NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[Yosarian2]

You are aware of what a guaranteed win is, right? There is no hard winning strategy provided by a gunsmith that doesn't rely on someone making the right judgement call.

A vig is not a "guaranteed win". 7 people alive going into night, 2 scum, 1 vig means town gets at most 3 kills scum kill, vig kill, 5 alive; lynch, scum kill, vig kill, game over. 2 lynches and 2 vig shots at most.) 4 kills with 8 people alive, in order to hit 2 scum, is hardly a "guarenteed win" at all, not even close.

On the other hand, one more cop investigation and we most likely would have had 4 confirmed innocents out of 6 people left alive the next day, and that is a guarenteed win. (If scum kill Iece, then town still has Xantos, Toasty, DH, and Xantos's innocent). And even if he hadn't gotten a confrimed innocent (say he had caught a scum intead), if you actually had been a doctor and had protected him, scum couldn't have killed him THAT night either, and we would have gotten ANOTHER investigation.

Scum had to kill Xantos in order to have a chance, and any real doc would have kept the cop alive that night. All of your "keeping the vig alive is a guarenteed win" stuff is just factually incorrect.

[CrashTextDummie]

A vig is not a "guaranteed win". 7 people alive going into night, 2 scum, 1 vig means town gets at most 3 kills scum kill, vig kill, 5 alive; lynch, scum kill, vig kill, game over. 2 lynches and 2 vig shots at most.) 4 kills with 8 people alive, in order to hit 2 scum, is hardly a "guarenteed win" at all, not even close.

I explained this before. No lynch the next day would have added another vig kill and allowed for

everyone

not named Iecerint to get lynched or vigged.

Your explanation for why Xanatos was a better kill only makes sense if YOU are scum. A gunsmith does not catch all scum. And I was considered about as confirmed as the neighbors.

[CrashTextDummie]

In other words, if Xanatos had gotten an innocent on you, I would NOT have considered you confirmed.

[CrashTextDummie]

Actually, that's not the argument I wanted to make, although it is true. If you were a godfather, going with Xanatos would have been even worse compared to Iece's guaranteed victory.

If Xanatos had gotten an innocent on you, that would not have made you unlynchable for hypo-scum me.

[Iecerint]

You think I made too many assumptions about your role, which is accurate, but you don't seem to realize how that only explains why I'd protect you as a doc, not why I wouldn't kill you as scum.

I agree with this.

1. I just skimmed MBL's posts that day and I don't see where he's trying "to get sapo-lynch-cred". I don't know where you're getting this from.

He may have called him KJ or the SK, but MBL definitely went kept trying to get credit for lynching the SK. This doesn't interact with either you or Yos, though; I was just using an example to illustrate how anyone can push for an SK lynch.

Define *short term". It took more than 3 days before Xanatos got into lynch range, and both Yos and Hydra had presented themselves as active and opinionated before. I certainly would have raised more than an eyebrow if they had just twiddled their thumbs, they were two of the possible scum candidates after all. There was a general anti-Xanatos sentiment among the town and Hydra was running a "you may not realize it, but Yos is confirmed scum to me" argument that wasn't going to convince anyone to vote outside of Xanatos/MBL. Also define "elsewhere". Where was Hydra gonna put his vote if not on Yos?

It doesn't matter how long the votes are elsewhere, as long as they aren't there long enough to put real votes there. In other words, Hydra not trying too hard to lynch Yos as an alternawagon is a bit null.

"Elsewhere" just means "anywhere else." Whether he had more than one functional third option is irrelevant AFAICT.

And considering that the neighbors had daytalk, it's not unreasonable that the same applied to the scum, re: pithy posts to indicate online status.

If this is the case, it's even MORE pathetic that hypo-Yos-Hydra couldn't get their shit together in 16 hours.

1. I just skimmed MBL's posts that day and I don't see where he's trying "to get sapo-lynch-cred". I don't know where you're getting this from.
2. MBL is a flipped caught-scum. It just took me as long as it took you to catch him.
3. I do not accept my failure to lynch Hydra as a point against me. I had the choice between two scum and happened to go for the one who's still alive.
4. If you hadn't been out of shots, you could add Hydra to my list.

I acknowledge that my reads have been bad. That doesn't mean that townreads on scum are pro-town. I could put Hydra on either list, so I don't think that differentiates.\

I wish I could get some thoughts from Toasty. He probably has different preconceptions and may do a better job of evaluating my perspective.

[Yosarian2]

A vig is not a "guaranteed win". 7 people alive going into night, 2 scum, 1 vig means town gets at most 3 kills scum kill, vig kill, 5 alive; lynch, scum kill, vig kill, game over. 2 lynches and 2 vig shots at most.) 4 kills with 8 people alive, in order to hit 2 scum, is hardly a "guarenteed win" at all, not even close.

I explained this before. No lynch the next day would have added another vig kill and allowed for

everyone

not named Iecerint to get lynched or vigged.

Huh? No, it wouldn't have. Assuming Iece had been an infinite shot vig, then the next day there would have been either 5 or 6 people alive, depending on how the nightkills went, and 2 scum alive. Either way, If the town had no-lynched, like you're saying, the scum had killed any townie, and the vig had fired incorrectly and shot a townie, then the scum would have won right away, that very night. There's no way that's a "guaranteed town victory".

[Iecerint]

CTD, the basis for assuming something might be up was that I'd skipped shots on N2 and N4, which is consistent with me either being an odd-night vig or a limited-shot vig.

Or a careful vig, but I mean come on.

[Iecerint]

And yes, I acknowledge that your assumption that I have extra shots would tend to make you kill me, not kill DX.

This is a pretty significant point, actually.

[Yosarian2]

And yes, I acknowledge that your assumption that I have extra shots would tend to make you kill me, not kill DX.

This is a pretty significant point, actually.

Why? A vig is huge in endgame, but in that situation, with multiple confirmed innocents, a confirmed cop+doc pair would have been significantly more useful to the town then even a full vig. Like I said, even 1 more cop confirmed innocent would have guaranteed a town victory at that point.

[CrashTextDummie]

Huh? No, it wouldn't have. Assuming Iece had been an infinite shot vig, then the next day there would have been either 5 or 6 people alive, depending on how the nightkills went, and 2 scum alive. Either way, If the town had no-lynched, like you're saying, the scum had killed any townie, and the vig had fired incorrectly and shot a townie, then the scum would have won right away, that very night. There's no way that's a "guaranteed town victory".

If you think there would have been 2 scum alive, you are delusional. I personally called for Hydra to be vigged, which would have been one scum down.

[Yosarian2]

Huh? No, it wouldn't have. Assuming Iece had been an infinite shot vig, then the next day there would have been either 5 or 6 people alive, depending on how the nightkills went, and 2 scum alive. Either way, If the town had no-lynched, like you're saying, the scum had killed any townie, and the vig had fired incorrectly and shot a townie, then the scum would have won right away, that very night. There's no way that's a "guaranteed town victory".

If you think there would have been 2 scum alive, you are delusional. I personally called for Hydra to be vigged, which would have been one scum down.

Lol. So, it's a "guaranteed win" only if the vig got lucky and shot scum that very night?

That dosn't sound very "guaranteed". Your defense is crumbling, CTD.

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD, the basis for assuming something might be up was that I'd skipped shots on N2 and N4, which is consistent with me either being an odd-night vig or a limited-shot vig.

Or a careful vig, but I mean come on.

I took your reasoning for the missed N2 kill at face value, I saw no reason to doubt that you were telling anything but the truth. Plus, I don't think skipping a night is optimal play for a limited shot-vig, I would have wanted to get my shot out, particularly if I was exposed and there was no certainty of a protection role being around.

I did consider an every-other-night variant after you missed the second shot, which I think I've mentioned before. Obviously, this didn't figure into my decision that night.

[Iecerint]

Why? A vig is huge in endgame, but in that situation, with multiple confirmed innocents, a confirmed cop+doc pair would have been significantly more useful to the town then even a full vig. Like I said, even 1 more cop confirmed innocent would have guaranteed a town victory at that point.

A hypo-GF messes with DX's half of the equation, so it's iffy either way.

Lol. So, it's a "guaranteed win" only if the vig got lucky and shot scum that very night?

Hydra is who I would've killed, so it would've let us win. You've actually stated as much before -- near the start of D6.

[CrashTextDummie]

Lol. So, it's a "guaranteed win" only if the vig got lucky and shot scum that very night?

That dosn't sound very "guaranteed". Your defense is crumbling, CTD.

1. At the time, I felt there was more likely to be one scum standing, not two.
2. The strategy was mostly a precaution for one of the neighbors being scum. Both neighbors aren't scum, I'm pretty sure the normal rules don't even allow for all-scum neighborhoods.
3. If Iecerint was not out of shots and had followed my kill suggestion, that

would

have been the result.

Your insinuation that it would have taken luck for this to work is simply ludicrous.

[ToastyToast]

I wish I could get some thoughts from Toasty. He probably has different preconceptions and may do a better job of evaluating my perspective.

Well I think your evaluation is a good one. The only problem I have is that we are seriously in a position with SOOO MUCH WIFOM, and I may have to make a simple educated guess.

@CTD: The way to convincing me is not by calling antagonizing Iecrint by saying YOU DISREGARD EVERYTHING and antagonizing me by WTF ARE U DOING. It comes off like scum struggling to get out of the net he's caught in.

Also,
1) To explain my mafia doc thing...
a) You claimed doctor. If we assume fake claims, then doctor would be the obvious one for mafia doctor. Having a claim and being unable to back it up without legitimately having said power is disastrous for scum. This is why someone who claims a doc most likely is not lying about a protective power.
b) There were only two kills night 2. Something was blocked. Perhaps it led scum team to discover the ID of the SK. (@IECERINT: Did you claim the Meransiel kill? Can't remember)
c) Town has lots of investigative power and an alien, which means a doc is not completely necessary
d) Why the hell would an SK claim doc? Like, it makes no legitimate sense.

[CrashTextDummie]

@CTD: The way to convincing me is not by calling antagonizing Iecrint by saying YOU DISREGARD EVERYTHING and antagonizing me by WTF ARE U DOING. It comes off like scum struggling to get out of the net he's caught in.

I think this is an unfair representation of my play. I have not accused Iecerint of disregarding everything, there are very specific issues that he weights in a way that I have serious trouble understanding, and I'm gonna state as much.

And it's a sad truth that I don't know what you're doing. "Wouldn't it have been a sexy gambit" was pretty much the only interaction I've gotten out of you in the last two days, until I specifically addressed you with a question, and the answer was something that left me gobsmacked.

I acknowledge that this situation is very frustrating to me and as a result I probably haven't played optimally.

1) To explain my mafia doc thing...
a) You claimed doctor. If we assume fake claims, then doctor would be the obvious one for mafia doctor. Having a claim and being unable to back it up without legitimately having said power is disastrous for scum. This is why someone who claims a doc most likely is not lying about a protective power.
b) There were only two kills night 2. Something was blocked. Perhaps it led scum team to discover the ID of the SK. (@IECERINT: Did you claim the Meransiel kill? Can't remember)
c) Town has lots of investigative power and an alien, which means a doc is not completely necessary
d) Why the hell would an SK claim doc? Like, it makes no legitimate sense.

a) I understand the thought process in principle. However I think it's rare for scum to be given safe claims in normal games. And considering the odds of any given scum role being in the game, the extension of this thought, "someone who claims doc is most likely not lying about having a protective power", should be that I'm most likely not scum
b) It has been clearly established, both by Iecerint's claim and by kill methods, that PBug and PetroleumJelly were SK kills
c) No role is completely necessary. Your idea on set-up compositions might disagree with our mod's, so I can accept this point
d) How should I know?

[CrashTextDummie]

Well I think your evaluation is a good one. The only problem I have is that we are seriously in a position with SOOO MUCH WIFOM, and I may have to make a simple educated guess.

Please try to recognize who has introduced all this WIFOM into this situation. There are instances in this game, my counter-claim, my Iecerint protection, that are not WIFOM but simply suicide if I was scum and therefore clear indicators that I am town.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, if you're reconsidering, please take your vote off.

[Iecerint]

CTD is correct regarding the missing kills. I did not target anyone except for N1 and N3.

Doctor is actually normatively viewed as a common scum fakeclaim, because it's not confirmable (you can always claim "WELP i protected someone else!").

[Yosarian2]

Why? A vig is huge in endgame, but in that situation, with multiple confirmed innocents, a confirmed cop+doc pair would have been significantly more useful to the town then even a full vig. Like I said, even 1 more cop confirmed innocent would have guaranteed a town victory at that point.

A hypo-GF messes with DX's half of the equation, so it's iffy either way.

Lol. So, it's a "guaranteed win" only if the vig got lucky and shot scum that very night?

Hydra is who I would've killed, so it would've let us win. You've actually stated as much before -- near the start of D6.

Oh, yeah, I was really hoping that night 5 you would kill Hydra and he would flip scum, absolutely, and when there was a no-kill I was thinking Hydra was likely bulletproof scum for that reason.

But in any case CTD is talking about "guaranteed town wins", and now what he's saying is that it's a town win only if you killed Hydra and he flipped scum; there's no way town-CTD would have been 100% sure Hydra was scum at the time (and, of course, CTD defended Hydra repeatedly over the next 2 days, so he can't even pretend that he was town who was confident Hydra was scum), so his whole "I didn't protect the cop because keeping the vig alive is a 100% guaranteed town win" just makes no sense from a town-CTD point of view.

The whole thing is an attempt on his part to do a run around a very old problem; when you're scum, if you can get off a convincing doc claim you're in like flinn, it's one of the more effective scum fake-claims, but the biggest weakness with is that a scum who's fakeclaimed doc has a hell of a time justifying it when he kills a claimed cop and the claimed cop doesn't get doc protection. That's the reason for this whole line of defense on CTD's part, but his whole "any pro-town doc would have kept the vig alive because the vig is a guarenteed town win" is simply not true.

[Amrun]

VC7.4

(0) Iecerint
(2) CrashTextDummie - Yosarian2, Iecerint
(1) Yosarian2 - CrashTextDummie
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: ToastyToast

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

V/LA:

Deadline: Sunday, September 25. 11 30pm EST.

Spoiler: Vote History

Iecerint - CrashTextDummie
CrashTextDummie - Yosarian2
Yosarian2 - CrashTextDummie
ToastyToast

[CrashTextDummie]

Yosarian, you are arguing against straight facts, it's as simple as that.

A full vig would have guaranteed victory if:
a) One of Hydra/Yos was a lone scum
b) Hydra and Yos were scum together
c) One of the neighbors was lone scum
d) One of the neighbors was scum with either Yos or Hydra
e) CTD was lone scum
f) CTD was scum with either one of Yos/Hydra

A full vig would not have guaranteed victory if:
a) Both neighbors were scum (impossible)
b) CTD was scum with one of the neighbors (irrelevant to this situation and irrelevant to me as I made this play)

Even if Hydra had come up town, this play would have guaranteed victory.

You are trying to argue why I wouldn't make this play as town. You are not even attempting to argue why I would make it as scum. Because as it played out, a full vig

would

have guaranteed a town win. And you are continuously ignoring the implications of a godfather, and how that possibility influenced my play.

I would appreciate it if Iecerint and Toasty acknowledged this post, I think it's pertinent to this discussion.

[CrashTextDummie]

Doctor is actually normatively viewed as a common scum fakeclaim, because it's not confirmable (you can always claim "WELP i protected someone else!").

Site meta on this changes periodically. I remember times when a doc claim was considered relatively safe for scum and I remember times when a doc claim got you lynched in a hurry. I don't know what the current meta on this subject is.

[ToastyToast]

I'll check that post out and I just skimmed yosarian again.
Hoping to make my decision by today, but bottom line is I'm making a decision b/w gut and logic, and as such it sucks ass

[Yosarian2]

You are trying to argue why I wouldn't make this play as town. You are not even attempting to argue why I would make it as scum. Because as it played out, a full vig

would

have guaranteed a town win. And you are continuously ignoring the implications of a godfather, and how that possibility influenced my play.

We've already been through this any number of times, CTD.

We already know you're the scum rolecop, it's quite possible that you could have investigated Iece by this point and found out he was a two-shot vig. You may also have come to the conclusion he was limited in some way by the fact that he did not shoot every night, as Iece just pointed out. Either way, that was really your only hope; if the cop had lived another night, you almost certainly would have lost.

The way you keep bringing up "godfather" and saying "not all scum show up as guilty as a gunsmith" as an excuse is kind of bizzare. I don't think I've seen a gunsmith-proof godfather except that one weird game in, what was it, 2006, 2007, something like that, where all the godfather's kills were listed as "killed with a sword" instead of "shot". I would be pretty stunned to see anything like that in a modern normal game; is "gunsmith-proof godfather" even an allowed role in normal games these days? The weakness of gunsmith is that a number of normal pro-town roles show up as "having a gun", and Sk's usually don't show up as having a gun, but you don't really see "gunsmith immune mafia members" or whatever you're talking about.