NY 170: Georgetown II (Game Over)

[The Fonz]

Tebow

, why do you think that 504 is a town post?

It embodies the 'Damn the torpedoes' kind of attitude that I expect from town ABR. He's not responding to being accused of baselessly wagoning by coming up with some convoluted post-hoc rationalization that raises the question of why he didn't say it in the first place - he's just like "Yeah, it's day one, he's scummy enough, and we can't piss about forever." Someone's probably going to try to paint that as scummy, but it doesn't seem like ABR cares that much. Town.

Page 22 - I despise Tebow's 525. A lynch will give us an alignment which will let us see how other players treated the lynched player, thus there is more evidence. Also your argument that wagoning emogirl to get attention off emogirl is faulty, because wagons lead to lynches and then she won't be such a topic of discussion. Speaking of which, I feel as though since the heat has fallen off her she has posted less. Further, if two people have the same feeling about something there must be something acknowledgeable about it. Plus, the call out on "giving up" is just so so terrible. I truly do think Day 1 is a wash and nothing is convincing me otherwise. Thus I think a flip would be a solid piece of INFORMATION which is mod-guaranteed to be true.

Just FYI, I really, really hate this kind of reasoning too, likely far more than you 'despise' mine. Again, ANY flip is a solid piece of information that is mod-guaranteed to be true. Plus if day one is a crapshoot, why are you now making this super detailed post-by-post account of the whole game? Alternatively, if this kind of very wordy analysis is pro-town, why weren't you doing it earlier?

Page 18 - Aegor's vote is reasonless AGAIN, this time on me. Tebow maligns my words and assumes that since my reason was defend-able, I had wanted to get off that wagon the whole time and was thus waiting for a reason, when that isn't the truth.

No, you're misrepresenting me. Firstly, you say 'that's not the truth.' Well one, even if you're correct, I'm not fucking psychic. Secondly, that's not what I said. I'm not

assuming

that because your reason was defensible, you must be scum. That's perverse. What I'm saying is that we wouldn't expect remotely competent scum to act in an utterly transparent manner. Therefore, just because there

is[/b] a plausible town motive, that doesn't prove that the act was definitely town-motivated, because any decent scum would be trying to portray their action as town-motivated: there's also a plausible scum motive, to try to get the heat you were feeling off of you. Note also that when called out on your unvote, you immediately pulled out the 'Well I could have unvoted earlier and didn't' card, which tells me that you are well aware that unvoting without some kind of excuse would have looked even scummier.

And you didn't even go 'She did these things that are unlikely to come from scum, therefore she's probably town.' You went 'She's still kinda scummy, but because of these things, I'm going to unvote.' That totally keeps your options open to return to emogirl later on. That does not say 'town motive' to me.

[The Fonz]

God damn altslip.

Mod, since it's kinda pointless now, can I replace my own alt?

[The Fonz]

I've not even used my main in ages... turns out seven years of logging onto the same account creates a habit. Didn't even notice the different color scheme...

[The Fonz]

V/LA over the weekend: Birthday celebrations.

[The Fonz]

@zdenek

@The Fonz

Are you pushing for a Chevre lynch? Are you trying to make sure you only get the right kind of votes?

1) Yes 2) Define 'right kind of votes.'

[The Fonz]

@the fonz
Well you didn't seem to like the votes from Nobody Special or Albert B Rampage on the Chevre wagon. I'm wondering why, if you really do want the wagon to build.

Right, here's the thing, my views aren't fixed. When new evidence comes along, I re-evaluate things. The Emogirl and Chevre wagons, to me, seemed utterly opposed to one another - the Chevre wagon was largely put together of people who hated the emogirl wagon but weren't, until that point, able to coalesce on one wagon. Supporting both wagons when they seem based on opposite readings of the gamestate felt dissonant and therefore scummy. When someone jumps on a wagon, even one you like, at a point and with and explanation (or lack thereof) that seems like scum piling on a mislynch, you reconsider the wagon. I pressed Albert for a bit, got a response I felt was town, and this then made me comfortable rejoining the wagon.

On Brian Skies, his scumhunting is better than he's getting credit for. His case against Slandaar, when made clearly, is not just that Slandaar has been voting for easy targets, but that he's voting for

all

the easy targets. Normally, a town player will read some of the poor players as scum, more so than the good players, but will have one or two where they feel the case is overblown and the player is trying, but bad. If you suspect all the 'low hanging fruit' then it seems, as Brian said, that you're not trying to sort through the pile. Brian's 'ten page lurk' was Thursday-Monday which seems more likely to be a 'real life intervened' break than a deliberate lurk.

Slandaar is trying to make the 'I'm a townie who's not that into it' case, which is a scum thing to say more often than random, but not a slamdunk. I really, really don't like his reaction to coming under fire, which feels like 'strawman your accuser as much as possible.' Slandaar is a clearly better lynch than Brian.

How-fuckin-ever, Chevre's not done any scumhunting since the wagon on him died. His 623 feels very reactive (and his response to why he did something he admits he doesn't think is pro-town is poor) while #715 just feels like posting for the sake of posting. I'd like people to reconsider this wagon.

Emerald is... unhhhh. Tough to read. Not today's lynch, I don't think.

[The Fonz]

Also note that Chevre's response to Zdenek in 623 is still a list of things that could apply to literally any lynch, so not a reason to pursue Emogirl specifically.

[The Fonz]

Fonz who do you think is scum that isn't low hanging fruit?

That depends entirely on who you class as 'low hanging fruit,' doesn't it? Both you and Chevre are MafiaScum veterans, so I'd say I'm not going for low-hanging fruit at all.

Who do you think is a poor player but town?

[The Fonz]

(2) Brian's argument seemed based pretty heavily around two fake towntells, neither of which looked like faking a towntell to me.
[/quote]

What matters here isn't if he's

right.

The question is, is he sincere? 'Feigning ignorance of the setup' is an accusation I've heard town make a lot.

[The Fonz]

That depends entirely on who you class as 'low hanging fruit,' doesn't it? Both you and Chevre are MafiaScum veterans, so I'd say I'm not going for low-hanging fruit at all.

Who do you think is a poor player but town?

Experience doesn't mean anything

Then I'm really confused by what you mean by low hanging fruit. If it's not inexperienced or poor (or both) players, what is it? Because that's what 'low hanging fruit' has meant every time I've seen anyone use the term on site.

but it is interesting you diverted to that. We were both is low hanging fruit positions as it were.

How are you 'low hanging fruit?' Like seriously, you're confusing the fuck out of me.

I don't answer these type of things because I try not to call people poor etc so I won't be here.

This pretty much speaks for itself.

[The Fonz]

Then I'm really confused by what you mean by low hanging fruit. If it's not inexperienced or poor (or both) players, what is it? Because that's what 'low hanging fruit' has meant every time I've seen anyone use the term on site.

Poor but really its lynchability which are similar but different.

Right, thank you. You don't fall into that category, so stop trying to muddy the waters. I know you're more than competent.

[The Fonz]

How is Fonz a weak or lynchable player? This doesn't add up.

He's not saying that. He's saying him and Chevre are easy lynches.

(And presumably Bulbazak, who was active and more than prepared to defend himself, but y'know, whatevs).

[The Fonz]

Fonz, why is your vote not on emerald?

He's not the best lynch.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, why is your vote not on emerald?

He's not the best lynch.

Why not? define: best lynch

Person most likely in my mind to be scum. This really is an infuriating line of questioning.

[The Fonz]

Why not? define: best lynch

Person most likely in my mind to be scum. This really is an infuriating line of questioning.

well, sorry for trying to figure out why

I'm sorry, but I've already told you I'm finding him hard to read. This necessarily means he appears less scummy to me than people I am managing to get a read on, for whom that read is 'scum.' Badgering me on this point is hugely unproductive and annoying.

I don't think choosing between the leading wagons is scummy, though.

[The Fonz]

NS, read fast, because I have every intention to hammer.

[The Fonz]

Actually, I make it L-2. Still.

[The Fonz]

A few pages ago, both Slandaar and ABR were wall dueling with each other. Then both of them just stopped voting each other and started voting for the growing wagon, emeraldemon. It reeked of scum on both sides, so when Slandaar turned up town, I figured there's no way in hell both are town from that.

The problem with this is that that looks like a relational tell - they were faking the argument. Now we know they weren't, it loses power. Given that Slandaar flipped town, we know it's at least possible a town player would move to vote a new wagon with the person they were attacking. Also, note that ABR moved first: I don't see how a town player changing their vote subsequently to you doing it makes you scum. You need much more analysis before I even begin to think about buying 'Slandaar, who Albert was arguing with, moving onto the same wagon as Albert makes ABR scum.'

Chevre becomes moderately more town simply because I'm still alive.

[The Fonz]

@The Fonz - yours is the first post that feels clearly townish. Talk to me here, what are your thoughts on the gamestate now and/or yesterday. I'd like some context but will admit I'm far too lazy to actually read the whole game to get it.

My view on the gamestate, and bear in mind that at various points I was one of the stronger partisans so a large pinch of salt will be needed for this:

Pre-game is full of derping around, 'Lol I know ur scum because u said so in our quicktopic' type stuff. Imho, this disposed people badly towards emogirl, who was the main culprit. Game starts and Slandaar does a lot of unhelpful setup spec. This will be important later.

A wagon builds on the annoying emogirl. Bulbazak claims that emogirl saying 'I was going to vote the first person to make a case on garmr' is the same thing as saying 'I want to vote town.' I call this a deliberate distortion and vote Bulbazak. We wall back and forth for a few pages before I decide that further argument is futile. Meanwhile, lots of people jump on the emogirl wagon with either even worse reasoning than Bulba, or none at all. Lots of people express discomfort with the wagon, but their votes are scattered.

Chevre then puts the wagon at something like L-2 with 'lynch for information' reasoning. Lots of people find this super scummy, big Chevre wagon builds and emogirl wagon dies quickly. Chevre gets close to lynch, I am uncomfortable with Albert and Nobody Special jumping the Chevre wagon having also supported the (imho diametrically opposed in terms of worldview) emogirl wagon. I unvote to question Albert, then go V/LA over the weekend.

Albert unvotes Chevre, and goes to Slandaar. Several others follow. Slandaar wagon gets big. Albert unvotes to vote emeraldemon, several follow. slandaar wagon is still building. Slandaar attacks brian skies, imho unfairly, deadline pressure shows up, most people conclude Slandaar is the best lynch of the viable wagons, which are Slan, Brian Skies, and emeraldemon.

Things to note:

Albert was on every major wagon except Brian's. He jumped the first two, but started the Slandaar and Emerald wagons and is now imho being scapegoated for them.

The emogirl wagon got to l-2, and nearly everyone who was on it seems to have forgotten she even exists now.

Similarly, and much to my chagrin, the Chevre wagon also seems soft - no-one except me was willing to fight for it.

Basically, we have a game where as soon as the momentum started shifting at all, several people switch their votes to the new flavor of the week wagon at the drop of a hat.

Also,

Vote: Nobody special

Reasons:

A) Being on both emo and chevre
B) Self-admitted coasting
C) Emerging from a lurk to place a useless vote
D) Showing up at the deadline and not providing an opinion
E) Votes the flavor of the week wagon this morning with no reasoning.

[The Fonz]

Also, Fonz's wall against ABR is compelling.
...why wouldn't you vote ABR right now? Why are you voting Zekrom first?

Wait, when did I write a 'Wall against ABR?'

Bulbazak tends to read Emo's wagon falling apart as indicating scum on her part. I read it the other way: it fell apart because it was scummy and indefensible, so people ran from it as soon as it was attacked.

[The Fonz]

@Nobody Special: Early on day one, you called setup speculation 'useless.' Why didn't you call it scummy?

[The Fonz]

So just to be clear, you do not believe that scum has more motive to do it than town?

[The Fonz]

Okay, I feel like you are trying to paint me into a corner here, which bothers me. Scum does,

in certain circumstances,

have more motive for setup spec than town. I don't know how much clearer I can make it.

If by 'painting you into a corner' you mean 'I might have reasons to suspect you're diverging from your usual playstyle' then yes. I need to do more meta-ing to prove or disprove it, though, and I don't have time until the weekend.

[The Fonz]

OK, some thoughts.

Uncomfortable with the Tony PF wagon. Feels like it's a case of 'Really raw newbie replaces shit player' and I'm not seeing anything scummy here. Like ABR to explain why he gets suspicious when a player has similar reads to predecessor.

I still have no clue what the case on Albert actually

is

, beyond 'he pressed hard for the lynch of a player who turned out to be town.'

Bulba makes bad cases, but he seems to put a lot of emotional investment in them. Cautiously reading town now.

Zdenek's interesting. He's asking a lot of questions, and not necessarily following through on most of them, which is generally unsettling (it always feels like a way for scum to look like they're scumhunting) and off from the town game of his I just read. The 'Me vs ABR, now' post reads town, though. I'd like to know why Emerald is in his null pile rather than the scummy one, since the reason he gave for unvoting emerald yesterday has been proven untrue.

Like, does anyone have any reason whatsoever for not reading Nobody Special as scum? Is it not considered scummy any more to emerge from a lurk to put a vote on a non-contributor, and in other sundry ways just say nothing of value on day one? Today, he's parked his vote on the biggest wagon with no reason. Also his point about why Tony chose to read ABR in ISO had already been answered in thread when he said it - Tony ISO'd Albert because he was the player that was 'flavor of the week' ie the one everyone was talking about.

[The Fonz]

Hey Fonz, which questions didn't I follow up on? Because it looks like you're just copying something Sotty said here? But upping the ante.

TBH, I haven't been paying a lot of attention to Sotty. I can't remember any of her case on you. But sure, it's easy enough to find in your ISO. Just a stream of questions which seem to exist for their own sake. Let me go find.

[The Fonz]

Bulbazak, doesn't it surprise you that I'm town reading you?

Bulbazak answers the question. Zdenek's next post does not acknowledge or follow up on this. I mean, it was kind of a pointless question to begin with.

Aegor

, what did you think were Garmr's motivations behind attacking you without having voted you?

Sotty, why are you town reading ABR?

Aegor

, what did you think were Garmr's motivations behind attacking you without having voted you?

Aegor posts after this to say he's 'Fine with' his Garmr vote, but doesn't answer the question. Zdenek seems to not deem this worthy of comment.

Asks me for why I think 504 is a town post. In fairness responds to my answer, but his response is basically 'I disagree but whatevs.'

Asks Sotty why she's townreading ABR. She replies. He ignores it.

#611 asks NS if his view on Chevre has changed. No reply. Zdenek lets it drop.

#617 questions Bulbazak. Noting this because here, he does follow up with Bulba, and replies to the reply, saying that because of meta he thinks Bulba's town read on Ed is unfounded. If all the questions were like this, I wouldn't be worried.

#659 "Why did you cut the list off at ABR?"

I could go on, but I think the point here is clear. Zdenek asks a hell of a lot of questions. I don't get the idea that he's using them to learn very much, though, hence the gut read of 'trying to look like scumhunting' rather than 'scumhunting.'

[The Fonz]

If you think that I've been asking questions in lieu of taking stances I don't think that you've been reading the thread.

I didn't say you never took a position. I said your questioning felt weird and a little directionless. It feels like you're asking a lot of these questions for the sake of it, rather than to drive your analysis - the two things often seem disconnected. And you notably didn't do this in the last large normal you played. These things are enough to create a feeling of unease about you.

Asks me for why I think 504 is a town post. In fairness
Well NS only posted prod-dodges for 13 pages and 5 days and when he came back we were a day from the deadline so you are ridiculous if you want to paint this as scummy.

When I've asked a question of a player, it's because I really want to know something. If they then prod-dodged for thirteen pages and five days, I sure as shit wouldn't just let that go. And I love how quickly you allege 'trying to paint you as scummy' when all I've said is there's things about you that make me uncomfortable. I only posted those questions, after all, because you asked. Seriously, go through your own ISO and tell me your reaction wouldn't be 'Man, this guy is asking a lot of questions, and it's not clear how they're feeding into his reads.' It seems to me like your reads (or 'reads') probably wouldn't be any different if you'd only asked one or two questions.

[The Fonz]

Hmm...
New top 3 scum list:
Zdenek
NS
ABR

For reasons provided earlier in the thread, special thanks to The Fonz.

Specifically which reasons are you on-board with? Why are you crediting my thoughts on Zdenek, but not on ABR?

[The Fonz]

Also, why on the basis of me having NS as super scummy and Zdenek somewhat concerning do you have the latter above the former?

[The Fonz]

Which are the reasons Chevre said, are they not?

[The Fonz]

I didn't say you never took a position. I said your questioning felt weird and a little directionless. It feels like you're asking a lot of these questions for the sake of it, rather than to drive your analysis - the two things often seem disconnected. And you notably didn't do this in the last large normal you played. These things are enough to create a feeling of unease about you.

I ask questions to try to figure out where people are coming from and to interact with them, and I'm pretty sure that you're wrong about me doing it the last large normal I was in. I just ISO'd myself in the last large normal I was in, searched for "?" and it's pretty clear to me that I did do it.

I noted the huge number of questions in this ISO, and compared them to your last town large normal ISO. There is SUBSTANTIALLY more direction to your questioning in that one.

When I've asked a question of a player, it's because I really want to know something. If they then prod-dodged for thirteen pages and five days, I sure as shit wouldn't just let that go.

Well, laa dee daa, you are so self-righteous.[/quote]

I'm trying to help town. If you're not, fuck you.

And I love how quickly you allege 'trying to paint you as scummy' when all I've said is there's things about you that make me uncomfortable.

If you don't think that it's scummy why are you so focussed on it? If you actually don't think that it's scummy, then it's hilarious that you're "uncomfortable" about me for asking questions because you think that they aren't informing my reads. The way I see it, is that you are making a soft-attack on me in such a way that you can back down from it.

Fucking seriously? I notice some potentially scummy things about you. I also point out an aspect of your play I have a hard time seeing coming from scum. I'm talking about it a lot, because you made such a big deal about it so of course I have to respond to you asking for my justifications. You jump immediately to the idea that I'm trying to fabricate a case on you because I happen to think some of your play is questionable. If I were trying to push a case on you, I'd be, y'know, voting you. Don't make the mistake of thinking that because I defend my reasoning at length when it's attacked, it's the thing I'd be talking most about had you not responded in the accusatory way you did.

Before I ask a question, I don't know how the person is going to respond. The answers certainly could inform my reads, and asking people to take stances is usually worthwhile.

If you don't have some idea of what a townish response is, and what a scummy response would be, then your questioning looks an awful lot like fake or ineffectual scumhunting to me. I didn't get that feeling, at all, from NY165, even knowing your alignment - it felt a lot more purposeful.

Pre-edit: You know the part about overconfidence is bullshit, right? Also, why does it make ABR scum

with your other two suspects?

I don't think scum often make 'it's me or him' proclamations about their partners.

[The Fonz]

See what you've done Fonz?

I prefer him voting you to voting ABR. I'd rather he vote Nobody Special, but this is at least an improvement.

Hey Tony, who's the scummiest player outside the three everyone's talking about?

[The Fonz]

@Fonz - what's your take on Inhim?

Under my radar. I'll take a look.

[The Fonz]

OK, on inHim, I'm leaning town. Has gut reads and strong town reads, which aren't that common among scum.

[The Fonz]

Also, there's a metric fuckton of lurk in this game, isn't there?

[The Fonz]

OK, on inHim, I'm leaning town. Has gut reads and strong town reads, which aren't that common among scum.

I'm really hoping I'm misunderstanding this. Are you saying having gut reads and strong town reads...makes him town?
Could you at least, if this is what you're saying, back it up with meta specific to him?

Those are towntells in general. I don't have meta on him specifically, I haven't played in quite a while so I don't remember many players' meta, save those like ABR and Yos2 I've played with loads.

[The Fonz]

I'm worried about Fonz and Sotty because they are both capable players who have decided to be rather pathetic in this game.

Erm, screw you. And define pathetic? Disagreeing with you? If you mean undercontributing, I haven't posted for a few days. Thirteen hour shifts combined with spotty net access. It happens. It's not like I'm skimping on giving reads here.

Thor thinks I 'owe' him something on InHim. Since I don't have a ton of time for this post and he's V/LA, I'll go into it tomorrow.

I'll consider it.

Hey Fonz, what's your read on bulb right now?

Once I dropped out of back-and-forthing with him and getting massively frustrated by how utterly terrible his arguments are, I came to the conclusion he was probably sincere and thus town. That town meta quote Zdenek posted of him - where he essentially attacks someone horribly over semantics - makes me think that this is not the scumtell (for him) it struck me as at the time.

Sotty's sorta-defence of Nobody Special is... interesting. I read a load of NS games for meta before voting him (fairly standard with lurkaderp types). The short posts and lurking I can write off as playstyle. But I'm really intrigued to hear that emerging from a lurk to vote a noncontributor is a 'standard NS tactic.' To me, the difference between the easy lynch lurker and the scum lurker is that the town lurker at least makes some effort to impact the game when (s)he shows up. That vote feels like a deliberate attempt to be as ineffectual as possible, which is the opposite of what a townie should be going for. Basically, is there any evidence at all, anywhere, of town motive from him? I'm not seeing it.

Finally, today's events have flipped my view on Zdenek/ABR. I don't actually want to lynch either today, but Zdenek feels more constructive lately (pissed at him, but whatever) whilst attack dog/hardass prosecutor Albert (ironically, kinda the reason why Zdenek suspected ABR to start with) which is what I expect from him as town hasn't shown up.

[The Fonz]

I will just note for the record that I have almost twice the posts of Matias, and he's not getting nearly the heat that I am.

Very much a scum-driven wagon.

He also replaced in two weeks after your first post, so it's not an apples-to-oranges comparison, which tells me at best that you're paying almost no attention to the game. Let me guess, you went to 'activity overview' to see if there was anyone who'd posted less so you could make this argument? Deflect more, scum. And it's not just lurking.


Also note the non-distinct "there's scum on that thar wagon." Who?

[The Fonz]

OK, so quickly:

Huntress, I'm afraid PJ was right about the modkills. When you have two empty slots and can't find a replacement for either, you modkill both or neither. Killing one and not the other just begs for people to suspect partiality, however offended you might be at the thought - because there's no good reason for an impartial mod to do it.

Felt I was strawmanned a bit this game, but meh, who cares, town won!

[The Fonz]

I've got to side with Huntress on the replacement/modkill issue. There are no good answers (especially in a game this insanely long) when you can't get a replacement after two weeks of actively searching, even offering to cross-replace. (The only reason I replaced in was to help the mod in another game I was in, and Huntress replaced into that game.) I'm having a hard time imagining a circumstance where a modkill after a full game day of two weeks of fruitless replacement

isn't

warranted. It's not a perfect solution, but it's the least bad one there. (Notably it shrunk the number of lynches the town would get over the course of the game, so it hurt the town, but we seemed to recover okay.

But PJ's objection, and mine, weren't to the fact there was a modkill. It was the fact that there were two slots that had needed to be replaced for a reasonably long time, and she arbitrarily chose to modkill

only one

of them, in a scenario where the first modkill would cost the town a lynch and the second one (assuming the player was, as in this case, town) would not cost an additional lynch.