Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[Dumb and Dumber]

so,,.. , whos scum

[Dumb and Dumber]

dungeons and dragons??!

[Dumb and Dumber]

Klick, can you give us a quick Pooky case? My understanding is that from my PoV, it's a 1v1 between you two.

[Dumb and Dumber]

If, suppose, the NKs were outside the coalition, and Pooky and I flipped town. Would Chemist have been the next default execution, or Klick?

[Dumb and Dumber]

3 false executions loses the game. If Pooky flips town, and the next NK is outside the coalition, this would leave a 1v1 and 2v1 inside and outside the hoods.
I'm worried that you may be chaining Pooky and mine's executions.

[Dumb and Dumber]

OK but from our POV, at least one of you or Pooky are ultimately planning on forcing a 1v1 with our slot upon the other's townflip, without knowing what sort of replacement we'd be.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I think scumteams with Klick in them have a pretty straightforward win condition: execute in-coalition and don't let Klick die
NKing Chemist works directly contrary to that

Can someone summarize why this logic doesn't work for pooky as well?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I just don't completely understand why the nk seems to exonorate Klick and not pookey. I think I'm missing some context here. For context I've read maybe like 5 pages of the game in total

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

K, I'm planning on it

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Why was Pooky included in the coalition?

[Dumb and Dumber]

VOTE: Pooky
Quicklynch pls

This is what made me a little warier.

Klick, can you give us a quick Pooky case? My understanding is that from my PoV, it's a 1v1 between you two.

He pushed through the obvtown Clover vote yesterday who no one really thought was scum, while ALSO setting up for suspecting me after it went through. When he was at L-1 he posted an 'I give up, go town' post to try and get people to jump off his wagon.

This feels like weak reasoning by itself. I read through the last few posts overnight and thought they actually looked towny.

[Dumb and Dumber]

Intrigued that scum chose to kill Chemist over a stealth hydra.

[Dumb and Dumber]

DnD are you mafia?

that's for you to figure out

ill go read up what happened around coalition time, see what led to pooky's inclusion then

[Dumb and Dumber]

Assume 1 in, 1 out: you have {1v3|1v3} going into the night.

Here, if scum NKs in coalition, you go into {1v2|1v3}, and a misfire D2 means scum either win the resulting {1v1|1v2} on D3/D4 respectively to win the game.
If scum NKs outside coalition, you go into {1v3|1v2} and the same logic but flipped. If town misfires within the coalition, scum either win the resulting {1v1|1v2} on D3/D4. Note that if scum once again NKs outside, it would be a {1v2|1v1}. This does rely on the assumption that there's 1 off 1 on, but that's a safe enough assumption here.

In effect, both plans are interchangeable; the only difference is that scum has a mathematically higher chance of getting caught if you NK in the coalition N1 (1/3 as opposed to 1/4).
This offers little info, and isn't as damaging to Klick!scum as it's made out to be! A Klick who's confident he'll make it out of 3 people, and maybe having a townread partner out of coalition would

want

to go for a WIFOM kill like this.

I mildly townread Pooky's posting. I have seen Pooky deathtunnel before, I do not think that makes him scum. The "Klick wouldn't do this!" argument was weakened when I thought about the setup from a bigger picture. There are instances where Klick is individually scummy - one instance is where Klick argues that Pookyscum wanted to let DkKoba get fired by someone else, and then argues that it's logically valid... however that seems a little inconsistent with Pooky's deathtunnel which came right after that, no? Another one is Klick townreading our first post, which, c'mon, isn't townie. It felt like Klick had an agenda to fire Pooky today quickly and would have to townread us, so found a way to townread that post.

Both heads have not read most of the game, but we shall go through other important parts together. My other head was considering the idea of Klick bussing Pooky, but that is something we decided we'd visit later. We also note the {Pooky-DnD} association read from Klick, which should be reviewed. If we are fired today, our current preferred FyLo fire will be Klick.

VOTE: Klick

[Dumb and Dumber]

1. As I said, it's a safe assumption given the interplay with the gametstate.
2. You're debating possibilities. My larger point was that you're reasoning for what you want to push, rather than solving.
3. You would have to townread us to quick fire Pooky today, else you'd have to take it slow and figure out scum between us.
4. There's an underlying assumption that town continues firing in the coalition. As we argued, in either case scum has to win either of a {1v1} or a {1v2} after surviving D2. The only difference is the D2 survival rate on random firing (9%) which doesn't really matter for scum confident enough not to be the execute.
5. The mathematical optimum has to be weighed along with gamestate. The idea that this play coming from scum!you is rubbish is rubbish, and that is my claim.
6. Why would you be insulted that we are calling that your scum play?
7. Sure - please explain why Pooky was town enough to be part of the coalition, but then scummy afterwards. The majority of the case seems to be the Clover deathtunnel to me.

[Dumb and Dumber]

1. Which means a likely scum fire in the game anyway. Also, from my perspective the idea is still invalidated.
2. That is not the impression I got from selected instances of your play.
3. Again, there's no solid case behind your thinking that - if there is, please elaborate.
4. You are repeating what I said about town continuing to fire in the coalition. If you shoot inside it, it's 1 versus 2; if you shoot outside, it's 1 versus 3. Which is a 66% vs 75% chance of a misfire, i.e. 9% difference. The increase is not significant enough for this to be a high risk play from you.
5. It's only sufficient that you not be the execution today. There are other indirect benefits of such a NK.
6. That is not how we believe you would operate as town.
7. That is a poor case, and a lot of words to say "his Clover tunnel was scummy".

[Dumb and Dumber]

If there's no scum outside the coalition, then a fire on either of you slots is a scum fire, which is great; there will be other information we are expecting to discover through the day that will strengthen or weaken this assumption come D4 on a scum fire.
i.e. if there's no scum outside, then it's {Klick|Pooky} from our PoV, and a Klick fire still hits scum.

The stated points hold validity with the information we have, and I do not foresee that reading more of the game will change much of it. You are free to substantiate your case on Pooky and show us why he's "very scummy" off the Clover tunnel.

[Dumb and Dumber]

I can neither confirm nor deny.

Anyone else want to convince us that Pooky is the best firing today?

[Dumb and Dumber]

Also

I mildly townread Pooky's posting. I have seen Pooky deathtunnel before, I do not think that makes him scum.

This is a very reductive version of why Pooky is scum

OK, can you explain the non-reductive version, with a tldr?

As best as I can understand, your case basically boils down to pooky deathtunneling Clover, and we're trying to get a sense of what else is impacting your Pooky read.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

You're wrong; it's {1v3|1v4} going into the night, which nullifies the rest of your logic.

I read this wrong, sorry, 1v3/1v3 is correct

Also, why are we viable?

Do you think this is likely or just that there's nothing particularly ruling it out

-Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Klick can you give a high-level summary of your progression on pooky throughout the game?
I think that would be really helpful.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I think it's kind of suspicious how DnD is playing as if he already knows I'm going to flip as town and setting up for the 1v1 tommorrow - makes me lean towards Klick town and DnD scum

We do not seem to be in a position where we would necessarily need to set up for a 1v1 tomorrow. The potential value of whatever additional preparation we may be doing would still be a lot lesser than the lost value in derailing the wagon on you.

Do you think the case on you is sound? Why do you townread Klick?

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Klick/Aldusskel is our very preliminary solve.
It's interesting to see that Aldusskel barely mentions Klick or engages with him in his first 50 posts (which I assume are before coalition) except for a light townread.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

A Clover firing would have to be consistent with his previous stances. Also, i feel like you overestimate how shitty of a position it should leave someone in, and I also feel that people are generally overestimating how scummy it is to tunnel on town.

Well, perhaps the idea that I am scum posturing around your townflip shall derail it! DonCorleone, please unvote and engage with us.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Then surely it must be easier to describe the case on Pooky? What did we miss from not having read the game?

DC, why not re-evaluate today? We go into 3:2 FiLo if we choose wrong.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Why is everyone unable to describe the case on Pooky?

[Dumb and Dumber]

Assuming scum!D&D this play makes a lot more sense as setting up Klick -> Pooky or Pooky -> Klick miseliminations.

So please spend some time achieving the correct sort here? Firing Pooky seems to be lazy play.

People are unable to come up with anything more substantial on Pooky than that he tunneled Clover... And apparently I would "obviously" see it if I caught up...

[Dumb and Dumber]

the latter is what in fact is happening

[Dumb and Dumber]

We exe pooky to resolve the slot and see if scum were fighting for clover as a CW or if scum were very comfortable with competing wagons on town EoD1, and we go from there

You enter a 3:2 LyLo on a Pooky townflip, it's important to fire correctly today or we probably lose.
It's much more beneficial to get a scum fire than a town fire today, so it's worth scrutinizing the reasoning behind a Pooky firing as Wug points out.
Please engage with my slot and help me see why everyone's so confident in scum!Pooky? "Info" firings just before LyLo are lame.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

We're at 2v5 right now, right? A Pooky townflip means 2v3 and would require a correct firing both within the coalition and outside. How is it equivalent to a 3p LyLo? It's only mildly better than a full 5p LyLo from a global perspective. Scum NKs the town member in the coalition, making it a 1:1 and a 1:2 and expectations multiply.

Sure, that's the worst possible overall outcome, but any outcome where you fire town is bad enough. You have time to engage and sort...

If we're partners with Pooky this is a great opportunity for a bus, and a Klick townflip really gets us nothing the next day (as that guarantees a firing inside coalition next day, versus bussing and then scoring multiple firings outside the coalition).

Why do you think Pooky is likely to redflip?

Pooky, do you have a rebuttal to Aldusskel's quoted posts? If you're town you should be fighting your death more aggressively.

My other head will be present tomorrow.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Until DnD cares enough to get caught up, I don't really care enough to engage with them; Pooky gets executed today regardless, and either he's scum and I'm dead tomorrow, or he's town and I didn't engage with scum hooray

It's a little annoying that you keep refusing to engage with us. I'm working on getting caught up

I started reading exactly how the coalition ended up going down, and I don't entirely understand DC's progression to hammering the coalition. He was pretty firmly stating around page 48 that he thought that clover was scum, but he ended up lolhammering the coalition (with a Clover vote) as soon as there were 4 votes on it. To me that seems like DC has pretty decent scum equity, with a partner already on the coalition. Also from around those pages, DC/Klick don't seem aligned, so I'm currently thinking DC/Pooky by default

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

And I'm realizing that half the day phase is already gone. Oops, sorry about that.

I'm going to do some reading now

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Spoiler:

Either heal me or towncase clover @koba

Klick swap me for clover

oh i didnt even know the deadline was for day 1 - thought it was just for coalition picking oops

HEAL: clover

HURT: DC
HEAL: clover

This progression does not make sense to me

[Dumb and Dumber]

Pooky, have you played any scumgames since coming back to the site?
If yes, can you link me?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Spoiler:

Pooky's entrance to today strikes me as really town.

Explain.

@Clover: Why did you put Pooky in your coalition?

Also, I'm not voting outside the coalition today. I'm not convinced Koba is scum though.

Sorry, just remembered you said this

Something about his hands-off approach feels distinctly like a town way of approaching a post-coalition fail. He's got this one-track mind and seems set on thinking Wug of all people is the play rn. But it's different from how Koba's doing it in that there doesn't seem to be any clear agenda to Pooky's actions other than solving (whereas from what I'm seeing Koba is setting up like five different things with what they're doing and is kinda just open-wolfing at this point).

VOTE: Pooky
Your scumread on Clover feels fake.

We have less than a day. I'll be leaving my vote here unless this doesn't take off and there's a viable Sleeper wagon.

Klick, at this point was your Pooky read more POE than anything else?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I'm reading through EOD1 - I don't actually get why Klick's pushing Pooky, and I'm kinda starting to get the feeling that Pooky is lynchbait

I also very much dislike that Klick won't engage with us

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Vote count 1.42

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2020-07-07 13:00:00)

execution

PookyTheMagicalBear (4):

Alduskkel, Clover Ebi, Klick, DonCorleone

Clover Ebi (3):

SleeperSoul, Wug, PookyTheMagicalBear

SleeperSoul (2):

Chemist1422, Deimos27

not voting (0):

flavour

mod notes

• the wind was howling last night.
  
• automatic vote counter refuses to count properly for some reason, yay for double-checking votes by hand.

Interesting VC

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I had time today and reread because I thought pooky’s posts here were towny? I feel like I already explained this

DC what changed from this?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I have a tinfoil hat theory that you lolhammered it because it was a viable coalition with your scum partner on it

Now that I'm actually reading through EOD I'm not sure I still think that, but that's what I thought at the time

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I had time today and reread because I thought pooky’s posts here were towny? I feel like I already explained this

DC what changed from this?

- Dumber

Uh, clover flipped green? Duh doy

Can you spell it out for me?

Clover flipped green so I therefore changed my Klick scumread to a townread because

And Clover flipped green so I therefore changed my Pooky townread to a scumread because

And thanks Pooky, I will take a look

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Therefore, pooky probably scum and clover the wagon that scum were very invested in keeping alive to save him

The people who gave me these vibes were Klick and Aldu. They both felt like their push on their respective wagon was stronger than their reasons warranted.

[Dumb and Dumber]

It didn’t feel like there were two town wagons where scum were just tacitly supporting both and letting them play out, but that’s a possibility — if it is, I strongly suspect 1 scum on each wagon

I see what you're saying, and I kind of got those feelings too reading through, but the problem is that I think that Pooky reacted in a townie fashion and that Klick's push felt over-confident and somewhat fake.

As did Aldu's.

[Dumb and Dumber]

Therefore, pooky probably scum and clover the wagon that scum were very invested in keeping alive to save him

The people who gave me these vibes were Klick and Aldu. They both felt like their push on their respective wagon was stronger than their reasons warranted.

What are you even saying bruh

Why would scum!klick or scum!aldus (and especially both of them) be so invested in working super obviously together to lynch one townie over the other townie

It makes like 0 sense

I don't know. I don't think they're both town though.

[Dumb and Dumber]

Right. I don't think that Pooky is scum here though, on balance.
I'm saying that if Pooky/Clover I don't know why Aldu/Klick's pushes EOD felt so agenda driven.

Aldu's doesn't even make sense in a partner-context since he was pushing hard for Pooky and Clover flipped town.

Like I'm saying if Clover flipped scum Aldu's push would look like it came from a partner, but since Clover is town it's just a very strange push and I don't understand what was motivating him so strongly

[Dumb and Dumber]

Right but again, why do that? What’s the benefit to scum?

I have no idea. The game doesn't make sense yet.

I do know that Pooky feels significantly townier than Klick does EOD yesterday.
You're probably not aligned with Klick, nor is Wug.
Wug looks like a viable Pooky partner, and is also independantly scummy. Deimos is probably my stronget townread

[Dumb and Dumber]

and idk why they would both choose to focus on that so hard when there was a juicy clover wagon there for the taking that either could easily have switched to by the end claiming deadline pressure and the need for a lynch

Also I don't think that Klick could have switched to Clover (even with the deadline looming) given his trajectory on him until that point

[Dumb and Dumber]

Therefore, pooky probably scum and clover the wagon that scum were very invested in keeping alive to save him

OK
So who exactly were the people that were pushing really hard for clover at that point?

[Dumb and Dumber]

OK, why are we scummy?

And picking a massive fight over whether pooky is town here is silly because if we're scum we'd inevitably need to have a 1v1 with klick tomorrow anyways. Like it's inevitable. We could just take the easy pooky mislynch, support it, and tomorrow be like 'oh whoops shouldn't have listened to you guys everyone vote:klick'

There's like no reason to pick a fight here anyways.

And I'm not trying to fuck up the day, I think that you lot are wrong. Sorry.

[Dumb and Dumber]

POOKY and WUG

Are you reading or what?

I'm trying, I got up to page 73 when you came back to the thread and the switch off of Pooky to Clover hasn't happened yet.

Like give me a few minutes, sheesh

You think Wug partnered with Pooky tries to get Klick lynched there?

[Dumb and Dumber]

Sure he could have, deadline justifies all

He couldn't have. He didn't set himself up for it

[Dumb and Dumber]

(Klick, aldus) doesn’t feel insane right now

Like I"m up to here and literally saying the same thing as you given the gamestate as I know it

[Dumb and Dumber]

Please vote Pooky DC. I will absolutely BoP it if it's wrong.

Klick would you still do this?

[Dumb and Dumber]

Yes, it’s obviously inevitable which means why is klick not bothering to set up for that fight at all? Whereas if you /know/ pooky is town then you pocketing him (or trying to) by defending him and already starting work on a klick!scum narrative makes sense to me

If pooky is town I don't think either scum in klick/us needs to set up for tomorrow because by virtue of the game's mechanics the push is kind of set in stone. Like just use today to get the fast easy mislynch that literally nobody will blame you for and then tomorrow go have the 1v1.

Klick's trying to just get to that point by rushing the lynch and refusing to engage with us

[Dumb and Dumber]

If anyone did pushing besides me, it was you.

Wug made an effort to get me onboard with clover instead of going to klick or anything and was generally supporting you and advocating in your favour

No? I just read this. She tried to get you to go to Klick on p68/69.

[Dumb and Dumber]

Please vote Pooky DC. I will absolutely BoP it if it's wrong.

Klick would you still do this?

Do you not see how you posting stuff like this looks scummy to me?

I'm aware it would be. I don't particularly care. I'm not going to force him to it. I just want to know if he still means it.

Like if he had said yes I would have just dropped it. I just wanted to know what his answer would be

[Dumb and Dumber]

Wtf is happening here am I just being gaslighted here by the actual scumteam

I was told to inform you that you're confbiased.

OK I actually got to eod. My feelings that I said about 20 minutes ago still hold.

I think that Pooky's reaction to getting wagoned was townie, I don't get this push on him really

Now I'll try to read day2 as it would probably make some more sense now that I read most of day 1

[Dumb and Dumber]

Or wug is just ineffectual scum

Yeah this could be a thing

[Dumb and Dumber]

I still don't get why Pooky is the default lynch today

[Dumb and Dumber]

And pooky, I mean this in a 'no-offense' sort of way, but I don't think you'd take the ballsy move of killing on coalition as scum. Like between you and klick I think klick's more likely to do so

[Dumb and Dumber]

Klick, can you give us a quick Pooky case? My understanding is that from my PoV, it's a 1v1 between you two.

He pushed through the obvtown Clover vote yesterday who no one really thought was scum, while ALSO setting up for suspecting me after it went through. When he was at L-1 he posted an 'I give up, go town' post to try and get people to jump off his wagon.

Also after reading through that whole mess, this feels like you're framing what happened in an overly negative light

[Dumb and Dumber]

D&D opener reads town for not really having any game context. Scum!D&D at least reads the scum PT and gets stuff from that.

Also what kind of read is this?

[Dumb and Dumber]

Am I speaking English? Do the words coming out of my mouth have meaning? Is everyone else just seeing

ooble garble flurgle gooble

and replying with broadly being same and my brain is translating the

garble eeble flagooble garble

into words in English and that’s why everything sounds so fucking insane?

Am I legitimately just being gaslighted rn? What the actual fuck?

OK let's take a step back. Where is the disconnect exactly?

[Dumb and Dumber]

I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY THAT'S OBVIOUS

[Dumb and Dumber]

Pooky's the one who needs to make some sort of wacky play to survive here.

OH here's the NK narrative I was missing before

[Dumb and Dumber]

Klick I actually just read the 30 pages from the failing coalition to EOD, and I'm still not sure why your read on pooky transitioned from a townread to a scumread

It looks like you were pushing him for POE and at some point the read became real but I'm still not sure how or why that happened

[Dumb and Dumber]

Oh, and a (wug, DnD, aldus) lylo is like the worst possible thing in the game and I think town loses

So no, I have no interest in going there if avoidable

Which it totally is

Yeah that sounds awful actually

DC can you even like explain why klick thought pooky was scum yesterday?

[Dumb and Dumber]

you can't actually believe DnD and I are scum who decided to kill Koba-Town then lynch Klick-Town in order to set up that guaranteed scum lynch on D3.

This is like, the exact sort of dumbshit that scum do because they think it’s clever

And I can immediately think of two games off the top of my head where scum have done it (but not outing because I don’t wanna out my main)

Yeah I wouldn't though cuz it's a dumb af plan that could be avoided in multiple different ways

[Dumb and Dumber]

Finally some action, although I'm afraid I'll be busy today.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Pooky and DnD BOTH have this pattern of saying 'no I can't be scum because of X really weak reason' that bothers me deeply
I've been fairly consistent about the main reason I don't make sense as scum here

I mean, consistent sure, bur your reasoning for why you're not scum is weaksauce too

Quoting 1365 and assigning singular motivation to it feels scummy to moi

I don't trust my own reads too much this game though so I'm leaving it up to my buddy to make the final call~

DonCorleone you're tunneling. "If Pooky town then tmi, if Pooky scum you're distracting" read that again and you'll see?

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

ssshhhh there's no need for scum to speak

I think that you're scumread on pooky is overexagerated and doesn't even make much sense either.

He's also making valid points that you're ignoring.
Like you just said pooky slipped wug being his partner, but it wasn't a slip and wug has been trying to get him voted out all day today

- Dumber

(Also I realized I wasn't that good about signing consistently, all posts last night (i.e. the ones with DC) were mine)

[Dumb and Dumber]

Pooky and DnD BOTH have this pattern of saying 'no I can't be scum because of X really weak reason' that bothers me deeply
I've been fairly consistent about the main reason I don't make sense as scum here

I mean I always do that when I think I'm being pushed as scum for dumb reasons so

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Like you just said pooky slipped wug being his partner,

Actually I read that wrong, sorry. I take this bit back.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

this game is wild,

when I'm convinced koba is scum nobody believes me, but now I'm convinced he's town and everyone thinks he's scum.

I must be really off or something.

Also here's Pooky posturing and leaving open the possibility of hammering Koba later if he feels like he can get away with it

Again, a really uncharitable reading of Pooky's posts? He's not trying to create an opportunity in that post to hammer koba at all and I'm quite confused how that's your takeaway off of this post.

[Dumb and Dumber]

This series of quotes makes the change of opinion on Pooky yesterday pretty clear @DnD

Again, this is reasoning that explains a POE read on Pooky. It does

not

explain how or why he became your biggest scumread, or why you think he's more likely scum than my slot. Even the last post that you quoted there leaves open pivoting to either my slot

or

pooky. It doesn't explain why you think pooky is independently scum, and after reading the 30 pages at the end of day1 I still don't know where that happened

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Also Pooky just straight-up ignored this when I posted it to continue pushing Clover

Again, you're failing to explain why Pooky's approach to clover is more likely to come from scum (i.e. as opposed to wrong!town).

- Dumber

Like your'e not explaining a scumread. You're explaining a POE read, which later magically morphed to a scumread, but the reasoning and thought process behind it just isn't there.

[Dumb and Dumber]

1365

Yes, I just talked about that.
You think that post is him trying to wiggle onto hammering koba?

Because that doesn't make sense at all?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

This series of quotes makes the change of opinion on Pooky yesterday pretty clear @DnD

Again, this is reasoning that explains a POE read on Pooky. It does

not

explain how or why he became your biggest scumread, or why you think he's more likely scum than my slot. Even the last post that you quoted there leaves open pivoting to either my slot

or

pooky. It doesn't explain why you think pooky is independently scum, and after reading the 30 pages at the end of day1 I still don't know where that happened

- Dumber

Also Pooky just straight-up ignored this when I posted it to continue pushing Clover

Again, you're failing to explain why Pooky's approach to clover is more likely to come from scum (i.e. as opposed to wrong!town).

- Dumber

Like your'e not explaining a scumread. You're explaining a POE read, which later magically morphed to a scumread, but the reasoning and thought process behind it just isn't there.

DC can

you

articulate in like two sentences why klick is scumreading pooky?

[Dumb and Dumber]

Ah sorry about that

Do you think that Klick's reading of that post makes sense though? Or seems like a reasonable explanation?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

DC can you articulate in like two sentences why klick is scumreading pooky?

Actually I'll just open this to the floor
Can anyone here?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I then ask Pooky a few more questions, which he ignores to continue pushing Clover.

Yeah, I agree this might not be the best way to play, but I'm quite confused on why that's such a major component of your scumread on him.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

It's not simply a PoE read (though that does contribute to it), and it's not just 'Pooky is deathtunneling Clover', as much as you'd like to frame it that way

So what bits am I missing then?

Because that's basically what you gave to me in the posts just above.

2170 describes a poe read
2172 is you saying that he ignored your questions so he's scum.

So like is there anything else you want to point to?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

His scumread on Clover was super fake and he pushed it in an opportunistic way when it looked like he was in danger. The Chemist NK also implicates him because he had by far the most pressure on him yesterday, meaning he had the most motive to eliminate players from within the coalition as opposed to outside of it.

There's your tweet on Pooky-scum

A few things:

- At least partly why I was asking DC to give the answer is to see if he

could

. I'm trying to make a point that he's soemwhat confbiased and isn't thinking about this critically. I'm not sure he can actually articulate why he's following you onto pooky
- I'm not sure where or why the scumread on Clover was fake.
- I guess I can sort of see the oppurtunistic argument but can you provide a few quotes that support you thinking he's being oppurtunistic (i.e. as opposed to just being strongly wrong on a read)?
- Weird nk's tend to happen because scum are planning on pushing some sort of narrative, and well, here it is. I think it's a pretty reliable tell, actually. I think townies to just shrug it off and go 'that's weird' because they don't actually know how or why that kill happened.

[Dumb and Dumber]

2170 describes a poe read

No, 2170 says that Pooky is scummy because he seems to want Clover executed more than he thinks Clover is scum

2172 is you saying that he ignored your questions so he's scum.

God you are a master of reduction

'Klick is scum because I think is scumread on Pooky is weak'
Is that a fair summary of your scumread on me?

2170 literally says that you townread 2/4 members of the coalition and so you're planning on voting one of the other two. It's the definition of a POE read.

And I would say the scumread on you is more 'the thought process leading from town!pooky (i.e. when you put him in the coalition) to scum!pooky (i.e. today when you started off focusing on him because you scumread him over us) entirely seems to be missing and I can't get you to articulate how or why that read changed.'

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

- Weird nk's tend to happen because scum are planning on pushing some sort of narrative, and well, here it is. I think it's a pretty reliable tell, actually. I think townies to just shrug it off and go 'that's weird' because they don't actually know how or why that kill happened.

Can you provide a sample of evidence suggesting this is a reliable tell? NK analysis is a standard scumhunting method and it's a bold claim to declare it a scumtell.

I'll respond to the rest in a bit

I'll have to do some work to see if I can do that without outing my main.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

DC I would really appreciate it if you can engage with me on why you think Klick is right on his Pooky scumread here

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Whoo progress

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Because I think you're confbiased and I want to work on undoing that

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Because I think you're confbiased and I want to work on undoing that

- Dumber

I don't think you can actually articulate the solve you're pushing right now.

You're acting like it's obvious that Pooky Bad and Klick Good but I'm not sure you can actually explain why you think that

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Pooky posts these shortly after unvoting Clover. He has already reasoned out that Clover could only really be scum with someone who was already on the coalition.

And yet his narrative going into the rest of the day continues to be wanting to lynch Clover. He puts his vote back on Clover while supposing that basically anyone on-coalition could be Clover's partner, but also while expressing townreads on the rest of the coalition.

The things Pooky is saying don't correlate with putting a vote back on Clover.

I'm pretty sure this was Pooky trying to take a step back and seeing if your pov made sense to him.

Like you're framing this as him nefariously trying to talking out of two sides of his mouth or something

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Like given that town was going to be executing on-coalition until scum died, bussing off-coalition does nothing bad for that team.

You're pushing things that are technically possible, I guess, but not particularly probable

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

2170 literally says that you townread 2/4 members of the coalition and so you're planning on voting one of the other two. It's the definition of a POE read.

No, 1530 says that. There's a bit more in 2170 that you're choosing to ignore

What parts am I ignoring then?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

VOTE: klick

Hah

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

if that was the plan why is DnD-ScumBuddy going guns out trying to keep me alive?

Yeah maybe I'm biased but I think pooky/DnD is a bizarre take because what on earth am I even doing right now if he's my partner beyond inextricably tying myself to him so that whenever one or the other of us flips scum (and at least one of us will have to by virtue of both being in the coalition), the other person is just next

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

It's not a smart play. If we're both in coalition, and even we vote out Klick today, one of us by definition is going to be voted out tomorrow.

Instead of going out of my way to create unfavorable associatives I could just start setting up the bussing associatives early by calling for Pooky's head today.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I am content for now that I have made some headway in diverting the wagon off of Pooky and onto Klick though

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I wouldn't.

I could, of course, be lying out of my teeth. But that's not how I would play this as scum.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I don't think wug is a viable partner for Pooky either, as an aside.

I do think that independently Wug is scummy though.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

An anonymous head of an anonymous hydra, clearly.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Finally! I'll be around today.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

The fact that momentum is swinging towards me today after working my ass off to save now-confirmed-town Clover is ridiculous to me.

Were you going to be at risk if people listened to your Clover defense?
If town's choices were in {Clover, Pooky} with both town, I don't quite see why it's such a town move to defend one of them loudly.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

My scumread isn't over-exaggerated. Pooky has been scummy and continues to be scummy. Look at his posting this phase -- there's next to no scumhunting, basically just unhelpful interactions and an apathetic move towards voting Klick when it looks like he might actually survive today against all reason. If Pooky were town he'd be like, "oh crap, tomorrow's gonna be lylo, better scumhunt as hard as I can before I get eliminated."

And you don't think he'd fight back as scum?
I can imagine that at least fighting back and having his partner tunnel him sets his partner up nicely; sitting back and just accepting the firing doesn't really sound like a scum!Pooky move either.
Pooky doesn't strike me as the kind of person who resigns that easily as scum.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Has DnD looked bad today? I thought they've looked pretty good.

In fact, I challenge you to sell me on this. What about DnD's performance today do you consider to be so much worse than your own, that you're amazed someone could look at them and come to the opposite conclusion?

Klick, I don't believe you answered this, and I would like to hear this too.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

My scumread isn't over-exaggerated. Pooky has been scummy and continues to be scummy. Look at his posting this phase -- there's next to no scumhunting, basically just unhelpful interactions and an apathetic move towards voting Klick when it looks like he might actually survive today against all reason. If Pooky were town he'd be like, "oh crap, tomorrow's gonna be lylo, better scumhunt as hard as I can before I get eliminated."

I think that you're unnaturally confident on this read, and I disagree that he has not been scumhunting.

[Dumb and Dumber]

noticed he's not the wagon any more
he should be

This is a really banal reason to be voting him

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

What do we think about this:

viewtopic.php?t=83486&f=83&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

I think pretty different to this game on tone and content

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I think pretty different to this game on tone and content

Vaguely having followed select pages of the game, this is where I stand too. The kind of confidence he portrays there and aggression is completely reversed here. Pooky could absolutely be a versatile scum player, but it's more of a "would he do that" instead of "could he do that" for me: even if he planned around dying he'd have done something more is my read.

As to whether one of us is Clidd: it's elementary, my dear Watson

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

And I wield the hammer again. What is life

Yes. And since a town firing is pretty important today, both scum pretty much have to be on the same wagon I think. Klick->Aldu->Wug

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Being a secret hydra is fun

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I'm around for a bit. Do either of you want to talk with me about anything?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I think hard-pushing pooky, whether or not I was partnered with him.

If I was his partner, I'd want the cred since he was going down anyways, and people would stop looking for scum on coalition.
And if he were town, I could get the easy mislynch trivially easily

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I'm legit leaning Klick/Aldus rn

Klick/Aldusskel is our very preliminary solve.
It's interesting to see that Aldusskel barely mentions Klick or engages with him in his first 50 posts (which I assume are before coalition) except for a light townread.

Wug seems a little more nonchalant about the Klick firing even though he prefers it. Aldu and Klick both threw the same kind of shade ("you haven't read the game") at us while being reticent about summarizing the actual case.
Even if Klick would lose the 1v1 tomorrow, they could simply win the 1v1 outside the coalition to win the game. Seems like Wug was scumread widely, too.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

and Aldus/DC/Wug

Not quite right cause there's one more NK first. It'd be another 1v1

You were right: if one scum in coalition is fired, it'll very likely be the town in the coalition that's killed.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Yeah I'm basically at Klick with Wug or Aldu being the partner

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I would appreciate Klick being given a bit more time to respond to some of the recent things said before hammer

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

OK

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Mostly just in case we happen to live in the universe where we're wrong I'd like to hear his final thoughts for later days. That's pretty much it.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Hadn't noticed deadline was that close. Equally it's 2am here. I'll likely be around some before you wake up tomorrow then?

The DnD thing is weird, because the scumread crept up when they decided I was scum over Pooky; Pooky himself made some good points about how it looked like DnD were setting up for being 'right' if Pooky was executed and flipped town. I really struggled to see how they could read D1 and both come to the opposite conclusion that the rest of the thread came to. But then the rest of the thread decided they were gonna change their mind lol so I suppose at least two town have to be wrong there.

I dunno, I definitely have an amount of confirmation bias in finding both Pooky and DnD scummy it seems. I do feel like Pooky is the most likely person to flip scum by play. They were peddling DnD-scum as a theory until it looked like I could be executed, and then they jumped onto me when they could find an excuse to. It's the same 'play dead until they get someone else' shtick he played yesterday.

Note that it wasn't something we decided, it's just that we found there to be no sufficient case on Pooky and townread some parts of Pooky's play. You're admitting it was a collection of several jumbled thoughts, and we weren't nitpick-questioning everything... we just wanted someone to summarize why Pooky must be quick fired today, and at least from my perspective. Also, I would say I'm definitely biased in my reads within the coalition, my partner less so and they independently see it as well.

I don't really see Pooky being partnered with anyone. Do you think Pooky-Wug is viable? What was Pooky's partner doing at the beginning of the day when he was resigned to being fired?

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Whoops. That was... dumb

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

VOTE: PookyTheMagicalBear

We were pretty surprised at the flip, and I'm impressed by Pooky's scum versatility.

Pretty sure DonCorleone is town.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

I think I’d like each of you to scumcase the other

It's guaranteed from our perspective that Pooky is scum, and clearly we missed something if there's convincing evidence from an uninformed standpoint. I'll discuss with Dumber and see if we can evaluate for the partner [of which there's only two options: Wug and Aldu] with another re-read; perhaps that will provide hints about overall scum agenda.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

I'll discuss with Dumber and see if we can evaluate for the partner [of which there's only two options: Wug and Aldu] with another re-read; perhaps that will provide hints about overall scum agenda.

I understand, hence we'll do the quoted soon.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

If you have confirmation that another player is scum you should be able to reread their posts and figure out the scum angle.

I mean, whatever they're doing is automatically the scum angle when they're confirmed to you

Current evaluation is that Pooky's partner outside the coalition was in a strong position; and planned to bus Pooky. This is what they went for without spinning up additional theater (which I expected would be the case in such a plan, maybe to not draw any attention). Wug seems like an obvious execution outside the coalition, so they really just needed to be townier than one other person. This seems to indicate Wug's town.

Now, when my slot entered and began derailing the Pooky wagon, what motivation does their bussing buddy have to move off Pooky? They continue tunneling on Pooky, and if Pooky flips, plan goes on as expected leaving them even stronger, and if Klick flips, great - same with one less firing needed.

Given we're townreading DC, know ourselves to be town, know Pooky is scum, this leaves Aldu and Wug. Given the bussing play is beneficial when Pooky's partner is townread and the opposite if they're scumread, Wug's probably town. This leaves Pooky+Aldu as the solve.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Well, you're right. You would have had to commit to bussing him right from D1 as a partner, which seems... ick.
As to Wug, that's true if you just consider her play, but Pooky would know she's in a bad spot either way; so Pooky would've fought harder, no? Plus, when we were derailing the wagon and there seemed to be equal support for both wagons, Wug could've easily switched.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

I mean, despite Pooky not "fighting harder" he still managed to make it to Day 3. You are right though that Wug could have easily switched and didn't.

When can we expect that Pooky case?

I've already described my take on the agenda. It seems like there's sub-optimal play anyway if it's not you and Pooky... although I've seen scum play suicidally in so many games this year.
If you're expecting something convincing on Pooky, then maybe give us a day. My other head's busy for a couple days so I'll have to do this myself, but I can find the time sometime today. Of course, that is if I find a solid lead - there's a lot in D1 I haven't read, so maybe I will there.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Uhhhh skimmed here and there and I have nothing

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Alternate approach:
Pooky, for this exercise assume that you and I agree you're scum and we're town, can you point out the riskiest plays you made in this game?

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Now how does DnD-town come to the conclusion that Pooky is town and Klick is scum if he didn't even re-read Day 1? It seems pretty irresponsible for someone to barge into town and conclude that everyone else's opinion is wrong without actually doing the work to figure out if they have anything.

It's fairly obvious that DnD did not really care whether Pooky is town or Klick is scum or vice versa - if he did he would've actually done some re-reading before derailing the wagon - instead what was important to him was the game-state AFTER Pooky/Klick being lynched - because both players are town - he didn't care which townie died - he only cared about how to shape the D3 LyLo into something he's almost certain to win.

Why was this not a concern the previous day? I'm not admitting it for the first time here, I've constantly maintained that throughout.
If this reasoning makes us "definitely scum" why wasn't it pointed out in the previous day?

Based on what we saw, no one was able to describe the case on you convincingly. We townread you off certain elements of your play, and assumed agendas on associations. We did read selected parts of D1, around the coalition formation, end of day, etc. and were confident enough that we didn't feel that we required the effort of a full read. We spent time engaging with various people instead.

Yes, we did feel regret, but saying that should lead to us coming out "guns blazing" is wrong. If anything, if we were

planning

to set up a Pooky 1v1 for today... isn't it

much more

likely that we'd have some ammo to attack you with entering today? This was unexpected, and unfortunately the timing of this was such that both heads are a little busy (the other head is completely off for another day I think). As I said, I did some skimming, there's nothing that blatantly pops out. DonC's telling us to explain scum motivation from you, but isn't realizing that he can do that anyway -- just pick out your posts and actions and fit them to an agenda -- which my perspective of information only tells me is valid and nothing more.

How does derailing a misfiring onto Klick put us in a strong position coming into today? If anything, we could've put up a

far

weaker show about derailing the wagon than we did, and it would have resulted in your flip... and if you're town that leaves us in a helluva strong position today. Instead, we took great efforts to shift the wagon towards Klick through individual engagement, and Klick's townflip clearly leaves us in a pretty bad position, arguably much worse than the hypothetical where we're scum who coast on a Pooky flip D3 and leave Klick in a weaker position to 1v1 today.

Sure, if we're scum only one person needs to make a mistake... out of two. While I am Dumb, I'm not so Dumb that I assume needing one out of two people to misvote you doesn't need a convincing case, especially

after

driving the firing on Klick. I'm not trying to keep this fight at a low-energy level, I want it to be a fight with a readable output and not simply describing each other's scum agenda which leaves town nothing to really evaluate with. It is you who are avoidant of active engagement in the post above.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Spoiler:

I’m waiting for aldus to turn up and give thoughts and then I’m voting you, you can self hammer if you like

I should've just self-hammered yesterday

Why self hammer yesterday when it buys you a mislynch and a NK if you don’t self hammer?

I’m waiting for aldus to turn up and give thoughts and then I’m voting you, you can self hammer if you like

I should've just self-hammered yesterday

Why self hammer yesterday when it buys you a mislynch and a NK if you don’t self hammer?

cuz I think the town is even more fk'd now that I didn't self-hammer since we're guranteed 2 mis-executes off the bat now

Maybe DonC is scum lol

I feel like you put me in the noose - dangle me over a cliff then drag me back to torture me all over again

its true but Clover isn't as entertaining as me so maybe you kept me around for the fun of it haha

This popped out as a bit interesting to me.
DonC, I think it may be interesting to ask Pooky to elaborate on 1960 because I don't see "maybe DonC is scum" as being an organic thought myself.
Also, you should ask him about what risks he's taken if scum that contradict him being scum. I think scum being forced to publicly analyze their own play and positions from a big picture view is very helpful.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Where has dumber gone?

I think they'll be back tomorrow. Unfortunately for both of us, I'm all you have for now

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Apologies for my absence
I shall catch up tomorrow

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I don't think you intended to actually derail the wagon - you wanted to put up a strong defense of Pooky-Town so that you'd have something to use against Klick - however you pushed a little too hard and ending up completely trainwrecking the wagon - at that point you couldn't turn back so you decided the heck with it I can always just flip this back on Pooky on D3 when Klick flips town - that'd be 2 MLs Pooky is on and he'd be a sitting duck for me to push out in LYLO.

The key is that your defense of me was not based on me being scum/town - it was based on how you wanted to position your own role on D3 after either Klick or Pooky town was lynched on D2 - you knew that the wagon was either going to be Klick or Pooky - you didn't really care which of us died, you just wanted to make sure you'd have the advantage over the survivor in D3 LyLo.

So we didn't know how to temper our derailment, and instead over-committed to it with continuous personal engagement instead of just putting up a defense and leaving it at that? This is silly. Go ahead and identify the point at which we "realized" there's no turning back, go on.

Our defense of you was exactly based on you being scum/town wrt Klick. We townread you, and found the case on you pretty unconvincing, while we both scumread Klick's actions. Derailing momentum on a sure firing to the other townread slot is a poor method of ensuring an advantage in LyLo.

@Aldu:
What's your individual read of DonCorleone?

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

I have returned, and I majorly fucked up yesterday.
From my pov pooky is confscum (and we shoulda listened to you Klick, sorry)

My best guess for a partner is wug.

I am now catching up

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I’m just curious why did you want to 1v1 me today instead of Klick? who are you really? Somebody I know?

From your pov, what do you think the answer is?
And why do you think deimos died?

(Also as far as I'm aware, neither of us played with you before)

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

It's guaranteed from our perspective that Pooky is scum

Yes, but it isn’t from mine and so I want you to come up with a compelling case for why pooky is scum and not you

heya DC, I wanna talk with you when you're around.

I haven't had time to reread or spend time on this game till just now, but to summarize:

- He's now been the counterwagon to town wagons twice (and is now in another 1v1 with a townie)
- Up until our hydra came in and started pushing klick yesterday, he was very defeated and acted like he expected to be voted out, but he started buddying up to us once we started defending him

I need to do a more comprehensive reeread of his iso tho
(And in general he has a much bigger scumrange than I thought)

I need to reread how he ended up in the coalition in the first place. Is he the person taht Koba insisted on getting in?

And I don't think Aldu is the partner since he's been trying to get Pooky voted out since forever. And Wug, way back on day1, when Pooky was suddenly in the hot seat, started to try to divert things off of Pooky and onto Klick.

[Dumb and Dumber]

The solve is almost definitely D&D/Pooky if [Klick] is wrong, but you lot just gotta work off the foundations we've set today to check the plausible associations of each.

deimos tryharded a lot and this was his result
might just want to sheep it

I think we were framed with that kill
(And I'd also have to say that as either alignment, so eh take that with a grain of salt)

But really tho that team makes no sense and I can go through that again if necessary

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I have some issues with that analysis.
1. I was pushing Pooky way earlier than Wug. What's my scum motivation for that?
2. If Wug is Pooky's partner, then Wug's main alternative to bussing is to try and save Pooky. But that probably leaves her in an even worse spot than if she buses. So I would argue that scum-Wug would be picking between two bad options and would choose the least bad option -- bussing.

It's OK, I have some issues with that analysis too, mostly because you've been pushing him for like forever and your push on him doesn't feel like a bus to me

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Scenario 1: DnD is scum - he did it in order to set up an easier 1v1 later because he felt Klick is a harder 1v1 target than Pooky because most of the game at that point had expressed overwhelming suspicion of Pooky and wanted to lynch Pooky. If he fails to derail the wagon - it sets up the 1v1 with Klick on better footing - since Pooky flips town and he goes into D3 with a 1v1 with Klick where he has defended Pooky-town whereas Klick had just pushed a mislynch on Pooky - this is very good for DnD.

Uhhhhh this could have gone sooooooo badly for scum!us, and backfired awfully. It almost did, we were initially scum-read for doing so, and were in the hot seat for a bit there. We coudl have just ... avoided all of that by saying 'oh yeah pooky is obvscum lol' and vote you.

Like we could have taken the easy route so so so easily. Like I don't get why we'd go out of the way to make our position in the game more precarious when we could have just taken the easy mislynch and then had the 1v1 today.

We're obviously, undoubtedly, in a worse position right now, upon the mislynch, than we would have been if we would had just ridden the mislynch to the 1b1 today. Like we (unfortunately) burned all towncred yesterday ... for what exactly? It didn't make today any easier

It's really a no-lose scenario for DnD - either he succeeds in derailing the wagon on Pooky and sets up a 1v1 with Pooky that he has tremendous upside advantages in that many people already suspect Pooky (Aldus, Wug, DonC)

Again, this is failing to take into account the consequences/reevaluations/gamestate post klick!townflip. Our credit is shot. You're describing this to me significantly easier than it actually is, and the scum motivation you're attributing to us evaporates in that context

Like this is a awful uphill battle that could have been avoided by taking the easy mislynch yesterday.

Like, if scum!us went town!pooky first: easy mislynch yesterday on pooky, one hard-ish mislynch today on klick
vs: if scum!us went town!klick first: redivert everyone off of the easy mislynch, burn all our cred upon the townflip, and look like idiots today when we're forced to go back to the position we hsould have taken yesterday. Just, like, why?

Now how does DnD-town come to the conclusion that Pooky is town and Klick is scum if he didn't even re-read Day 1? It seems pretty irresponsible for someone to barge into town and conclude that everyone else's opinion is wrong without actually doing the work to figure out if they have anything.

You're acting like we read nothing and had no context for the game, and just barged in here with a preconceived narrative that we were going to push regardless, which isn't true.

We both skimmed bits and parts of teh game upon repping in, and my other head actually read through large portions of day1. We had *some* of the context, albeit all of it, and what we had seen from that point seemed to point to scum!klick

It's fairly obvious that DnD did not really care whether Pooky is town or Klick is scum or vice versa - if he did he would've actually done some re-reading before derailing the wagon - instead what was important to him was the game-state AFTER Pooky/Klick being lynched - because both players are town - he didn't care which townie died - he only cared about how to shape the D3 LyLo into something he's almost certain to win.

Again, you're misrepping what day3 lylo looks like from scum!us's pov upon fucking up the gamestate yesterday.

What does DnD do instead? Barely a whimper. Comes out and doesn't even have a case on me at all, two heads they had all night to come up with something and they got nada in 4 days - does that seem like someone who went to bed last night angry that they messed up big time on D2?

Come on man, a few things:

- I was busy IRL and wasn't around literally until now, so assigning motivations or emotions to me when I clearly have not been here is just a bit gross
- this doesn't match the narrative you're pushing in the top of this post - if our evil!plan is to come in and push you today after forcing through the mislynch on town!klick, we should have been better prepared, no? We had all of day2 and the night to plan this out. Our whole plan for the game was contingent on this given our actions yesterday. And despite that, we just - don't act upon it today? How does that make sense as a scum action here given teh narrative you're pushing today?

It's actually a very clever move by him - the harder he fights me today - the more innocent I look tomorrow when he flips scum today if I get him lynched - so he wants to keep this fight at a low-energy level so I look MORE suspicious tomorrow. He needs to create a world where he and I are scum together because then it doesn't matter if he loses the 1v1 to me - his teammate will still lynch me tomorrow and he'll win anyway.

I dont' get it. THis doesn't make much sense either

[Dumb and Dumber]

Whoops

- Dumber

(Aside, you have a really good scumgame)

[Dumb and Dumber]

Where has dumber gone?

But also, sure — pooky, why don’t you elaborate on 1960 like DnD said?

I was busy this weekend but I haf returned

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Anyway this theory died as soon as DonC was willing to lynch Klick on D2.

I think this whole post is revisionist history upon needing to fabricate an explanation for that post days later

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Yes, we did feel regret, but saying that should lead to us coming out "guns blazing" is wrong. If anything, if we were planning to set up a Pooky 1v1 for today... isn't it much more likely that we'd have some ammo to attack you with entering today?

I already explain in my post why you didn't come out guns blazing for me today. If you were town you would've definitely come out eager to scrap and brawl but instead it's been quite dull. You don't want to hit me too hard and make me look good tomorrow after you flip scum today.

But our whole gameplan *(per your explanation for why we wanted klick first out yesterday) is to win a 1v1 against you today

You can't simultaneously argue we went for Klick yesterday to set up a mislynch on you today to win while also arguing we we're setting ourselves up to take the fall today so that you're tomorrow's mislynch bait

That doesn't make sense. Like your narrative has shifted to basically saying we're currently trying to set you up to be 3way lylo's mislynch but that doesn't explain what we were trying to do yesterday with Klick

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

does n1 on-coalition kill make sense if both maf are in the coalition?

Not really

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I don't think you intended to actually derail the wagon - you wanted to put up a strong defense of Pooky-Town so that you'd have something to use against Klick - however you pushed a little too hard and ending up completely trainwrecking the wagon - at that point you couldn't turn back so you decided the heck with it I can always just flip this back on Pooky on D3 when Klick flips town - that'd be 2 MLs Pooky is on and he'd be a sitting duck for me to push out in LYLO.

This wasnt' your narrative at daystart though.
Your explanation for what we've been doing has shifted (and has, imo, become improbable)

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Of course you committed to the defense of me whole-heartedly - the more strongly you defend me - the better you look on D3 when I flip town on D2 lynch - setting you up for the 1v1 with Klick perfectly. If you had put forth just a half-hearted defense of me, it would've looked like scum having info and posturing for D3 and you would've had a much arder time vs Klick on D3 1v1 LyLo.

You probably didn't expect to actually succeed in derailing the wagon on D2

Again, this doesn't actually take into account the fact that our position in the gamestate would be wrecked upon a klick!townflip, when we could have just avoided all of this by supporting your mislynch in the first place.

Like you're concocting elaborate plans to explain scum!us's positioning, but failing to explain why we don't just take the easy route. Like what you're saying is technically possible, sure. Is it actually probable though?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I have caught up, ask me anything

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I don't remember any time when you specifically were in the hot seat yesterday - it felt very much to be a 1v1 betw me and Klick the entire way through.

Iirc DC and Klick and were initially scumreading us for trying to push off of you

[Dumb and Dumber]

Whoops

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Your defense of me on D2 did not make your position more precarious. You would've had a 1v1 today regardless of whether Klick or I had gotten lynched yesterday in our 1v1. Yesterday was trending towards a Pooky lynch followed by a 1v1 between you and Klick on D3 - something which is a bit of an even match between you and Klick if you just go along with Pooky-wagon and you look worse if you mount just a half-hearted defense of Pooky or inacto D2.

What you did instead was a full-defense of Pooky - resulting either in

A) Pooky gets evicted - you look great in 1v1 lylo vs Klick as you did full out defense.
B) Klick gets evicted - you get to 1v1 against someone who is universally suspected by the entire town - again advantage you.

(Aside, I like the term evicted and I might adopt that)

Why did we blow all our cred on Klick yeseterday vs taking the easy vote yesterday and having some cred for lylo.

Your explanation for our behavior puts us in a worse position for lylo than we would have had otherwise. Again, you're ignoring how the Klick townflip would affect our positioning in the game and our ability to push a wagon through - nobody is really listening to us now. We're not in a position to force you through today. Why? Again, cuz we blew all our capital yesterday. Idk why we'd have done that as scum.

(Also I feel like we're just reiterating the main points, but I can keep going on, I suppose)

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

We're obviously, undoubtedly, in a worse position right now, upon the mislynch, than we would have been if we would had just ridden the mislynch to the 1b1 today. Like we (unfortunately) burned all towncred yesterday ... for what exactly? It didn't make today any easier

How are you in a worse position now ?

If you ride with Klick to ML Pooky, you're at best at parity with Klick in 1v1 since you just came in and sheeped him.

Now you're 1v1 against Pooky who every player in the game except you had expressed a willignness to lynch on D2 and has been up for lynch now TWICE at L-1 both times. Add your vote to the wagon and this should be the easiest lynch in your life if you can just get one of the townies who wanted to lynch Pooky on D2 to join you again.

Again, you're ignoring the reality of the gamestate where people are treating pooky/dnd as a hard and tough decision. It's not at all obvious that you're an easy vote today, even though you're describing it as such.

If it's so easy, why have all of DC, Wug, and Aldu been on the fence about where they're voting?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Like this is a awful uphill battle that could have been avoided by taking the easy mislynch yesterday.

This is farcically incorrect on its face, how is it an uphill battle for you? Aldus/Wug both voted for me in D2 - do you think Klick flipping town will make them change their mind on my guilt? Regardless of which one is your scumbuddy - you only need to convince the other person to vote me and you have a packaged win right there - you don't even have to push hard - you just have to make the townie not change his mind. Also DC has voted for me on both D1 and D2 - so you just have to get him to vote me once and have your scumbuddy pounce.

The idea that this is an uphill battle for you is a joke.

Maybe look at what people are saying today vs. what they did say yesterday.

Like I'm not ignorant enough as scum to blow up my position the day before lylo in order to take a 'hard' vote instead of just riding the easy day2 vote to a medium-hard lylo vs forcing a hard vote day2 and then having another hard 1v1 in lylo

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I'm just going off what your other head said:

You're treating 2490 as him saying he hasn't read anything at all, which is not the case. He's saying he didn't read evreything yet, but what he did read lead him to that conclusion.

It's not like all replacements literally read the entire game before attempting to post anything; most people just read enough to become familiar and then look at other things as necessary

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

- I was busy IRL and wasn't around literally until now, so assigning motivations or emotions to me when I clearly have not been here is just a bit gross

Well there's 2 of you and you've had since Thursday when Klick was revealed as a townie so I don't think it's unfair to say that it hasn't been a great priority for you.

I also didn't assign an emotion to you - I said you did not have this emotion - that's an absence of something that is clear to everyone here.

I can't speak of the other head but I was literally off-site for a few days so

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

You know what

Wug, Aldu, DC is this helping you guys?

If it is I'll continue to go post-by-post but if it isn't I'm not going to unconvince Pooky so I'm not sure what the point is

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Sure is interesting that both of you think aldus is the most likely partner for the other

I think I’ve nearly made my mind up about this game and am close to being ready to vote

I kinda just wanna run a couple of things by the people I think are town before I do/want to let this 1v1 run a little longer

Actualy I don't think that it's Aldu, I think it's Wug

Is there anything in particular you want me to address? If you're leaning towards voting us I'd like the oppurtunity to talk to you about it before you do so

Do you want me to continue the thing with Pooky? I can if the people who will be making the decision think i'ts helpful, but if they don't I don't really see the point

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Just one thing that bothers me: if the scumteam is Pooky/D&D, and they NK'd Chemist because they expected Pooky to be eliminated Day 2, then why did D&D hard defend Pooky on Day 2?

Right, taht doesn't make much sense, does it?

What are you leaning towards today?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

It is not!

Why are you coming to the conclusion that you think it is?

I don't think yesterday makes much sense with that scumteam, and if you want to vote us first I'd like to try to convince you to, like, not since it will lose the game.

Like I very much understand why people view us as scummy after yesterday but I want to at least try to fix it by trying to get you lot to not vote us because it will lose the game and I'd feel kinda bad for bringing that outcome on all of us without at least trying to not lose in lylo.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Pooky could maybe be scum with wug

This is the universe I think we live in

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

DC, why kill on-wagon if it's Pooky/us?

Like what's our long-term plan here exactly?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Whatever cred we presumably get for "bussing" Pooky is canceled out by our hard defense of him yesterday. For this to be a scum bus strategy we'd have to expect people to only consider the former while disregarding the latter, which is dumb and also didn't happen anyway.
If that's the strategy we wanted to go for, we could've just done it last game day.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

If anything we'd play our strategy taking thread feedback into account if we were scum, no? What on earth was the point of all that effort yesterday if it's moot anyway?
(I know, WIFOM, but this WIFOM strat would have a much smaller payoff than the alternative)

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

I can't speak for what's happened prior to before we repped in, obviously.

I agree that it's unlikely that aldu decided to hardbus all game, which is why I think that it's not him.
Out of the three slots, on play, I think that you're the most townie, so I think it's unlikely you're partneed with him.

That just leaves wug. I don't know what scum were thinking wrt the Chemist kill, I think it's a poor kill in a setup like this. My best gues is that they figured Pooky was going down anyways and they wanted Wug to capitalize on that via bussing him day2, so limiting the potential scum slots on wagon wouldn't matter as much, and they just thought he was the hardest slot to vote out.

I think the deliberately tying myself to my partner and then attempting to bodily force the wagon away from him, all while setting myself up for a situation where I'd be suspicious until endgame is a really, really silly game plan when I can think of several other ways to play the game that wouldn't have landed me in such a tricky spot.

From my pov, Pooky is confscum, so my goal is to find which of the 3 of you makes the most sense as a partner. I think that Wug makes the most sense.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

On both days, DnD!slot and pooky have been coordinated to push the execution away from pooky and onto a town slot. Yes, this leads to one of them inevitably being executed today but it then sets up an endgame of (probably) DnD, wug, aldus/me.

This is just such a bad/short-sighted way to play this as scum since deliberately putting yourself in the spotlight like this for two days of lylo seems silly to me when it could have just been avoided altogether.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

at least deeply sceptical of whether I’d taken advantage of their defense of pooky to move the execution off my partner to klick

While you were in a position where you could abuse it, you also had the option of clouding up the firing before we even replaced in. I also believe your output in discussion with my other head was a strong town indicator.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Pooky/wug

I think it's this one !

Also my other head does not know who you are, DC.

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

or should we just get pooky and find out now if the pooky/d&d solve is right

We should be voting Pooky today, but the solve is not pooky/dnd and I will be fighting it tomorrow if it comes down to that

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

VOTE: pooky

Let’s find out!

Awesome, I was right on you

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

DnD is supporting me without even reading the game as soon as he replaces in.

Why do you think they are always split up like that? My bet is Aldus told DnD in the scum PT that his job is to support Pooky - one scum on either side.

First line: factually untrue, which I addressed
Second line: To be quite honest, if I'm scum I'm running the scum strategy (sorry aldu)

Also, is Aldu/DnD your final answer?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

DC do you have any theories? this is like the one thing that I wanna clear up before I hammer Pooky

Cuz it's not the scumteam!

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

The last day was really fucking hard and I needed a bit of a break overnight lol

Good game aldu, pooky. I do think I would have voted wug in this lylo; Aldu I'm really impressed

Sorry Klick for utterly screwing up the game via voting you out

Happy that I was right on the DC townread tho

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Really good job aldu

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Well played, Aldu and Pooky!

Pooky, as I said, you're pretty damn versatile in your scum play. Was very fun playing with you!

Wug, it took me a game where I quick-voted to lose in LyLo to realize that if something feels "almost certainly correct" going to LyLo I may need to scrutinize it more.

Klick, lots of apologies. I was a dumbass. Should've made a greater effort to see where you were coming from wrt Pooky on the day we replaced in.

It was fun playing with all of you! I look forward to seeing you guys in future games.

-Dumbass