Marketplace Mafia II - Game Over

[guille2015]

You guys don't sleep.

I've got a town read on Medhi, The Gentlemen and Void.

BMolla's claim is null. Bum role fits the theme.

Scum usually take town claims seriously. Even if they're utter obvious horseshit. The town don't lie bs gets stuck in their head.

I don't believe this bum horseshit, it's not a real role, but spb taking it seriously means he's probably scum and we can sort BB out later.

You are correct, mafia do usually take town claims seriously. But you are not taking into consideration that there are two mafia teams and that they don't know each other. Additionally, I find that there is a potential for a third party scum in this game just like the previous game. Still, this is a good point to keep an eye on.

I am tired and have to get some RL work done. Need Coffee. I was not able to concentrate reading the later half of the game. For what it's worth, the votes on Tammi makes sense. I got lost on seanald. I don't see the reason to vote for him. I'll take a good look at them when I am not pressured to get back to work.

[guille2015]

I have to Reread this game. 17 pages such a hassle. I'll finish soon though.

A quickie on the recent events.

Miller-Vigilante is now apparently a role in the game.

I don't actually think its a town one. But its a role, to be sure. I have a sneaking suspicion it also includes "immune to night kills" or something similar.

He is likely not mafia. He might or might not be town. He is a threat to Mafia regardless. Let mafia waste a kill on him instead. If he is town this would be beneficial to town in itself. If he is a 3rd party even better.

[guille2015]

Not the NK.

[guille2015]

Only the more relevant stuff.

Page 8:

@Stephan: Scumslip much?

Same thing as MoI. The diference is that MoI made a big deal out of it, and Defender was not even available, hence he came out of it clean.

Page 10:

Here is were the QT thing heated up. Stephan mentions the QT and calls out for MoI saying that MoI could not possibly have missed the QT proposed from the Mod. It's clear, in retrospect, that MoI simply checked the Fake PM and the Intro for the QT reference. Thus his lashing out. MoI could simply say that he missed it, but he didn't. Interesting enough, he completely disappeared after he got this pressure, and somebody somewhere mentioned that they say him posting elsewhere. IMO, this last part is a much graver scum tell than missing what's on the PM. For the record I agree with those that the particular information that MoI missed appears to be information sent to everyone in the game regardless of alignment, in which case MoI did in fact missed his or scum didn't get it, which would have been bad modding from Magua.
Stephan, Greygnarl, Sala and Phillamon use the miss by MoI as an Obvscum tell. I think the real tell was him going bonkers on it and not simply saying "I missed it, sorry".

Page 11-12:

Pitty clarified her information about the QT thing. Gangbang on seanald. Nothing more of note.

Page 13:

There is a fight between GreyIce and SPB. SPB is planning the doctors action. This is normally not a good idea. I don't know why they want to protect themselves over anyone else.

Page 14:

I disagree with GreyIce 327 position of why SPB are scum. First because he believed the Molla Claim and second because he wanted GreyIce (and others) vigged. Not substantial really. The rest of the page goes on about the same about how SBP buddies with GB. Generally I don't agree with GreyIce and I think he is tunneling. Last time I saw him do this, he was town.

Page 15:

I dislike Medhi's Post 352. His scum reads are players who haven't posted. This game has at least 5-6 scum and he has 6 players in null and scum reads. Not particularly good reads really. I agree with GreyIce and GB that a plan is requiered to maximize town's powers. Last game GreyIce Won because he basically had all the good powers. Bmolla Kills MoI.

Page 16:

GreyIce goes crazy here. "MoI is really fucking GOOD when he's town." I actually agree with this. Shooting MoI was dumb and the fact that he ended up being scum was luck. That Bmolla was telling the truth however, is not an indication of his alignment. For the time being though, he is more of a threat to mafia then to Town.

Page 17:

Repercusions. Sala's vague information in 421.

Page 18:

Page 19:

Sala's clarification 457, I agree with 1, 2 (GreyIce not being MoI's buddy) and 5. ISOing MoI is a good idea. But I want to remind everyone that MoI had another mafia team he knows nothing about, which means that he can't force lynches too hard for fear of catching the other Mafia. This applies to the remaining mafia since they half to be careful not to lynch or kill the other mafia.

Page 20:

I am tired. Caveat, I haven't seen defender as scum, but in the games I was with him (2) he vaguely posted and had crap defense, which got him lynched early in both games. I like to point out that this game, the lack of posting is amplified due to a large number of posts that happen per day.

Page 21:

Yeah, I noticed the "scumslip much?" Basically the only reason I am not against the Defender Lynch.

Page 22 and onward:

Planning so I don't have to analyze these pages.

tl;dr:

MoI's shot might hae been luck but his stumbling and reaction to the QT makes him Obvscum in retrospect. Anybody that was headstrong about Killing or Lynching MoI because of this slip is likely Town. Having someone like MoI as scum would have been beneficial for the scum parties so the other Mafia team will likely not Force the issue, they will also likely not get too involve in it though.
Defender is playing at his town Meta from what I recognize. However, he echoed MoI's QT slip. I am in favor of his Lynch.
Planing on the Oracled abilities is a good idea.

[guille2015]

Night1 auction items have been posted.
Paraphrased for your reading pleasure.

Two counts of auction investigator (auction+player=did they get it?)
Targeted vote blocker (target+player=target can't vote player)
Two counts of banker (how much $$$?)
Three counts of Sixth Sense (if target dies, get to talk to them)
Vig shot
Four counts of untrackable and/or unwatchable Master of Ninjitsu Arts
Three counts sartor, who is really a fake investigation results giver
Two counts of follower (where did they go?, but not what they do)
Stalker (eyeball a player, who visits them?)

Wait? where'd you get this?

[guille2015]

Night1 auction items have been posted.
Paraphrased for your reading pleasure.

Two counts of auction investigator (auction+player=did they get it?)
Targeted vote blocker (target+player=target can't vote player)
Two counts of banker (how much $$$?)
Three counts of Sixth Sense (if target dies, get to talk to them)
Vig shot
Four counts of untrackable and/or unwatchable Master of Ninjitsu Arts
Three counts sartor, who is really a fake investigation results giver
Two counts of follower (where did they go?, but not what they do)
Stalker (eyeball a player, who visits them?)

Wait? where'd you get this?

I'm assuming this is a rhetorical question.

You said this was posted, but i don't see it anywhere. Are you the oracle.

[guille2015]

Is the Vig kill the same as the night Kill?

[guille2015]

Stephan is the one I would trust the most with the night kill. If he maxed out his investment, It would make it prohibitively expensive for mafia to buy it. We can also use it in the event that we have two suspicious players on the day. We lynch one and vig the other.

I'm fine with investing my money.

[guille2015]

I agree with this plan. But I want to point out some flaws.

First, it assumes that most of the mafia are on the Scum read side. Since there are 4-5 mafia left not counting any SK or if defender is mafia. Because they are scum reads, the likely hood of scum being in such a list is high. But there is still a possibility of having mafia in the trusted camp.

It also weakens town as a whole if there are less than ~3 mafia in that group. I think everyone needs to agree to the list and consequently also tie some players to other.

Since you planned this, I think you should not be in the receiving end of it.

[guille2015]

Giving multiple transfer to the same person should reduce the chances of Hitting scum, thus reducing flaw #1.

[guille2015]

Since you planned this, I think you should not be in the receiving end of it.

Uhhh why?

If he were scum/sk planning this, he would make a killing.

[guille2015]

Focused money on a specific few players just increases the likelihood of a bunch of our funds going missing in one night if one of those players die. It's much better to spread it over 8ish or so players than having it on 3-4.

It wasn't my suggestion, I just agreed to it. With the player to player plan yuo risk giving the money to scum, with less players you risk losing 2x money. That is risk on both plans. Both remove money from the most probable mafia.

[guille2015]

Since you planned this, I think you should not be in the receiving end of it.

Uhhh why?

If he were scum/sk planning this, he would make a killing.

Eeexcept I bought the RBing ability, you really think I would buy both SK and RB and you really really think I would be scum based off of my play (since I assume you've been reading)

I mean, your logic is piss poor, but I'm interested to hear more of it

By Sk I think you Mean NK. Anyways, you could have bought anything and it would not have mattered to your allignment. However, I do think you are town though, mostly because I like this plan. I am just covering my bases because I have been mistaken on my town reads. It's a fail safe.

[guille2015]

Giving multiple transfer to the same person should reduce the chances of Hitting scum, thus reducing flaw #1.

Unfortunately, with the transfers public knowledge, consolidating the transfers makes the single person at higher risk for scum targeting.

True. It's risk giving more money to scum or risk losing more money.

[guille2015]

The reason we need 1 for 1 is because say 1 player receives funds from two people. The two people have $100 and $150. According to the 95% rule, the player receiving should get about $240. Let's say they only receive $220. That means one of the players giving was fucking with them OR the person receiving is lying. Then we have to possibly go through TWO mislynches to find the scum. It leads to too much uncertainty. We need 1 person giving to 1 other person at a time.

This makes sense, I'm cool with it.

[guille2015]

I, Guille, AGREE WITH THIS TRANSACTION MATCHUP.

[guille2015]

Guille failsafes tend to harm plans mostly and unless a game is truly broken some risks taken is good.

can't blame me for being cautious, as long as we understand the risks involved.

BTW, full disclosure I invested all of my money last night.

[guille2015]

Should we advertize Neighborizer? Remember that Eid gets the power too, so advertizing for NK will give her the night kill.

[guille2015]

Should we advertize Neighborizer? Remember that Eid gets the power too, so advertizing for NK will give her the night kill.

Cop>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Neighborizor

Like
Not
Even
Close

Obviously! I never said it wasn't.

[guille2015]

Cop, takes priority tonight, so Eid will get that ability too, thus being able to use it Night 2. While somebody bids for the cop ability.

[guille2015]

Eid can't pick up night kills from advertising.

Well, that is if she is telling the truth. Which is null for me at the moment.

[guille2015]

Should we advertize Neighborizer? Remember that Eid gets the power too, so advertizing for NK will give her the night kill.

She says she doesn't get that one.
NK is in every auction, why waste money advertising it?

uh? I'm don't want Nightkill advertized.

[guille2015]

No need to do the 95% thing, that just complicates things. Since it's just math, it should not matter once they receive the amount.

[guille2015]

Stefan should get $223 from moi.

If this is true you have $235.

[guille2015]

I have to go home, My activity will drop to near 0. I already claimed and agreed. See you tomorrow.

[guille2015]

^What about Defender?

[guille2015]

So, Elmo is the last person that needs to claim and we end the day.

Can we get an Updated list of the plan?

[guille2015]

Eidolon?

[guille2015]

Lol at SBP and Salamance.

With that said they are both town, just because of that. At the very least not mafia.

Mafia out-advertized the Cop. Which I would guess that they want that power and don't want cop to show up any time soon. This leaves me to think that Yesterday's plan did in fact weaken mafia, or at least scare them enough to not want to get into a bidding war with town.

The high bid on Nightkill means that Stephan fought for the NK, which reinforces that Stephan is town. Stephan, however needs to claim if he won the NK so that we know if it's in the hands of scum again. If Stephan has the NK, then we have 3 town directed kills available for us today.

VM is also likely town. He would not have known that he was blocked if he didn't attempted to protect last night's target.

[guille2015]

There's lack of reason to hide my money actions. I transferred all of my money to GB (I realize the effect on the plan, but at the same time the reasoning behind no two give to the same person was it meant looking at two people so just trusting me would have worked).

Considering scum wanted neigborizer I don't think they have it so I don't think we should be claiming lack of it. If everyone disagrees sure, but at the moment I think it'll just out a pr likely with town.

Anyways, I think somebody already claimed neighborizer, but I forgot.

In fact, I want bulletproof. Discuss.

I think that whoever we agree on getting the cop (When it becomes available) or another important power, should be the person that bids for the Bulletproof.

What's the plan for tonight.

[guille2015]

Nah I kept track of claims closely yesterday. The neighborizer hasn't been claimed. I just don't think it should be either.

I thought it had been, but I guess I mistook it for something else. I think Neighborizer is an asset for mafia to join both mafia. You having admitted to having the first one means to me that you are likely not mafia. Some of the players should get enough money to outbid the neighborizer from mafia.

From the list of powers: Accountant and Bulletproof would be extremely helpful for town. Everything else is circumstantial. The Vote powers will likely come into play late in the game so out-winning mafia with them should be advantageous. Additionally, once claimed, they should be used early in the game to prevent the bearer to sneak one at the end of the game.

I don't think blind bid will be a problem. It should be claimed immediately though, so that we know if it falls in the hands of scum and therefore we could make appropriate response to it. It might have a different mechanic then last games, due to the bidding difference.

I don't particularly understand the wage part. It would seem that you send a target player receives an x amount of money. If this is the case, scum would certainly take advantage of this.

[guille2015]

I see no reason for Salamance to get the Bulletproof based on that plan of his. I do think the plan is good, but having BP is not a necessity. I'd rather have the bulletproof go to those that won the Watcher and Tracker powers, or some other important power.

[guille2015]

If Elmo dies his investigation immunity goes to scrap, which will mean that mafia cannot use it.

[guille2015]

VOTE: Elmo

[guille2015]

We can Vig Elmo first and then Lynch Phil if his contribution is not satisfying.

Elmo's only post today was 1219 were he acknowledges that he is being targeted and does nothing about it.

On another note, GreyIce's replacement has said nothing. Niether has Eidolon. But I am more suspicious of Eidolon than of GreyIce's slot.

I am not keen on killing Seanald and loosing the Cop power.

[guille2015]

D3f3nd3r

Defender was town? What do you mean bussed?

[guille2015]

Gotta be quick since I'm going to a wedding.

Phil's list looks good. It seems that he actually took the time to read through.

I wonder why they shot GreyGnarl. I must have missed all that. I thought GG was considered a town read by most.

Elmo might likely get replaced. But I am fine with finishing him off today.

[guille2015]

Mod: I will be V/LA until Monday.

[guille2015]

I have been distracted from this game by other things. I'll have to reread the day anyways, but I have caught up on a few things.

Callforjudgement likely town. I am satisfied with his response. Elmo flaked and his posting is reflective of that.

Unvote

[guille2015]

Prod dodge. It's been a lousy week.

[guille2015]

8 pages to catch up. Well, lets see.

Tammy wins the Neighborizer, and announces it. Tammy is one of my strongest town reads now.

Seanald investigates CFJ. Makes me think that he just wasted the power. I would have gone for other more suspicious players. Not only CFJ replaced in with pretty good town colors, he also had the II power. There is one things to note though. Because, CFJ was one of the leaders for the Shamrock wagon yesterday, I'd think that, if CFJ where scum, they'd save the power for someone else, thinking that seanald would not investigate them, so I can understand Seanald's use at this point. But that's just me playing devils advocate. (I wrote this prior to CFJ posting).

Medhi keeps calling me super lurker, which makes me sad. I'd consider myself super inactive. It's not just this game and I apologize for it. This game is moving at a pace I am not comfortable yet, especially when most of the conversations happen when I'm unable to reply. I'm trying to figure out a method to get my contribution up. Eventually, I know that I will pick up speed in due time. That is mostly how I am.

Greygnarl won the kill. He was not contested buy any mafia. This I find suspect. We are certain that one mafia team went after the Neighborizer and the other barely didn't show any activity in the bids. I would have thought that they would at least go for the knight kill. It is not a bad idea for scum to claim a night kill and get directed into killing someone, which with a bit of influence from the other mafia, would likely be a town player or a 3rd party. If he was contested, I wouldn't have been thinking through that route. That said, it's a good idea to let him live just in case and let him use the kill on a town directed player.

Peregrine: I thought Vioded was suppose to send $186 not $187 like you mention in post 2136

N is tarnishing my Salamance Town read.

Phil is null at the moment.

Pitty is also null at the moment. I don't know what the argument against her is at the moment.

I am getting a scum feel from Tazaro.

I disagree with CFJ that BBmolla is town for the reason he gave. CFJ is not taking into account that there is just one kill available per night. This would mean that BBmolla could very well be Right mafia or SK, just as much as Town.

I have a town read on Vioded.

Deas is worry some for me. His power is legit. His alignment is not particularly confirmed yet. I doubt mafia has that ability. At the very worst he is 3rd Party. In that case his investigation tonight will help us regardless of his alignment.

[guille2015]

guille: Are you sure DeasVail's role is confirmed? I don't see any reason why he couldn't be scum with Seanald (or scum opposite Seanald and somehow know his alignment).

I said he was not confirmed. His power(if real) I doubt belongs to mafia. It would give mafia am unfair advantage. Which leads me to assume that in the worst case scenario he is an SK, just like that power was in the last game. At the very least he is someone I don't want in LYlo.

It is possible, just like you said that if Seanald is Mafia then dead could also be mafia.

[guille2015]

Ok coolbeans, thanks babe

Next on the stand is Guille

Guille, u scum bro???

These questions are going to prove very useful in our Proposal

Nope.

[guille2015]

All right, enough jokery, my real question for you Guille is what are your thoughts about Tazaro? Especially in my last exchange with him. I thought it was pretty townie, just want to see what you took out of it.

Ok. Im on the phone right now so it makes it hard for me to go back to and analyze. I admit I paid no attention to your interaction with him. My hut feeling comes from earlier than that, and I can't really put it into words yet. But my first order of business tomorrow is to ISO him with the known scum.

[guille2015]

Anyways, can you explain why we are not lynching Seanald and letting his townflip determine who gets the cop, and otherwise make alternate plans for his scumflip?

This is bad. Regardless of what Seanald flips. If he flips town, by your logic it would be me to buy the cop power. However, I practically have no money. It would be relatively inexpensive for mafia to get the cop out of town hands. Now, the best option is for SBP to grab it.

[guille2015]

If the cop falls on the hands of mafia, then it's useless. If the cop falls on the hands of town, we can confirm town or better yet confirm scum. Mafia would likely want to avoid that at any cost. Also, there are two mafias, although coordination is difficult, if they manage to do it, they can get the most out of the bids. If DV and Seanald are opposite mafias, then they likely have already coordinated what they have to do.

[guille2015]

Pitty's response to the guilty claim, I agree makes her more likely to be scum. That is today's Lynch.

DV is likely town if Pitty flips scum. And with four scum reads out of 13 makes this game a quick win.

This post is pretty compatible with guille-scum:

Lol at SBP and Salamance.

With that said they are both town, just because of that. At the very least not mafia.

Mafia out-advertized the Cop. Which I would guess that they want that power and don't want cop to show up any time soon. This leaves me to think that Yesterday's plan did in fact weaken mafia, or at least scare them enough to not want to get into a bidding war with town.

"We really badly need Neighbourizer but want town to think that we're just scared of Cop"

The high bid on Nightkill means that Stephan fought for the NK, which reinforces that Stephan is town. Stephan, however needs to claim if he won the NK so that we know if it's in the hands of scum again. If Stephan has the NK, then we have 3 town directed kills available for us today.

"Our half of the scumteam didn't win the nightkill, did yours?"

VM is also likely town. He would not have known that he was blocked if he didn't attempted to protect last night's target.

Way to put words in my mouth. If I didn't think you were town, I would have considered this deliberate misrepresentation.

[guille2015]

Well, I guess this is the end of the line for me. I like the Lynch list you've got there. By POE the last two scum should be in that list, which means it's a victory for me too.

Anyways. It's been fun. I've been demotivated since I got all my cash siphoned out. Regardless, it's fine end, the victory is close.

[guille2015]

But then guille just rolled over and pulled a Pitty so scratch that. Both Pitty and guile had believable arguments they could have pulled out to try to save themselves and didn't.

Well, what can I see. I have been completely demotivated from this game, by no fault of the game itself. Having to read through 15 pages was something I did not predict On top of not having any influential power. Mostly my fault I guess.

Things I could have said to save myself? Well, I don't think there is much. Lets see. The fact that Seanald was part of a mafia that was eliminated, if we go by CFJ's numbers would mean that I was from the other mafia, in which case our interaction could not have been as obvious as it was claimed. I thought about that argument, but I don't think it would have done any good and I think that having me in Lylo would actually damage town if by any chance one of the big townie reads is scum.

[guille2015]

The message is likely an attempt to WIFOM some confusion in the game. Best to ignore.

[guille2015]

This was a fun game. I pretty much sucked though. The amount of posts when I was not able to get to them was overwhelming. I know it can be done, but when you have to factor in that you need to be fake scum-hunting, then the difficulty will be twofold. I guess I'll have to Hydra the next full game to minimize this.

I was in full agreement with the plan to siphon money. It would have been the death to town if at least one of mafia was on the receiving end. All the actions were called upon, mafia always had more money, and it was just a matter of killing those with the most money or stronger power. MoI was the only player of the bunch that I think could have managed, but it's a pitty that he missed that message.

I managed to detect Seanald's signal that Pitty was his team mates. By that time I was like, "we are fucked". I was completely taken by surprise that GreyIce was mafia.

As for MoI's message. I can understands DaBois's position, but everyone one else didn't see that? BMolla made a really bad kill. Regardless, that's the way this game goes.

As for my last few posts. I really was uninspired by that time. I figured that I was lost already. I had sacrificed for phil so I didn't transfer money at the end, neither to GG or to Tammy. Even If I could convince everybody that I was town, I would have had a tough time without being able to capitalize on the actions.

We planned to be a group that framed players. We transferred small amounts of money to key players in an attempt to frame the transferring party. But for some odd reason nobody noticed that they received more money than they should have received. I didn't want Medhi to calculate the ending transfers so that it would have appeared that the transfering party made a mistake and transferred more money than they should have had. Voided had to transfer $186 but PV received $187. They completely walked over this without even an incline of a doubt. PV said: "Voided send $187, that's about right". Nobody noticed this, and I even hinted at it. Voided couldn't have sent more money unless he was lying about his money and transfered a little bit too much=Scum.

As for the neighborizer, when MoI died, we new we had to 1. avoid the advertising of Cop and 2 get the Neighbor. We had more money than Tammy, but I failed when I did the math and bet less. From the very beginning we let the Right get the Night Kill. So we could concentrate on support. Regardless It wouldn't have worked much since mafia was completely on the suspect side of the game since the beginning.

I had fun though. And the concept is good. I will likely play part III if it happens.

I expected more third parties though. I think the game would have been different if the mafia could communicate and there where a listening serial killer to balance out the messaging, like it was in the last game.

[guille2015]

Yeah, had at least one mafia stayed on the town side, then this game would have had a different result.

Now, personally I think this game needed a 3rd party SK or something. additionally, I am thinking that the bidding should have been, you spend all the money you bid on it. So if you bid $100, then you pay $100 even if the next bidder is $1. This should make all bids affordable, and likely reduce any possible game breaking attempts. Thoughts?

[guille2015]

I'd like to play your next iteration. I had fun. I am likely going to Hydra for any Large games I play.