Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[Dumb and Dumber]

Anyway this theory died as soon as DonC was willing to lynch Klick on D2.

I think this whole post is revisionist history upon needing to fabricate an explanation for that post days later

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Yes, we did feel regret, but saying that should lead to us coming out "guns blazing" is wrong. If anything, if we were planning to set up a Pooky 1v1 for today... isn't it much more likely that we'd have some ammo to attack you with entering today?

I already explain in my post why you didn't come out guns blazing for me today. If you were town you would've definitely come out eager to scrap and brawl but instead it's been quite dull. You don't want to hit me too hard and make me look good tomorrow after you flip scum today.

But our whole gameplan *(per your explanation for why we wanted klick first out yesterday) is to win a 1v1 against you today

You can't simultaneously argue we went for Klick yesterday to set up a mislynch on you today to win while also arguing we we're setting ourselves up to take the fall today so that you're tomorrow's mislynch bait

That doesn't make sense. Like your narrative has shifted to basically saying we're currently trying to set you up to be 3way lylo's mislynch but that doesn't explain what we were trying to do yesterday with Klick

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

does n1 on-coalition kill make sense if both maf are in the coalition?

Not really

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I don't think you intended to actually derail the wagon - you wanted to put up a strong defense of Pooky-Town so that you'd have something to use against Klick - however you pushed a little too hard and ending up completely trainwrecking the wagon - at that point you couldn't turn back so you decided the heck with it I can always just flip this back on Pooky on D3 when Klick flips town - that'd be 2 MLs Pooky is on and he'd be a sitting duck for me to push out in LYLO.

This wasnt' your narrative at daystart though.
Your explanation for what we've been doing has shifted (and has, imo, become improbable)

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

Of course you committed to the defense of me whole-heartedly - the more strongly you defend me - the better you look on D3 when I flip town on D2 lynch - setting you up for the 1v1 with Klick perfectly. If you had put forth just a half-hearted defense of me, it would've looked like scum having info and posturing for D3 and you would've had a much arder time vs Klick on D3 1v1 LyLo.

You probably didn't expect to actually succeed in derailing the wagon on D2

Again, this doesn't actually take into account the fact that our position in the gamestate would be wrecked upon a klick!townflip, when we could have just avoided all of this by supporting your mislynch in the first place.

Like you're concocting elaborate plans to explain scum!us's positioning, but failing to explain why we don't just take the easy route. Like what you're saying is technically possible, sure. Is it actually probable though?

- Dumber

[Dumb and Dumber]

I have caught up, ask me anything

- Dumber

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Uhhhhh this could have gone sooooooo badly for scum!us, and backfired awfully. It almost did, we were initially scum-read for doing so, and were in the hot seat for a bit there. We coudl have just ... avoided all of that by saying 'oh yeah pooky is obvscum lol' and vote you.

I don't remember any instance yesterday where you could've been wagoned

instead

of me or any instance where the wagon could've been diverted onto you instead. Any discussion about your guilt was either very late in the day like just hours before deadline when it was too late to get off 3-3 tie between Klick and me OR your guilt as an associate of me - as in if Pooky flips scum, then look at DnD as a scumbuddy - something you knew wouldn't happen since you knew I was going to flip town on a lynch thus making your defense of me look amazingly good if I actually got lynched.

I don't remember any time when you specifically were in the hot seat yesterday - it felt very much to be a 1v1 betw me and Klick the entire way through.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like we could have taken the easy route so so so easily. Like I don't get why we'd go out of the way to make our position in the game more precarious when we could have just taken the easy mislynch and then had the 1v1 today.

Your defense of me on D2 did not make your position more precarious. You would've had a 1v1 today regardless of whether Klick or I had gotten lynched yesterday in our 1v1. Yesterday was trending towards a Pooky lynch followed by a 1v1 between you and Klick on D3 - something which is a bit of an even match between you and Klick if you just go along with Pooky-wagon and you look worse if you mount just a half-hearted defense of Pooky or inacto D2.

What you did instead was a full-defense of Pooky - resulting either in

A) Pooky gets evicted - you look great in 1v1 lylo vs Klick as you did full out defense.
B) Klick gets evicted - you get to 1v1 against someone who is universally suspected by the entire town - again advantage you.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

We're obviously, undoubtedly, in a worse position right now, upon the mislynch, than we would have been if we would had just ridden the mislynch to the 1b1 today. Like we (unfortunately) burned all towncred yesterday ... for what exactly? It didn't make today any easier

How are you in a worse position now ?

If you ride with Klick to ML Pooky, you're at best at parity with Klick in 1v1 since you just came in and sheeped him.

Now you're 1v1 against Pooky who every player in the game except you had expressed a willignness to lynch on D2 and has been up for lynch now TWICE at L-1 both times. Add your vote to the wagon and this should be the easiest lynch in your life if you can just get one of the townies who wanted to lynch Pooky on D2 to join you again.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Again, this is failing to take into account the consequences/reevaluations/gamestate post klick!townflip. Our credit is shot. You're describing this to me significantly easier than it actually is, and the scum motivation you're attributing to us evaporates in that context

Again town-cred is relative - regardless of any town-cred you lose with the Klick-townflip - my credibility is still worse than yours.

It's not the absolute credibility of your position that matters in the 1v1 - it's your

relative

credibility compared to the other guy.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like this is a awful uphill battle that could have been avoided by taking the easy mislynch yesterday.

This is farcically incorrect on its face, how is it an uphill battle for you? Aldus/Wug both voted for me in D2 - do you think Klick flipping town will make them change their mind on my guilt? Regardless of which one is your scumbuddy - you only need to convince the other person to vote me and you have a packaged win right there - you don't even have to push hard - you just have to make the townie not change his mind. Also DC has voted for me on both D1 and D2 - so you just have to get him to vote me once and have your scumbuddy pounce.

The idea that this is an uphill battle for you is a joke.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like, if scum!us went town!pooky first: easy mislynch yesterday on pooky, one hard-ish mislynch today on klick
vs: if scum!us went town!klick first: redivert everyone off of the easy mislynch, burn all our cred upon the townflip, and look like idiots today when we're forced to go back to the position we hsould have taken yesterday. Just, like, why?

because 1v1 Klick is much harder for you today than 1v1 Pooky - Pooky is someone suspected by 5/7 players on D2 and you just need 1 vote from 1 of them to win the game today.

The ideal conclusion to yesterday is of course if Pooky is lynched and flips town and then you get to 1v1 Klick with the full-Pooky defense card in your arsenal that you can use to stomp Klick with in the 1v1 Lylo D3.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

You're acting like we read nothing and had no context for the game, and just barged in here with a preconceived narrative that we were going to push regardless, which isn't true.

We both skimmed bits and parts of teh game upon repping in, and my other head actually read through large portions of day1. We had *some* of the context, albeit all of it, and what we had seen from that point seemed to point to scum!klick

I'm just going off what your other head said:

Of course, that is if I find a solid lead - there's a lot in D1 I haven't read, so maybe I will there.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

- I was busy IRL and wasn't around literally until now, so assigning motivations or emotions to me when I clearly have not been here is just a bit gross

Well there's 2 of you and you've had since Thursday when Klick was revealed as a townie so I don't think it's unfair to say that it hasn't been a great priority for you.

I also didn't assign an emotion to you - I said you did not have this emotion - that's an absence of something that is clear to everyone here.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

- this doesn't match the narrative you're pushing in the top of this post - if our evil!plan is to come in and push you today after forcing through the mislynch on town!klick, we should have been better prepared, no? We had all of day2 and the night to plan this out. Our whole plan for the game was contingent on this given our actions yesterday. And despite that, we just - don't act upon it today? How does that make sense as a scum action here given teh narrative you're pushing today?

I explained why you didn't come out swinging in my post - you didn't want the fight to get too real because it creates separation between us - if I win this 1v1 with you, you want me to look like possibly your scumbuddy so I'm a viable lynch-candidate on D4. If the battle between us gets to fierce and I end up looking like lock-town after you flip scum, then we have 2 universally townread players in Pooky/DC and you can only kill one of us leaving an endgame of Pooky or DC town vs Wug - Aldus and you're worried that Aldus-scum doesn't win that 1v1 vs Wug.

Also if the fight doesn't get fleshed out too hard - you can just pounce if one townie makes a wrong vote - less information is better for the scum - you want a townie to make a mistake, a slip - one wrong vote and your scumbuddy pounces and it's game over for us.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

But our whole gameplan *(per your explanation for why we wanted klick first out yesterday) is to win a 1v1 against you today

You can't simultaneously argue we went for Klick yesterday to set up a mislynch on you today to win while also arguing we we're setting ourselves up to take the fall today so that you're tomorrow's mislynch bait

That doesn't make sense. Like your narrative has shifted to basically saying we're currently trying to set you up to be 3way lylo's mislynch but that doesn't explain what we were trying to do yesterday with Klick

It's a fallback option for you if you lose the 1v1 with me - though now that I've called attention to it I expect you and your other head will step up big time in the posting and make this a real fight to the death.

You don't want to get lynched today obviously - you'd much rather have a townie make the wrong move and vote me today but even if it doesn't work out that way it's a fairly safe way to get a Pooky mislynch on D4 if people think our fight is fake.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

This wasnt' your narrative at daystart though.
Your explanation for what we've been doing has shifted (and has, imo, become improbable)

You did not believe you had the ability to derail the wagon because it had 2 votes on it and 3 people signalling intent to vote - 5 votes out of 4 needed for a lynch.

You put up a spirited defense of Pooky that you were planning to use on Klick in D3 Lylo after a Pooky Town-flip.

That is the best case scenario for you -

The town lynches Pooky-Town

despite

your full hearted defense - the person most responsible? Why your 1v1 opponent tomorrow, Klick.

This 1v1 is made much easier for you

because

of your full-on defense of Pooky - who Klick had just MLed on D2. One wrong townie vote and Klick is done - game set match.

If you just do a token defense or half-hearted defense - Klick can make the argument that you had pre-knowledge of Pooky-town and you were just posturing in order to look better on D3 - you NEED to make it a full on defense to look convince on D3 Lylo.

This was your original plan but Pooky somehow surviving D2 and ending up your 1v1 Partner suits you just fine as well since Pooky is very suspected by the entire town at that point and can be set up as a ML - you only need 1 townie vote on Pooky D3 Lylo to win the game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Again, this doesn't actually take into account the fact that our position in the gamestate would be wrecked upon a klick!townflip, when we could have just avoided all of this by supporting your mislynch in the first place.

Like you're concocting elaborate plans to explain scum!us's positioning, but failing to explain why we don't just take the easy route. Like what you're saying is technically possible, sure. Is it actually probable though?

Again, Klick-townflip hits me and you equally hard - it's a relative wash. However you still get to 1v1 against somebody who the entire town suspected on D2.

This isn't an elaborate plan - it's a straightforward play for you. Defend the person who looks like he's about to get railed on out of town to set yourself up for looking better in the LYLO tomorrow regardless of what happens. Either that person you defended gets lynched and you look great or that person you defended survives and is a sitting duck for you tomorrow since most people already suspect his slot.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I think we were framed with that kill
(And I'd also have to say that as either alignment, so eh take that with a grain of salt)

I wish I had a nightkill to get rid of the person who wants me evicted, I could just shoot aldus and claim I'm being framed.

[DonCorleone]

Sure is interesting that both of you think aldus is the most likely partner for the other

[DonCorleone]

Also that you’re both TRing me

[DonCorleone]

I think I’ve nearly made my mind up about this game and am close to being ready to vote

I kinda just wanna run a couple of things by the people I think are town before I do/want to let this 1v1 run a little longer

[Wug]

does n1 on-coalition kill make sense if both maf are in the coalition?

It's a pretty bold play, but if they expected Pooky to get eliminated Day 2 then it sort of makes sense to sell the idea of 1 off, 1 on.

this makes sense
i expected that too

do you think it's what happened?

i do
don is pretty town
you towntold d1

[Alduskkel]

[Alduskkel]

Just one thing that bothers me: if the scumteam is Pooky/D&D, and they NK'd Chemist because they expected Pooky to be eliminated Day 2, then why did D&D hard defend Pooky on Day 2?