Abarat: Days of Magic, Nights of War Mafia (Endgame)

[RedCoyote]

Vote: OnceAndForEver

because he has the best avatar of anyone in the game.

For the record, I

love

the post limitation rule.

The fact that chesskid isn't an IC is disappointing.

[RedCoyote]

Unvote

,

vote: Shinori

Going to put myself out there and join the crowd on this one. Mainly for this part,

I still see it as scummy, when did I say that I thought it made him feel more town like in my eyes?

It's just strange that the player we're talking about is the one you're voting. Am I splitting hairs, or is defending a player not the same as calling them town? I don't think I am, and I think this is a worthy wagon.

---

Do not like that last post, the timing of that vote sucks.

You plan to do something about it, pal?

---

Now it's not overwhelmingly powerful (in that 33% chance is only slightly better than 28%) but it is useful.

I don't know if that necessarily means we should halt the entire day and choose between the three though.

---

Hey RC, have you read the game yet? Yourr thoughts?

Uh, I think MoI claimed his info a bit early. I felt like I would've liked to see the day progress naturally without that information.

I'd like to ask him more about his power and if he is going to be getting more information as the game goes on, but I don't want the general public privy to that information.

Other than that, I take it with a grain of salt. I have no idea if MoI is town or not. For all we know this could be some tactic. I mean, playing devil's advocate with this, a weak scum role taking out three random town players based on some clever trick wouldn't be half bad. Bella is the scum, she flips town, chess must be it, he flips town, that leaves peta... he flips town. That's several days down with little to show for it because we completely narrowed our field of vision and trusted the game to MoI's word.

I don't know, I'm thinking maybe it's more of a Vig problem.

---

@RC – did you read the thread prior to your RVS vote?

Not particularly closely, no. I saw that OAFE had claimed Miller, but that didn't change the reason I wanted to vote him.

---

I have no reason not to believe MoI at this juncture

But why should we err on the side of believing him when, should we choose to find his claim skeptical, nothing changes and the game carries on as usual.

---

So to directly answer Reg – it isn’t certain that my list contains Night aligned.

:/

---

Even if MoI is telling the truth, something I'm not entirely convinced of, I'd rather lynch people I find scummy than people within his set, if those 2 things overlap, sure I'll use it as a tie breaker. They don't at the moment.

Well put.

---

Where's the scum motivations in that kind of shenanigan.

See above. It causes enough dissonance to the status quo to throw the town off kilter. Um, like, worst case scenario, everyone believes him, lynches all three in a row and they all flip town. Okay, well, that's 3 days wasted and then MoI is in the spotlight.

That won't happen though. It won't be that simple. It will carry through for a while. Maybe eventually we'll hit all three of them, but I doubt it would be so coordinated. What's going to happen is that not all three of them will be taken out before, say, Day 6. By that point, whether MoI is alive or not, there will have been enough complete confusion to have served its purpose.

I'm not saying that's what's going on, I'm just saying I'm not going to use (or fall for) any argument that bases itself on the idea that MoI wouldn't do this as scum.

---

nobody is saying MoI is pushing SCUMGENDA here

they are saying MoI is pushing POLICYGENDA + LOLTHERE'SPROLLY1SCUMHERE

Yeah, it felt a bit forced.

---

I very much like where you are going with the bolded … my intial reaction was just that.

He's certainly sure of himself. Did you also notice how he slipped in that little "the town should follow MoI or vote me" comment? Even for a Miller claim, it stood out to me.

[RedCoyote]

I thought he was scummy because of his inability to post and his inability to actually explain anything behind his vote, which is why I was wondering if it was something he normally does, because if it is something he does then I wanted to know if he tends to do it more as town or scum. I did not state that I found him scummy at the time because I didn't see it was required considering multiple other players in this same thread have voted someone with no reasoning and have not been called out on it, yet they obviously feel their vote should be on their target.

It sounds odd, Shinori. This whole discussion sounds off. You sound panicky. You're sitting here saying you didn't mean this, didn't mean that. Please leave me alone, please leave me alone.

When someone is voted or suspected and their kneejerk response is to cry and scream that their attackers are being unfair or whatever... it doesn't bode well with me. Now you're stuck on Seraphim and I have no opinion on the guy whatsoever because he's done nothing particularly important to me. You're sitting here saying you thought this and didn't think this about Seraphim, and I'm just thinking in my head what kind of person spends so much time crafting their opinion of someone with so little content. It just sounds off.

---

Mina, if you

know

that Hito dislikes millers is there any particular reason your vote isn't on OAFE right now?

Can anyone vouch for this? I feel like I should know this about our Mod, but I can't seem to recall ever hearing this from him.

---

Yeah I pressed submit early

Do you really live in Latvia, Staeg? Did you know I'm a secret admirer of yours?

---

nuwen literally hadn't posted any content at the point where you made that post. why include her?

Quoting this because I don't want Llamarble to miss it.

---

practice, mostly. how town express their frustration usually give off a different vibe from scumfrustration.

and shinori's posts have that vibe of town who doesn't understand why a wagon grew so quickly on him and is frustrated cause he thinks he didn't do anything wrong. with scum, I would expect to see more "oh shit they caught me" vibes.

You want to know what vibe you give off to me? Bullshit.

---

Where did I ever claim we should do this? Seriously I’m not advocating at all that we should at all be forced to lynch between the three. The information is just that … information.

I just assumed that were the case. If you say that was not your intention, then I withdraw that allegation entirely. The proof is in the pudding, and if your words and actions follow in line with what you're saying here, then there will be no further judgment from me.

Why is having the Commexo (or however you spell it) in the three as opposed to Night a bad thing?

Will there be?

---

ALSO: RC is not sucm if OFAE is. He was ignorant of OFAE's claim, which going with my theory that it was discussed in the scum qt pre-game, would clear him for the most part for me.

You realize this means we may be on the same team for once in God only knows how long.

---

see the Amazing Spiderman

How was it?

[RedCoyote]

you're sounding kind of fake dude

I can buy it. Shinori's wagon jumped up relatively quickly. For Nuwen to not make a comment when adding another vote to the tally was odd based on what little I know about her.

---

I don't think Mina would lie about hitos modding preferences and Fate seems to have some memory of Hito also commenting on his dislike of the miller role so even though this is a large game and not a mini theme I think the chances that a miller role actually does exist given his mod preferences is quite low. Play wise I don't mind his focus on the 'vote inside the 3' thing because that likely is decent play optimally speaking but I don't like his reasoning behind choosing Peta over Bella and his 'why would town lie!' thing seems to be his only contributions since then. I wouldn't mind a lynch on him at the moment.

If no one can speak to the contrary, then I think OAFE is in a bit of a pickle.

Unvote

;

vote: OnceAndForEver

With this information, I have little confidence in his claim. This coupled with his jumping unnecessarily on MoI's coattails without so much as batting an eye really implores me to vote him. There's something about putting yourself up to be lynched the way he did in post 80 that just doesn't sit right with me. I can't emphasize enough how much I think it's possibly the worst single post of the entire thread so far.

This is something that I'm having trouble comprehending, Fate is conftown so the '

may

be on the same team' doesn't make sense at all since you should

know

that you're town and thus

know

that you're on the same team. Interested on Fates/others taken on this though because it's possible I'm reading too much into it.

Eh, you're reading to much into it. It's a common talking point, and I have a tendency to qualify everything. I'm obviously not claiming scum, but I know how analytical you can get over rhetoric. Kind of a similar situation to saying 'we' versus 'the town'. (i.e. If someone says the town are they implying that they're not part of it?)

Although, to be fair, I have been caught on a slip before, lol. So that's certainly not the worst rationale I've ever heard for voting me.

---

I become something that looks evil, but I'm not, I can temporarily prevent this, but its active most of the time, therefore I figured it would be a good idea to share.

You know, reading this, even if the Mod disliked Millers, it seems like the theme may lend to the idea that they're appropriate for a specific character.

I'm going to hold on to my vote, but I guess I just want to be on the record of having just realized that even if a Mod dislikes a role, there's a real possibility that they may feel more inclined or even obligated to use it should they think their theme calls for it.

---

Also the wording thing with him isn't lynch worthy, RC has a unique style as town that gets him misread often. He's said some subtle town thins so far as well.

Tell that to your partner. After all, Reg and I may be on the same team.

---

i fkn asked you a question how about you read over THAT

Lol, I love this.

---

the two matrices were OAFE + an experienced player and me + shinori. then fate said rc can't be scum with OAFE. so you're saying the correct matrix is me + shinori, right? Does that mean you have a townread on OAFE andor scumreads on me + shinori?

Can we cut back on this? We're not in calculus, ffs. Just type it longhand because we're running into situations where we have to explain what the matrix or matricies are and it's confusing 4nx as well as yours truly.

---

"She was the scummiest vote on the wagon"
"would I write that as scum? Probably"

"would you write that as town"
"are there scummier people"
"why do I think she's the scummiest"
"how is she the scummiest just because I might write that post as scum"
"what am I doing"

I don't know what you're talking about. This is total jibberish. I suspect you're harping on Llama because you want to at this point. What he said makes perfect sense to me. Now, I mean, you can agree with it or not, but you try to make it sound like he's talking in circles (I guess that's what you're doing?) isn't accurate.

---

I mentioned the miller thing to throw OAFE off-guard, but to be honest, I'm not confident that it's incriminating. This was months ago, and unfortunately, I don't remember what hito's objection was to millers (it had something to do with Mafia theory) or how adamant he was against them. I can't find the chat log. Faraday asked me a cryptic question in Abarat about whether hito had ever spoken to me about his thoughts on player expectations (Something like that? I can check the cache files when I get home)--that I asked him about after the game. And I just remember the answer had something to do with him disliking millers.

:/

Throw OAFE off-guard, huh?

So what's the verdict then? What would you say is the conclusion of your reaction fishing?

I mean more that my other half prefers that we keep our cards close to our chest.

Sounds like a waste of two perfectly good players. I hate that notion with a passion. If everyone played with that mentality, we'd get nowhere fast.

---

His lack of comment on OAFEs miller claim given that he's admitted he knew about it is off-putting, I don't like his reasoning behind jumping onto the Shinori wagon and he hasn't actually stated another read at all.

I can't really speak to the first two points. If that's how you feel, that's how you feel.

With regards to other reads, I'm happy to give reads on anyone at any time. I always am.

Right now I think you and Fate may be town (okay, lol, I'll stop). Disliking 4nx, OAFE, Shinori, Seraphim, Hindu, and Minimum. Liking Flash, chess, Staeg, and UT.

Everyone not mentioned is in the middle somewhere, but I'm settling in nicely. Reads are flowing to me easily, so that's a pretty good sign.

---

ok, Hinduragi, who cares, what's your point? You don't seem to be arguing for anything in particular here. Scum team have power roles, *yipee*?

Hindu is acting very strangely. I don't know if he's overthinking things or what, but he's really coming across as a spaz to me. I could easily see that as him trying to force himself to be relevant when, in reality, it's just a bunch of noise to keep his post count up.

---

No? Not even close to it, we're only 4 days into a 21 day phase, not even 20% into the length allowed to us. Compromising and consolidation isn't needed at all right now. In fact I'd rather people be voting their stronger reads rather than reads that are most agreed on right now.

I agree with this, and it's very odd for Nuwen to even bring that up. I agree with the sentiment, but not with the hurriedness.

But I would like to hear more from Bella, Flash, Nacho, Seraphim, Shmugen, UT, and sword though.

[RedCoyote]

Mod

, I'm going to be out of town on Sunday and Monday.

[RedCoyote]

Eh, I have to admit that peta's 286 is really awkward. I guess him acknowledging that makes it better. The part that really gets me is the, "what am i supposed to do if i don't have scum reads............ tell me how to look town, please!!"

Anyways, I'm out for a couple of days.

[RedCoyote]

I may have been premature to judge 4nx. He seems to have got Staeg over a barrel with regard to flipping his vote to UT.

You know, Staeg never even mentioned UT prior to that vote switch. I don't follow that reasoning. Let's not make this more complicated than it is... either something changed his mind about his OAFE vote, or something changed his mind about UT that suddenly shot him to number one.

In either case, it's an abrupt switch that triggered Fate/Reg to gauge his fortitude. He seems cool enough though, Fate. I don't like his vote switch, but is there something that's sticking out to you two with regard to his extended reaction?

"I'm going to die, aren't I? Thing."

Is he being too cool?

One thing for sure...

unvote

based on OAFE's extended claim. I also see why he was reluctant to give it.

Vote: petapan

over his complete and utter lack of individuality and self-doubt. Um, I have a couple of answers for Reg and MoI that will be forthcoming.

[RedCoyote]

So we've got kind of a PR-killer thing going on with sending someone to Marapozsa Street?

Unless someone wanted to volunteer if they think they have a role that would hurt more than it would help? That may lend creditability because I suspect if we send a Night-aligned player there they may not be able to kill. Would this be right,

Mod

?

[RedCoyote]

with the scumteam already down a roleblocker, I see no problem with rolling the dice in marapoza street

The more I think about it, the more I actually think the risk is probably not worth the reward.

I don't know though, I feel like it could be advantageous if someone claims VT. Like Reg said, there's no real loss to using it on that person, except for the fact that we wouldn't want them to be our lynch… Hm…

---

…What?

Yeah, I had the same reaction. Funny how he didn't even mention to contradiction…

---

Yes.

VOTE: Bella

Usually this sort of abruptness doesn't turn me off, but this just feels kind of weird. The situation makes all the difference here. The hostile reaction to Reg in one post, and then, minutes later, submitting to his suggestion without any resistance at all. No, he couldn't have just made that decision on his own.

I didn't have time last night to do a VCA or really rip apart the first day. I should have time today at work after I finish reading through the thread

Yet you know you're voting the right person?

---

Question to everyone – how much bussing do you think went on with the Staeg wagon? I ask because taking a look at it I realized none of the Nightkilled Townies were on it.

Good point. I think two would be a reasonable guess.

---

the lynch was essentially pushed through by Fate and majority of the votes that followed were sheeping of it.

Huh? And that fact excludes scum bussing how…?

---

I'm not at ALL in panic mode so you absolutely suck at reading tone

This whole "leave me alone" thing isn't going to work for me.

Vote: MattP

I'm deliberately choosing not to pick someone to send to Marpoza Street at this time.

[RedCoyote]

I messed up slightly on my copy and paste. I forgot to include that I really liked post 672. If one were betting solely on Staeg connections, chesskid would be a worthy place to start.

[RedCoyote]

Unvote

Send: MattP

We can send MattP, but somehow I feel cheated. I feel like that was a solid Staeg connection from D1. AGar's point is well made (about the collapse of the wagon, not about Bella). I've been sort of mum on Bella, which hasn't been intentional. Our paths really have crossed thus far.

I'm also just realizing that the post restrictions were only for that first day, which is unfortunate.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: Our paths really

haven't

crossed thus far.

[RedCoyote]

Doesn't post for almost 48 hours here while posting all over sight.
Pops up within 8 minutes of me mentioning she's a good vote.

Scum motivated active lurking right here ...

If there is scum motivated lurking, I'd suspect these would be its attributes.

---

Want to quicklynch me over something I had no control over, go right ahead and spare me the effort of reading through.

Yuck.

It's the "go right ahead" thing that really does it. Like MoI made a comment about her claiming her integrity was being tarnished, this comment really puts me off.

---

Send Bella or Peta. Preferably Bella, who concidentally is not voting to Send her top scumread to the snowglobe of waking mind-death.

I see your point, but this was an argument that should've been made earlier and harder. You kind of missed the boat.

---

I could go for sending Bella, anything to force more pressure on her.

Yeah, talk talk talk.

Where's the action? I'm assuming you're patting Nuwen on the back given that you're mentioning the player he chose (Bella). Why not start a new wagon?

---

Send: MattP

Did Nuwen's vote to send Bella push you over the edge? What I'm trying to get at is I don't understand why you didn't vote to send MattP earlier. Was this a hydra thing? Or would I be way off base in assuming you did this to prevent a longer debate over who/if to send?

Tierce should die but this inactivity-based stuff is still lazy.

The ends justify the means in lynching correctly, wouldn't you agree? I mean, why even make this point? Maybe I could understand if you then followed this sentence up with, "Here's what I think is really bad..." or something like that.

Otherwise I see this more like someone attempting to position themselves in a certain way after Tierce flips how you know she will.

I mean, there's a motivation behind everything.

I don't think anyone particularly cares about just your reads and the vote is pointless.

Everything y'all say just rubs me the wrong way. Why is a Shmug vote pointless?

Actually, let me rephrase that. How do you know a vote on someone is pointless before it has been put out there and attempted to be sold to the player base?

---

Lynch me if you want. I won't fight it that hard. Just make sure you take time to decide if you are gonna lynch me and who's gonna hammer me.

Bomb fear tactics? Pfffahahaha.

UNVOTE: AGar
VOTE: Shinori

Ugh, I don't know which one is worse.

Actually I do.

Vote: Tierce

[RedCoyote]

Granted 4nx seems unlikely to follow through with being the top banana, but I've seen unlikelier things happen.

It'd be nice to get 4nx to give it more attention regardless though. Because it is silly to just leave his vote out there like that otherwise.

[RedCoyote]

Hmmmm...

Talk about your WIFOM. Shinori picked a weird time to use that. Hindu is right, he wasn't going to be lynched. Surely he had to have known that.

It's almost too obvious that that was being used to protect Tierce, you know? Like, he used it to make us think he wanted to protect Tierce (and he actually really does, but wanted us to think that move would be too obvious).

Ugh. Not thrilled with peta's reaction. Again. Feels extremely forced. I don't like that sentiment at all, as I've expressed before.

Vote: petapan

I'm not ruling out a Tierce lynch (as you can see above), but it would be nice to talk about that angle. Because that was a really strange time to use that power.

That said, maybe the Night-team thought it was their only option to protect Tierce.

[RedCoyote]

All voting is feels, my friend.

But, you know... this is too strange of a situation to not act on it. Even if scum framed Tierce, what are they getting out of it? A replacement that doesn't post is lynched. There's no reason to believe they know if she's a PR or not.

Unvote

;

vote: Tierce

I contend we continue as planned because there's no reason to change course. Unless someone has a creditable explanation for Shinori's action, then I am going to Occum's Razor this thing.

[RedCoyote]

Well, the claim means little to me given the fact that I am not that role (Numa Child). Has anyone claimed it yet? I don't see anyone vouching for her. I don't buy the argument that she wouldn't claim something so easily disprovable if she was scum. I know nothing of the theme however.

Matt, what's the hold up?

Look, I stand by my comment. I feel pretty strongly that this is the best explanation for Shinori's action. Shinori didn't strike me as the type to make such a rash decision like that at such an inappropriate time. Even if he did just do this to throw us off, I feel like we have the leeway with which to go forward and take that risk. I would kick myself harder for second guessing myself away from a Tierce lynch to have her flip scum than I would to push forward and have her flip town. This feels good in both my mind and my gut, which, unsurprisingly, don't often seem to be in line.

peta's not-so-subtle calls to slow down this wagon stick out like a sore thumb.

[RedCoyote]

Kill first; ask questions later.

[RedCoyote]

It's what our IC-duo would've wanted.

[RedCoyote]

Mod

, what is an anti-prod?

[RedCoyote]

i'm not even saying i have a town-read on tierce though if i had to guess right now she is town

Parse them words!

Lol, "I'm not saying I have a town-read, but I would guess she's town."

If

I

had to guess, I'd guess you're staking on a fake position to sound relevant in a time when it doesn't matter.

i am saying people are too narrowly focused like they've already given up on this day and it is driving me up the wall

and hell i'll do it once more, with feeling, so that it just might penetrate someone's skull this time

Yeah, I like that (except when it sounds fake, which, unfortunately, I think it does coming from you), but now you have another problem. You're changing your playstyle mid-game here. You got on my case earlier when I called you out for being too wimpy. Now you're giving us the business about how no one is paying you any mind.

No way, man. You're totally fake. You're totally trying too hard to act town.

[RedCoyote]

Except I'm not trying to shoot you down for coming on strong. I'm trying to shoot you down for changing your playstyle when it best suits your agenda.

[RedCoyote]

I also keep forgetting that UT is playing this game, which he would post more along with bella and Nuwen.

I feel UT might be scum though and I feel bella as more town.

Quotes like this make me think Bella is town.

But Shinori, it seems, also pushed chess way too hard. If you go through his iso, he is over-the-top in his pushing of chess.

But then we have this...

MoI

- My highest priority town read at the moment. I don't see scum doing what he did with a random ass gambit not to mention the majority of his posts scream obv!town to me. But bringing up his bit of info that his role supposedly has, which I am inclined to believe is true and that it isn't a gambit at all, is even more reason to think that he is town.

Bella and Peta

- These two are town and directly involved with MoI in my eyes, since I think MoI is town and telling the truth about his role that means one of the people he stated is scum, I believe chesskid to be scum which means that the other two would have to be town, unless it was troll-worthy and there was actually two scum here or the third party member here, which I highly doubt cause it would be IMBA.

Seraphim

- Originally I was suspicious of him because he wasn't saying much and he did something that seemed scummy in my eyes, however supposedly norm for him I guess or something, never really got my answer. He doesn't have too many posts but they seem town to me especially #324. In general his thoughts about Chesskid have been the same as mine.

4nxi3ty

- I like his posts #450 and his most recent #636 Same general thing though where he isn't posting all that much but I like his posts. Wish he would post more so we can have more of his thoughts.

Hinduragi

- Most obvious town I think behind MoI, besides Bella and Peta. Active, posting thoughts, I did not however like his aggressiveness towards OAFE and I felt like the majority of that was a waste of time, which it was. Unless you wanna go back and look at the people who were on his wagon when he was at about 8 votes or so, which could be beneficial, because I feel like scum most likely were on it in some way shape or form. Other than his posts towards OAFE he has a massive town vibe coming from him for me, and he was a fan of the staeg lynch and believes UT was scum as well. I like him.

The last scum is in this group of six.

I feel pretty strongly that the last scum member is peta. With regard to Shinori, peta is just thrown into his town reads on the back of MoI's 1 of 3 claim. The only other time he really mentions him is to weakly call him out for not voting (which he never follows up on).

Scum:
AGar
Seraphim
Shinori
Shmugen

I'm less inclined to this the scum would be in this grouping just due to the fact that Tierce strikes me as the pragmatic type.

AGar was seemingly pushed pretty hard by the scumteam early on. He was always left as a posibility for all of them even while the idea of a wagon on him faded away.

Ludi, Hinduragi, 4nxi3ty, MoI, Flash, petapan all town.

Because of what I said above, I'm more inclined to put her last partner in this list. Hindu, peta, and 4nx sync up with Shinori's earlier list.

Something else I wanted to say that I didn't get a chance to before the day was over was, again, I really did not like the things peta was saying towards the end of the day.

i don't pay attention to people who don't pay attention to anything i'm actually saying

none of what i am arguing

none of it

is an actual reason to keep her from being lynched (aside from a weak feeling i cannot properly explain)

so if you're not going to actually read anything i have to say then fuck you up yours i'm not joining your lynch because i'm apparently not playing the same game as you

Way too moody, way too self-absorbed, and way too defensive. No one that was actually playing the game to hunt scum would've thought Hindu was calling them out.

go fuck yourself

VOTE: tierce

when she flips town i hope the rest of the players in this game have the good sense to not listen to a word you say from now on

fucking douchebag

every post you make is patently full of shit but you're probably town regardless and i'm done trying to cooperate with people who are clearly predisposed to ignore me so i'm playing to the troll win condition now

All of this? This is all straight "I'm pretending to be over-emotional and deeply invested in this game... so much so that people will think, wow maybe we ought to back off of peta".

---

Lynch Tierce. Thia stalling is dumb and everyone is pretending they've forgotten the wagon even happened. All the reasons presented to keep her from being lynched, those around the claim, are dumb and don't take into account the very fucking reason she was wagoned in the first place.

This is town, btw.

Everything Hindu did toward the end of yesterday seems pretty honest to me.

[RedCoyote]

Anyways, I guess the short of my argument is that peta needs to either be lynched or do the hammer. Whether we have Bella or Matt in with him I could go either way one. I personally think there's more evidence to suggest Bella would be the partner than Matt, but I think that's redundant because I feel strongly peta is it. Staeg basically ignores him (relative to Bella and chess), Shinori pushes chess way too hard to make me think they're buddies, and both Tierce's and Shinori's town lists include peta for flimsy, semi-hidden reasons.

Vote: petapan

All that said, I'm not necessarily betting on MoI's claim, but it just so happens that one of the three MoI fingered is my largest scumread, while the other two I don't particularly feel strong about either way.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: Whether we have Bella or Matt in with him I could go either way

on

.

[RedCoyote]

Minimum (or anyone who wants to answer it), don't you think today's lynch stipulation adds a little credence to MoI's claim? It seems like it's perfectly made for a sort of split decision "either X or Y has to be scum" role.

I don't know. Like I said, I might be bias given my scumread on peta. It just seems like that role and this scenario fit well together.

[RedCoyote]

Ah, I missed the claim.

Unvote

I really thought I was on to something with the interactions between our flipped scum and peta.

I guess in that case we could go with Bella/Matt and have peta jail MoI?

[RedCoyote]

Vote: Bella

[RedCoyote]

I explained why I thought it was more likely that Bella was scum rather than Matt. But it was mostly due to the interactions between Shinori and chess. I don't think they're scum together.

If MoI is scum... then jailkeeping would stop the shot. Odds are that they will not cross-kill. Why would we not play with the odds? I mean, that's your only reason for letting scumMoI get his shot off, right? That he may hit the other scum? If we're 1/1/13 right now, there would be a 1/12 chance that MoI would inadvertently kill the other scum, and an 11/12 chance he'd hit a townie (and potentially another PR).

[RedCoyote]

Well, look, Hindu/Flash/Minimum, it was easy to dismiss MoI on D1 when we had no scum flips. I took the same approach that Flash did early on: if we find scum among the three, then we should go for it, but we shouldn't let it influence our decision otherwise. Now it's kind of turned out to be a little more serious. Let's be frank: a lot more serious. You can't just dismiss it so easily. It's the elephant in the room.

[RedCoyote]

I just can't write it off as easily as MoI goofing around. Sorry. You can write a page on how much you think Bella is town, but this problem has to be resolved. I don't know how y'all can just bury your collective heads in the sand and pretend it's not standing there right in front of us. Not on the premise that MoI was screwing around. Nah, that's a total cop out. MoI hasn't given the indication that he was staging a gambit, and, when asked directly, he flatly denied it. Sure, that was in D1, but that doesn't mean it doesn't continue to apply.

Besides, I wouldn't want to lynch until he came back anyways. If that means twiddling thumbs for a few days, well, so be it. But I'm committed at this point. Minimum, I think you mentioned that the role was unreasonable. I disagree completely. The Mod had no way to predict the unfortunate start the Night-aligned team would have. It doesn't make MoI a mini-IC either. It's solidly helpful, but it's also WIFOMy. I guess we're just seeing this theme completely differently, and I don't know what to say to resolve that.

[RedCoyote]

Ah, Minimum, I think I'm prejudicing you based on earlier in the game. I've reread your posts and your context has been duly noted; I retract your name from that group. I don't know what to tell you, Mina. I'm not quite as scrupulous as I used to be. It's been a long time coming. I'm just losing the heart for it, I guess. I still don't know what you're getting at with this Jailkeeper thing. I have no real interest in playing games with you though, so I'll just leave it as a disagreement.

I guess we need to find another bad guy in our ragtag group here. Shmug fits the bill nicely as far as I'm concerned. I don't get the impression he's really gone far out of his way to stick his neck out. A good way at finding a third party role is to find that one guy that has made a million posts and has made sure the lynches have gone through with little resistance. Shmug and Hindu both seem to fit those bills.

[RedCoyote]

Since the whole "Lynch Bella/get MattPTammy to hammer" plan has fallen through,

Unvote

.

Just as planned?

[RedCoyote]

@RedCoyote

– Why did your posts on Post 1142 posit that Jailkeeping me would stop the scum Nightkill when there are 2 Night left?

Hmmm... I was under the impression there were 4 Night-aligned for some reason. I see that's not the case. So I withdraw that. This also explains a little bit more why I wasn't understanding Minimum's argument.

This actually changes things quite a bit, now I'm not so sure we

should

continue to focus on the 1-of-3. It gives a lot more credit to the arguments we've heard from Flash.

Still, the possibility that the 1-of-3 is a Commexo is something golden that's tough to ignore.

Eh, in either case, I'm not nearly as gungho as I was earlier.

Unvote

;

vote: Seraphim

I don't think this Tammy crusade has any real underlying meaning. I think his going from chess is scum, to Matt is town, to sending Matt to Marapoza Street, to wanting to lynch Bella, to wanting to lynch Tammy. I don't know what's going on in his head.

[RedCoyote]

Lol, we're still talking about the slip! Oh, dear. MoI, you can't read me at all, bud.

[RedCoyote]

Huh.

These powers are bonkers.

Unvote

;

vote: Tammy

If I'm reading AGar's claim right, that's a lot of weight to put on Tammy. I've felt strongly that Tammy is not Night-aligned, but it's hard to ignore the overwhelming evidence against this role slot as an anti-town one.

[RedCoyote]

Does this have to do with MoI not being killed yesterday despite the fact he was the hammer?

[RedCoyote]

Ah, nevermind. Just did a quick ISO of Gamma.

I don't see any reason for Gamma to be lying here.

Vote: MagnaOfIllusion

[RedCoyote]

Anyway I square it... I just don't see the benefit. I really don't. MoI knew he was being run up. Gamma's claim is pretty damn solid, and you can justify it by just looking at Gamma's D3/D4 play where he is basically saying that were should wait for MoI in every other sentence. I mean, I get the gambit, but you've got to know when to back down. If you don't back down then, when do you back down? I've been trying to piece together a way that MoI still had that information and Gamma is lying scum, but it is so farfetched and illogical that I would rather lose to Gamma and hate on the Mod if all those pieces fell so perfectly for him. He's town.

So let me try to put it all together in my head. Tammy and Gamma are pretty much confirmed town. AGar's partner role (Mrs. Scattamun), is still out there and is confirmed town (although it's possible Tammy is this role?).

But, according to AGar's claim, if Mrs. Scattamun attempted to block the same people he did last night (me and Seraphim), that means that both of us would've been blocked? And, since AGar was the only person killed, one of the kills was blocked?

So, I mean, is it fair that Mrs. Scattamun would've followed AGar's lead? I think it is.

Vote: Seraphim

I mean, am I on the right track here? It's a 50/50 between me and Seraphim. I don't see why Mrs. Scattamon would not have followed AGar's lead. Logically I don't see why not. You're basically getting two free roleblocks on two unclaimed players that haven't had very big presences in the game. I don't know why Seraphim didn't acknowledge this in his above post (especially given the fact that he said he "agrees" with everything Minimum is saying).

The only way this will get screwed up, I think, is if one of us is actually Mrs. Scattmun. But otherwise I would gladly submit myself to a 50/50 shot with Seraphim. Unless someone else can tell me where I am going wrong in my analysis of things...

[RedCoyote]

Oh, wait, as I'm rereading it, Tammy isn't confirmed anything.

Minimum, why do you say it's possible she's confirmed scum?

[RedCoyote]

RC: there's a chance we're not 50/50 though, because of petapan's ability.

True. I didn't factor that in. Of course there's also a chance he didn't use it whatsoever. If I had to guess who he'd have used it on, I would probably guess Tammy.

---

It's likely he used it on night 3, so that is one more possible reason for the lack of two night kills on night 3. However, I can't imagine why someone would try to kill peta on night 3. It wasn't until day 4 that MoI's gambit was found out, and before then he was trying to discredit peta, so that doesn't seem likely.

Right. I went back and read over one of his last posts where he said it was a limited ability. So the things Flash and Seraphim are noting are still speculative. It's all speculative. I don't think a scum role would've withheld a kill though.

So, I mean, you try and go with what you think is most likely to have been the case. I happen to think that is the Mrs. Scattmun blocks. The second most likely is probably a double-AGar kill.

---

This is pushing me towards the possibility that Seraphim is the last Night player in the game.

The other is that

Hinduragi

and

Gammagooey

have been on every single lynch wagon thusfar. I'd call that a very mild Commexo tell - and given that Hindu was one of the people who shot down AGar's talk of Commexo hunting on day two, there's something there I'd like to look at further, particularly since I'm currently on the side of Gammatown.

I agree 100% with everything said here. I'm completely comfortable with my vote.

[RedCoyote]

Minimum, come on. What do you mean "especially given the claim"?

Here, I'll fix that for you. Especially given the claim it sounds like Seraphim is coming across as a defeated night-aligned player.

[RedCoyote]

VT is an understated role? How so?

[RedCoyote]

But, I mean, what I'm getting at is how likely is it that peta blocked a kill versus Mrs. Scattamun? I mean, if I was forced to guess who peta would've blocked, I'd say Tammy. So if we're really going with that conclusion, then I guess Tammy is a decent vote. Otherwise I don't see the point in ignoring it. Bella's post especially gives us some much needed perspective with regards to wagon analysis. Seraphim just doesn't look good in either of those viewpoints.

[RedCoyote]

Eh, he went back and forth.

All these posts suggest he wanted you dead. I think after the Quilford flip he changed his mind.

Anyways, this is all moot. I think it's silly to try and guess at peta's intentions when we are fairly certain of Mrs. Scuttamun's actions.

[RedCoyote]

RedCoyote: have you ever played as SK before?

No, actually, I haven't. Cult twice (once a leader; once a recruit), but that's it with regard to third party roles.

[RedCoyote]

This makes me think that Peta might have JK’d a NK…so it might be possible that RC and/or Seraphim might not have been one of the killers. If Peta did in fact JK a kill then RC and or Seraph would both be cleared. Again I don’t see why Mrs Agar wouldn’t pick Agar’s given targets…as reading the info , their powers only work if they both choose the same target(s). I would say that she come forward only ONLY if she targeted Tammy and NOT Quilford on N2…or unless she has any other relevant info she might be able to give us.…

Maybe. I guess I'm fighting this because I don't want it to be true... because then I have to look elsewhere.

---

Still, all this arguing misses the point that Occam's Razor dictates that peta was targeted N3 and was responsible for the missed kill.

Well, I remember very clearly that everyone went back and forth on peta claiming JK with bulletproof powers. He didn't know how to phrase it or whatever. That all happened on the day he claimed, if I recall correctly.

Still, this is a good point.

[RedCoyote]

I went back over the game this morning. I focused mostly on the scumflips, but I also want to bring Llamarble back into this game because there's certainly the possibility he hid behind scum on the first night. It was kind of assumed that he hid behind one of the people that were shot, but that may not have necessarily been the case. He was sort of indifferent toward Nacho and OAFE. peta suggested he probably would've hid behind one of his townreads, and I think that's reasonable. That's what I would've done as Hider. Anyways, that list is Flash, 4nx, Bella, and ML. Flash and Bella are both unflipped.

OnceAndForEver
petapan
Nuwen
Flash
MoI
(Fate)
(Regfan)

Quilford's list of townies. Flash is the only non-flipped player on this list.

Top 5 town reads not counting IC with reasonings:

MoI

[...]

Bella and Peta

[...]

Seraphim

[...]

4nxi3ty

[...]

Hinduragi

He says 5, but there are actually six because of the 1-in-3 thing. Bella, Seraphim, and Hindu are on this list. AGar and Tammy were his big scumreads.

Town:
Flash
Magister Ludi
MagnaofIllusion
Nuwen
RedCoyote

Scum:
AGar
Seraphim
Shinori
Shmugen

Me, Flash, Shmugen, and Seraphim stick out on this list.

Ludi, Hinduragi, 4nxi3ty, MoI, Flash, petapan all town.

Flash and Hindu on this list.

AGar and Nuwen need to die. Possibly also RC, MattP and Minimum.

Me, Tammy, and Minimum are here.

---

So what does this all mean? Well, I still see things that consistently point me to Seraphim, but there seems to be a growing amount of resistance to lynching him today for whatever reason. Based on what I've read today, my next choice would be Flash. Quilford's list especially looks kind of bad.

It should also be noted that SoO is conspicuously missing from every Night-aligned player's post history. He just appears very few times throughout the game. All of his slick talking as of late is nice, but there's something to be said for him playing it very low key.

[RedCoyote]

Flash, I was just pointing out all the time the remaining players came up in on these lists that Night-aligned players have made. You come up more often than anyone else. Although I forgot to include Gamma's name on that specific one (I forgot he replaced ML). Generally scum don't load their entire list (regardless whether it's scum or town) with townies.

SoO, what I mean to say is that you've been actively lurking up until this point. Now that the heat is finally being turned up on you a bit, you're showing more spunk. I get nervous when people alter there post style mid-game.

[RedCoyote]

Could Commexo use the key?

I never really understood why the Seraphim wagon was abandoned when we had him virtually strung up. We have a lot of overthinking going on, imo.

[RedCoyote]

Goodness gracious. Mina, look, I don't know what your problem with me is, but I can assure you that you're barking up the wrong tree. Also, do you dismiss this key thing entirely even after Quilford's flip?

[RedCoyote]

Minimum, I was referring to the fact that you were consistently trying to get people to lynch me instead of Seraphim. Even at the last second you were pushing Seraphim as town.

Tammy, I think that's a good point on Bella. I'm curious to hear that as well.

Shmug, any particular reason you are holding onto the key? Do you think it can help us at all at this point?

Vote: Flash

There's something suspicious about Quilford and Tierce putting him their big list of townies when we've seen town flips from all the rest. Also the fact that Minimum has some non-budging townread on them gives me the willies. I've said since D2 that I strongly doubted Tammy as Night-aligned. Also, there was certainly scum on the MoI lynch. That was easy as hell for them. Granted, I did hammer it, so it implicates me. Flash was a hard and fast supporter of the lynch from the getgo. Still, I think Flash, Minimum, Bella, and me should all take some heat for that one given the fact that. Me, Flash, and Minimum were all off the Quilford wagon. This could mean that the last Night-aligned player is in this group. I mean, that's what I think anyways. Every sign points me to Flash here. Minimum, maybe, but definitely Flash gets my vote right now.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: There's something suspicious about Quilford and Tierce putting him

on[/] their big

lists

of townies when we've seen town flips from all the rest.

That sentence was all messed up.

[RedCoyote]

Ugh.

EBWOP: There's something suspicious about Quilford and Tierce putting him

on

their big

lists

of townies when we've seen town flips from all the rest.

[RedCoyote]

I found another one.

EBWOP: Still, I think Flash, Minimum, Bella, and me should all take some heat for that one given the fact that

MoI was an easy lynch

.

Sorry. I'm just kind of frustrated and rushing it. I haven't been able to scumhunt very well in this game. Minimum's constant critiques of my play have also emasculated me somewhat. I'm not trying to garner sympathy, that's just my actual mindset. When I flub up on obvious stuff like the amount of scum remaining and peta's claim. I even remember seeing that claim, forgetting about it, and going all out against him. Ever since that point I've kind of felt depressed and humiliated about the shoddy work I've been doing.

[RedCoyote]

Not really?

• I...kind of think that Seraphim is town, now, and that since there has to be at least one scum outside of Red Coyote and Seraphim,

  minimum

  (no pun intended), it's probably Shmugen by PoE. (Aside from the fact that I don't think that two BPs are likely even with the SK win condition, I'm not fond of his play at all today--it just makes my gut itch. It feels like he's appealing to fear by consistently harping on the key, has shallow reads, seems concerned with self-preservation, and keeps pushing us to lynch one of RC/Seraphim when on the contrary, we know one of them HAS to be innocent.) But CES and I have disagreed on most of our reads this day phase--for example, I stopped suspecting Seraphim almost the moment he stopped trusting him.
  

Minimum's constant critiques of my play have also emasculated me somewhat.

Don't think I've criticized you all that much in recent Days? (Except just now.) If you're bothered by my constant and neverending suspicion of you, that's fine but that really doesn't work that well if you're town. Maybe you should try confessing?

Heh. I beg to differ. I feed on constant and neverending suspicion as scum.

[RedCoyote]

Me having a non-budging town read on them just means I'm cool.

I'm sure Flash will put that on your gravestone when he's through with us.

[RedCoyote]

Yeah, Shmugen did force SoO to out. He didn't pass the key on (although I'm still unsure if this does anything).

Still, I don't know. It seems like the key would do

something

for the Commexo, wouldn't it?

[RedCoyote]

The me and you both as sk/mafia point is just so absurd. I think its more likely that one of us is mafia/sk and fooled the other than that we both thought we could fool the other long enough that we actually got to the point of MAD where we needed each other. (and I think the chance that you are mafia is exactly 0, sk is non 0 I guess, but not by much)

I hope you're not referring to me. I'm not particularly suspicious of Minimum.

I absolutely think one of y'all are scum though. I see you as more likely to be either of the alignments.

[RedCoyote]

This is blatant dirt spreading, and about something that is confirmed to not be the case. Hindu explicitly said that in his PM it said the key did nothing for commexo.

Meh. I think I asked this before and no one ever answered me.

Additionally, I'm trying to figure the game out. SoO is confirmed. I've felt pretty good about Tammy and Bella. I know I'm town. I don't think we can test Shmu's power at this point. So, you know, that leaves little options.

[RedCoyote]

I don't get the point of even being able to pass it then. The Night-aligned role that could use it died. I mean, does it do nothing for Day-aligned players either? If so, why didn't Hindu just hold onto it? I feel like I'm missing something important about this mechanic.

[RedCoyote]

Oh, wait, so if the scum kill the keyholder, they get it?

[RedCoyote]

Minimum, you were the one that was very vocal about the fact that peta's block was what stopped the scum, not the Scattamun block. You cannot turn around and use that against me now just because Seraphim flipped town. You think I forgot about what you said on the issue?

In any case, Flash is the play here, I think. The only argument for his innocence when I can draw clear, obvious connections between both Tierce and Quilford is that "he's too obvtown to be scum"? Nah, I don't buy it. I've always hated those sorts of arguments anyways. I never let a player or relationship influence my game. chamber and Nexus are both nice guys that can play well, that doesn't necessarily mean they won't draw an anti-town alignment every once and a while. Thus, sometimes it's imperative to look past the buddy-buddy mindset and open your mind a bit to the idea that they may be playing so "obvtown" because they're scum. Lest we forget, it was Flash that was putting the heat on Gamma after his claim. It was Flash that was hot in the biscuit to get MoI killed off. It was Flash that "knew" MoI's 1-in-3 was a lie. So, you know, you do the math. All these things are townie? I don't buy it.

Flash should be wagonned today. The only other potential move would be Shmug. At least Shmug should explain how he used his power last night. I'm totally confused about that.

SoO, Tammy, and Bella need to be talking more as well. Mina has been trying to railroad me pretty much since the beginning of this game, so I don't think this back-and-forth is anything new. There are more people in this game than just me, you, Shmug, and Flash.

Also, out of curiousity, are y'all both in agreement in regards to me, Minimum? It seems like Mina is making a majority of the posts. I already know Mina is crazy about me and has been since D1. Does CES concur with Flash as "obvtown" and me as "obvscum"?

[RedCoyote]

Oh, okay. So flip the players then. CES has the crush on me. What does Mina think? I assumed it was the other way around because your posts are usually so much shorter, CES.

Also you can criticize me all you want. Lord knows I've been your punching bag for most of the game. That doesn't change the fact that you guys are on the record as Flash's buddy. I have to bring it up. If I can't get you guys to consider what's right in front of you, hopefully the other players will notice it.

The scum incentive for putting heat on Gamma is to give his results a lack of creditability. That whole nonsensical argument about transcendent powers? You want to talk misdirection, boy, there you go. MoI brought his lynch on himself, no doubt about it, but are you going to tell me scum weren't high fiving over that (well, I guess they couldn't since all but one is dead, but you get the idea)? There

was

scum on that wagon, Minimum. I'll stake anything on it. Scum want to be seen as right and considerate. Maybe Flash predicting MoI's lie gave him credit in your eyes? It undoubtedly did since, after all, he's so "obvtown" in everything he does.

You can laugh all you want, but don't be too dismissive. Because I do know one thing about this game that you don't. I am town and two other people here aren't. So if I do get lynched today, then y'all better have some thoughts on the rest of the players.

[RedCoyote]

What difference does it make if we hit Commexo or Night first? I don't understand.

[RedCoyote]

I see. That makes sense.

Well, okay then. If I had to guess at the most likely Commexo, it would probably be Shmug. I think Flash is a valid candidate, but I think he's more likely to be Night than Commexo.

Unvote

;

vote: Shmugen

[RedCoyote]

Can we lynch the guy now who's pretending that "he's too obvtown to be scum" is something you can reject as an argument?

And tell me again how me disagreeing with you politically is a scumtell...? Perhaps you can take me to Mafia Discussion on this one, but we're not going to get past agreeing to disagree in this game, let me tell you.

I mean, I can say anyone is obvtown that I want to. It doesn't necessarily make it so in your eyes.

---

Also, I guess my choice is between one town read or another town read...fabulous.

So Bella is both your biggest Commexo and Night scumread?

Although, red coyote I'm a little confused on your confusion of the comexo situation. Yesterday, minimum posted the win condition and I asked about it and gamma clarified. I again talked about it in my first post today that ou referenced, where I talked about how town could potentially lose if comexo was alive and survived tomorrow so I'm lost at how you didn't know this.

Well, it's pretty par for the course given the other mistakes I've made in this game. And I didn't really read your gigantic opening post so much as I did agree with your ultimate conclusion that Bella should explain herself.

---

(His buddy thing is also weird given that he didn't even know it was me.)

I'm not trying to buddy to one head and dismiss the other. That would be kind of redundant. The only thing I wanted to know was whether there was a hydra disagreement on me. Especially given the fact that I know at least one of y'all has been reluctantly trying to move away from voting me on at least two occasions in this game. It would be nice to bring that sentiment back out to help lynch the strongest candidate for Commexo here today.

[RedCoyote]

What have we played, like, one game together, Shmu?

Not claiming unless someone not voting me asks me to.

---

But you do have to accept that being obvtown makes someone unlikely to be scum.

Nope, because your definition is clearly subjective. SoO is obvtown... and that's about it. I mean, goodness, how many last words do you think came from the mouths of townies in lylo saying that they're going to vote X because Y is "obvtown"? And that's not even taking into consideration the caliber of player chamber is (and I'm sure Nexus is as well, I just have less (if any) experience with him).

Not what I meant. You were suggesting that my read of Flash was based in part on personal stuff ("buddy buddy mindset") which is just sort of out there if it's Mina-Chamber/Nexus as opposed to CES-chamber.

I don't know which one of y'all likes/dislikes Flash, and I don't really care, frankly. I'm saying that one or both of y'all are probably letting your relationship with Flash influence that read.

[RedCoyote]

Yeah, actually, I checked. Just the one. That's kind of an unfair game to meta me with, imo. Polite Mafia was so out there in terms of post restrictions that it hardly makes for decent comparisons.

[RedCoyote]

Biphasic night, cold-war-spy inspired game. Micro pilot test, Large Theme after if it works. I think I'm most excited for this one.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ mafia.

Very interested in both of these!

I had a so-so time with this. Not so much because of the modding, but I just have trouble getting into games as a VT unless the day-to-day banter hits me just right. I addressed MoI in the dead QT. The only thing that really frustrated me was him not admitting the facade post-Gamma's claim. I just didn't see how he was playing to his win condition at that point.

Anyways, thanks a lot, Mod! gg everyone.