Mafia 59: Hell on Earth - Game over!

[Jalyn]

OK. I read the thread as I was waiting for the PM telling me I was in as a replacement, but I definitely need a reread.
I don't believe Cheesefan was voting for anyone, if I'm wrong, let me know and I'll unvote while I think.

I will say, the Panzer wagon was really quick (possibly not in actual days - I'll have to check, but certainly in number of posts) and I don't think that we can afford to have another day with little discussion like that.

[Jalyn]

Crimeny. I've reread the thread a couple of times now and I don't trust any of you. Still, given the setup of this game, I would think that even the mafia would be trying to lynch other mafia at this point. I would think that the mafia groups would probably be trying to lynch the person that the NK failed on as it seems likely that that was due to the "first NK immunity" that both groups have.

That said, I'm going to

vote:livingod

because that post really did look like "Oh shit, cop caught me, claim he's insane or scum."

I'm very open to hearing more from BM, Bogre & Fircoal. After all, at this point, simple odds say that at least 1 of them is scum.

[Jalyn]

brilliant work. You choose 3 people seemingly at random, and infer that perhaps one of them is scum. Great!

I didn't choose three people at random, I chose the three people that have been accused today. Literally, of the people that have votes, I voted for one and said I wanted to hear more from the other three because I understand the arguments behind the votes for them. As for inferring that at least one of them is scum... There are more scum than town. The chance of any three people all being town is low.

I dont see your logic that Mafia would be trying to lynch Mafia now. Ideally, Mafia would never lynch their buddies. Its only when they are under pressure that they may do so, but i dont see why NOW is any more pressuring than yesterday or tomorrow.
Unless u meant the fact that the scum groups would be trying to lynch each other, in which case i must say that this ought to always be their intention.

Of course I meant that mafia groups would be trying to lynch each other, not their own partners. And, yes, it should have been their intention from the start, I was noting that it was more important at this point.

Im quite wary of the fact that there is a large wagon on livingod, matching that on Bogre. Considering his comments at the start of the day, and his hammer yesterday, i would have thought there would have been a popular campaign to lynch him. The fact that we only have about 50% of players inclined to think he is scum, makes me think that possibly some of those on the Livingod wagon are scum. Its not concrete, but its a strong feeling

Which bring me to, I would be incredibly surprised if there isn't some scum on the livingod wagon. That was the whole point of the beginning of my post voting him. I think that there is also quite a bit of scum on Bogre's wagon. My gut feel, at this point, is they're both scum from opposite groups and the opposing team is trying to lynch them. Er. Did that make sense?

[Jalyn]

OK. The scum group that missed their kill last night can be absolutely certain that the person that they targetted last night was scum from the other group.

Anyway, I'm going to start the day the obvious way.

Vote: Battle Mage

[Jalyn]

Looking at all of Fircoal's posts, he said twice that he suspected Borge - but he never voted him. I don't think there is any reason to think that Fircoal got a guilty result on him.

[Jalyn]

Why would he have not added a vote to moving bandwagon of someone he had a guilty result for?

[Jalyn]

Because he didn't want to claim and strongly suspected someone without having investigated them? It makes no sense to me that a cop that knows someone is guilty wouldn't vote them.
I'm not saying the Bogre doesn't look guilty as all heck, but I don't think Fircoal had a guilty result on him.

Besides, Battle Mage hammered livingod directly after several posts of "for god's sake everyone hold off so we can talk" and without even coming close to waiting for a claim.

[Jalyn]

Jalyn: Why do you suspect a group missed thier NK?

Well, unless I missed something from the OP, I'd say that the fact that there was only one kill last night after we'd lynched the doctor means that one of the mafia groups didn't make their kill.

And I'm still waiting for anyone of the people claiming that Fircoal hinted to a guilty result on Bogre to explain why in the world he would have not voted with the existing bandwagon on Bogre if he had a guilty result.

[Jalyn]

I just reread all of Battle Mage's posts.

unvote

I'm going to reread this whole thing. Again.

Right. And the fact that there have been 3 missing kills over the course of the game means that the jailkeeper must have stopped at least one of them. Which might be useful if we had any idea who he had targeted.

Right. That's what I said in my first post. Well, minus the "we lynched the jailkeeper before he could claim and therefore don't have his info" part.

[Jalyn]

Well, that ruins my beautiful plan to try to lynch Jack for the absurd pushing of the "Fircoal must have known Borge was Borg and hinted at it without ever voting for him" thing.

So, we'll go with the second person to agree with that idea after I pointed out how ridiculous it was,

vote:Nightfall

until a huge bandwagon forms and I have to jump off to avoid yet ANOTHER 3 or 4 day day.

With another single night kill, the Aliens now know a certain Borg. (Jack was alien, therefore had to be killed by the Borg, meaning the Alien's missed their night kill.) The only real question is whether the Borg still know an Alien for certain or if Jack was their missed kill from the night before last.

[Jalyn]

Good points, Yosarian. I might be able to be swayed that way.

Other thoughts that I had while driving home tonight:

1) As the Borg had to have missed their kill last night, that means the Aliens killed Picard.

2) Two one kill nights after livingod's lynch means that while his day game rather sucked, his night game was fairly on target

Nightfall, eh, I wanted to go after Jack, I can't. Yesterday I wasn't sure what to think of the Bogre wagon - I couldn't decide if everyone on it was scum pretending to be dumb or if there were townies that were actually being swayed by an inept argument. After Bogre turned out to be town, and my suspicions of Jack were proven to be true, I pretty much think that the entire wagon was built and comprised of scum.

[Jalyn]

Fact is Bogre's own play let himself down, the hammer of Panzer, the general lack of content. I'd have voted him without any suspicion from Fircoal, because I honestly thought with the ratio of town to scum, he'd be a bad guy. It's pretty gutting to think we've lynched four townies so far all through their own shoddy play.

Livingod's play let himself down aswell, for heavens sake if he's blocked a kill which looks likely, being as we keep having one night kills, he should have given us one scum, as it is he didn't even claim when he was on the hill.

Yos I see where you coming from with M4yhem, his hammer was indicative of not caring one iota about Bogre's allegiance, be it that Bogre turned up scum which I hasten to think he would or town.

I'd also like to hear from BM aswell for he seems to think both ~n9v~ and Milkman are scum, as far as I can tell the only way he'd know what they are is if they're opposite scum teams. He comments above in 663 he has his reasons for finding ~n9v~ suspicious, well I'd like to hear them please BM.

Bogre may have looked suspicious, though honestly, he never said all that much, he just hammered panzer. The problem that I had with the wagon was the almost universal "Fircoal hinted about him" after I'd already shown exactly how ridiculous that theory was, or, you know, see everything I said yesterday.

I have no idea what you are trying to say in your paragraph about M4yhem.

I agree that I'd like to hear from BM.

[Jalyn]

Just noticed that that post you mention, way back on march 25'th, was the last significant post you made, Akbar, and that that was back on day 3. Did nothing that happan during the end of day 3, or all of day 4, or so far on day 5 change your mind at all? Nothing you see worth commenting on in the last 2 days?

Do you mean other than his day 4 post on March 31st where he voted Battle Mage? That either an unfortunate miss or an interesting lie.

I'm very interested in the where the votes went yesterday. I would have thought that the Borg, knowing that they knew an Alien on day 4, would have at least tried to lynch that person, freeing up their night kill. (In fact, that's why I wasn't sure what to think about the Borge wagon at the time, I thought that the crap logic used to build it might be masking scum who knew Borge was scum. They mostly went into my mental file of people to watch. Then Borge turned out to be town and last night Jack was killed and turned out to be alien. I would think that that means that Jack was their missed kill, but he had no votes at all yesterday. All in all, I don't think I understand what the Borg are doing. Either they never tried to lynch the guy that they knew was alien scum or they didn't try to kill the guy that they knew was alien scum (which would probably make Battle Mage the known alien scum, as he was the only one to get votes other the Borge yesterday.) I can even see why they wouldn't have bothered killing him during the night game, as his was the second biggest wagon, he seems lynchable - why waste the kill?
Today, after the Aliens miss a kill, there's a bandwagon on M4yhem. This is also interesting, and as that, to me, makes him more likely Borg than Alien and the Borg are currently up in numbers, makes him a reasonable play to me, not that I'm putting my vote there yet - these last few days show this town to be WAY too hammer happy.

So, to condense what I said in a long drawn out way above. I'm wondering if M4yhem was the attempted kill by the Aliens last night and confirmed Borg to 3 people, Battle Mage was the attempted kill by the Borg two nights ago and confirmed Alien to them and we now have two rival scum teams trying to lynch the guy that they know to be scum.

[Jalyn]

Possibly not. I like to muse about things. I forgot one of my "musings" in that post though.

On the off chance that we manage to lynch someone that's not town, I wonder if, once the lynch has become apparent, it would make sense for the lynchee to announce to the town who the missed kill was... It could be win/win for the scum group and the town. The scum group frees up their night kill and the town gets a sure lynch. (Doesn't make sense for the scum group to lie - if we're lynching Alien, they're two down. If we're lynching Borg, they'll be back to tied with the Aliens.) The downside is that it does free up the night kill, making it more likely that town dies at night.

This means that anyone that hammers before the lynchee has a chance to speak is incredibly suspect, of course.

[Jalyn]

I haven't stated anything as fact. I have made a lot of inferences based on three facts that are blatantly obvious:
1. There has only been one night kill for the last two nights (actually, every night, but no inferences could be made about the first ones.)
2. The Worf role was dead before the last two missed kills.
3. The Borg were able to kill an Alien

Now, there are some possibilities that I haven't covered:
1. One of the missed night kills could have been a scum group forgetting to put in a night kill
2. One of the missed night kills could have been the two scum groups hitting the same person.

The reason I haven't covered them is that they seem unlikely. This hasn't been a game with a lot of inactives, I doubt either scum group has missed sending in a night kill. As for the second option, it's actually not possible (I mean, one of the non-kills could have been because of this, but both scum groups have missed the night kill because of the protection at least once, assuming no non-sends.) The Borg had to have had a protection non-kill because Jack is dead. The Aliens rather obviously didn't target Jack last night. All of this brings me to the conclusion that both the Borg and the Aliens have managed to figure out a member of the other group.

Now, I originally assumed that Jack was the missed kill for the Borg and that they targetted him again last night. This may be the case and would mean that the Borg no longer have a certain Alien target. The other possibility is that they've chosen to try to lynch the person that they know is Alien because they think s/he is lynchable. That would mean that you or M4yhem are the most likely to be the "known" Alien, with you being even more likely because people were trying to lynch you yesterday.

[Jalyn]

Interesting that you focused so specifically on that option, BM, seeing as I gave three options: Jack could have been the missed kill, M4yhem could be an alien or you could be an alien.

Anyway, if the scum groups were logical, they should have been going after the other scum group the entire game. The other scum group is their biggest threat, regardless of the size of the town. There would be some searching for the town power roles as well, but killing vanilla townies should have been a disappointment.

[Jalyn]

Nightfall, the possibilities are:
Night one: one of the groups targetted a person livingod protected/the groups both targetted Twito/the borg hit an alien

Night two: one of the groups targetted a person livingod protected/the groups both targetted Smashy/the borg hit an alien

Night three: the groups both targetted Fircoal/the Borg hit an Alien

Night four: the Aliens hit a Borg

[Jalyn]

I am thinking M4yhem may be the play today, but I'm not putting my vote anywhere near him for several days. I learned my lesson from the livingod wagon, that I was part of, that went by way too fast.

Actually, there's been a little discussion of my analysis of the no kills, but no one's commented on my reasoning for voting Nightfall (other than Nightfall, who noted I was picking him out of a crowd, but didn't comment on the general reasoning) is there anyone who thinks that the idea that Fircoal had hinted at a guilty result on Bogre but wasn't willing to vote for him makes any sense? I suppose I should clarify that with "that didn't use that reasoning to vote for Bogre yesterday."

[Jalyn]

And here I wasn't expecting to get a positive night kill result until we were ready to lynch someone

I'd still prefer that we didn't have a quick lynch, and the way that this town hammers, I'm going to hold off moving my vote over. Besides, I'd really like Yosarian to let us know if Jack was the missed night kill that they went after twice, if M4yhem was the missed kill and that's why they were trying to lynch him or if there is a third known alien.

[Jalyn]

BM is actually looking less like scum to me at this point, based both on my logic from up thread and his posts. He hasn't dropped off the list entirely, but both theoper_COD & spectrumvoid moved further up than him.

Also, yeah, Yos is scum, but he is higher on your list than the guy who

claimed

scum? Interesting.

M4yhem, I'm sure you're not going to answer much, but could you tell us if you missed any kills before last night?

[Jalyn]

Yosarian, I've broken down the night kills better than that.

Night one: one of the groups targetted a person livingod protected/the groups both targetted Twito/the borg hit an alien

Night two: one of the groups targetted a person livingod protected/the groups both targetted Smashy/the borg hit an alien

Night three: the groups both targetted Fircoal/the Borg hit an Alien

Night four: the Aliens hit a Borg

To be more specific, the Aliens apparently didn't understand Fircoal's hints at all and thought that he was the Newt. They had to have targetted Fircoal night 3. It is possible that the Borg ALSO targetted Fircoal, correctly identifying him as Picard, but the aliens certainly targetted Fircoal. This is certain because there was only one kill last night, and it was an Alien. If the Aliens had missed a kill on night 3, their kill on night 4 would have worked.

All of which means that the timing is exactly right for Alien M4yhem to have just realized that you are Borg by their night kill miss last night. He wouldn't have known this yesterday, as you assert, because the Aliens didn't miss their kill Night 3. From your confusion here, I'm guessing that both the Aliens & Borg targetted Fircoal on Night 3.

[Jalyn]

Those are not the possibilities.

The Aliens could not have targetted Borg until last night, unless they actually forgot to send in a night kill last night, which I don't think anyone is seriously considering. There is only one night kill protection per group. The Aliens missed their kill last night, meaning that that used up the Borg's one night kill protection.

The options are:
Night One:
1. Borg & Alien both target Twito
2. Borg target Twito, Alien target someone livingod protected
3. Alien target Twito, Borg target someone livingod protected
4. Alien target Twito, Borg target Alien

Night Two:
1. Borg & Alien both target Smashy
2. Borg target Smashy, Alien target somone livingod protected
3. Alien target Smashy, Borg target someone livingod protected
4. Alien target Smashy, Borg target Alien

Night Three:
1. Borg & Alien both target Fircoal
2. Alien target Fircoal, Borg target Alien

Night Four:
1. Borg target Jack, Alien target Borg

For Yos' "M4yhem is a Borg who just THINKS that I'm an Alien" scenario to be true, the Borg would have had to have targetted an Alien on Night 1 or 2 and Yos on the other night. The Alien that they targetted couldn't have been Jack or M4yhem would know, from the fact that Jack turned out to be an Alien that Yos was probably protected. Then they would have two living players that they had been unable to target and M4yhem would have flipped a coin to determine which one he was going to gambit to get lynched. This is not impossible, but it's not likely.

If we lynch town today, we'll be at 3t-3a-4b going into night. The alien off a borg and the borg off... either alien or town.
So it's either 3t-2a-3b or 2t-3a-3b.

We lynch an Alien, we go into night at 4t-2a-4b. The alien off a borg and the borg off ... either alien or town.
So it's either 4t-1a-3b or 3t-2a-3b

Can someone that actually runs stats show me which of these two circumstances is better, because I'm not sure.

The other thing I'm wondering is if it would actually make sense, for the Aliens, if Yos is town and M4yhem is Borg (note a BIG if), for one of them to come out and say so. They could also give us the Borg that they know , bring the unknown Borg to two.

Or maybe I just REALLY want to see the dueling Alien claims that I expected when I saw Yosarian2 had posted.

[Jalyn]

So you recognize the stats question but have no comment on it? Simple question, really, is it better for the town to lynch an Alien or a townie, by the numbers? I don't do stats.

And you've missed answering the "of the two players that M4yhem would have had to choose between, why did he decide that you were the one that was scum?"

[Jalyn]

Also, M4yhem, what information are you willing to give us about your night kills?

[Jalyn]

unvote vote:Yosarian2

Mod, what would happen if we had a deadlocked tie vote?

[Jalyn]

i totally agree with your logic here. I still think you are scum, but i think you are more likely to be Alien, (due to your vote, and general confidence in M4yh3m) which makes you a pretty low priority for lynching atm.
i also agree with you about the Newt.
@SV-wtf are you doing? if M4yh3m gets killed now, you are so moving onto my scum-list.

we really need someone to hammer Yos now imho, although if M4yh3ms claim is genuine, the Borg may hammer M4yh3m first.

BM

Battle Mage, why are you so sure that I am scum? We have two confirmed scum now. M4yhem is Alien, and Yos is Borg. That is if M4yhem is telling the truth in the first place. I think it's safer to kill Yos, and then M4yhem. Because if the numbers are 3-2 like they will be after this night no matter who gets lynched, it's better than a possible 3-1 situation for the town. That means that there are 8 people left: 3 Borg, 1 Alien, 1 Newt, and 3 Townies. That would put it into a lynch or lose situation. Yos is the safer lynch today.

Vote: Yos2

Spectrumvoid has seemed Borg scum to me for her last few posts. N9V, I agree, is probably Alien scum. I've currently got Nightfall pegged as the third Borg. I'm not sure on the last of each group.

[Jalyn]

(shrug) I donno. M4yhem always thinks I'm scum. And the fact that he made the claim pointed at me might have something to do with the fact I attacked him today.

Like I pointed out before, he seems to have been assuming I was scum with no logical reason since at least yesterday, which does not fit with the timing he's claimed.

And you still haven't answered my other point. If you didn't try to kill me until last night, why were you so sure I was scum yesterday, with abosultly no reason to be? In fact, it's pretty obveous that the scum would only kill someone they thought to be scum, and pretty much no one thought I was scum yesterday, so why would your scum group want to target me last night? Dosn't make any sense. No, your scum group probably targeted me night 1, because you seem to think I'm a threat as a player, and failed, and you've just assumed I'm scum ever since.

Is it just me, or is there a basic discrepancy in these two quotes?

I did not point out that the Borg most likely missed a kill because of a livingod protection in the first two days. I suggested that it was a possibility. I now rather think that the Borg hit Alien during the first two nights and then both they and the Alien targetted Fircoal on Night three.

[Jalyn]

Sorry, one of the first two nights, obviously.

And the descrepancy is between

In fact, it's pretty obveous that the scum would only kill someone they thought to be scum, and pretty much no one thought I was scum yesterday

and your comments about M4yhem already targetting you yesterday.

[Jalyn]

Do you know something I don't Yos? Because I don't know that first two night kills weren't Borg and the Aliens didn't miss their kills.

[Jalyn]

OK. If Yos is town, 2, at least, of milkman, Nightfall & theoper_COD are Alien. That would make M4yhem Borg. Along with, probably, ~N9V~ & Battle Mage.

Spectrumvoid would then either be a confused townie or a sneaky Borg
Akbar & TheJiveMachine could be anything at all.

If Yos is Borg, so are spectrumvoid & Nightfall.
Then the Alien are M4yhem & ~N9V~

Battle Mage then feels town to me.


I've been tossing up flipping my vote to M4yhem for several reasons. Yos felt more like town to me up to M4yhem's accusation. M4yhem is the definite scum - and I don't think it is yet fatal for us to lynch an Alien instead of a Borg. It puts us at 4 town, 1 alien, 3 borg tomorrow morning, unless one of the scum group misfires.

My problem is that I don't understand why M4yhem would give up at the point that he did and target someone he didn't know was an Alien, if he was Borg. There were two votes against him and I was wavering. That's still only halfway to a lynch.

I'm positive of two things:
1. M4yhem is scum
2. Yos is not an Alien

[Jalyn]

unvote

4 townie, 1 alien, 3 Borg if we lynch M4yhem and he's an alien. We should then go into night at 4 townie, 1 alien, 2 Borg.

3 townie, 2 alien, 3 Borg if we lynch Yosarian and he's town. We should then go into night at 3 townie, 2 alien, 2 Borg.

The first of these appears to be a better bet to me.

vote:M4yhem

[Jalyn]

Again, I'll be voting for Yos at some point today.

[Jalyn]

Why not now? Because he's two votes away from a lynch already and I see no need to bring him to -1 with four actual posts in the thread for this day.

[Jalyn]

If I vote for Yos right now we have no actual day. That would be ridiculous. There are people who hadn't even talked in thread this day before we lost data. I am not lynching someone without having a record of how everyone feels about it to analyze later.

[Jalyn]

For crying out loud. I don't want to lynch him 5 recorded posts into the day and I'm a borg?
Jules hasn't posted once. I don't think Nightfall has posted once. (In the lost posts or the new day.) I'm not going to remember everything that everyone said that's been lost. I'd like to be able to see SOMETHING when I look back at this day other than "OK, we lynched a borg in less than one page"

Also, Yos, as you're going to be lynched, I'll reitterate my request of "Will you tell us if the Borg still have a known Alien other than N9V, M4yhem and Jack? If it makes you feel better, you could phrase it as "If I was borg, I would know that XXX is Alien" " I wouldn't mind conclusively outing the last Alien before we go to night, if possible.

Also? Her. Damn it.

[Jalyn]

Well, seeing as it's gone, the exact same list I posted before:

Alien:
N9V
Jules/Battle Mage

Borg:
Yosarian2
Spectrumvoid
Nightfall/theoper_COD

Town:
Jalyn
Battle Mage/Jules
theoper_COD/Nightfall

[Jalyn]

I saw nothing of the kind, Yosarian - N9V seemed very intent on lynching you yesterday. To the point of saying that you looked more scummy than the person that had claimed scum. Hell, I believe N9V was my "sure" alien if M4yhem turned up alien. BM mentioned the same thing.

Jules and Nightfall are the only one's that haven't checked back in, right? I'll vote (for Yos, obviously) after we've heard from both of them.

[Jalyn]

Why N9V is an Alien:

Hmm, I think it is looking towards all three, M4yhem, Yos, and BM are all scum. BM is least on that list, Yos is highest.

Fos: Yos, M2yhem, BM

Not ready to vote yet, we need to discuss the day, not do another quick lynch.

Just after M4yhem's claim - he distances himself by being suspicious of M4yhem but considers Yosarian2 to be more likely than M4yhem to be scum - when M4yhem had just claimed scum.

Battle Mage, why are you so sure that I am scum? We have two confirmed scum now. M4yhem is Alien, and Yos is Borg. That is if M4yhem is telling the truth in the first place. I think it's safer to kill Yos, and then M4yhem. Because if the numbers are 3-2 like they will be after this night no matter who gets lynched, it's better than a possible 3-1 situation for the town. That means that there are 8 people left: 3 Borg, 1 Alien, 1 Newt, and 3 Townies. That would put it into a lynch or lose situation. Yos is the safer lynch today.

Vote: Yos2

Followed by:

Let me clear that up better. We lynch M4yhem today, and he is Alien, that leaves it to a 4-2. Yos is killed and turns out to be Borg, its then 3-2. And Alien targets whoevr and turns out to be alien, then it's 3-1.

With the same theory of scum groups as above, we lynch yos, and its 3-3. M4yhem dies, 3-2, and someone else could even it up 2-2.

Also, I say it's a safer bet if the Newt doesn't veiw anyone tonight.

He's no longer even pretending to hedge his bets, he knows that Yos is Borg and M4yhem is Alien.

With the fact that M4yhem ended up Alien, it's obvious that N9V is as well.


If the fact that M4yhem turned up Alien wasn't enough to sway people to lynching Yos, the fact that N9V is so obviously Alien should do it.

Why Spectrumvoid is Borg:

Before M4yhem's claim:

I'd especially like Akbar to explain how he came up with his list of who's what alignment.

My opinion: I believe scum would prefer to kill off the other scum group. I don't think we should even bother speculating about this though, since I don't think scum knows the alignment of people. (to theopor: and why are you assuming that scum-yos/m4yhem would know scum-m4yhem/yos's alignment?)

Regarding the lack of double kills, I think it's unlikely that scum targeted the same person. Reason being the people who were night-killed were not that high profile, and I don't really see a definite reason why they were killed. So to go by probability, I'd say it's unlikely that both groups of scum targeted the same person. I believe the cross-kill ability or the doc ability worked somehow.

I don't think Yos is scum. This is because I haven't seen a scum-tell from him. Unless I've gotten this wrong, the case against him is his attack on m4yhem, yes? I think m4yhem is possibly scummy, together with the rest on the various wagons. So I don't see anything wrong with Yos going after m4yhem.

I'm leaning towards BM scum too, for vague reasons which I will put down very soon.

Right after the claim:

Well played yos. I must admit I didn't suspect that at all. I see no reason for m4yhem to lie, since I've already stated that I believe scum would try to target the other scum.

vote: Yos

After enough people vote M4yhem (and at least one townie, because not all of Nightfall, theoper_COD, milkman, Yos & spectrumvoid can be Borg), she decides that maybe she doesn't need to bus Yos after all:

unvote, vote m4yhem Lynch -1 guys.

I still don't see the necessity for us to try to predict who is of which scum group since lynching scum is good. And I don't think we have enough information to do a successful prediction.

I also do not believe mafia is a stats game, so I disagree with the running of stats part. However, I am voting m4yhem instead of Yos purely because I have decided that it's safer to lynch the claimed scum. This is in the light of reading the Yos might not be scummy posts.

Why Nightfall could be Borg:

Votes:m4yhem and backhands the people voting Yos today.
I guess we know roughly where to start looking for m4yhem's partners.

And, that's all we got from Nightfall about the M4yhem/Yosarian2 situation yesterday.

Why theoper_COD could be Borg:

The first person to show doubt in M4yhem:

First off Jalyn is correct we shouldn't rush things here. Secondly I'm not sure if I believe M4yhem's alien claim, he's just as likely to be Borg. He's been rather opportunistic and claimed but that doesn't make him confirmed alien or make Yos the play today. The only problem we have is that the only confirmed bad guy is Jack so I'm going to scootle back and see if there's been any interaction or distancing between Jack and M4yhem or Jack and Yos.

He then suggests the very argument that Yosarian will use later to avoid being lynched yesterday:

Or Yos could be town and M4yhem is lieing out of his ass, but that's far-fetched in the extreme. Fact that both haven't died yet, is another reason I'm wary of both. M4yhem has acted scummy and Yos seems intent on having him taken down. The only other side issue is that I'd expect Yos to have been a favourite for the Worf role to block, so it's possible that Livingod protected Yos and M4yhem whichever scum group he's from, missing his kill that night. I don't think it's certain that M4yhem is telling the truth with regard the lack of a kill last night. Infact if I was scum and Yos wasn't in my team, I wouldn't be waiting until night four to take him out. I'd be doing it night one.

As I say I'm unsure which scumbag to vote, but only because M4yhem has played the gambit first I'm thinking he may be Borg. So am leaning that way currently.

Starting with the lost posts today, he expresses concern that Yos wasn't the Alien night kill last night using it as evidence that Yos might be innocent and confusion over what is going on.

Personally, theoper_COD is lowest on my list. Something strikes me as an innocent that is confused rather than a Borg trying to confuse everyone else.

BM - you're making me think that you don't want Jules to post so that he doesn't make you look like N9V's partner...

[Jalyn]

Actually, I was referring to the multiple "this day should end now" posts. I pointed out days ago that Jules had yet to post.

[Jalyn]

N9V, I've already posted my listing of who's in which group. (Wouldn't be bad to get those from everyone, I suppose.) The only change since then is that the Jules/BM as alien is becoming closer to a toss up of who's who to me.

I will be voting for Yos before I leave work tomorrow, Jules showing up or not, unless things pick up a bunch.

[Jalyn]

*sigh* That's NOT picking up a bunch.

vote:Yosarian2

[Jalyn]

Here's the possibilities:

Lynch N9V

1 alien - 2 borg - 2 town

0 alien - 1 borg - 2 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit alien)
0 alien - 2 borg - 1 town (aliens hit town, borg hit alien)(game over - borg win)
1 alien - 1 borg - 1 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit town)
1 alien - 2 borg - 0 town (aliens hit town, borg hit town)(game over - borg win)
1 alien - 2 borg - 1 town (aliens hit town, borg hit same town)(effectively a borg win/possible no win)

No lynch

2 alien - 2 borg - 2 town

1 alien - 1 borg - 2 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit alien)
1 alien - 2 borg - 1 town (aliens hit town, borg hit alien)(effectively a borg win/possible no win)
2 alien - 1 borg - 1 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit town)(effectively an alien win/possible no win)
2 alien - 2 borg - 0 town (aliens hit town, borg hit town)(game over - no one wins)
2 alien - 2 borg - 1 town (aliens hit town, borg hit same town)

Lynching N9V has both the best case and worst case scenarios. I'm going to again play away from the worst case scenario and

vote:No Lynch

. This forces both scum groups to try to hit the other group because if they don't and the other group does, they lose in the night game. (My logic, for the "effective" wins is that it's not possible to lynch the higher group due to numbers, the game goes back into night, probably a no lynch again. If the high group hits the low group, they win regardless of the other's kill. If they hit town, they either win if the low group hits the same person or no win if one of their members dies.)

[Jalyn]

With the two scum groups even:

A) If I were to vote to lynch, it would be for the claimed scum.

B) The numbers would simply flip if we lynched Borg.

I didn't bother running the numbers if we lynched town, because I didn't think it likely that we would lynch someone other than the claimed scum.

Here they are:

2 alien - 2 borg - 1 town

1 alien - 1 borg - 1 town (aliens hit borg, borg hits alien)
1 alien - 2 borg - 0 town (aliens hit town, borg hit alien)(borg win)
2 alien - 1 borg- 0 town (aliens hit borg, borg hit alien)(alien win)
2 alien - 2 borg - 0 town (aliens hit town, borg hit same town)(No win)

Yeah. Not a good idea.

[Jalyn]

I'm still with

Alien:
N9V
Skruffs

Borg:
SV
Nightfall/theoper_COD

Town:
Jalyn
theoper_COD/Nightfall

[Jalyn]

I'm going to

unvote

while I think. I think it would only need 3 votes to send this into night, and I think there needs to be more discussion (among other things, it'll let Skruffs contradict himself even more.) I'll go back to voting no lynch later.

[Jalyn]

*Sigh*

I need to think things over faster. And, probably, better. Anyway, I took the time out to decide whether I should claim. Hadn't made the decision when theoper_COD sent it to night, so, like I said - faster & better would be good.