Greater Idea Mafia (Endgame)

[Kthxbye]

Woot, game started! An3x can die first. I don't trust d3x to begin with, add Ank to the mix and I smell big trouble in little China.

VOTE: BoyLane

I'll actually read later tonight (hopefully).

[Kthxbye]

*VOTE: BotLane

[Kthxbye]

This is why I shouldn't say I'm going to do something specific in MS....something always comes up.

I'll get to this game soon as I can. Be forewarned though, it's not gonna be very flashy or awe-inspiring as it's D1 in a large ass game. As long as my Mollie (and partner I guess) aren't lynched today, I don't really care who is lynched. If we get Ank/d3x outa the picture so I don't waste my time trying to figure them out, I'm very much okay with that.

(Slightly) more to come.

[Kthxbye]

...then again, if Ank/d3x are town, they'd be super helpful....

UNVOTE: BotLane till I catch up.

[Kthxbye]

@kthnxbye

Game 1&3 discards please. Thanks.

Sure thing.

G1: Roleblocker
G3: Mafia Goon

We're one shot unlynchable townie.

Don't have time to defend against the vague assertions that we're scum because it's what we'd prefer. I feel a mentor mentee relationship with Klingon. We picked the roles together. I've been doing about jackshit due to IRL. I don't deny it. Given we're mislynched a lot, picking unlynchable is a hell of a lot better than BP.

Titus

Wondering how long I can wait to test this claim and confirm at least the unlynchable part.

Kthx also needs to get his ass in here and contribute. A page 18 RVS with an empty promise to read doesn't give me too many warm fuzzies about him.

This right here is giving me scum vibes. d3x KNOWS me. Me being absent on D1 in a large is a tell as much as anything I post/say. If I spammed this thread, it'd mean I'm scum cuz, well, I love playing scum. Me being aloof and non-committal is my town tell. Again, d3x out of anyone, should read this as town, yet here he is casting doubt. If anyone is to get the not so warm fuzzies here, it is I. Leaning scum on BotLane.

[Kthxbye]

@Mollie and Mala: What are you feeling toward BotLane currently? I want to see if I'm just being mad at d3x for pulling me into another large or if I'm not the only one thinking something is off (the only one that knows them anyway).

@Luna: What specifically from BotLane is making your gut lean scum on BotLane?
p.edit: Are you saying Ank ignoring my existance while d3x isn't is what you are seeing as scummy?

[Kthxbye]

@Ank: Do do you enjoy playing as scum or town more?

[Kthxbye]

Oh d33333x...come out and plaaaaaaay...

[Kthxbye]

Pssst...i been dinkin....

[Kthxbye]

@Ank: Do do you enjoy playing as scum or town more?

Town.

-Ank

@kthnxbye

Game 1&3 discards please. Thanks.

G1: Roleblocker
G3: Mafia Goon

Oops, uh, sorry, I didn't make it clear, could I have the choices for Games 1&3 too?

Sure.
G1: Picked Bloodhound / Discarded Roleblocker
G3: Picked Mafia Compulsive Hider / Discarded Mafia Goon
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A few thoughts while skimming (yes, skimming not reading) this bullshit D1

-I like Aristo for town....like...a lot.

-(See above quote for this thought) I'm back to neutral on BotLane. D3x is being his belligerent self (not a town or scum tell D1) but Ank is posting 99% of their posts. I asked what he liked playing for 2 reasons. First, I'm pretty sure d3x enjoys playing scum over town and if Ank would have said scum is his fav, I'd bet my left foot they were scum. If they have a town role, it would kinda explain why Ank is doing most of the posting for the hydra. That is if Ank was truthful and what-not, but I'll take it at face value enough today to not lynch them yet. There is still something off about d3x's posting for town, but it's a hydra and it's not as clear cut as if it were just d3x.

-You people need to relax and have fun. This is day freaking 1. There is so limited info today, there's literally zero reason to call anyone bad or stupid for their reads on day freaking 1. Get over yourselves before the MOD decides to just canx the game altogether.

VOTE: Rabble
This hydra is a cancer. This is reason enough to lynch them. Kudos to the MOD for dealing with this without giving the boot. I would have MOD killed this so fast. I'm a dick though so... Anyway, other reason to lynch this is because, well, I don't see why someone who is town (uninformed) would try and control the MODs actions and care so much about the decisions if there weren't an ulterior motive as in one or more of the MOD decisions affecting their chances at winning somehow.

Again though, if you don't buy into my second though about this slot, the first is enough for a D1 lynch imo.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lastly, has anyone gathered/posted everyone's D1/D3 picks and discard claims? I feel there might be something here to help guide some discussion. Discussion now is mostly personal attacks and stupid arguments that don't have real indications on alignment. If nobody has done this, I'll try and ISO this weekend and get something together. If I don't get a chance, I'm more than happy with cutting off the cancer that is Rabble.

[Kthxbye]

A WILD KTHXBYE APPEARED FROM THE TALL GRASS

I have a real life that happens to be very busy. I post when I can. It'd be much easier if some in this player list wouldn't add 10 pages per day.

Kthx - that wagon isn't going to happen, I'm afraid.

Why not? My mom always told me anything is possible.

What's the case on Aristo? I had town vibes from him early on.

[Kthxbye]

Player Name	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3
Greninja	Mafia Gov / Survivor	??? / Mafia Compulsive Hider	Mafia Reflexive Doc / Mafia Compulsive Hider
Luna Fox		??? / Wild Card
Greys Holly	One Shot Glad / Doc	??? / Wrong Place at the Wrong Time Townie	Weak JK / Wereparrot
shaddowez	Nymphomaniac / Compulsive Bodyguard Survivor	??? / Ascetic Townie	Werewolf Gravedigger / Conspiracy Theorist
Shiro	Town God Father / VT	??? / Vanilla Cop	Bodyguard / VT
BotLane	Vanilla Cop / Conspiracy Theorist	??? / Seer	Alien Vanillaiser / Mafia Cupid
Davsto	Serial Killer (Immune to Mafia Kills) / Mason Lover	Ascetic Townie / Black Goo	Conspiracy Theorist / Alpha Goon
hippy love	black goo / 1 shot black goo	Town Lover / Town Compulsive Childkiller	VT / Mafia Goon
Farside66	Wereparrot / Wild Card	Mason / VT	Saulus / WW Blocker
firebringer		??? / Watchlisted Townie
Delenn	Innocent Child / Alien Sympathizer	Mafia Saulus / Bulletproof Townie	Werewolf Godfather / Vanilla Townie
Level 1-1	Vigilante / Mafia Reflexive Doctor	??? / Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist / Mason Lover
T S O		??? / Lover
Vedith Lizard_Buttock	Vengeful Townie / Mafia lover	??? / Werewolf FBI Agent	Survivor Mason / Lyncher
West9	VT / Cop	??? / Watchlisted Townie	Mafia Fruit Vender / Innocent Child
kaboose	Day Vig / Enabler	Unlynchable / VT	Hider / Gladiator
rabble rabble rabble	Mason / One Shot Commuter	??? / Werewolf	Bodyguard / Cult One Shot Goomaker
purple hero	Black Goo / VT	??? / Alien Sympathiser	Cop / Vanilla Cop
Aristophanes	SK (Alien/Replicant Immune) / 1-shot Townie (turns into Survivor on D2)	??? / Tracker	Alien 1-shot Unlynchable / Mafia 1-shot Governor
Mr Elvis		??? / Cop-of-all-Trades	Mason / Mason
Kthxbye	Bloodhound / Roleblocker	??? / Mafia goon	Mafia Compulsive Hider / Mafia Goon

VOTE: Greninja

I do not buy that Mafia Compulsive Hider was an option for them in G2 AND G3 with myself also having the option of Mafia Compulsive Hider on G3 as well. I don't know what the odds of this happening randomly, but looking at the list of options that could have been rolled, it's fucking super low....low enough to warrant today's lynch.

I also don't believe West9 would have picked VT over Cop, but I'm not sure how this probable lie effects the alignment of this game.

Mr Elvis, firebringer, TSO and Luna haven't provided (that I could find) their G1 and/or G3 stuff.

[Kthxbye]

Delenn

: Hippy Love, T S O, Level 1-1, purple hero, BotLane, Verdith, kaboose

Verdith

: farside66, Greninja,

Delenn

, davsto, shiro

Delenn

: Hippy Love, T S O, Level 1-1, purple hero, BotLane, Verdith, kaboose

Verdith

: farside66, Fro99er,

Delenn

, davsto, shiro, luna fox

Delenn

: Hippy Love, T S O, Level 1-1, purple hero, BotLane, Verdith, kaboose

Verdith

: farside66, Fro99er,

Delenn

, davsto, shiro, luna fox, rabble rabble rabble, Aristophanes

The 3 VCs before vig shot. This points to at least one scum buddy in luna fox, rabble rabble rabble, Aristophanes. Also note, Fro99er (Greninja) is voting the known scum counter wagon.

Today I'm willing to vote Fro99er, luna or rabble.

VOTE: Fro99er (Greninja) due to pick/discard chart above.

[Kthxbye]

I do not buy that Mafia Compulsive Hider was an option for them in G2 AND G3 with myself also having the option of Mafia Compulsive Hider on G3 as well. I don't know what the odds of this happening randomly, but looking at the list of options that could have been rolled, it's fucking super low....low enough to warrant today's lynch.

Nah.

This is the weakest stretch for a vote I've ever seen.

Three Mafia Compulsive Hiders appearing in a total of 126 dice rolls (6 dice*21 players) is hardly super-rare. In fact, it is exactly the same probability as him getting any other role that only appears once in the cards instead of one of them. Also, Gambler's Fallacy - each die role has no direct influence on the other.

This is a terrible vote in every way, regardless of whether or not it's avoiding an Aristophanes vote.

Till you post the math proving "it is exactly the same probability" (which I'm pretty sure you can't cuz it isn't), stop talking out your butt. I'll give you that each die roll has no direct influence on the other, BUT, the chances of rolling the same thing out of 126 die rolls is lower than rolling differently. That is a fact. Secondly, I've already said Arist gave me town vibes and nobody has given me any reason to re-address this read. Him being the latest on the counter wagon to Delenn is the best I've seen and I only saw it due to my own damn VCA so....eat it?

[Kthxbye]

Player Name	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3
Greninja	Mafia Gov / Survivor	??? / Mafia Compulsive Hider	Mafia Reflexive Doc / Mafia Compulsive Hider
Luna Fox	Supersaint / Serial Killer (Protection from alien and werewolf kills)	Town Bloodhound / Wild Card	VT / Werewolf Alpha
Greys Holly	One Shot Glad / Doc	??? / Wrong Place at the Wrong Time Townie	Weak JK / Wereparrot
shaddowez	Nymphomaniac / Compulsive Bodyguard Survivor	??? / Ascetic Townie	Werewolf Gravedigger / Conspiracy Theorist
Shiro	Town God Father / VT	??? / Vanilla Cop	Bodyguard / VT
BotLane	Vanilla Cop / Conspiracy Theorist	??? / Seer	Alien Vanillaiser / Mafia Cupid
Davsto	Serial Killer (Immune to Mafia Kills) / Mason Lover	Ascetic Townie / Black Goo	Conspiracy Theorist / Alpha Goon
hippy love	black goo / 1 shot black goo	Town Lover / Town Compulsive Childkiller	VT / Mafia Goon
Farside66	Wereparrot / Wild Card	Mason / VT	Saulus / WW Blocker
firebringer		??? / Watchlisted Townie
Delenn	Innocent Child / Alien Sympathizer	Mafia Saulus / Bulletproof Townie	Werewolf Godfather / Vanilla Townie
Level 1-1	Vigilante / Mafia Reflexive Doctor	??? / Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist / Mason Lover
T S O		??? / Lover
Vedith Lizard_Buttock	Vengeful Townie / Mafia lover	??? / Werewolf FBI Agent	Survivor Mason / Lyncher
West9	VT / Cop	??? / Watchlisted Townie	Mafia Fruit Vender / Innocent Child
kaboose	Day Vig / Enabler	Unlynchable / VT	Hider / Gladiator
rabble rabble rabble	Mason / One Shot Commuter	??? / Werewolf	Bodyguard / Cult One Shot Goomaker
purple hero	Black Goo / VT	??? / Alien Sympathiser	Cop / Vanilla Cop
Aristophanes	SK (Alien/Replicant Immune) / 1-shot Townie (turns into Survivor on D2)	??? / Tracker	Alien 1-shot Unlynchable / Mafia 1-shot Governor
Mr Elvis		??? / Cop-of-all-Trades	Mason / Mason
Kthxbye	Bloodhound / Roleblocker	??? / Mafia goon	Mafia Compulsive Hider / Mafia Goon

updated

[Kthxbye]

@Kthnx

I had VT twice why aren't you bringing me up as well ?

Shiro Town God Father / VT ??? / Vanilla Cop Bodyguard / VT

L-1 Had Conspiracy theorist twice Why aren't you bringing them up ?

Why bring only greninja up for it ?

Do yo uwant to count how many VT were in the sets ?

Also I am fairly certain CT was in other people sets as well. What you say has no basis.

12 chances at VT and 5 at Mafia Goon with 4 at Were (Goon and Were being equal non PR scum roles like VT).
Only 1 chance at Mafia Compulsive Hider though. 1 chance of 146 actually (not 126)

[Kthxbye]

okay

so

putting this all in spoilers for ika <3

Spoiler: GAMBLER'S FALLACY STUFFS

okay so
Each die roll (apart from the last) I split off into two options - rolling a 1 and rolling any other number. Now, every 1 roll has a 1/6 chance of happening, but as you can see, each individual roll has the same 1/6 chance. It doesn't become more unlikely down the line - it stays as 1/6. In fact, looking at the last roll, each number has the same chance of appearing as the 1. This is the error you're falling into. You're saying that because 1 has appeared so much, it's less likely than any other appearing, when in reality the chance is the same as any other one appearing.

Basically (on a smaller but exact scale) you're saying that there's a problem with 1 appearing so much but there wouldn't be a problem with 2 appearing despite 2 having the exact same chance to appear.

This may be confusing and badly explained, but I tried my best. Any attempt to accuse any other players based on gambler's fallacy is your own fault. If you really think it's Fro99er based on the other stuff? Sure. Just don't let this factor into it.

Here is the problem with all your work: It doesn't at all reflect this game. Your chart and breakdown all revolve around each side of the die being different. In THIS game, that is definitely not the case here.

At any rate, the roles claimed aren't the main case to why Fro99er is a good lynch today.

[Kthxbye]

Ho.....Ly....Shit. That's a lot death.

Okay, so first of all, eat it Ank and d3x. I knew you'd be trouble. Glad they are dead dead dead.

Secondly, we have 2 scum teams in our midst (obvious I know). Good news is they can cross shoot eachother. Bad news is, they are trying to find scum like the rest of us which makes it harder to get a town block going and with all the town deaths, holy shit do we need one.

D1 VCA:

Luna Fox

:

Firebringer

shaddowez

:

mr elvis

firebringer

: west9

Delenn

: hiplop, T S O, Level 1-1,

purple hero

,

BotLane

, Verdith,

kaboose

Verdith

: Inquisitor, Fro99er,

Delenn

,

davsto

, shiro, luna fox, rabble rabble rabble,

Aristophanes

Mr Elvis

: Natrish

Level 1-1

: rabble rabble rabble

Fro99er

:

Kthxbye

shaddowez

:

mr elvis

Verdith

: Inquisitor, Fro99er

rabble rabble rabble

:

purple hero

, hiplop, greys holly

Aristophanes

: T S O,

Botlane

, Level 1-1, verdith, Shiro,

Kaboose

, west9, rabble rabble rabble, luna fox,

davsto

,

aristophanes

Mr Elvis

: Natrish

There is a better than good chance there is at LEAST one scum on Aristophanes and I'd bet at least one more scum and/or werewolf on Aristo as well. Assuming there are two, three person anti town factions, that'd leave 1 or 2 scum/were OFF the Aristo wagon as well. This breaks down like so:

2-3 scum in - TSO, Level 1-1, verdith, Shiro, west9, RRR, luna fox (7)
1-2 scum in - Inquisitor, Fro99er, hiplop, greys holly, Natrish (5)

Current VCA:

Greys holly:

luna fox

,

shiro

,

rabble rabble rabble

These

were on Verdith wagon (the counter wagon to known scum Delenn) before the Delenn flip AND on the Aristo wagon (known town) at the end of D1.

Now if I were a betting man (I am), I'd say it was a safe bet that hiplop, TSO, Level 1-1 and Verdith aren't Scum, but they could be Weres. Cross reference that with the above and that leaves a good chance for a Were to be found in Shiro, west9, RRR and luna.

TSO is probably town

I agree with this and the reasoning. This being pointed out gives me town vibes on Luna as well. Could be buddying to TSO, but if that was that case, that'd just make TSO all the more town.

@TSO:

Thoughts on who you'd want in a town block if left to lead? Also, thoughts on Luna, specifically p2025?

Finally, this is an update of the list which may help later:

Player Name	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3
Fro99er Greninja	Mafia Gov / Survivor	??? / Mafia Compulsive Hider	Mafia Reflexive Doc / Mafia Compulsive Hider
Luna Fox	Supersaint / Serial Killer (Protection from alien and werewolf kills)	Town Bloodhound / Wild Card	VT / Werewolf Alpha
Greys Holly	One Shot Glad / Doc	??? / Wrong Place at the Wrong Time Townie	Weak JK / Wereparrot
Natrish shadowez	Nymphomaniac / Compulsive Bodyguard Survivor	??? / Ascetic Townie	Werewolf Gravedigger / Conspiracy Theorist
Shiro	Town God Father / VT	??? / Vanilla Cop	Bodyguard / VT
BotLane	Vanilla Cop / Conspiracy Theorist	Werewolf / Seer	Alien Vanillaiser / Mafia Cupid
Davsto	Serial Killer (Immune to Mafia Kills) / Mason Lover	Ascetic / Black Goo	Conspiracy Theorist / Alpha Goon
hiplop hippy love	black goo / 1 shot black goo	Town Lover / Town Compulsive Childkiller	VT / Mafia Goon
Inquisitor Farside66	Wereparrot / Wild Card	Mason / VT	Saulus / WW Blocker
firebringer		Joat / Watchlisted Townie
Delenn	Innocent Child / Alien Sympathizer	Mafia Saulus / Bulletproof Townie	Werewolf Godfather / Vanilla Townie
Level 1-1	Vigilante / Mafia Reflexive Doctor	??? / Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist / Mason Lover
T S O		??? / Lover
Vedith Lizard_Buttock	Vengeful Townie / Mafia lover	??? / Werewolf FBI Agent	Survivor Mason / Lyncher
West9	VT / Cop	??? / Watchlisted Townie	Mafia Fruit Vender / Innocent Child
kaboose	Day Vig / Enabler	1-shot Unlynchable / VT	Hider / Gladiator
rabble rabble rabble	Mason / One Shot Commuter	??? / Werewolf	Bodyguard / Cult One Shot Goomaker
purple hero	Black Goo / VT	Vigilant / Alien Sympathiser	Cop / Vanilla Cop
Aristophanes	SK (Alien/Replicant Immune) / 1-shot Townie (turns into Survivor on D2)	Vengeful / Tracker	Alien 1-shot Unlynchable / Mafia 1-shot Governor
Mr Elvis		Nymphomaniac / Cop-of-all-Trades	Mason / Mason
Kthxbye	Bloodhound / Roleblocker	??? / Mafia goon	Mafia Compulsive Hider / Mafia Goon

[Kthxbye]

5 deaths?!?!? LOL

This is your total thought after D1's events and 5 deaths?

VOTE: hiplop

[Kthxbye]

Cuz you said nothing else. Curious how you come in and say something soon as i vote you though....

[Kthxbye]

hiplop was in neither wagon, i don't think voting them atm is a good idea, and they were strongly pushing Delenn.

Could be a Were. Could also be a loner anti town. The real reason for the vote though is lack of readable ( as in getting a read on them) material especially today.

[Kthxbye]

do

you

have

anything

worthwhile

to

say

?

Like reads, thoughts on deaths, suspects, etc or are you just going to continue to barely defend anything said/posted about you and nothing more?

[Kthxbye]

TSO - My giant list is keeping track of everything. I'm not claiming it will lead to perfect lynches from D2 on, BUT, if I happen to be murderated, whatever town is left have something to build upon later that will help. You can't tell me you don't see the value in VCA can you? As for the discards/claims lists, it's there to help when someone claims some bullshit PR or VT while discarding some PR. I don't believe for a second someone chooses vanilla over a PR. In fact....*brb

[Kthxbye]

Both West9 and Luna claim to have chosen VT over a PR. Luna claims VT over Were Alpha, which if someone really dislikes playing scum, I can understand, but West9 claiming to have discarded Cop and chose VT on D1? I'd be down to lynch that for that alone. I'll have to look back and when W9 claimed this.

If that isn't going to happen, I'm good with lynching Grey, Shiro or RRR. I'm still unsure on luna. VCA says one thing, but her posting pings town to me. Lynching of the previously mentioned 3 will give good info since they are or are on the only current wagon.

UNVOTE:

@hiplop: I KNOW you didn't replace in, which is why I'm so curious as to why you posted nothing of content so far today. Post count doesn't equal content. Could you explain your reasoning behind your list of lynchable players?

[Kthxbye]

Why savage? Possibly because I just lost a shit ton of allies and I'm up against two fucking scum teams and need to figure out who to trust. Why can't you post something non-defensive is what my question is. Looks suspect as fuck tbh

[Kthxbye]

D1 VCA:

Luna Fox

:

Firebringer

Natrish

:

mr elvis

firebringer

: west9

Delenn

: hiplop,

T S O

, Level 1-1,

purple hero

,

BotLane

, Verdith,

kaboose

Verdith

:

Inquisitor

, Fro99er,

Delenn

,

davsto

, shiro, luna fox, rabble rabble rabble,

Aristophanes

Mr Elvis

:

Natrish

Not Voting:

kthxbye

,

Greys Holly

---------------------------------------------

Fro99er

:

Kthxbye

Natrish

:

mr elvis

Verdith

:

Inquisitor

, Fro99er

rabble rabble rabble

:

purple hero

, hiplop,

greys holly

Aristophanes

:

T S O

,

Botlane

, Level 1-1, verdith, Shiro,

Kaboose

, west9, rabble rabble rabble, luna fox,

davsto

,

aristophanes

Mr Elvis

:

Natrish

Not Voting:

firebringer

What I predicted yesterday:
2-3 scum in -

TSO

, Level 1-1, verdith, Shiro, west9, RRR, luna fox (7)
1-2 scum in -

Inquisitor

, Fro99er, hiplop,

greys holly

,

Natrish

(5)

D2 VCA:

Greys holly

: shiro, rabble rabble rabble, Vedith,

T S O

, Level 1-1, fro99er, Hiplop

rabble rabble rabble

: luna fox

Not Voting:

kthxbye

,

Inquisitor

,

Natrish

,

Greys Holly

Although Greys ended up being anti-town, they might as well have been town as far as VCA is concerned since they weren't one of the scum factions.

My money is on Fro99er and/or hiplop being Scum/Were. I get voting at the end to lynch someone with condemning info. Thing is, if they were both town, then every single Were and Scum were on the Aristo wagon/lynch which I just don't believe.

@Fro99er: Why is hiplop scum over you?
@Hiplop: Why is Fro99er scum over you?

@Shiro: Do you have anything to share?

I'm also wondering how Shiro isn't dead. He isn't confirmed town, but if he is town, there would have/should have been 2 teams needing him dead. His alive chances increase if he's on one of the scum teams, but even then, the other would/should have wanted him dead. Note this for end game if he's still around.

An update of the list which may help later:

Player Name	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3
Fro99er Greninja	Mafia Gov / Survivor	??? / Mafia Compulsive Hider	Mafia Reflexive Doc / Mafia Compulsive Hider
Luna Fox	Supersaint / Serial Killer (Protection from alien and werewolf kills)	Town Bloodhound / Wild Card	VT / Werewolf Alpha
Greys Holly	One Shot Glad / Doc	2-shot BP SK / Wrong Place at the Wrong Time Townie	Weak JK / Wereparrot
Natrish shadowez	Nymphomaniac / Compulsive Bodyguard Survivor	Vigilant / Ascetic Townie	Werewolf Gravedigger / Conspiracy Theorist
Shiro	Town God Father / VT	??? / Vanilla Cop	Bodyguard / VT
BotLane	Vanilla Cop / Conspiracy Theorist	Werewolf / Seer	Alien Vanillaiser / Mafia Cupid
Davsto	Serial Killer (Immune to Mafia Kills) / Mason Lover	Ascetic / Black Goo	Conspiracy Theorist / Alpha Goon
hiplop hippy love	black goo / 1 shot black goo	Town Lover / Town Compulsive Childkiller	VT / Mafia Goon
Inquisitor Farside66	Wereparrot / Wild Card	Mason / VT	Saulus / WW Blocker
firebringer		Joat / Watchlisted Townie
Delenn	Innocent Child / Alien Sympathizer	Mafia Saulus / Bulletproof Townie	Werewolf Godfather / Vanilla Townie
Level 1-1	Vigilante / Mafia Reflexive Doctor	??? / Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist / Mason Lover
T S O	Mafia Lover / Mafia 1-shot Dayvig	Black Goo / Lover	Lover / Werewolf Miller
Vedith Lizard_Buttock	Vengeful Townie / Mafia lover	??? / Werewolf FBI Agent	Survivor Mason / Lyncher
West9	VT / Cop	??? / Watchlisted Townie	Mafia Fruit Vender / Innocent Child
kaboose	Day Vig / Enabler	1-shot Unlynchable / VT	Hider / Gladiator
rabble rabble rabble	Mason / One Shot Commuter	??? / Werewolf	Bodyguard / Cult One Shot Goomaker
purple hero	Black Goo / VT	Vigilant / Alien Sympathiser	Cop / Vanilla Cop
Aristophanes	SK (Alien/Replicant Immune) / 1-shot Townie (turns into Survivor on D2)	Vengeful / Tracker	Alien 1-shot Unlynchable / Mafia 1-shot Governor
Mr Elvis		Nymphomaniac / Cop-of-all-Trades	Mason / Mason
Kthxbye	Bloodhound / Roleblocker	??? / Mafia goon	Mafia Compulsive Hider / Mafia Goon

[Kthxbye]

VCA is horrible? How you figure? Cuz it looks bad for one or more of you buddies?

[Kthxbye]

Why the fuck does that make any difference?
The movitations are the same?

Wrong. Unless you're BFFs with the MODs and they TOLD you there wouldn't be an alien faction, you're full of shit. Hell, wanting to be a blind townie for fun is a better excuse than the crap you're spewing.

[Kthxbye]

So you're saying we have 2 vengeful townies? Not impossible, but I'm not buying it for a second. I think you got caught with your pants down and now you're scrambling.

VOTE: Level 1-1

[Kthxbye]

And yes that is a vengeshot claim in case I get lynched

And here we see you don't even know what a vengeful townie does.....

[Kthxbye]

Disregard, I was reading super saint.

At any rate, I don't believe him for a second. If he IS actually vengeful, then town lose with his target. The way he is going about this screams floundering scum. Wagon up.

[Kthxbye]

Here's the deal. A SHIT ton of town have died. IF you were town and are vengeful, that would be 2 town dead from a lynch today and unless the remaining scum teams cross kill at night (and there's a possible 3rd team out there?), town would be fucked. I don't see how anything else is possible unless due to the SK, there were only 2 man scum teams and there were 3 of them...thus, you are full of shit. Your OMGUS vote here is just adding to how full of it you actually are. Floundering scum act EXACTLY how you are now. I don't understand how you can not understand why I see you as confirmed scum at this point.

[Kthxbye]

Lol.
The love is real.

Pls lynch me so I can vengekill sala and make the game better

Here we go!

Also, this only adds to you being scum, NOT to you being vengeful. You claimed this day freaking 1. There are at least 2 scum teams out there that would need you dead if this were true. You're still alive because it's NOT true and the other scum team didn't target you. Your own scum team of course didn't target you either.

[Kthxbye]

Based on BotLane's posts, I doubt you're a Were.

[Kthxbye]

Also guys I know how to appear town now. What you have to do is do nothing, be confused and float in the middle of everything

That's often why Kling gets lynched.

Coaching from your scum buddy.

[Kthxbye]

Okay so I'm starting my looksy at the wagon on me.

First note is that this is likely to not be fully accurate due to the brevity of the wagon.

The first post noting it is 64 and ika's post disclosing that duplicates were, in fact, possible was 108. These posts are 39 minutes and 38 seconds apart. Thus, a lot of it is bound to come down to who was there at the time. On its own, that means that this whole analysis should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Post 75 is the first post where other people start to take notice of the wagon. Purple Hero gets townie points due to asking other people if there can be duplicates and

and

then asking the mod in 81, just to make sure. I feel like only Town would go this extra step to verify that a wagon they were already on because they were suspicious of them was valid or not.

On the other hand, Level 1-1 gets scum points for not asking any of these questions and just getting the wagon all up on me anyway.

In 82 the Hiplop half of the Hippy/Mollie hydra votes me based on the assumption that it is true. The hydra's following posts (83, 85, 92) are a discussion between the heads, and the fact that the discussion took a while leads me to believe that it was genuine discussion over posturing, with a mixture of the tentative vote but still asking about it leading me towards a townier vote.

Luna's vote in 84 confuses me, as it could be questionable, but because I like Luna's play in general I'm willing to let it slide.

96 made me think slightly more town for Level 1-1 because of them being so adamant that they had found scum, but then I remembered multifaction so scum can still find other scum. So I'm just gonna null that.

Greys Holly didn't vote me throughout all this and made it clear in 102 that an answer was being waited for, and that's good.


There we go, that's an analysis thingy. Basically, Level 1-1 seems pretty scummy, Luna was a bit dodgy but frankly the rest of her play undermines this thought, and the rest were almost certainly just misguided Town, due to them still waiting for ika's answer, rather than just instantly going "omgscum".

Day 1 vote analysis is busiwork.

Titus

Here's some soft defense of Level from scum buddy.

p.edit: It's called building a case so everyone else can see how full of shit you are. Plus, if you REALLY were vengeful AND wanted to be lynched, all you'd have to do is claim scum or scum slip.

[Kthxbye]

Delenn is confirmed to not know scumbuddy.

Where?

[Kthxbye]

Disregard. Scum team know's him...

[Kthxbye]

^ also wanting that answer

VOTE: rabble

Hey hippy, you may have missed this so I'll re-post it:

What I predicted yesterday:
2-3 scum in -

TSO

, Level 1-1, verdith, Shiro, west9, RRR, luna fox (7)
1-2 scum in -

Inquisitor

, Fro99er, hiplop,

greys holly

,

Natrish

(5)

D2 VCA:

Greys holly

: shiro, rabble rabble rabble, Vedith,

T S O

, Level 1-1, fro99er, Hiplop

rabble rabble rabble

: luna fox

Not Voting:

kthxbye

,

Inquisitor

,

Natrish

,

Greys Holly

Although Greys ended up being anti-town, they might as well have been town as far as VCA is concerned since they weren't one of the scum factions.

My money is on Fro99er and/or hiplop being Scum/Were. I get voting at the end to lynch someone with condemning info. Thing is, if they were both town, then every single Were and Scum were on the Aristo wagon/lynch which I just don't believe.

@Fro99er: Why is hiplop scum over you?
@Hiplop: Why is Fro99er scum over you?

I'm wanting an answer as well.

[Kthxbye]

Also folks, are we just ignoring Level's obv scum posting today or something?

[Kthxbye]

I was hoping to not have to out this, but look further into the acronym VT

^This does NOT compute with...

So you're saying we have 2 vengeful townies? Not impossible, but I'm not buying it for a second. I think you got caught with your pants down and now you're scrambling.

VOTE: Level 1-1

The mod confirmed it's possible?
LMAO.
I literallly claimed vengeful earlier so no go

Lol.
The love is real.

Pls lynch me so I can vengekill sala and make the game better

Here we go!

I don't understand how this guy can be shown a vengeful claim on D1 and still think it's scum squirming out of a VT claim.

...^these.

For those of you who aren't seeing it, they claim to have not wanted to say VT wasn't 'Vanilla Town' then hold their hat on the fact they claimed it on D1. Since there aren't signatures, I'm saying one of them messed up with the fake claim the other placed D1 and then the other came in to try and salvage the fake claim.

@West9: You are certainly correct. One of us is scum, the other is me. Your reasoning behind it is off as it was already talked about when I said the excuse of wanting to be VT over cop for the lulz was at least better (although only slightly) than w/e crap excuse Level gave....you know, before they went with VT standing for vengeful not vanilla....

@rabble, you are L-2 and have nothing to say? Town is waaay down in numbers and I feel like as town you should want to defend yourself a little bit...or at least push a case or something?

[Kthxbye]

D1 VCA:

Luna Fox

:

Firebringer

Natrish

:

mr elvis

firebringer

: west9

Delenn

: hiplop,

T S O

,

Level 1-1

,

purple hero

,

BotLane

, Verdith,

kaboose

Verdith

:

Inquisitor

, Fro99er,

Delenn

,

davsto

, shiro,

luna fox

,

rabble rabble rabble

,

Aristophanes

Mr Elvis

:

Natrish

Not Voting:

kthxbye

,

Greys Holly

---------------------------------------------

Fro99er

:

Kthxbye

Natrish

:

mr elvis

Verdith

:

Inquisitor

, Fro99er

rabble rabble rabble

:

purple hero

, hiplop,

greys holly

Aristophanes

:

T S O

,

Botlane

,

Level 1-1

, verdith, Shiro,

Kaboose

, west9,

rabble rabble rabble

,

luna fox

,

davsto

,

aristophanes

Mr Elvis

:

Natrish

Not Voting:

firebringer

What I predicted yesterday:
2-3 scum in -

TSO

,

Level 1-1

, verdith, Shiro, west9,

RRR

,

luna fox

(7)
1-2 scum in -

Inquisitor

, Fro99er, hiplop,

greys holly

,

Natrish

(5)

D2 VCA:

Greys holly

: shiro,

rabble rabble rabble

, Vedith,

T S O

,

Level 1-1

, fro99er, Hiplop

rabble rabble rabble

:

luna fox

Not Voting:

kthxbye

,

Inquisitor

,

Natrish

,

Greys Holly

D3 VCA:

Hiplop

:

luna fox

Level 1-1

:

Kthxbye

,

rabble rabble rabble

rabble rabble rabble

: Hiplop, west9, verdith,

luna fox

, fro99er

Kthxbye

:

Level 1-1

An update of the list which may help later:

Player Name	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3
Fro99er Greninja	Mafia Gov / Survivor	??? / Mafia Compulsive Hider	Mafia Reflexive Doc / Mafia Compulsive Hider
Luna Fox	Supersaint / Serial Killer (Protection from alien and werewolf kills)	Town PGO / Wild Card	VT / Werewolf Alpha
Greys Holly	One Shot Glad / Doc	2-shot BP SK / Wrong Place at the Wrong Time Townie	Weak JK / Wereparrot
Natrish shadowez	Nymphomaniac / Compulsive Bodyguard Survivor	Vigilant / Ascetic Townie	Werewolf Gravedigger / Conspiracy Theorist
Shiro	Town God Father / VT	??? / Vanilla Cop	Bodyguard / VT
BotLane	Vanilla Cop / Conspiracy Theorist	Werewolf / Seer	Alien Vanillaiser / Mafia Cupid
Davsto	Serial Killer (Immune to Mafia Kills) / Mason Lover	Ascetic / Black Goo	Conspiracy Theorist / Alpha Goon
hiplop hippy love	black goo / 1 shot black goo	Town Lover / Town Compulsive Childkiller	VT / Mafia Goon
Inquisitor Farside66	Wereparrot / Wild Card	Mason / VT	Saulus / WW Blocker
firebringer		Joat / Watchlisted Townie
Delenn	Innocent Child / Alien Sympathizer	Mafia Saulus / Bulletproof Townie	Werewolf Godfather / Vanilla Townie
Level 1-1	Vigilante / Mafia Reflexive Doctor	Vengeful Townie / Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist / Mason Lover
T S O	Mafia Lover / Mafia 1-shot Dayvig	Black Goo / Lover	Lover / Werewolf Miller
Vedith Lizard_Buttock	Vengeful Townie / Mafia lover	??? / Werewolf FBI Agent	Survivor Mason / Lyncher
West9	VT / Cop	??? / Watchlisted Townie	Mafia Fruit Vender / Innocent Child
kaboose	Day Vig / Enabler	1-shot Unlynchable / VT	Hider / Gladiator
rabble rabble rabble	Mason / One Shot Commuter	Cult Psycho Trooper[/b][/color] / Werewolf	Bodyguard / Cult One Shot Goomaker
purple hero	Black Goo / VT	Vigilant / Alien Sympathiser	Cop / Vanilla Cop
Aristophanes	SK (Alien/Replicant Immune) / 1-shot Townie (turns into Survivor on D2)	Vengeful / Tracker	Alien 1-shot Unlynchable / Mafia 1-shot Governor
Mr Elvis		Nymphomaniac / Cop-of-all-Trades	Mason / Mason
Kthxbye	Bloodhound / Roleblocker	??? / Mafia goon	Mafia Compulsive Hider / Mafia Goon

Mafia may or may not have another member. Same goes for the Were's and el Cult. There are 4 flipped anti-town factions already. Hell, for all I know, I may be the last town if the supposed MOD mistake regarding Verdith is a fabrication. I didn't actually see the 'mistake' so I'm going off what other flipped town are going off of. If Verdith and I are town, with all the flipped town, I'm guessing we have near a 100% chance to lynch anti-town as long as we vote together.

As for all the rest (West9, Fro99er, Shiro, hiplop), the majority are probably scum of some faction and are going to be hard to spot since they want to lynch each other as well. Hell, town may have already lost this depending on the numbers left in each faction.

Basically....fuck this game.

@Verdith: you got anything? You're basically the only person left I don't not trust and it's certainly not due to your insight thus far in the game...Of 34 posts, you're kinda sitting the sidelines here bro.

On second thought, hell, for all I know, you're alive because the Cult already got to you and I'm last town standing......Fuck me....

Yeah....I'm pretty much done. Which ever side has the most players left, just vote off your team and I'll vote the larger side. The games obviously not over or ending in a draw so one side has more than the others or enough to cause a lynch with my vote.

The more I think about it, the more I am getting the feeling I'm just a fucking pawn in this fucking game now. Band up and I'll just join the largest wagon. It may be the alcohol, but the more I type and think about this game while typing this, the more I think I'm just plain fucked. GG. Can't wait till end game so I can chastise all the stupid fucking dead town that sucked it up this game.

Fuck it all if I'm not super pissed at myself for even going through the VCAs above and taking the time to update everything and try and figure out what it all means....

...aaaaaaand I'm fucking out. Do what you will.

[Kthxbye]

Are you counting SK as a anti-town faction? In that case, it's actually five.
With so many factions, I think it's really likely that most of them are tiny.

Name them.

[Kthxbye]

Huh...didn't even catch that. Well, that means some scum teams might only be 2 players strong. Maybe even solo judging by last nights body count. Cult at least has 1 left (the recruiter or whatever it's called). Unless there's a multi shot town vig, there's one more at least. Depending on if there were cross kills or not, town might still have a shot? If the cult maker made another member last night that didn't get NKed, there's 3? Anyone know if the person would flip cult if nked the same night they were recruited? I'm phone posting here else I'd look it up.

[Kthxbye]

Honestly, I'm not too worried about it. Fro99er has been on my scum list for a loooong ass time. I'm good with lynching him today. At this stage, I've already kinda given up. Every time I look at the town dead list, I lose even more interest in trying to figure this game out. I'm good with just going with my gut and if town happens to win in the process, well the gut is good. If not, I'll just look at all the dead town bonehead mistakes and shrug it off.

[Kthxbye]

Fuck it.

VOTE: Fro99er

That's L-1. If I just lost us the game, well, my bad....ish.

P.edit: almost ika....almost

[Kthxbye]

Soooo, we should conf town you by lynching you yes? Why didnt you just hammer yourself to prove it?

[Kthxbye]

If you are actually town, I will join you on either W9 or hiplop.

[Kthxbye]

Hell, I'll join you on anyone if you prove to be unlynchable

[Kthxbye]

Gotta see the unlynchable.

[Kthxbye]

If you're unlynchable town, you're getting nk'ed anyway right?

[Kthxbye]

You won't be lynched if you prove to be unlynchable. Plus, if there are multiple kills tonight, they may both avoid you to not cross kill.

[Kthxbye]

You're conf town when ika posts, not a moment earlier

[Kthxbye]

Fun game. Shiro and I totes rocked this ending. Good thing y'all got rid of botlane else it woulda been a slaughter

[Kthxbye]

It's ok, we were judging your actions from the sides.

What was the verdict?

[Kthxbye]

oh come on....my 'town' hissy fit made me look town as hell.