but writing this post has made me change my mind again. That analysis post of his was truly awful. Scummy.

------------------------------

At last, a read I still feel confident in.

DemonHybrid

is still scum. PJ was right on the money calling him skittish. After that, he had a dramatic drop in activity and now spends most of his energy quabbling with a confirmed innocent. His last post strikes me as very odd, considering he not so long ago unambiguously declared that playerslot town and Mastin's whole case against Parama bunk.

------------------------------

PJ

is a scumread I am not terribly sad to abandon. I got fairly strong town-vibes from his attacks against DH and Yos, as well as from the way he immediately jumped to strategic thinking once the three power-roles claimed. I liked the way he used his vote to poke at various players, which stood in stark contrast to what I perceived as tunneling on day 1. I'm not putting it past him to fool me, but he's well off the table for now.

------------------------------

Parama/Bowser is somewhat of a double-edged sword for me. Mastin's case against him has some merit, but is reaching in other areas. There was really only a small number of arguments I agreed with, but they are there. On the other hand, his posting on D2 reminded me a lot of how I felt back in my own flaking-days. Both his attitude and his posting of a half-finished analysis gave me out-of-it-town vibes. And I don't see anything particularly scummy in Bowser's posts so far.

I do like the make up of his wagon (two confirmed players, 3 of my strongest town-reads, plus Yos), it certainly doesn't feel scum-fueled. But the fact that the scum seemingly don't have any interest whatsoever to get a counterwagon going, plus the way sapporovirus danced on and off it (more on that later) gives me pause. Not a fan of this lynch.

-------------------------------

Saporovirus

pinged big-time on my scumdar on D2. Every single vote-hop on his part felt opportunistic. Behavior towards Parama particularly so. Seemingly no interest in getting reads on people, even when prompted (the height of his willingness to take a stance on Shanba was "not unreasonable"). Borderline lurking. This is pretty much textbook lazy-scum behavior.

-------------------------------

I have no reason to doubt that Icerint is town.

------------------------------

MBL remains a strong town-read. Posts like this or this fit the town-meta I have of him to a tee. Observant, inquisitive, level-headed. I'll buy a hat and eat it if he's scum.

-------------------------------

Shanba

is creeping up on my scumdar. His reaction to Mastin's fakeclaim felt off to me. When a town player blunders this obviously, scum are generally equally as likely to jump to their defense in hopes of looking good after the lynch than to vote opportunistically. I certainly didn't see any reason to be "fairly sure [Mastin] is town" at that point.

His openness to a lynch of my player-slot struck me as equally off, considering the last thing he had to say about hrezs was this. And lastly, I dislike his latest push against Yos. It doesn't feel like like honest suspicion to me, smells more like he's taking advantage of a perceived weakness in Yos' play. Scum candidate.

-------------------------------

I'm a bit short on suspects, which leads me to believe I am wrong about one of the following players:

Hydra

had a significant drop of activity on D2, and while I didn't notice anything objectionable, I didn't see him drop town-tells anymore either. I'm not terribly concerned, as my carry-over read is strong, but I'm allowing for the possibility that he's calculating scum.

earworm/Pine

- this was a a slight town-read on D1. So far, there have been

zero

contributions from this playerslot on D2. That's the kind of behavior that leads to disaster when left unchecked. Should definitely be pressured into posting content tomorrow, as it's either skating scum or a townie setting himself up to be mislynched down the line. I'm dropping them down to neutral.

ToastyToast

has been too passive for my taste. His (unappealing) vote is going no where, and he's not pushing it. His stance on Parama is confusing and opaque. And as mentioned, he's another reason I started doubting my Yos-read. Yes, there's the matter of the "townslip", which I will investigate once I'm done with this analysis. He remains neutral for the time being.

[CrashTextDummie]

tldr:

scum

:
DemonHybrid

leaning scum

:
killerjester
Shanba
Yos

neutral

:
Pine
ToastyToast

leaning town

:
Bowser
PJ
Hydra
MBL

confirmed town

:
Mastin
Meransiel
Icerint

Vote: DemonHybrid

[CrashTextDummie]

Couple of questions:

@ all neighbors

- what's going on in that quicktopic of yours?

@ ToastyToast

- what, if anything, does your role PM say about the alignment of your neighbors?

@ Shanba

- why did you express willingness to lynch my playerslot?

My contributions should be more frequent from here on out, except they won't be this weekend. I'm

V/LA from Friday until Sunday

. This means I will miss the deadline. I echo the calls for an extension, kind mod.

[CrashTextDummie]

I said I would be voting Parama, but instead I voted kondi early game. Parama looked townish off the bat since he was willing to out the 3 of us, kondi did not. I'm okay with early game neighbor pressure, as evidenced with Parama and I's pressure against kondi.

Lets recap:

Game starts. Kondi doesn't say a word, I would have voted Parama. Parama outs us; I vote Kondi, for being scummy in the QT as well as neighbor pressure.

Basically, I have never once found Parama as outwardly scummy.

It's a subtle inconsistency. The first quote heavily implies that you were a proponent of the "there's one scum among the neighborhood" line of thinking and upon kondi's "townslip" would have voted Parama immediately if he hadn't convinced you of his innocence.

The second quote demonstrates a different mindset: "Parama hasn't done anything scummy, so why would I want to vote him?"

It's not a huge strike against you but a decent enough tell for early D1.

And AGM's scummy posting in between those two posts has nothing to do with anything?

AGM's so-called "scummy posting" in between has everything to do with this. The timeline went like this:

DemonHybrid: "AGM is scummy but I don't like the opportunistic feel of his wagon" (post 430)
AGM: "I'm having trouble getting into this game, so let's start it off with a lurker vote" (post 443)
DemonHybrid: "ZOMG scum! I checked SnowWhite's site activity and she's not lurking at all! You're so busted!" (posts 444, 445, 448)

AGM's post that set you off was lazy at worst. There is no scummy intent (not that you even tried to demonstrate any). Your vote is a textbook example of opportunism, you jumped him at the drop of a dime over nothing serious at all.

Bowser's impromptu suspicion of Yos is weird, though, so I'm keeping an eye on that.

What do you mean by "my last post"? Point it out.

Bowser is ostensibly in the process of reading the game. There's nothing weird or "impromptu" about giving us an idea on where he stands in his read-through. It's a perfectly normal post to make.

I'm usually not one to make arguments for other people, but this is beyond stupid and reeks of confirmation bias on Mastin's part. It reeks of something else on your part.

----------------------

Please give us more details on your quick topic. Parama apparently posted analysis in it, was it the one he eventually posted in-thread as he wrote it? Did it feel to you like it was genuine and consistent as he posted it? What have ToastyToast's contributions to the quicktopic been? Bowser's? It feels to me like your reads of each other are largely governed by the fact that you are neighbors, but I can't follow the though process of any neighbor in this matter.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm glad the Bowser lynch went through. Seeing as I don't agree with Mastin2 on DH (he struck me as group scum, not SK), and I don't find two scum-neighbors very likely at all, it looks like I was on the wrong track yesterday.

Hydra: Your NK-speculation is useless bordering on dangerous. I'd greatly appreciate us not going down that road any further.

Killerjester has all but confirmed himself as scum of some flavor with his posts today. He has a serious hard-on for the SK, virtually all his thinking seems to center around that role. This is a

very

reliable scumtell in my book. Either he's group scum who spent all night SK-hunting or he's the SK himself. Most amusing is that he got SK-vibes off of DH for

not

SK-hunting, which is about the clearest possible indicator that he does not have the mindset of a pro-town player.

Either way I want him gone.

vote: killerjester

[CrashTextDummie]

Can we lynch the much-more-sure-to-be-scum Shanba instead of the ehh-he-kind-of-had-a-few-iffy-posts-but-he-makes-good-valid-points-especially-the-one-against-CTD killerjester?

What good valid point has killerjester made against me, pray tell?

[CrashTextDummie]

You are proposing a hypothetical in which you're scum. Good show.

I don't really care who the SK is at this point.

DIE, SCUM, DIE.

[CrashTextDummie]

Because I haven't read back yet to determine how the Bowser flip influences my reads on them. I think any wagon that isn't KJ right now is foolish since he basically claimed scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

DH:

You don't have to read back. Just read my post.

No thanks, that's not how I play.

Also, the fact that he even connected you to SK is the big point, really. Your play fits the bill (and especially Hresz's play; it's disconnected, jabbing, lurky and reactional).

1. baseless accusation =/= good, valid point
You are using this as an argument not to lynch him... why exactly?
2. How does my play fit the bill of SK?

-------------------

Shanba:

I asked you this question yesterday:

@ Shanba - why did you express willingness to lynch my playerslot?

You have now apparently eliminated me from the pool of suspects. Please elaborate.

------------------

MBL:

Does this fit your definition of "mealy-mouthed"?

Saporovirus pinged big-time on my scumdar on D2. Every single vote-hop on his part felt opportunistic. Behavior towards Parama particularly so. Seemingly no interest in getting reads on people, even when prompted (the height of his willingness to take a stance on Shanba was "not unreasonable"). Borderline lurking. This is pretty much textbook lazy-scum behavior.

If you're gonna dump a bunch of quotes on me, at least be thorough.

------------------

And (luckily) we still have a vig to shoot up our masked SK.

It goes without saying that this is a horribly scummy thing to say and that killerjester needs to die. With a vig in the mix, there is a significant chance that the SK has NK-immunity. Not to mention the blatant attempt to direct Iecerint away from targeting mafia suspects.

Everyone currently not voting killerjester needs to either rectify this or justify themselves in their next post. Killerjester has displayed a complete lack of pro-town thinking today, argued with a hypothetical that includes him as scum and has now shown a clear pro-scum-agenda with his vig directions. Cases don't get any more damning than this short of guilty investigations.

[CrashTextDummie]

ToastyToast, please answer this question:

@ ToastyToast - what, if anything, does your role PM say about the alignment of your neighbors?

Reading up on Shanba and Yos now.

[CrashTextDummie]

Either you are lying or your predecessor was.

Why are you not voting killerjester?

[CrashTextDummie]

Shanba fits as a Parama buddy. I don't consider the fact that he claimed a town-read on Parama a point against him, it resonates with my own read at the time, but his defense of Parama reached pretty far into making-excuses-for-him territory. His town-read on him was not convincing enough for me to really buy that he'd stick his neck this far out for him as a member of the uninformed majority.

Yos is not out of the question but is far less likely. His push against Parama does not give me bussing-vibes. It came very naturally and fit his thought process as he had laid it out, he held on to it unrelentingly and it came at a time when it didn't seem obvious that Parama would be the wagon du jour. I give no credence whatsoever to the "Bowser tried to bus Yos" line of thinking.

Parama made virtually no mention of either of these two player. This argues neither in favor nor against either scum-pair.

[CrashTextDummie]

Either you are lying or your predecessor was.

Why are you not voting killerjester?

Having mulled it over for a minute, I think there's no question that kondi was lying. I suppose an SK or even a second mafiate would get this same note, so each neighbor probably had it irregardless of alignment. I think DH also claimed something very similar (I don't have my notes with me).

Begs the question of why kondi was bullshitting. I'm gonna re-review the alleged townslip next.

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD, you missed a question. Mind answering, or at least telling me why you're choosing to ignore it?

I will humor you as a common courtesy.

I quite literally

do not care

who the SK is at this point. I am not going to draw a name from a hat for you.

Particularly

not for you.

[CrashTextDummie]

I am a bit flabbergasted that the Shanba wagon is leading the KJ wagon. I'll try to make my case on the latter more coherent then. It's probably gonna be stupidly long, please read it anyway.

Why killerjester is a better lynch than Shanba

:

Saporovirus was the first person to vote Parama for stated reasoning:

2. Parama's general "fuck off with your questions" attitude has been a bit strange. He could just be pissed off with the game but it's been going on for a while.

This has the distinct smell of a weak distancing vote designed not to stick, and maybe to get a scumbuddy to take it up a notch. "A bit strange" is pretty much the opposite of a rousing suspicion. And indeed she did take his vote off after this little exchange:

Paramalynch is good. DH has been messing w/ my scum read on him lately. However I am kind of going to refresh my read of petroleumjelly now.

saporo why do you think I'm scummy again? Early game you said I was townish, and I don't really see much more from you while skimming your ISO.

And FFS guys I'm reading now, don't lynch me before I can give you all content that you ever wanted and then some.

unvote

I noticed that you and DemonHybrid would do similar things in your play, and twice you both voted exactly the same way, except that DemonHybrid voted after you did, IIRC. Initially it was the kondivote, which came from n0 neighbor talk and thus made sense, but then you both switched from kondi to Hydra. At the time, I was ascribing a town motivation to you and a scum motivation to DH for this strange pattern. I was particularly hung up about the "makes sense, I did that once as a baby town" thing- it seemed like an over-explanation. Unimpressive to me, as well, was his constant dodging when pressure was on him. But his play late d1 and today seems much more helpful, whereas your attitude throughout has been sort of strange, because you don't seem to be wanting to put much effort in at all. Furthermore, I'm going at this with the bias that there simply can't be a 3 town neighborhood.

I am willing to wait for your amazing content though.

Note that these were back to back to back.
Abbreviated version:
Saporo: "Paramalynch is good." Parama: "Wut?" Saporo: "Nevermind."

If nothing else, this confirms that saporo was on Parama for the weakest of reasons. It also reads to me like scumbuddy frustration from Parama's end.

For the next couple of pages, saporo was among the most frequent posters and did

nothing

with her vote (she mostly spent her time dabbling with PJ). There was a noticeable lack of counter-wagon to the one on Parama. At the first whiff of another wagon forming (on myself), saporo was there:

I am down for the Hrezs wagon. His posts of content have mainly been things others have already argued aaaand flakiness.

vote: Hrezs

PJ: You're killing me.

Note the last sentence: PJ had unvote Hrezs in the post before that. Saporovirus was desperate for a counterwagon and votes Hrezs even though this contradicted her only previous mention of Hrezs.

Iecerint pointed this out. Saporo's excuse?

Wasn't paying attention to him yesterday.

Is too early to kill a parama.

Deflection ahoy.

16 posts later, the counterwagon not having taken off, she puts Parama at L-1.

Her last action of the game was to take her vote off again, ostensibly at my request.

---------------------------

Killerjester replaced in and immediately went for the Parama/Bowser playerslot. This, to me, is null. I don't doubt scum would go for the bus here in his shoes, but it could just as well be an accurate read from a pro-town player, as it was a reasonably articulated suspicion.

Day 3 is where Killerjester showed his scum feathers:

He started the day off speculating about the SK in response to Mastin's theory:

I don't think Demon is the SK. Yos maybe, CTD is also a likely candidate. Can you explain why you're so confident in your 1-1-1 theory of the neighbors?

And, naturally, I'm confident I'm town.

This is a scumtell I find very reliable (the "SK-hardon"). I might as well elaborate on this here (it's pertinent to some of the following arguments):
A pro-town player has no real reason to SK-hunt at this point in the game. SK's are generally a lot harder to catch than group-scum, their tells tend to be a lot more subtle and there are no connections to call them on. Of course, it's possible to nail an SK, but it's usually done with universal scumtells that apply to both SK and mafia (like fabricated reads or opportunistic voting). I see no pro-town reason whatsoever for KJ to concentrate on this aspect of Mastin's scumlist at the expense of anything else that isn't related to him, particularly not on the back of the first scum-lynch in this game.

Anti-town reasons for this kind of speculations:
A) The only scumhunting the scum are doing is against the SK. There is a tangible benefit to them exchanging their thoughts on this with pro-town players, and it seems likely to me that an inexperienced player such as KJ would dive into this discussion if it was a hot topic during scum night-talk
B) SKs themselves are also prone to this kind of posting, it's a sign of overt self-awareness of their role and play

His next post was SK-centric as well, but he did drop down a vote on Shanba for stated reasoning:

The scum connection is blatantly obvious.

This is a vote he lined up the day before, and that's the extent of what he had to say about Shanba up to that point.

He justified this thusly:

Of course I'd vote Shanba. It was between you and him in my mind for this day. I'm more confident about you being town now that Bowser's flipped scum, as I've said before I think there was only one scum in the neighbors. That leaves Shanba. Does KJ-logic make sense?

It's a logical fallacy: "I narrowed it down to those two players and it's not the one, so it's got to be the other!" when there was no discernible reason to narrow it down to those two players to begin with.

Then followed another huge post speculating on the identity of the SK. When attacked, he claimed that he was merely talking about the SK because MBL had asked him about the SK. This is not accurate: MBL had asked him specifically about his DH read, not his SK-theories. And yet KJ took this opportunity to muse about the viability of CTD-SK and Yos-SK in great detail.

But I'll humor you. Who do you think the serial killer is if I flip group scum/town?

This is a big one. Not only is his inquiry completely nonsensical for reasons stated above (and one explained later), it is also one that no pro-town player would

ever

make. It goes completely against any pro-town thinking to make hypotheticals with yourself as scum and defeats the purpose of any and all attached questions. He's supposed to know he's town, so why would he be interested in this answer? Because he's scum. I don't understand how he hasn't been strung up for this bona-fide scumslip.

Nonsensical justification:

No, I was trying to get my SK read (you) to stick to one target so that if you're dodgy about it later, y'know cos the target won't actually flip SK, we'd call you out on it easy.

But you're being dodgy now, soo....you should know that as town-CTD you stand to lose nothing from this little bet of mine. Now are you going to straighten up like a good little soldier?

So he wanted to lay a trap, I suppose, to catch SK-CTD making a wrong SK-prediction, to prove... what exactly?

Next glaring scumtell, directing the vig to aim for the SK:

EBWOP: Also was thinking this, but forgot to mention. Scum-Shanba is bussing Pine pretty hard, and I'd look to lynch him before Hydra, if not also before Yos2. And (luckily) we still have a vig to shoot up our masked SK.

1. We want the vig to kill mafia (number's game)
2. The vig has a higher chance to vig mafia, as they're easier to catch (as outlined before)
3. The SK has a high potential to be NK-Immune

This post is therefore pro-mafia, anti-town and SK-neutral. Also take note of the Pine-bussing argument. There's virtually no basis for it; "my top-suspect is attacking someone I've never mentioned before - obvious bus!" - how is this the thinking of a pro-town player?

His defense for this is god-awful:

I am hunting the scum, in fact I've got a list of names lined right up. AND my vote is on my top scumspect. So you can throw your whole pro-scum-agenda out the window. I've taken it a step further because I know there's a serial killer around and time to kill while everyone gets their votes on Shanba. Even if he (the SK) NK-immune, all we need is Iecerint's word "I'm targeting so-and-so tonight, because I think I've found the SK," and if they're alive in the morning then we'd know that 1. The SK is NK-immune, and 2. The person the vig shot at is the SK. There's nothing wrong about suggesting the vig try to take out the SK. In fact... I'm really finding how much you condemn the idea, and consistently stress that the REAL threat in this town in the mafia comes more from the perspective of an SK trying to cover his own damn hide.

So now he wants the vig to announce beforehand who he's going to vig, opening him way the fuck up for any kind of scum-PR shenanigans. His reasoning is appalling, you virtually never want your confirmed power roles to telegraph their actions. Note also how he underhandedly tries to turn this argument against me: "you want the vig to kill mafia, that means you're the SK!"

The rest is pointless theory discussion with David Xanathos (hi, btw!), which I might comment on after I answer to Yos.

-----------------------------

I am not saying that the Shanba wagon doesn't have merit, it does. I'm saying that KJ is 100% scum. I can't say if he's bussing Shanba, but it's possible that he's not. Please switch your vote to KJ.

[CrashTextDummie]

Yosarian2:

You don't have much of a case against me. I was wrong about Parama; I have acknowledged this and accept it as a point against me. Everything else you write is crap.

CTD opposed the wagon all day, while pushing wagons like DH (who could theoretically be SK, but is certainly not on the scum team with his neighbor Para at this point).

D2 started on July 6th.
I replaced in on July 13th.
I started analyzing the game on July 15th, and finished on July 22nd
I was on announced V/LA from July 22nd until July 24th, which marked the lynch of Bowser

While you could construe a case that I was opposing the Parama-wagon "all day", as I indeed read him as town throughout all of my analysis, I certainly didn't "push other wagons".

Post 5, he keeps pushing the same bad suspects,(...) which, considering he's talking about 3 people who are not scum, is a pretty damn scummy thing to push.

Two things about this:
1. You've seen me replace into games before, therefore you're no stranger to the way I analyse a game as I come in. You know full well that all 3 parts of my analysis are just that - parts of

the same analysis

. There is no continued push. I didn't push

anything

but the final scumlist. Your choice of words is disingenuous.
2. One flipped town in a list of 3 suspects does not make that scum list "pretty damn scummy"

By post 6 and 7, he could no longer push the Meran lynch for obvious reasons(...)

This perfectly illustrates the problem with your use of words.
a) I never pushed a Meran lynch to begin with
b) You are painting my read in a scummy light ("could no longer push"), completely disregarding the fact that it makes perfect sense for me from a pro-town standpoint to abandon my Meransiel suspicion upon learning that he was a tracker

[he said] neutral-ish things about Para in his post #6 and then [put] him in his "leaning town" list in post 7, which I think by this point was a pretty unjustified position to take.

His placement as "leaning town" was in large parts based on a strong town-vibe I got from him in the early goings, and the fact that he was a neighbor to my top suspect. I communicated this very clearly.

I really can't see CTD being town at all at this point, (...)

Based on

that

case? To say that you're overstating would be putting it mildly.

[CrashTextDummie]

Way to ignore the entire bulk of my post, DX.

[CrashTextDummie]

You know full well it's more then "one flipped town". DH really can't be in the same scumgroup as Para, which means that he's either town or effectively so.

You're reaching awfully far in your attempt to make this poor argument work. If DH is the SK, he is most certainly

not

"effectively town". And while it's very unlikely that he's scum with Parama, it's not entirely out of the question.

Looking at day 2, you simply look more like a Para buddy then anyone else in the game does.

Unsubstantiated libel. You haven't even commented on the majority of players today.

What it looks like to me is you were using wishy-washing words in your post, to try to not link yourself so obviously to Para, but then in your list you left him as town, because you wanted to push people in that direction.

Of course I wanted to push people in that direction, I thought he was a bad lynch. Your accusation of whishy-washiness is simply not true, my stance on Parama was clearly articulated and reasoned. There was nothing in his later play (end of D1 and D2) that struck me as terribly indicative of his alignment and hence I didn't comment in the strongest of terms, but then again his placement on my scumlist was

not based on his later play

like you insinuate. I'll have some more to say about wishy-washy words in a moment...

You look like Para's buddy. You've consistently pushed bad wagons all game, defended scum, and made bad votes all game, and it looks like you've done it in a tactical way to me.

Arugment from Repetition. Your case against me is part unsubstantiated crap, part misrepresentation of facts, and it doesn't get better just because you repeat yourself. You have not explained why you think I look like a buddy to Parama beyond the fact that he was on my townlist, you certainly have not explained why that makes me a more likely buddy than some other people (Shanba, KJ) and you have not presented a shred of evidence that I was acting "in a tactical way".

Just to be clear, my "bad votes" extend to my current one as well, right? I just skimmed your ISO for mentions of Saporovirus/Killerjester:

SV seems town-ish to me right now. Stuff like where on day 1 she questioned DH about the Kondi thing, and when he answered, she unvoted him based on his answers feels honestly town to me.

5. saporovirus: Not really a fan of her day 1 play. I like that she defended me against PJ on day 2, heh. (Ok, it's hard for me to be unbiased about this, but that defensive posts feels town-ish to me).

[...]

Null: Hydra, MBL, saporovirus

Eh. Her content was thin, so it's hard to say anything for sure, but I don't think it's all that likely that she was scum with Para. This looks like an honest attack to me:

unvote

vote: parama

Reasoning?

1. I am still not liking how you both jumped on the Hydra wagon after kondi "townslipped," but your play towards the end of D1 struck me as somewhat less scummy. I have to go back and re-read it to figure out why I thought so.

2. Parama's general "fuck off with your questions" attitude has been a bit strange. He could just be pissed off with the game but it's been going on for a while.

3. One of you 3 is scum and it's not kondi and it's probably not you.

She did get off the para wagon for a while at one point after this, but, meh. This doesn't really look like distancing to me.

And you accuse

me

of being wishy-washy.

I'll address KJ later today, I gotta run.

[CrashTextDummie]

Good morning, everyone.

Killerjester is full of shit.

confirm vote

[CrashTextDummie]

Killerjester is not a doctor. This is a counterclaim.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hi, sorry for getting up late, had a busy weekend.

I have several issues with David Xanatos' claim:
1. He gave no indication at all yesterday that he had a guilty on MBL. I don't really buy his argument that he "didn't want to make the town choose between a guilty investigation and a counterclaimed doc", because why the hell not? Choosing between scum and scum is a win/win situation with no real downside. I also have trouble believing that he felt no threat of being nightkilled. The SK was a completely unknown factor at that point.
2. The fact that he claims to have been roleblocked. I see no reason why the scum would roleblock David X when they had the opportunity to kill Iecerint instead.
3. Game balance: alien + 2 neighbors + tracker + vig + innocent child + doc + cop seems overkill to me, even with an SK in the mix and potential scum power roles.

Having said that, I do feel the need to reread both playerslots, as the strong town-read I have on MBL may be clouding my judgement.

---------------------

I haven't really thought about the implications of David X's claim for Hydra and Yosarian yet, but on a first glace, I feel that Hydra has handled today more like I'd expect from town than Yos.

---------------------

Here's a couple questions I'd like answered:
Xanatos - it appears to me that you didn't realize I was counter-claiming killerjester in Post 1210. Is that accurate?
MBL - why haven't you claimed yet?
Yosarian - how certain are you that your vote is on scum?

[CrashTextDummie]

Xanatos, I'm trying to figure out when you were planning to post that claim you allegedly drafted up. I believe this is the subtle MBL-breadcrumb you claim to have planted before going to bed. Yet when you "slept over it", you went into a discussion with Yos about hammering Shanba and pressure on myself instead of claiming. Did you want to post it after that? Or were you sidetracked by the Yos questioning?

[CrashTextDummie]

Also, please explain why you didn't want to make us decide between a KJ and an MBL lynch. I kind of skimmed over the following quote while reading the last 3ish pages, but on second glance, your logic here doesn't follow at all:

Careless? By NOT exposing myself after there was a Doc counterclaim?

If I had revealed myself, I'd have been NKed almost instantly I presume, and Town would have had to decide whether to lynch KJ for his counter-claimed Doc or MBL for my guilty read. This way, I got a second shot at a read, and I targetted Yos.

With two claimed docs, there was actually no chance of you being NKed if you had claimed and were telling the truth. Lynch MBL, both claimed docs are instructed to protect Xanatos, coordinate night action with Iece seems like a clear optimal play from your alleged point of view, that you would have had no problem convincing town to follow (if MBL = town, Iece vigs Xanatos, doc dilemma gets solved the next day). Instead you went for a play that held the risk of you getting nightkilled (thus not being able to communicate your result) with no added benefit at all. It doesn't add up.

[CrashTextDummie]

I've done some rereading and I remain unconvinced of Xanatos claim. I have two main problems right now:

1. Most of what I heard in defense of it, from Xanatos and Yos, is "why would I/he do [this] as scum?", and the arguments that came in the form of "this is why I did [this] as town" crumble under scrutiny. I really don't care for that first line of reasoning - I don't know what roles the scum are playing with, I don't know who they all are and I therefore can't divine what purposes scum-Xanatos would have for his antics. For all I know, he could just be fucking with us because his team is thoroughly outconfirmed. I'm not gonna dismiss a play that doesn't make sense for a town player to make, just because on the surface, it doesn't make sense for scum either.
2. Ever since he claimed, Xanatos has almost exclusively argued in defense of himself, why he should be trusted, why lynching him would be bad, he's thrown everything but the kitchen sink, really, concocting theories so nonsensical and poorly reasoned that I find it very difficult to believe that even an inexperienced player would suggest them in earnest. The one thing he hasn't done is present any kind of case against MBL beyond "he's guilty". This is a point against him that not only applies to his D3 play (where he barely mentioned him despite allegedly having a result on him), but today as well in my opinion. He has acknowledged that his claim goes against the town-read the majority of players have had on MBL, and yet he does nothing at all to try to convince us of MBL's guilt beyond giving us his word and repeated pledges of his upstanding nature. What I would expect from a pro-town player in his position would be a case

against MBL

, not for own innocence. It feels incredibly counter-intuitive for him to go into complete defense-mode when he should be driving an attack.

I'm about ready to lynch him, but I want to adress some Yos related stuff before dropping my vote. And I do want MBL to claim before all is said and done.

[CrashTextDummie]

And as I said, I wanted to try and get MBL to dig a hole for himself with a claim. Anything that didn't fall under a role that would carry a gun would instantly confirm him as Scum.

If this were at all true, that you consciously concealed the true nature of your role in an attempt to trap MBL, why does the draft of your roleclaim, allegedly written to be posted yesterday, clearly state that you are a Gunsmith? You are flailing, IMO.

[CrashTextDummie]

The result you got on MBL was "guilty"? Not "has a gun"?

[CrashTextDummie]

No, not semantics. Your whole argument that you tried to "trap" MBL hinges on the fact that "has a gun" and "guilty" are

not

interchangeable, and the whole point of that post was to evaluate the exact wording of what you claim to have gotten vs. what one would expect to get. It's pretty evident that you mixed up your fake-claims just now.

vote: David Xanatos

Iecerint, please shoot Yosarian.

[CrashTextDummie]

unvote

[CrashTextDummie]

I still think Xanatos is flailing scum. I don't see any way his claim of ambiguity in the mod communication could be true, seeing as he settled on having received "has a gun" when called on his slip, which would have been really cut and dry if true. He's obviously squirming, changing his story every half page. And the only thing I'd consider unsportsmanlike behavior on the last page are the personal attacks against DemonHybrid.

vote: David Xanatos

[CrashTextDummie]

Yos, I do NOT appreciate being called a moron for voting a player who's so obviously lying his ass off even the fucking blind can see it. A gunsmith gets "has a gun"/"doesn't have a gun", NOT "guilty"/"innocent", THAT does not make any sense. It's the whole point of the fucking role. Xanatos is asking me to believe that the mod fucked up in his role PM when the obvious solution to this mystery is that he simply forgot that he fakeclaimed gunsmith, not cop, when he made that post.

I will not accept an MBL lynch today. A DX/Yos/Hydra scumteam wins outright if they either have a roleblocker or if Xanatos has NK-immunity. And seriously, stop with the browbeating and the insults.

[CrashTextDummie]

And an MBL/Yos/Hydra scumteam wins instantly, I can spin the Wine too.

Except no one in that hypo-scumteam is trying to force a lynch on you by gambitting.

The only difference is when I get lynched if I'm Scum. If I was in a 3 man scumteam, why would I have come out with a claim, because I wasn't suspected.

If there were 3 Scum versus 5 townies, that means all Scum need are 2 votes on a Townie and they can hammer and win, all by themselves. There would be no logic in claiming at all today, because you could literally just sit back and wait for 2 Townies to stack up on another, and jump on the wagon.

It was pretty obvious that you and Yos were first in line to be lynched/vigged. Both neighbors agreed on this plan, and both Iecerint and myself had expressed strong town reads on MBL and Hydra previously.

[CrashTextDummie]

Again with the browbeating.

I did not demand you make a case against him, I noted that you not making a case against him was scummy in my eyes. By the time I read it, you had already screwed up with the "guilty/"has a gun" post, so suffice it to say that it didn't sway me.

[CrashTextDummie]

I feel like this conversation between Iece and Xanatos is going over my head. A post in which he says he doesn't think the poison kill is from an SK is where it clicked for him that the SK had poison? Maybe I'm not reading it correctly.

This is the post in question:

It would be revealed when he doesn't take the shot though. Better to know our own resources. Out of 18, I'd wager there's either 4 or 5 mafia.. with an SK, I'm inclined to say 4. That means there are still 3 out there..

Also.. I think I know why it's an instant poisoner rather than a shot from the SK... but I'll need to read up on something.

[CrashTextDummie]

Oh, I think I see it now. It's supposed to mean: "why the SK has instant poison instead of a shot"

I'm gonna have to reread the context of this post.

[CrashTextDummie]

I realize now why this has me confused. At the time, I thought he was just pointlessly and somewhat nonsensically discussing theory. From his Iso #3:

Also, I'm curious.. how did people come to the conclusion that there's an SK? There looks to be a poisoner (Although I've never seen a poisoner who takes instant action..) and a Mafia NK, given the lack of a second NK N2, why are people thinking SK over Vig?

I read his Iso #14 as a continuation of that thought, that he didn't think the poison kill came from an SK, but rather from a poisoner.

Still reading.

[CrashTextDummie]

Right. Hydra would have had ample chance to hammer by now, so the risk of a DX/Yos/Hydra scum-team is out the window. And I do have to admit that Xanatos Iso #14 is very convincing. I'm ready to drop the hammer pending an answer from the mod to Xanatos' question. Yos' suggested night actions look solid to me.

[CrashTextDummie]

DH, do you think Yosarian is more likely scum with MBL than Hydra?

It might be benefitial to massclaim today, just to make sure we have the whole picture here. Though I doubt there is any town power left, it doesn't hurt to be thorough.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hms. I was under the impression this was a DX/Yos vs. MBL/Hydra thing.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hydra, I went over this. The only way this lynch could end in a direct loss is if you yourself are scum. And you're not hammering.

unvote, vote: MBL

Vig Hydra.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, I wish you would have announced this yesterday, or not at all. It would have made my decision on who to protect a no-brainer.

I went with Iecerint over Xanatos in spite of what I told Yos because vigs win endgames and gunsmiths don't. And I figured there was a non-trivial chance of mafia having a godfather type.

I need to reread certain portions of the game in light of MBL-scum, since the assumption that MBL = town pretty much set the cornerstone of how I viewed gamestate. Should get it done by tonight.

[CrashTextDummie]

There are not 3 scum left, otherwise the game would be over, so I'm not sure what you're getting at.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hi, I apologize for my recent absence, I should have announced V/LA. I will remain strapped for time until Monday.

I haven't found the time yet to reread the things I wanted to, but I did take another look at how yesterday went down and I've skimmed the most recent couple of pages.

First thing's first: A Hydra/Yos tag team could have quicklynched DX yesterday. Since I very seriously doubt a second scum in the neighborhood, I don't think DH is scum with either one of Yos/Hydra. And Toasty is 100% confirmed in my eyes; not only is he a neighbor, he could have quicklynched with either one of Yos/Hydra yesterday. In all likelyhood, we're looking at one scum left between Yos and Hydra.

I'm hesitant to base this decision on yesterday's play, despite my earlier feeling that we were dealing with a MBL/Hydra vs. DX/Yos situation. I mentioned yesterday that Hydra's push against Yos made sense to me from a pro-town perspective, and this still holds true even with the knowledge that MBL was scum. I was convinced DX was lying scum until the flavor breadcrumb was brought up. From Hydra's alleged point of view, Yos was the safe play. Of course, Yos does have a point that Hydra's play made a lot of sense from a scum PoV as well. Although I'm not sure lynching Yos would have been the optimal play for a Hydra-MBL scumteam (even with a roleblocker, there was probably too much town power left for them to handle), Hydra was in a position to switch back to DX at any point if he came into hammer range.

One thing that struck me as distinctly pro-town yesterday is the way Hydra panicked and scrambled immediately before and after MBL was hammered. It resonates with how I felt way back in LML's "New C9" game, where I had a similar moment of panic when I suddenly thought I saw a conspiracy to get someone lynched (who turned out to be scum as well). Sure, this kind of stuff can be faked by good scum, but it fit with his thought process throughout the day and I don't see why he'd put on this kind of a charade if he had just lost his final scumbuddy.

The fact that Yos pushed to get MBL lynched so tenaciously is certainly a point in his favor. If he's scum, he set himself up for an incredibly up-hill battle by bussing his roleblocker. On the other hand, I think a Yos/MBL-scumteam was pretty much boned with the guilty-claim, since Yos was first in line on the vig/lynch list and if he had been on the DX-lynch, I think the game would have ended rather predictably.

As for today, I feel Yos' case against Hydra is fairly one-note ("you pushed against a scum-lynch" being the only point that carries true weight) whereas Hydra's case against Yos looks more nuanced and comprehensive to me. That's just based on an quick initial read, so I may be doing one or both of them an injustice. One thing that does concern me a whole lot is the fact that Yos is trying to cast doubt on my claim at every possible junction, which indicates an endgame-agenda to me.

On the whole, I don't think it matters all that much in which order we lynch these two, but I lean towards Yos as the faster way to end the game. Will try to check in over the weekend and will reread more after Monday.

[CrashTextDummie]

Yos, I'm aware of the fact that my scumhunting was below par this game. But if you flip scum, I won't beat myself up over it.

One thing I wanted to point out that I forgot:
As I said previously, I would have preferred it if Iecerint hadn't announced why there was no kill from him last night. It would have left the scum guessing (missed another deadline? decided not to shoot? out of shots?), which is always preferable. I see speculation on this as detrimental at best and scummy at worst. I know Yosarian is guilty of this because it was a point of discussion on this page, but I'd have to read back to see who else engaged in this kind of speculation.

[CrashTextDummie]

It was a mistake on my part to point out that you couldn't be scum with Hydra, because it's not accurate. When Hydra came up scum and the game didn't end, I took a closer look at the time stamps:

The window to quicklynch was open from the time I voted Xanatos (August 9th, 10:22 AM my timezone) until DH unvoted him (August 10th, 2:52 AM).

During this time period, Yosarian made only 4 posts sitewide, between 1:11 PM and 1:37 PM, August 9th. Thor665 made 16 posts, between 5:08 PM and 8:02 PM, August 9th. Magister Ludi made 8 posts, between 6:38 PM on the 9th and 2 AM on the 10th. Yosarian simply wasn't online at the right time to facilitate the quicklynch.

Yos is the last scum. Toasty was online at the same time as Ludi, not that there is any reason to suspect him anyway. Iecerint has been confirmed since D2.

if anyone re-reads that day, they should have no doubt that with it being lynch or lose, that if me and Hydra had been scum together, that we could quite easily have lynched Xantos and ended the game.

Quite the opposite. The lynch pool had 4 people, 3 of which were scum with the odd man out having a guilty on another. Obviously you're not all gonna converge on Xanatos. No, you spread out evenly, one on Xanatos, one on MBL and one just hovering around. That way, you could wait for the quicklynch opportunity without drawing attention to yourselves.

It makes sense, though. So far we've lynched 3 scum, and in every single one of those cases, he did everything he could to protect them. He defended and protected Parama, he defended MBL and tried to lynch Xantos two days ago, and he defended Hydra and tried to lynch me yesterday. Really everything he's done this game has been an attempt to achieve the scum win condition.

The only thing that reflects badly on me is the wrong read on Parama. Looking back, I want to slap myself for that one. Coming into D4, Xanatos' claim contradicted pretty much every read I had, and I reacted accordingly. I was swayed by in-thread evidence, as was everyone else (not named Yos). Yesterday, I was leaning towards Yos-scum instead of Hydra-scum. I was under the wrongful impression that there was only one scum left between the two of you, you've done a good job bussing.

And the rolecop argument is still bullshit, just like it was when you first tried to plant it on D4.

I protected Iecerint again, if it matters.

I have free time over the weekend, and will make a more comprehensive case against Yos. I wish we would have lynched him yesterday so this could have been avoided.

[CrashTextDummie]

That Yos would try to take advantage of the fact that I cleared him when it was verifiably wrong to do so says it all, IMO.

vote: Yos

More later.

[CrashTextDummie]

If all three of you had voted Xanatos, he sure as hell wouldn't have been lynched. Hydra already got skittish with just him and MBL out of the scum team on Xanatos. We knew that 2 or 3 players out of the group of Xanatos/Yos/MBL/Hydra were scum and you had to be careful not to jump the gun and tip the scales.

You didn't do jackshit to save Xanatos, he did it himself by pointing out a breadcrumb. if anything, you made it appear that he was actually scum with you the way you insisted he was obv town when he damn sure wasn't.

[CrashTextDummie]

And of course the specific window of time is relevant. You claim to be cleared because you could have quicklynched with Hydra and I demonstrated that you're full of shit.

[CrashTextDummie]

He was clearly town. There was no way his play could have made sense as a scum gambit at all. I pointed this out any number of times, and you ignored all the logic. Also, you tried to use such minor points as "a mod would never give a gunsmith a guilty" to try to mislynch Xantos, even though I'm sure you must have seen mods do that before:

I have not, and I still think the guilty/has a gun thing was a glaring mod-error. It's not a "minor point", it's the one point that convinced me of his guilt. And I didn't ignore any logic, because there was none in his play until he pointed out the breadcrumb.

Besides that, Hydra unvoted Xantos to vote for me, in a situation where I very well could have been lynched. The scum's only goal that day would have been to lynch town, any town; if they did that they won. It's completely clear that Hydra didn't really care if I was lynched or if Xantos was lynched, because we were both town.

Apart from Hydra, there was no push whatsoever to lynch outside of MBL/Xanatos. Not only were you not in danger of getting lynched, he couldn't have placed his vote on any other town member because they were all cleared.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm not going to respond to everything point by point, because your case is rather repetitive.

1. Argument: I protected 3 scum.
This is true, and I've already said my Mea Culpa with regards to Parama. MBL and Hydra played one heck of a day game and pretty much fooled everyone except their scumbuddy Yos. Of course, the interactions between Yos, who I did suspect for the majority of the game, with the rest of the scum added to my faulty reads on MBL and Hydra.

2. Argument: I "was sure I was going to get Xanatos lynched"
I'm not even sure what I'm accused of here, and this is one of his major points against me. I thought he was scum for the majority of the game and did my damnest to get him lynched. This is par for the course in every game I play.

Inaccuracies and outright lies:

Note here he says "vig hydra", probably because Icereant had already said he would. But notice that the next day, he is trying to defend hydra and lynch me instead.

Iecerint said nothing of the sort. He only stated ambivalence about you, irregardless of MBL's alignment. I changed my mind on the two of you yesterday because I realized the MBL/Hydra vs. DX/Yos standoff was in all likelyhood staged by the scum and not set in stone as I had thought when I realized DX was telling the truth. The fact that you're also scum helped.

Also, note that before the end of the day here, I tell him to doc-protect Xanatos, and he agrees. And yet, Xanatos is nightkilled. The scum never would have tried that if they actually thought he was going to be protecting David; that clearly points towards CTD being scum. So not only did CTD not protect Xanatos, it looks like the scum *knew* that he wasn't going to protect Xanatos, or they never would have risked killing him; one doc protection puts us on odd numbers and gives the town another lynch.

Not only did you not tell me to doc-protect Xanatos, you told me to flip a coin and then acted as if I should have been able to protect two players at once.

The fact of the matter is that a vig would have forced a victory. Vig Hydra, Xanatos/DH/Toasty dies, 5 alive, one scum left. No lynch. Vig Yos, DH/Toasty/Xanatos dies. In this case, it would have been game over, but even if I were scum, I could have still been lynched/vigged me at this point with 3 alive. I realized this, and protected Iecerint that night. That he was out of shots is something I could not have anticipated. I was following a guaranteed winning strategy for the town and would have been committing suicide if I was scum. At no point could I have killed Iecerint without giving myself away.

You on the other hand were screwed either way. You were severely outconfirmed. With Iece alive, you lose to the strategy I just outlined. With Xanatos alive, one of you gets lynched and the other investigated guilty. With both alive, you're screwed twice over. At least with Xanatos dead, you don't lose immediately.

False. Demon had just voted for me, after the guilty; and Toasty had just implied he thought I was scum as well. Only after that did Hydra push to lynch me.

Fair enough, I misremembered. That still doesn't change the fact that Hydra had no good place to put his vote if he didn't want it on DX. And I think it's obvious why your scumteam would have preferred to get you lynched instead of the roleblocker.

[CrashTextDummie]

By the way, the winning strategy I outlined above is why I said yesterday that I would have preferred it if Iecerint hadn't announced that he was out of shots. With the missed vig kill on N2, I was holding out hope that he was an every-other-night variant and that the forced victory could have still worked with no vig on night 4 instead of no lynch the day after.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'll try to keep this succinct.

1. Yos claims to be some kind of beacon of scumhunting this game, having caught the whole scumteam. In truth, his scumhunting can be described as mediocre at best; the only actual "catching" he did was on Parama (and even then he never actually made a case against him beyond "he's clearly scum" to convince anyone to lynch him), everything that happened from D4 onward was dictated to him by gamestate. If he didn't want to vote Xanatos (more on this later), he HAD to vote one of his scumbuddies and he HAD to vote Hydra yesterday. Before D4, he treated MBL and Hydra in typical scumbuddy fashion: Complete ignorance on D1 while he was running up AGM, null reads on D2. On D3, he started weakly distancing from Hydra, while keeping his vote on me. Note that his suspicion of Hydra is not born from a natural thought process, he suddenly objects to Hydra's D1 posts that he had no problems with the day before, indicating that this was an overnight decision to distance.
2. He claims that a 3-man scumteam would never spread their votes around when they're in a position to win the game with a mislynch. This is clearly contradicted by clear in-threat evidence. Hydra

did

pile their vote on Xanatos and then quickly retracted when they realized how obvious it would make them look. In this situation, with the majority of the town very suspicious of Xanatos' claim, it's clearly a better approach to wait for the townies to vote first rather than scaring them off because suddenly all possible scumsuspects are suddenly in tandem.
3. Yos tries to take credit for "saving" Xanatos. As previously mentioned, the exact opposite was the case. Yos did nothing but repeat that Xanatos was "clearly town" and that "this does not make any sense". What he accomplished with this, at least in my case, is a strong feeling of a Yos-DX scumpair, thus adding further fuel to the Xanatos wagon. What ended up defusing the Xanatos lynch was he himself, pointing out a breadcrumb, not anything Yos said or did.
4. The only thing keeping me from being confirmed at this point is a lack of of a successful protect, which Yosarian has gleefully pointed out. Not only did I counterclaim Killerjester, I made the one play on N5 that makes a scum win

impossible

. If I was scum, I had complete control over who died that night, and yet the role died that would have spelled immediate disaster for Yos and only Yos, while the role that would have guaranteed a town victory survived. There was no way for me to anticipate that Iecerint was out of shots.
5. Anyone who has spent as much time theorizing about mafia as Yos has knows that a Vig is infinitely more powerful than a gunsmith, particularly in endgame. Why then does he seem to think that I should have protected Xanatos instead of Iece? Because he knows that he was going to get investigated while Hydra was getting lynched and that would have been game over right there. I didn't know that, as I felt an investigation immunity among the scum was likely. Not that as scum, I would have had a theoretical chance to get Xanatos or one of the neighbors lynched if I had killed Iece that night. You can argue with a gunsmith, you can't argue with a vig.
6. Instead of adressing the fact that I was following a forced winning strategy, Yos presents some inaccurate and irrelevant math in an attempt to argue that it's impossible for a player of my caliber to be fooled by good scum play. He has made no attempt whatsoever to show how I defended MBL and Hydra in a scummy manner (he did make lame accusations with regards to my conduct toward Parama which I already adressed), because I didn't. My reads where clearly reasoned, well established and internally consistent. I was straight fooled. Contrast this with how he himself handled those two players on days 1-3.

Yos has lied his ass off, made numerous false claims and really has no leg to stand on here. It's clear that he is the last scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

For that matter, if I had been scum with Hydra, Hydra never would have unvoted David at all, there would be no reason for him to do so. It's not like Hydra was being attacked for his David vote by anyone; the only logical reason for him to move his vote to me is if he honestly didn't care if David was lynched or if I was lynched.

So if Hydra is scum with Yos, he never would have unvoted at all, but if he's scum with me, he suddenly would?

To put that another way, I was on the site during the period when DH and CTD were both voting for Xanatos. If I logged on to the site, I can guarentee I at least glanced at this game. ML was also on the site during that time period. In other words, both me and ML would have had a chance to move our vote over, and neither of us did.

Bullshit, I have already established that the two of you were

not

online at the same time. I would have given links, but I didn't check if the posts in question were in made in ongoing games.

[CrashTextDummie]

If there was a third scum that wasn't on the the wagon at the time, then as soon as there were two townies on the wagon, Hydra would have moved his vote over and put him at lynch -1 so the third buddy could finish it. Heck, he had said repeatedly that he thought David was scum and that MBL was town, so he wouldn't have looked weird doing that. The fact that he didn't even try pretty much proves that both of his buddies were already on the wagon at this time.

He would have looked weird to me, because his play of going after you instead of deciding between MBL and DX actually made sense to me from a town PoV unlike yours. If he had moved his vote over shortly after I had voted, I sure as hell wouldn't have stayed there.

[CrashTextDummie]

Sure. You were attacking David all day. If you had been town and had been attacking David the way you were, then Hydra would have kept his vote on David and cruised through to the mislynch.

There were 4 possible scum suspects. My attack against David very much depended on the fact that I didn't get the impression that scum were making a concerted effort to get him lynched. i assume it was the same for everyone.

He unvoted David and voted me because he thought he had a shot to mislynch me instead once DH voted me, and possibly because he wanted to undermine my defense of David and my attack of MBL. None of that makes sense if I'm scum.

I agree with the undermining your defense and attack part, because that directly contributes to the suspicion of Xanatos. I still don't think you were very likely to be lynched, even with DH's vote.

You don't have to be online at the same time to lynch someone. Is your theory really that, in lynch or lose, with a townie at lynch -2, two scum were sitting around and twiddling their thumbs until they were both on at the same time? Who in their right minds would do that?

Who in their right mind wouldn't? A quicklynch is a guaranteed victory, while voting hours apart holds considerable risk.

I don't suppose you're going to address the fact that I was following a strategy that would have been straight suicide if I was scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, what more do you need? Yos lying, Yos claiming to be cleared when he is not, Yos falsely taking responsibility for virtually everything that has gone right for the town this game, and now Yos pretending that the concept of quicklynching is completely foreign to him. Meanwhile, he has shown NOTHING in my play that doesn't make 100% sense from a town PoV, and he has said NOTHING in his defense except for "I couldn't have"s and "he wouldn't have"s that have no basis in reality whatsover.

The rolecop argument is particularly frustrating. There weren't even enough nights for me to supposedly investigate all the people necessary to paint a coherent picture of this stupid theory. And a scum rolecop with a result on the SK does not fucking wait around until he maybe claims something worth counterclaiming, he claims some kind of result (cop, watcher, tracker, JoaT, etc. literally anything would work) to clear himself in the eyes of the town.

I don't think I got my point across with regards to the winning strategy I followed, so I will elaborate in my next post.

[CrashTextDummie]

On N4, I was looking for a guaranteed winning strategy, mostly as a precaution in case DH or Xanatos were scum, because I felt I was the least confirmed out of all the claimed roles. I was confident that after Hydra vigged, no lynch, Yos vigged, I could get any scum lynched in endgame because by enacting this plan, I eliminated ANY CHANCE of a scumwin, because even a misslynch on that final day would result in everyone dead.

Keeping David Xanatos alive did not guarantee a victory. Not if the scum had investigation immunity,not if Xanatos was running an elaborate gambit and not if DH was scum. It would have come down to someone making a judgement call in endgame.

I did not have a serious fear that Xanatos was playing us and only mild paranoia about DH, but this was playing it safe and covered all bases.

If I was scum, there would have been NOTHING I could have done against this plan. I would have been dead by the end of the game, guaranteed. And it doesn't take a genius to figure this out.

If I was scum and left Xanatos alive, I could argue that Yos is a godfather, that DH is scum or that Xanatos himself is scum. Unless Xanatos investigates me that night (which in all likelihood wasn't going to happen), I still have options.

Killing Xanatos over Iecerint would have been playing against my win con, plain and simple.

[CrashTextDummie]

The scum rolecop theory is an old theory. People mentioned it when DX claimed having been blocked even though his slot had been replaced a million times. Replaced-a-million-times slots are more likely to be VT given that they are town, so DX was a weird block target, and weird block targets can warrant interpretation.

Right, I forgot about that. Toasty was the first to bring up the theory as a reaction to the roleblock, Yosarian used it for the first time shortly afterwards to try to sow doubt about my claim.

Yos lying re: his interactions with Hydra, or what're you referring to?

I'll make a compilation in my next post.

I called you nigh-confirmed earlier, but I'd expressed ambivalence about Yos. I think that alone is enough to justify keeping me alive. I don't recall what DX said about you two, though.

It's irrelevant who you thought was scum or confirmed. We would have been able to lynch/vig every single player that isn't you.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iece, I'm referring to lies such as:

Well, I'm confirmed town now, I think; it's not possible for me to be scum with Hydra on 2 days ago, or the game would have ended.

I was doing everything I could to convince people to not vote for Xantos and to vote MBL instead, and I managed to succeed in that, despite everything you and Hydra could do to stop me.

I caught and lynched your entire scumgroup this game, CTD; you guys should really have nightkilled me earlier.

Note here he says "vig hydra", probably because Icereant had already said he would.

Also, note that before the end of the day here, I tell him to doc-protect Xanatos, and he agrees.

All from today.

[CrashTextDummie]

If you're the scum, it's not irrelevant, especially if you're the rolecop. Then you'd potentially know about my shoot status and want to keep players who thought you were town in the game.

Your rolename does mention your amount of shots, yes? Just to get that out of the way.

There was only a small window of time where investigating you would have made sense for a scum rolecop, because you were outed on D2. And if you think that I then went on to investigate Xanatos on N2, my counterclaim of KJ would have been reckless beyond belief.

[CrashTextDummie]

There is nothing ambiguous about my counterclaim. The term "counterclaim" is pretty clearly defined, and if someone is claiming for reasons that aren't "he claimed my role", it is expected of him to elaborate immediately.

I was not going to get into the nightkill speculation because quite frankly that's for Iece and Toasty to figure out, but if Yos is gonna play, so will I.

If we lynch Hydra and he flips scum Rolecop, lets think hard between Yosarian and CTD.

Hydra didn't flip scum rolecop though. Here's what he said previous to that:

I'm 98% sure it's Hydra, and about 70% sure on Yos. I might have said this before, but if CTD is scum, I'll congratulate him. If Toasty is scum, I'll pay him my life savings and go live as a hermit.

DH was also the only player I didn't clear in that post Yos so gleefully quoted at the beginning of to today, and therefore the only player that I was not likely to protect.

[CrashTextDummie]

4 and 5 are errors rather than lies, and not errors likely to ingratiate anyone to him. I don't see the scum motivations, particularly.

Both are attempts to nullify stuff I did that points towards me being town. I can accept the first as an error if he just looked through my ISO, but the second is a clear disconnect in his thought process as it concerns something he said himself. He doesn't remember what he felt was optimal play on that day? Really?

So on one hand there's the theory that I am a scum rolecop that investigated Iecerint on N1 (or after he was exposed, for some reason), and killerjester and Xanatos, all before the dawn of D3. On the other hand, there is the simple truth that I am a doc and Yos is scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

Between the point when Killer claimed doc, and when you counterclaimed, every person in the game posted except Shanba, Icearent, and Hydra. Hydra was your scumbuddy, and Icearent had already claimed doc, so there was almost no risk of you getting counterclaimed by a real doctor at that point; the only person who could even theoretically have still been a doctor was Shanba.

So I could have been counterclaimed by Shanba. Or did I investigate him as well?

DH started the day voting me right out of the gate. I convinced him that Hydra was probably scum, I got him to unvote me, and I convinced him that a Hydra-CTD scum team was at least theoretically possible. As the day went on, he seemed to be getting more and more doubt about me being scum, I think I was slowly convincing him. He showed a willingness to listen to me, an open-mindedness, and he was open to the possibility of you being scum. It made perfect sense for you to kill him, based on what he said yesterday.

DH has maintained a very clear "3-scum-left" stance from D4 onward and only allowed for you to be town if Hydra happened to be the last scum. Him "only" being 78% sure of you being scum served as a reason to vote Hydra over you and nothing more. This is clear from his posting yesterday and from what Toasty posted today.

[CrashTextDummie]

I really feel like I pretty much singlehandedly through sheer force of will stopped Xantos from being lynched for long enough for the breadcrumb to come out.

This made me laugh out loud, btw. At least you have panache, Yos.

[CrashTextDummie]

The aliens serves to obfuscate results (and doesn't allow protection chains with the doc), the scum had a roleblock to counter role interaction and there were 3 killing parties involved. I don't see any problem with balance.

[CrashTextDummie]

I can't comment since I don't play frequently enough. Considering that this particular set of powers was more likely to interfere with each other rather than complement each other, it didn't even occur to me to question it.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint just needs to get over the paranoia that Yos and Hydra have been building up since 3 days ago. Just look over Yos' posting since the Xanatos claim, it's a fucking clinic on how to pull the wool over a town's eyes.

[...]both DH and CTD were supporting the David lynch for most of the day, which means that they can't possibly have both been town.

This is as blatantly untrue as it is predictable coming from you. Kill one and argue that the other can't possibly be town now.

The set-up is not unbalanced. The mere fact that we are in this situation today, with one scum left at mylo, proves that the set-up was balanced.

And the rolecop theory assumes a one-in-a-million set of circumstances and/or a set of incredibly counter-intuitive plays on my part that are ridiculous beyond believe. There is not a single shred of evidence in support of it. Nothing at all. It was quite literally pulled out of thin air.

Wake up, please.

[CrashTextDummie]

Have fun reading, Iece. I'm available if there's any questions.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hi, I appologize. Had some unexpected business creeping up on me over the weekend.

Having looked just at Hrezs in iso, I'm about ready to vote CTD. He has an EXTREME fixation on MBL and Hydra, but he never attacks either of them, and he instead votes other-neighbor DemonHybrid for the usual reasons. His fixation is based on describing questionable things both hypo-buddies do, and then describing them as "anti-town." In spite of this, he somehow lists MBL as his second-scum tier (after DH), even though he only singles out MBL for "asking questions," which is not prima facie scum behavior. This looks to me like bungled distancing from MBL and a misplaced desire to coach both scumfriends.

I just had a look at Rezs' ISO, and I don't see an extreme fixation on MBL and Hydra. He didn't attack MBL for "asking questions" either, he very clearly articulated why he had a legitimate problem with him ("It comes across that he doesn't want to put forth content or interact with the players"). If anything, he should be commended for sniffing out MBL at a point when no one else, to the best of my recollection, was paying attention to him.

Obviously I have a different perspective on his posts and it's a lot easier to see posts for what they are when you actually know the alignment of the player in question, but I don't really see what the deal here is.

This is CTD's first post of the day in which KJ was lynched. In other words, there is no evidence of an intentional delay in coming out with information as per CTD's suggestion. Earlier today, CTD pointed out that a rolecop with SK information would not have sat on the information before counter-claiming. This is in fact basically exactly what CTD did -- he came out immediately using hyperbolic-if-he's-just-a-doctor "all but confirmed" language that was probably designed to set-up a possible investigative claim down the line if it ended up that the Tracker was the only such town role (which would be quite plausible if the scum had a rolecop IMO). I think Yos was correct on this point earlier.
[...]
I think CTD misrepresented his own play D3.

Several things about this:
1. I did not misrepresent my play at all. I never claimed not to have had a scum read on KJ. I caught him using a very reliable scumtell and explained this in great detail.
2. Even just a cursory glance at any the games I have ever played on this site would reveal to you that I use this kind of "hyperbolic language" in every single game I play. And this is NOT a hyperbolic statement. It didn't even occur to me that this could be construed as "some kind of breadcrumb". This is how I play.
2. You commended me at the time for a huge wall post I made against KJ. Why the hell would I have bothered with that if I was just waiting to spring an investigation on him.

Note also CTD calling out Hydra for "dangerous, useless" play here, but being convinced he was town down the line.

If I hadn't had a strong town read on him, I would have called him scummy for it. I thought he was a townie going down a potentially dangerous tangent. I don't see your problem here.

What's wrong with the structure of my replace-in posts?

Hresz was super scummy, thats a great point.
Also, CTD would've been under lots of suspicion if not for that doc claim.

Meransiel and Mastin immediately pegged me as town when I replaced in. Shanba also developed a strong town read before the counter-claim. Iecerint never had me among his suspects. The only townies who voiced suspicions on me where yourself and DX. To say that I was in desperate need of town cred simply isn't true.

I'd like to write more, but it's 1:30 AM and I need sleep. Hopefully more tomorrow.

[CrashTextDummie]

@CTD: but claiming doc would be a sexy gambit that paid off

Any power role claim has the potential to be a "sexy gambit". Have you seen many successful scum fake-countering SKs?

If you were scum, you would probably want to lynch him without claiming because you would put yourself into a probable 1/1 with any other town investigative roles still out there (in this game, it would've put you in one with DX).

You completely lost me. Why would I

not

want to get into a 1/1 with any other town investigative roles when I am holding 100% provable information in hand? And why would I want to lynch him without claiming when that would completely invalidate any kind of edge such an investigation would give? Claim the next day that "oh by the way, I had a guilty on him, lulz"?

And which one is it now, did I breadcrumb an investigation result because it looked plausible to me that tracker was the only investigative town role or did I fear running into another investigative role and therefore put several hours into "one of the most worth-reading wallposts on MS in recent memory"?

This is so dumb, seriously.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, please ask yourself how you would play as a scum rolecop with a result on the SK and then contrast it with my play. ALL of my D3 posts, not just the first.

[CrashTextDummie]

And then ask yourself how you would have played that day as a doc with a strong scum read on KJ.

[CrashTextDummie]

Because claiming when it's unnecessary is unnecessary. This part would apply whether you were a town Cop or scum who wanted to claim it.

A town cop and a scum who wants to claim it have differing motivations. The former wants to get his guilty lynched without revealing himself if possible, the latter wants to be confirmed in the town's eye. Claiming before the lynch adds more confirmation than claiming after the fact.

As a doc, I don't think I would not have claimed that someone unconfirmed was "all but confirmed" (hence my taking issue with your hyperbolic language, which I interpret as a breadcrumb, and you insist is par for the course) or actively take such a dramatic stance. This is part of what bothered me about that post.

So you play it closer to the chest when you draw a power role. I'm sure you're no stranger to people who don't believe in that strategy.

I would have preferred a decision today over another WIFOM-ladden night, but it's better than for the two of you to rush a decision if you are having trouble making up your minds.

[CrashTextDummie]

There is if you're known for attacking your suspects with force and you don't want drop PR-tells. I may even be more aggressive when I draw a PR, as my playstyle doesn't get me nightkilled often anyway.

[CrashTextDummie]

And there's no reason to match normative play when it leaves you less confirmed, because suboptimal PR play doesn't get scrutinized. Did you suspect Meransiel of tomfoolery just because he outed you and himself prematurely?

[CrashTextDummie]

If scum claims to avoid being lynched, it is more likely to be seen as a last-ditch scum effort, particularly if the "crumbs" are this weak, and especially so if there's another investigative town role. Whereas claiming before the lynch 100% confirms you as having a power and therefore is more resistant to a potential counter-claim.

[CrashTextDummie]

I was planning on protecting Iecerint if we no lynch, so I'm good.

[CrashTextDummie]

I protected Iecerint, as discussed.

vote: Yosarian2

[CrashTextDummie]

I actually felt I was getting through to Iecerint and considered him less likely to mislynch me than Toasty, which is why I went along with protecting him to begin with.

[CrashTextDummie]

As it stands, I think CTD is the scum.

I struggle putting into words how frustrating it is to read that. That you still see me as scum even after you acknowledge my genuine frustration and concede that my play on D3 makes sense for doc-CTD and not so much for scum-CTD quite frankly blows my mind. If you're STILL not over that stupid fucking rolecop bullshit, I don't know what else to say. This is the biggest piece of crap fail logic I've ever had to deal with in a game of mafia.

I damn sure hope last night is not figuring into that believe of yours, because it's such an obvious sham. It is clear as day now that Yos' "Iecerint is most confirmed, so he should be protected" spiel was a load of BS to set up his little WIFOM fairy tale today. The only thing he cared about was that, in his mind, Iecerint was more of an ally to him than Toasty. And it just so happens that I thought the same thing. Why in the hell would I consent to protecting Iecerint if I didn't think he was more likely to vote in my favor? As a general rule of thumb, I don't let scum dictate my night actions against my will, in spite of Yos' grandstanding that he "made me do it". It's just another one of his distortions of facts. Are you really that blind?

I'll try to come up with a more constructive post when I've slept over this mess.

[CrashTextDummie]

You realize that makes no sense, right?

If I was scum, and I was that confident that "Iecerint was more of an ally of me then toasty", and you had promised to protect Icerint, then...why wouldn't I have just killed toasty?

Because Iecerint has, on at least one occasion, stated that in today's metagame he's inclined to take night kills at face value.

I did not consider Toasty to be the fence vote. I thought I was making great progress in convincing Iecerint whereas Toasty got more critical of me towards the end of today. I also perceived Iecerint to be more open to being reasoned with whereas Toasty is less interactive and his voting is more opaque. It didn't even cross my mind that Toasty would vote out of allegiance to DH, since he's shown himself to be an independent thinker on all days I've experienced them playing together. Being a doc is my one edge over Yos, I'd be a complete fool to just give it up by protecting the player I think is more likely to mislynch me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint's comment that you were probably scum was the last thing he said about you yesterday.

That's just a flat out lie. How does this make sense to you, Iecerint? Do you not remember or check back on your own posts?

The last things Iecerint said about me yesterday:

I will grant that your incredulity (here and earlier) appears genuine, though....

THOUGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH now that you mention it, you probably wouldn't have implied that you were the doc with your last posts. It's true that it's BETTER play (since no one but Shanba was likely to be the doctor, and another investigative town role was plausible), but not that it's what would naturally occur to a rolecop scum, I think...

So that is something.

Those are decent points.

I had refuted each and every point in Iece's "I reread and think CTD is scum" post and he agreed with me. He also said that Yos looked scummy to him as well. If that's not coming around, I don't know what is.

you didn't have any possible way to justify refusing to protect Iece, not after you earlier claimed that you protected Iece over the Xantos the night after Xantos confirmed himself to be a pro-town info role and caught us a scum.

If I had thought that Toasty was in my corner and Iece was in your corner, I would have

never

went along with your silly "demand". I'm not going to let the scum tailor the endgame when it is in my power to decide who lives into it. This is madness.

And you're still arguing that a fucking gunsmith is worth more than a vig WHO GUARANTEES VICTORY TO THE TOWN which is still BULLSHIT to the highest degree.

Iecerint, are you seriously going to buy that Yos was all about "who out of our two confirmed players is MORE confirmed" when it comes to last nights protection?

[CrashTextDummie]

Don't cherry-pick one sentence and then call the defense incoherent. It wasn't that long of a post to begin with.

I don't know what your motive was, I'm not in the business of mind-reading. It looks plausible to me that you were setting up a bowl of WIFOM though, looking at your posts immediately before and after last night.

Before: "You guys are both confirmed to me but Iecerint is MORE confirmed, therefore we should demand of CTD that he be protected, thus proving he's a liar in case Iecerint dies".

After: "AHA! I, being the genius townie that I am, trapped CTD into protecting the guy who was sure to vote against him, thus forcing him to no-kill! Ain't I super pro-town."

I don't need to know what your scum-motive was in order to point out your lack of town-motive. The "more/less confirmed" business is obvious hogwash. A pro-town player in your shoes would make it a point

not

to show any preference as to which player gets to be the linchpin in a 3-man endgame, because he wouldn't want to telegraph to the scum what his optimal play is.

[CrashTextDummie]

This is silly. The reason that I made a point of saying it was that at this point I knew that scum had fake-claimed doctor, and once I pointed out that iece was the most confirmed person in the game, the scum who was pretending to be a doctor wouldn't be able to get away with killing him. You already knew, of course, that killing Iece was probably your optimal play if you could get away with it; I just made sure you wouldn't be able to get away with it.

What would you have done if I had refused to protect Iecerint and had gone with Toasty instead, lynch me? If you were actually town, that's what you risked. Because you're scum, you knew that you could spin it either way.

The idea that I was in any way obligated to protect Iecerint is absurd. I was going to protect who I thought was less likely to screw up in endgame, which I suppose sounds pretty stupid now.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, you don't need to lynch me if it's blame you want. You already get your fair share of that for your appalling failure to full claim when you were out of shots, which is what got us into this situation to begin with and gave Yos at least half of the ammunition he has used against me. Could I interest you in some redemption instead?

[CrashTextDummie]

Above post makes no sense to me. You insist that I would have had a hard time justifying not protecting Iecerint, which has no basis in reality. You just repeat the same drivel over and over.

[CrashTextDummie]

If I think Iecerint is more likely to mislynch me and that Toasty is more likely to help me lynch the scum, I protect the latter. Simple as that.

[CrashTextDummie]

And stop spouting lies. I never claimed Iecerint being more confirmed than Xanatos as the reason I protected him that night. I'm going to post a collection of your posts on that matter tomorrow to show what a fucking hypocrite you are.

Sleep now.

[CrashTextDummie]

He would not have had to ask me today, as I would have announced it yesterday.

[CrashTextDummie]

Can't sleep, so I'm gonna get this off my chest now.

i knew that adding another night was going to introduce nothing but WIFOM into the game, and I've stated as such at the end of yesterday. Just look at today and the end of yesterday and it should be blatantly obvious who is trying every dirty trick in the book to profit from that no lynch.

I have more to say about Yos' latest posts, but I actually want to calm myself for that one.

[CrashTextDummie]

Lol. So, when Toasty asked you today "why did you let Iece die, when you thought he was confirmed all game", your excuse would have been "because I thought you were easier to manipulate"? Yeah, I bet that would have worked out well for you.

All we have been doing for the past couple of days, both you and I, is trying to influence Iece's and Toasty's voting decision. It's called "endgame". The difference between the two of us is that I've kept it straightforward, whereas you've utilized WIFOM, outright lies, misrepresentation of facts, cherrypicking of arguments, argument from repetition, etc. etc. The list goes on and on.

What's unusual about this situation compared to other 4 player endgames is that I'm a doc and you don't get free choice over who you kill. Your way of coping with this is to A) load the situation way the fuck up with WIFOM and B) to argue that it's anti-town of me to take advantage of the edge my role is giving me and the town.

It drives me absolutely insane that you have the gall to accuse me of manipulation and neither Toasty nor Iecerint bats an eye.

[CrashTextDummie]

And now you're trying to put words in my mouth; when did I ever say that you "claimed Iece was more confirmed then Xanatos"?

Right there:

[...]when you supposedly considered him more confirmed then Xantos the night after Xantos caught MBL for the town.

I'm pretty sure the rest of your post is just a repeat of what you've said before. Someone please point out if there's anything I haven't addressed already.

[CrashTextDummie]

I didn't claim I had no shots left because the Roleblocker wasn't known to be MBL yet, so I thought I could draw the roleblock. I'd do it again.

Blech, I guess that's fair enough. I can see why you wouldn't consider that from my PoV, it looked like your role provided a guaranteed winning strategy. But it doesn't wash the sour taste out of my mouth of feeling hung out to dry that night.

[CrashTextDummie]

Yosarian's opinion on night actions before Xanatos died:

When MBL flips scum, Icerent shoot hydra, Xantos investigate whoever you want (the three unconfirmed are me, Hydra, and CTD); and CTD, flip a coin and protect either Icerent or Xantos.

Yosarian's opinion on that night's events after Xanatos died, but before Iecerint claimed being out of shots:

The fact that the scum killed the cop and apparently knew he wouldn't get doc protection, despite CTD's promise yesterday to flip a coin, is a pretty big black mark against CTD[...]

I told CTD to flip a coin and either protect Icerent or Xantos.

CTD said he would do it.

After Hydra was lynched, and Iecerint's full claim revealed my protection of him to be objectively bad, without any way for me to know:

Also, note that before the end of the day here, I tell him to doc-protect Xanatos, and he agrees. And yet, Xanatos is nightkilled. The scum never would have tried that if they actually thought he was going to be protecting David; that clearly points towards CTD being scum. So not only did CTD not protect Xanatos, it looks like the scum *knew* that he wasn't going to protect Xanatos, or they never would have risked killing him; one doc protection puts us on odd numbers and gives the town another lynch.

On the other hand, if anyone other then you was scum, they would have been taking a HUGE risk in trying to kill the cop with a living doctor.

Plus, heck;

you're the scum rolecop, right? You might very well have known Icearent was out of shots.

I also think that the really key turning point of the game was day 4, when the fact that we lynched MBL instead of David turned a guaranteed scum win into what looked like an almost guaranteed town win

(the only reason it wasn't was because you were out of shots, but the scum didn't know that)

.

Explain to me how you could have possibly justified iecerint dying without being protected, when he's a confirmed vig, in a setup that already has a dead SK, when you supposedly considered him more confirmed then Xantos the night after Xantos caught MBL for the town.

I may have missed a few. Please contrast the first quote with the last. Underlines were added by me for emphasis.

[CrashTextDummie]

Toasty, you haven't stated any reason to think I am scum other than a nebulous "Yos has made good points", "wouldn't it have been a sexy gambit" and "I was suspicious of his predecessor". So I have a question for you:

Do you think I am a scum rolecop?

[CrashTextDummie]

Forgot to add this quote to go along with the last one in my post 1793:

you didn't have any possible way to justify refusing to protect Iece, not after you earlier claimed that you protected Iece over the Xantos the night after Xantos confirmed himself to be a pro-town info role and caught us a scum.

They both pretty much accuse me of committing a heinous crime in not protecting Xanatos.

[CrashTextDummie]

That's a new one.

[CrashTextDummie]

So you agree that I didn't have any way to know that Iecerint was out of shots the night Xanatos died.

What was my brilliant plan then? Protect Hydra and reveal to the town that the scum didn't just have a roleblocker? Standing there with my pants down after Hydra is lynched and revealed not to be NK-immune?

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, I am stunned by your bad judgement and your stubborn refusal to see the truth in front of your eyes. One moment you say you think I'm town again and all it takes is a fucking hand wave from Yos to sway you back to his side. And he's calling

me

manipulative. I feel like I'm arguing against a fucking guru who has you under a spell or something. LOOK at how manipulative and deceitful he has been for the past two days and even before that setting up this situation. Just look. Why haven't you called him on this? Why do you accept his evasion when I call him on his bullshit? Good grief.

The only weird thing to me about CTD scum is Hydra's post 1449. This doesn't seem like a good post to make after one partner has just declared intent to lynch the other one...

So after all this arguing, it still doesn't strike you as weird that I counterclaimed the fucking SK and that my play would have lead to what looked like a guaranteed scum loss. You still believe in the fairytale fantasy that I am a scum rolecop or some other such bullshit. There is NO. FUCKING. EVIDENCE. in favor of that theory. There are multiple pieces of evidence that argue against it. The whole thing came from fucking scumbag Yos going "well, CTD couldn't be scum unless he was a rolecop". What you should have taken from that is that CTD COULD NOT BE SCUM, and yet for some unearthly reason you just shrugged your shoulders, put on your blinders and said "makes sense to me". It was a clutch play from Yos to keep someone lynchable, and it was a play he prepared several days in advance because he knew he needed SOMETHING to argue against my claim. How on earth he got this to stick is beyond me.

You are worse than trapped in confirmation bias hell. Not only are you seeing confirmation for your BS theory where there is none, you are actively and willfully ignoring the things that would take it apart. There is NOTHING in that VC analysis you posted that argues for CTD-scum and against Yos-scum (and you called me "dumbtownCTD" at one point, which almost made me do a spit take). You couldn't verify the time stamps for the window of potential quicklynching, but rest assured that what I posted on the matter is accurate. Not even if I were scum would I lie about information that is on public record.

I don't get you, Iecerint. I don't understand

why

you so stubbornly cling to a theory that is so flawed as to be a farce. Is it that Yos-scum looks too simple for you? Is it that you have some irrational fear of being outplayed by a machiavellian mafiate? What the hell is it. There is nothing in Yos' play that points towards him being town. And almost everything that reflects badly on me was either out of my hands (the protection of you over Xanatos) or actively influenced, worked upon and exploited by the scum (my push against Xanatos, my push against Yos over Hydra). You are going to throw this game away and I am at a fucking loss as to what went wrong.

[CrashTextDummie]

Are you still leaning towards lynching me, Toasty?

[CrashTextDummie]

I still think your SK counterclaim was weird for CTDscum, as I just stated in my previous post. Your implicit assertion that I have ignored this point is untrue.

Maybe so, but that makes it even worse for me. I know you've acknowledged all this stuff (unlike Toasty, I'm not sure WHAT is going on in his mind with that scum doc accusation out of left field) and disregarded it, against all logic and reason. I see your reasons to doubt CTD-scum and your reasons to doubt Yos-scum, and I'm thinking what on earth is possessing you to vote me.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest you could be scum of some sort of other.

Like what. I am not aware of any evidence against me that withstood scrutiny.

"DumbtownCTD" is a reflection of the point that most of your reads had been wrong up to that point as town if town.

My read on Yos was correct. My read on KJ was correct. Go ahead and call half of the town, including yourself, dumb for not seeing MBL and Hydra scum. My predecessor actually

did

see MBL scum, when no one was paying attention to him.

Yos-scum actually looks too complicated, not too simple, for me. Hydra's bussing seemed too early, the Yos-Hydra shouting match that continued to develop afterwards was too nuanced.

Why? The scum came into D4 knowing that, in all likelyhood, they'd be occupying 3 spots out of 4 the town would consider the lynch pool. They knew they'd have to bus to some extent if they didn't want to be obvious, and with a scumteam of this caliber, a shouting match like that is not that hard to fake and prepare. Xanatos being a rolecop probably came as a surprise to them, and it looks like Hydra flipped out a little before adjusting to this new revelation. And Yos had to fake some superficial questioning before he could come to the conclusion that Xanatos was "obv-town". Nothing about it looks complicated to me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, do you seriously believe that I had knowledge of you being out of shots (either by investigating you on N1 by an incredible stroke of luck, or by investigating you for some reason after you were revealed). Or do you seriously believe, if I did not have knowledge of you being out of shots, that I would leave you alive when it is evident by my play on D5 that I was aware of a guaranteed winning strategy involving your claimed role.

[CrashTextDummie]

Of course it differentiates between the two of us. If I am scum, I had complete control over who died that night. If Yos is scum, he did not.

Yos has argued that the scum wouldn't have tried to kill Xanatos if they knew one of the power roles would be protected. The exact opposite is true. Yos and Hydra absolutely

had

to kill Xanatos if they wanted any hope to survive

the next day

. It also gave them a potential opening to attack the doc, one of the roles the town largely considered confirmed and they needed to get lynched, which Yos took immediate advantage of.

You are aware of what a guaranteed win is, right? There is no hard winning strategy provided by a gunsmith that doesn't rely on someone making the right judgement call.

Did DX ever get confirmation that Yos-GF was not a possible explanation, on its own, for his being blocked (i.e. that at least ALSO being blocked would be necessary to explain the result)? I suppose that would be another piece of hard evidence supporting Yosscum.

If I remember correctly, he did get confirmation that his lack of result was the works of a roleblocker.

I'm not terribly impressed with your read on the Serial Killer, which is all your list of correct reads does for me at this point.

WHAT? I could understand earlier how you could see scum making a "most worth-reading wall-post in recent memory" but I certainly don't understand how what you considered "most worth-reading" then would leave you "not terrribly impressed" now.

[CrashTextDummie]

In terms of hard evidence, the best argument against Yosscum is that scum had a 16 hour window to win if Yos is scum earlier, and I would've thought that 3 players (Ludi+Thor+Yos) with that much experience would have lurked moar to take advantage of it.

It is a hard fact that they were not online at the same time. I don't know what went on in their personal lives to cause this, but the time stamps prove that they were not.

Regarding the early D4 bussing -- for example, by securing enough votes on DX, the scumteam could have won outright. Risking storing potential DX votes on Yos is counter-productive with regard to getting enough town-on-town votes to secure the win.

How would you have gone about lynching Xanatos if you were one of MBL/Hydra/Yos? Just pile on all the votes? Hedge your bets? They had to bus at least one partner if they didn't want to stand there with a lone suspect (when several town members assumed three scum left).

[CrashTextDummie]

WHAT? I could understand earlier how you could see scum making a "most worth-reading wall-post in recent memory" but I certainly don't understand how what you considered "most worth-reading" then would leave you "not terrribly impressed" now.

I think I misread. The fact that I caught the SK does not impress you. Well, I'm very proud of it, looking back it was probably the last day we could safely lynch him.

[CrashTextDummie]

Did Yos' behavior on D4 make it more or less likely in your mind that Xanatos was scum/town?

[CrashTextDummie]

My role was only a guaranteed win if you assumed certain things about my role -- like, that it had another shot. Same with DX -- you had to assume proper use of the ability. I can understand your perspective that they are not comparable, but I think that perspective comes from your having made too many assumptions about my status.

I had no reason to assume that you were out of shots, or really anything other than a fully working vig, since I would have expected you to claim. But we already went over that.

It's evident by the fact that I protected you that I made too many assumptions, but that's an argument against me being scum not for.

Not voting or putting the vote elsewhere in the short term is OK, but making a legitimate case for a 3rd way risks splitting the necessary extra town votes and is self-defeating.

Define *short term". It took more than 3 days before Xanatos got into lynch range, and both Yos and Hydra had presented themselves as active and opinionated before. I certainly would have raised more than an eyebrow if they had just twiddled their thumbs, they were two of the possible scum candidates after all. There was a general anti-Xanatos sentiment among the town and Hydra was running a "you may not realize it, but Yos is confirmed scum to me" argument that wasn't going to convince anyone to vote outside of Xanatos/MBL. Also define "elsewhere". Where was Hydra gonna put his vote if not on Yos?

And considering that the neighbors had daytalk, it's not unreasonable that the same applied to the scum, re: pithy posts to indicate online status.

Yos's behavior D4 helped to legitimize the possibility that DX was town from my perspective. I can't remember anyone else who was really supporting him until he announced his crumb.

That makes no sense to me. You said yourself that you had believed we were dealing with 2 scum left that day. Who else did you consider to be Xanatos scum buddy if not Yos?

[CrashTextDummie]

It's evident by the fact that I protected you that I made too many assumptions, but that's an argument against me being scum not for.

Worded this incorrectly, you weren't using this argument as a reason to think I am scum. Your stance was that it was neither for nor against me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Getting bad at wording my shit, lemme try again.

You think I made too many assumptions about your role, which is accurate, but you don't seem to realize how that only explains why I'd protect you as a doc, not why I wouldn't kill you as scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

Yeah, my point is that your only non-flipped caught-scum was the SK, and scum have an interest in finding the SK, too. MBL tried to get sapo-lynch-cred, too.

Couple of things I want to say about this:

1. I just skimmed MBL's posts that day and I don't see where he's trying "to get sapo-lynch-cred". I don't know where you're getting this from.
2. MBL is a flipped caught-scum. It just took me as long as it took you to catch him.
3. I do not accept my failure to lynch Hydra as a point against me. I had the choice between two scum and happened to go for the one who's still alive.
4. If you hadn't been out of shots, you

could

add Hydra to my list.

[CrashTextDummie]

A vig is not a "guaranteed win". 7 people alive going into night, 2 scum, 1 vig means town gets at most 3 kills scum kill, vig kill, 5 alive; lynch, scum kill, vig kill, game over. 2 lynches and 2 vig shots at most.) 4 kills with 8 people alive, in order to hit 2 scum, is hardly a "guarenteed win" at all, not even close.

I explained this before. No lynch the next day would have added another vig kill and allowed for

everyone

not named Iecerint to get lynched or vigged.

Your explanation for why Xanatos was a better kill only makes sense if YOU are scum. A gunsmith does not catch all scum. And I was considered about as confirmed as the neighbors.

[CrashTextDummie]

In other words, if Xanatos had gotten an innocent on you, I would NOT have considered you confirmed.

[CrashTextDummie]

Actually, that's not the argument I wanted to make, although it is true. If you were a godfather, going with Xanatos would have been even worse compared to Iece's guaranteed victory.

If Xanatos had gotten an innocent on you, that would not have made you unlynchable for hypo-scum me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Huh? No, it wouldn't have. Assuming Iece had been an infinite shot vig, then the next day there would have been either 5 or 6 people alive, depending on how the nightkills went, and 2 scum alive. Either way, If the town had no-lynched, like you're saying, the scum had killed any townie, and the vig had fired incorrectly and shot a townie, then the scum would have won right away, that very night. There's no way that's a "guaranteed town victory".

If you think there would have been 2 scum alive, you are delusional. I personally called for Hydra to be vigged, which would have been one scum down.

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD, the basis for assuming something might be up was that I'd skipped shots on N2 and N4, which is consistent with me either being an odd-night vig or a limited-shot vig.

Or a careful vig, but I mean come on.

I took your reasoning for the missed N2 kill at face value, I saw no reason to doubt that you were telling anything but the truth. Plus, I don't think skipping a night is optimal play for a limited shot-vig, I would have wanted to get my shot out, particularly if I was exposed and there was no certainty of a protection role being around.

I did consider an every-other-night variant after you missed the second shot, which I think I've mentioned before. Obviously, this didn't figure into my decision that night.

[CrashTextDummie]

Lol. So, it's a "guaranteed win" only if the vig got lucky and shot scum that very night?

That dosn't sound very "guaranteed". Your defense is crumbling, CTD.

1. At the time, I felt there was more likely to be one scum standing, not two.
2. The strategy was mostly a precaution for one of the neighbors being scum. Both neighbors aren't scum, I'm pretty sure the normal rules don't even allow for all-scum neighborhoods.
3. If Iecerint was not out of shots and had followed my kill suggestion, that

would

have been the result.

Your insinuation that it would have taken luck for this to work is simply ludicrous.

[CrashTextDummie]

@CTD: The way to convincing me is not by calling antagonizing Iecrint by saying YOU DISREGARD EVERYTHING and antagonizing me by WTF ARE U DOING. It comes off like scum struggling to get out of the net he's caught in.

I think this is an unfair representation of my play. I have not accused Iecerint of disregarding everything, there are very specific issues that he weights in a way that I have serious trouble understanding, and I'm gonna state as much.

And it's a sad truth that I don't know what you're doing. "Wouldn't it have been a sexy gambit" was pretty much the only interaction I've gotten out of you in the last two days, until I specifically addressed you with a question, and the answer was something that left me gobsmacked.

I acknowledge that this situation is very frustrating to me and as a result I probably haven't played optimally.

1) To explain my mafia doc thing...
a) You claimed doctor. If we assume fake claims, then doctor would be the obvious one for mafia doctor. Having a claim and being unable to back it up without legitimately having said power is disastrous for scum. This is why someone who claims a doc most likely is not lying about a protective power.
b) There were only two kills night 2. Something was blocked. Perhaps it led scum team to discover the ID of the SK. (@IECERINT: Did you claim the Meransiel kill? Can't remember)
c) Town has lots of investigative power and an alien, which means a doc is not completely necessary
d) Why the hell would an SK claim doc? Like, it makes no legitimate sense.

a) I understand the thought process in principle. However I think it's rare for scum to be given safe claims in normal games. And considering the odds of any given scum role being in the game, the extension of this thought, "someone who claims doc is most likely not lying about having a protective power", should be that I'm most likely not scum
b) It has been clearly established, both by Iecerint's claim and by kill methods, that PBug and PetroleumJelly were SK kills
c) No role is completely necessary. Your idea on set-up compositions might disagree with our mod's, so I can accept this point
d) How should I know?

[CrashTextDummie]

Well I think your evaluation is a good one. The only problem I have is that we are seriously in a position with SOOO MUCH WIFOM, and I may have to make a simple educated guess.

Please try to recognize who has introduced all this WIFOM into this situation. There are instances in this game, my counter-claim, my Iecerint protection, that are not WIFOM but simply suicide if I was scum and therefore clear indicators that I am town.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, if you're reconsidering, please take your vote off.

[CrashTextDummie]

Yosarian, you are arguing against straight facts, it's as simple as that.

A full vig would have guaranteed victory if:
a) One of Hydra/Yos was a lone scum
b) Hydra and Yos were scum together
c) One of the neighbors was lone scum
d) One of the neighbors was scum with either Yos or Hydra
e) CTD was lone scum
f) CTD was scum with either one of Yos/Hydra

A full vig would not have guaranteed victory if:
a) Both neighbors were scum (impossible)
b) CTD was scum with one of the neighbors (irrelevant to this situation and irrelevant to me as I made this play)

Even if Hydra had come up town, this play would have guaranteed victory.

You are trying to argue why I wouldn't make this play as town. You are not even attempting to argue why I would make it as scum. Because as it played out, a full vig

would

have guaranteed a town win. And you are continuously ignoring the implications of a godfather, and how that possibility influenced my play.

I would appreciate it if Iecerint and Toasty acknowledged this post, I think it's pertinent to this discussion.

[CrashTextDummie]

Doctor is actually normatively viewed as a common scum fakeclaim, because it's not confirmable (you can always claim "WELP i protected someone else!").

Site meta on this changes periodically. I remember times when a doc claim was considered relatively safe for scum and I remember times when a doc claim got you lynched in a hurry. I don't know what the current meta on this subject is.

[CrashTextDummie]

We already know you're the scum rolecop, it's quite possible that you could have investigated Iece by this point and found out he was a two-shot vig.

You are flip flopping madly on this. One time it's "you're the scum rolecop, so you probably knew", then it's "scum had no way to know you were out of shots, Iecerint" and now we're back to "you're the scum rolecop, so you probably knew". Make up your mind.

I don't think I've seen a gunsmith-proof godfather except that one weird game in, what was it, 2006, 2007, something like that, where all the godfather's kills were listed as "killed with a sword" instead of "shot".

Are you talking about Mafia 55: Yakuza? Not only was I in that game, i

was

the godfather who's "no gun" status made a scum win possible.

I've never considered gunsmith to be a role that catches group scum without fail. The idea that a "gunsmith-proof" scum-role would be considered non-normal is new to me. I remember people where upset after that game, but as far as I'm aware, it set the precedent that you indeed shouldn't blindly trust a "no-gun" result.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm heartbroken that we lost this game, but only because I've enjoyed it tremendously. Huge roller-coaster all the way.

Hat's off to Yos who really did play a great game for the town, his reads were spot-on for the most part and I think they had to be for him to win it in the end. I really enjoyed sparring against him for the better part of a month and I'm proud I managed to make it that hard of a decision for Iece and Toasty. Congratulations to them as well, I don't think this was the easiest endgame decision ever.

Being scum with MBL is one item crossed off my mafiascum bucket list, and he was every bit as fun to scheme with as I'd hoped. The doc counter claim was as much his as it was mine. Ludi was an exemplary scum buddy as well, he played a damn good day game along with Thor in my humble estimation and was a valuable and pleasant presence in the scum QT as well. I'm sorry he didn't get to play some of the gambits he wanted, and I'm even more sorry I couldn't do more to avoid his lynch. This was the most rewarding and spirited scum team I've ever had the pleasure to play with, and for that I am very thankful.

My thanks also go to Amrun, who did a great job modding this game and always felt on top of things. I particularly enjoyed her flavor texts! I may have something to say about the balance of this game, but that's for after I've cried myself to sleep.

PS: Someone should have warned me not to read the dead QT.

[CrashTextDummie]

I imagine this is as much of a load off your shoulders as it is for me, eh Yos?

Congrats again, very well done!

[CrashTextDummie]

There was a lot of town power, but they were meant to foil each other, in certain ways.

Bwah, I told you so! But no one listens to the

doc rolecop

scumbag.

I think what bothered me most from a set-up point of view is how much of a burden the scum neighbor turned out to be. Not only did it put the spotlight on one of us immediately, it gave the town two more cleared players after Parama went under.

CTD played a valiant endgame, and might have won if he hadn't defended all scum to the death like the best teammate EVER!

To the DEATH!

[CrashTextDummie]

My memory's shaky--remind me what this was in reference to? (And, hey, I'm not exactly young myself, you know. October 8th will be my third scumday. Then again, when compared to CTD, MBL, and Yosarian2, everyone's young. )

This little gem after I started posting my intro analysis:

I get the distinct impression CTD is town.

...I mean, I realize that he's not reading the thread, but for him to be posting like THAT takes a special kind of stupid as scum.

I could point out any number of things which scream "town" to me, but he's effectively off of my list, for now.

As for SK-metas:
I have an irrational fear of NK-immune SK's, as I've lost to one as scum on more than one occasion. For them, optimal play is to avoid killing scum for a couple of days, at which point they become unlynchable. That's probably why I tried extra hard to get him lynched in this game. I was a bit surprised that the living townies didn't get the idea that maybe I just had a really strong read on him, the tells he dropped really are among the most reliable there are in my book.

[CrashTextDummie]

By the way, I'm glad you guys are enjoying the scum QT, had a feeling some of you would get a kick out of it.