Townstumps Mafia (Endgame)

[Titus]

Vote Count 1.05

jjh927 (4):

Mia and Maya Fey, Not_Mafia, Titus, cyrus62,

Not Known 15 (3):

mastina, jjh927, Moongrass,

Free Money Free Tea (2):

House, DrippingGoofball,

Moongrass (2):

nomnomnom, Not Known 15,

cyrus62 (1):

Gamma Emerald,

mastina (1):

Free Money Free Tea,

Mia and Maya Fey (0):

nomnomnom (0):

House (0):

Not_Mafia (0):

Gamma Emerald (0):

Titus (0):

DrippingGoofball (0):

No Euphemization (0):

Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive, it takes

7

to euphemize and

7

to have no euphemization.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2021-06-17 17:00:00). At Deadline, currently No Euphemization will occur.

Vote Count 1.06

Not Known 15 (5):

mastina, jjh927, Moongrass, nomnomnom, DrippingGoofball,

jjh927 (4):

Mia and Maya Fey, Not_Mafia, Titus, cyrus62,

Free Money Free Tea (1):

House,

Moongrass (1):

Not Known 15,

cyrus62 (1):

Gamma Emerald,

mastina (1):

Free Money Free Tea,

Mia and Maya Fey (0):

nomnomnom (0):

House (0):

Not_Mafia (0):

Gamma Emerald (0):

Titus (0):

DrippingGoofball (0):

No Euphemization (0):

Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive, it takes

7

to euphemize and

7

to have no euphemization.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2021-06-17 17:00:00). At Deadline, currently No Euphemization will occur.

Looking at these wagons, I initially want to say Mia and Moongrass scum but it's more complicated than that.

I know one of Mia/Moongrass must be scum.

I know that if Moongrass is town, then an all town counterwagon sprung up to a scum lead JJH.
If Mia is town, then Moongrass is bussing.

The leaders of large wagons tend not to be scum but no scum jumped on jjh.

If we suppose the theory scum bussed NK early, then Moongrass is the only real possible choice. The onslaught of town made his wagon inevitable.

[Titus]

I'm seeing that theory less and less though.

[Titus]

Vote Count 3.03

Titus (4):

jjh927, Moongrass, mastina, cyrus62,

Moongrass (3):

House, Titus, Gamma Emerald,

jjh927 (0):

cyrus62 (0):

House (0):

Mia and Maya Fey (0):

mastina (0):

Not_Mafia (0):

Gamma Emerald (0):

DrippingGoofball (0):

No Euphemization (0):

Not Voting (3):

DrippingGoofball, Not_Mafia, Mia and Maya Fey,

With 10 alive, it takes

6

to euphemize and

5

to have no euphemization.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2021-06-27 16:00:00). At Deadline, currently No Euphemization will occur.

If moongrass is town, scum refused to hammer me by doubling up on the back end. House couldn't though. He was pretty trapped in the Titus town narrative.

Both scum going after moongrass would make no sense with me on the table (supposing house and mia both scum).

I'm highly inclined to think Moongrass is scum here.

[Titus]

@Moongrass, From both our perspectives, at least one scum is defending me. Which do you think it is and why? I know you don't think it's both because you want to vote me here, but I want to see your thought process here. Even if I haven't sorted you, your answer will help me determine who scum is.

@House, For both of us to be town, like your position is, the hydra and moongrass must be scum. Nancy's defense of me looks quite similar to the large theme we just finished. So where are the differences? Why does Nancy pocket me here?

@Nancy, From my perspective either you're scum or house is at a minimum. If you think I am town, where did House's pocket of me start?

[Titus]

By the votes, I want to say Moongrass and Maya.

By the play, I want Moongrass and House.

[Titus]

I'm still very open to Moongrass town though.

[Titus]

Right now, I think the goal for Moongrass scum is to push me, get mastina and gamma on board and then have the other scum defending me hammer. This would suggest but not prove a Mia/Moon team due to Mia not voting Moon yesterday and softening (partially) her stance here.

The problem with that scenario is that House's play looks more like agency capture (just barely) and that I don't think mastina votes outside of me/House.

[Titus]

It makes sense for scum!Feys to now townread her as well

I can 100% prove this to be false. The implication here is that I didn’t start tr her until now when I was hard defending her on D2.

Arguing about who defended me first when I had the shittiest reads in the game is arguably not a point in favor as I had use to scum. We need to look at genuiness.

[Titus]

@Koba, if you view me as town, it has to be moon/house.

[Titus]

Considering noone who is confirmed town except Gamma has a townread on Titus, it's surprising that two slots have been defending her the whole game.

DGB died townreading me.

[Titus]

Titus showing no paranoia of house here is more reliable to consider her stances than her pretending she is open to changing her read on hydra/me as scum.

That's objectively not true.

[Titus]

Scum probably thought today would be an easy win with my Miselim.

If that was the case, why kill DGB over mastina?

[Titus]

Titus is actually pushing us as the team - which I’m still not clear on

My reads are mush atm.

[Titus]

Considering noone who is confirmed town except Gamma has a townread on Titus, it's surprising that two slots have been defending her the whole game.

DGB died townreading me.

DGB didn't seem very interested in this game.

Yet she still died over mastina.

[Titus]

Please discuss your progression on house through the game.

Basically, I have felt he's been largely town with a possibility of pocketing me and I have waivered throughout the game.

I'm actually inclined to liminate House at the moment though.

[Titus]

Like why you think hydra/me is more likely than house/me and why you townread House after his opening wolfing EOD3.

Why are you putting reads in my mouth?

[Titus]

Like why you think hydra/me is more likely than house/me and why you townread House after his opening wolfing EOD3.

Why are you putting reads in my mouth?

So you don't think me/hydra is the most likely team? You don't townread house implicitly by that PoE?

I literally have been vaccilating all day between the three of you. That's pretty blatant from my posts, so I really don't get where you think I am hard defending or pushing anyone.

[Titus]

I literally just said I wasn't hard pushing or defending anyone and highlighting why I am struggling with things making sense all the way around. So I'm not even going to look as I don't consider myself as pushing today.

[Titus]

I'm tempted to think Moongrass and House, but that doesn't explain yesterday.

[Titus]

Hydra, say I'm scum here, I've already won because my buddy and I have mastina's vote on Titus who I'm clearly not buddies with. I could also make an appeal to Gamma if I had you in my PoE - which House has already done so please see that I'm practically confirmed town here.

That's new.

I'm town because mastina wants to vote Titus.

mastina's vote has zilch to do with your alignment. It just means town has an uphill battle. If we hit scum today, then maybe mastina comes around.

Second, this implies mastina never dies. Creepy.

[Titus]

If house is my buddy it would be pretty easy to lim Hydra, if hydra is my buddy it would be pretty easy to lim Titus, if Titus is my buddy we've done an awesome job setting you all up and I'm an amazing scum player with my acting.

Hydra is not easy to eliminate at all.

[Titus]

Second, if it's you/House, you attack me and House hammers.

[Titus]

@Mia, when I get clarity, you will. I'm favoring you as the town right now.

Moongrass's play makes sense here as scum. If he postulates me/House as the team and is believed, then he gets his game winning miselimination [moon, mastina, you or Gamma, scum hammer] or he gets credit from a House flip, which he banks on with a mastina misvote tomorrow.

I would be confident that was the team but for House picking on Moongrass the entire time unless House thought he was dying.

[Titus]

The fact moon says House is 100% scum but still favors pushing me reeks of scum to me.

[Titus]

If you tr us and sr Titus, that obviously means you think House is her buddy, so why not push him and Titus? Why only Titus?

House I'm 100% sure on, I'm still pushing Titus to make dead sure she's scum too. You also already can see house is scum but you're townreading Titus so that's where I need to change your read, that's pretty self-explanatory.

[Titus]

I think the play here is voting House, Maya. mastina has made it clear she likely won't vote for anyone other than me or House. Since we need all four town to agree, that's the likely play. It's still unsettling because you and Moongrass both seem to think he's scum but Moongrass trying to get me roped first calms my nerves a bit.

[Titus]

I think the play here is voting House, Maya. mastina has made it clear she likely won't vote for anyone other than me or House. Since we need all four town to agree, that's the likely play. It's still unsettling because you and Moongrass both seem to think he's scum but Moongrass trying to get me roped first calms my nerves a bit.

It’s extremely frustrating to me because I can’t help feel I’m some how being set up. If both House and Moon vote us, I won’t be shocked.

I would be. Scum need two town to mess up. mastina wants me or House. You're not voting yourself. That leaves both me and gamma to misvote you. I don't see that happening. If they go for you as the miselimination, they would have to wait until after a scum flip and or a no elimination just due to the numbers. That's why I think scum moon opens TRing you.

[Titus]

(I'm sorry that I'm not analyzing things right now, it's literally 7 am, I need sleep. I wish I could say that I was doing prep work for the big Coming Out Day, but no, I was wasting it. Sorry. I will try to do better tomorrow, but I can't guarantee it.)

Take care mastina.

[Titus]

It’s just wild to me that his argument is that I should locktown him and I’m scum if I don’t.

Moongrass is in a problem that he needs one of us to SR the other. I think he's realizing that I'm more likely to SR you than you are me. That's if they go for the win today.

If they play for a no elimination, Gamma dies and then they could rely on mastina to misvote me.

He's stuck in a position where he can't decide to win today or tomorrow.

[Titus]

I think the way this goes is as follows...

We eliminate House.
Scum kill Gamma.

This leaves me, hydra, mastina and moon alive. Scum still need two townies to misvote. We vote moon. mastina either hammers for a win or we force a no elimination.

Scum are then forced to kill the hydra to keep mastina's misvote in play.

Then, I just obvtown more than moongrass at a disadvantage.

It's a longshot but it's the plan I see here if the hydra's town and I think they are.

[Titus]

By the way, i lied. I'm really mad.

You're mad? I'm hardly sympathetic. I have reached out to you numerous times asking you to work with your townreads to discuss your read on me to settle this to either accelerate the loss of this game or to actually see me as town. Instead, you and mastina both keep me in your collective PoE for not solving the setup with one hand behind my back.

If you had told me, when I asked, I would have been much further along in my solving and maybe we don't eliminate cyrus. The problem is that you wouldn't compromise on the scum we could get yesterday (moon) because you had to lord over me how superior you were.

Frankly, it's bullshit.

[Titus]

Scum asked nsg to bow out probably because like DGB for Titus it clears all obstacles.

Where did this happen?

Second, the first I heard about the stumps bowing out mechanic was when EE mentioned giving not mafia a doctor if he bowed out.

[Titus]

Vla today and tomorrow

I can't deal with anyone else asking me to fix their shit and being ungrateful for it.

I'm not in the mental health to play mafia.

X post all games.

[Titus]

Well you said scum wouldn't bring up the possibility the clears are false themselves, Titus hasn't mentioned any possibility of the clears being false, so that combined with Titus being a strong enough mech player to guess NM was a weak Hider D3 should mean you scumread her.

This is an absolute fucking lie that I'm not going to let go though.

I was the only one who speculated the clears could be false and I got told I was scummy for that. Only when I solved a hider was at play did I buy the clears as likely true and they likely are.

[Titus]

Damn technology. Moon said that not you.

[Titus]

I am still backseating today for mental health, but hammer sitting is a meaningless argument as votes here are not locked, like on other sites.

[Titus]

Anyway, I still think it's House plus Moongrass with a VERY UNLIKELY chance of mastina/moongrass. The only reasons I consider mastina are

1) scum had a role to stop the commuter, we don't see one for the hider.
2) mastina has terrible reads that would be perfect for a moongrass/mastina team.

I don't really like it, unless scum figured out not mafia was a hider before I did. A lot of the crumbs I got came after mastina was cleared. They may not have needed to know not mafia was a hider specifically but an investigative role of somesort. I think it's possible but unlikely. Plus my early reads were terrible and mastina has been an early read.

Given I feel Maya and Gamma are town, my preferred elimination now is moongrass given my moonlogic scenario.

I'd like someone to tell me my mental health makes me crazy on mastina with reasons why.

[Titus]

If mastina is town, it's PoE. I feel you're town. Gamma's town. That leaves House and Moongrass.

If mastina's scum, it's not with House given her posting. You're town. Gamma's town. That leaves Moongrass.

Moongrass's opening on me was pretty scummy too.

[Titus]

Given I feel Maya and Gamma are town, my preferred elimination now is moongrass given my moonlogic scenario.

Why vote Moon instead of House today if you claim to scumread both?

In the two scenarios I have, Moon is scum in both. House would be a compromise I wouldn't mind. Mastina would be an unlikely compromise and something that needs to be vetted thoroughly.

[Titus]

Wow. That's a fast 180 full of lies.

[Titus]

Also, Nancy saying that DGB kill could still implicate scum Titus is a really weird thing for a town player to do. The usual approach to someone you're townreading in Lylo as town is to observe or defend them from the obvious scum pushes, not shut down reasons your strong townread could be town.

Say hydra thinks I'm scum, they're town, why are they going out of their way to keep me scumreading Titus? That tells me the hydra knows I'm town and can't afford Titus/me to townread each other.

Whatever Titus, your whole approach to me today is scummy. You don't question the town reads on you and keep tunneling me when I've been objectively trying to assess you as town. Town are paranoid enough that they might be wrong, but you just keep paying lip service to paranoia, it's not real because you're scum.

[Titus]

That all you got? "Wow" "full of lies"
*eye roll*

Yes. It is full of lies. I went through the analysis of people townreading me and came to the conclusion that if either is fake, it is House. You completely act as if that analysis never happened and handwaive it. So full of lies is accurate

[Titus]

Guess what Titus, that's what town do in lylo, they evaluate every angle so they don't throw the game.

They're not all blah blah reads don't change, push same agenda.

Right. Yours are too fast to be organic. Mia pushes against you, she's scum. I push against you, then I am scum. House you have as scum. He's been pushing on you for days.

Meanwhile, you ignore my analysis and changing reads.

[Titus]

Do you think there's a chance mastina is scum Moon?

[Titus]

I forgot about the no kill the night mastina was checked. That makes it much less likely to be mastina. I knew I was forgetting something, which is why I asked for my work to be checked.

[Titus]

Where has your read changed on me Titus? I've been at the bottom of your poe all day so I don't see it. Being open to seeing me as town but continuing to say I'm the most scummy is just rubbish posting to appear town.

This again is townread me or you're scum, which is the whole of your posting today.

I went through the VCA analysis and play analysis and came to a conclusion. I need new evidence to change it, and I don't see it.

[Titus]

I think mastina is town. I think Gamma is town. Because as I said the NKA shows that scum only tried to kill NM after he cleared Gamma, when they shot him directly he cleared mastina. If they were JKing NM they wouldn't have tried to shoot him, unless they no killed but that's beyond moonlogic.

Why is that beyond moonlogic when it's the very angle you pushed d3?

[Titus]

Yeah sorry NM I'm not just going to take your word for it, especially since you targeted mastina instead of titus.

NM assumes a no kill and titus assumes a blocked kill. Hmm

Look at the scum scrambling lmao. It's probably just the hydra and house. Especially if titus flips town.

House tries to get some momentum on cyrus, no luck so he redirects back to old suspects. Hydra instavotes me for having them in my poe, but doesn't blink at House's shade...and now the nom kill makes sense. The no kill probably because both forgot to put a kill through.

Jjh this is the best reason yet to townread cyrus. We get Titus limmed and it really is auto win after that regardless of alignment.

Or no kill because the pool of suspects was shrinking especially if NM claimed today.

How did this go from your theory to moonlogic?

[Titus]

Flips happened, I understand more about the mechanics. Obv.

What flip would have ever made you not abandon this no kill position? It felt far fetched from the get go.

You hold me to a standard of solving NM was a hider faster than I did, but have no interest in holding mastina to that.

While it's likely that scum tried to kill not mafia, it's not impossible. Posts like your outlandish no kill theory make it possible.

Also of note, apparently nm speculated a no kill theory as well.

[Titus]

It's a theory I find unlikely, but this is mylo, so I go through all the possibilities, even the unlikely ones.

[Titus]

Guess what Titus, that's what town do in lylo, they evaluate every angle so they don't throw the game.

They're not all blah blah reads don't change, push same agenda.

Right. Yours are too fast to be organic. Mia pushes against you, she's scum. I push against you, then I am scum. House you have as scum. He's been pushing on you for days.

Meanwhile, you ignore my analysis and changing reads.

House has been insisting that Moon and us are the team which I have real trouble seeing that anyone actually reading the game could actually believe. I tried to give him a chance to re-evaluate but he refuses to even reconsider.

Here's the problem with that, and why I have an inkling he's town (mastina scum world). He starts from the supposition that both Gamma and mastina are town. He knows I am correctly town. Therefore, there's no other room for scum. Because he could be confbiased on the clears being true, he could be confbiased and not scum.

It's not my favorite theory, but it is viable.

[Titus]

From House's PoV it should be you or mastina as scum, and he should consider mastina more.

[Titus]

That's what you're saying anyway.

[Titus]

From House's PoV it should be you or mastina as scum, and he should consider mastina more.

That's what you're saying anyway.

It’s so beyond ridiculous that anyone could think Moon and us are ever aligned and he’s not even questioning that and he and Moon have been sr each other the entire game and he’s claimed to be tr us, so why is he voting us?

Again, I'm supposing House is town here, you and Moon have fought a lot. Yesterday when the wagons were me and Moon, where was your vote? Not voting.

I don't feel your scum but from a house town pov, he has to go for the unlikely scenario if he maintains his TR on me. He has to go for you/moon, you/mastina or moon/mastina.

[Titus]

@Maya, My guess is that he tried yesterday and failed. Maybe he feels that if he can't convince people you're scum, why prolong the game? I'm supposing a town house when answering but I really don't know.

[Titus]

@Titus, are you seriously asking why we’re not voting yet - when the stumps haven’t conclusively weighed in - when the game could lost if we’re wrong?

No. I'm not voting either and I have my preferred course of action and my compromise laid out.

I don't care much for EE's opinion but they are conftown and should be heard. NSG should be prodded.

[Titus]

@Maya, I'm not rereading the game if you, EE, or Gamma asked. I frankly don't have the time. I can't hold House to a standard that I wouldn't do myself. Asking him to reset is fair.

Second, there's no such thing as an easy vote. A vote that's not going anywhere might as well be not voting. It's not an easy or a safe vote. It's just a wasted vote.

I am not sure if I like the demotivated House theory but it's the only one that works if he's town.

[Titus]

Just ftr, I’m not saying that’s the case but to be 100% locked into to the actual team is bad. And he’s insisting that Moon and us are 100% the team.

I feel being locked onto the team is bad too. That doesn't mean I can't see bad play happening.

Arguably there's enough bad play to go around here (except for you/Gamma) if town.

If I was in house's place, I would seriously consider a moon/mastina team if he resets his read on you.

[Titus]

Here let's resolve this.

Mod: Can a hider be jailkept or roleblocked if such roles exist?

[Titus]

There is a slight non-zero possibility that the clears could potentially have been messed with

Wrong.

Hider procs before JK/roleblocker type roles.

As scum, it serves your win con to undermine town clears.

I disagree with this analysis but the wiki is unclear.

[Titus]

If either Mia and Maya Fey or Moongrass were scum, all they would need to do to win the game is to sheep me.

This is incorrect. Scum need two townies to misvote. Moongrass sheeping you would not result in a scum win.

You would get moongrass (scum) house (scum) and you (town) in that scenario.

[Titus]

The odds of Gamma being a fake clear are much slimmer than mastina. NM is a known troll. I don't see scum deducing he actually was a PR.

[Titus]

House, aside from Gamma scum, do you see a scenario where Moongrass is town?

[Titus]

lmao fuck it
VOTE: gamma

I'm townreading the rest and want to get the hard lim over with

Really?

This is going to need some explanation.

[Titus]

lmao fuck it
VOTE: gamma

I'm townreading the rest and want to get the hard lim over with

Really?

This is going to need some explanation.

From our PoV we have found town in everyone but those 2 slots.
Gamma has admittedly played a good game if scum but theres no other explaination

From my PoV, there's no way that Moongrass is town here. I can't see Gamma as scum.

I think you're mistaken on one of House or Mastina.

[Titus]

We're going to hit a problem here Mia. I might compromise on House but I'm never voting Gamma. The more I talk about this, the firmer I become in Moongrass scum.

[Titus]

VOTE: Moongrass

[Titus]

Now we just need Maya and Gamma...

Which presents a problem because Maya townreads Moongrass now

[Titus]

I don't know if House or mastina is your buddy but I'm leaning mastina at the moment.

[Titus]

I've read. I've stated I believe both Gamma and mastina are confirmed town. Maybe you should get some glasses.

We literally just walked through that they aren't.

This is a convenient way to avoid sorting mastina.

[Titus]

I townread mastina independently of the clear so I still believe she is town, and more than likely not, confirmed town.

Confirmed town is a mech clear. She's not.

Why do you townread mastina independently of the "clear"?

[Titus]

I townread mastina independently of the clear so I still believe she is town, and more than likely not, confirmed town.

Confirmed town is a mech clear. She's not.

I literally am mechanically cleared.

Not_Mafia investigated me with a Weak Hider N2.

People have pointed out that there are scum roles that could block a hider hiding behind scum saving them, but literally every single role that could block a weak hider hiding behind scum from death runs into the same problem. And that problem is why I am conftown, because there is no way to explain the problem AND me not being conftown. You can only explain one, or the other, and if you explain me as being not-conftown you're left with the glaring problem.

I don't see that at at all.

Not_Mafia crumbs visiting you.
Scum partner jailkeeps you.
Scum no kill.
Result: Fake clear on mastina.

[Titus]

Not_Mafia crumbs visiting you.
Scum partner jailkeeps you.
Scum no kill.
Result: Fake clear on mastina.

Doesn't work that way. Weak Hider dies if they hide behind scum; jailkeeper doesn't stop the hider visit.

If Not_Mafia hid behind scum and scum targeted that scum with a jailkeeper, Not_Mafia still dies.

Jailkeeper does stop the hider visit. The mod literally confirmed this.

[Titus]

Mod: Can a hider be jailkept or roleblocked if such roles exist?

Explicitly the normal version of the role hider can be both Jailkept and roleblocked, and this is the version of the role used for Not_Mafia.

I cannot confirm nor deny whether any variant hiders were used in the creation of the scumteam.

"The Normal version of the Hider is one of the simplest: the Hider, when they use their ability, cannot be killed by actions targeted at them; however, if their target dies as a result of an active killing action (e.g. a factional kill or Vigilante shot), the Hider will also die."

No actions other than killing actions fail against the normal version of hider.

Bold added.

[Titus]

I townread mastina independently of the clear so I still believe she is town, and more than likely not, confirmed town.

Confirmed town is a mech clear. She's not.

I literally am mechanically cleared.

Not_Mafia investigated me with a Weak Hider N2.

People have pointed out that there are scum roles that could block a hider hiding behind scum saving them, but literally every single role that could block a weak hider hiding behind scum from death runs into the same problem. And that problem is why I am conftown, because there is no way to explain the problem AND me not being conftown. You can only explain one, or the other, and if you explain me as being not-conftown you're left with the glaring problem.

I don't see that at at all.

Not_Mafia crumbs visiting you.
Scum partner jailkeeps you.
Scum no kill.
Result: Fake clear on mastina.

I think it's more likely they chose some sort of delayed kill mechanism over NK, which is why we had 2 deaths last night

That would work only if mastina was a delayed killer and her partner was a roleblocker.

[Titus]

Jailkeeper does stop the hider visit. The mod literally confirmed this.

If the jailkeeper targeted Not_Mafia?

Sure!

A jailkeeper targeting Not_Mafia would stop Not_Mafia's visit.

If the jailkeeper targeted Not_Mafia's hide target?

Nope, Not_Mafia's hide still goes through.

But there's a problem with the theory of a mafia jailkeeper jailkeeping Not_Mafia.

What's the problem with a mafia roleblocker or jailkeeper targeting not_mafia?

[Titus]

I think it's more likely scum shot NM directly. Occams razor blah blah.

Mia how do you townread this?

Moon is jumping through hoops spewing blatant impossibilities attempting to muddy the water.

It's not a blatant impossibility that scum shot Not_Mafia. It's unlikely but not impossible.

[Titus]

I think it's more likely scum shot NM directly. Occams razor blah blah.

Mia how do you townread this?

Moon is jumping through hoops spewing blatant impossibilities attempting to muddy the water.

It's not a blatant impossibility that scum shot Not_Mafia. It's unlikely but not impossible.

Actually it is.

Mod confirmed that was well.

Killing actions against him fail as long as he's targeting another player.

Also, for that ridiculous theory to hold water, 2 mafia players targeted 3 town in one night.

If that were possible, they'd have waited for MyLo+1 to instawin.

Right, so if scum suspected NM was an investigator but not hider, they could have targeted him for a kill. The kill would fail because they targeted him while he hid behind mastina.

[Titus]

Mastina, you're attempting to spin any suspicion on you as convoluted. You're smart enough, if you had deduced Not_Mafia was a weak role that him visiting you would result in you being outed as confscum. Doing a block and a no kill would create the opposite impression.

All scum need is one player getting through.

[Titus]

Right, so if scum suspected NM was an investigator but not hider, they could have targeted him for a kill. The kill would fail because they targeted him while he hid behind mastina.

Yes. But this only works if Not_Mafia's hide was successful.

If Not_Mafia's hide was successful...I am conftown.

If Not_Mafia's hide was unsuccessful and mafia targeted him for a kill...he would have died N2.

He didn't die N2, ergo either his hide succeeded or he wasn't targeted by the mafia nightkill N2.
But there's no other option for the lack of N2 nightkill, which means the most likely scenario is that mafia tried to kill him N2.

The logic behind this is painfully self-evident.

I was telling House that scum could have shot NM, thus you aren't confscum. I admit you aren't lockscum I just find you and moongrass the most likely pairing.

[Titus]

Mastina, you're attempting to spin any suspicion on you as convoluted. You're smart enough, if you had deduced Not_Mafia was a weak role that him visiting you would result in you being outed as confscum. Doing a block and a no kill would create the opposite impression.

You're adding an extra thing that is not required.

Blocking Not_Mafia generates the clear in of itself. It doesn't require a no kill. Me just surviving is a clear enough. With Not_Mafia alive on D3 and me alive D3, Not_Mafia's weak hider generates the clear on me.

So there is no reason for me to no-kill.

Again.

You can't explain the no-kill with me as anything other than conftown.

A voluntary no kill explains it, just like moongrass speculated.

[Titus]

Mod: Can a hider be jailkept or roleblocked if such roles exist?

Explicitly the normal version of the role hider can be both Jailkept and roleblocked, and this is the version of the role used for Not_Mafia. I cannot confirm nor deny whether any variant hiders were used in the creation of the scumteam.

"The Normal version of the Hider is one of the simplest: the Hider, when they use their ability, cannot be killed by actions targeted at them; however, if their target dies as a result of an active killing action (e.g. a factional kill or Vigilante shot), the Hider will also die."

No actions other than killing actions fail against the normal version of hider.

NM may well have been both blocked AND targeted.

This post reads like Jingle considers Hider to be killproof (against direct attack), a passive power, which cannot be roleblocked.

No If NM was blocked and targeted for a kill, he would be targeted by a jailkeeper which makes no sense as scum would know he was protected.

[Titus]

i really have to go to sleep but i passed the message onto nancy but please reconsider @titus

I will reconsider when mastina does something townie.

Right now, all she's doing is trying to convince me she's conftown mechanically when that just isn't true.

If she reconsidered moongrass, I'd consider it.

Right now, I don't see that though and moongrass is lockscum.

[Titus]

Like if you put mastina as town, gamma is town fmpov, then you're town koba/nancy.

That leaves moongrass and house.

If mastina's scum, she's never scum with house. That leaves house, me, gamma and you as town. Thus moongrass is the partner.

I'm voting moongrass unless I have to compromise on House.

[Titus]

If House is scum, I would lock mastina as town.

To me, there's two universes. Moon/house or moon/mastina.

[Titus]

A voluntary no kill explains it, just like moongrass speculated.

A voluntary no-kill runs afoul of occam's razor though because it requires inventing a reason to no-kill.

Again, to reiterate:
In the hypothetical world where scumastina has a scumteam with a blocking role that blocks Not_Mafia's hide, Not_Mafia surviving to D3 is, in of itself, enough to falsely conftown scumastina.

You do not need a no-kill for that.

The blocking role, in of itself, generates that. Just by itself. Just alone. Just on its own, a blocking role on Not_Mafia would conftown scumastina N2.

So why no-kill?

What does the no-kill give?

It literally gives nothing more than what we already had.

It gives zero benefit but costs scum a nightkill, a nightkill they could use on conftown or widely townread players.

Requiring a scum no-kill N2 requires inventing extra motives. It requires inventing "scumastina planned in advance to make herself even more conftown by sacrificing her nightkill to make her even more conftown even though Not_Mafia living to D3 would in of itself conftown her, and she did this because she thought that her being conftown from hiding wasn't enough and came up with the no-kill plan specifically to elevate her to an even higher tier of conftown".

Aside from that being an occam's razor violation in of itself, that doesn't fit the modus operandi of scumastina in general. (For that matter, neither does the nom kill N1.) You're familiar enough with my scum methods to know that I maximize reward for the minimal risk and sacrificing the nightkill and roleblocking Not_Mafia is a double violation of that because roleblocking Not_Mafia is banking on him being a role he's not guaranteed to be and sacrificing the nightkill is sacrificing a resource, meaning that the proposed "block Not_Mafia, no-kill" required for me to be scum requires me to make a high-risk, high-reward play rather than just...a near-zero risk, basically just as high reward play of killing AND blocking.

After all, what if Not_Mafia were an ascetic weak hider? A block couldn't have stopped his hide on me then which means if I were scum and that were his role he'd still die, so if I was going down the next day it'd be better to have gotten an extra kill in the night before. That's the smartest play with the least risk and the most reward with a contingency plan built in.

Whereas blocking Not_Mafia and no-killing is a plan with high risk, not really a higher reward, and is putting all of my eggs in one basket with no fallback plan, nothing to help us if the plan goes wrong, if I miscalculated, if I made the wrong call.

And to reiterate: this is pretty damn self-evident. It doesn't take a genius to figure this out.

The simplest explanation for N2 is Not_Mafia, a weak hider, hid behind me, didn't die, cleared me as conftown, and scum tried to nightkill Not_Mafia but failed thanks to the hide.

Any other explanation is a violation of occam's razor requiring you add in extra steps that require extra justifications including ones which fly in the face of facts and established player metas and modus operandi.

That "simple" explanation, doesn't explain the reality in the thread.

It doesn't explain why lockscum moongrass speculates about a no kill.

It doesn't explain why a savvy scumfuck would create more layers to townfirm themselves.

Occam's Razor can easily just say scum were putting all their chips on confirming you as town. That's just as simple.

[Titus]

mastina, bussing isn't townie particularly when a role has to die in order to be able to kill conftown.
I don't care for meta, especially self-meta.
Your relationship with jjh is bad.
Your refusal to see Moongrass as lockscum is bad.
Your attempt to deny instead of accepting reasonable suspicion is bad.

[Titus]

I'm town, if you're town then you're bad and need to take the blame for the loss.

If you are town, you need to understand that you're less townie than everyone else here. That's not solely on me.

[Titus]

I'm town, if you're town then you're bad and need to take the blame for the loss.

If you are town, you need to understand that you're less townie than everyone else here. That's not solely on me.

Yeah I'm not though. If you actually read my posts, I'm the towniest person here today. I make zero sense partnered with anyone, my play makes zero sense as coming from scum this whole freaking game. So if you are town pull your head out from your ass and get your shit together because you're running with scum, not me.

The no kill speculation was garbage
Your push on the hydra was garbage
Your defense of mastina is garbage
Your push on House looks like it could be a bus
Your look at me I'm so town is LAMIST. It's the literal definition.

[Titus]

lmao fuck it
VOTE: gamma

I'm townreading the rest and want to get the hard lim over with

Really?

This is going to need some explanation.

From our PoV we have found town in everyone but those 2 slots.
Gamma has admittedly played a good game if scum but theres no other explaination

From my PoV, there's no way that Moongrass is town here. I can't see Gamma as scum.

I think you're mistaken on one of House or Mastina.

Why is Mastina scum?

mastina's sole focus today is proving herself as "mech clear" and tunnelling me and house.
mastina's not talking about her reads.
You're town. Gamma's town.

That leaves three scum in House/Moongrass/mastina.

Moongrass is just autoscum, as Mastina and House are never aligned.

mastina doesn't even consider Moongrass scum.
House does.

There's my tiebreaker, but I'm voting Moongrass first.
If House flips scum, I'll admit I was wrong on mastina but that she needs to actually play the fucking game.

[Titus]

We're going to hit a problem here Mia. I might compromise on House but I'm never voting Gamma. The more I talk about this, the firmer I become in Moongrass scum.

I don’t agree with voting either of the clears today but you’re asking me to reconsider Mastina and I don’t understand why?

I don't agree with voting mastina today either. I mainly want moongrass as they are scum no matter the universe.

I want mastina because she's moongrass's most likely partner via moongrass's TMI and via her mech talk clears me bullshit.

[Titus]

Oh I forgot to thank Titus too.

But I mean you can both reach out to the hydra and try to get them to vote me when you're both implying it's me/hydra. Keep talking, it's great.

When did Titus say that?

@Are you implying that Titus?

Hell no.

[Titus]

(Realistically speaking here: I am not voting anyone other than Titus or House here today. Gamma is conftown and even were he not, this is Gamma's towngame anyway so he's not scum.

I don't see a world where both Moongrass and Mia+Maya Fey are scum; I don't see that as being the scumteam here.

So realistically, there is a MINIMUM of one scum in House+Titus. It's still

possible

for one of them to be town, which is why I haven't placed my vote down because IF one is town, I need to make sure I am voting the one that is scum. It's a moot point if both are scum, obv, but IF one is town I need to make sure I vote the one that is scum.)

Re: the bolded, glad to see that unlike House, Mastina’s actually reading the game.

Seriously.

You need to read the fucking game.

This is why we lose this game if it's moongrass+mastina.

[Titus]

I'm going off to bed. See y'all tomorrow.

[Titus]

I can't sleep. Ffs can you two not fight about things that don't matter.

Fight about moongrass.
Fight about mastina.
Fight about gamma (for some reason koba thinks he might be scum).

Maybe we can get somewhere then. Nitpicking at each other won't help and will create spite scumreads.

[Titus]

So you townread House Titus?

Mostly yes for his recent stuff. He's not locktown to me, and like I said, I would compromise on him.

There's

Me
Gamma
Hydra



House


mastina




You

[Titus]

So I'm lockscum?

Yes. I have only said it like 50 times.

[Titus]

We have a sudden nightkill that's inexplicable today. We have a missing kill night 2. If scum delayed their kill one day somehow, then the no kill argument is bunk.

Scum vigs are widely frowned upon such that a scum vig is banned in normals.

This means no clear from the lack of a nightkill.

Of course, this theory means Moongrass is only partially TMI.

[Titus]

Ok so i have a big stomachache right now, but my preferred eliminations still House today. I find that an infinitely better elimination that thia fucking ridiculous Mastina/Moon theory where weak hider was roleblocked on night 2 and there was no kill.

This actually does raise a good point that if NM was blocked the no-kill becomes inexplicable

Where did the night 3 extra kill come from if not a delayed night 2 kill?

[Titus]

That speculation as you call it is the only explanation for the extra kill on n3 since there was no way a vig shoots jjh or dgb.

[Titus]

It is in the interest of scum to take an very implausible event and blow it out of proportion to make it seem like the correct choice. Titus/House are both playing exactly how scum should by creating this narrative of Mastina.

Just because it goes against your reads doesn't make it implausible. My theory is the only one that explains everything.

[Titus]

I refuse to let moon be the elimination here

Then we just lose. It's that simple. I can accept House scumreads. I can't accept Moon townreads. :/ So let's say everyone's right and House is scum. That still leaves moon alive tomorrow and if you're not going to vote moon, what's the point?

[Titus]

Honestly, I'm just ready for this game to be over so I can go join another one since so many players in this one are determined to lose anyway.

+1

[Titus]

VOTE: House

Gg if you're scum mastina.

Looks like I am not getting moongrass today.

[Titus]

Ok, having looked it over, i prefer an Moongrass lim to an NK15 lim.
NSG townreads moon but i think their reasoning is pretty meh, just meta.

I'd be fine with that, on the grounds that a Moon red flip leads to an NK elimination the next day.

Moon lost the farm once NK hit E-1 with the elimination moratorium lifted.

What does the last part mean?
And why should NK go with an Moon scumflip?

1) I think NK should go regardless, personally.
2) Moon bent over backwards defending them when I put NK in lolhammer range with NM in the game.

so i went back and relooked at d1/d2 house and what stood out to me the most was the constant appeals to Titus - this pings me as a player who is trying to set up an early pocket. Titus, I do implore you got look at that yourself.

And this post in particular popped out at me - this implies moon and house are not aligned together which solidified my wish for moon to NOT be limmed here ever.

House admitting they put NK at lolhammer range to bait a NM hammer when NK flipped an enabler role that ended up being linked to the IC is also fairly damning.

in short, vote house then gamma, win game.

If House was capturing me, I am still not voting gamma. Ever.

[Titus]

i implore you to vote gamma if house flips a role that can mess with a hider especially if our slot is nightkilled

There's no evidence that NM was anything other than a troll n1.

[Titus]

I think that a good chunk of this setup was defined by elitism. Sure we got unlucky with the rand of NM getting the hider. Forcing a troll to play it straight was difficult for him.

People withheld information from those they scumread, putting them behind the eightball and preventing a changing of reads. No one really second guessed their reads but for me and jjh during the day we eliminated cyrus.

No one second guessed the gamma clear.

Pushing back on someone resulted in a scumread. Making the game full of cliques.

[Titus]

Just how did you bypass the clear?

Why the no kill?

How did the dual kill happen?

[Titus]

Fifth, the town handicapped themselves by not even considering that there might be a method of introducing doubt in the clears.

I did, just not Gamma's.

[Titus]

I still think scum vigs are bad design. :/

[Titus]

I think having a whole phase to selecting the stumps dragged down the game. At max, if at all, include a 48 hour discussion period for those who want to be stumps. Then have everyone rate each other on a scale. Fewest two are stumps. Ties are broken randomly.

[Titus]

I think WIM is the most important thing to bring in a stump game as a stump.

I agree that this is important. If you'll note all of my proposed names were active and stayed active. I just fundamentally disagree with the idea that finding scum is a stump's primary utility.

I agree with this.

A town stump's utility is to get the best from town, especially if they disagree from them.

[Titus]

I think most of town expected a weak hider to have no counterplay, which is bad thinking on our parts.

[Titus]

The hydra did recover after their flub.

[Titus]

Where?

[Titus]

I inferred that was town overconfidence in the game being solved.