Serum & Steel 2: The Rise of Phyrexia--Endgame

[pieguyn]

I've been following the game and have actually read all of it

vote: chandra

iirc there were some posts ML made that looked town. on the other hand nothing Chandra did looked town all game and on a gut level I fucking hate how the wagon disbanded and moved onto ML. I wanna lynch Chandra and I'm p sure we can make it happen in 2 days.

reads list incoming

[pieguyn]

town:

2. PeregrineV
town as fuck compared to baseline, is generally being proactive.

3. Antihero
posting is relevant, productive, and I agree with almost all his lines of inquiry. is making logical plays I might be making if I was here - as a specific point his early game pushes on zmuffin and ffery made a shitton of sense and were in line with my own thoughts at the time. had genuine sounding frustration at several points.

5. pixel(fferyllt+Kazekirimaru)
ffery's lack of engagement is null bc of her RL. and despite that, she's been consistently in here, making pushes, and stating her opinions with an air of confidence that is trademark town ffery. Kaze also is stepping back and not leading the hydra (I only found a few Kaze posts and in particular his apathy when he gave his reads 498 looked town) which is a massive towntell bc Kaze loves scum.

6. Kagami
the right things are catching her attention. I liked the way she was focused on her serum ability at the start of the game, and on top of that I liked just about all her thoughts in 488. additionally, the way she's been consistently focusing on setup spec the entire game (re: mastin vig claim, push for a town phyrexian to claim 765, ravager from the last game), etc. reads as genuine. I especially liked the way she was pushing the synthing-town-isn't so bad angle as it was a p big misconception about the game and the way she was clearing it up felt genuinely town motivated.

10. Titus
has been town for p much every post here. in particular I liked her effort towards trying to work out mastin's flavor 709, and her skepticism towards universal zmuffin townread and the way she was trying to push Anti as serum counterwagon reads as genuine.

11. Trustworthy(Tammy+Shadoweh)
Tammy's body of work contains a lot of genuine emotion and her engagement is at a good enough level for now. in particular I liked her reaction to ffery starting from 272 and the followup on it 495, her reaction to ABR 332/334, her push on F-16 when he came into the game 1379 and the way they subsequently worked it out.

14. Vezokpiraka
his thought processes have generally been transparent and genuinely town motivated. as a specific point, his 680 read town as fuck and the progression from there, to the way he was trying to figure out exactly what role mastin had in 683, to his subsequent backoff read as genuine.

18. F-16_Fighting_Falconiamsteve
I agree with p much all of his reads when he caught up and his thought processes are p much exactly in line with the way I saw him develop his reads firsthand in quickness. his interaction with Tammy was holy fuck town - his paranoia made a shitton of sense and the way he backed off and tried to work everything out hit all the right notes I'd expect from F-16. his pessimism about Chandra lynch 1537 also makes a shitton of sense after all the lynches we pushed in tales of you and quickness were wrong, and was also similar to his thought processes in quickness where he consistently questioned the lynch he was on. his recent posting comes off transparent as fuck (e.g. 1836) and outlines his thought processes in a way scum F-16 can't fake.

null-town:

4. massive
his efforts re: setup speculation 733 738 come off as genuinely town motivated on a gut level - I'm not sure how many ppl know flavor but I tend to be biased towards ppl who fill in the demand for flavor knowledge.

9. Magister Ludi
I liked his frustration re: feeling behind and feel a lot of his posts make sense from this POV - e.g. 1802 complaining about unnecessary fluff. I also liked his efforts to at least attempt to organize and lead (1326, 1626) and get the feeling he's legitimately frustrated with the gamestate after no one's listening to him. that, and the composition of the wagon (all my nullreads + CN) and the way it rose as a counterwagon to CN makes me think it's a shit wagon

15. sharpest-knife-on-tree
is constantly reacting to pressure in an indignated and defiant way that suggests a town POV (e.g. 126, 461). besides that nothing he did seems particularly scummy and thoughts generally seem town motivated.

null:

1. Albert B Rampage
7. Tattletale
8. zMuffinMan <- I have a read but I'm keeping my cards close till I'm sure
12. mastin2
her extreme reaction to zmuffin read as town and strongly reminds me of the way she reacted to the entire shitstorm in tales of you - looking back at it, it's p low to resort to personal attacks to get out of suspicion as scum and I'm skeptical mastin would go that far. however, zmuffin said she would fake that.. will probably just sheep zmuffin's read bc I can't read her for shit.
13. Pander Bears(DeasVail+BipolarChemist)
19. Lord Mhork

scum:

17. Chandra Nalaar
of all their posts, there is literally nothing I can point to and say "this looks town" - I get an overwhelming sense of feigned content from all of it. all his pushes are bullshit pushes on easy targets (e.g. ML, Kagami, Tattletale). in particular, the trajectory on his Kagami push makes 0 sense - in 497 he says Kagami is town, then in 1137 it becomes "all around ew" - the only mention of Kagami in between was 1 post where he questions her 1131 and 2 posts where it's just him disagreeing with smth she says - not to mention he apparently thinks ML is scum at the same time, despite ML pushing Kagami really hard. it's complete fucking BS and there's no way it's town motivated thought.

[pieguyn]

tl;dr:

town: PeregrineV, Antihero, pixel, Kagami, Titus, Trustworthy, vezokpiraka, F-16_Fighting_Falcon
null-town: massive, Magister Ludi, Sharpest-knife-on-tree
null: everyone else
scum: Chandra Nalaar

jesus fuck that took too damn long to write

@F-16, ffery:

I think you're town. wanna work together?

[pieguyn]

if i were a vig i would make f16 so fucking dead

mind explaining why?

That is why we aren't giving you serum. He is obvtown.

That Chandra vote sucks Pie...Ceph's town.

talk to me about this. I don't think he's done anything town all game and I feel like all his pushes are bullshit pushes on easy targets. why do you think he's town?

[pieguyn]

<3
you'll have to deal with it for now. I'm not taking any chances at all with you

oh btw: how sure are you mastin would resort to personal attacks to get out of pressure as scum? I'm willing to go with your read but I keep getting hung up on that.

[pieguyn]

these:

you haven't been able to do this in past scum games

Well, I've gotten better since then at being scum.

i know you're doing stuff that you think you would do as town (like the switch-flipping stuff and a couple other things) but i know you know that some people look for these things in your posts (and maybe you think these are the things i am looking for, i dunno, they're not if you were hoping they are)

You were right, right up until the parenthesis. I of course know that I'm doing stuff that I know I'd do as town, but I also know that as scum I'd know this and do them anyway. I also know that people look for these things in my posting...but you've gravely,

gravely

miscalculated the way my scum mind operates if you actually think that I think you look for those things and would place my hope in them. Heck no I wouldn't rely on them. I know

darned

good and well what types of things you're looking for and none of what I've posted has been it. That's mainly because frankly, I haven't really bothered to do anything I'd really think would be what you're looking for. If my town self emerges in my posting, it emerges. If it doesn't, then it doesn't. I'm not going to force it out. It's there or it isn't there.

That being said, it seems to mainly not be there when interacting with you and some other players, but be there when interacting with others. Dunno why, exactly. Just seems to be, I dunno, general feeling.

i feel like i approached this game wrong and i should have just pretended i had a town read on you to see what you said

Frankly, if you townread me off of my posting, I would have cast a suspicious gaze your way. I would instantly be more cautious about my read. Your posting contains town elements outside of me, so I would conclude town eventually, but it would be much slower because the elements are not an instant signal (rather, they take time for me to discern not being scum faking the instant signal), and having a BSed townread on me would make me...call you out on having a BSed townread of me. Because bluntly, I knew that there shouldn't be a reason for YOU to be townreading me, so if you had, alarm bells would have been ringing.

so i am not paritcularly interested in an uphill battle D1 trying to get mastin lynched if there's someone else i think is scum who is a viable lynch

Well, you'll have more luck on me than you will on Chandra, given that I'm in stark opposition to that wagon.

Like, the sliver of doubt about my read on Chandra is enough that I'm not sure I can muster the will for a Mastin-gambit, but another 5% or so on my townread there and I will. (It's at 90% now.) So that should give you a bit of a ballpark figure for my position there: very strongly town, will fight the lynch, and think it to be a bad idea.

so just to be clear, your ideas for scum are a bunch of low-profile low-content players and possibly ffery-hydra? and everyone else looks town?

I'm sorry, but no words hold as much as these for my feelings of your jab, here.

Fuck you, Muffin. Seriously, fuck you. You can call me scum all you want. I won't bat an eye. Call me a fucking lurker hunter, and you can go fuck yourself.

iamsteve had five posts, minimal content, and was near the top of my town list. (I'm seeing more of the town F-16 so he's back up there.) massive has double that, but is still near the top of my town list, yet is being called scum for others for...yep, you guessed it, having low content. PHANTOM is exactly the same, near the top of my townlist yet having very little content. If my reads had anything.
ANY DAMN THING.
To do with activity.
Those reads would be massively different.

And it's not like higher-activity levels make for a higher read. Chandra's got one of the highest post counts in the game and is not even close to the top of my town list. pixel is as you yourself noted a minor scumread of mine. I was scumreading Mhork for ages yet look at his post count. (He's a townread now, butstill.) I could go on and on about this, but you get the idea. Activity has jacksquat to do with my reads. And no. Everyone else does not look town. I've made my thoughts here as fucking clear as they can be. SKOT I waffle on, a LOT. Kagami is similarly a read I've questioned a lot and even lean towards scum. Everyone else is in fact varying degrees of town, but guess what? This is a 19-player game, and that's six players (the four you mentioned plus Kagami plus SKOT) that are in my radar. So fuck yes I townread the others; that's my fucking job, not to have too many nulls or towns. In a game this size I'd be doing it wrong if I had 8 nulls/scums, and having half that in scumreads is RIGHT WHERE I AM SUPPOSED TO BE AT.

And the reasoning is the most important factor of all. The reasoning that you are ignoring. Activity has no fucking thing to do with any of my reads. Panda Bears is a scumread because this feels like scum-DV all over again, but more than that, the stances Pandar Pear has taken have looked higher scum. They look like they're being manipulative with their reads, and while their posting looks genuine, at the same time, counterintuitively in a paradox, it comes across as being flat and hollow. My read on Ludi is similarly not based on some bullshit activity tell; my stance on Ludi has been scum thanks to what he has done. And I don't give a damn if you think him to be an easy target; FUCK hunting for easy targets, I am scumreading him because I think he is scum, not because he is an "easy target". I haven't liked the content he's put forth, it feels faked, his stances have been horribad, and I simply don't think this is Ludi's townplay. And ABR is even stronger that way. This game is strong KOTOR-dejavu in that ABR is simply not playing town. He's done nothing, absolutely nothing, town, which is in stark contrast to the town-ABR I know. Even when ABR is wrong, I've seen him as town push his wrongness hard. So he's the closest damn thing I DO have to an activity-based scumtell read, but it's on ABR being ALBERT BITCHING RAMPAGE rather than on the act of having done jackshit the entire game.

So don't you fucking DARE call my reads fucking lurker-hunting.

like mastin's getting shitty with me for calling her a "lurker hunter" when what i was actually pointing out is that there's no substance behind her reads, it was just her calling some low content players scum and everyone else town.

JUST BECAUSE I DIDN'T EXPLAIN THE READ IN DETAIL DOES NOT MEAN THE DETAILS WEREN'T THERE. And fuck you for being this fucking dense. There should be no fucking way that you can see how you saying I was "calling some low content players scum" is accusing me of being a lurker hunter. When A LARGE FUCKING PART OF MY SCUMREADS ARE ON WHAT LITTLE CONTENT EXISTS FROM THE SLOTS. But for SOME fucking reason. For some fucking reason I can't even fathom.
You're actually fucking serious in thinking that "calling low-content players scum" does not equal calling me a lurker-hunter.
Damn straight I'm fucking pissed.

FUCK that being an excuse.
I don't fucking care about you having a scumread on me.
Literally give zero fucks about it.

But you're fucking disrespecting me and discrediting what I've done for the sake of that fucking scumread.
You have every right to call me scum.
You have no right. No fucking right. To shut down these reads.
LEAST OF ALL WHEN YOU YOURSELF CAN SEE SOME OF THEM.

I can live with you calling my reads done by scum. Natural extension of thinking I'm scum.
This shutting down of them?

No. Fuck no. I'm not going to let you bully me into shutting them down.

i keep reading mastin's posts, especially recent ones, and wondering why she doesn't want us to be masons

I WANT MORE THAN ANY FUCKING THING FOR US TO BE FUCKING MASONS.

But there is literally nothing I could deliberately do that would cause that.
Because anything I can deliberately fucking do as town is something I can fucking do as scum.
You KNOW this to be fucking true, zMuffinman.
You KNOW I am right on that.

But the one who is shutting things down is you.
Not me.

Because I have been fucking open as a fucking book about everything.
TRANSPARENT AS I CAN FUCKING POSSIBLY BE.
About literally every damn thing.

All my reads aren't pulled out of my ass; they've been implicitly been there and it just took 'til now for me to say most of the stuff I had already said explicitly, because explicitly, I thought there no need to elaborate, but have had that offer to give elaboration whenever possible throughout the whole fucking game. I've shown you where I've come from.

And you're more than free to call me scum for the elements you think are off.
But don't you fucking dare.
Don't you fucking DARE.
Shut down my reads.

if she were town, she'd be all over getting me to see where she's coming from

WHAT THE FUCKING HEEL DO YOU CALL THIS, ZMIFFINGMAN?!? ME HOLDING A BAKERY? FUCK NO. ITS IS ME, SHOWING YOU. WHERE. I. HAVE> BEEN. AND YOU.
ARE FHUJVCKING IGNORING ITL.

WHEN I CAN NOT SHOW MY FUCKING THOUGHTS ANY MORE CLEARLY THAN I ALREADY HAVE.
BEERFECTLY RANSTPARENT.
LITERALY. NO. WAY> TO. BE> A., BORE. FUCKING. MOEPN. BOOK. You can say that I"m scum being an open book.
Yes. You can. You can argue thant I'm scum who has shown my thoughts in a eepmt to shake ypou.

BUT IF YUOU FUCKINGS ERUIOUSLY BELIEVE.
FOR ONE GODDAMNED SECOND.
THAT MY THOUGFHTS ARE NOT FUCKING CLEAR.

THEN A LEGITIMMATE FUCK YOU, ZMUFINMAN.

it's not as much as I remember her doing this in tales of you but she's been snapping at ppl a lot recently - I feel like these posts still come from a similar mindset as they were coming from that game and idk if she'd resort to this as scum.

also, why is F-16 scum?

[pieguyn]

Fuck you, Muffin. Seriously, fuck you. You can call me scum all you want. I won't bat an eye. Call me a fucking lurker hunter, and you can go fuck yourself.

And fuck you for being this fucking dense.

both of these seem like personal attacks. am I missing smth

and why is F-16 scum? it's important

[pieguyn]

Chandra is your only scumread?

I can't decide what I want to do yet. I'm going to do some rereading tonight.

yeah

I'm not too concerned tho bc I've found I generally do better in large games using POE than focusing on scumreads. when you finish rereading, talk to me about massive and SKOT

[pieguyn]

Regarding Mastin. So, I initially found it odd that he was so sure Ceph is town and when I made a case against him, he almost threatened me saying that he'd be more willing to lynch my slot over Ceph's. But then Muffin started pushing Ceph and he relented and listened to Muffin's point of view. Which makes no sense because Muffin didn't really provide a ton of reasoning for his read and just briefly outlined his points, agreeing with half my case and disagreeing with the rest of it. It feels like Mastin is playing her game to Muffin and is trying to keep Muffin at bay.

agree with this

the main thing giving me pause re: mastin is the way she reacted to zmuffin. at the end of the day, I don't think she'd pull shit like that as scum and part of me thinks she'd do smth like this as town too even though there's literally no town motivation for it

do you think mastin would think the types of attacks she made here count as personal attacks?

LordMhork: I feel that some of his posting felt genuine especially the part where he is so sure that ABR is scum and is doing everything he can to push that lynch.

this is the main thing making me think mhork is town atm. however, there's nothing unfakeable in there and besides that I don't remember anything he did. (plus at this point I already have a shitton of townreads so I wanna be careful about writing ppl off)

I hardly read any of the posts in too many heads (especially after I got replaced) so I don't have any thoughts re: that.

As for ABR himself, I outlined my thoughts to Ffery earlier but I can't really follow what he is trying to do. ABR as town usually needs time to get into the game. I remember playing a game where he said that early game is essentially exaggerated pushes with little reasoning and it is only later that you can do a lot of analysis. I wanted to wait and see what he comes up with as the game progressed and he's just bandwagoned and contributed little. IDK what to make of him yet. I don't think ABR and Mhork are both scum though.

I fucking hated his opening (it was completely anti-town and I didn't get the impression he was trying to legitimately solve the game), but based on what ppl were saying about him I think it might be his style and I wanna give him some room bc I liked his CN vote.

What do you think of DV's posting as compared to Tales? Oh, about Ceph, one thing that made me back off is that I feel he as scum would totally take advantage of the misunderstanding between me and Tammy.

I don't have any thoughts on DV. I don't remember anything he did the entire game and there was nothing he did that seemed especially town motivated or scum motivated. the only reason I caught him in tales was POE (I kept getting hung up bc his posting seemed genuine).

that doesn't mean shit. there's no reason he has to do the same thing as scum every time and I don't wanna write him off as town just bc of that - and on the other hand there is scum motivation in deliberately playing the opposite way you did the last time.

[pieguyn]

@zmuffin:

why aren't you wary of me saying I'd be willing to sheep your mastin read? I'm sure you said you generally get wary of ppl who sheep you, but I didn't see anything like that here.

btw, I also wanna hear your thoughts re: this:

do you think mastin would think the types of attacks she made here count as personal attacks?

[pieguyn]

I fucking hate the idea of an ABR lynch right now. this is the 2nd time now a wagon on CN has been attempted and it's been derailed onto someone else (ML, now ABR) both times.

in particular, mastin is a person of interest who keeps voting on counterwagons to CN (and it makes a shitton of sense given mastin is generally averse to bussing), but that's for later. I'm only lynching ABR as compromise - ABR ~might~ be scum, but based on the way the wagons are I highly doubt it at this point and I fucking hate everything about this lynch.

@Titus:

I think your points on CN are rather shit. every single one of them makes sense as scum WK'ing - it makes no sense to write someone off bc he defended a lot of ppl - in particular 1892 seems like the kind of thing someone might deliberately fuck with as scum to gain towncred and fool ppl and it makes sense he'd pull smth like that when he's about to be lynched. what makes you think he's not just trying to WK everyone as scum?

[pieguyn]

@zmuffin:

idgaf if you "don't care". plz answer my question:

why aren't you wary of me saying I'd be willing to sheep your mastin read? I'm sure you said you generally get wary of ppl who sheep you, but I didn't see anything like that here.

[pieguyn]

I feel like

me

asking

you

this question should have set off an alarm or 3.

meh. I didn't think it was too unreasonable of a question considering I usually have more than 1 scumread, plus I read it as asking for confirmation (and I have a strong townread on you)

why do you think CN is town?

You're not the first one to have PV as a stronger townread than I expected, thus not the first I've had to ask "why so strongly", meaning that it's quite possible your answer is redundant, but I keep on forgetting why PV's that strongly town so I might as well ask again; town, sure, but why THIS strongly town, pie?

on a body of work level, he's been proactive all game and his thoughts have been consistently town motivated

I'll pull up specific shit if anyone bothers me bc lazy and I'm having aa lot of trouble articulating a lot of it, but off hte top of my head I liked the way he was speculating around flavor re: whether scum needed fakeclaims or not.

[pieguyn]

also did i say this when i was scum?

iirc you said it in a dead QT somewhere

is there any specific reason you don't care about this particular case, or is it just apathy?

[pieguyn]

@Piegyn, really, just whiteknighting? That's just basically saying fuck you I'm scumreading CN regardless. That's a pretty rock solid towncase on Chandra. Hell it's so solid even obvscum ABR got off, so I doubt you're scum but you're just being stupid.

no it's fucking not and if you're town you need to absolutely not fall for this shit at a time like this.

as a specific point, vezok wasn't in any danger of getting lynched the entire game, so there is no reason scum CN wouldn't say smth like 1599 in order to try to look town - and given vezok's playstyle, it makes him a prime WK target for scum, so there is plenty of scum motivation in defending him. the same thing goes with everything else - you claim it's town motivated, but none of it affected anything and at the end of the day all it did was make him look town.

there is literally nothing hard to fake or even extremely town motivated there

[pieguyn]

I'm not interested in lynching massive except in order to prevent NL. I still think his mhork ah-ha 738 was town as fuck (although I'm kind of biased bc I don't know flavor)

I still wanna lynch CN. anyone up for a CN lynch?

[pieguyn]

synth: pander bears

[pieguyn]

i think mastin is still technically VLA til deadline which makes mastin a good lynch actually

I can't tell if this is serious or not

if it is I'd also be up for this

what are your thoughts on massive's behavior re: mhork? (738, 793)

Unvote
Unsynth

Less than 24 hours left. I'm against running up lots of people to claim so early, we already have several people claiming parts of their roles.

Flavor speculation is such an easy thing to hide behind in this game, we really don't need post on post about it. In addition, Scum guaranteed have fakeclaims.

there's a difference behind hiding behind flavor speculation and using it to scumhunt

not many ppl are v familiar with the flavor. so what's the motivation in posting a flavor-based case in order to push a mislynch as scum? hardly anyone would follow it, since no one would know what he's talking about.

instead it came off as genuine - it's possible he was trying to gain towncred, but it's not smth I'd expect scum to think about

[pieguyn]

793

794

[pieguyn]

what are your thoughts on massive's behavior re: mhork?

since 794 is a carry-on to 738, i am assuming you are just asking whether scum would ever point to something like that in that fashion

here's the thing. scum almost certainly have fake-claims of some sort (at least flavour claims). you know this, i know this, anyone who plays mafia should know this. so pushing someone based on flavour speculation that requires NOT ONLY scum not have fake claims but also that scum is dumb enough to randomly go, "oh hey, you know what, i'm going to make it obvious i'm scum! AH DURRRRRRRRRRRRR" seems at best ill-thought and at worst completely contrived

i understand why you think it's town. i could potentially see it as town, maybe, if i squint really hard. but if that's the only reason you're calling him town, then meh

it's not just the fact he did it, it's the way he went about it. I don't think it's scum BS bc it's not smth I'd expect scum to think about - I don't get the feeling scum would be looking for ways to incriminate random ppl via flavor - and he was visibly excited about pointing out smth he thought might have been a breakthrough.

it is the only thing making me think he's town tho and I'm starting to feel kind of meh about it

Fiery pie y u ignore me?

I'm not sure if a pander lynch is productive or even possible at this point. in order t oget the most out of the mechanic we'd have also have to move the synth wagon somewhere else, plus pander might end up being metal. plus, the last fucking thing we need is more chaos at DL - I kind of don't wanna bother and leave it for tomorrow.

what are your thoughts on massive's behavior re: mhork (739/794)?

[pieguyn]

nvm

vote: pander bears

[pieguyn]

if we lynch pander bears I'd be fine with synthing ABR just in case he's scum lying about not being metal or some shit like that

where are all the synth wagons at?

brb looking

[pieguyn]

synth: ABR

[pieguyn]

vote: chandra

I'll pull up quotes later but tl;dr: Titus was hard defending Chandra from me all fucking game. the way the wagons were, I'm also inclined to think Chandra was a scum wagon based on the way counterwagons kept popping up (iirc Titus was another person who was consistently pushing counterwagons).

the way ABR got lynched over pander bears was bullshit. there is literally nothing town about 2343 and all I get from it is scum trying to make one final appeal before they get lynched. incidentally Chandra was one of the ppl pushing the angle that post looked town.

on reread I got weird gut vibes from mastin's reads list. I remember in AOT thinking if her posts were rock-solid and logical but felt forced she's scum and I'm inclined to think the same thing here.

off the top of my head, Titus' massive shitstorm w/ zmuffin makes me think zmuffin town (plus, my read on him was a town read).

atm I'm looking for scum in {mastin, chandra, Tattletale, pander bears, massive, Mhork}. I have townreads on everyone else.

[pieguyn]

also iirc Titus and Ceph said in the ASOIAF scum QT bussing was overrated and that buddying was more effective (correct me if I'm wrong)

which makes CN scum make a shitton of sense given the way D1 played out

[pieguyn]

in the townpile

[pieguyn]

if i were a vig i would make f16 so fucking dead

That is why we aren't giving you serum. He is obvtown.

That Chandra vote sucks Pie...Ceph's town.

I'll respond to why Chandra is town tomorrow.

F16, do you have visions?

Ok time for the Chandra case. Chandra was a townread from her opening post.

The first post she a) defends someone... that's important because scum have no problem sitting back and letting the wagon develop. Taking a stance early to defend Vezok suggests town or scumpartners. Given she then sticks her neck out to chainsaw on behalf of Vezok, that's pretty fucking town. If Vezok ever flips scum, people would auto lynch Chandra.

102 is another town indication. Scum know I am very particular on word choice as a small word can convey a totally different meaning. Scumphir could literally rile me up for pages and derail the game. Instead, he admits we were having a quibble on semantics.

679 is highlighting town Mastina. Again, scum tend not to be bound so hard to townreads.

718 is stopping incorrect assumptions from going through regarding how to interpret claims.

1164 is challenging zmuffin to tear her up via PbPA. Players with something to hide rarely do this. Knowing muffin is an expert at scum only doubles the risk. Expert scum players MUST be able to argue rather well even if not fully understood.

1599 admits to constantly scumreading Vezok despite his play. Scum rarely attack their own credibility regarding players in this manner. It's not effective for their wincon.

1892 demolishing the counterwagon is not something scum do.



Generally, the pissing match between Chandra and Mhork usually comes from town. If scum, given the number of townreads she has, I would expect her to keep Mhork as scum. Instead, she fights for him being town after that point.

More detail should be there but I'm tired as fuck. It still should be obvious that Chandra is town from my case.

@Piegyn, really, just whiteknighting? That's just basically saying fuck you I'm scumreading CN regardless. That's a pretty rock solid towncase on Chandra. Hell it's so solid even obvscum ABR got off, so I doubt you're scum but you're just being stupid.

"Peregrine is proactive and that makes him town.
Chandra is scum."
-pie 2014

I get that distinction. Pie is wrong on you, but PV has had a limited timeframe from which to post. So his proactivity counts for more to Pie.

Look at Gundam Seed. This is not scum Pie.

I'm not interested in lynching massive except in order to prevent NL. I still think his mhork ah-ha 738 was town as fuck (although I'm kind of biased bc I don't know flavor)

I still wanna lynch CN. anyone up for a CN lynch?

Wow... really? Give it a rest Chandra's obvious town.

the first post was literally

right after I came into the game

. the town case she posted was rather shit and I already outlined the reasons - when pressured about it and when I provided evidence it was wrong, she proceeded to ignore it and then continued being defensive as fuck trying to shut down my push the minute I tried to start it again.

chandra is obvscum. anyone wanna wagon chandra with me?

[pieguyn]

I'm thinking about the way that Mastin defended Titus and me from ABR? I think when ABR said we could be scum buddies. I'm not convinced I like her explanation. The narrative feels too constructed. She was saying how we demonstrated paranoia and then acceptance. At that point I had not shown any in thread paranoia of Titus, so I'm not sure what Mastin was referring to on my end. Titus did a good job of looking paranoid at first though.

agree with this

do you see any parallels to her defense of BRO in AOT? cos I'm thinking back to AOT where she defended BRO and kthx "I've seen this role before, and they're confirmed town" when their role was a role pitoli made up to fit the flavor (aka she was blatantly BS'ing in order to defend her scum partner). in both cases she was defending someone based on role info and she was reaching to come up with smth that ~sounds~ believable, but when you think about it actually falls apart - i feel like this comes from the same mindset as that

[pieguyn]

I thought it was a good point though. DV prefers being scum and his activity being far, far lower than in Tales could point to him being town. Also, the level of engagement and manipulation in Tales was off the charts. Also, remember when I accused him in Tales, he OMGUSed like crazy, tried to garner sympathy for himself, and took great care to create a "poor DV" character that everyone would take pity on and his reaction to being seriously wagoned didn't hit those same notes. He reminded me much more of Welcome to Swagtown where he townread me when I wagoned him and seemed a lot more cool towards his lynch. Did you feel like it fit his scumgame in Tales?

idk. looking at it without regard to meta, that post isn't at all hard to fake, so I wouldn't put it past him to be manipulating his meta as scum. I'll look at swagtown sometime later when I'm not lazy tho

I also think there's not much of a difference in the underlying motivation - the overall tone comes across as ATEy and I thought it came from a similar mindset of DV trying to gain sympathy for himself.

I don't have any thoughts on whether it fits tales of you. my read on him in the end was POE and I didn't develop much of a read on his actual play.

what are your thoughts on Titus' defense of Chandra?

[pieguyn]

Kagami is ignoring the thread and Titus ignored her.

I have no idea whether I agree with Ludi's case from yesterday as I don't remember what it said.

you were IN xenosaga where Kagami got wagoned for p much the exact reason you're pointing out here and was town. why do you think it'd be different here?

I'm not sure how you're trying to read me here. What would you expect from me if I were town here?

it's not a personal read so idk what you'd do as town. the point is, on a general level your response lacked town motivation and had a lot of possible scum motivation.

btw this question doesn't have any town motivation either and it feels like a bullshit scum question. you just asked me what I'd expect to see from you-town on a personal level, despite the fact that I've already said I don't have any experience with your play, while at the same time thinking I'm town. if you think I'm town what the hell is the point of this question? I don't believe you thought I could legitimately answer this and I feel like you're trying to smokescreen me.

[pieguyn]

re: flavor cop: generally what happens is the flavor is alignment indicative, but scum has safeclaims in order to subvert it. that allows for a role that's almost as strong as a cop but way more flexibility (e.g. flavor godfathers, false positives) in a way that doesn't screw up the rest of the setup. given the phyrexia/mirrodin flips I'd assume that's the case here.

this also means there's almost certainly a flavor godfather running around (otherwise it's entirely pointless to put a flavor cop instead of a cop), but I don't think it's zmuffin based on my reads

serum: antihero

[pieguyn]

@mastin:

why is Kagami scum?

also

Forced, little bit. (We've been over this.) Rock-solid and logical?

Since when?

I mean, don't get me wrong, I'd absolutely love to have some good points, good insight, good reasoning and whatnot, but I haven't really thought myself to have any. Where are you seeing it?

is it just me or is this literally

the exact same way you reacted to this in AOT?

idk if it means anything, but really

[pieguyn]

I do not assume one scum and one town. I assume both being town.

question.

if you by principle assume one scum/one town, why did you have to go a huge tangent about Tammy and Titus faking paranoia about each other, and claim they were only "99.99%" town?

if you generally write all linked roles off as town, there's no need to even have that thought process in the first place. I don't see what town thought process takes "all linked roles = town", and then concludes that the reason they're town is bc there was a genuine sounding trajectory re: the role, as opposed to the role itself. it doesn't make any sense whatsoever and all I get is that your explanation re: paranoia was scum BS'ing (and it also makes sense if you were deliberately trying to avoid doing the same thing you did in AOT).

also:

@mastin:

why is Kagami scum?

[pieguyn]

If there are parallels, please draw them more carefully for me. I don't really remember why we lynched Kagami that game, I was scum so I didn't really care.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

tl;dr: Kagami basically lurkfucked and was disengaged all game and everyone thought she was scum bc of it and she got lynched D2. she's doing the same thing in this game except I see more town motivated analysis here than there (which should make her more likely to be town, not less).

actually I just remembered smth. hold on a sec

[pieguyn]

Going to dump thoughts. I haven't carefully read some of the longer posts, but am otherwise caught up.

In light of the what's been added to the rules, I'm probably a poor choice for serum any time soon. I would guess that my ability is likely only effective near the end of the game.

On players:

I think chandra's comment on trustworthy is likely correct. That one post reads very sincerely to me, and I don't find the others especially scummy. Trustworthy is probably town.

This is almost certainly town mastin. The brand of emotional appeal here, at least from my experience, is exclusive to town mastin. It would also bea low-blow to bring in mental troubles as an excuse for less substantive posting as scum, and I think mastin's above that.

Titus's activity and engagement is town, but she's no 99%. Her position has featured many easy stances. If I were scum, I'd be all over "not synthing is stupid" (because it is). "Let's lynch the policy lyncher" and "XXX, contribute more" are also fairly easy positions. I have her at slightly town of null.

Vezok is probably town, if only for the self-serum vote. I don't see vezok as the kind of scum that would go for ballsy town-points.

I see pixel has me in the town group based on my one post O_O. The ferry reads list has some glaring oddities to it, though, which feel a little bold for scum. Tentative town for pixel.

ABR's thirst for hydra blood is silly, but I don't see that as especially alignment indicative.

I have a theory about the gamestate that implies peregrin is town, but I'd rather not elaborate.

Ludi's post is wrong, but indicates he's probably not the neutral party. We should synth the second scummiest player. If the lynchee turns out to be metal and didn't say so, I suspect he'll be taken care of overnight.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Pander Bears

serum: vezok

synth: SKOT

I don't see scum Kagami being skeptical of Titus early game when she could have just townread her and moved on. plus, in hindsight, these points were p fucking solid - I don't see any reason for her as scum to bother pointing this out.

k, going to get into this.

Firstly, did the titus claim ever get clarified? If I understand it correctly:
-Titus knows trustworthy's role (or is it flavor?).
-Titus believes that this means trustworthy is town.
-This knowledge did not require serum.

Alright, read through TW and titus enough to think that trustworthy is town, but titus is not confirmed to be. I don't think this role could possibly be effectively masons and I would not be at all surprised if nati put it in the game specifically to mislead.

what's the scum motivation for scum Kagami to outright SAY there's no way Titus' role could be a mason and that it was a misleading role? scum having a pseudo-conftown is a huge benefit to them and there's no reason for Kagami to bother risking completely blowing their cover - and even if she was doing it for towncred, there were prob other things she could have commented on instead of outright calling Titus in order to look town.

Kagami is town

[pieguyn]

mastin how can you possibly think Kagami is scum after her interactions with Titus

I want to think you're town bc I keep misreading you. but this is complete fucking BS. I can't ever townread you with a bullshit scumread like that, especicially when it's literally the only accurate way I know of to catch you-scum.

same with you CN

this feels like a scum designated mislynch and I don't believe either of you actually believe Kagami is scum

[pieguyn]

what the actual fuck

I post a towncase for her not being mafia and your reaction is, rather than reconsidering said read, saying "owait maybe she's 3p"?

and if you really believed that, WHY didn't you mention ANYTHING about her being 3p

in your entire catchup?

like did you really post this:

Updated. Note that Kagami wasn't really bumped up. Just that I think Kagami unlikely scum with massive AND Panda Bears, yet I think both Panda Bears and massive are scum.

but not even have any thoughts about her being 3p at the time, but then suddenly when I push you about it you come up with that? if you were legitimately skeptical about whether she made sense as scum with anyone else, I would expect you to think about this possibility sooner. as it is this seems like you just made it up as an excuse.

[pieguyn]

Not necessarily scum, but gut + Ludi's case +a little bit the Titus read +POE = near bottom of readslist.

so let me get this straight

1. you agreed with Ludi's case,
2. Ludi's case basically consisted of Kagami being a giant lurkfuck and not doing anything,
3. despite the fact

you outright ADMITTED D1 you had misread Kagami previously in xenosaga, where she was basically just lurking and not doing anything?

also is it any coincidence all this happened to come up right when ppl werestarting to get suspicious of Kagami?

opportunistic as fuck

[pieguyn]

vote: mastin

fwiw, I think CN is scum too

[pieguyn]

I didn't say I agreed with Ludi's case. I said that I liked it.

@mastin:

why is Kagami scum?

Not necessarily scum, but gut +

Ludi's case

+a little bit the Titus read +POE = near bottom of readslist.

"why is Kagami scum"
"reasons .... LUDI'S CASE ... more reasons"

I'm done

[pieguyn]

1. you agreed with Ludi's case,

btw to expand on this

here's a hint: there's no way in fuck she as town actually agreed with Ludi's case in the first place. the first point in said case

1. Constant hinting of inside information that seems above and beyond what would be accessible to someone also with a town role pm. In addition a curious fixation on the neutral party. Of her 24 posts, 6 (for 25%) contain the word 'neutral'.

is actually a p major sign of Kagami's town game and she's experienced enough to know this. and regardless, most of the 3p analysis Kagami did had a shitton of town motivation (e.g. bringing up it's not necessarily a bad thing to synth town D1). it's complete fucking BS. she's just sheeping someone who looks like they have a case in order to take advantage of all the suspicion being thrown Kagami's way.

[pieguyn]

I liked Ludi's case. Meaning that Ludi's case influenced my own read. That doesn't mean I agreed with it entirely. It means it contributed to my read on Kagami being what it is. Gut, a little bit the Titus read, and POE all contributed to the read as well, far FAR moreso than the Ludi case which isn't perfect given other factors. Doesn't change the fact that Ludi's case still contributed.

Like I said. You're saying I agreed with the Ludi case. I didn't. I liked it. It contributed. I'm not sure how to explain that any further if you don't get the difference between liking something and agreeing with it. Because, well...liking something and agreeing with it are entirely separate things, and I explicitly like it but don't necessarily agree with it all. Best way I can think of to describe it is...it emphasizes the already-existing gut feeling. That being, even if every point on the literal surface were to be wrong, it might have picked up on the truth all the same, as a right-for-the-wrong-reasons type deal. I liked the case. I can't exactly describe why I did. I just did. And as a result, it influenced the read. It just did. I can't explain it better than that.

LMFAO

this is literally just a bullshit excuse mastin made up to keep her story straight. there's no fucking way anyone can possibly think "this case might be onto something", while disagreeing with everything in the case. she just made this up in order to try to justify her blatantly contradicting herself.

also:

Where you latch onto a completely-innocuous thing that I've done, and are blowing it out of proportion to be something that absolutely MUST come from a scuMastin and absolutely COULD NOT come from a town me because surely it's some important tell and not just exactly what I said it was which you're insisting isn't what I'm saying it was.

this is a blatant misrep. my reason for her being scum has literally nothing to do with any kind of "important tell" (or any meta at all besides the amt of experience w/ Kagami).

more mastin votes

[pieguyn]

also I don't buy that bullshit re: "if a wagon on Kagami happened right now I wouldn't join it" either. it feels like she just set up for it as soon as I started pushing her in order to look better.

[pieguyn]

Vote: Sharpest Knife

Only 246 Titus posts, but still a treasure trove of info.

why SKOT?

[pieguyn]

@F-16:

what do you think of mastin's Kagami read and her bullshit excuse that she "liked Ludi's case, but didn't agree with it"?

[pieguyn]

@ Pieguy, how does your Mastin scumread affect your read on Pander Bears?

it doesn't. I do agree if mastin is scum the way mastin is pushing PB makes them prob town (although it could just be her manipulating her meta), but after AOT I'm not writing anyone off as town based on associatives before the flip.

Re: Mastin liking Ludi's case, I think Mastin was talking about Ludi being town for the case as opposed to agreeing with it. There are a lot of times when I read cases and get a read on the casemaker as opposed to the target. I still think Mastin could be scum but it is mostly through POE and there are a couple of ways in which I feel his approach to the game is different from Tales. His reads aren't controversial or make waves which was how his Tales reads came across - for instance initially scumreading Titan and me. The one read I felt was controversial was Pixel and I still want to know how Mastin came to townread them.

that's explicitly not what it was. mastin outright said Ludi's case made her think Kagami was scum even though she disagreed with it

Yeah, which is exactly what I said.

I liked Ludi's case. Meaning that Ludi's case influenced my own read. That doesn't mean I agreed with it entirely. It means it contributed to my read on Kagami being what it is. Gut, a little bit the Titus read, and POE all contributed to the read as well, far FAR moreso than the Ludi case which isn't perfect given other factors. Doesn't change the fact that Ludi's case still contributed.

Like I said. You're saying I agreed with the Ludi case. I didn't. I liked it. It contributed. I'm not sure how to explain that any further if you don't get the difference between liking something and agreeing with it. Because, well...liking something and agreeing with it are entirely separate things, and I explicitly like it but don't necessarily agree with it all. Best way I can think of to describe it is...

it emphasizes the already-existing gut feeling. That being, even if every point on the literal surface were to be wrong, it might have picked up on the truth all the same, as a right-for-the-wrong-reasons type deal.

I liked the case. I can't exactly describe why I did. I just did. And as a result, it influenced the read. It just did. I can't explain it better than that.

besides that, I agree with you about the way she's forming reads - I'm not sure it's alignment indicative but it's smth to keep in mind. what do you think about the way mastin keeps saying Kagami/Titus interactions make Kagami look like scum? bc I completely disagree and I feel like she's doing the same thing she did in AOT where she basically kept trying to downplay and cover up all the obvtown stuff she did in order to push a mislynch on her.

.........hold on a second

[pieguyn]

mastin how can you possibly think Kagami is scum after her interactions with Titus

It's specifically Kagami's interactions with Titus that are why I've got that doubt.

But as I said--if Kagami were to be not town, right now I'd think 3p. And while 3p is probably scum, 3p that just shot mafia-scum is 3p worth not hunting for on D2. Meaning, scumhunting. Meaning, lynching groupscum. Meaning, looking at massive/Panda and how both were voting each other yesterday but after Titus's death have had an entire reversal.

I can't ever townread you with a bullshit scumread like that, especicially when it's literally the only accurate way I know of to catch you-scum.

It...really isn't? I mean...scuMastin's best weapon is flexibility. BSing reads is a last resort, since honesty (and the flexibility therein) is her best weapon.

As for Kagami--not voting Kagami for a dang-good reason.
MIGHT synth Kagami, but I don't see myself lynching Kagami any time even remotely soon.

I post a towncase for her not being mafia and your reaction is, rather than reconsidering said read, saying "owait maybe she's 3p"?

...Yeah?

and if you really believed that, WHY didn't you mention ANYTHING about her being 3p

in your entire catchup?

Because the thought didn't occur to me 'til after I had finished my catchup? Like...I have a bad gut read there. The Titus interactions don't make me all warm and fuzzy. Kagami just has felt off to me the entire game. But I don't think Kagami is scum with massive/Panda Bears, both of which I am scumreading. So if Kagami's scum, then it'd be 3p scum.

Doesn't mean that Kagami is 3p scum, just that if Kagami's scum, that's what I think Kagami is. And because I don't think Kagami is groupscum...I'm dropping Kagami from consideration. Could be 3p scum. Could be town. Unlikely to be groupscum. Thus, because I'm hunting for groupscum, dropped from scumlist. Not sure what's hard to follow about that.

like did you really post this:

Updated. Note that Kagami wasn't really bumped up. Just that I think Kagami unlikely scum with massive AND Panda Bears, yet I think both Panda Bears and massive are scum.

but not even have any thoughts about her being 3p at the time?

Stopping ya there, because that's when I was beginning to first have the thought. So, no. I did not post that and have no thoughts of Kagami being 3p; I posted that and was beginning to have the thoughts of Kagami being 3p.

look at bolded. at the start of mastin's catchup she thought Kagami was scum citing Titus interactions as a reason (also citing a case that is p much completely wrong in the process, but this doesn't matter here). then she supposedly transitioned into thinking Kagami was 3p, but in the 2nd post again cites Titus interactions as a reason for thinking Kagami is scum.

the problem?

she is STILL citing Titus interactions as a reason to think Kagami is 3p scum - despite the fact that TITUS INTERACTIONS ONLY APPLY TO KAGAMI BEING GROUP SCUM.

this is smth she blatantly made up after the fact and there is no fucking way this read progression comes from town. mastin is scum

[pieguyn]

If the Mirrodin Win condition was posted with the "fakeclaims", then there is no need to post it.

this part is incorrect. it makes sense to post that from a scum POV as a way of saying you're town.

I think I might be done defending mastin :/

what does this mean?

[pieguyn]

synth: SKOT

[pieguyn]

Having read the original Mirrodin novels, this is kinda super important.

this feels like bullshit and I don't believe you actually think this is a good reason for trying to derail the mastin wagon

1. do you srsly believe mastin couldn't have got that as a fakeclaim?
2. how did you go from "being persuaded to think mastin is scum and not wanting to stick up for her anymore" to here? if you weren't sure about her before, it doesn't make sense to suddenly attempt to clear her based on flavor.

btw, did you ever explain your townread on mastin? I can't find it anywhere

[pieguyn]

phone posting right now but this is some grade a bullshit. i will never ever say something couldnt possibly be a fakeclaim and i didnt even so much as say it made mastin more likely to be town, i said it was an important detail, which it is

if you weren't thinking mastin was town what the hell were you trying to accomplish pointing it out? I don't understand what the motivation for that is.

not to mention, if you're town reading me, a post like this shouldn't exist. what's the point of calling my post "grade a bullshit" when all I did was misinterpret your post?

[pieguyn]

Yeah, sadly agreed here. Was prepared to fight back on mastin's progression from "totally town massive" to "distancing himself from Pander massive" (which by the way, Pander starting distancing himself from me back on D1, so kinda moots that argument that the Titus flip was involved, and I would still be happy to vote Pander) to "Pander/massive 40% scumbuddies" to just outright saying "Pander/massive" like we're a hydra, but unless one of the Magic flavor peeps are on mastin's scum team, that's hard to ignore.

this heavily implies the flavor mastin claimed is unequivocally and deterministically town

so (I assume you're familiar with the flavor) if you didn't think mastin was town why the fuck were you calling attention to it?

and under that context, your out of place reaction to me calling you on it makes me think you knew about this and are now just trying to cover it up. what were you trying to accomplish by doing that?

[pieguyn]

My town read on you evaporates a little bit every time you continue to be 100% completely certain I'm scum. Townies have doubt.

bullshit. if you really believed this, why didn't you say anything re: my mastin push?

not to mention I'm way more confident about mastin scum than you scum

and looking back on it, you said you were being persuaded to think mastin is scum. did you really see my push on her and, instead of thinking I'm scum for not showing any doubt, have the EXACT OPPOSITE reaction?

Please, keep assuming I'm a terrible scum player when you have watched me not being a terrible scum player.

lmao

pieguyn: There probably isn't a lyncher in this setup, and Phantom wasn't scum, so assuming there isn't a mechanic allowing you and phantom to have different role PMs I guess you have to be town

how did you go from
1. townreading me (despite the fact I was pushing you since back on D1)
2. only having doubts about it due to the way I push ppl
to
3. "the only reason I'm town is bc of PHANTOM"?

this isn't a natural read progression and I feel like you're trying to scare me off by threatening me with a scumread.

[pieguyn]

plz unpack this a little.

Ceph said he was starting to be persuaded on a mastin lynch. then he does what could very easily be a subtle attempt at derailing the mastin wagon via flavor (after knowing said flavor would make mastin town). if he thought mastin might be scum, there isn't much of a purpose in doing that.

then when I call him on it he suddenly gets defensive as fuck and OMGUS'es me over it. his reason was "townies have doubt", despite saying absolutely NOTHING when I was pushing mastin and despite the fact that I'm infinitely more confident of mastin scum than CN-scum.

personally I think it's bc Ceph and mastin are both scum, but it's scummy in its own right

[pieguyn]

I'm fine with synthing Tattletale instead of SKOT.

idk who I wanna serum. I'll figure it out later

[pieguyn]

ITT mastin "likes" what I'm saying while disagreeing with it so that I think she did the same thing with ML's case

[pieguyn]

You say this latter part like it's a point,

when you have yet to say anything about me except how I'm such obvious scum every time you post

, so how on earth am I supposed to know you have even a shadow of doubt/"doubt" about me being scum? As far as I can tell you manufactured that difference in response to my position.

I've been pushing a mastin lynch over a lynch on you p much all of today. did you completely miss that?

not to mention if I was supposedly "100% sure" you were scum I wouldn't bother trying to get answers from you, on the off chance I'm wrong about my read on you.

bolded is a blatant misrep. I've outlined the reasons for you being scum at several points (interactions w/ Titus, behavior re: mastin wagon, pushes on Kagami/me, nothing genuinely town motivated to make me second guess said read).

You haven't been pounding on her to the exclusion of having any other content like you have with me

this is bullshit. first off, my push on mastin was p fucking noticeable. there's no way anyone can read this game and NOT notice the way I was pushing her. second, I have lots of other content besides my pushes on him/mastin, so him saying I don't have any other content is a blatant lie.

The fuck is wrong with this progression?
1. Pie is town (because of phantom)
2. Pie is town because of phantom but I have minor issues with his posts
3. Pie is town because of phantom but I have major issues that get worse with every post he makes

Where's the problem?

I don't actually think pie is scum, I just think he's severely misguided!

this post came AFTER I started pushing you. if you were actually town, and had a problem with the way I was pushing you here, it should have come up here, or otherwise sometime earlier.

also, I had content up to this point, none of which you expressed any kind of problem with. I don't believe your initial townread on me was just bc of PHANTOM - it feels like you just made that part up after the fact.

[pieguyn]

i like reading pieguy go on rants about his scum reads

are you still scumreading CN? what are your thoughts on my case?

[pieguyn]

pie:

You made the mistake in Tales; don't make it again here.
I will be flipping town, so BEFORE I do, do please actually give your full current readslist and how that readslist would change with my townflip. (Because presumably my posting has influenced you somewhat.)

It was a reasonable request in Tales (and for dang-good reason; you know all too well what neglecting to do so ended up causing that game), it's a reasonable request now.

'Cause right now, all I've got from you is one/both of me/Chandra being scum and Kagami being town and that's about it that I've got explicitly from ya.

my reads are the same as they were before except move massive and SKOT down and ML up. nothing else has happened to make me second guess any of my townreads and I've been focusing on you/CN.

if you flip town my other reads won't change. ever since AOT I try to keep my reads independent when possible.

[pieguyn]

serum: Ludi

@ffery:

what are your thoughts on my CN case?

[pieguyn]

I want to townread him for that, but it scares me to do that.

where do you think Ceph was fatalistic?

I got the exact opposite impression from his responses to me - his tone felt rly confident. and if he legitimately thought he'd get lynched soon, idk if said confidence would show up when he's faced with the possibility of me leading a lynch on him.

I don't really have any thoughts about your CN case. You develop reads so differently from me. Your cases usually resonate as town-you (or not) but I learn more about you from them than I do about the person you're building the case on.

do you think it's possible CN completely missed my mastin push?

cos that's basically what would had to have happened in order for him to make 2963. and what do you think of the way he accused me of having "no other content"?

[pieguyn]

oh btw

I understand lynching Kagami has never been the in vogue thing; but her absence here since monday combined with her presence on the site every day since then is really bad. REALLY. (I base presence of the fact she at least posted every day)

what do you think of the interactions between Kagami and Titus? 2644

[pieguyn]

Close enough.

No, I didn't miss it. I can read, thanks.

bullshit

if you had read my mastin push, what happened to you thinking I "haven't been pushing her like I have with you"? my push on her was p fucking obvious. I don't believe you could read this game and think my push on you was stronger than my push on her, especially given the fact a lot of my effort D2 was towards lynching her.

also now that I think about it, why are you pushing for a Tattletale lynch over a lynch on me? if you were town, and you thought you had a point here, I'd expect you to be pushing harder for a lynch on me as opposed to getting distracted by someone else.

you are the one who is lying here, and you know that if you try to lynch me, I'll destroy you over it

[pieguyn]

And holy shit pieguy 1866 was in reply TO YOU. I'm done with this walk down memory lane.

I'm talking more about his current responses to me. you're def right about him being fatalistic earlier tho

although now that just makes me wonder even more about his recent tone re: me. bc it's way way different than the posts you linked and idk why there'd be such a huge difference - like compare your posts to

phone posting right now but this is some grade a bullshit. i will never ever say something couldnt possibly be a fakeclaim and i didnt even so much as say it made mastin more likely to be town, i said it was an important detail, which it is

You say this latter part like it's a point, when you have yet to say anything about me except how I'm such obvious scum every time you post, so how on earth am I supposed to know you have even a shadow of doubt/"doubt" about me being scum? As far as I can tell you manufactured that difference in response to my position.

Her interaction with Titus doesn't prove to me she is town. In addition, scum are attempting to try and look town, so she has a real motivation to post as if from a town mindset.

In addition with daytalk all this motivation this motivation that dont have as much relevance to me. They all could have been chatting and just parceled out how took what reaction, kagami saying titus is not confirmed town doesn't bother me.

that's not my point - scum having someone "confirmed" as town is p much the best thing that can happen. it's true scum try to look town and might try to distance over certain issues, but in this PARTICULAR case, given there's a huge benefit and it's highly counterproductive to even risk blowing their cover, scum would prob just move on.

does Kagami being busy irl not change anything for you?

[pieguyn]

You refer to his posts as manufactured, grade a bullshit, and say you developed major issues with them. You insist you are not scumreading him but that's what i got from your tone.

^THIS.

the mindset he's showing re: his read on me is blatantly fake. on top of this, if he really had issues with the way I was pushing ppl, he should have brought it up when I first started pushing him. and there's no fucking way anyone can read this thread and miss my mastin push, which was stronger than my push on him, especially if he supposedly had so many issues with my push on him.

then as soon as it becomes clear he doesn't have an answer for it he tries to say "bah, I'd do that as either alignment"

fwiw I'm not interested in lynching him over mastin today

[pieguyn]

also we're not fucking lynching Tattletale. stop it

[pieguyn]

Also, my townreads are all bickering with each other and they should stop.

do you have a townread on CN?

[pieguyn]

no but I wanna lynch mastin a lot more

[pieguyn]

like not only do I have a scumread on mastin as opposed to a p much dead null on Tattletale

if we fuck around and lynch someone else today, I feel like tomorrow will basically be another day that entirely consists of "let's lynch mastin" and I don't feel like dealing with that. this is even more so the case if zmuffin gets killed.

a mastin lynch would also clear a lot of things up as opposed to a Tattletale lynch - OTOH mastin scumflip means pander bears is town.

[pieguyn]

OK, so it's not blatnatly fake, because it isn't fake, because I'm town.

If you honestly believed it was blatantly fake, I would be a bigger scum read than mastin.

And the "nuh uh" argument I just made is just about as valid as yours that my mindset is "blatantly" fake when clearly no one else thinks I am mind numbingly obvious scum.

what the actual fuck is this?

bolded is blatantly false. just one thing being fake isn't enough to automatically make someone a stronger scumread than someone else. not to mention, I've outright SAID I think mastin's stances on various things are also fake. so how do you even think me thinking your push on me is fake would automatically make you a higher scumread than mastin? you're either scum (you are) or you are skimming my posts

also what does no one else thinking you're scum have to do with anything? I've posted EXACT REASONS why I think your read re: me is faked. this is completely different from you just saying "it's not fake bc I'm town". I feel like you're trying to obfuscate my point by bringing up irrelevant evidence.

AND YOU DON'T RUN AROUND PUSHING EVERY PLAYER WHO POSTS TO VOTE HER

this is complete BS. first off, did it ever occur to you that

I didn't need to push a bunch of ppl to vote mastin in order to get votes on her?

all those votes came naturally. not to mention, when I did have to try to get more votes on her, I did - see: me compromising on SKOT in order to get Tammy's vote.

second, where have I pushed anyone to vote you at all? I don't intend on lynching you today - sure, I'll ask ppl about their reads on you, and try to argue my point if I disagree with them, but I've never once tried to get votes on you.

We couldn't have a mislynch slipping away now could we (inb4 I get attacked for this completely natural read progression)

is this still you "not having a scumread on me"?

[pieguyn]

a mastin lynch would also clear a lot of things up as opposed to a Tattletale lynch - OTOH mastin scumflip means pander bears is town.

>implying you aren't 100% certain mastin is scum
>you are clearly 100% certain I am scum
>but no you totally don't want to lynch me today

that makes sense

first off, I've already said I'm not 100% certain you're scum - if you were, I wouldn't be bothering to push you for answers. second, there are several things that decide a good lynch target that aren't just the strength of one's read on a player. for example, there's already a wagon on mastin, and the momentum is pointing that way, while I still haven't convinced anyone else of you being scum - thus, even if my scumread on you was greater than my scumread on mastin, mastin would be a better lynch for today.

this is extremely shallow reasoning and all I get from this is you're trying to manipulate evidence to scumpaint me.

[pieguyn]

btw your bullshit about "hedging" is ultimately a playstyle tell, nor did you even explain how I hedged in that post, soooooo

[pieguyn]

@pander bears:

do you have a townread on CN?

[pieguyn]

post

I see no town motivation anywhere in this post. you literally dodged every single one of my points. you don't fucking get to dodge all of my questions and act like you completely "trashed" my case on you. until you answer my points, I see no reason to continue responding to your posts, as you're quite obviously BS'ing at this point and I don't wanna give you any more material to hide behind.


as a specific point:

I think you used the word blatantly here specifically to piss me off so I'm going to ignore that.

It actually is. Town don't do things that are "obviously fake" period, so I am forced to assume you are exaggerating

I assure you I am both town and fully reading your posts, said posts actually just suck. Kindly stop assuming this combination is impossible

if town don't do things that are obviously fake "period", and you think my posts are "manufactured" and "grade a bullshit",

I'm really close to deathtunneling you tomorrow out of frustration even though Tattletale is more likely to flip scum

why do you think Tattletale is more likely to flip scum than me? by your own logic, since my posts are "manufactured", I should be your top scumread.

this is such a blatant contradiction and there is no way it's town motivated thought

[pieguyn]

Yes. Am I scum for it?

why is CN town?

what do you think of the interactions between me and CN?

[pieguyn]

Why are you asking? If you were that interested, you would have read my ISO and found some reasons there. So, what is it? I'm pretty certain you're not actually interested in having my opinion influence your reads, partly because you don't townread me and partly because of what's already been mentioned. And if you're trying to work out my alignment from it, then you're going about it the complete wrong way, because I'm bound to come up with a nicer sounding explanation if I'm scum than if I'm town. And if you're just asking for the sake of asking, then well, let's just pretend I gave a better answer than this and move along.

really? cos I don't remember you giving an actual reason for CN being town anywhere and now I'm checking your ISO and last I can find is you saying CN "might be scum, might be town", then "not lynching anytime soon but not among strongest townreads" sometime later without any reason behind it (the last specific reason I found was 3 weeks ago).

what's the point in being so cagey over it?

I don't understand your scumread on Chandra, but I still think you're town for other reasons + Phantom. I think that Chandra's trajectory of read on you makes sense because I don't even get what you're going on about, so if I was the one being attacked, I think I'd pretty easily get caught up in scumreading you. A significant part of my townread on you is because of Phantom, also.

if you don't get what I'm going on about, why don't you just ask?

but for this exercise I'll give you 2 specific points to think about:
1. his scumread on me is basically "townies have doubt", despite the fact he didn't say anything at all during my mastin push. when pressured about it, he claimed I wasn't pushing her the way I was with him, despite the fact I've been wanting a mastin lynch p much all of today and my vote has been on her for a while.
2. blatantly contradicted himself re: logic on me. if he thought my posts were "manufactured", and believed that me thinking his posts were fake should make him my strongest scum read by default, by his own logic, he shouldn't think Tattletale is more likely scum than me.

do you think either of these are possible coming from town CN?

[pieguyn]

I'm very ok with Tattletale's catchup. I don't think it's worthwhile to worry about "SK scum hunting" (group scum is #1 priority atm and if you run around trying to look for the SK at this point you're not gonna get anywhere), and I'm not gonna say a post looks like "group scum scum hunting" unless the game is confirmed multiball.

in particular I liked her analysis re: massive and her post re: mastin was blatantly town:

Despite being one of mastin2's scum reads, on a team of three names to be lynched immediately, I do not and have never at any point felt hunted by her

I don't see scum outright pointing out they're not being "hunted" by someone. on the other hand, I see angles like this all the time from town who thinks scum is pushing a bullshit case on them, and it seems like an an angle I'd push if I thought scum was making an opportunistic push on me.

in hindsight, I hate pander bears' 2832. that reason sucks ass and doesn't look like it was thought through at all - reads as scum coming up with a bullshit reason to jump onto the big wagon. this also came immediately after DV had said he'd "need to do a reread of mastin". if that was really true, I'd expect at least some analysis later down the road, as opposed to smth like this, but nothing. (plus, on a meta basis, I'd think mastin would make a post like that as either alignment, and DV should know that, but whatever)

vote: CN

I'll lay out my full case on CN sometime later but not right now

[pieguyn]

serum: F-16

[pieguyn]

Pie, I think you're town more than ever now, but I'm honestly quite annoyed. You're not answering any of my questions, you obviously think your reads are superior to mine and that I'm stupid for not agreeing with you, and you seem to care way too much about something that's frankly not very important right now.

how did you go from thinking my questioning of you was suspicious to thinking I'm town from it? I'm not sure I buy this ATE.

what question did I not answer? quote plz

[pieguyn]

Antihero looks upset.

Fun fact: on the sites where I learned to play mafia huge displays of remorse about mislynches were considered scummy. so, players didn't do that.

do you disagree with my analysis of Tattletale?

also, what do you make of Tattletale's post re: massive? I thought pointing out massive was part of more game events than most of the other ppl, and backing it up with evidence, was a really well thought out read and I'm inclined to think she's town for it. same goes with her pointing out massive adjusted his pander bears' read based on Titus' flip - it shows an awareness of the overall gamestate I'm not sure if scum would have when faking reads. what do you think?

[pieguyn]

Spoiler: VCA

Albert B Rampage

(2): Lord Mhork,

Titus

PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(0):
pixel(2): Antihero, PeregrineV
Kagami(1): sharpest-knife-on-tree
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(0):

Titus

(4): Magister Ludi, Tattletale, Pander Bears,

Albert B. Rampage

Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):
Pander Bears(5): massive, iamsteve,

zMuffinMan

,

PHANTOM

,

mastin2

Vezokpiraka(1): Kagami
sharpest-knife-on-tree(4): vezokpiraka, Trustworthy, Chandra Nalaar, pixel

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(0):
iamsteve(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):

as Kagami pointed out, it's highly likely scum was not deliberately trying to mislead via interactions, given they prob weren't expecting Titus' death so soon. so I'd say at the very most 1 scum on the bus here - thus pander bears prob isn't scum with Tattletale (ML is prob town, I'll get to this later). fwiw this was mostly a RVS wagon, but looking at the read progressions I still think most of the reads were at least somewhat serious, so this still holds

the pander bears wagon also looks p town driven

Albert B Rampage

(3): Lord Mhork,

Titus

, sharpest-knife-on-tree
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2): Pander Bears, pixel
pixel(3): Antihero, PeregrineV, vezokpiraka
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(1): Chandra Nalaar

Titus

(3): Magister Ludi, Tattletale,

Albert B. Rampage

Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

zMuffinMan

Pander Bears(4): massive, iamsteve,

mastin2

, Kagami
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(1): Trustworthy

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(0):
iamsteve(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(1): Phantom

--------------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(4): Lord Mhork,

Titus

, Tattletale, Chandra Nalaar
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2): Pander Bears, pixel
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(1): Trustworthy

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):
Pander Bears(4): massive,

mastin2

, Kagami, sharpest-knife-on-tree
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(6): F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Antihero,

zMuffinMan

,

Albert B. Rampage

, vezokpiraka, Magister Ludi
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1):

PHANTOM

Lord Mhork(1): PeregrineV
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):

--------------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(2): Tattletale, PeregrineV
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2): Pander Bears, pixel
pixel(0):
Kagami(1): Magister Ludi
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(8):

mastin2

,Chandra Nalaar,

Titus

, Trustworthy,

Albert B. Rampage

, sharpest-knife-on-tree, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Lord Mhork, Antihero

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):
Pander Bears(2): massive, Kagami
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(2):

zMuffinMan

, vezokpiraka
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1):

PHANTOM

Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(1): Chandra Nalaar

ok. first off, the ABR wagon seems p heavily scum driven. now with that out of the way:

let's assume both CN and pander bears are town. that means scum has 2 mislynch options, almost certainly with at least 1 scum on one of them already. what would scum have to gain by going and wagoning ABR and Ludi instead? they have literally no incentive to avoid both of the existing wagons, and there isn't any gain in pushing a lynch specifically on ABR. they'd be wasting a lot of energy for no reason. therefore,

at least one of CN and pander bears is almost certainly scum

this also p heavily implicates everyone on the ABR wagon: CN and Tattletale and to some extent Mhork (he basically just parked his vote on ABR the entire day so this isn't as strong). SKOT also voted ABR p early on, although this was before CN wagon happened.

also, everyone from the ABR wagon moved to the Ludi wagon after the ABR wagon failed. thus Ludi is prob town - I don't see scum wagoning one of their teammates as opposed to their mislynch wagon for no reason.

in particular CN's vote on ML looks especially bad - he was one of the first votes on the ML counterwagon, and at that point there were still a lot of votes on both pander bears and CN. thus, given the timing,

the ML wagon makes sense as a scum driven counterwagon to CN and/or pander bears.

the CN wagon also looks p much town driven, especially after you factor this in.

--------------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(7): Tattletale, PeregrineV, Chandra Nalaar,

mastin2

, Lord Mhork,

Titus

, pixel
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2): Pander Bears,

zMuffinMan

pixel(0):
Kagami(1): Magister Ludi
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(4): Trustworthy, sharpest-knife-on-tree, Antihero, massive

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

Albert B. Rampage

Pander Bears(1): Kagami
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(3): vezokpiraka,

pieguyn

, F-16_Fighting_Falcon
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):

--------------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(10): Tattletale, PeregrineV, Chandra Nalaar,

mastin2

, Lord Mhork,

Titus

, vezokpiraka, Pander Bears, Magister Ludi, Trustworthy
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(1): Kagami
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(1): Antihero

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

zMuffinMan

Pander Bears(6): pixel,

pieguyn

,

Albert B. Rampage

, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, sharpest-knife-on-tree, massive
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(0):
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):

can't tell much from this. everyone who was on the ABR wagon before came back to it. given ABR (and then ML) was the scum designated mislynch, I kind of wanna say those who remained on the ML wagon are leaning town (as well as those who stayed on ABR rather than moving to ML), but logically speaking there's no reason they couldn't have split up a bit.

since ABR was the scum designated mislynch, it's likely there's an additional scum on the lynch wagon that wasn't there before when it only had 4 votes. this makes me lean towards pander bears - the only ones who fit this are pander bears, pixel, and Trustworthy and it's very unlikely to be the latter 2 based on my reads. looking at the read progressions surrounding the votes, pander bears' was self preservation (although DV had said before he preferred and ABR lynch, so it's prob likely they would have voted him anyway)

--------------------------------

PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(0):
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(5): Chandra Nalaar,

mastin2

, vezokpiraka, PeregrineV, Lord Mhork

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(7): Kagami,

pieguyn

, pixel, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Pander Bears, Tattletale, sharpest-knife-on-tree
Pander Bears(0):
Vezokpiraka(1): massive
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(1): Antihero
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(3):

zMuffinMan

, Trustworthy, Magister Ludi

--------------------------------

PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(0):
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(2): vezokpiraka, PeregrineV

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(9): Kagami,

pieguyn

, pixel, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Pander Bears, Tattletale, sharpest-knife-on-tree, Magister Ludi, massive
Pander Bears(2): Lord Mhork,

mastin2

Vezokpiraka(1): Chandra Nalaar
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(1): Antihero
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(2):

zMuffinMan

, Trustworthy

we can't tell much from this. there was no way anyone besides mastin was getting lynched, so even if Tattletale is scum, it's possible scum could bus to look better without actually risking the lynch go through.

also at this point, if pander bears is town, that means massive has been on town wagons the entire game.

tl;dr: ML is town and is a scum designated mislynch. at least one of {chandra, pander bears} p much has to be scum. pander bears and Tattletale prob aren't scum together; if pander bears is town, massive is a good pick for scum.

everything makes the most sense with a chandra x pander bears scumteam. like I'm trying to see how this works otherwise in case I'm confbias'ing here and I just fucking can't - no matter how many times I look at this the explanation I can think of that makes the most sense is at least one of {chandra, pander bears}, mb both, being scum (e.g. the ML counterwagon being a scum driven counterwagon to save at least one of them).

thoughts?

[pieguyn]

I also thinking that some people are giving Tattletale too much town credit, though she's not no.1 on my list right now.

what didn't you like about her catchup?

I ended up deciding that your attitude was likely one from town that scum wouldn't try to fake.

Questions:

no, but you're prob scum for other reasons

I can't answer the 2nd question right now. I'll answer it later

[pieguyn]

I think I'm having post-tales of you trauma. :/

:/

I tried my hardest to look at this without confbias'ing. it just happened that the 2 wagons ended up being CN and pander bears. where do you think I went wrong?

[pieguyn]

Sooo...how good were those reads? And how much weight should they get on the basis that Mastin agreed with him?

if pander bears is scum I think you can rule out Tattletale. SKOT is p much dead null atm. I still kind of wanna call him town based on D1 play, but I don't remember anything he did recently and I still can't make anything out of the way he claimed.

idk. I haven't ever followed dead ppl's reads unless I understood the reasoning behind them first.

[pieguyn]

Pie, i'll comment on your analysis in more detail in a week or so but one thing i was thinking of was that it is possible scum might defend mastin either weakly or strongly to distance from a mislynch. Anyone aware of muffin's 100% accuracy would take that into account if they were town i think.

did you notice CN was WK'ing the shit out of mastin the entire D2?

[pieguyn]

Why aren't you voting for me? I have made a post that you think is me bullshitting. That sounds stronger than anything you have on vezok.

wait hold the fuck on

CN calls my post "grade a bullshit", doesn't push for my lynch, and you claim inconsistency = "more of a town tell" and say there might be a difference in how fake she thinks my posts are

then massive does the same thing to you and you call him out on it?

also "why aren't you voting for me" is the easiest way for scum to discredit pressure on them and I'm inclined to think you're scum for it

[pieguyn]

lmfao
are you srsly suggesting that bc I'm calling you scum for

one thing

that you did in

one towngame

, I must be scum bc there's no way you could do it as scum, and I should somehow know you couldn't do it as scum?

sit tight, I'll get to you eventually

[pieguyn]

I actually do not follow the logic of this response. If you have seen him do the same thing as town, what is different about this game that makes it scummy?

I'm undecided on whether CN WK'ing mastin by itself is scummy. at first F-16 said scum might defend mastin and I initially thought CN, but I had forgot about CN WK'ing Nacho in NY169 so idk. I'm not concerned with it atm bc CN is def scum for other reasons.

the point is CN was saying that if I was town, I should unconditionally see him WK'ing someone, remember "oh he did this in one of his town games", and then automatically assume he's town for it. which is a ridiculous assumption and makes literally 0 sense to even make - I didn't even remember him WK'ing Nacho in NY169 and even then there is literally no reason he wouldn't be able to fake that as scum. he's not sure how to react re: me until I lay out my case on him, so he's sitting there grasping at reasons to call me scum.

why do you think CN is town?

[pieguyn]

I literally fell asleep writing this post. this is my full case on CN. idgaf how long it is - I highly suggest you read all of it bc literally everything points to CN being scum.

ready?

1. Titus interactions

- Titus was hard defending CN from me ever since I came into the game. CN had several posts that were trying to defend Titus and/or attack ppl for attacking her: e.g. 487, 560. he was also one of the ppl pushing Titus/Trustworthy as a town pair at the start of the game: 154 "are you implying what I think you're implying", 156 (in response to Titus claiming it was anti town to explain it), 164, 170

2. at least one of {CN, pander bears} is scum

- the ABR, ML, pander bears, and CN wagons D1 don't work with both CN and pander bears being town.

3. D1 vote on magister ludi scum-designated mislynch

- self explanatory

4. his initial reason for scumreading me was the way I was pushing him. however, he said absolutely nothing during my entire mastin push, nor did he say anything when I was pushing him back on D1.

the narrative he's spinning here in order to explain this is:

i. despite thinking townies have doubt, he didn't question his town read on my slot until D2, despite the fact I was pushing him since back on D1. but if he was town, and was wary of pushes on him, I'd expect at least some comment about it back when it actually happened, and there's literally nothing - no "huh, are you actually scum?", no "you seem awfully confident", no fucking doubt at all.
ii. he completely MISSED my entire push on mastin, and is still claiming I wasn't pushing her. for this to work, he would have had to have missed all of my several posts where I push her, as well as the fact that my vote was on her as opposed to him, for p much the entire game day.
iii. he still hadn't committed to scumreading me until I had been pushing him for a while D2, despite calling my posts "grade a bullshit" and addressing me in a way that is very clearly hostile tonally for a while before that (e.g. 2963, 3034, but then in 3042 he's apparently still not reading me as scum)
iv. when I continue to pressure him about missing my mastin push and it became clear he couldn't answer it, his next defense was "bah, I'd do that as either alignment".

there is no fucking way all this could possibly be true. there is no town aligned logic that explains this, bc he is scum and his reason for pushing me is bullshit - he just made it up in response to me pushing him, in order to manipulate me into discontinuing the push.

5. most of the stances he took to back up his scum read on me are extremely shallow:

OK, so it's not blatnatly fake, because it isn't fake, because I'm town. If you honestly believed it was blatantly fake, I would be a bigger scum read than mastin. And the "nuh uh" argument I just made is just about as valid as yours that my mindset is "blatantly" fake when clearly no one else thinks I am mind numbingly obvious scum.

there are 2 problems with this post:

1. as I said, just one thing being blatantly fake isn't enough to automatically make someone a stronger scumread than anything else. someone else might have done smth even more telling, meanwhile the thing that's "fake" might be the only reason I think a certain person might be scum. the logic here is way oversimplified and shallow as fuck.
2. he completely missed the fact that

I also thought mastin's posts were blatantly fake.

so even if this was correct, it still wouldn't apply here, bc I had thought mastin's posts fit the same criteria. this answer fails the logic test.

I LITERALLY JUST FUCKING SAID

THAT I DIDN'T FUCKING MISS IT

AND IT WAS NOT STRONGER THAN YOUR PUSH ON ME

BECAUSE WITH MASTIN

YOU SOMETIMES LET HER POST WITHOUT SAYING OH MY GOD THIS IS SUCH OBVIOUS SCUM

AND YOU DON'T RUN AROUND PUSHING EVERY PLAYER WHO POSTS TO VOTE HER

LIKE YOU JUST DID TO PANDER AND BASICALLY EVERY OTHER PLAYER BEFORE THEM

I've already explained the problem with this post, but to reiterate: this answer fails the logic test. he claims I "don't run around pushing every player who posts to vote her" - however, he completely missed the fact I hardly had to put any effort into getting votes on mastin. not to mention, when I did have to push for votes, I did.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

the implication of this is that it's impossible for anyone to hold the opinion anyone else is obvious scum, while everyone else has a town read on said person. this makes literally no fucking sense

LOL

I knew someone would eventually try this, and I'm not surprised it was you.

First of all, let's not deny that you'd be trying to paint me as mastin's scumbuddy if she flipped scum. We all know you would be, so pretending otherwise is ludicrous. So, basically what that boils down to is "if you defend anyone else, you are scum". In that event, why didn't you call me scum for defending mastin before she flipped? And, more importantly, I'm going to have to suggest that if you believe this, you have never seen me play mafia before. I know you were in NY 169, and saw me try to throw myself in front of a bus to save Casso. So... what gives? Oh, right, you're scum is what gives.

the logic here basically goes like this:

i. there's no way he could WK someone as scum;
ii. if I was town, I would automatically remember him WK'ing Nacho in NY169;
iii. then I would somehow know he couldn't WK anyone as scum, as opposed to thinking he might be able to fake;
iv. since this is not the case, I'm scum.

does this make sense to anyone?

at the same time, he supposedly thinks I'm scum who is capitalizing on mastin townflip to make him look bad. however, F-16 was the one who brought up the possibility of scum WK'ing mastin, not me. he supposedly thinks I'm scum, was planning on pushing him as scum after mastin town flip, and then didn't actually push said angle after mastin flipped town because....... ?

it is highly unlikely he, as town, managed to go through all these stances and not realize exactly how half of them didn't work. he's full of shit.

6. 3141/3142 - none of this looks like it was thought through at all - reads as scum coming up with reasons to scumread someone after the fact.

if we fuck around and lynch someone else today, I feel like tomorrow will basically be another day that entirely consists of "let's lynch mastin" and I don't feel like dealing with that. this is even more so the case if zmuffin gets killed.

hedging

the first post is two fold bad:

1. hedging is p much entirely a playstyle tell
2. his answer fails the logic test. he claims that I'm trying to look better in light of mastin townflip. question:

after all the noise I made about mastin being scum, how would ONE POST 3139 make me look any better if mastin flipped town?

it wouldn't. he is not actually thinking through this, bc he is scum scrambling to come up with a scum read on me.

a mastin lynch would also clear a lot of things up as opposed to a Tattletale lynch - OTOH mastin scumflip means pander bears is town.

>implying you aren't 100% certain mastin is scum
>you are clearly 100% certain I am scum
>but no you totally don't want to lynch me today

that makes sense

the 2nd post is weak as fuck - as I said before, there are several things that determine how good a lynch is that isn't just the strength of one's read on a player (e.g. momentum). the reasoning he presented here is extremely shallow, and he knows this.

on the other hand, when scum feel the need to make up a scumread on someone, they will generally use reasoning like this out of convenience. they'll take whatever posts happened recently and find a way to twist the evidence to make it look scummy, without actually thinking through, explaining, or trying to understand the mindset behind any of it. the way he went about his read here is p much exactly scum taking an approach like that. in particular, the nitpicking about who ppl want to vote/lynch is just a terrible angle and not smth I generally see from town. on the other hand it's smth I see all the time from scum bc it's convenient and requires literally no effort to point out or push.

7. 3182 is just..... god what the actual fuck. literally nothing in here at all is town.

I could run through the entire post and explain what problem I have with each individual part, but tl;dr: none of these actually address any of the arguments I was making. it's scum debate strategy 101.

in particular:

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

You did bring up some reasons for that, and I pretty much completely trashed them because they were horrible reasons

bolded is just the worst line and i never see it coming from town. on the other hand, this is typical scum behavior - continually deflect and dodge, while acting like you actually answered all the points against you.

8. despite going on and on and on about how I'm scum and how my posts are "manufactured", he has done literally nothing to actually push a lynch on me.

from a town POV, if you think you're seeing smth in a consensus townread everyone else is missing, you don't fucking roll over and go to push a lynch on SKOT. you fucking make a bunch of noise about it and convince everyone to see the same thing you see.

however, that's not what he's doing here. look at his ISO starting from D3. there is literally no effort anywhere to try to get any votes on me, despite the fact he's been spending a majority of his time calling me scum. on top of that, there is literally no effort to even question ppl on why I'm town, or work with anyone else on the read on me at all.

this is, again, bc he is blatantly lying to push his scum read on me, and he knows I'll own his ass if he tries it.

incidentally, his other scumreads are SKOT and vezok, both easy targets. how the hell does this add up from a town POV? oh wait, scum look for easy lynches that don't take much effort, so it makes sense.

9. blatantly contradicted himself re: read on me.

he says in 3182:

It actually is. Town don't do things that are "obviously fake" period, so I am forced to assume you are exaggerating

and it's p obvious based on his mindset throughout my entire push on him he thinks I'm full of shit. however, he then proceeds to vote Tattletale and claim Tattletale is "more likely scum than me". even now he's still pushing for a SKOT lynch over a lynch on me.

flipping this around, if he is capable of thinking my posts are fake but thinking Tattletale, and more recently SKOT, is more likely scum than me,

he has no reason to think me thinking mastin is more likely scum than him is scummy

. see a pattern?

not to mention, when you combine this with the mindset from 8, it literally makes 0 sense - he thinks my posts are fake, but apparently has at least 2 ppl (SKOT, vezok) as higher priority targets than me. lmao

10. there is hardly anything in his entire ISO that seems genuinely town motivated.

on a general level, when I read most of his posts I see a lot of words, but the actual content is extremely shallow. there are also a shitton of filler questions that have no followup and accomplish literally nothing. the very first town motivated thing I've seen him do was his effort in explaining his reads on pander bears and recently Mhork (and even then Kagami had asked him to do it), but before that, literally nothing.

I could go through his entire ISO to back this up, but I implore you to just do it yourself instead. for the first like entire page of the ISO, there's a complete lack of in-depth analysis on anything.



tl;dr: I don't see where the town reads on CN are coming from. he is really fucking obviously scum - literally everything (play, VCA, interactions, behavior, etc.) points to him being scum, and his push on me is consistently coming from a scum mindset.

now I need lots more votes on CN, and I want anyone who has a town read on CN to get in here and explain why and tell me exactly what in this post they disagree with. I literally have seen no good reasons for CN being town and I'm fucking tired of it. otherwise, sheep me plz

[pieguyn]

lol'd at skot's timing

i'm fucking going to bed even though i probably won't be able to sleep at all. i want more cn votes by the time i get back. plz and thx

[pieguyn]

Also, what you're saying about pie makes sense to me.

I want to see more of people working with their townreads and less FOLLOW ME GODDAMNIT.

ffery,

I tried working with you re: chandra. you told me you weren't sure exactly why you weren't getting scum feels from CN.

there's a similar mindset throughout every damn person in this game. the reason I wanted to lay out my case in the way that I did was so that ppl could look at each point and tell me exactly why they disagreed with it.

I am extremely frustrated bc I'm already having flashbacks to NY169 where Nacho was scum and no one wanted to lynch him for some reason, despite the fact hardly anything he did in the entire game was genuinely town motivated or unfakeable. (I don't mean to admonish you for it or anything, just if I seem really on edge, this is why) the same thing happened in another game where BRO was scum. this is even more so the case when everyone seems to be completely ignoring me when I ask for reasons for CN being town. it's not at the same level it was in that game but I can see the fking signs a mile away.

part of the reason I develop reads in the way that I do is such that even if I'm wrong about one part of it, or if one part isn't necessarily alignment relevant, the majority of the evidence still points to the person being scum/town. it is infinitely harder to manipulate several aspects of your game as scum than town as opposed to just one - and on the other side of the coin, if you're town, it is far less likely every single thing in the game will point to you being scum, as opposed to just one aspect of it, even if each individual point isn't v strong at first.

Tammy told me the way I present my reads needs work. I can't tell if ppl just aren't realizing this is how my body-of-work reads work, or if they didn't read through the entire case and missed the better points bc they ended up near the end, or if no one gives a shit, or what.

this is a reach out bc I literally don't know why you have CN as town besides fatalism. you can discount his push on me and the VCA if you want and still have what is IMO a compelling case for him being scum. what do you make of my points 6, 8, and 10? I think in a vacuum those points are the strongest.

[pieguyn]

And Pie's case? Half of that is alignment irrelevant. Maybe he's right and Chandra is scum, but not for most of the reasons he's pushing him for.

as I said, the reason I develop reads the way that I do is so that even if one thing is wrong or alignment irrelevant, the majority of the evidence still points to the person being scum - it's infinitely harder to manipulate several aspects of your game than just one.

what are your thoughts on my points 6, 8, 10? in a vacuum, I think those are the strongest and I don't get why you think they're not alignment indicative.

re: VCA, the point isn't necessarily the timing, it's the ratio of the votes. ABR wagon had 4 ppl who are entirely null with at least one scum confirmed to be on it. all the same ppl went for the ML wagon. logically, if ABR wagon is scum driven, there should be more scum on it the more votes it gets. I tend to integrate my stronger town reads/null reads into VCA bc it helps me POE ppl on wagons and determine if wagons are town or scum driven.

re: CN, I don't think it's wise to call him town bc of a lack of manipulative tone. he's a good scum player. he almost certainly could totally fuck with his meta in order to fool ppl. all the discussion about meta isn't smth I wanna focus on bc a lot of it seems shallow enough that ppl, especially an experienced scum player, could manipulate it, and I'm trying to move away from meta recently.

I know that's just going to sound like conf'bias, but if you want my thoughts, there.

re: anti, I can def see where his frustration all game is coming from. I think CN is obvscum and am frustrated as shit bc no one's listening to me and I can't tell if it's just bc I still don't know how to present my reads or if it's another NY169 or AOT, he's thought CN was obvscum since D1 and didn't get it for 2 days. I don't think him sounding different tonally is smth to worry about.

[pieguyn]

I will accept a pander bears lynch if we absolutely can't lynch CN.

I agree with metal massclaim.

@Tattletale:

why is CN town?

[pieguyn]

oh also

I don't see why scum Anti would PUBLICLY go "bah, this role sucks" and be disappointed about clearing ppl. that would be a really ill-thought thing to do as scum. it's more likely he just doesn't realize how good his role is, although that's possible regardless of alignment.

[pieguyn]

Why I disagree with pieguy's case on Chandra:

if you're town you're missing the forest and looking at the trees

you're also either missing or misrepping my point re: point 2. if both you and CN are town, Titus and whoever is scum with her (there is almost def another scum on the initial ABR wagon) have no reason to try and counterwagon ABR and then ML, as opposed to joining one of the 2 mislynch wagons on you and CN.

re: bad logic, it's not just the fact it exists, it's the sheer amount of it - it's to the point where it makes more sense from scum and not as much sense from town. town might have a few bad arguments, but logic that is consistently incorrect and/or inconsistent is more likely to come from scum than town. in particular the way he went about calling me scum for "hedging" and nitpicking on where my vote was is p much exactly scum flailing to come up with reasons for a scumread after the fact.

you missed point 8. suppose you did think I was scum here. don't you imagine that you would at least worry if you didn't do anything about it ASAP no one would, especially with the possibility of you being lynched?

[pieguyn]

yo I have one quick question

@CN:

you claimed earlier you knew this game was a sequel. how much did you know about the original setup?

[pieguyn]

did you remember the blinkmoth nexus was the serum giver?

[pieguyn]

and when you looked at the original setup, was this pregame or sometime during the game?

[pieguyn]

when during the game did you look at the original setup?

another question: when would you say it became clear they weren't masons?

[pieguyn]

Yeah. I had strong, but wrong reasons to think Nacho was town despite scumreading him early that game. I was the focus of some pretty concerted razzle dazzle.

I don't feel like the focus of any of that this game. In fact the only consistent focus I've felt in this game was from muffin late day 1 and I think he was just bored at that point.

it wasn't even you in that game really. I'm aware Nacho was tailoring his scum game to certain ppl, but despite that Sakura and Mara's reasons were still p shallow and like half the rest of the player list was doing the same thing even without anything specific like that.

When I read through this, I'm not seeing the language of reads development. I'm seeing the language of case-building. Do you get why that's troubling? Because it's at the heart of what concerns me about your scum-reads in general as well as this read specifically.

I don't understand what you mean at all. plz explain

[pieguyn]

Titus defending Chandra as being a reason for why you're scum reading him isn't all that strong. Titus was defending Chandra, not only from you but from everyone, but she was also defending Mastin and Mhork pretty strongly as well. (She also defended me but I wasn't so much getting attacked, and she was creating that connection between us, so with me it's not that strong a comparison.)

it's not a 100% tell in itself but it's smth that overall makes CN more likely to be scum. generally on a policy level I assume scum will defend their partners when possible, especially given I'm sure Titus said at one point bussing is overrated and buddying is better.

And I'm not sure it's fair to look at the day one wagons in the context of Ludi being the scum designated mislynch. The only person who was a major wagon on day one was ABR, and that could have been the scum designated mislynch. Sure, it could have been either. But Titus, the only known scum we have, certainly pushed rather hard to get ABR lynched. Also, and what sparked this super fun reread adventure today was me looking at your vca and looking at the vote counts as they were. The thing is that SKOT, Pander Bears, Ludi, Titus, Chandra and ABR were all pretty relevant wagons the entire day. The Chandra wagon was started by Falcon and then he got cold feet and jumped off and then eventually moved to Ludi (whose wagon I was championing by the way). I'm just getting to the part in my reread where Falcon does get off the Chandra wagon and things start to go elsewhere so maybe I'll have some better insight in a little bit.

the ppl on ABR wagon were Titus and then Chandra, SKOT, Tattletale, and Mhork. just based on reads, there is def another scum there - even if I'm somehow wrong about Chandra, the other 3 ppl are p much dead null (although I do have gut town vibes from some of Tattletale's recent posting).

every single one of them proceeded to join the ML wagon when the first ABR wagon failed, so given ABR was a scum mislynch, ML almost certainly is too. plus given the timing of the votes at the start of the 8 man ML wagon (CN and Titus voted ML immediately when mastin did starting from 1690), I could see it as a scum power play to get ML lynched, especially when CN was a wagon at that point.

the ppl who switched from Chandra to ML were ABR and then F-16 and Anti who I think are both town, so I don't think it's accurate to say the CN wagon collapsed in favor of ML (most of it came from the ABR wagon).

re: Chandra wagon stalling: I don't think (and never meant to imply) the Chandra wagon stalling a bunch of times automatically makes him scum - see: jason wagon from quickness where it stalled like 5 times and didn't go through till D6 and he was town - although I do agree it makes it more likely on a policy level.

[pieguyn]

@CN:

another question: when would you say it became clear they weren't masons?

[pieguyn]

weren't you worried about vezok saying the CN wagon fizzled out and me using that reason and saying it was my own reason? or was I misinterpreting it

that was in response to that

[pieguyn]

the wagons from 1772 actually really elegantly show what I'm talking about.

look at the way the ML wagon built up. a lot of it came from the ABR wagon while the pander bears and CN wagons remained mostly constant.

given the initial ABR wagon (the early one with like 5 votes) was scum driven, if pander bears and CN were both town, I don't see why the dynamic of those wagons would be the way it was. scum would have 2 mislynch wagons available but instead the ML wagon springs out of nowhere. there isn't much of a reason for scum to bother with that when they could have been on the pander bears/CN wagons instead.

on the other hand, if CN is scum, it makes a shitton more sense, especially when you factor in the timing of the votes on the ML wagon.

[pieguyn]

to clarify the logic there isn't that CN is necessarily 100% scum, but that one of {pander bears, CN} is scum. the timing of the votes makes me think CN is more likely tho

[pieguyn]

when I say "nowhere" I mean it had 0 votes. it's true ML had a bunch of suspicion on him and was #scumposting, but look at the timing and the composition of the wagon. Titus was one of the first votes on there and a lot of the wagon came from the ABR wagon which was scum driven. it's a scum driven wagon.

however, if pander bears and CN are both town, scum has no reason to bother creating a 3RD mislynch wagon. there is no reason that wagon would have existed the way it did if they could have gone to push both of {pander bears, CN} for a mislynch instead. on the other hand, it's infinitely more likely scum was pushing it as a counterwagon to whichever of {pander bears, CN} is scum.

Titus was fighting really hard for ABR lynch, but if they had 2 mislynch wagons available, what would the point in doing that be? instead she parks her ass on ABR and doesn't move off until mastin votes ML, despite the fact that the ABR wagon was hardly going anywhere at all.

[pieguyn]

On Chandra:
The point of Chandra was to be a better townie than Cephrir, sort of, or at least a more influential one. Since I think I may retire her after this now that I know I can't maintain her under pressure, here's how she's supposed to differ from me.

-She acts more confident than I actually feel
-Plays aggressively and abrasively.
-In order to sound confident, I tried to curtail my usual excessive use of wishy washy weasel words.

-Massively stream-of-consciousness posting. Chandra speaks her mind when she thinks of things. This results in frequent octuple posts.
-I'm pretty sure there was one more thing (I keep a list of her attributes next to me whenever I post as her because it's difficult for me to manage naturally, but it's at home and I am not).

you have no fucking right to nitpick over me calling you "obvious scum" when you're using these as strategies.

[pieguyn]

Titus
Trustworthy
Phantom- I could be getting burn(_209)'d here but I currently feel very good about this.

mastin- if my best defender is a scum-mastin, I'll be really sad.
massive
Mhork- I haven't seen his scumgame outside of IRC, so I don't know exactly what to expect from it, but this is beginning to feel like the Mhork I'm familiar with. And that doesn't include the townreading of me (scum-Mhork would be very stupid to suspect me, as it would literally be a scum claim), but rather the defending, though he could be doing it more.
F-16- mostly for steve. Actually, entirely for steve.
Antihero- frustration is fairly real, but also different from the town Anti I've seen before.
PV- standard "I don't think you're scum yet" PV read.

Pander- I have very little confidence in my ability to read DV, but I think they've been attacked unfairly at times.
pixel- Just not sure how I feel about them.
Tattletale=vezok (dead null)
Muffin- Played with you twice, this looks way more like the scum game. Mastin's read prevents you from being lower.
SKOT- I've backed off and liked some of his recent posting, but not enough to completely shake what I felt before.

ABR- I'm beginning to buy what Mhork is selling here.
Kagami- Just all around ew.

Magister Ludi- why isn't this scumfuck dead yet

also now I'm wondering about this post

it seems like it's coming from an angle of buying into Titus/Trustworthy being a town pair - most of the reads have reasons but he didn't bother listing any for them. but given he also left out the reason for the massive read, I don't think it means anything :/

[pieguyn]

I'd like to lynch one of the people on the CN wagon. Can I get a rehash why each vote is there currently?

go back read 3490 try again. till then, why do you think CN is town?

[pieguyn]

The idea that you are still "wondering" about anything I post is laughable.

lmfao

@everyone:

if you read one thing I post, read this. CN has been calling me scum this whole time for deathtunneling him. but then I post what I was building up to with my line of questioning, decide it doesn't actually mean anything, and he calls me scum for NOT pushing him over it.

does this fucking make sense to anyone?

he's literally just trying to find whatever reason he can to paint me as scummy. there is no way in hell this is town motivated thought.

[pieguyn]

Somebody - you or pie I think - is going to yell at me for wanting to lynch massive.

ffery, I'm aware you don't necessarily agree with my read. that's fine. but I feel really frustrated when you post smth like this, I've laid out a bunch of reasons why CN is scum, and I still don't know why you're thinking the way you currently are about the gamestate.

I want to hear your elaboration on why CN is a questionable lynch - I still have literally no clue why you think he's town. I'm aware you said you still haven't resolved your CN read, but I can't comprehend why you're actively trying to derail this wagon and posting stuff like this re: me otherwise.

re: pander bears, I have gut town vibes off Tattletale's recent posts and regardless it's not a good idea to write someone off just bc of one questionable person on the wagon. and {massive, pander bears} prob aren't both scum, but I have no idea why you think massive is scum. can you plz walk me through this?

[pieguyn]

I don't know if he's town, but when I think about lynching him it just feels...wrong.

anything specific that feels wrong about it?

also how do you think the Ludi wagon D1 happened if both {CN, pander bears} are town?

along with Titus, there was almost def another scum on the first ABR wagon that turned into the Ludi wagon - and there is literally no logic that explains the scumteam avoiding both existing mislynch wagons, and then pushing a 3rd mislynch wagon as a counter to both pander bears and CN, if they both are town. it makes literally no sense whatsoever.

I started scumreading massive since early on based on his push on Trustworthy when he echoed ABR's hydra-hate stance. I don't remember how that synched with Titus' early push on Trustworthy prior to the crumb, but I think it came before Titus 180'd and started calling TW town because role pm.

What are your current thoughts on SKOT?

do you think massive is more likely scum than pander bears? I don't like anything pander bears did recently - as a specific point in retrospect I fucking hate their D2 jump on mastin - meanwhile I have massive as null.

re SKOT: as long as the CN wagon exists, you won't find me anywhere near a wagon on SKOT. CN and SKOT prob aren't scum together (even discounting SKOT's CN vote, there was that whole shitstorm between the 2 of them D1) and CN is infinitely more likely to flip scum than SKOT.

I do agree (gasp) SKOT's jump on CN might be scummy, but if SKOT was voting pander bears on D1/D2, I don't get why he'd need to jump ship and go onto CN instead D3. he could have easily just continued the push on pander bears. on the other hand, I can obv buy him thinking CN's behavior is scummy.

I kind of wanna call him town for D1 play bc he had a bunch of reactions to pressure that looked town. but he hasn't done much recently and I don't wanna write anyone off based exclusively off D1 (especially given I'm p sure someone said peacebringer lurked a lot as scum).

[pieguyn]

I think it's a rather shit idea to clear pander bears based on one Titus interaction. I do acknowledge it might make pander bears more likely to be town, but logically there's no reason she couldn't fake that, especially if she already light busses - I don't see any difference in motivation between light bussing and shitting on their interactions with someone.

@Majiffy:

why do you think CN looks town?

also, you said you were gonna look at wagons. can you look at the way the initial ABR wagon and Ludi wagon happened D1 and tell me what you think?

[pieguyn]

You are thinking about this game a lot harder than I am. I'm sure that's a good thing.

I'd vote pander over ceph.

did you mean voting pander over massive?

regardless, I'd be ok with a pander bears lynch if CN lynch fails, although I absolutely wanna lynch CN if possible.

[pieguyn]

pieguyn: Which wagon is the counterwagon to CN?

iirc both massive and pander bears are counterwagons. however I think massive is more likely a scum driven counterwagon while pander bears is scum with CN.

I don't think I understand the question. do you mean back on D1 or am I missing smth?

also I'm confused by your unvote. do you think pander bears is more likely town atm?

[pieguyn]

These posts right off the bat struck a town chord in response to my asking what was going on in recent events.

the first post is actually one of my major problems with CN.

he's making a shitton of noise about me being scum and/or me being full of shit. but notice how he doesn't mention me there?

despite the fact he supposedly feels rly strongly about it, he is actively avoiding trying to push a lynch on me. this is bc he is blatantly lying to push it and doesn't want to call to much attention to it.

on the other hand, if he was town, and thought he had a point here, he'd be fucking shouting from the rooftops - from a town POV, if you think you're seeing smth in a consensus townread and no one's listening to you on it, you don't roll over and go "oh, well, looks like he's not getting lynched, I'll just give up", you try to get that person lynched and get as many ppl on your side as you can.

Pretty town-feeling reaction to a wagon on self. Shows care to actually discern motivations.

disagree. there isn't any actual effort to analyze the votes on him - all of the things he points out are extremely shallow.

on the other hand it makes a shitton of sense as scum trying to discredit all the votes on them, with the last one going "ok this one might be town" in order to sound more reasonable and credible.

Not going to bother quoting this one because hueg but more genuine reactions and scumhunting.

where is the scum hunting in that post?

regardless, given it's a response to my case on him, he'd have to make a post like that regardless of alignment. it's not a good idea to write him off as town for it.

re: trolling: it is literally the easiest shit to fake as scum. I strongly disagree with you (or anyone else) writing CN off for shit troll posts that have literally no town motivation (although no explicit scum motivation either, but the point is it's null). not to mention, in this particular case I could see it as obfuscation and trying to discredit my case on him, but whatever

have you read through my case 3490? what do you make of my points 6, 8, and 10?

[pieguyn]

btw plz plz plz look at the ML/ABR D1 wagons. I've explained this already but tl;dr: Titus along with {CN, SKOT, Mhork, PV} were consistently pushing an ABR wagon with 5 votes. when that failed, they went to go push a wagon on ML (literally everyone from the first ABR wagon with 5 votes joined the ML wagon down the road).

however, during all of this there were 2 wagons on CN and pander bears which remained mostly constant. if both {CN, pander bears} are town, there is no logic that explains the scumteam avoiding both of them as mislynch wagons and then piling on the ML/ABR wagons instead. it makes absolutely 0 sense - thus at least one of {CN, pander bears} has to be scum.

what are your thoughts on this?

[pieguyn]

For approximately 14th time.

-Why are you assuming ML is town.
-You are assuming the ML wagon was not town driven for no particular reason. Titus was there, but who cares? Titus make strange decisions on a constant basis.

what's the point of this question when:

1. afaik you have a town read on ML/majiffy (the last reads list I found had ML as null-town) and a scum read on SKOT who was also on the ML wagon
2. you outright said you don't give a shit about VCA?

this feels like a bullshit scum question. not to mention, I've already answered it

[pieguyn]

Anyway, why is Falcon maybe not a townread anymore? It's because he's doing lazy lazy scumhunting and when I think F-16 Fighting Falcon, I think awesome town player that actually thinks things through.

^this is a shit OMGUS. it completely neglects the fact F-16 has been V/LA the whole time and has been playing like this for p much the entire game day - if he really believed this he would have pointed it out before. I also agree his angle about "trying to replicate his town meta" is bullshit.

incidentally, remember how CN OMGUS'ed me when I called him out? THIS IS THE EXACT SAME THING, EXCEPT IT'S PANDER BEARS DOING IT TO F-16. coincidence?

[pieguyn]

Not everyone does that.

The names he points out are consistent with his play. He has been actively decrying the SKOT and Massive lynches, and pushing against wagons on himself and Pandeer.

this still doesn't explain why he's ACTIVELY AVOIDING pushing his scum read on me.

mb what I said was an exaggeration - the point is, despite making a shitton of noise about me being scum, there is literally no effort this entire game day to do anything remotely close to a push on me, nor is he questioning anyone else on their reads on me, nor is he trying to get anyone else to work with him re: me at all. despite feeling so strongly about me being scum, he is explicitly NOT taking any action about it. there is no way in fuck that is town motivated thought.

why do you think that comes from a town POV?

Maybe, but that doesn't mean scum. It's showing of a townie that legitimately doesn't understand the reasons why he's being wagoned.

if he legitimately didn't understand the wagon on him, he could have, you know, asked?

he has both Anti and vezok as "lol not sure why they're voting me". however, afaik there is literally no effort the entire game day to actually ask and try to understand their votes on him. the actions he's taking over it don't add up from a town POV. instead, he goes to straight up discredit.

Leading question. I didn't say I was reading that post as town for scumhunting. His demeanor and tone scream town in it.

no it fucking isn't. his entire demeanor re: me has just been fucking around and trolling (even in that post we get: "you just threw 'manipulate' in there to make Tammy feel better"), and it's not hard for an experienced scum player to fake the amount of anger that's shown here. there is literally nothing about it that's hard to fake.

what about his tone/demeanor do you think screams town that he couldn't fake as scum?

I haven't read much from you after I got a townread on you.

mind reading through points 6/8/10 and telling me your thoughts?

re: VCA: I think you're misundestanding my point. Titus was

on

the ABR and ML wagons. they can't be all town. there's confirmed to be at least 1 scum on there. along with the composition of the rest of the wagon, this indicates that they're scum driven wagons, which doesn't make any sense if both {pander bears, CN} are town. it's not about just 1 wagon, it's about the movement of the wagons over time.

[pieguyn]

Also, i get your ceph suspicion but i am seeing a bunch of things that i think could be explained by his alt. the over aggressiveness and the nitpicking and trying to be a good townie.

I'm not gonna write anyone off bc it's an alt. regardless, there are several things it doesn't explain: the way the scumteam voted D1, him scrambling to come up with a scum read on me, him not pushing for a lynch on me at all, him not doing anything genuinely town motivated, etc.

[pieguyn]

at this point, it doesn't look like the CN wagon is going anywhere.

if I don't get any more votes on CN, I'll accept pander bears, but I'd like to reiterate despite all the posts CN is making I still have no idea why the fuck ppl actually think CN is town. there are at least 3 or 4 ppl who directly oppose a CN lynch for absolutely no reason beyond gut or they haven't explained the reason - the only ppl who are even giving me anything to work with at all are pander bears and Majiffy.

meanwhile, you don't even have to look very hard to see there is smth terribly wrong with CN's play. he supposedly feels v strongly about me being scum, but is taking absolutely 0 action over it - he's not trying to push a lynch on me or work with anyone else on the read on me at all. he's trying to write all the votes on him off without making any effort to try and understand where they're coming from.

can we plz wake the fuck up already?

[pieguyn]

Spoiler:

Albert B Rampage

(3): Lord Mhork,

Titus

, sharpest-knife-on-tree
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2): Pander Bears, pixel
pixel(3): Antihero, PeregrineV, vezokpiraka
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(1): Chandra Nalaar

Titus

(3): Magister Ludi, Tattletale,

Albert B. Rampage

Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

zMuffinMan

Pander Bears(4): massive, iamsteve,

mastin2

, Kagami
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(1): Trustworthy

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(0):
iamsteve(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(1): Phantom

--------------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(4): Lord Mhork,

Titus

, Tattletale, Chandra Nalaar
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2): Pander Bears, pixel
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(1): Trustworthy

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):
Pander Bears(4): massive,

mastin2

, Kagami, sharpest-knife-on-tree
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(6): F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Antihero,

zMuffinMan

,

Albert B. Rampage

, vezokpiraka, Magister Ludi
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1):

PHANTOM

Lord Mhork(1): PeregrineV
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):

--------------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(2): Tattletale, PeregrineV
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2): Pander Bears, pixel
pixel(0):
Kagami(1): Magister Ludi
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):
Magister Ludi(8):

mastin2

,Chandra Nalaar,

Titus

, Trustworthy,

Albert B. Rampage

, sharpest-knife-on-tree, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Lord Mhork, Antihero

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):
Pander Bears(2): massive, Kagami
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(2):

zMuffinMan

, vezokpiraka
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1):

PHANTOM

Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(1): Chandra Nalaar

look at the composition of the ABR wagon. even if I'm wrong about CN, there is almost def another scum among {CN, Mhork, SKOT, Tattletale, PV}.

now compare that to the composition of the ML wagon. look at the more questionable ppl on the wagon. where'd they come from? the ABR wagon.

on the other hand, most of the ppl who came from the pander bears and CN wagons are prob town (sans SKOT and that would involve me being wrong about CN). not to mention, when you look at the timing of the votes throughout D1, the CN and pander bears wagons were constantly stuck at 5-6 votes for a shitton of time - completely different from the ML wagon suddenly going from 0 to 8 votes.

if pander bears and CN are both town, there is literally no fucking logic that explains the massive amt of resistance to BOTH of those wagons throughout the entire game day - the scum team could have pushed at least one of them for a mislynch - and then the scumteam suddenly jumping onto the ML wagon instead. it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. on the other hand, everything - the resistance, the questionable ppl not being on either of the wagons, the way the ML wagon got rushed to 8 votes compared to the pace of the pander bears/CN wagons - makes a shitton more sense with at least one (mb both) of {CN, pander bears} being scum.

[pieguyn]

@majiffy

[pieguyn]

Your VCA leaves something to be imagined.

Still not interested whatsoever in what you're selling.

why do you disagree with it?

[pieguyn]

I am null on massive based on his own play but he feels like a scum designated mislynch. My biggest scumread is pushing it and it sprung out of nowhere as a counter to the chandra/pander wagons. There are shenanigans going on and i dont like it at all. I have no idea what to make of ceph at this point but dv is incredibly likely to flip scum. I have a few theories which ill explore later but i am thinking dv is manipulating ceph by pushing in a different direction because he pushes a ceph mislynch and ceph is town, he dies next but this way he gains an ally. Pie thiughts?

agree on massive being a scum mislynch. (that's also exactly my point with ML D1)

DV WK'ing the shit out of CN-town makes sense, but just based on individual reads I think it's more likely DV is scum with CN and they're hard defending each other. although now I'm thinking back to when I first posted ~the case~ and DV was continually trying to counter it - I didn't get any indication he was legitimately considering what I was saying, rather just sitting there and trying to find reasons to disagree with everything I posted. that kind of motivation might make more sense as scum DV WK'ing town CN and trying to get on his good side, as opposed to scum defending a partner. what do you think?

[pieguyn]

btw I'm still confident about Kagami town

I still don't see why scum Kagami would completely blow Titus' cover. and I liked her D1 play a lot. I do agree she's been inactive recently, but I'm taking it as null bc her RL.

[pieguyn]

vote: pander bears

@anti, vezok: it doesn't look like CN is happening today and I'm not gonna risk a last minute scramble if we continue with CN and fail. switch to pander bears? I'm positive we can make it happen.

[pieguyn]

thx :3

I don't think I understand your point.

[pieguyn]

ffery I don't understand your question from earlier (and I don't feel it's useless reaching out to you at all). can you clarify plz?

[pieguyn]

o. that statement was directed towards the ppl from the CN wagon. I didn't ask you cos you had already said you were willing to change wagons. sry if there was any confusion over it

[pieguyn]

I'm trying to figure out if that case is legit or a scum case.

there are some parts of it I fucking hate - however, there are a few redeeming points and I can't say I disagree with SKOT being necessarily scummy. (e.g. if the point about SKOT voting mastin after not mentioning her at all is true, I have to admit that's kind of telling and also lines up with the way he voted CN today.) I'll elaborate on this after SKOT responds.

@CN:

how familiar would you say you are with SKOT's meta?

[pieguyn]

although this:

tattle could be scum

Useless, but it's as close as he gets to an opinion about most slots

Vote Titus because;

0. weak RVS attempt on an easy player
1. Latches and holds onto one suspect. (possibly OMGUS)
2. Has a lot of irrelevant posts and filler
3. Turns around and suspects whoever is accusing him
4. Frequent use of so called 'weasel words' in attempt to discredit the person not the case.

0-null
1-null
2-null
3. null
4. null

vote Mast Lud

I believe there was something said about this wagon being scum driven.

Wanna bus yet pie?

vote Phantom...

because

This post is followed by a series of posts refusing to explain it. I think this is cheeky scum seeing if he can get away with doing something for no reason;

either that or, since phantom had just made his first substantive post of the game, perhaps hoping to start a wagon by drawing attention to it and hoping someone else would find a reason. I shut him down though.

is contradictory as fuck

[pieguyn]

pander bears has 5 votes (massive, Kagami, you, me, vezok)

iirc SKOT has 4 (CN, pander bears, Mhork, Majiffy)

[pieguyn]

my townreads are literally the exact same as yours except move Trustworthy up and I'm more confident about Kagami town. the problem I'm having atm is, if you take into account interactions (CN/SKOT and pander bears/massive prob aren't scum together), there's only 1 person left who could be 4th scum (Mhork). while this is def possible, I'm trying to run back through my townreads in order to make sure I didn't fuck up somewhere, plus at that point there'd be a lot of factors that might change if it turns out I'm wrong about either CN or pander bears (e.g. interactions).

I agree with your assessment about DV being a more charismatic player (in fact I'm almost positive someone mentioned that kind of phenomenon in another game where ppl don't get lynched bc the ppl who don't want to lynch them will fight really really hard for it). in general, I find this always happens and then wagons on less charismatic targets tend to happen way easier.

I can't figure out whether the current situation makes more sense as CN-town getting manipulated by scum DV in this way or CN and DV scumteam hard defending each other. by itself it's not alignment indicative, but generally if I think 2 ppl are scum and one of them is extremely hard to lynch I feel more comfortable with the higher hanging fruit bc it's less likely scum is lining them up for a lynch.

what do you make of the contradiction I pointed out re: CN?

[pieguyn]

current votecount

PeregrineV(0)

:

Antihero(0)

:

massive(1)

: Pander Bears

pixel(0)

:

Kagami(0)

:

Tattletale(0)

:

Majiffy(1)

: PeregrineV

Trustworthy(0)

:

Pander Bears(5)

: massive, Kagami, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, pieguyn, vezokpiraka

Vezokpiraka(0)

:

sharpest-knife-on-tree(3)

: Majiffy, Lord Mhork, Chandra Nalaar

pieguyn(0)

:

Chandra Nalaar(2)

: Antihero, sharpest-knife-on-tree

F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0)

:

Lord Mhork(0)

:

No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(3)

: Trustworthy, Tattletale, pixel

(expired on 2014-08-26 16:00:00)

[pieguyn]

Their claim is very likely to be metal

ok then. what do you think about the fact THEY OUTRIGHT CLAIMED THEY'RE NOT METAL?

it's shit like this that makes me think you're scum with pander bears. you've outright acknowledged you think they claimed smth they're not, but you're doing absolutely nothing about it.

[pieguyn]

synth: pander bears

at this point I wanna both lynch and synth pander bears. if he's lying and he's metal, we power lynch the fuck out of him tomorrow. if not, I prefer to lynch pander bears regardless based on my reads.

if we lynch SKOT today, we are lynching pander bears tomorrow. no questions asked. I will not let anyone try to fucking weasel out of it.

regardless, we're synthing pander bears today

[pieguyn]

you are completely missing the point

you think their claim is more likely metal, but they've outright claimed they're not.

this doesn't affect your read on them at all?

[pieguyn]

No one seems to care that I just made a case, aside from people who stopped long enough to acknowledge its existence and then carry on.

Is skot not just really obvious scum here?

Serious question.

LMFAO

says the guy who said there was no way I could think he was "obvious scum" while everyone else disagreed with me

[pieguyn]

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

v

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

This isn't that difficult. If you say someone is "obviously scum", by definition you can't be the only one saying so.

[pieguyn]

there is no way in fuck CN town can ever fucking think I can't think he's "obvious scum" while everyone disagrees with me, and then post that.

just like I said: he is scum who was trying to attack me for bullshit reasons

[pieguyn]

btw this:

If DV is scum, he is metal.

This is not actually a question, and as such lynching him today is literally the worst thing ever. Lynching me is better.

combined with DV's claim, feels like a coordinated scum power play in order to try and keep DV alive as long as possible

and this:

BTW, if DV flips scum, don't clear massive.

It's entirely possible DV realized early on that he was eventually doomed and decided to buy his mediocre scumbuddy as much towncred as possible. Meanwhile massive could have been awkwardly failing at bussing him back.

feels like typical scum damage control.

WHERE'S YOUR GOD NOW MS. NALAAR

[pieguyn]

I think Option 2 is closer to 'get bogged down arguing about whether DV is mafia for two more weeks and seventy more pages and then compromise on lynching someone else again'

^this

[pieguyn]

Also, does no one find it fucking odd that ceph's superstrong townread on dv now morphed into "it is more practical to lynch skot today?"

this is exactly what I'm saying.

CN said it was "pointless" to try and keep DV alive. however, I'm almost positive if we lynch SKOT there's at least some chance what Tattletale said would have happened (until he committed to lynching DV tomorrow).

do you think CN's massive read is genuine? it doesn't resonate at all and it feels like he's posturing for DV scumflip as DV's partner, knowing DV will flip scum.

[pieguyn]

vote: CN

first off, someone explain to me how the fuck D1 played out the way it did if all of ABR, Ludi, pander bears, CN were town. there is no fucking way in hell the CN wagon remains constant with a mostly clear wagon the entire game day while a bunch of suspicious ppl go to push counterwagons on everyone else, if CN is town. (this isn't even entirely about the ML wagon at this point - pander bears was also pushed as a counterwagon late D1.)

second:

(That or you're lying scum. Dunno.)

this is complete fucking bullshit. there is literally no scum motivation for Anti-scum to come out the gate lying about this. this post serves literally no purpose other than to do damage control re: Anti being synth'd.

I also don't buy his angle about "lol cos there's nothing that could have happened to make anyone rethink anything". on the other hand, angles like that are easy for scum to push in order to discredit suspicion on them.

[pieguyn]

also I agree metal massclaim needs to happen asap.

I don't think ffery is scum - it doesn't make much sense to outright claim metal remover if she was, plus I think she's town based on my reads. there's probably scum metal remover and town metal remover (similar to serum giver).

[pieguyn]

Spoiler: rise and fall of CN wagon at various points

Albert B Rampage

(4): Lord Mhork,

Titus

, Tattletale, Chandra Nalaar
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

, pixel
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(1): Trustworthy

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):

Pander Bears

(4): massive,

mastin2

, Kagami, sharpest-knife-on-tree
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(6): F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Antihero,

zMuffinMan

,

Albert B. Rampage

, vezokpiraka,

Magister Ludi

F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1):

PHANTOM

Lord Mhork(1): PeregrineV
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):

--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(5): Lord Mhork,

Titus

, Tattletale, Chandra Nalaar, PeregrineV
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

, pixel
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(0):

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):

Pander Bears

(4): massive,

mastin2

, Kagami, sharpest-knife-on-tree
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(6): Antihero,

zMuffinMan

,

Albert B. Rampage

, vezokpiraka,

Magister Ludi

, Trustworthy
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1):

PHANTOM

Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(1): F-16_Fighting_Falcon

--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(6): Lord Mhork,

Titus

, Tattletale, Chandra Nalaar, PeregrineV, sharpest-knife-on-tree
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

, pixel
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(0):

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):

Pander Bears

(4): massive,

mastin2

, Kagami, Antihero
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(4):

zMuffinMan

,

Albert B. Rampage

, vezokpiraka,

Magister Ludi

F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1):

PHANTOM

Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(2): F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Trustworthy

--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(3): Lord Mhork, Tattletale, PeregrineV
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

, pixel
pixel(0):
Kagami(1):

Magister Ludi

Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(6):

mastin2

, Chandra Nalaar,

Titus

, Trustworthy,

Albert B. Rampage

, sharpest-knife-on-tree

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):

Pander Bears

(3): massive, Kagami, Antihero
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(2):

zMuffinMan

, vezokpiraka
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1):

PHANTOM

Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(1): F-16_Fighting_Falcon

--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(2): Tattletale, PeregrineV
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

, pixel
pixel(0):
Kagami(1):

Magister Ludi

Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(8):

mastin2

, Chandra Nalaar,

Titus

, Trustworthy,

Albert B. Rampage

, sharpest-knife-on-tree, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Lord Mhork

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(0):

Pander Bears

(3): massive, Kagami, Antihero
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

PHANTOM

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(2):

zMuffinMan

, vezokpiraka
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(1):

PHANTOM

Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):


--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(7): Tattletale, PeregrineV, Chandra Nalaar,

mastin2

, Lord Mhork,

Titus

, pixel
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

,

zMuffinMan

pixel(0):
Kagami(1):

Magister Ludi

Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(4): Trustworthy, sharpest-knife-on-tree, Antihero, massive

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

Albert B. Rampage

Pander Bears

(1): Kagami
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(3): vezokpiraka,

pieguyn

, F-16_Fighting_Falcon
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):

--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(8): Tattletale, PeregrineV, Chandra Nalaar,

mastin2

, Lord Mhork,

Titus

, pixel, vezokpiraka
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

,

zMuffinMan

pixel(0):
Kagami(1):

Magister Ludi

Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(4): Trustworthy, sharpest-knife-on-tree, Antihero, massive

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

Albert B. Rampage

Pander Bears

(1): Kagami
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(2):

pieguyn

, F-16_Fighting_Falcon
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):

--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(7): Tattletale, PeregrineV, Chandra Nalaar,

mastin2

, Lord Mhork,

Titus

, vezokpiraka
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

, Kagami
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(4): Trustworthy, sharpest-knife-on-tree, Antihero, massive

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

zMuffinMan

Pander Bears

(3): pixel,

pieguyn

,

Albert B. Rampage

Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(1): F-16_Fighting_Falcon
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(1):

Magister Ludi

--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(7): Tattletale, PeregrineV, Chandra Nalaar,

mastin2

, Lord Mhork,

Titus

, vezokpiraka
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

, Kagami
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(4): Trustworthy, sharpest-knife-on-tree, Antihero, massive

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

zMuffinMan

Pander Bears

(4): pixel,

pieguyn

,

Albert B. Rampage

, F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(0):
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(1):

Magister Ludi

--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(7): Tattletale, PeregrineV, Chandra Nalaar,

mastin2

, Lord Mhork,

Titus

, vezokpiraka
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(2):

Pander Bears

, Kagami
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(3): Trustworthy, Antihero, massive

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

zMuffinMan

Pander Bears

(5): pixel,

pieguyn

,

Albert B. Rampage

, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, sharpest-knife-on-tree
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(0):
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(1):

Magister Ludi

--------------------------

Albert B Rampage

(10): Tattletale, PeregrineV, Chandra Nalaar,

mastin2

, Lord Mhork,

Titus

, vezokpiraka,

Pander Bears

,

Magister Ludi

, Trustworthy
PeregrineV(0):
Antihero(0):
massive(1): Kagami
pixel(0):
Kagami(0):
Tattletale(0):

zMuffinMan

(0):

Magister Ludi

(1): Antihero

Titus

(0):
Trustworthy(0):

mastin2

(1):

zMuffinMan

Pander Bears

(6): pixel,

pieguyn

,

Albert B. Rampage

, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, sharpest-knife-on-tree, massive
Vezokpiraka(0):
sharpest-knife-on-tree(0):

pieguyn

(0):
Chandra Nalaar(0):
F-16_Fighting_Falcon(0):
Lord Mhork(0):
No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(0):

look at the composition of the wagon. aside from the ppl who have flipped (who are all town) it's literally just me and F-16, vezok, Anti, and Trustworthy at various points who are probably also all town.

does this fucking make sense to anyone?

there is no way all these other wagons could rise and fall around the CN wagon, while it remains mostly constant and almost certainly

all-town THE ENTIRE DAY.

the easiest way is that CN is just scum. combined with Anti's synth result, it's a dead lock.

does this really not make sense to anyone else?

[pieguyn]

no

there is literally nothing "bleeding blue" about the way you're acting

you are literally just ATE'ing all over the place and hoping you can just skate by, without actually addressing my argument short of saying "vca is shit" and asking if you did something to piss me off.

it makes me sick every time you roll in here and resort to emotional manipulation in order to get townread by everyone

(and for the record, no, I quite like you. however, when everything points to you being scum and you have demonstrated you will resort to personal attacks to evade suspicion as scum - and yes, I did look back at tales of you to confirm this, so don't try to claim I'm "misrepresenting you" - I am not going to care about you being pissed off in this game. this is just common fucking sense.)

also, exactly what is the point in you making 6 fucking posts whenever I post a reason to back up my scumread on you? there is literally no point in doing that and it leaves me no choice other than to assume you're just trying to obfuscate my point. this is the last post I am going to make in response to you as long as you keep doing this.

[pieguyn]

Your probably town. I had occasion to skim a recent scum game of yours, and it reads rather different, but please try to figure out a way to actually work with people you think are town.

sigh

the problem I'm having is basically: say both me and Anti die and we're right about CN scum. given hardly anyone else in the game thinks CN is scum, there'd be no one who'll be around to lynch him near endgame. so even if I do everything in my power to find the entire scum team and lynch his partners, I fear it still won't advance the game any towards a town win.

like, I just keep thinking of Nacho from NY169, or AP from tales of you, who were both really obvious scum but no one in the game wanted to lynch either of them and all the ppl who wanted them dead kept dying.

if I've learned one thing, it's to always follow my instincts and to not get sidetracked by what might feel more convenient, or easier. I've singlehandedly lost at least 2 games for town by doing that - and I'm aware that, if CN is scum, he's planning on doing exactly that - relying on ppl getting distracted and the fact that, even if someone thinks he's scum, they can't do anything about it. in this kind of gamestate, that's way too dangerous.

my main problem with chandra (apart from the VCA) is I see no town motivation in anything he's done all game. I don't even know how to make that argument besides doing a PBPA of all his posts and even I know no one wants to bother with that. then, whenever someone who thinks CN is town engages me, I have the opposite reaction - like they're confbiasing about him being town - and I have no idea what to do.

I have literally no idea how to overcome something like that until it gets to endgame where each individual vote is worth more, but if I'm dead by then there's no point. and at this point, I have absolutely no idea how to convince anyone to see the same thing I'm seeing. and when I made a bunch of noise about it all it did was spark a discussion about how whenever I push an argument on someone everyone things "bah, it's not alignment relevant". which makes me feel like I'm just a shit player who's not worth listening to on anything at all and should just give up playing because I'm doing something completely wrong and still haven't been able to fix it after a bunch of games (especially given you explicitly told me I need to work on presenting my arguments and, if this is any indication, I literally haven't improved at all at it).

me telling ffery I didn't feel like no one was listening to me was just a cheap coverup in order to stop the game from devolving any more. in reality, not only do I feel that's the case, but I'm aware it's entirely my fault and don't know how to fix it besides just giving up entirely - (even when I have smth to say about another player, no one has any reason to give a shit about anything I'm saying if half the things I say are alignment irrelevant)

i know this isn't gonna make anyone feel any better, but that's why i'm really really on edge about this. i haven't been able to fix it because i literally can't calm down about it.

maybe i'm just being overly paranoid or worrying too much

is it ok if i rest my head on your shoulder?

[pieguyn]

town:
3. Antihero <- his CN read and all the frustration around it is genuine as fuck. way he claimed being synthed confirms him as town in my eyes.
5. pixel(fferyllt+Kazekirimaru) <- via play, role, and townread from back on D1 still holds up.
11. Trustworthy(Tammy+Shadoweh) <- ^
16. pieguynPHANTOM
18. F-16_Fighting_Falconiamsteve <- ^

null-town:
2. PeregrineV <- early townread is mostly holding up, but he's not doing as much recently.
6. Kagami <- I still like her D1 play a lot, and her not doing much is null bc her RL. as a specific point, I like the way her consistent focus on the setup is holding up - she's quite clearly at least trying to think and figure out the setup (e.g. her reaction to ffery's claim), and her play this game day reinforces this. it wouldn't be hard at all to bullshit some sort of content as scum, but that's the exact opposite of what she's doing here.

null:
4. massive
7. Tattletale <- recent posting reads town on a gut level.
14. Vezokpiraka <- besides the CN push, I don't remember anything he did recently, but I remember some of the things he did previously looked town. this read is fucked atm until I go back and look at it further.
15. sharpest-knife-on-tree
19. Lord Mhork <- fwiw, I agree with ffery the way he claimed metal was town.

take a wild guess:
17. Chandra Nalaar

besides CN I don't trust any of my reads right now - another one of the reasons I wanted a CN lynch really hard is bc I don't think the rest of my null reads make sense as scum with him. thus, if he is scum, I'm clearly missing smth huge about the gamestate, and I'd rather resolve it ASAP if that's the case.

a lot of these reads aren't developed v well, but that's where I'm at.

[pieguyn]

oh btw

whoever synthed Anti needs to claim ASAP. there's no way in fuck it came from town, but just to be 100% sure it's better to confirm it didn't come from town.

I'm also not sure it makes sense for there to be a scum scavenger and another scum role that can remove metal in the same game (plus a scum role that can just take all town's metal away and give it to themselves is outright broken). given ffery's role is confirmable (based on someone getting metal), this should clear her.

we need to massclaim metal/not metal today (especially given afaik half the ppl already claimed).

that's the rest of my thoughts. I suddenly lost a lot of motivation for this game. more later

[pieguyn]

It did come from town. It came from me. :/

I was hoping to do the opposite and make him metal if Mhork was metal. I didn't think he was metal. And I thought the worst that could happen was nothing at all if neither of them were metal.

I can return it tonight. I think that's the best use of my final serum ability. And I don't think there's any reason to keep scum guessing because what happened last night needs to be explained so town isn't off on a wild goose chase looking for a more complicated mechanic or set of night actions.

crap I misread your role :/
in that case, I agree.

serum: pixel

[pieguyn]

Pie *hug*, m shoulder is here and I will respond when I'm not on my phone.

<3 thanks

[pieguyn]

No. You cannot have a single scumread of the exact same player and only that player for 3 days straight.

If you need to, call forth your inner SK, because that game you were catching scum like a madman, and even if you were wrong it was very obvious you were trying.
Subject: Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Mafia - Game Over

it's way more important for me to get my POE right and avoid townreading scum than it is to get a shitton of scumreads.

my POE pool is {massive, Tattletale, vezok, SKOT, Mhork, CN}. if I'm wrong about CN scum should be in my nullreads (and I said already I think Tattletale and Mhork are more likely town).

part of the reason I'm so focused on CN is if I'm right about CN-scum, I don't think a lot of my null reads make sense as scum with CN, meaning I need to go and figure out which of my townreads is wrong - and I haven't had enough energy to figure out who'd make the most sense as CN's partner.

[pieguyn]

3. Antihero <- not metal*
5. pixel(fferyllt+Kazekirimaru) <- metal?
11. Trustworthy(Tammy+Shadoweh)
16. pieguynPHANTOM
18. F-16_Fighting_Falconiamsteve

2. PeregrineV
4. massive
6. Kagami
7. Tattletale <- not metal
14. Vezokpiraka
15. sharpest-knife-on-tree <- not metal
17. Chandra Nalaar <- not metal?
19. Lord Mhork <- metal*

I still wanna mass metal claim. even if ffery's out of shots, it'd take a shitton of effort (at least 2 game days) to lynch metal scum, plus there's a huge chance scum would lie about being metal/not metal.

we need this info on the table ASAP so we don't end up flailing around late game after it's too late to do anything about it.

also, half the ppl have already claimed (and we have a shitton of ppl who are known to not be metal). at this point there's literally no point in not claiming - scum already has a shitton of info from the existing claims. even if you disagree with massclaim at this point, having a half-completed massclaim is way worse than having a full massclaim.

[pieguyn]

I'm not out of shots per se, but getting serum today/tonight means three serums and serum addiction. after that any day I don't get serum, I'll die at the end of that game day.

I think it's worth dying tomorrow to get serum back where it belongs.

oh fuck. for some reason I was thinking you had only been serumed once (which would make today the last day you could safely get serum).

I'm not sure I like the sound of that, but idk how much of that is just me being paranoid over having another death. it's probably fine

do you think any of {vezok, SKOT, massive} make sense as scum with CN? that's the main problem I'm having atm.

[pieguyn]

Also, pie: how sure are you that ffery is town?

very sure

just as a recent point, she wouldn't accuse me of thinking she's not listening to me as scum. her role also makes no sense for scum to have (a scum role that can take all town's metal away and give it to themselves is broken cheap). do you disagree?

[pieguyn]

if that's smth she does as scum the way I read ffery is completely off

it had a really confident tone that I tend to associate with town ffery. plus I just don't think she'd post smth like that as scum.

a lot of it is gut based, but w/e

[pieguyn]

both vezok and F-16 should full claim. I also agree vezok should full claim first.

The point is that if you get serum again today, we have to sacrifice you to do anything else in the game.

^agree with this

this is the main reason I'm hesitant about this - I don't like the idea of sacrificing ffery. however, I can't tell if this is just me being scared about having an extra death or if it's actually a bad idea.

[pieguyn]

happy birthday tammy \:D/

[pieguyn]

I don't see why it makes any sense for vezok-scum to CC F-16. also his claim makes a shitton of sense given the way he crumbed it - he wants to doc whoever got serum publicly and I'm not sure if scum would think about faking that kind of thought process.

the only thing abut it that doesn't make any sense is there's supposedly 4 protective/blocking roles if massive's claim is correct in a game where there's already a bunch of ppl who are unkillable. if all of those claims are accurate and I'm wrong about CN, massive is prob scum. plus, I don't like how massive's reaction was basically "ok, I'm pretty sure I'm also a jailkeeper" and then nothing else as opposed to vezok who came out the gate swinging.

I hate SKOT's 2470. it feels like he's just trying to go with the flow and leave himself as many options open as possible (both vezok and CN).

@ffery:

are you absolutely ok with you possibly dying if we give you serum? that's the main thing giving me reservations about this and I agree that it might not be a good idea to risk locking out all the other possible abilities.

[pieguyn]

I hate SKOT's 2470

4470

[pieguyn]

That's part of what got me paranoid about you asking Pie if he thought you wouldn't listen to him especially when I saw Pander's townflip. It felt like you were stoking the flames and letting me and Pie lead a mislynch and take the fallout for it. Why would you need him to convince you to vote Pander? I also didn't ask you to vote anyone when I asked about five other people to vote Pander. I am curious why you haven't commented on that.

I'm almost positive you said this exact same thing re: ffery in tales of you and she was town. I don't think that's what she's trying to do here.

also fwiw I can confirm one of my major problems is not reevaluating until I get whoever I think is scum lynched. there are several games where I deathtunnel the shit out of someone, they flip town, and then once they flip town my reads all of a sudden become way more accurate. unfortunately I still haven't been able to do anything at all to fix it.

what are your thoughts on massive's reaction to vezok's CC?

[pieguyn]

What's the scum motivation for him to crumb jailkeeper if he knows that Ceph is town and that ability is already in the game?

do you disagree that the way he did it was weak as fuck?

if town thought they were a JK, I would expect them to come out swinging like vezok did. however CN p much said what I wanted to say here - if scum had what they thought was a JK fakeclaim, they could easily just soft it and not say anything more about it. the way he did it looks more like scum who's unsure if their fakeclaim would work, and so they try to not draw too much attention to it (e.g. what marquis did in quickness).

[pieguyn]

serum: Anti

at this point we have a shitton of non-metal claims. there is almost certainly scum who lied about not being metal.

I kind of think the best plan is to serum Anti and let Trustworthy WIFOM pixel, although I'm also fine with not WIFOM'ing it. either way, using pixel's role as a metal cop is a good idea.

@PV:

claim metal/not metal when you arrive. you're the last unclaimed, so there is no reason not to do this.

[pieguyn]

as much as I hate being wrong, the more I think about CN being scum, the less sense I think it makes

I still like Kagami's recent posting. her focus is still on the setup and her elaboration on her flavor theory made a shitton of sense. plus, as I said before, I'm not worried about her lurking when it's RL related.

I've been thinking about Mhork recently and in retrospect I've liked a lot of the things he did this game day (e.g. his opening, his point re: giving pixel serum). this is even more so the case given literally everyone else not in the "not supposed to claim" section (save SKOT back on like D2) claimed not metal - at this point I think it's more likely he would just not claim metal if he was scum here.

I fucking hated the way PV called CN for "mislynching mastin and pander bears", bc CN was heavily against both lynches. scum WK'ing might make sense as an angle to push - this does not.

PV is probably not scum with CN, and as I said, I don't see the rest of my POE reads as scum with CN. I think I'm at the point where the game makes more sense with CN being town and the scumteam being smth like SKOT + 2 out of {massive, PV, Tattletale}.

vote: SKOT
synth: massive

[pieguyn]

ugh this already feels wrong

I swear this better not fucking be a repeat of marketplace, or I'm never gonna get over it :/

[pieguyn]

@F-16:

what's your current read on SKOT?

[pieguyn]

and, in the course of a single moment of epiphany, realize "you were wrong"?

I generally never reconsider my reads unless I have a fucking reason to. however, practically everyone in the game has told me either I'm wrong about CN or it's not healthy for the gamestate to continue pushing CN any further. I have been stepping back for the majority of this game day trying to consider other options and figure out, if I was right about CN, who he's partnered with. I literally can't think of any combination that makes sense.

on the other hand, if CN actually is town, I'm starting to feel like the gamestate makes a lot more sense (e.g. SKOT making jumps on both mastin and CN while saying hardly anything else at all).

I've thought about this for p much this entire game day and, up to this point, this is smth I've hardly ever managed to do before in any of my town games. even now I'm still unsure about it, but there's literally no point in arguing with CN further at this point. so exactly what is your problem with me pursuing different angles in the meantime?

not to mention, I've outright told you already in a previous post I wasn't sure who made sense as scum with CN. so what's the point of this angle?

[pieguyn]

Pie - I meant to respond to you before but I've gotten very distracted. I think you're a fine player and I wasn't putting down your skills at all. I think you have good instincts and you push your reads in a way that you don't have a lot of doubt and you seem like you don't allow yourself to get emotionally manipulated much and that's awesome. There needs to be people like that in a game. I do think listening to your town reads and working with them will go a long way towards getting you what you want, and recognizing that even if someone is scum not every single thing they do is proof they're scum. (So, for instance the point about Chandra voting for Ludi being evidence for him as caught scum isn't going to resonate. I pushed Ludi day one; I thought I'd caught scum there but was wrong. It shouldn't color the way I read the rest of your case, but it does, because not everyone who voted Ludi can be scum, so those kinds of things weaken probably the more poigniant things against the person.) anyway I know this is a delayed response and I had other things to say I think that covers is <3

<3 thanks. this makes me feel a lot better
btw I never meant to imply you were putting me down or anything. I'm mostly just frustrated at myself bc I've been trying to improve re: working with ppl since AOT and I still haven't got anywhere :/

[pieguyn]

can someone run me through why the way PV used the gladiator was town? it's possible from a scum POV he saw CN as an easy lynch and tried to use it in order to secure the lynch. plus I don't wanna write him off as town when he'd have to use it on his strongest "scumread" regardless of alignment.

I'd rather not no lynch. regardless of everything else, it's counterproductive to pass up a lynch this late in the game. also if we do no lynch, I 100% agree we need a "gladiate again = PL" policy.

vote: PV

[pieguyn]

I think he's likely scum through POE. His interactions with Titus definitely fall under the range of how Titus interacts with her buddies. I'm gonna go over the game again to see how many other players I can clear. What changed your opinion of PV?

PV pushing CN for "mislynching mastin and pander bears" was absolute shit. same thing with him pushing me for having a "sudden epiphany" when it's p fucking obvious I've been thinking about this for a while. the only thing giving me reservations about it is the fact it's PV and I know he can derp around sometimes.

can you run me through why the way PV claimed gladiator was town again? I don't see why he couldn't be thinking about CN as an easy target and using it to secure the lynch.

[pieguyn]

16. pieguynPHANTOM - ??? role probably scum

I haven't claimed. are you sure you're not confusing me with someone else?

re: fullclaim: there's not much of a reason for them to withhold flavor if they've already claimed what they think their role is. I pushed for fullclaim bc it's better to have that info public in case there's a legitimate discrepancy somewhere.

[pieguyn]

I'm not convinced at all PV couldn't be on a team with SKOT. he made that one case against SKOT - but then he didn't do anything at all with it and never brought it up again (his next reads list has SKOT as dead null). and now he's still fucking here gladiating CN over SKOT. while I can see why it might make him town, the overall push was weak as fuck and I'm not gonna write him off bc of it. on the other hand, CN becoming unlynchable after a SKOT scumflip is a perfect scum motivation for PV-scum to gladiate CN at this point in the game. it would be more convincing if PV is historically averse to bussing.

the point about PV scumhunting is the main reason I thought he was town back on D1. however, some of the angles he's been pushing recently are fucking terrible, which is why I'm unsure about it.

massive is continuing to just attack anything that moves. his attack on Trustworthy doesn't resonate at all and comes out of absolute nowhere. it reads more as scum trying to discredit the case on them by pushing back.

[pieguyn]

Sure, it's better for it to be public and for him to fullclaim. After the person he's accusing. You did not seem to be doing it as a matter of procedure, more as a way of saying vezok had better lay everything out if his lowly self wanted to dare touch the sky F-16's plane graced with the trails of his jet engines in the sky.

Edit: Have you considered his push on CN was weak because he was planning to make it impossible not to lynch one of the two? Unless you mean his push on SKOT.

when there's a claim/CC scenario, the person who's scummier should lay his cards out first. do you disagree?

and I meant his push on SKOT

[pieguyn]

Why would I let day4 turn into another day1, day2, day3 when I can do something to change it up?

D1-D3 was basically already a gigantic shitstorm about CN. so what exactly were you trying to "change" by gladiating CN on D4?

not to mention, afaict you had a town read on CN for a lot of the game (in your last reads list from back on like D3 you said you couldn't shake the town read you had on the slot). what exactly have you been dissatisfied with when you didn't think CN was scum until recently? I'm not sure this explanation checks out.

also, what happened to your SKOT case from back on D2?

[pieguyn]

prod dodge

poop



don't know what i'm doing now...

why do you think PV is town?

[pieguyn]

Cause I've played a lot of games with him and I know how he plays.

L4D2: He was convinced our cop was scum and faked a guilty on him.There was more to it than that, but that's the gist of it.

And I'm thinking of another game, but I can't remember it.

But PV is town. He only acts like this as town.

I'm aware of the fact PV can derp around as town (I was actually in L4D2 and I saw it happen even though I didn't do anything at all after like D1 and I'd rather forget that game even existed). however, in my experience with town PV, most of the angles he pushed came off as genuine and at least made some sense for someone to think. I'm not getting that from him in this game at all and the way he so happened to gladiate CN - when he wasn't scumreading CN till today and a SKOT lynch would make a CN lynch impossible - feels way too convenient.

how sure are you he wouldn't be able to act like this as scum?

btw, who do you think CN's partners are?

[pieguyn]

scum unlimited gladiator?

that's provable

no

I'd rather not write anyone off based exclusively on their role, especially given this is a Nat game. do you think PV's actual play is town?

[pieguyn]

@PV:

Why would I let day4 turn into another day1, day2, day3 when I can do something to change it up?

D1-D3 was basically already a gigantic shitstorm about CN. so what exactly were you trying to "change" by gladiating CN on D4?

not to mention, afaict you had a town read on CN for a lot of the game (in your last reads list from back on like D3 you said you couldn't shake the town read you had on the slot). what exactly have you been dissatisfied with when you didn't think CN was scum until recently? I'm not sure this explanation checks out.

also, what happened to your SKOT case from back on D2?

[pieguyn]

Kagami:

There were four provable night actions on N1 : Muffin's neighborizer, Mhork's message system or whatever it is, Ludi's vig shot, and Antihero's investigation. We know how three of them happened -- Mhork got serum from Titus and Antihero got the vote, and TW gave serum to one of {Muffin, Ludi}. The fourth ability needs the serum and unless you think there's a random serum mechanic in the game, then there has to be a third giver.

If there's not, then you have to talk to Trustworthy about the practicality of giving an unknown-at-that-time Pixel serum both D2 and D3, but I don't think Trustworthy did that -- so another likely point towards a non-TW serum-giver.

F16:

I went back and forth. The question is, if I'm scum, what do I gain by putting it in the thread?

vote Chandra

At this point, I feel like Trustworthy is right, and that skipping a lynch doesn't get us anywhere tomorrow.

OK

first off, I'm p sure ML's vig didn't require serum (given he got it back on like D2 or wherever and that's when he got the tracker). but that's not the point.

anyway, do you have any other reads at all? during your limited time here, you have supposedly been trying to figure out who the serum giver is. however, all I got from you in terms of reads has been you thinking Tattletale was town bc of said PR. the rest of your posts have been attacking and taking potshots at literally everything.

I fucking hate where your focus is. the way you're playing feels more like you're scum attacking whoever you feel like, as opposed to town legitimately forming and pushing suspects. exactly what are you trying to accomplish in this game?

[pieguyn]

I would be expecting falcon and pieguy to be trying to work together and game solve but I'm not seeing a whole lot of that. Some of falcons more recent posts are going toward what I would expect though I'm still a bit weirded out by him healing us.

:/ I'm keeping in mind what you said about ppl who read games the same way biasing towards each other. for the record, I've agreed with just about everything he's posted recently and we have practically the exact same reads, I just don't see much of a point in pointing out "I agree" every single time it happens bc that would be way too pointless. plus I feel like everyone is fed up with me and if they want to work with me they'd reach out to me first, so I'm trying to step back a bit.

[pieguyn]

I will accept a nolynch, even though I'd feel sad about it. I'm starting to see PV-town although I still think he's more likely scum than CN.

I have massive and SKOT as scum. still not sure who the 3rd is. more later

[pieguyn]

it's plurality?

vote: nolynch

[pieguyn]

I've had some time to step back and clear my head about this game. I wanna apologize to everyone for yesterday - I was just really frustrated and unsure about myself. I'm feeling a lot better about the game now.

town: Anti, Trustworthy, vezok
null-town: Kagami, PV, Mhork

{massive, Tattletale, CN, SKOT, F-16*}

I still don't think CN can be scum with my other POE reads, but I can't let go of my original instinct about her so she's down there. I'm also not sure massive is town - there is almost certainly a flavor godfather, otherwise there's no point in putting a flavor cop to begin with.

re: vezok, there is literally no reason for there to be 2 docs in this setup when some of the ppl are unkillable anyway. plus, up to this point, we haven't seen any duplicate abilites besides the serum giver.

sorry F-16, but I really fucking hate the way you reacted to vezok. I'd expect you to stop to consider all the various possibilities ~before~ jumping to the conclusion that "this is bullshit" - on the other hand, scum who get CC'ed are more likely to immediately call bullshit and not have any doubt about it at all. also, there's a shitton of town intent in the way vezok has been playing so far. why didn't you pick up on any of that until after you actually voted him?

[pieguyn]

so just to clarify, you think vezok is scum?

that's the part that I think is full of shit, bc vezok is town as fuck. I also don't think Nat would put a scum doc and a town doc and then give the scum doc a town doc fakeclaim bc that's terrible setup design.

if you want me to consider the possibility you're town, we need to find a scenario where both you and vezok are town. I feel absolutely terrible about it, but if there's scum between you and vezok, it's you.

what is your read on vezok based on actual play as opposed to claims?

[pieguyn]

Then you have no idea how me as town would react to someone counterclaiming my role. Also, anyone that actually reads my ISO and concludes that I'm scum seriously needs to rethink their approach to mafia.

actually this entire post just pings

if I have no idea how you as town would react, why don't you help me out and explain how you'd react? you can even link games if you want. you know that I'd be open to looking at your games, even if you're the one who linked them.

and I feel like you're trying to manipulate me with the last line. if you believed you were so obvtown that you didn't think anyone could think you were scum, why didn't you say smth like that as soon as ppl started suspecting you? I do admit this is probably just paranoia, but I feel like it can't be a coincidence that you happen to say this in response to ME of all ppl.

[pieguyn]

I know nothing about flavor and I still think this seems like a doc straight up based on what it says.

the way I'm looking at this, I doubt both F-16 and vezok are docs of any alignment. it would be terrible setup design to put a survivor doc with a doc fakeclaim, and then a {town/scum} doc as either alignment or any kind of scum with another doc fakeclaim.

didn't someone say fortify didn't fit a doc? bc I think it's possible vezok scum had a different fakeclaim with fortify in it and instead chose to claim fortify as a doc.

it's possible F-16 is scum fakeclaiming survivor doc but I haven't parsed through this yet and I buy the explanation re: Tammy.

I find him pretty scummy. His D1 play was scummy. He had Ceph as town and then when the wagon takes off, he drops a vote there and the rest of his play has been "lynch Chandra already" without trying to figure out his affiliation in the slightest.

disagree. I think the way he handled the CC situation throughout the entire game was extremely genuine. the only way I can think of for him being scum is if he had planned to fakeclaim doc from the get go.

I do agree the rest of his play is lacking. do you think he'd be able to fake that?

[pieguyn]

Why not?

now that I'm looking through this again he wsa crumbing doc since all the way back on D1:

Spoiler:

I'm 90% sure what my ability is and it isn't one I need to get by serum votes.

If someone wants to give me serum though I don't mind.

I want to hear more from SKOT.

Oh yeah @Kagami: Serum vote for zmuffin. I don't need the serum vote.

Ok.

serum antihero

@Trustworthy: I'm pretty sure what my ability is and I would like serum too. I don't need serum if I'm the only one who will get it.

@tw: I wouldn't mind if you give me serum. But don't vote to serum me cause that is pretty useless.

this is him saying he wants serum but doesn't want it publicly, aka he wants to doc whoever gets serum publicly. since this happened starting from D1, the only way I could see him being scum is if he had decided pregame that his fake claim was doctor and started drawing attention to it immediately, which would require a shitton of forethought.

on the other hand the way he's handling his role is p much the only thing I like about his play and, given he had already crumbed doc, that would explain why he'd CC you if he's scum bc otherwise he'd have to claim smth else and then have to bullshit an explanation for those posts. what do you think?

also, regardless of everything else, since this started back on D1, regardless of everything else, it's impossible that he decided to fakeclaim doc in order to get you lynched after trying to NK you and failing.

[pieguyn]

rereading tattletale, i'm not sure where the townreads are coming from on her either

i'm reading her ISO right now and it's... pretty anemic.

there was a string of chunky posts at one point, but in retrospect they're kind of "bleh" and i don't know what people think is so town about her...

also I agree with this. I don't remember Tattletale doing anything at all recently.

do you think vezok is capable of planning out his claim from the get go as scum?

[pieguyn]

vote: F-16

1. you cannot fucking claim "lol I'm playing pro-town guys, trust me" and then when people ask you for a reads list, not provide one. that's just not how it fucking works.

2. I fucking hate the way you're positioning yourself as "confirmed survivor" based on the opening post. Nat is the type of mod who would cover all her bases when it comes to smth like that and make sure no one can game the setup. if you were really survivor trying to play pro-town, it would make more sense to just continue to let your play speak for itself as opposed to trying to push this kind of angle.

3. your angle about vezok is literally that he's scum because he's asking you to post a reads list where Tammy townreads those who agree with her. what the fuck? this has literally nothing to do with vezok himself.

4. TAMMY IS OBVTOWN. I WOULD EXPECT YOU OF ALL PEOPLE TO BE ABLE TO SEE THAT. I FUCKING HAVE TROUBLE READING HER SOMETIMES AND I CAN STILL FUCKING SEE THAT. there is no universe where I can bring myself to believe you actually think Tammy is scum. your angle about how Tammy reacted in here vs. gundam seed is tbh absolute shit - from what I remember, she did that in that game bc the game was nothing but ppl debating over lynching vs. leashing me. however, in this game, there has been hardly any discussion over your role. (incidentally, when the game WAS devolving, in this case into "LYNCH CHANDRA", she was trying to work with people in order to get it to stop.) what you're doing feels more like scum who's trying to discredit the case on them by pushing back.

I am not going to make any more noise about this. if you legitimately want to help town, please just drop this - there has been hardy discussion outside of you v. Tammy of whether it's a good idea to lynch you or not. trust me, there is absolutely value in that kind of discussion at this point in the game. I want to believe you're town, but you are taking every ounce of hope I have and crushing it into oblivion.

[pieguyn]

hardy

hardly any

[pieguyn]

if F-16 is scum that makes Chandra town. I agree F-16 wouldn't bus Chandra and then go "lol nope" right when the lynch could have gone through. (it obviously makes vezok town too)

F-16/tattletale/{SKOT, massive}?

[pieguyn]

oh btw

I actually did look through that game CN keeps linking and SKOT's play is literally the exact same as it is here. there's a lot of activity D1, but then it drops off and turns into him lurking and just going "lynch xxx" for the rest of the game. if his town games consist of him actually doing shit, it's p telling.

[pieguyn]

I only said I wouldn't provide a readslist just because Trustworthy and Vezok asked for it.

Also, where did I try to position myself as confirmed survivor? I only said it was confirmed that Nat said that town doesn't need to lynch a survivor to win the game.

no

third parties who work with town generally need to be as cooperative as possible. if you're asked for a reads list, you provide one. what you were doing was being disagreeable on purpose.

if you're town, please just calm down, take some of this tea, and listen to me. I realize this is extremely hypocritical coming from me, but please.

[pieguyn]

Also, Pie: if I am scum for not posting a readslist, is Shadoweh scum too for not posting one. I would have posted my reads and analysis if you asked for it rather than blame me for not already doing it and I was never going to do it because Trustworthy or Vezok wanted it.

that is not the same situation at all

you've CLAIMED SURVIVOR. there is nothing that is stopping you from being 1. scum fakeclaiming survivor, 2. survivor who just goes and joint wins with scum at the end of the game (and yeah you said you couldn't do that if it was evens, but what if it becomes odd?) if you legitimately wante dto work with town, I'd expect you to be as cooperative as possible and post one, not do the exact opposite - what you are doing is purposefully being disagreeable.

I am not elaborating on why Tammy is obvtown. if you really want to work with town, I just want you to fucking drop this and I'm not going to do anything that could fuel it any further.

-last post I'm going to make about this for real this time-

[pieguyn]

Pie seemed town to me for the majority of the game but a bunch of things bugged me about him. First his defense of Vezok where he told me I had "show him a way where me and Vezok are both town" because he wasn't going to buy that Vezok was scum. I get the reasoning for townreading Vezok but something seemed off. It felt like he was overinvested in seeing Vezok as town but from what I know Pie and Vezok never played with each other before and he'd be more confident in a read on me one way or another.

for most of the game, I was confident about you being town. however, the way vezok cc'd you struck me as extremely genuine, and your reaction, on the other hand, was scummy as fuck. I'm not going to ignore that just bc I know you better - even then I was shocked when it happened and it's the only reason I even started thinking you were scum. the moment you're biasing towards ppl bc you know and/or like them you've already lost the game.

And then there are his latest posts. Scum love attacking townies that suspect Tammy and his whole interaction seemed exactly the way scum generically interact with Tammy. Even if he disagreed with my read, I have a hard time believing Pie thinks I'm scum because I'm paranoid of Trustworthy.

the logic there was that, afaik, you are the best at reading Tammy. thus, when you're blatantly reading her wrong and the angles you're pushing are rather shit, it raises a shitton of alarm bells, especially when said misread appeared to come in response to her scumreading you.

I wasn't interpreting it as paranoia. I do understand ppl get paranoid of each other sometimes, but the last time I saw smth like that happen between you and Tammy was tales of you - while I remember you being paranoid of her in that game, you two would always resolve it really quickly, make up and continue working together. this time, on the other hand, nothing like that happened at all. plus, the way you were (and still are) talking to her was way more hostile. so my read on you based on that wasn't just "paranoia" - it was based on the fact that these interactions were completely different than the ones I've seen before.

Also, the "calm down" post and then disappearing entirely. He wants me to contribute but doesn't want to interact with me or discuss reads when I asked him and that betrays his lack of interest.

I haven't disappeared. I was at class.

and I was, and still am (even though I'm feeling less and less optimistic about this), open to discussing reads with you. I just do not want to discuss THAT PARTICULAR read, bc I feel it will be detrimental to the gamestate. I told you to calm down bc I wanted to try and diffuse the conflict between you two, and most of what you were saying didn't resonate with me at all. I thought if you were town, you'd listen to me and step back a bit bc the same thing happened in quickness at that LYLO day.

Oh, I also wanted to mention, Pie voting me because I didn't produce a readslist on demand meaning I'm scum is so crazy I don't know how he believes it. It is easy to fabricate reads as scum. Where the scum motivation for refusing?

this is a blatant misrep, or you're misinterpreting my point. my read was not based on the fact that you didn't provide a reads list - the point was, you were positioning yourself as "oh I'm pro-town and I will play to win with town", while at the same time being actively disagreeable by not providing a reads list. it's not the fact that you didn't provide one that matters, it's the fact you were trying to appear all agreeable while not actually being so.


this is my final reach out. I want to believe you're town (or "pro-town survivor", whatever), but too many things don't add up about your play. the way you're handling Tammy is not like anything I've ever seen before from you (like, really. afaik you two really like each other and work well together - generally you two can work things out immediately, but you are still attempting to discredit her even in your most recentp osts, which is not smth I'd ever expect from you) and I have a lot of trouble believing that I want from being your strongest townread to "scum" just based on me not believing your claim and then attempting to intervene in you v. Tammy. moreover, a lot of the angles you're pushing don't resonate at all - I still don't understand why you think vezok is scum for asking you to provide a reads list, I don't believe you legitimately think Tammy hasn't been trying to diffuse conflicts in this game, and your push on me is really misguided. if you're town, you're on the wrong track.

[pieguyn]

btw F-16, exactly what is your current view of the gamestate? you ask me "is this who you think is so obvtown", while at the same time thinking I'm scum.

[pieguyn]

Oh, also you should read Nacho's definition for what a reachout is because your entire post has been accusing me of being scum, not seeing my viewpoint, and telling me you are reaching out and that you are hoping I'm town but can't see it.

I can't see your viewpoint bc I LITERALLY HAVE 0 IDEA HOW YOU'RE COMING UP WITH MOST OF THE STUFF YOU'RE SAYING.

I fucking tried to tell you some reasons why I think your Tammy push is misguided. my point re: your point about Tammy's reaction in here v. gundam being wrong still stands and you never explained why I'm wrong. I still don't know why vezok asking you for a reads list makes him scum. I don't know where you're even coming up with the angles you're pushing on me.

I told you I'm open to discussing reads with you, save for Tammy, bc you seem to think I'm not for....... I have no fucking idea why not.

I honestly don't know what to do besides just telling you to step back or let whatever is going on run its course naturally. at this point, I have no idea how we'll reach an agreement otherwise.