Serum & Steel 2: The Rise of Phyrexia--Endgame

[pieguyn]

weren't you worried about vezok saying the CN wagon fizzled out and me using that reason and saying it was my own reason? or was I misinterpreting it

that was in response to that

[Trustworthy]

No it was the counter wagon point. I don't actually feel that strongly about that, it was just something I felt in that moment.

Muffins vote counts in Post 1689 and Post 1772 are the wagons I was looking at. As they show the rise of a pander bears wagon in the midst of all that.

[Trustworthy]

No it was the counter wagon point. I don't actually feel that strongly about that, it was just something I felt in that moment.

Muffins vote counts in Post 1689 and Post 1772 are the wagons I was looking at. As they show the rise of a pander bears wagon in the midst of all that.

[Trustworthy]

Omg I actually looked at wagons. I almost never do that.

[pieguyn]

the wagons from 1772 actually really elegantly show what I'm talking about.

look at the way the ML wagon built up. a lot of it came from the ABR wagon while the pander bears and CN wagons remained mostly constant.

given the initial ABR wagon (the early one with like 5 votes) was scum driven, if pander bears and CN were both town, I don't see why the dynamic of those wagons would be the way it was. scum would have 2 mislynch wagons available but instead the ML wagon springs out of nowhere. there isn't much of a reason for scum to bother with that when they could have been on the pander bears/CN wagons instead.

on the other hand, if CN is scum, it makes a shitton more sense, especially when you factor in the timing of the votes on the ML wagon.

[pieguyn]

to clarify the logic there isn't that CN is necessarily 100% scum, but that one of {pander bears, CN} is scum. the timing of the votes makes me think CN is more likely tho

[pixel]

Yeah, that's how I feel about Chandra too actually.

I just went and looked at NY169 because earlier when DV kinda chided Ceph about town reading me from my post to you early day one, he said that he'd yet to have his first impulse about me hadn't been wrong, I remember that being pretty spot on in Hard Boiled, but not so much in NY 169. But I just went and looked and he didn't like my first post there, just as he didn't like shadower's impression of me here, but town read me when I got frustrated with Maraca there.

I thought Muffin had Chandra as scum though?

He had Mastin, tattletale and skot as scum with chandra somewhere above that grouping. I don't think he even mentioned chandra in the neighborhood. I'll check tonight. IIRC skot was a maybe. That's why I voted tattletale out of the chute today. But I dunno. I like some of tattletale's posting today. Still thinking about it.

He didn't talk about his suspects after mastin flipped town?

No he didn't. That's why I think he didn't expect to be dead today. I didn't expect him to be dead either, or reads discussion overnight would have been a huge priority for me. :/

[pixel]

Falcon - on iPad so not quoting post.

Regarding skot - no real markers. Well my msrker was if he's town he stays in the game and argues and if scum finds a reason to replace out >_>. He didn't replace out of revolution though. His stubbornness and arguing early day one was what I remembered from chef mafia and it's what had me leaning town. And then I read some of his posts in revolution where his tone over the random.org rvs vote suspicion read differently and that had me leaning town. But then he's checked out and does nearly nothing at all, so I'm back to being worried about him.

I don't remember saying ffery is an easy person for scum to attack? I just don't think she would be someone scum would be afraid to attack and that was in response to thinking the scum team were making it a point of avoiding her. My thinking on that is that Titus was clearly going after muffin, but in reading through day one he did say no scum team would have the balls to scum read him. Maybe she took that as a challenge? Perhaps scum don't want to go after her, and that would tell us something of the make up of the scum team. It still is gnawing at the back of my mind that Titus suggested I serum either you

or pixel

day one.

I don't remember this happening.

I would have discouraged being serumed on day 1 if it looked like something that might happen. Kaze thought our serum ability would have something to do with dead players.

[Trustworthy]

It didn't spring out of nowhere though. Ludi had been an early wagon on day one. The burgeoning Ludi wagon had collapsed early on and was reboosted. It might not have even reached the height that it did had it not been for Ludi's posts at that time which caused it to rise. Any of the wagons that were building had a chance to build during that time, but then Ludi started posting posts that made people want to wagon him. He got up to like 8 votes I think, and then he started posting relevant townish sounding posts which helped his wagon collapse and then it became between Pander Bears and ABR with a possibility of Chandra as a cherry on top.

I mean most of it doesn't matter as Chandra is getting lynched today and then we'll see, but only looking at the wagons and not what was going on in the thread leaves out a good deal of the picture, especially considering how long we went without a vote count. Yours, for instance, doesn't take into account the rise of the Pander Bears wagon, or does it maybe I'm misremembering and I'm about out of time for what I can do with mafia today, so this point if there even is one is moot.

pedit: at pie

pedit 2: oh

[Trustworthy]

Falcon - on iPad so not quoting post.

Regarding skot - no real markers. Well my msrker was if he's town he stays in the game and argues and if scum finds a reason to replace out >_>. He didn't replace out of revolution though. His stubbornness and arguing early day one was what I remembered from chef mafia and it's what had me leaning town. And then I read some of his posts in revolution where his tone over the random.org rvs vote suspicion read differently and that had me leaning town. But then he's checked out and does nearly nothing at all, so I'm back to being worried about him.

I don't remember saying ffery is an easy person for scum to attack? I just don't think she would be someone scum would be afraid to attack and that was in response to thinking the scum team were making it a point of avoiding her. My thinking on that is that Titus was clearly going after muffin, but in reading through day one he did say no scum team would have the balls to scum read him. Maybe she took that as a challenge? Perhaps scum don't want to go after her, and that would tell us something of the make up of the scum team. It still is gnawing at the back of my mind that Titus suggested I serum either you

or pixel

day one.

I don't remember this happening.

I would have discouraged being serumed on day 1 if it looked like something that might happen. Kaze thought our serum ability would have something to do with dead players.

That was part of what we discussed on day two. And I'm guessing the monitor means you. Titus was trying to give me tips for who to serum and not to serum. She didn't want us to serum muffin. (Funnily enough, mid day two as soon as the wagon moved away from publicly seruming muffin we sent in our choice to give it to muffin.) It did take me a while to realize that the baker man was muffin though. Anyway she didn't want it there, and when she asked if we had decided who to be kind to (giver serum to), I kept saying shadowed and I were discussing it. (We were discussing it but kept decided to leave it on muffin.) Then she said to dress up or be kind to either the plane or the monitor. The plane is easy - that's falcon. I think you are the monitor.

[Trustworthy]

*mid day one

[pieguyn]

when I say "nowhere" I mean it had 0 votes. it's true ML had a bunch of suspicion on him and was #scumposting, but look at the timing and the composition of the wagon. Titus was one of the first votes on there and a lot of the wagon came from the ABR wagon which was scum driven. it's a scum driven wagon.

however, if pander bears and CN are both town, scum has no reason to bother creating a 3RD mislynch wagon. there is no reason that wagon would have existed the way it did if they could have gone to push both of {pander bears, CN} for a mislynch instead. on the other hand, it's infinitely more likely scum was pushing it as a counterwagon to whichever of {pander bears, CN} is scum.

Titus was fighting really hard for ABR lynch, but if they had 2 mislynch wagons available, what would the point in doing that be? instead she parks her ass on ABR and doesn't move off until mastin votes ML, despite the fact that the ABR wagon was hardly going anywhere at all.

[fferyllt]

Ah that's right. I remember some shit about monitor now. I thought I'd missed a card claim or something at the time.

[pixel]

Ah that's right. I remember some shit about monitor now. I thought I'd missed a card claim or something at the time.

damn it.

[massive]

pixel

: Just so you don't think I'm ignoring the question, I don't think your card name proved anything, if scum have fake claims as we believe. I'm content to keep it in the back of my head for now. There are very VERY few Mirrodin-watermarked black creatures, so I'm assuming it's from an older set, and almost none of that is going to be alignment-indicative.

Did muffin ever mention anything about his ability card?

[pixel]

He did.

[pixel]

pixel

: Just so you don't think I'm ignoring the question,

I don't think your card name proved anything

, if scum have fake claims as we believe. I'm content to keep it in the back of my head for now. There are very VERY few Mirrodin-watermarked black creatures, so I'm assuming it's from an older set, and almost none of that is going to be alignment-indicative.

Did muffin ever mention anything about his ability card?

It certainly didn't prove anything. I haven't posted it.

[Chandra Nalaar]

And to anyone else: I have mentioned a few times I'm on somewhat limited access and am phone/posting so I don't have huge blocks of free time to fight each and every battle. I'm keeping up to date but if you need something long and counter-antagonistic it might be a ways off. I'd be curious to hear if Chandra really thinks I'm scum or is just fighting the "enemy of my enemy" fight, and I think part of Pander's case is "if he thinks I'm scummy why isn't he voting for me" so let me fix that.

unvote
Vote Pander Bears

Pander's cases are convincing, I believe they are town, and POE. Yes, I think you're scum.

his play doesn't seem as *smooth* as in Tales

I think there are pretty distinct differences between actually flustered me and fake flustered me, and most of my emotions tend to be fake when I'm scum. The fact that I'm not scum-with-daychat should at the very least be quite apparent, as having a scum QT to complain in is theraputic for me and probably contributed to this. No idea what Nati tends to do re: daychat though.

This bothers me. Nati has the day chat thing in the rules, and i'm pretty sure it's been mentioned in this game already. (that would require me to actually re re-read for that specifically and engggggg, but I think it's already been mentioned.)

It might not have been mentioned before I say this, I don't know. I sure as hell didn't read the opening posts though.

Okay so remember how Chandra was like oh if Mastin and I were scum together we'd pretend to be paranoid of each other? that is pretty close to how he behaved with Mhork. Now he expected Mhork to town read him (ftr he expressed this in a non-manipulative tone which he has displayed when expecting Nacho to town read him when he's been scum.) But it did take him a long time to actually read Mhork. I'm not sure what this means, but it's something I noticed as feeling kinda meng.

Don't waste your time barking up this tree now, I'm going to flip town.

The thing with Chandra is have you noticed the level of omgus? He pushed muffin as scum when muffin was pushing him. He's doing the same with pie guy today. It almost feels like he's getting frustrated with being scum read and is lashing out and calling most people who scum read him as scum. IDK.

I recognize that this is a thing that is sort of happening. I backed off muffin D2, though. I will not back off on pie as long as we both live, even if I'm not actively pushing him.

But I feel like I could vote Chandra (out of pure utility because I don't think it's going to stop being a thing unless there's confirmation), Pander Bears (they just feel ennnnggggggg. This is another one I hate to scum read but I don't feel great about), Massive (though every time he posts I feel better about him, but worry he's third party); there are others I could vote for but I'm holding on to this because I don't want any narrowing down of what I'm going to do.

It would be really awesome if we could lynch someone aside from me and Pander today and use the night phase to do something to clear one or both of us. Alternatively, if I'm lynched today, for the love of fuck someone needs to investigate Pander because I feel now like Mastin probably did yesterday. She knew she was going down and I was the day 3 mislynch. I'm going down now and I know Pander is the Day 4 mislynch, though like she was, I am not completely certain of that read, but it definitely feels like that's what's going to happen. This one wagon shit has got to stop. And I probably can't do any more to prevent this than mastin could have.

OH but apparently scum don't have a role blocker OR we've serum'd scum the past two days. But seriously, they couldn't be sure what the roles were that we serum'd and they decided not to kill the people we made prs?

There is absolutely no way there is a non-serum-based scum roleblocker in this setup. That would make the mechanic pointless.

Cephrir, can you walk me through your read on antihero? it felt like you had no prior suspicion of him before you agreed with tammy's point. also, if you dont mind, explain why you created this alt and what you wanted to dow with it.

Early on I knew I had a history of wanting to scumread Antihero, so I went with everyone else's townreads even though I didn't feel like he was doing anything. I have basically been ignoring the fact that I didn't feel like the slot was being very town because no one else seemed to not see him as town. Now that I'm clearly dying, I might as well voice my concerns, and Tammy made a good point. Also, I didn't think of it at first, but role cops are scummy.

On Chandra:
The point of Chandra was to be a better townie than Cephrir, sort of, or at least a more influential one. Since I think I may retire her after this now that I know I can't maintain her under pressure, here's how she's supposed to differ from me.
-She acts more confident than I actually feel
-Plays aggressively and abrasively.
-In order to sound confident, I tried to curtail my usual excessive use of wishy washy weasel words.
-Massively stream-of-consciousness posting. Chandra speaks her mind when she thinks of things. This results in frequent octuple posts.
-I'm pretty sure there was one more thing (I keep a list of her attributes next to me whenever I post as her because it's difficult for me to manage naturally, but it's at home and I am not).

serum antihero
Synth pander bears

Is the entire game scum that doesn't want to bus? Lynch chandra goddamit.

Antihero is the only one who has his head screwed on right now.

Dumb or scum? I still can't tell.

Chandra's identity isn't hard to figure out, but what can be made of knowing Chandra's identity is where the challenge lies; I don't know how much of my love/hate relationship with Chandra is off of the main and off of the alt, since the two do have differing styles. (Which is, ironically, basically exactly what Chandra says. Baseline exists, using it might end badly.)

Chandra's an alt? Aww fuck...now that adds bias interpretations to the posts that I won't see...

Kind of wondering here why Titus isn't asking who Chandra is.

Since I can address this quickly. I'd have thought she already knew, on account of me having alt slipped in multiple games with her so I don't even know why that was ever a surprise.

Why didn't you point it out at the time?

I don't know. Ongoing games, but I could probably have safely commented.

@CN:

another question: when would you say it became clear they weren't masons?

This is an acknowledgement that I will go back and decide this as soon as I finish this post.

to clarify the logic there isn't that CN is necessarily 100% scum, but that one of {pander bears, CN} is scum. the timing of the votes makes me think CN is more likely tho

If you are town, please take this as a lesson that VCA is a terrible scumhunting method. And I don't even know how the fuck you are drawing these conclusions (don't bother explaining though, I truly do not care).

when I say "nowhere" I mean it had 0 votes. it's true ML had a bunch of suspicion on him and was #scumposting, but look at the timing and the composition of the wagon. Titus was one of the first votes on there and a lot of the wagon came from the ABR wagon which was scum driven. it's a scum driven wagon.

however, if pander bears and CN are both town, scum has no reason to bother creating a 3RD mislynch wagon. there is no reason that wagon would have existed the way it did if they could have gone to push both of {pander bears, CN} for a mislynch instead. on the other hand, it's infinitely more likely scum was pushing it as a counterwagon to whichever of {pander bears, CN} is scum.

Titus was fighting really hard for ABR lynch, but if they had 2 mislynch wagons available, what would the point in doing that be? instead she parks her ass on ABR and doesn't move off until mastin votes ML, despite the fact that the ABR wagon was hardly going anywhere at all.

You are attributing a lot more careful thought and manipulation to the scumteam than they, in all probability, actually have. If one of us is scum, why not just lynch the other?

Aaaaand what if the third (mis)lynch wagon was town driven?

[Chandra Nalaar]

It would be really awesome if we could lynch someone aside from me and Pander today and use the night phase to do something to clear one or both of us. Alternatively, if I'm lynched today, for the love of fuck someone needs to investigate Pander because I feel now like Mastin probably did yesterday. She knew she was going down and I was the day 3 mislynch. I'm going down now and I know Pander is the Day 4 mislynch, though like she was, I am not completely certain of that read, but it definitely feels like that's what's going to happen. This one wagon shit has got to stop. And I probably can't do any more to prevent this than mastin could have.

I wonder how long this cycle will continue before the tattered remains of the town wake the fuck up.

Seriously.

[Chandra Nalaar]

Yeah whatever. Oh I wanted you out of the game so I said I was going to policy lynch you, then I read your iso and magically decided that my intent to policy lynch you turned into a scum read.

PULEASE. Nobody buys that bullshit.

And, I'm not going to give you a detailed explanation for why I'm. That's stupid and I believe you know that.

Also, are you serious. You actually think that two scumbuddies decided to tie themselves to each other at the start of the game for no reason whatsoever?

We're not getting lynched. We're both town. I was looking for the person in my role pm, which is why I asked a question only that person would know. Mine is a town role, I don't see why scum would have this role, so I'm pretty damn convinced Titus is town too.

pedit: yeah i know nobody takes him seriously. I have no problem with him trolling the game and voting me for policy lynch. My lynch isn't going to go through. What I'm concerned about is his threat to take me down if he goes down. I refuse to let someone ruin this game because they don't like that I was allowed into this game and decides to hurt town in the process because he can't grow up and is butthurt he didn't get his way.

This post is approximately when the masonry possibility starts to fade, though if they claimed masons after this post, I would probably still have believed it

[Chandra Nalaar]

-I'm pretty sure there was one more thing (I keep a list of her attributes next to me whenever I post as her because it's difficult for me to manage naturally, but it's at home and I am not).

I remembered; it's playing more to my gut.

[Majiffy]

CN who are the members of your hydra?

[Lord Mhork]

I do not have time tonight to devote proper thought to the lengthier posts of late, but to respond to this...

DV, Mastin was town. Yesterday you decided to go massively passive because she was your biggest scum read. How does her flipping town influence you, going forward?

I think it's reminded me that I should approach reads made by others (even other townies) with caution. As for my own reasoning for reads, I don't think I'm going to completely lose confidence in myself and I will still push for a lynch those who I consider scum. Of course, the points raised by others may contribute to my reads. Mastin flipping town is a large part of my massive and Kagami scumreads (Kagami is still much more of an uncertainty in my mind though). Apart from the above, I don't think the townflip is influencing me a great deal.

I mean what are you going to do today. You gave yourself a free pass from activity yesterday because obvscum mastin. Are you actually gonna do a thing today?


Ohey Majiffy is a thing now

I will accept a pander bears lynch if we absolutely can't lynch CN.

I agree with metal massclaim.

@Tattletale:

why is CN town?

Plz switch to pander bears

I meant to actually all but I got sidetracked. The end result of all these pages is I think that pie legit has a scumread on ceph, but is town too. I'll vote pander, massive, or SKOT

[Majiffy]

I am indeed a thing.

[Chandra Nalaar]

Jiffy, I am an alt of cephrir.