Mafia 59: Hell on Earth - Game over!

Skruffs · Post Post #836 (isolation #0) » Mon Apr 30, 2007 3:32 am

NV9, you've claimed alien scum, right?
Theo, Why do you think scum shouldn't be lynched today? If both scum hit other scum tonight, it's still a town loss the final day; no matter who gets lynched, the last scum kills a townie. If one of hte scum hit a townie tonight, the other group will have a majority and wins by default. So yeah, no lynch is a bad idea. We have to lynch scum today.

If the newt can confirm a townie, they should do so; it would confirm all of the other players as scum, and win the game. Scum have to hit each other, if they can, to win, at that point. one lynched, two nightkilled, last one lynched. Booya.

Vote : NV9

Oh, and hi everyone. This is the first game I've replaced into at LYLO. Very diferent, I dont have the suspense built up in me like you do. However, maybe without that stress I can see things clearly?

Skruffs · Post Post #839 (isolation #1) » Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:14 am

Too bad that was a blatant defense of NV9. You didn't offer any other averages, like, what if other people are lynched; NV9's partner (you) for example, borg, townie.
The best possible solution town has, is to lynch a borg, assume the other borg takes out one alien, the aliens hopefully hit the other borg, and the last alien is lynched tommorrow. THat's really our BEST Chance. but it's also one of the most dangerous, because if we lynch a townie, the aliens could hit the last townie instead of borg tonight. tommorrow would be a o townie, 1 borg, 1 alien loss for everyone. I, for one, am willing to risk losing if it means all the mafias lose, too.

Skruffs · Post Post #845 (isolation #2) » Mon Apr 30, 2007 11:07 am

Well, Placing a vote on N9V isn't careless; he claimed scum to help lynch a borg. But now that the sides are euqal (2-2-2) I see us as having three choices; we lynch the confirmed scum(Nv9), we no lynch, or we risk lynching someone else (with 60% likelihood of hitting scum), knowign that we can lynch NV9 tommorrow. I don't personally like screwing around with chances, and I don't trust the mafia to hit only each other when there's still an 'expendable' townie in their eyes.

I don't see how I'm being seen as scum; Jalyn is *obviously* his partner. I caught on, and NV9 immediately turned his vote from a platonic "no lynch" to a vote on me, which Jalyn was all too eager to agree with.

I've skimmed through since Bogre's lynch, and I can't believe Jalyn hasn't been lynched or nightkilled by the borg yet. Scumscumscum.

Skruffs · Post Post #847 (isolation #3) » Mon Apr 30, 2007 4:50 pm

oops, my bad. You voted some random person. I mistook theopor's original post for yours.
You're right, my bad. You're just a down-on-your-luck alien, trying to lynch a borg. (presumably)

Skruffs · Post Post #849 (isolation #4) » Tue May 01, 2007 3:35 am

Um, well, no, actually, if borg and alien crossfire, then it's 2 townies and 1 borg left tommorrow. Lynching scum is always an option.
You people and your selective analysi.

Skruffs · Post Post #852 (isolation #5) » Tue May 01, 2007 6:10 am

SV is smart. Probably town.
Jalyn + NV9, definitely alien.
Theo and Nightfall, be elimination, borg.
That's my position.

Skruffs · Post Post #858 (isolation #6) » Tue May 01, 2007 10:55 am

what would be funny, would be if everyone fell for it.

That would be humorous.

Skruffs · Post Post #861 (isolation #7) » Tue May 01, 2007 1:02 pm

Before you even claimed Alien, you were saying who the aliens were going to kill.
Maybe you outed yourself to get Yos lynched, but you are

still alien

. I can understand your actions yesterday and today; you're trying to keep your team alive, even if it means getting lynched yourself, if that last alien can make it to endgame you still win. Very noble. But you are Definitely scum. You came clean with everything yesterday and you

can't go back, now.

Skruffs · Post Post #863 (isolation #8) » Tue May 01, 2007 1:47 pm

Misleading. You're forgetting the number of times each situation could happen. For example, in lynching a townie situation :

Say we lynch a town today:
(Borg-Town-Alien)
2-1-2
B-org - RS, Town - T, A-lien UV
Then this is what can happen at night:
(Borg-Town-Alien)

S-T-V

(A- targets R, B- targets U)

S-T-U

(A- targets R, B- targets V)

R-T-V

(A- targets S, B- targets U)

R-T-U

(A- targets S, B- targets V)

Town loss without no-lynch and crossfire the next night.

2-0-2

(Both mafia target T)

Game Loss on All Sides

1-0-2

(A- targets R, B- targets T)

1-0-2

(A- targets S, B- targets T)
Alien (~NV9~) must be lynched the next day (impossible) followed by crossfire for town to win. Assumes that borg wouldn't want to kill alien threat.

2-0-1

(A- targets T, B- targets U)

2-0-1

(A- targets T, B- targets V)
Borg lynch necessary the next day (impossible) followed by successful cross kill.

Assuming that each option is completely random (it's not) town has 4 chances of being forced into a necessary nolynch + successful crossfire situation, 1 shot of being a game loss on all sides, and 4 potential mafia wins.

This is going to be done to your other scenarios, AND I'll do one for a no-lynch situation, too, but it will have to wait.

Skruffs · Post Post #865 (isolation #9) » Tue May 01, 2007 6:57 pm

exactly.
SV is smart, and two votes should be enough for the borgs to hop on and lynch the alien. Seriously, if the two of you vote NV9 right now, you will know who the last alien is, and you can knock one of the townies out tonight and STILL get the alien lynched tommorrow for the win.

Skruffs · Post Post #868 (isolation #10) » Wed May 02, 2007 5:38 am

You can't risk lynching me, right now. IF your scum group miskills tonight, you lose the game. If someone is going to eb lynched, it has to bne NV9, regardless of if you think me and him are scum together.

Skruffs · Post Post #871 (isolation #11) » Wed May 02, 2007 4:47 pm

Jalyn: Wants to No Lynch
Alien: N9V, Skruffs
Borg: SV, Nightfall/theoper_COD
Town: Jalyn, theoper_COD/Nightfall

Theopor(yesterday) - Wants to no lynch
Alien: N9V, Skruffs
Borg: SV, Nightfall
Town: Theo, Jalyn

NV9 - wants to vote nightfall/Skruffs
Alien : ???, ???
Borg : Skruffs / Nightfall
Town : NV9, ???

Skruffs: Wants to vote claiemd scum
Alien : Jalyn , NV9
Borg : Theo , Nightfall
Town : SV , Skruffs

Nightfall :
Alien - N9V, Theoper
Borg - SV , Skruffs
Town - Nightfall, Jalyn

Spectrumvoid: Wants to vote claimed scum
Town : ??? ???
Alien : ??? ???
Borg : ??? ???

More stats, SV, gotta love it right?
Town's public opinions on:
Jalyn - Town-3 Alien-1 ???-2
Nightfall - Borg-4 Town-1 ???-1
NV9 - Alien-4, TOwn-1 ???-1
Skruffs - Alien-2, Borg-2, Town-1, ???-1
Spectrumvoid - Borg -3 Town-1 ???-2
Theodor - Town-2 Borg -1 Alien-1 ???-2

Theopor, Jalyn, you want to lynch scum or not? Because in my eyes, scum probably want to avoid being lynched, townies want to lynch. If you were town, then pushing for a no-lynch means you are hoping for two successful nights of crosskilling with no lynches from here out. As compared to going for a successful lynch, one night of crosskilling, and another successful lynch. Of course, since neither of you are town, it makes sense that you would 'hope for the best' with a no-lynch.

SV, sorry. If it matters, I honestly think you are town and are playing it safe. I'm hoping you are, anyways, if you are always scum I will get depressed.

Skruffs · Post Post #879 (isolation #12) » Fri May 04, 2007 6:53 am

YaY! I got to endgame spectrumvoid!

Skruffs · Post Post #882 (isolation #13) » Fri May 04, 2007 8:14 am

We figured aliens wouldn't kill BM, either because he was town or because he was alien.
Same with Jalyn. >.>

Skruffs · Post Post #892 (isolation #14) » Sat May 05, 2007 4:29 am

Deh-fin-hit-lee

Skruffs · Post Post #896 (isolation #15) » Sat May 05, 2007 7:26 pm

Jalyn, did you ever risk hiding with another player?