Suburban Warfare - GAME OVER

[Hoopla]

Actually going back and reading the flavour in my role pm, it says I'm the new one. So there you go...

I had a feeling this was going to come but I don't know why you didn't say so till I pointed out the issue with your claim,

Dunno. Don't really pay attention to flavour and didn't want to have to scroll through my inbox on my phone to find it.

[Hoopla]

Chamber, this is the most town I've been as town in a long time. I am surprised you don't see it.

Farside, we're massclaiming because this is a role madness game that turns into a logic puzzle deep in the game, and will need more than a day to parse it all and speculate about the setup/PoE the game. It's already started, so we kinda need to follow through with it. Preferably as soon as possible.

[Hoopla]

I don't agree with that theory. Scum are good at looking not like scum, not necessarily out and out town. There are a bunch of things scum can't/don't fake because they either can't or haven't thought of trying it as scum.

[Hoopla]

I keep seeing people say that in the games I'm in, and then losing to people they've poe'd as town.

That's because they're not doing it right.

Farside: that sounds good to me.

[Hoopla]

Actually going back and reading the flavour in my role pm, it says I'm the new one. So there you go...

Oh Hoopla

VOTE: Hoopla

Shouldn't have tried to claim that neighborhood movement thing

Why are you voting me? You really think I'd claim responsibility for something I didn't cause two days from mylo?

Like someone else said, Metal needs to claim what he did each night.

[Hoopla]

Role: Beloved princess.

Ability screw over player in my neighborhood when I die.
(I hate beloved princess roles in general but it effects only the neighborhood I'm in)

I don't understand your role, farside. From what I understand when a BP gets lynched/or dies, the town skips a day phase? So how can your role only affect the neighbourhood you're in?

[Hoopla]

Why are you voting me Oversoul?

[Hoopla]

That's coz I'm the prez, of course there will be a lot going on.

[Hoopla]

in any case i have nothing important to share from last night other than that we have discovered that hoopla is scum

Nobody has provided a reason for me being scum, yet my wagon somehow has four votes. What is your reason?

[Hoopla]

Metal needs to claim exactly what he did on each night.

From what I can see, he is missing an action.

[Hoopla]

the cross with bob's fakeclaim that you never questioned before

As I explained to farside when she accused me of this, I wasn't online between bob's claim and him being hammered. What was there to question?

the fact that your powers are stacked super duper high in a way that a confirmed "role madness" game very likely wouldn't allow for town to have against scum and that scum have already flipped as having such (in other words bob flipped a scum role with lots of power and the many powers you've claim align more with that scum flip than the town flips)

If anything, amongst the slew of mostly useless fruit vendors and 1-shot roles, wouldn't you expect at least one townsperson to actually have a good role? Also, if you think I'm scum with Bob, why waste my gladiator power on him so early in the game? Don't say "to look town" because that isn't a real reason. I wouldn't waste a free mislynch like that as scum.

[Hoopla]

oh and also relating to 2 and 3, tell me just how bob claimed a power so very similar- almost identical- to your own if he didn't know your powers already to draw part of a fakeclaim from

I don't know. You'd have to ask Bob after the game why he claimed the role he did.

How about you answer something for me then. Why would I as scum then claim the ability to move people the next day? I would stay quiet about it.

[Hoopla]

Also going to say, bob claimed day 2 his ability, you used it day 3 without asking/saying anything.

I have to use it. Reck sent me a PM at the end of Night 2 telling me to close down a neighbourhood. I assume it was because four neighbourhoods could be moved into three at that stage, and I assume I will be asked to do the same when three is possible to fit into two. My role PM merely states I will be asked to do this at various points in the game.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: you going to explain your scum read on those you listed besides shin and spy?

I didn't bother elaborating because I didn't think people would bother reading what I had to say if I spoke too much. Case in point, you believing I have a scumread on Spy despite it being the opposite.

Who would you like me to talk about?

[Hoopla]

Right, I've been putting off trying to work out what's going on here because it's been hurting my head.

Metal has claimed responsibility for last night's switch of Oversoul/Antihero. Nobody is countering this switch, so this confirms Metal was the one who did that last night.

On N1, Marquis was switched out of Oak into Pine. But nobody went from Pine into Oak, but Mollie died, so I assume Metal tried to switch those two players. (This would be a lot easier if he just said what he did each night).

NOW, I got my neighbourhood renovation PM at the start of D3 and had 24 hours to close a neighbourhood and submit a new combination. In my PM from Reckoner, this was the distribution I had to choose from:

Oak Ct

Desperado
Hoopla

Pine St

farside22
Metal Sonic
Marquis

Cedar St

Oversoul
SpyreX
ZZZX

Maple Ct

AGar
Antihero
Shinobi
chamber

This is how the distributions looked to me when I used my power (as can be represented in column 3 of this chart). I closed Maple and moved everyone from there into three neighbourhoods (as represented by column 4).

So, Metal is

NOT

responsible for moving chamber to Oak. He IS responsible for moving chamber. But that was from Pine to Maple. Which is the neighbourhood I closed at the start of D3, so chamber was effectively moved twice in that night phase and ended up at Oak. On that night, nobody else swapped neighbourhoods (from column 2 to column 3), however Metal moved chamber to Majiffy's neighbourhood which was the death that night.

So, Metal. Tell me exactly who you swapped each night.

I was responsible for switching chamber to my neighbourhood as you can see on the chart from column 2 to column 3, not you.

[Hoopla]

That's kinda confusing just looking at it. So, simply:

Column 2 --> Column 3 is what Metal did on N2.
Column 3 --> Column 4 is what I did at the end of N2/start of D3.

[Hoopla]

@hoopla: still waiting for a reply

Well...

There is a gap between Spyrex and Metal because it represents a gap in difference of townieness. Everyone else is kinda overlapping and I'm finding it hard to pick out differences between my second/third/fourth choice etc.

I'm still trying to work out why Metal said he moved chamber into MY neighbourhood, when I was the one who did that. Metal, please explain.

[Hoopla]

As for Antihero, it's more process-of-elimination. I don't think his presence and energy indicate alignment very much. Like, he's competent and seems townish, but I don't think I should be giving him credit for those things, so my read on Antihero mostly stems from my reads on other people, and I have more reason to believe they're town than him. If Shinobi is scum, it dramatically lowers Anti's chances of being scum though, so I feel like that flip will give me more insight into his alignment.

[Hoopla]

Didn't your ability happen during the day Hoopla?

At the end of N2/start of D3. I could have waited more time to submit my action, but I did it fairly swiftly.

[Hoopla]

Night 1: Swap marquis with salamence20
Night 2: Swap chamber and majiffy
Night 3: Swap Antihero and OVersoul


okay, trusted farside and marquis, help me analyse the significance of these results and why hoopla+chamber is actionfishing so blatantly and stubbornly

why did you say you moved chamber to MY neighbourhood (Oak) when on N2 you moved chamber to Majiff's neighbourhood (Maple)?

[Hoopla]

mmm, that's what i thought.

i don't think there's any conflict in our claimed actions, but all that really does is prove that Metal's abilities are what they say they are. ability doesn't prove alignment etc etc

[Hoopla]

mmm, that's what i thought.

i don't think there's any conflict in our claimed actions, but all that really does is prove that Metal's abilities are what they say they are. ability doesn't prove alignment etc etc

How do you think he got confused about his own motivations for making an action?

I don't know.

It's Metal Sonic.

He probably gets confused trying to tie up his shoelaces.

[Hoopla]

if we could just lynch hoopla already that would be really really nice

what triggered you from me being your biggest/only town read to now being your top suspect? i don't understand why you're suspicious of me, and why you suddenly changed. this day essentially started with your entire neighbourhood voting me out the gate with no reason and i still don't know why. i want to know why.

[Hoopla]

examples.

let me help you clarify your thoughts

[Hoopla]

last page far

[Hoopla]

Hey guys. Have been unexpectedly busy recently, but my schedule is clearing up now, so I'll make a post soon.

[Hoopla]

So, looking back on the massclaim, the one claim I believe the most is farside's. It just doesn't seem like a role that you'd give scum, and I also don't think it's the sort of claim Reck would give as a fakeclaim for scum or that farside would think up as a fakeclaim - people don't usually go for highly specific unique roles as a fakeclaim unless they're a certain type of player. And I think farside isn't that player - she seems more likely to work within known boundaries based on the way she plays, imo.

I'm skeptical about Shinobi's claim, mostly because it is a role than seems kinda problematic in terms of resolution and the amount of neighbourhood swapping and moving of players. The fact he's claimed it to be a non-traditional PGO where he gets to choose when to activate it seems convenient, as it enables him to not be caught out in the event of being targeted (if his claim is false). The one thing in his favour is the lack of killing roles in this game, but that has to be weighted against his play and PoE.

One thing I've also noticed is there have been three slots that have claimed an ability to redirect players or actions; me, Metal and chamber. I think from a balance/design perspective, Reck would probably not give all the redirection/chaos abilities to town, so this makes me more suspicious of chamber and I guess Metal too (but realistically I still don't see him as scum). There could be unclaimed redirection abilities lurking within the scumteam, but I feel like chamber is a logical choice for me, because he is basically an intersection of this redirection trio and the Metal/farside/chamber starting neighbourhood with no scum flipped in it yet but two of my town reads in there. I also remember being underwhelmed by 4nxi3ty's D1 lurkiness/fencesitting, so in all, chamber's slot ticks a lot of boxes in my PoE and from a general play sense.

I also think if chamber is scum, Antihero is town. I don't think Anti would link himself to chamber with a hammer like that. That would be a pretty weird interaction between buddies, imo. Shinobi/chamber seem like a viable scumteam, although I can't pick out the third scum yet.

Right now, I'm going to vote chamber as he is a more likely candidate than Shinobi imo, as there are some weird scumteam possibilities I see that involve Antihero, so I'd like to go for chamber since I think he is the only player in that neighbourhood (farside/chamber/Metal) that can be scum, whereas Shinobi or Antihero could be scum in that neighbourhood.

VOTE: chamber

I don't know if there is any interest for this wagon, but I am going to put it out there.

[Hoopla]

So your still hunting with the idea that scum is in each neighborhood?

2/1/1/0 or 1/1/1/1 with a strong preference for the former. If it isn't either of those combinations I'd be stunned.

[Hoopla]

I keep coming back to I don't think Hoopla is scum. There's a lot of things around the gladiator I don't like but at the end of the day unless there's a set of strange caveats on it, the gladiator ending on scum AND happening on D2 doesn't make any sense from scum-hoopla.

Listen to SpyreX. He knows I don't bus as scum and I especially don't UNNECESSARILY bus from nowhere as scum either. I have learnt that people are always paranoid about me no matter what I do, no matter how right I am with reads, no matter how many scum I catch - I am always a suspect. I have a better chance of winning as scum by having my teammates survive. There is no point for me to bus my teammates, because I do not get credit for it. See: the current wagon on me and the town's current collective opinions about me.

[Hoopla]

Me or Shinobi. No matter how I parse this out that's gotta be scum. JIC you're curious:

ZZZX(6): Bicephalous Bob, SpyreX, Shinobi, AGar, Marquis, Pine St

This is a good point actually. I definitely don't think all three scum bussed Bob, scum's (probably) best role.

[Hoopla]

All of a sudden, Hoopla is completely wishy-washy on her so-called "game breaking read." Why is this? Because of a role conflict that actually doesn't exist at all? This post is completely out-of-place, and imo, it's lynchworthy because she's reconsidering a possible lynch target for absolutely no reason.

I'm not wishy-washy on my towniest read. I was clearing up whether or not there was a conflict between our claimed actions - because if there was, that would override my read. But there wasn't, so I default back to my read. Kinda baffled how you could ever possibly read this as me "considering a lynch on Metal".

[Hoopla]

Hoopla is scum. The flavor claim ignoring the title being dead in flavor and subsequent "oh I guess I didn't mention that I replaced them" is her just sweeping it under the rug,

No, it isn't. It's me not paying attention to flavour... because I don't pay attention to flavour.

I didn't know what my role name was (only my abilities), and I was phoneposting at the time so I didn't want to look for what is essentially an arbitrary piece of information until farside was legimately questioning me about it for some reason. I am a popular and well-loved scummer, so wading through my messages is quite a chore

[Hoopla]

Still waiting to understand why you aren't pushing on oversoul

I think chamber/Shinobi are better options. I kinda think Oversoul's claim seems town. A useless role like that is more likely to be given to a townie, I think.

[Hoopla]

I don't see how you can turn around and go, "yeah this information doesn't prove anything, Metal could be scum," after you just had a hard townread on him.

I haven't been suspicious of Metal since his D1 stunt and I'm not suspicious of him now. The only time that wasn't true was when I was trying to clarify his role claim. Stop being obtuse.

[Hoopla]

I know that it's not the entirety of your argument, but I actually mustered up some motivation for this game and wrote a script to randomly distribute players. If the distribution was random the expected value for the number of all town groups is ~1.62. So keep that in mind when trying to use POE

Noted.

But that is assuming that the scum was distributed randomly which I'm not so sure about, and also assumes Reck doesn't reroll unfavourable draws if he is randomizing, which I'm also not sold on.

[Hoopla]

No seriously either you strongly feel scum in each neighborhood or you don't.
Every post is scum in each neighborhood, but you don't push the read.

I feel like I've said it more than a dozen times that I believe it to be 2/1/1/0 or 1/1/1/1 with a strong preference for the first choice. Here, I will make it easier for you:

Oak

Bob

Desp
Hoopla
Marquis

Maple

Agar

Antihero

Majiffy

Shinobi

Pine

chamber

farside
Metal

mollie

Cedar

Oversoul

SpyreX

vezok
ZZZX

Green is town. Blue is my town reads.

I'm choosing chamber over the Shinobi/Antihero option because he ticks these boxes: only person I see as a genuine chance of being scum in that neighbourhood. One of a handful of players who have redirection abilities when I don't think Reck would give all those neighbourhood manipulation abilities to town. 4nxi3ty's D1 play sucked.

I'm not choosing Oversoul over chamber because the only box he ticks is "only person I see as a genuine chance of being scum in that neighbourhood". Nothing else really. His claim seems town to me, and I was reading his early play as town too.

Do you see why I am choosing chamber over Oversoul now? There is a decent chance there is one all town neighbourhood, so I'm not going to lynch on "only possible scum within that neighbourhood" alone.

[Hoopla]

Something bothers me a bit....if it's 2/1/1/0 do you think there was scum in the group you were in? I noted you had no one highlighted in your neighborhood other the bob..

Last question do you think the vote analysis means anything?

Our group is likeliest to have a second scum in it if it's 2/1/1/0. If it's 1/1/1/1 the game is almost solved and will be very difficult to lose.

Who's vote analysis? Spy's?

[Hoopla]

sorry everyone, i've come down with a horrible fever in the last couple of days which is killing my ability to play this game. but i will try and make some posts today

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: it dawned on me you listed oversoul as scum recently and since changed that read do to day 1 read and claim. Both of those things happened in the game earlier. Please explain the earlier scum read on oversoul.

i'm not sure, i remember being back and forth on oversoul throughout the game, but he was never really a priority compared to other players in the game.

i wouldn't be surprised if he's scum from a PoE perspective, but my gut instinct about his claim is its town. why do you care about my oversoul read so much? he isn't a lynch candidate today.

[Hoopla]

well, it looks like it is two days until deadline. i'm not getting chamber lynched, so i guess i should compromise in the interest of giving myself a chance to survive.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shinobi

[Hoopla]

if anyone has questions for me, let me know.

[Hoopla]

That isn't a hammer and I'm not going to pretend it was.

[Hoopla]

this was a pretty depressing game...

[Hoopla]

i forgive you...