A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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*points at list of people to vote*
*spreads arms wide*-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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*begins reading the thread*
*has not sent in a vote yet*-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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*replaces out*
Anyways, I started reading Day 1, and got to page 8 and then said screw it, and jumped to the end of Day 1 and read Day 2. I may go back and read Day 1 someday, but today is not that day.
Let's start with my strong/obvious reads, shall we?
Town
Shinori:Unbelievably town; don't think anyone's disagreeing with me here. All the people who are like, "Why'd you say anything?" are dumb. All the people who are like, "You should say it now," are dumber. Like, seriously dumb. No, seriously, strongest town read ever, even stronger than Shadow.
Shadow:I've personally seen Shadow bus his buddy in multiball in the worst way imaginable (in Kingdom Hearts), so I know he's capable of doing it, but I was able to twig him as scum trivially easy there, and I'm not getting the same read from him here. Also, figuring he learned from his experience and would not be eager to repeat it.
Zdenek:God, I loved playing against him in War in Heaven III when I was scum and he was town, and he managed to just rub everybody the wrong way, and I see him doing it here. I do skip most of his posts, though, because my limit for quote-striping is about on par with a snail's limit for salt, but he's still town.
Dolorous Edd:Probably the only person who posts walls who I actually have any incentive to read (well, sometimes). Not much meta-experience with Ser Arthur Dayne, but At the very least, whilst reading, I come up with an opinion, and then a few posts later find that he's posted it, which is good enough for me (very low bar).
Plessiezarus:Sort of like Dolorous Edd, but weaker. I can stomach most of their posts. Don't mind the hydra dissonance -- don't understand people getting upset about it.
Null
MagnaofIllusion:You think I'd be able to read him better with our hydra and all, but no. I'm applying my usual Magna-rule to him: Listen to him (as much as possible) until D4; if he's still alive, lynch him.
(Footnote: His posts read...nicer...to me in this game than in others that I've played in, but I can't tie that to an alignment tell one way or another.)
Regfan:If I die tonight, Reg is scum. Also, don't agree with his townread on Tierce (see below). But, if this is multiball, even if Regfan is scum he's going to be decent at finding the other team, so they'll inevitably shoot him. So, MagnaofIllusion-lite, as it were.
Saporerint:At the very least, the jump over the PM-posted-in-thread I don't buy at all, especially the "Why would town ever have any reason to post that?" that I see coming from Tierce and Regfan. I'm not really a believer in scumslips at the best of times, but the way things went -- *especially* Tierce's "That's an obv mispost from a QT" -- read to me like people trying to make hay that isn't there, which makes me think town. Slot hasn't done anything terribly townie, but I got to be me, so I'll settle for the null pile.
Benmage:Fuck Benmage.
Scumhunter:Fuck Scumhunter.
Feysal:I believe I have read Feysal as scum in literally every game that I've played with him[1], so I absolutely do not trust my current opinion of reading him as scum here.
([1] Super-secret-Feysal-towntell from Good vs Evil excepted, because I was reading him as scum up until that point.)
Scum
bvoigt:Due to (non-)reaction to Shadow's claim against him. Scum-giveup. Yeah, yeah, Captain Obvious, etc, but there you go.
Tyene Sand:Don't like the way Tierce jumps on things at all. Reads very much like scum trying to mudsling or sow suspicion. There was the bit with Feysal in the first few pages of D1, and then this with saporerint both make me go "no." Also, Regfan has some super townread on Tierce, which, AFAIK, proves my point.
Jal:Too many wall posts (though there are plenty guilty of that), but too defensive in his posts. It's not about finding scum, it's about proving to others that he's not scum.
(Footnote: I'm assuming Jal is a Westeros-er immigrant)
People who aren't in the list haven't made enough of an impression on me to have an opinion, though I was sorely tempted to put Tammy into the scum pile just to have something to do, but then I realized I'd develop another case of carpal tunnel from holding down the shift key. Given my insufficient number of strong scumreads, that's a little problematic, but whatever, I wasn't supposed to replace in until D3-ish anyways.
I'm sending in my jailkeep vote on one of my townreads listed above (hint: Shinori). Not going to vote bvoigt.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Tyrene Sand wrote:
I think Magua is town. While that post is heavily lacking, I can see the way he achieved some of the non-obvious reads. The main thing I dislike s the way some of his reads are connected without substance; going over his read on me, for example, you'd expect him to develop the Regfan line more, but you go back to Regfan and it's just an empty loop. However, I do understand how he's getting the read he has on me, and it's called Paranoia Mafia, where I was scum and was blatantly calling out town on not knowing their own role PMs. There's an issue here, Magua--in Paranoia, I was clearly not giving a damn about the players' motivations in doing Stupid Shit. Here I've been trying to reason them out and making up my mind about it.
The Paranoia Mafia reference is apt. It's the angle of your attacks. In Paranoia, you were all, "Town would never misread their PM like that," and pushed the wagon based on that, knowing full well that that was pretty much exactly what had actually happened. Here, in regards to Saporerint, you're all, "Town would never send that PM," and I am seeing it line up the same way.
As for Regfan: I'm not bothering to read Regfan. Not kidding about the MoI resemblance -- I'll lynch him if he's still around D4. Unless MoI is also still around D4, in which case he gets lynched first.
MagnaofIllusion wrote:In regards to the bolded … remind me again what recent game it was we were NOT Hydraing together in and we debated whether a scum-slip was valid and whoever it was flipped scum and I was right and all in your face about it. I’m being lazy but am pretty sure this actually happened and I’m not imagining it.
Captain Ajax in Scummies.
I'll happily repeat what I said there: He didn't "slip." He was scum, and he got attacked for something (changed read on Fonz IIRC), but those two facts are not cause/effect. D1 attacks are bullshit anyways (as a contra-example, I remember people crowing about your "slip" in ASOIAF, eg, but you were town).
MagnaofIllusion wrote:Would you not have assessed Snowstorm’s play as very similar (too defensive and not worried about finding scum)? Because at a gut level I’m not getting Jal-scum (yes, I am not really reading her that closely) and wonder if this is a “Westros import” symptom.
Can't *really* compare, as I haven't read Snowstorm in D1 and don't really care to at this point. But on a rough guess, Jal *feels* like a Westeros import, whereas Snowstorm seems like a new player (that is, new entirely, not new from somewhere else), so I would have different expectations.
Regfan wrote:Magua, explain to me why Shinori revealing whatever information he has now is dumb because I don't see it that way at all.
Really surprised to see you say this. I'll take it slow, so you can tell me where you fall off.
- Shinori's information is not a straight up guilty, else he would've outted it.
- If Shinori's information is a straight up innocent, he should not out it (it's not due to the questions he's been asking, but I'm just being complete here)
- So Shinori's information is of an imprecise form, either of a pseudo nature ("I roleblocked X and there was a missing kill", "I saved X and there was a missing kill," etc), or of the form "One of X, Y, Z is scum."
In all those cases, given that Shinori will be alive tomorrow, there's zero reason to out it today. Outting it doesn't help, but does give scum the ability to plan around the information (shoot/not shoot someone depending) because they have more information than we do so can make more use of whatever it is that Shinori knows. Especially given multiball, I do not want to do anything that might reduce the chance of crosskills.
As for reading you: I'll read you D4. Either I can go to the OP and look at the deadlist, or I'll say "Regfan is alive D4, scum." Easy peasy.
Benmage wrote:Magua, how do you not have me as the townest of the town?? You know Faraday hates me right?
So far, the two times I've been town with you, I've seen you govern scum in lylo, and counterclaim a cop as VT and get them lynched.
So I'm actually scared of the possibility that you might be town.
Jal wrote:I've said what I want to say about DCL scum. Those Stannis-aligned are few. There's a decent chance all Stannis scum were on his bandwagon at least at the very end given the a) Inevitability b) The vengeful mechanic c) He was only a goon. It really just comes down to the experience and skill of Stannis-aligned. Other than Edd's sorry-ass attempts to call DCL town, there weren't a lot of people really sticking out their necks to defend DCL. I'm going to guess at the very least lot of distancing was involved or non-mentioning when the votes started accumulating, and mainly by DCL himself.
This sort of generalization (Stannis are in this group) is not useful. Useful is saying who in that group you actually think is Stannis.
Jal wrote:Also, I'm not from westeros (the site).
Have you played mafia before mafiascum.net? If so, where/how long?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Let's see.
saporerint is gonna die, right after they claim. Ambivalent about them actually being scum, but my townread on Edd was strong to begin with, and is now so strong it punches through walls. Want to do this as soon as possible to get the flip.
Godhand I was super excited about because I thought it would reveal alignment at the end of the Day and the person would be protected this Night, but then I read Feysal's thing and reread and yeah. That makes it not really quite so good. Don't want to use it on someone scummy, because then you're putting off their lynch until D6 in the event they're actually scum. It could be used on someone townie so they can't be killed N3, which is nice but public and all. I want to use it on someone who I'm not confident in, but who I probably would not lynch in the next two Days regardless. Thinking about it, I really want to use it on Tierce so I can stop worrying about her.
@Regfan:Your hangup with flavor is terrible. It's either really his role, or it's a fakeclaim provided by Faraday/Seacore. Shit, son, Benmage was schooling you on how this works. kortul is the one I see asking the actually useful questions like "Why did you not investigate a claimed Frey?"
I guess a follow up question for Staeg is:Ninja'd.@Staeg:You say you investigated Regfan to keep the shitflingers off of him. What did you think being a "Frey" meant N1?
Mmmmmm. This would be a lot easier in my mind if Shinori hadn't been all "STAEG I HAVE INFO YOU'RE SCUM OH HERE IT IS LET ME TELL YOU EVERYTHING BEFORE YOU RESPOND." Seriously, in the future, just be like, "Staeg, claim" and then see what happens -- telling him what you know only lets him lie better if he's scum.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Hurt saporerint
VOTE: Staeg
I approve of Tierce copying my methodology.
I can also get behind Godhanding Plums Yo Mama.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Oh ffs
Hurt saporerint
[hurt[saporerint[/hurt]
[hurttillitdonthurtnomore]saporerint[/hurttillitdonthurtnomore]
HEAL: saporerint
HURT WITH A BLADE: saporerint
One of those should do it.
HURT: saporerint-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Easy mode is easy.
Thinking about it more, Godhand preference goes to Tierce, Feysal, Plums Yo Mama, Lyanna Stark (in approximately that order). These are good players who I still expect to be around D5 (not expecting them to be NKed or lynched) and who I would like a confirmation of one way or another.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Godhand: Plums Yo Mama
Moving Jal to Townieland because of his spat with Dolorous Edd. Moving Lyanna down towards scum. Still fine with a Staeg lynch for today.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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OH FOR FUCK'S SAKE
GODHAND: PLUM'SFARADAY'SYO MOAMA-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Zdenek stays town.
On the other hand, Minimum trying to paint Zdenek as scummy for hammering Staeg's lynch when there's been no talk or discussion about any alternative lynches, and especially with Minimum voting Staeg, is just posing for towncred.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Alright. Actually playing and invested time.
Re: Me complaining about Minimum (and Tammy and kortul) complaining about lynching Staeg yesterday. Day had gone on five days, and at the end of that, it was really only "Let's wait until we've godhanded someone until we lynch" and during that time, nobody was going, "Hey, let's maybe lynch someone other than Staeg."
Minimum was voting to lynch Staeg. kortul and Tammy had both not placed a vote at all during the Day. So this "omg quicklynch but I wanted the Day to go on longer" is bullshit, and it reads like high posturing. Saying, essentially, "You lynched Staeg 5 days in? That's soscummy!"
God, that shit riles my nerves. Scum are more likely to be on the front of the wagon than on the back of the wagon precisely because of that sort of thinking. Will get back to that later.
Anyways.
Town
Plum's Yo Mamma (Nacho/Plum)- Well, maybe not Townie McTownerson, but seeing as they're Godhanded, pretty much zero interest in considering them anything but town, because that'll sort itself out right quickly real soon like.
Shinori- So I'm treading carefully with my "dumb is town" reads with saporerint, but, again, really not seeing Shinori's scum motivation for anything that he's done. He wasn't under pressure when he claimed, he's not pushing to save or kill anyone, and, pretty much most importantly to me, even if he is scum he's made himself a target to the other scumteam. Very reminiscent of, eg, UberNinja's play in Mafia Behind the Maiden. Reads as confused town, not conniving scum.
Jal- Revised reading heavily townwards. Scum do not, as a rule, go after what is essentially a confirmed town, painting a big ol' target on their back while everyone else stands around and says, "Look at what that Jal is doing, that's soscummy!" Scum know Staeg's not on their team, no need to stir up trouble or attract notice, just go along with things and take care of Edd that Night. Jal does pretty much zero of these things. Newbie scum is like this but twice as much so.
Zdenek- Continue to maintain townread. Super paranoid reads town.
Regfan- Kind of sneaking him onto my townlist. I'm very much self-aware that my townread on Regfan is partly due to him having a townread on me, and that Regfan knows enough to push my buttons, but 1) Regfan-scum gets a little thrill for getting me mislynched, and 2) now that Magna is dead Regfan is likely next so whatever's fair. My only real worry, Regfan-wise, is that he's some bulletproof scum role, so, if you get down to 5 people or so, Regfan's still alive, and there's been some kills missing down the road, lynch his ass.
Lyanna Stark (Tammy)- Entirely a gut read, based almost entirely on interactions with Benmage in the last two pages. Specifically seems like the way I originally reacted to Benmage, neither "Oh, that's cute, /ignore" nor "I'm going to nail your ass to the wall, scum," but more of a "What the fuck are you doing?" Sounded better in my head, I suppose.
Null
Benmage- Fuck Benmage. I understand where Tammy's coming from in their interaction today so far, but there's pretty much literally no action, no matter how anti-town, that I'm willing to put past Benmage-town, and I really have no idea how to even read Benmage-scum.
BBmolla- His AtE ramblings annoy the ever loving bejeezus out of me, but I saw him do it in Revolution Mafia, where it annoyed the every loving bejeezus out of me as well, but he turned up town. So. Gut-read him as scum there, was wrong, indecisive here.
Feysal- Same as BBmolla. Gutread as scum, gutread has consistently been wrong before so is being ignored.
Pandora (Shadoweh/Quilford)- Pops in once every few days to make a small post, does nothing else. Very little to read. Surprised to see them listed as a townread so frequently.
Mastermind of Sin- It's Day 3, and I literally have zero impression on MoS. Worrisome, but going through his ISO in brief shows similar reads to mine, so, pass for now.
4nxi3ty- Not seeing mockingjaye hate. ISO is just big huge walls which make my head hurt, but seems to be little actual crunch in them. None of the reads are particularly out there one way or another, which is a little scummy, but meh -- D1 scumread list (Shadow, Minimum, Edd) is terribad, but does get revised going into D2, which makes the whole thing seem more legitimate.
Scum
Scumhunter- Fuck Scumhunter. Agree with Regfan that Scumhunter-town would be contributing more, so the more lurkalicious he is the more likely he is to be scum.
kortul- Slipped to a scumread more or less by default. His posting in a "hands off" style is probably null for him, metawise, but this is Day 4 and it's a continuation of asking questions without taking positions, notes on alignment-null topics such as the Day mechanics without reads, sort of thing. His posts read to me as just so neutral on everything. Not a strong scumread, but a scumread nonetheless.
Tyene Sand (Tierce)- I'm not giving this one up. Distant, disengaged, not what I expect to see from Tierce-town. Revised slightly upwards because Tierce did jump all over saporerint's slip which was actually a slip, but this being multiball and Tierce being no stranger to bussing doesn't make me actually that much more trusting.
Minimum (Mina/CES)- Not living up to expectations. Not many expectations coming from CES, to be perfectly honest, but I do expect more from Mina that I'm not seeing here (this reasoning is very similar to my Tierce-scum read, but a little more pronounced in this case).
La la la.
VOTE: Scumhunter-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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In post 2306, Benmage wrote:Magua, Scumhunter replaced Starbuck.... Try again.
And?
Your whole *fuck benmage* reads fake.
If only.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Regfan wrote:Looking forward to Shinoris explanation behind his thought process the past two days and what input his hydra partner had in it.
Wait, what? Shinori's a hydra?
Mmmm, I see, aborted attempt. Mmmmmm.
Regfan wrote:Magua, have you gone back and read through all of D1 now?
No, but I'll read through for mockingjaye's connections tomorrow.
Explain Pandora being obvtown, please.
Mastermind of Sin wrote:This confuses me, since the most prominent read I have that is still alive is on Minimum, who I think is town. I'd think that would be fairly obvious from even a cursory read through my ISO.
I also think Tierce is probably town (don't think scum would have questioned the mason kills so strongly...just reads weird from anything but a town perspective), but that read was probably less obvious.
So...which reads exactly do you think we agree on?
Rereading your ISO, I've found that what I really agree with are your reads on players, but your stances on things, mechanics or setup-wise. That is, your read of the mason deaths in 1631/1684, your response to bvoigt in 1924, your godhand list, etc.
Your town-read on BBmolla being an exception, a read on a player that I do agree with. Yes, I had completely skipped that you had a townread on Minimum.
So,@Mastermind of Sin:Why do you have a townread on Minimum?
Overall impression is still highly blah. You're quick to jump on bvoigt and saporerint, so -Aegon points, but everything else is just so null.
@Benmage:Still would like to know why Starbuck was obvtown to you. If it's for the self-choose, not buying that.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Burden of proficiency is exactly what it is that I'm doing with you and Minimum. However, it's far from stupid. Especially since I know you're as big a believer in meta as I am.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Shinori's not scum. There's really zero scum motivation for Shinori-scum to do anything that Shinori's done, so that has to be attributable to bad play and not scum intent.
Also, for double bonus points, if Shinori *is* scum then Shinori's going to get shot by the other scumteam because he's an investigative role. If Shinori is bulletproof scum, then we have missing kills, which will be great. But that's all kind of irrelevant, because Shinori is just a bad player, but not scum. Pandora's case is effectively, "Shinori's play doesn't make sense as town or scum" and then divines from this that Shinori's scum. No.
Scumhunter is just trolling at this point. But, this isn't Day 1, it's Day 4. Totally fine with my vote on him. Regfan should jump on board.-
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In post 2423, Lyanna Stark wrote:WHY IS MAGUA LURKING???
Because I've yet to engage in some emotional back-and-forth that has me F5'ing the page every minute.
Other stuff:
Pine replacing Jal is doubleplusgood.
Zdenek-townread is increased.
kortul-scumread is increased. Started off with a good question to MoS, but that's just where it stays. Question to MoS, question to Shinori. No reactions, no reads, no responses to analyze. But he's voting Scumhunter, so, it's all good.
Mastermind of Sin's stuff smells like busywork. Tammy already noted the bussing-bias with bvoigt. On the one hand, there's the "He posted his information even though it puts him in a scummy light" (from the Stannis results); on the other hand, there's the "He posted his information even though it puts him in a scummy light, and yet doesn't seem to care that his assumptions might be wrong." It seems like the sort of thing I like to do as scum -- collect data and present it in a framework that suits my purposes (Zdenek saw me do this in War in Heaven III). It looks impressive and frames the conversation.
Despite this, Scumhunter still needs some death.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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Hey. Scumhunter.
Hey.
Hey.
Scumhunter.
Hey.
I'm lynching you.
Hey.
Thought you should know.
Scumhunter wrote:Well enjoy losing then. Lynching someone because they "deserve" it for not being active/helpful or whatever is retarded. I thought the point was to lynch to scum? There are a lot more useless people in the world than there are scumlords.
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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In post 2489, Minimum wrote:Stop ignoring me, Magua.
The only thing I see from you is that you don't like that I'm not seeing Mina-town from your slot, and that you (unsurprisingly) think using a burden of proficiency argument on you is bunk.
Consider me disagreeing.
In post 2491, Scumhunter wrote:Magua, you say I'm trolling, but nay, you sir, are the one trolololing. A pity.
Relevant.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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In post 2494, Minimum wrote:Why is it unsurprising that I don't think your basic argument would ever apply to Mina? Don't think you have any sort of meaningful Minameta that would suggest she'd be less cool as scum either and and yet you're telling me that you don't find it the least bit relevant that I'm claiming it manifestly isn't true?
Well, see, the thing is, I'm calling you scum. You saying, in effect, "You're wrong, we're not scum," is hardly game-changing.
So let's play a useful game. Do you think Scumhunter is scum?
Or, in a more generalized form, aside from 4nxiety, name three other scumreads.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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In post 2495, Magua wrote:So let's play a useful game. Do you think Scumhunter is scum?
Or, in a more generalized form, aside from 4nxiety, name three other scumreads.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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In post 2432, 4nxi3ty wrote:what is your take on nacho's recent post?
Nacho thinks that Scumhunter is town and Minimum is town.
Nacho's wrong.
Not giving too much worry about whether this is Nacho being wrong because he's blind, or Nacho being wrong because he's scum, because we'll find out at the end of the Day tomorrow. If Day 6 starts with a confirmed town Nacho, then I'll start paying attention to what he's saying. 'Till then, not so much.
In post 2507, Minimum wrote:Magua, still think Scumbuck is town. Aside from anxijay, Jal and MoS are scum reads. Now respond to the actual things I've been saying.
The "things you've said" are that you don't think I should have a scumread on you. I do. There's really not much else to respond with. I'm certainly not expecting to convince you you're scum, and you're not going to convince me with what is essentially "lol ur wrong lrn2play".
In post 2512, Zdenek wrote:Also, I've been thinking about how that godhand happened, mainly because every time I think abut the end of day one I want to lynch benmage for defending scum and really wish that he was godhanded. Anyway, he was the most agressive pusher of plum, which might indicate that he's scum trying to avoid being flipped. Aside from that once w start getting flips from the people those wagons were on, they could be useful. At the moment, not so much I think.
The thing is, Benmage is a terrible Godhand target because even if he's confirmed town, he's trouble. Plum/Nacho is a good Godhand target because if they're confirmed town, scum'll have to kill them.
There is no way I would've gone for a Benmage godhanding.
Shinori wrote:Kortul what about the fact that I saw tierce doing nothing? I know she could be a scum passive role but chances are more likely to have an active role.
Need to watch those assumptions.
DCLXVI (Davos Seaworth,Goonand a member of the Stannis Faction) was Chosen Day 1, Died Night 1.
bvoigt (Jon Connington,Goonand a member of the Aegon Faction) was Lynched Day 2.
Saporerint (Varys, *InformedGoonand member of the Aegon Faction) lost the trial by combat on Day 3.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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In post 2516, Tyene Sand wrote:Magua, you seem to have ignored the post in which I showed your reasoning on me boils down to nothing. In addition, you seem to be using the Goon number to assume that the majority (or a good share) of scum alive will have an active role/would have killed when I was tracked nowhere. I understand not taking tracker negatives as proof of alignment, but this doesn't seem to match the core of your reasoning. Are you suggesting I'm a goon who didn't act?
My thinking about you being a goon who didn't act is muddled. I'm shelving it for the time being.
My comment at Shinori was that, given all three scumflips so far have been goons, assuming that the mafia are more likely to be PRs is a bad assumption.-
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In post 2522, BBmolla wrote:I'm just gonna make a post every time I look at this thread.
Not lynching Scumhunter before lynching some others.
With four days remaining, you need to start pushing if you actually want someone besides Scumhunter lynched.-
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Mastermind of Sin's replace out is either a towntell or a nulltell, but is certainly not a scumtell. I was reading it as a towntell (replace out due to actual anger at being misrepresented). Adjusting slightly after Zdenek saying he did this as scum in Consulmaker III, but I'm still not seeing it as a scumtell -- I'm seeing it as something that MoS does as an emotional response, making it a nulltell.
My vote on Scumhunter was a pressure vote, and he failed it (the only reaction was his OMGUS vote on me). I share with Scumhunter an aversion to reading games that I replace into, but I can pick up from where I replaced in without problem. So can Scumhunter. And he utterly failed to do that here.
More to the point, meta-wise, I expect Scumhunter-town would've started trolling for reactions, pushing a case on Regfan or I for the lulz.
Continue to have a scumread on this slot. Timeater replacing hasn't really changed anything. Immediate claim in first post just screams of having ISOd his predecessor, but then he denies having done that.
Tierce wrote:Stop looking at the attitude and look at the alignment. It doesn't make sense as scum.
It's more the complete lack of attachment at all.
Plum's 2546 is the only thing that I've really read from the Plums Yo Mamma slot that I actually agree with. I really don't like pretty much everything else that comes out of that slot.
Oh, no, I am gaining a townread on 4nxiety, so I agree with Plum/Nacho on that one as well. But the amount of force going into the Feysal lynch from this slot seems out of nowhere. What really gets me is that a lot of the posting references Feysal's posts previously, like Plum+Nacho have done their homework, but then they have later posts (eg, the back and forth with Regfan) where something is pointed out to them that makes it look like their original posts were actually just skims.
Shinori wrote:I'm actually thinking I'd prefer a feysal lynch instead of a scumhunter lynch at the moment. I'm kind of okay with either of them though.
Eddard Stark wrote:Not Voting (2):Shinori, Pine
AurorusVox wrote:Cursory search of the thread shows scum have fakeclaims
Unvote: timeater
Vote: Feysal
Put this into context for me. The only people to have nameclaimed are timeater and Shinori. You say "scum have fakeclaims", but then unvote a person who claimed. There seems to be active dissonance between what you said and what you did.
Re: Pine, he doesn't like to play scum and it shows, but I've never seen him give up a slot just because it's scum (eg, his replace into a scumslot in AFFC. He was terrible, but he did it and didn't flake out). I read his replace out as alignment-null, and still have an overall townread of the slot from Jal.
Really, want timeater lynched. #1 super top pick.
Would settle for AurorusVox lynch.
Feysal lynch beats no lynch, but that's about it.-
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In post 2664, Plums Yo Mamma wrote:Could you point out the pointing out for me?
In this hydra, Plum is the thorough one and I am the passionate one, so it's entirely possible that I have missed things here and there but I feel like I've done the Feysal thing enough to not miss much.
So upon actually rereading your posts, I admit that I was wrong. I misread things that you were saying, which is half of what's been rubbing me the wrong way about them.
For instance, the big one I had noted down was 2568
Plums Yo Mamma wrote:
This is a problem. The fact that she fits with both scumteams probably means she doesn't belong to either.
This goes for you too, Mossy.
And then I'd noted down your 2591:
Plums Yo Mamma wrote:
Mos I see one pretty good possibility for scum in both of these groups.
And I know you wanna vote them.
But I'm not saying who it is because it's a secret.
(hint: Feysal)
Because I thought you were trying to have your cake and eat it, too, but rereading shows that I misinterpreted what you meant by "these groups" (I read it as "groups of scum" rather than "groups of voters").
Similarly in your exchange with Regfan, I was reading tone-of-voice stuff wrong and so getting the wrong assumptions from it.
Repondering what this means to me. Much more likely that Plum+Nacho are town. More amenable to Feysal-death.
Annoyed that there's been six pages since yesterday.
Quick review from my skim:
Zdenek v Thor makes Zdenek seem townier and Thor seem scummier. Especially given:
Thor665 wrote:I'll still be amused to see anyone voting me actually explain how I'm scummy in any way at all.
God, I hate that shit.
Tammy is like 98.9% town.
Reorganizing my preferred lynches slightly to be timeater lynch > Feysal lynch > Thor lynch.-
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There was no case to begin with on you. There was a case on your slot. You knew this, but still posted "But why am *I* scummy?"-
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That's because your back and forth with Zdenek reads as incredibly fake. "Vote permalocked." It's like it's trying to jump up and down and scream "I'm a reaction test! Isn't that townie of me?"-
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God, this game.
Really sad at what happened to the Timeater wagon, because of Tim-spam.-
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In post 2943, Minimum wrote:Magua
I'd consider it if the deadline were more than 4 hours away. Thor wagon isn't happening in the next 4 hours. Agree that the case on Feysal isn't that strong, but Feysal lynch is way above no lynch at this point.-
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<_<
>_>
That should've been a quote of all of CES' post, obv.-
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In post 2956, Minimum wrote:I would have felt a lot better about you if you'd stuck to your guns and said that you thought the case on Feysal is stronger for X reasons...considering you'd ranked him as more suspicious than Thor before. You voted Feysal when both wagons were very viable. Clearly deadline isn't the reason your vote is where it is.
Do elaborate what you think my reason for taking my vote off of Timeater is, then. Don't be coy.
As for Thor: Five more votes would not have appeared in four hours. Non-starter.-
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Thor was at 3 of 9 votes. I would've been 4. 5 more votes would not have appeared in four hours is the sum and totality of why I did not vote Thor.-
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In post 2965, Minimum wrote:In post 2963, Magua wrote:Thor was at 3 of 9 votes. I would've been 4. 5 more votes would not have appeared in four hours is the sum and totality of why I did not vote Thor.
That was not the case when you voted for Feysal originally though. Why didn't you vote for Thor then?
Ha.
I wrote a whole screed about you not reading the same thread as everyone else and making shit up. Then I reviewed the last few pages, and realized I had voted Feysal last night, not this morning like I thought. My bad. (It was a busy night.)
I (probably) voted Feysal over Thor last night because I'm more convinced that Feysal is scum than Thor is scum (still nursing my Jal-townread) and the same general reason: Doubt that there'd be enough votes to get there by deadline.-
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Thank God Benmage got NKed.
Shinori outting his result is pretty much a death sentence on whoever he outs it on. Given pretty confirmed obvtown didn't get protected earlier (Shadow1psc, Dolorous Edd), it seems like holding up a big target -- regardless of whether they're town or scum, at least one scumteam will have an incentive to kill them.
So I'd say if Shinori has a townread on this person, no, don't say a damn thing. If you have a scumread on this person, yeah, go ahead and out them.
Feysal stuff: Flip never changed as far as I can remember. Going to reread Tierce/Feysal interactions either tonight or tomorrow, but off the cuff response is that Tierce would not bus someone who could perform a kill and who she could talk to in a scum QT with someone who couldn't kill and talk with, and that if she had known that Feysal was a traitor, she would've recruited him, and then he would've flipped as actual Stannis mafia instead of a Stannis traitor. (It is possible that Tierce could be another traitor herself, though.)
VOTE: Timeater-
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In post 3006, Regfan wrote:Will get to everything else about this game in 12-24 hours including explaining why Tierce isn't Stannis-Scum but two quick things. First Magua, Shinori said investigative role, not protective role, I think another investigative role for town is unlikely (I'd consider his role and Staegs as investigative) and given all the goon flips can see a scum rolecop sort of role being out there, think outting it is probably vital and needed (Also the 'out it if it's not on a town-read comment I don't follow since why would he investigate a town-read).
His role and Staeg's role are both investigative, but neither are particularly strong (given the non-Mason Frey flips either Staeg's was useless except as a possible fakeclaim buster or all Freys are Town and so Staeg was a very, very limited Cop), but this is a 28 player game. AFFC had at least two investigative roles (I was a Tracker and hasdgfas was Weak Doctor) both of which are stronger than what we're seeing here and that was with 4 less players. ASoS had one weaker investigative role (Voyeur) and one stronger (Rolecop), plus a JOAT who probably had some investigative ability, again at 24 players.
"lolscumrolecop" already killed Staeg. Not anxious to possibly repeat. Don't know how or why Shinori is picking his targets, so better safe than sorry.-
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Regfan wrote:Neither AFFC and ASoS had masons though and from what it looks like scum have less power in this then in the other two games. Not just that though but with a motivator in the game I'd say it's super unlikely for us to have a strong investigative role that can potentially get two investigations in a night.
ASoS had the brothers, which were a triangle confirmation. AFFC had Mina's role, an Innocent Child. And still those two games had stronger investigative roles than here.
Pretty certain that Tammy's motivator did something other than "You can action twice" because otherwise there's really no reason she wouldn't've used it on Shadow1psc N1.
Regfan wrote:Magua, explain to me how you don't and I want a summary of your updated reads.
I definitely do not see Timeater-town in the Timeater/Tammy interactions.
He comes in, scraps it up with Tammy, jumps on Feysal's wagon, continues to scrap with Tammy. The end. My read on his posting is that it starts off with predetermined force and energy ("Lyanna is scum!", but, saw him do this in MBtM), but as it goes on it's lazier, more questions, less anything besides his shift in stance to "Feysal is scum!")
Aggressiveness is a nulltell for Timeater, but it's what he's (not) doing with that aggressiveness that keeps him in my scumlist. Also, replaced Scumhunter.
Skimminglooking back over the choosing of DCLXVI, pretty confident that Feysal did not his teammates at least during Day 1, because there is no way, no how that Feyal, a traitor who cannot kill, and a player who does not like to play scum, chooses someone he knows is on his team and *can* kill over himself. That is, from Feysal-traitor-who-knows-his-teammates POV, it is better for him to be chosen and kill someone since a) he knows who all the Stannis are, b) he is less valuable to the case, c) he doesn't like playing scum anyway.
But Feysal jumps his choose vote from greenknight to DCL without a problem.
Best working theory is that Feysal could Neighborize into the Stannis faction (role name: "Specific Neighbouriserto theStannis Faction"), and that him being "Informed" was in relation to some person or persons he knew weren't Stannis.
Also pretty certain that Stannis didn't know about Feysal's role, because that's how traitors work.
The best work I've seen so far in approaching this is kortul looking for the crumbs in conversation, which makes sense if Stannis knew that there was a traitor.
Other stuff.
Feysal giving Regfan his vote almost certainly means that Feysal doesn't think Regfan is actually on his team. If there's one thing I've learned from the Last Will games its that scum are incredibly loathe to do that sort of thing even if its permanent, and here for a single vote for a single Day....nah.
Dislike the clearing of BBmolla from the message. Regfan, eg, clears BBmolla as Stannis ("Would Stannis have information on Aegon scumteam?") but then clears him as Aegon because why would Aegon out that information -- with Feysal-traitor having already flipped being a perfect reason for why Aegon would out that information (which would be more indicative of BBmolla-traitor, but still).
Continue to be super glad that Benmage is dead.
I really like what I've read from kortul involving looking for connections from Feysal via crumbs in conversation. Do not believe in kortul-Stannis. kortul-Aegon still a possibility.
Continue to be sad at Tierce. Posts reek all over of defensiveness, coupled with zero scumreads. You can say, "Magua, this is multiball, even scum should have legitimate scumreads so that has to be null," but it's like Tierce is actively trying to appear as a non-threat to avoid NK and I don't like that one bit.
Upon continued reflection, still not really interested in lynching 4nxiety today, and not interested in lynching Thor if he can actually post some useful content that's not reaction-testing shit.-
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@Shinori, do you think the person you have a result on is scum or town?
Don't care what you think other people think. Care about your read.-
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Although I approve of your investigation choice, why the fuck did you claim? No votes on you, no votes on Regfan. Not seeing the motivation.
@Pandora:Do you think that Feysal knew his partners? If so, why did he choose DCLXVI over himself D1? If he didn't know his partners, why are you clearing Timeater as not-Stannis?-
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In post 3070, Tyene Sand wrote:Are the hot desert winds frying your brains?
Yes, because I thought we were in King's Landing or some shit, not Dorne.
I asked *why* he claimed.-
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In post 3069, Magua wrote:
@Pandora:Do you think that Feysal knew his partners? If so, why did he choose DCLXVI over himself D1? If he didn't know his partners, why are you clearing Timeater as not-Stannis?-
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Mass claim is a terrible idea.
There's 15 people, and we're at least 3 Days from lylo. Scum claim VT, mass claiming outs all town PRs, and then scum have a roadmap to kill all PRs long, long, long before lylo.-
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In post 3101, Regfan wrote:In post 3100, Magua wrote:Mass claim is a terrible idea.
You think there's more town power than thesevendead town prs and the three, possibly four claimed ones?
If you do not think there's more town power, then you agree with me that a massclaim is pointless and scum will do exactly what I said.-
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@Pandora:Try *reading* my actual post and then responding to it.
In post 3084, Pandora wrote:
Magua: Don't traitors normally know who their partners are, but the partners don't know about the traitor? That's how it's worked in every game I've ever played with a traitor in it. Regardless of that Starbuck is town for being an easy target with bouts of suicide.
In post 3069, Magua wrote:
@Pandora:Do you think that Feysal knew his partners? If so, why did he choose DCLXVI over himself D1? If he didn't know his partners, why are you clearing Timeater as not-Stannis?-
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Regfan wrote:I think scum will do what you said; yes. I also want them to do as much, I think if there's no more claimed power roles than 4nxiety and Pandora are most certainly legitimate. The reasoning behind the mass-claim being needed or not is to get a feel about the legitimacy of the claims. Lets flip this around though (I'm assuming you agree there's likely not much if no more power), what is the harm in mass-claiming? Right now the next 2 nights or so of night-kills are already a given for scum; Pandora, 4nxiety, Myself and potentially PlumNacho depending on how today ends. So what's the real downside?
ASoS had 8 town PRsplusthe 3 town brothers out of a game of 24 -- that is almost 2/3 of the town (there were 6 VTs). ASoS *also* had a massclaim on D5 that (helped) ruined the game for town because it gave scum the roadmap of who to kill.
A Clash of Kings had 9 PRs out of 24 (and another town who was just a trigger) with 7 VTs.
A Feast for Crows is LOLIDUNNO because Faraday is too lazy to post his setup for that game, but off the top of my head there was Mina's IC, the tracker, the bodyguard, the roleblocker, the poisoner, the weak doctor, the neighbor, and I'm certain I'm forgetting at least 2.
So, yes, I think there are other town PRs out there.
Thor665 wrote:I'm more onboard for the Tyrene without an 'r' lynch now.
Still want Zdenek dead too though.
Zdenek is town. Stop either being terrible or acting like you're terrible, whichever it is.-
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Regfan wrote:I think scum will do what you said; yes. I also want them to do as much, I think if there's no more claimed power roles than 4nxiety and Pandora are most certainly legitimate.
Which doesn't fucking help if they get killed toNight because lolonlyprs.
And if there are PRs left who claim, congratulations, you've just made the situation worse.
Regfan wrote:Lets flip this around though (I'm assuming you agree there's likely not much if no more power), what is the harm in mass-claiming? Right now the next 2 nights or so of night-kills are already a given for scum; Pandora, 4nxiety, Myself and potentially PlumNacho depending on how today ends. So what's the real downside?]
And I'll address this to Tierce, as well, because of her lolwhydontscumcrosskill and to Minimum because of their lolnomoreprsleft:
You massclaim and you guarantee that scum gets to shoot PRs. There's no guesswork there for them anymore -- there's no "Well, X is playing it really quiet and soft, he might be a PR, maybe we should risk it?" sort of thing. Look at Benmage. Why did Benmage die? Benmage ruins towns. What scum, in their right mind, would kill Benmage? Scum who thought he was a PR. You massclaim and you remove that. And that's the best case of everyone claiming VT.
And since all the scum are going to claim VT anyways, Tierce, you're removing any chance that they'll crosskill.-
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Jiminy Jesus H. Christ, I can't believe you nameclaimed in response to Feysal. What. The. Fuck.-
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Flavor talk about Jeyne Poole is crap and everyone involved in it (AurorusVox, Thor665) is bad and should feel bad. Well, AV should feel bad for a lot of reasons having to do with the last few pages, but whatev.
In post 3171, Regfan wrote:
Benmage died because he was obvtown. That's likely all there is to it. Now we already have a lot of PR's claimed and clears, scum already have targets for at night, how you're not understanding that I don't get. By mass-claiming we're making this more information shared, more information to get reads of. Better chance of lynching scum. I still want mass-claim and you've got one post to convince me otherwise or else I'll either start a popcorn of a specified claiming order of. Also not speaking of claims, who else is scum other than Timeater?
On what planet was Benmage obvtown?
For scum targets, the part that I'm not seeing how *you* don't get is that the scum have targets, but they have uncertainty about what other targets may be available. Look at Shinori. He's a PR. He's way more obvtown than Benmage ever was. Yet, scum are killing other people (coughcoughBenmagecough) in preference to him. $20 says that that's because scum are trying to hit a bigger threat.
You massclaim, you remove all that guesswork out of whether scum should be shooting the claimed PRs or aiming for an unclaimed one.
---------
As for who is scum: working under the assumption that there's (at least) four more scum left:
Timeater is scum.
AurorusVox is either scum or a massive town hindrance. Either way needs to go. The entirety of his saporerint vote and the ensuing crapfest after that reads as entirely fake, and we're past the point where I really care about "I'm gonna do something incredibly stupid and see who calls me scummy for it and then call them scum" type deals.
Also, hate hate hate "Why would I lie about this?" in 3186.
Feeling more and more that BBmolla is scum. I agree with your defense that "Stannis wouldn't have that information," I disagree with "Aegon wouldn't out that information." If BBmolla is a traitor, outting that information makes *perfect* sense. Of course, him being a possible traitor but not really a possible mafia makes me not really care about lynching him at this point.
Don't have a good read on a fourth. Probably kortul via PoE more than actual scumminess. I'm developing more of a townread on Thor and Tierce from their posting toDay versus yesterDay.-
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In post 3263, Regfan wrote:Magua, I disagree because I do think Benmage was miles more obvtown than Shinori. I also don't think scum are aiming for 'bigger-threats' but are just removing players they consider unlynchable so they have potential lynchbait still alive when the game progresses.
Consider that even if you're right (you're not), Benmage-town destroys towns. To kill him, scum would have to have thought he's a PR.
@Pandora:I'm hoping that my quote pyramiding here will actually get you to respond to my actual question, re: why is Timeater not Stannis.
In post 3105, Magua wrote:@Pandora:Try *reading* my actual post and then responding to it.
In post 3084, Pandora wrote:
Magua: Don't traitors normally know who their partners are, but the partners don't know about the traitor? That's how it's worked in every game I've ever played with a traitor in it. Regardless of that Starbuck is town for being an easy target with bouts of suicide.
In post 3069, Magua wrote:
@Pandora:Do you think that Feysal knew his partners? If so, why did he choose DCLXVI over himself D1? If he didn't know his partners, why are you clearing Timeater as not-Stannis?-
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Hey, AurorusVox, do you think it's a little odd that one of your townreads hasn't said anything all Day?-
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Pre-proddodge proddodge.
Originally read AV's claim as pointless. Had to go back and reread and process to see what the fuss with the unvoting was about. Odd for MoS to ask Shadow if he was possibly roleblocked, but the missing kill due to rolestoppage makes eight thousand percent more sense than bvoigt attempting to perform the kill.
Thank god Timeater's actually (probably) going to get lynched.
That's about the sum of my thoughts at this point. Going to be away for all of tomorrow, will catch up Sunday if Tim's not been lynched by then.-
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Holy Jesus Christ, the last three pages of Zdenek/Thor back-and-forth were just physically goddamn painful for me to read.
Zdenek, Aurorus, you both have said that you're willing to vote Timeater, so can you please just go ahead and do this? kthxbai.-
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Re: Thor/Zdenek, I'm reading Zdenek as town. Paranoid town and slightly tunneling town, but still town. This is different from the Zdenek I saw in AFFC and ASoS (both scum) who was much less committed and much more standoffish, and much more like the Zdenek I saw in War in Heaven III, who I (as scum) kept alive as a possible mislynch up until the game got eaten by tigers.
Thor reads as someone just stirring shit up. I can see town-Thor doing this easily because it's also something I like to do as town, especially when I don't want to read and just want to see reactions. The thing is, I could also see scum-Thor doing it because why not? It's easy to do. So I'm not reading Thor's play in this as out-and-out scummy like Minimum is, but I'm certainly not reading it as town.-
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30 second important overview:
Regfan has two votes for today. He's also name-cleared via a claimed JOAT result.
Plum's Yo Mama will have their alignment revealed at the end of today.
BBmolla has role information that the Aegon scumteam is split up. Feysal flipped Stannis traitor.
I await with bated breath your stream-of-consciousness catchup post. Can't tell you.-
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In post 3442, Plums Yo Mamma wrote:Feysalhasclaimed to have information on Jeyne Poole, but he'sdeadscum and no one cares.
FTFY-
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In post 3446, Tyene Sand wrote:Did I miss something?
No. Looks like Plum or Nacho is just really bad at copy editing.
And yeah, AV's slot protected Shadow1psc, not bvoigt. May have protected Shadow *from* bvoigt, but whatev.-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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How did this get to the point of "let's not lynch Tim and let's lynch Thor?" I understand being bored with this Day, but seriously what?
Only reason for this Day to continue is so that Andrius canbe lazy and not evergive us reads and that's really it. And then we lynch Timeater.
Thor, your whole "I'm going to stir the shit" shtick got old 20 pages ago. In any contest between you and Zdenek you're getting lynched; the only reason you're behind compared to the Zdenek wagon is that we're all voting Timeater. Now can you do me a solid and stop making these pages physically painful for me to read?-
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Magua Jack of All Trades
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- Joined: January 18, 2009