Post
Post #2462 (isolation #400) » Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:14 am
Postby DonCorleone »
I think I’d like each of you to scumcase the other before anything else. You’ve also both suggested that I’m town, in which case — who do you think is the partner of the other and why?
- Pooky was getting the hell out of himself bussed D1
- When given the opportunity to hammer Koba, Aldus prefers to
bus
- Pooky wasn't on that wagon either
- Aldus shows up at eod just to make it clear how badly he wants to bus
- Pooky/Aldus go into night phase: "who do we NK? Let's go for Chemist. That way when Pooky dies tomorrow to Aldus bus, they have bad PoE for off-wagon. They will execute Wug, and then in LyLo they will execute... hopefully not Aldus"
Conclusion: If this is the team, we GG go next, they are masters of distancing
Spoiler: Assume Pooky/DC
- DC's obvtownness is all an elaborate ruse
- DC's trying to fight onto wagon before coalition failure was all an elaborate ruse
- DC pushes Koba hard and then unvotes after replacement cause nvm, he gotta busssss
- DC busses Pooky to L-1, keeps him there for a while
- Pooky decides he wants to live, DC acquiesces and manages to divert onto Clover
- "Who do we kill tonight? Let's go Chemist so they have bad PoE on DC after DC busses Pooky."
- Honestly they could've just NK'd Klick and tried to save Pooky one more day if this is the team — DC was not committed to bussing, unlike Aldus from D1
- DC busses Pooky
- D&D apparates, wants to execute Klick
- DC capitalizes
Conclusion: DC is obvtown. And if he's scum, he's a bloody legend if this is the team. The absolute balls on the man to unvote Koba and pivot to his teammate when he was in the perfect situation to continue tunneling.
Spoiler: Assume Pooky/Wug
- Coordinated counterwagon on Clover
- Pooky is successfully saved
- So far so good
- The team goes into night phase: "Who do we kill tonight? If Pooky dies tomorrow, we want the kill to be on someone on-wagon to limit their PoE on Wug. But if Pooky dies, it's very likely Wug gets executed next, so we really gotta keep Pooky alive. To do this we will kill Chemist, because he was never gonna be the execute tomorrow(?) and it will help us not execute Pooky(???), even though it perfectly telegraphs our expectation that he will in fact die(?????) It doesn't frame anyone and we won't use it to push a narrative"
- Wug dilly-dallies
- Starts to look like Pooky might not be the execute
- Wug can pivot to Klick but thinks it would look bad on herself and Pooky
- Wug could continue dilly-dallying
- No! She will wifom bus Pooky to put him back in the lead
Conclusion: This is a legendary "let's go for random NK to confuse them" strat if it's the case. Wug is on point with the WIFOM. I would put very very few eggs in this basket.
Spoiler: Assume Pooky/Deimos
- Uh...
- I guess we'd be in pretty good shape here?
- I did open by voting him D2
- And I left the door wide open for DC to hammer him yesterday.
- I could've waited out the timer and no exec'd.
- I'm town.
Spoiler: Assume Pooky/Klick
- Instead of having Pooky hammer Koba, Klick decides to bus Pooky into the ground. On D1. Ballsy.
- Chemist NK to further frame Pooky and protect Klick via WIFOM.
- Now they be bussing each other again. Not even an attempt to get D&D out today. Again, ballsy.
Conclusion: If this is the case, Klick is flipping red here anyway so we can just execute her. You can give some brief thought to this possibility in a LyLo if Pooky is still alive, but really both Aldus and Wug have much better equity. I'm ok losing to this scumteam.
Spoiler: All of the above leaves Pooky/D&D
I'd still argue that the combination of NK'ing Chemist, and D&D being the scumbuddy, implies a bussing strategy today since it locks in scum!Pooky narrative and sets up D&D being townread along with the apparent NK PoE manipulation WIFOM.
Yet that isn't the play D&D has gone for. In fact, the pair would be in really bad shape right now, since we have a guaranteed D3 scum exec and then the other is on the chopping block.
Reassess this team after Klick flip. It's probably the right solve if she flips green, but it's still a weird one. There might be an oddball D&D/DC or smth in there.
This would be one of the reasons why if scum!Pooky = True then scum!D&D = True. That's also a team where I see them going into night phase and deciding to NK Chemist. Even if their ensuing play today wasn't quite what I expected.
The only fear I have of not having the right solve if town!Klick = True is some oddball D&D/Aldus, D&D/Wug, or D&D/DC. I think we have to dismiss the third team there and just accept that DC is town at this point. I'm willing to lose to scum!him after this performance, anyway. Aldus looked like he was setting up to push D&D after Pooky based on the NKA but I'm not confident that's good reason to dismiss this team. The Wug team also has a point against it in the D1 ongoing game shenanigans but in theory that could still be scum theatre.
So I think probably eliminate D&D tomorrow if this flips green and then double and triple check his associations with the other players before going for Pooky. Eliminating D&D first should be fine if we're all agreed that Pooky's only remaining compatible teammate is D&D. Anyway y'all gotta look critically at how I dismissed the associations in my earlier post with the spoilers and update it to see if anything changes or you have new ideas for Pooky teammates cause if so tomorrow is gonna be pretty hard.
Post
Post #2464 (isolation #402) » Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:53 am
Postby DonCorleone »
In post 2448, Klick wrote:Frankly, Wug just doesn't look like scum based on his play today.
In post 2438, Klick wrote:I've just read through a decent portion of the Sleeper/Tux ISO and this team looks more than viable
I'll keep reading
In post 2413, Klick wrote:Hadn't noticed deadline was that close. Equally it's 2am here. I'll likely be around some before you wake up tomorrow then?
The DnD thing is weird, because the scumread crept up when they decided I was scum over Pooky; Pooky himself made some good points about how it looked like DnD were setting up for being 'right' if Pooky was executed and flipped town. I really struggled to see how they could read D1 and both come to the opposite conclusion that the rest of the thread came to. But then the rest of the thread decided they were gonna change their mind lol so I suppose at least two town have to be wrong there.
I dunno, I definitely have an amount of confirmation bias in finding both Pooky and DnD scummy it seems. I do feel like Pooky is the most likely person to flip scum by play. They were peddling DnD-scum as a theory until it looked like I could be executed, and then they jumped onto me when they could find an excuse to. It's the same 'play dead until they get someone else' shtick he played yesterday.
SS > Aldus > Wug > Pooky is my current preferred order
In post 1502, Clover Ebi wrote:I feel ok with Wug/Al/Pooky I would need to be sold on Koba slot being scummy here. Sorry for the afk holidays and all that!
I don’t want you to go through and look for the partner, I want you to engage directly with pooky’s content and explain why it’s scummy and why you think you read it completely wrongly yesterday.
Last edited by Datisi on Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
Post
Post #2473 (isolation #408) » Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:04 am
Postby DonCorleone »
I suppose this is what I get for posting on a hangover and not observing my rule of “always sign out once you finish posting what you came to say” on alts
Post
Post #2480 (isolation #412) » Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:43 am
Postby DonCorleone »
Well considering that if it is pooky you are probably the most mislynchable slot in the game and that your stances (especially D1) are more or less indistinguishable from sleeper’s stances, do you think you could maybe give us a little more than that
Post
Post #2571 (isolation #425) » Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:22 am
Postby DonCorleone »
Let’s look at the flow here. In the first VC koba (town) goes up to a 4 person wagon very quickly. I doubt that both scum risk exposure by getting in together, it just doesn’t seem that likely to me and less so right next to each other. But I do think it’s very likely that *a* scum got on, meaning scum in (wug, sleeper).
Pooky then becomes a wagon that is confirmed to be almost entirely town, while the counterwagon on clover is entirely non-confirmed slots. I doubt that aldus is bussing his buddy that hard at that point on D1 and I don’t see why the scumteam of (sleeper, wug) decides to go all in on pushing town!clover when everyone wants town!pooky dead. I think this strongly spews pooky as scum. Chemist is voting one of our unconfirmed slots the whole time and is the N1 kill.
For D2 if it’s pooky/aldus then aldus has been hardbussing non-stop ever since the coalition failed. If it’s wug!scum she bussed only on D2 knowing that after pooky went down she was almost certainly next as she was the most widely discussed partner. Seems like an odd decision to me for scum to make.
On both days, DnD!slot and pooky have been coordinated to push the execution away from pooky and onto a town slot. Yes, this leads to one of them inevitably being executed today but it then sets up an endgame of (probably) DnD, wug, aldus/me. I actually find it really weird that DnD enters today with a strong townread on me when I think they should have been at least deeply sceptical of whether I’d taken advantage of their defense of pooky to move the execution off my partner to klick, but instead they tried to go down the argument that scum had to be bussing pooky yesterday — why? Because if not then that’s also incredibly incriminating for them today
Post
Post #2572 (isolation #426) » Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:24 am
Postby DonCorleone »
In post 2569, Dumb and Dumber wrote:If that's the strategy we wanted to go for, we could've just done it last game day.
No, you wouldn’t, because it would ask huge questions about your continued presence in 3p lylo had we already had one scumflip on wagon and were we then operating under the assumption the other scum was off
Post
Post #2588 (isolation #434) » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:44 am
Postby DonCorleone »
After the clusterfuck of D1 this ended up being a really good game, so thanks everyone
Whoever scum is, I think you’ve played a very strong game
I’ve thought about it and I think that given the resistance that pooky faced both D1 and D2 and that in both cases the push was coming from town slots, on a probabilistic basis its likely that this flips scum more often than not and not that scum were playing a super WIFOM game of trying to fight a town!pooky wagon against other town slots specifically to wifom 5p lylo
If that is what they’ve done, well done, congrats on the win, no bad blood from me although I’ll be frustrated I missed it!
Seeing as apparently I’m very broadly townread I figure I’ll die tonight (I think this is why pooky and DnD both said they were TRing me so hard btw — makes it normal that I would die vs DnD dying) — my feeling is that if it’s not (DnD, aldus) it’s probably (pooky, DnD) and not (pooky, wug) but aldus you should check that
Post
Post #2605 (isolation #439) » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:17 am
Postby DonCorleone »
Because generally one wagon getting pushed by town that is strongly resisted means its scum doing the resisting
And I think it’s less likely that scum were consistently resisting one town wagon vs another than that scum were resisting because the alternative wagon was on scum
In post 2605, DonCorleone wrote:Because generally one wagon getting pushed by town that is strongly resisted means its scum doing the resisting
And I think it’s less likely that scum were consistently resisting one town wagon vs another than that scum were resisting because the alternative wagon was on scum
but you were the one doing the resisting!!
If it was me doing the resisting how come I was the fourth vote on clover and the third vote on klick?
Like yes I was probably the most vocally against you on D1/with wug and forced it, but I definitely wasn’t the one resisting on D2
In post 2549, Alduskkel wrote:Just one thing that bothers me: if the scumteam is Pooky/D&D, and they NK'd Chemist because they expected Pooky to be eliminated Day 2, then why did D&D hard defend Pooky on Day 2?
DC do you have any theories? this is like the one thing that I wanna clear up before I hammer Pooky
Yeah I’m mulling this over
I think that the answer is something like, let’s say DnD just gets on the bus train. Okay cool, pooky flips scum D2, klick probably does N2? And then we elim wug
Who realistically goes next there? I kind of think it’s DnD, probably he 1v1s me in 3p arguing that I defended pooky on D1. But like, idk man, that seems like a fairly bad lylo
I sort of think the plan was “oh, scum would never put themselves in a situation where they’re guaranteed to lose a member!” and to then ride that out in the lylo
Post
Post #2627 (isolation #447) » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:07 pm
Postby DonCorleone »
I think it would be very, very odd for DnD!town to enter today going “hmm, yes, DC is pretty much locktown to me also, the person who switched off what I know KNOW to be scum when I had the chance, and who was pretty entirely responsible for their not dying on D1”
Does that not feel like a really weird thought process for town to have here? And I think them picking you as a partner for pooky vs wug was weird too, if they were saying I was town?
Aldus and Wug, one is the last townie the other is DND scumpartner.
I know you both wanted me dead yesterday _ pls give me a chance today > if you don’t we lose as town right away.
I am here to answer any questions you might have.
This is so fuckin weird man
Like why would you enter day “pretty sure I’m town” and then not even be sceptical of that when the person you should /know to be scum/ says the same thing?
Post
Post #2629 (isolation #449) » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:11 pm
Postby DonCorleone »
In post 2466, Dumb and Dumber wrote:I'll discuss with Dumber and see if we can evaluate for the partner [of which there's only two options: Wug and Aldu] with another re-read
This really feels like a pocket, much more than I feel like wug has been trying to do that
And tbh if wug is scum I just don’t feel it at this point
Post
Post #2647 (isolation #452) » Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:55 pm
Postby DonCorleone »
I figured out why I went wrong on aldus, incidentally: I thought scum had to have been on the koba!wagon D1 for opportunism reasons, I didn’t think my push was good enough for it to be all town who followed me on. I also thought the posts he made like twice about being frustrated he had no clout were super towny, but I guess I was just totally wrong on those. I also confbiased on DnD scum but aldus hammered pooky before I could make the post where I was going “so DnD would do this as town because X, Y, Z, but he’d do it as scum because... hmm, wait, I had something for this”. Guess this is yet another instructive lesson in “if scum have played well, hammer the towniest looking person in 3p lylo”
Post
Post #2650 (isolation #453) » Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:57 pm
Postby DonCorleone »
Also purely off play I didn’t think aldus would hardbus his buddy D1 when he looked likely to flip and then have to explain in 3p lylo why he wasn’t dead from a NK.
Post
Post #2670 (isolation #458) » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:15 am
Postby DonCorleone »
You don’t get to claim good reads when your scumteam read was explicitly wrong and although you mentioned that aldus could be a partner for pooky, by the time N3 rolled around you were predicting that the scum would be NK’d
Post
Post #2671 (isolation #459) » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:17 am
Postby DonCorleone »
It doesn’t matter if you at one point had a correct solve but then proceeded to forget all about it and push other things including hard TRing the final scum going into 3p elo
Just accept that your reads were as bad as everyone else’s on town as that’s the first step to improving
