Suburban Warfare - GAME OVER

[Shinobi]

All of a sudden, Hoopla is completely wishy-washy on her so-called "game breaking read." Why is this? Because of a role conflict that actually doesn't exist at all? This post is completely out-of-place, and imo, it's lynchworthy because she's reconsidering a possible lynch target for absolutely no reason.

I'm not wishy-washy on my towniest read. I was clearing up whether or not there was a conflict between our claimed actions - because if there was, that would override my read. But there wasn't, so I default back to my read. Kinda baffled how you could ever possibly read this as me "considering a lynch on Metal".

I don't see how you can turn around and go, "yeah this information doesn't prove anything, Metal could be scum," after you just had a hard townread on him.

[Hoopla]

Still waiting to understand why you aren't pushing on oversoul

I think chamber/Shinobi are better options. I kinda think Oversoul's claim seems town. A useless role like that is more likely to be given to a townie, I think.

[Hoopla]

I don't see how you can turn around and go, "yeah this information doesn't prove anything, Metal could be scum," after you just had a hard townread on him.

I haven't been suspicious of Metal since his D1 stunt and I'm not suspicious of him now. The only time that wasn't true was when I was trying to clarify his role claim. Stop being obtuse.

[Hoopla]

I know that it's not the entirety of your argument, but I actually mustered up some motivation for this game and wrote a script to randomly distribute players. If the distribution was random the expected value for the number of all town groups is ~1.62. So keep that in mind when trying to use POE

Noted.

But that is assuming that the scum was distributed randomly which I'm not so sure about, and also assumes Reck doesn't reroll unfavourable draws if he is randomizing, which I'm also not sold on.

[Marquis]

A useless role like that is more likely to be given to a townie, I think.

[farside22]

Still waiting to understand why you aren't pushing on oversoul

I think chamber/Shinobi are better options. I kinda think Oversoul's claim seems town. A useless role like that is more likely to be given to a townie, I think.

Let's make sure I'm clear here.
You believe scum to be in each neighborhood.
The only 2 left from the original group I'm discussing is spy and oversoul.
You stated a town read on spy but your using oversoul's claim as what could be town because scum don't fake claim?
No seriously either you strongly feel scum in each neighborhood or you don't.
Every post is scum in each neighborhood, but you don't push the read.
Ie: your words do not match action.

[Hoopla]

No seriously either you strongly feel scum in each neighborhood or you don't.
Every post is scum in each neighborhood, but you don't push the read.

I feel like I've said it more than a dozen times that I believe it to be 2/1/1/0 or 1/1/1/1 with a strong preference for the first choice. Here, I will make it easier for you:

Oak

Bob

Desp
Hoopla
Marquis

Maple

Agar

Antihero

Majiffy

Shinobi

Pine

chamber

farside
Metal

mollie

Cedar

Oversoul

SpyreX

vezok
ZZZX

Green is town. Blue is my town reads.

I'm choosing chamber over the Shinobi/Antihero option because he ticks these boxes: only person I see as a genuine chance of being scum in that neighbourhood. One of a handful of players who have redirection abilities when I don't think Reck would give all those neighbourhood manipulation abilities to town. 4nxi3ty's D1 play sucked.

I'm not choosing Oversoul over chamber because the only box he ticks is "only person I see as a genuine chance of being scum in that neighbourhood". Nothing else really. His claim seems town to me, and I was reading his early play as town too.

Do you see why I am choosing chamber over Oversoul now? There is a decent chance there is one all town neighbourhood, so I'm not going to lynch on "only possible scum within that neighbourhood" alone.

[farside22]

Okay.

Something bothers me a bit....if it's 2/1/1/0 do you think there was scum in the group you were in? I noted you had no one highlighted in your neighborhood other the bob..
Last question do you think the vote analysis means anything?

[Metal Sonic]

Let's kill chamber since hoopla is power bussing for even more towncred

Or she is town and let's kills chamber anyway

[Hoopla]

Something bothers me a bit....if it's 2/1/1/0 do you think there was scum in the group you were in? I noted you had no one highlighted in your neighborhood other the bob..

Last question do you think the vote analysis means anything?

Our group is likeliest to have a second scum in it if it's 2/1/1/0. If it's 1/1/1/1 the game is almost solved and will be very difficult to lose.

Who's vote analysis? Spy's?

[SpyreX]

I don't see how you can turn around and go, "yeah this information doesn't prove anything, Metal could be scum," after you just had a hard townread on him.

I haven't been suspicious of Metal since his D1 stunt and I'm not suspicious of him now. The only time that wasn't true was when I was trying to clarify his role claim. Stop being obtuse.

This is the kind of thing that's driving me nuts (not you, shinobi). Its not an accident.

Also RL is going to beat me with a hammer this week. I will be very, very low activity.

[farside22]

Hoopla: it dawned on me you listed oversoul as scum recently and since changed that read do to day 1 read and claim. Both of those things happened in the game earlier. Please explain the earlier scum read on oversoul.

[Oversoul]

Why are you so focused with that scumread, but not pushing me, Farside?

[chamber]

Why are you so focused with that scumread, but not pushing me, Farside?

I don't like this post at all. It seems pretty obvious to me that farside is suspicious of hoopla because of her read (and the way it developed) on you. Why are you so focused on yourself?

[farside22]

Why are you so focused with that scumread, but not pushing me, Farside?

I'm more curious about hoopla's change in reads.
I mean I find you scum based on your lack of effort and calling people town on pretty much nothing. You even vote shin, was shown your case was wrong and you still sit on your vote.
I've stated this already and you know what I get from everyone thus far with saying this?
Crickets
Literally nothing from anyone. Usually the crickets signify to me I'm more likely wrong.
So I'm asking hoopla about the discrepancy she posted and why it changed.

[chamber]

I found your point interesting, I was just waiting for oversoul to respond and then got distracted by hoopla voting for me. He still really hasn't though has he?

[Metal Sonic]

i actually think oversoul claim is bs

it is negative utility


other towns get "useless" or "troll" abilities

but he gets neg utility

ah



never mind

all the town in hoopla neighborhood, 1 of them is town, go figure them out etc take our pick


who wants to engage spyrex on his shinobi deathread? i hope spyrex is right cause if he isnt it would be shame. more than my shit 'gambit'

[farside22]

I found your point interesting, I was just waiting for oversoul to respond and then got distracted by hoopla voting for me. He still really hasn't though has he?

Not that I recall. :/

[xRECKONERx]

Official Vote Count

Shinobi

(4): Desperado, SpyreX, Antihero, Oversoul

Hoopla

(4): Marquis, Shinobi, farside22, Metal Sonic

chamber

(1): Hoopla

Not Voting

(1): chamber

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

---

Antihero has been prodded.

[chamber]

Unless I'm going crazy that vote count is incredibly off from the way people have intended to move their votes.

[Desperado]

i think youre going crazy

[chamber]

I know that it's not the entirety of your argument, but I actually mustered up some motivation for this game and wrote a script to randomly distribute players. If the distribution was random the expected value for the number of all town groups is ~1.62. So keep that in mind when trying to use POE

Noted.

But that is assuming that the scum was distributed randomly which I'm not so sure about, and also assumes Reck doesn't reroll unfavourable draws if he is randomizing, which I'm also not sold on.

You're deciding whats unfavourable for reck though. 2/2/0/0 doesn't seem that unfavourable to me. I get the willies when people start resorting to setup speculation rather than scum reads. Your saving grace should be that you've been using your reads to select within the speculation, but that pointing to me mitigates things.

[Oversoul]

Why are you so focused with that scumread, but not pushing me, Farside?

I don't like this post at all. It seems pretty obvious to me that farside is suspicious of hoopla because of her read (and the way it developed) on you. Why are you so focused on yourself?

Using an onscreen keyboard for the time being. It is very cumbersome so please bear with me if my replies are short or otherwise lacking. I am trying to avoid any words with b or n. It is very difficult.

I am focused on myself because nothing else is truly happening, plus I always enjoy telling people they are wrong about me. I am waiting for more people to actually play the game (Marquis, Desp, Antihero) and give their thoughts to the rest of us.

I liked this post by you, Chamber. I felt it very townie and genuine.

What question are you and Farside wondering about? You want answers to why I am voting Shin over Hoopla? If you're both looking for consistency, I am afraid you have come to the wrong place.

Shin was a gut scum read based on how Bv ad Zivel both replaced out without doing very much for the game. I thought that was scummy but upon reflection I felt that Shin was putting a good foot forward against the read I plagued him with because of his predecessors. I also thought AGar, Anti (who has been lurking from this game it seems), Shinobi, and Majiffy were scum going into yesterday. Majiffy died, Agar flipped town, and Anti ended his stupid death tunnel on me after I proved the "track guilty" on me was nothing more than bad luck and blood lust which shows Anti is considering the game which I felt was townie.

I went to Hoopla over the flavor discrepancy and the weirdness of the role, but Hoopla has been giving a lot of content. I am not sure if she would do that as scum. I admit I was adept at reading Hoopla a year ago, not so much anymore.

I like Spyrex's logic on the wagon composition too. I had Spyrex as a weak town read with incompatible alignments if one of them is scum, possibly both town though. When he finally followed through with his bluster and his actions matched his words, I felt confident enough to sheep him, returning to my gut scum read on Shinobi.

I recommend everyone read's Toomai's replace out post in Mafia Discussion. Scum are more likely to replace out than town. I think we have that scum in Shinobi.

[farside22]

I read toomi replaced out, which was for newbie games. I will now point to the Austin powers game that had 3 replacing out and one was scum the other 2 were town.
Next I point to Zor!s last game where I don't remember the number if those that replaced out and only one was scum.

That said I'm going to reread shin for my own sanity.

[Oversoul]

You are right that was with newbies, but BV doesn't like being scum and Zivel was a newbie.

Plus, who replaces out of an unused PGO slot?