Micro 839: Two-in-One (its over)

[Pine]

BEHOLD IT IS I, PINE, IN MY FIRST GAME IN LIKE SIX MONTHS

So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.

[Pine]

Oh, you.

<3 xyzzy

[Pine]

BEHOLD IT IS I, PINE, IN MY FIRST GAME IN LIKE SIX MONTHS

So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.

Town pings.

How do you feel about

Elsa

and

Irrelephant

?

p-edit

Still waiting for your thoughts on

xyzzy

.

Yeah, but...Townpings from me ought to be viewed with suspicion. Just sayin'.

Also, pretty sure double-lynching is not a good idea. That might sound self-serving, but I dun currr

[Pine]

So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.

The only town motivation to declare that would be to play D1 wifom bullshit like A50 does.

I like lynching A50 early.

VOTE: 1 Pine
VOTE: 2 Pine

Nope, not the only reason

Yeah, but...Townpings from me ought to be viewed with suspicion. Just sayin'.

So why comment on people reading you and not your thoughts on them?

Keeping it light so far. *thumbsup*

for day 1 we should essentially treat this as one game. once we have things like investigation results tomorrow that changes things

, and obviously if someone makes an uncountered claim in one game, we should leave that person alone, but lynching two different people seems way too easy for scum in both games to manipulate. if we settle on one person, the odds that we get a hit in at least one game go up by an enormous amount. like, if a given player is scum in one game and town in the other, if it's looking like they'll get lynched in exactly one game, they'll logically want to do everything in their power to make sure it's the town game where they die. by lynching one person in both games you deny them that opportunity. yeah, there's a pretty low chance of one person being scum in both games, so statistically it's likely to be a mislynch in one, but that same math applies to lynching anyone (no matter who dies, the odds are not in our favor). sometimes you get a mislynch. you just gotta not repeat that mistake and then you win.

That said, this feels scummy, especially bolded. Sounds like bad faith gamesolving.

[Pine]

I feel like prettt much anyone who votes in a Micro this small is reckless, but paradoxically I find it hard to fault them for it, given prevailing culture regarding RVS/early game votes. It’s pretty null.

I don’t have a problem with Persivul yet, and xyzzy’s vote isn’t why I’m suspicious of them.

[Pine]

xyzzy I think your plan is reductive and makes unreasonable assumptions about how others would react to a situation I suspect you may have found yourself in. QED, made in bad faith

Pine, how do you feel about xyzzy and persival putting you at L-2 in both games at once for you claiming early?

How do

you

feel about it?

Ahh, the old "I know you are but what am I?" Trick. Amazing skillset to have.

That is not what happened there. The quoted accusation is disingenuous

[Pine]

I’m only realizing now that there’s good odds 2/3 of you are scum


Xyzzy, Pine, how do you each read Elsa?

See the bolded below:

xyzzy I think your plan is reductive and makes unreasonable assumptions about how others would react to a situation I suspect you may have found yourself in. QED, made in bad faith

Pine, how do you feel about xyzzy and persival putting you at L-2 in both games at once for you claiming early?

How do

you

feel about it?

Ahh, the old "I know you are but what am I?" Trick. Amazing skillset to have.

That is not what happened there. The quoted accusation is disingenuous

Granted, I could have been more explicit, but I find Elsa's conduct a bit hinky. It's not a strong read, but it suggests an agenda.

[Pine]

Idea: we play this as 2 separate games. All posts for now are on one game. We set our own deadline for that game. Then we move on to the other with the mod's deadline.

Thoughts?

This idea sounds suboptimal, but I honestly can't put my finger on why.

Yeah, but...Townpings from me ought to be viewed with suspicion. Just sayin'.

Why is that?

Because I'm a gifted scum player.

BEHOLD IT IS I, PINE, IN MY FIRST GAME IN LIKE SIX MONTHS

So hey y'all. I'm doing a new thing this game. I'm a VT/VT. Discuss.

Town pings.

Why town pings for an unnecessary claim?

If he's lying, that's scummy. If he's telling the truth, he narrowed down the NK pool in setups which likely rely heavily on PRs.

In my experience, laying out strict dichotomies like this usually indicates a flawed model. Your assumption is "I wouldn't do that as Town, so therefore a false claim must be scum." Well I ain't you, mate.

[Pine]

Yeah, I like the reasoning he gave, but then the same type of thing I felt odd about Irrelephant doing, I saw in Elsa's post. (filtered banter, quick back and forth with an equally quick end)

It's early. That seems pretty normal to me. No offense, but I find your in-depth posts to be weird this early.

Agreed. Not necessarily scummy, though, Taly does this.

[Pine]

Nope, not the only reason

Hey, I've got an idea - you could actually, you know...explain the reason.

Some reasons are defeated through explanation. Unfortunately, Taly's analysis in 118 is spot-on, and therefore defeated. The claim was to see what you people would do with it.

In my experience, laying out strict dichotomies like this usually indicates a flawed model. Your assumption is "I wouldn't do that as Town, so therefore a false claim must be scum." Well I ain't you, mate.

Call me old school. I understand that Lynch All Liars has gone out of fashion, but I think that's a mistake.

It isn't that it's gone out of fashion, it's that the core flaw has been discovered and dissected, and the strategy as a whole has been discarded. The fact of the matter is that there are numerous good reasons for Townies to tell less than the truth, and enforcing the old LaL strategy limits viable strategies.

Case in point, you pushing my claim too hard and stubbornly forcing your false dichotomy has exposed the gambit and halted the flow of really solid reactions from people who didn't know how to handle it.

Good job!

[Pine]

Ugh, this is pissing me off, I can't let it go there.

Some of the best scumhunting strategies revolve around putting people into uncomfortable, unfamiliar situations, and seeing how they react in an organic way. Dogmatically sticking to old models (like LaL) actually benefits scum because it allows them to fall back on

established protocol

. Just like polite platitudes allow a socially uncomfortable person to handle a new situation, black-and-white scumhunting strategies allow scum to anticipate and conform to your expectations.

Persivul, your dogged determination and blind insistence on absolutist truths strikes me as Town. Don't blow it by sabotaging the cause.

[Pine]

I thought I was doing a decent job in causing uncessacary conflict to draw out scum by being ignorant and seeing who would gun for me.

Can I have some townread now?

Nope.

[Pine]

Can we try to get out of all the mech talk now.

Considering my next post that's right after that is talking non mech and you don't talk about that boy what cherry pick posting.
Says the person who's done nothing but mech talk, and precious little of that.

I thought I was doing a decent job in causing uncessacary conflict to draw out scum by being ignorant and seeing who would gun for me.

Can I have some townread now?

Sure.
Now that we're past the whole Pine VT/VT

reaction test BS that was very obv a test

I'm gonna go and check

who fell for that

because it's something that on the surface. Yes it looks objectively scummy and scum are most likely to jump on that then not. Town will give it another glance

[Pine]

Obviously.

[Pine]

Pray tell, what purpose does such a threat serve? Asking for a friend.

[Pine]

Because teasing my friends entertains me.

Cool story. However, given that we've never (to my recollection and your user profile) played a game together or significantly interacted before, I don't buy it.

[Pine]

do you genuinely believe that someone with both a mafia role and a townie role would have absolutely no incentive to prioritize one over the other w/r/t their own death? like I'm only acting in bad faith if my point is wrong. so is it?

That’s a fair question. I don’t know, I haven’t ever been put in that position before. I’ll think on it.

Merry Xmas to those who celebrate it!

[Pine]

Because teasing my friends entertains me.

Cool story. However, given that we've never (to my recollection and your user profile) played a game together or significantly interacted before, I don't buy it.

I'm Maria you dingbat <3

Oh

Hmm

Recalibration required. Not when buzzed and wrapping presents for Pinecone

[Pine]

Also <3

[Pine]

All glory and approbation to a considerate mod.

[Pine]

Because you’re scummy bro. Asking what you’re doing wrong is another example of it - scum is self-concerned and anxious. Town just IS.

[Pine]

Hmmm.

That gives me an idea for a whole new strategy for scumhunting. This probably isn’t the right game to deploy it though, given the dual game.

[Pine]

Actually, if you carefully read my response, you’ll find it contains a real reason.

Given that you’ll miss it again, I’ll spell it out: your self-concern and anxiety come off as scummy, particularly when coupled with your apparently agenda-based posting.

[Pine]

Re: the interaction with Maki, it was invalidated when she identified herself.

[Pine]

Gender is not a dichotomy.

Respect their wishes.

[Pine]

Re: the interaction with Maki, it was invalidated when she identified herself.

Pine, can you tell me why that, just because Maki is not who you thought they were, you're changing to a meta-read on the slot? What about the actions she already did? Do you townread her for those actions, or is it really only retroactive since you know they are Maria now?

Much of my read on Maki was predicated on them being a relatively new player with no personal history and (likely) a poorly-defined meta. Maki=Maria invalidated all those assumptions.

“They’ve likely had worse” is a condescending excuse which is dismissive of a very real thing. It costs you nothing to respect their identity.

[Pine]

But the first impression was based on a faulty assumption.

Not

throwing it away would just be stubbornness.

Besides, I still haven't re-evaluated in the new light. It might not go well for Makiria.

[Pine]

Pretty sure the best lynch is Elsa here

[Pine]

Dude, Taly, I’ve pretty extensively discussed my suspicions of Elsa. ISO me.

[Pine]

@Mod: I’m on vacation in Vermont with my family through the new year. Not quite V/LA, but can we get a small extension due to ongoing holiday shenanigans? Should be good after the first.

[Pine]

I’m kinda thinking the Doctor claim is fake, meant to draw the real Doc into CC’ing. No counters, please.

Still,

VOTE: C14 Elsa

Tomorrow on the long ride home I’ll decide how to vote in Bird. Not going to lynch claimed Doc on D1, even if I don’t believe.

I think Irrelephant’s actions re:Elsa makes him Town in Bird.

[Pine]

See, the problem is that my PR style requires I be petty and kill you for making me reveal now. This is why I didn't want to reveal day 1. I'm fine with dying now, but

I wanted to help the cop tommorow

.

As for Claiming, I'm not getting lolhammered without claiming so scum have an excuse. The bird game had me as a safety net anyway.

Wait a tick, bolded is super hinkey. The Cop in Bird is Macho, and I don’t think anyone drawing the Doc would have forgotten that detail. I mean, think. You draw the Doc role, look at setup, and your first reaction would be “shit, I can’t protect the cop.”

This professed strategy reeks of “forgot the details.”

Seriously considering a Bird vote on Elsa regardless of claim now.

[Pine]

Hardcore skimming, but I hardclaim not the Doctor.

[Pine]

I’m the Cop. I checked Maki, Town.

When I saw the no-kill, I was really hoping to add your protect to my inno.

[Pine]

Ah fuck, why did I claim. It felt right in the moment, but I just exposed myself for no new info. Shit, being sick makes me dumb.

[Pine]

Don't worry Pine, that just confirms everything we need.

The elephant is townread, and I like Pers more, so... This may confirm him as town in C14 as well if he's scum here.

VOTE: B7 Taly

We don't even lose if we get this wrong, Pine. We only lose if we no lynch at this point.

Agree. A 2 player scum team is highly unlikely to bus D1, so that left Pine or Taly. I thought it was Pine, but if there's no CC to his claim, that means Taly.

Oh, shit, that’s a really solid point. Yeah, I buy that.

VOTE: B7 Taly

[Pine]

Interesting. Taly votes for me in the OTHER game as his OMGUS. Wondering now if he’s scum/scum

[Pine]

Obviously, I misremembered. 375 retracted.

[Pine]

Hmmmmmm that also makes sense.

I am the Seer, with a "not werewolf" inno on Maki.

Fullclaim

: I am Seer/Macho Cop, and I double-investigated Maki N1, with no incriminating results.

[Pine]

Cool

Lynch Taly now

(<3 Taly)

[Pine]

Okay, C14:

1. Pine - Seer

2. Taly
3. xyzzy

4. Elsa Jay

- Dead VT

5. Persivul

6. Irrelephant11 - Cop

7. Maki Harukawa

- Dead VT

Unfortunately, neither investigation was helpful. Irrelephant investigated me when my claim clears me, and I investigated the NK. That leaves us three choices:
2. Taly
3. xyzzy
5. Persivul

I have the strongest Town vibes from Persivul, but that puts me in the odd position of wondering...are Taly and xyzzy

really

both scum/scum?

[Pine]

On second thought, Irrelephant is absolutely ballsy enough to pre-emptively claim Cop. We're in 3:2 LYLO, so he has nothing to lose. Balls, there goes that POE.

[Pine]

I've really gotta stop doing that thing where I go to the trouble of doing analysis, posting it, and immediately seeing the flaw in my logic.

Catch the mistakes before you post, you stupid tree.

[Pine]

imo irrelephant is lying

Calling it.

xyzzy is bussing Irrelephant here.

[Pine]

Look at the setup again, Elsa. There’s supposed to be both a Cop and a Seer

[Pine]

Wow, there’s just...a whole bunch of strawman from Taly that I don’t have the ability to unpack in a phonepost. That said, the vast majority of the explanations demanded I’ve already given

[Pine]

“Strawman” is not a buzzword when it describes a fallacious argument that you then attack. It’s a descriptor.

Also, I think there’s a solid chance Town is going to lose, because I have a hard time seeing scum!Taly justifying this blitz.

Taly

We are in LYLO

Please be careful with your vote

I am a non-counterclaimed PR in an Open game

[Pine]

If someone actually looked an inch into any C14-oriented posts I've made this dayphase so far; if you don't think I'm confscum for some misconstrued reason, then it's not hard to figure me out here.

Wait, so are you countering Seer?

I’ll go 1v1 with you any time you want

[Pine]

I *don’t know yet* who the scum are. That’s the point of being uninformed majority.

[Pine]

imo irrelephant is lying

Calling it.

xyzzy is bussing Irrelephant here.

This remains my best guess, by the way.

[Pine]

Taly, please claim. We’re in LYLO, and xyzzy says you claimed Cop, while you just softed Seer.

Pick a position. You’re otherwise just muddying the waters.

[Pine]

My vote isn’t on him because - again - it’s LYLO. I don’t make votes I’m not 100% on in a LYLO.

I don’t have an individual reason on Irre. This is a read on xyzzy, which appears to incriminate Irre

[Pine]

Seriously, Taly. Unvote and commit to a claim. I can’t take you seriously until you commit to a claim.

[Pine]

If you’re countering me, then I will mercilessly lynch you.

If you’re countering Irre, you and I need to get on the same page and lynch Irre.

If you’re a VT, as I suspect, you need to clear the air.

[Pine]

If someone actually looked an inch into any C14-oriented posts I've made this dayphase so far; if you don't think I'm confscum for some misconstrued reason, then it's not hard to figure me out here.

This is a pretty strong soft towards a Seer CC.

Confirm it and we gladiate. Deny it and I apologize for misunderstanding.

[Pine]

Claims happen in LYLO. I don’t need a stronger reason than that, and neither do they. Stop deflecting.

[Pine]

Then deny Seer.

[Pine]

Also, I’ve understood most of your posts just fine, barring the B7 vote I misread. It’s why I’ve come to the conclusion that you’re most likely a VT.

PE: There’s a 50/50 chance Seer is just a named Townie, and scum!me killing the realSeer!Taly just gets me turbo-lynched in 2:1 LYLO for a loss. It doesn’t make sense.

[Pine]

Deny Seer, or 1v1 me.

Right now.

[Pine]

I can think of absolutely no reason not to fullclaim in Town!Taly's position.

I mean, imagine for a sec that Taly is the Seer. CC, boom, set up 1v1 with guaranteed scum. Now imagine I'm telling the truth, and I am the Seer (this it the real scenario). Town!Taly in this situation is softing my role, and instead of vindictively demanding his head, I'm giving him repeated chances to back down. There's no other Seer claim, and it's an open setup.

Taly, why in the fuck won't you at LEAST answer xyzzy and I about your softclaims?

[Pine]

Persivul had me solidly fooled. If Taly had fullclaimed, I think we'd have gotten Irre, but I doubt we'd have chosen correctly xyzzy vs Persivul.

[Pine]

Crumbing Seer.

While counterclaiming your own role.

Come on, Taly. It was right in front of you.

[Pine]

Hear, hear.

Fundamentals are still key.

[Pine]

I gotta say, Persivul, for all that you kinda rub me the wrong way, I respect the shit out of your game.