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for day 1 we should essentially treat this as one game. once we have things like investigation results tomorrow that changes things
, and obviously if someone makes an uncountered claim in one game, we should leave that person alone, but lynching two different people seems way too easy for scum in both games to manipulate. if we settle on one person, the odds that we get a hit in at least one game go up by an enormous amount. like, if a given player is scum in one game and town in the other, if it's looking like they'll get lynched in exactly one game, they'll logically want to do everything in their power to make sure it's the town game where they die. by lynching one person in both games you deny them that opportunity. yeah, there's a pretty low chance of one person being scum in both games, so statistically it's likely to be a mislynch in one, but that same math applies to lynching anyone (no matter who dies, the odds are not in our favor). sometimes you get a mislynch. you just gotta not repeat that mistake and then you win.
That said, this feels scummy, especially bolded. Sounds like bad faith gamesolving.
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Post #72 (isolation #4) » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:12 pm
Postby Pine »
I feel like prettt much anyone who votes in a Micro this small is reckless, but paradoxically I find it hard to fault them for it, given prevailing culture regarding RVS/early game votes. It’s pretty null.
I don’t have a problem with Persivul yet, and xyzzy’s vote isn’t why I’m suspicious of them.
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Post #82 (isolation #5) » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:19 am
Postby Pine »
xyzzy I think your plan is reductive and makes unreasonable assumptions about how others would react to a situation I suspect you may have found yourself in. QED, made in bad faith
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Post #96 (isolation #6) » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:41 pm
Postby Pine »
In post 90, Irrelephant11 wrote:I’m only realizing now that there’s good odds 2/3 of you are scum
Xyzzy, Pine, how do you each read Elsa?
See the bolded below:
In post 82, Pine wrote:xyzzy I think your plan is reductive and makes unreasonable assumptions about how others would react to a situation I suspect you may have found yourself in. QED, made in bad faith
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Post #107 (isolation #7) » Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:21 am
Postby Pine »
In post 100, Persivul wrote:Idea: we play this as 2 separate games. All posts for now are on one game. We set our own deadline for that game. Then we move on to the other with the mod's deadline.
Thoughts?
This idea sounds suboptimal, but I honestly can't put my finger on why.
In post 27, Pine wrote:BEHOLD IT IS I, PINE, IN MY FIRST GAME IN LIKE SIX MONTHS
So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.
Town pings.
Why town pings for an unnecessary claim?
If he's lying, that's scummy. If he's telling the truth, he narrowed down the NK pool in setups which likely rely heavily on PRs.
In my experience, laying out strict dichotomies like this usually indicates a flawed model. Your assumption is "I wouldn't do that as Town, so therefore a false claim must be scum." Well I ain't you, mate.
In post 50, Taly wrote:Yeah, I like the reasoning he gave, but then the same type of thing I felt odd about Irrelephant doing, I saw in Elsa's post. (filtered banter, quick back and forth with an equally quick end)
It's early. That seems pretty normal to me. No offense, but I find your in-depth posts to be weird this early.
Agreed. Not necessarily scummy, though, Taly does this.
Hey, I've got an idea - you could actually, you know...explain the reason.
Some reasons are defeated through explanation. Unfortunately, Taly's analysis in 118 is spot-on, and therefore defeated. The claim was to see what you people would do with it.
In post 107, Pine wrote:In my experience, laying out strict dichotomies like this usually indicates a flawed model. Your assumption is "I wouldn't do that as Town, so therefore a false claim must be scum." Well I ain't you, mate.
Call me old school. I understand that Lynch All Liars has gone out of fashion, but I think that's a mistake.
It isn't that it's gone out of fashion, it's that the core flaw has been discovered and dissected, and the strategy as a whole has been discarded. The fact of the matter is that there are numerous good reasons for Townies to tell less than the truth, and enforcing the old LaL strategy limits viable strategies.
Case in point, you pushing my claim too hard and stubbornly forcing your false dichotomy has exposed the gambit and halted the flow of really solid reactions from people who didn't know how to handle it.
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Post #125 (isolation #10) » Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:48 am
Postby Pine »
Ugh, this is pissing me off, I can't let it go there.
Some of the best scumhunting strategies revolve around putting people into uncomfortable, unfamiliar situations, and seeing how they react in an organic way. Dogmatically sticking to old models (like LaL) actually benefits scum because it allows them to fall back on
established protocol
. Just like polite platitudes allow a socially uncomfortable person to handle a new situation, black-and-white scumhunting strategies allow scum to anticipate and conform to your expectations.
Persivul, your dogged determination and blind insistence on absolutist truths strikes me as Town. Don't blow it by sabotaging the cause.
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Post #128 (isolation #11) » Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:35 am
Postby Pine »
In post 126, Elsa Jay wrote:I thought I was doing a decent job in causing uncessacary conflict to draw out scum by being ignorant and seeing who would gun for me.
Considering my next post that's right after that is talking non mech and you don't talk about that boy what cherry pick posting.
Says the person who's done nothing but mech talk, and precious little of that.
In post 126, Elsa Jay wrote:I thought I was doing a decent job in causing uncessacary conflict to draw out scum by being ignorant and seeing who would gun for me.
Can I have some townread now?
Sure.
Now that we're past the whole Pine VT/VT
reaction test BS that was very obv a test
I'm gonna go and check
who fell for that
because it's something that on the surface. Yes it looks objectively scummy and scum are most likely to jump on that then not. Town will give it another glance
Cool story. However, given that we've never (to my recollection and your user profile) played a game together or significantly interacted before, I don't buy it.
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Post #159 (isolation #16) » Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:34 am
Postby Pine »
In post 152, xyzzy wrote:
do you genuinely believe that someone with both a mafia role and a townie role would have absolutely no incentive to prioritize one over the other w/r/t their own death? like I'm only acting in bad faith if my point is wrong. so is it?
That’s a fair question. I don’t know, I haven’t ever been put in that position before. I’ll think on it.
Cool story. However, given that we've never (to my recollection and your user profile) played a game together or significantly interacted before, I don't buy it.
I'm Maria you dingbat <3
Oh
Hmm
Recalibration required. Not when buzzed and wrapping presents for Pinecone
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Post #176 (isolation #22) » Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:45 am
Postby Pine »
Actually, if you carefully read my response, you’ll find it contains a real reason.
Given that you’ll miss it again, I’ll spell it out: your self-concern and anxiety come off as scummy, particularly when coupled with your apparently agenda-based posting.
In post 186, Pine wrote:Re: the interaction with Maki, it was invalidated when she identified herself.
Pine, can you tell me why that, just because Maki is not who you thought they were, you're changing to a meta-read on the slot? What about the actions she already did? Do you townread her for those actions, or is it really only retroactive since you know they are Maria now?
Much of my read on Maki was predicated on them being a relatively new player with no personal history and (likely) a poorly-defined meta. Maki=Maria invalidated all those assumptions.
“They’ve likely had worse” is a condescending excuse which is dismissive of a very real thing. It costs you nothing to respect their identity.
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Post #228 (isolation #29) » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:55 am
Postby Pine »
@Mod: I’m on vacation in Vermont with my family through the new year. Not quite V/LA, but can we get a small extension due to ongoing holiday shenanigans? Should be good after the first.
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Post #241 (isolation #31) » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:55 am
Postby Pine »
In post 237, Elsa Jay wrote:See, the problem is that my PR style requires I be petty and kill you for making me reveal now. This is why I didn't want to reveal day 1. I'm fine with dying now, but
I wanted to help the cop tommorow
.
As for Claiming, I'm not getting lolhammered without claiming so scum have an excuse. The bird game had me as a safety net anyway.
Wait a tick, bolded is super hinkey. The Cop in Bird is Macho, and I don’t think anyone drawing the Doc would have forgotten that detail. I mean, think. You draw the Doc role, look at setup, and your first reaction would be “shit, I can’t protect the cop.”
This professed strategy reeks of “forgot the details.”
Seriously considering a Bird vote on Elsa regardless of claim now.
In post 361, Elsa Jay wrote:Don't worry Pine, that just confirms everything we need.
The elephant is townread, and I like Pers more, so... This may confirm him as town in C14 as well if he's scum here.
VOTE: B7 Taly
We don't even lose if we get this wrong, Pine. We only lose if we no lynch at this point.
Agree. A 2 player scum team is highly unlikely to bus D1, so that left Pine or Taly. I thought it was Pine, but if there's no CC to his claim, that means Taly.
Oh, shit, that’s a really solid point. Yeah, I buy that.
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Post #412 (isolation #40) » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:32 pm
Postby Pine »
Okay, C14:
1. Pine - Seer
2. Taly
3. xyzzy
4. Elsa Jay
- Dead VT
5. Persivul
6. Irrelephant11 - Cop
7. Maki Harukawa
- Dead VT
Unfortunately, neither investigation was helpful. Irrelephant investigated me when my claim clears me, and I investigated the NK. That leaves us three choices:
2. Taly
3. xyzzy
5. Persivul
I have the strongest Town vibes from Persivul, but that puts me in the odd position of wondering...are Taly and xyzzy
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Post #413 (isolation #41) » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:33 pm
Postby Pine »
On second thought, Irrelephant is absolutely ballsy enough to pre-emptively claim Cop. We're in 3:2 LYLO, so he has nothing to lose. Balls, there goes that POE.
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Post #478 (isolation #45) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:43 am
Postby Pine »
Wow, there’s just...a whole bunch of strawman from Taly that I don’t have the ability to unpack in a phonepost. That said, the vast majority of the explanations demanded I’ve already given
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Post #482 (isolation #47) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:50 am
Postby Pine »
In post 480, Taly wrote:If someone actually looked an inch into any C14-oriented posts I've made this dayphase so far; if you don't think I'm confscum for some misconstrued reason, then it's not hard to figure me out here.
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Post #494 (isolation #54) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:00 am
Postby Pine »
In post 480, Taly wrote:If someone actually looked an inch into any C14-oriented posts I've made this dayphase so far; if you don't think I'm confscum for some misconstrued reason, then it's not hard to figure me out here.
This is a pretty strong soft towards a Seer CC.
Confirm it and we gladiate. Deny it and I apologize for misunderstanding.
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Post #500 (isolation #57) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:17 am
Postby Pine »
Also, I’ve understood most of your posts just fine, barring the B7 vote I misread. It’s why I’ve come to the conclusion that you’re most likely a VT.
PE: There’s a 50/50 chance Seer is just a named Townie, and scum!me killing the realSeer!Taly just gets me turbo-lynched in 2:1 LYLO for a loss. It doesn’t make sense.
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Post #507 (isolation #59) » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:24 am
Postby Pine »
I can think of absolutely no reason not to fullclaim in Town!Taly's position.
I mean, imagine for a sec that Taly is the Seer. CC, boom, set up 1v1 with guaranteed scum. Now imagine I'm telling the truth, and I am the Seer (this it the real scenario). Town!Taly in this situation is softing my role, and instead of vindictively demanding his head, I'm giving him repeated chances to back down. There's no other Seer claim, and it's an open setup.
Taly, why in the fuck won't you at LEAST answer xyzzy and I about your softclaims?