Micro 986 - The Coalition: PIFoMP [game over!]

[Farren]

Twelve pages in less than twelve hours. This is going to be a great game, I think.

[Farren]

As of page 4:

Mystic Bear: liking the energy level so far. Why the early coalition? (13) Not "why did you pick the particular names you picked" but "why did you propose a full coalition that early at all?"
bugspray: why were you trying to shut Mystic Bear down? (86)
Scooby Dooby Doo: why did you add bugspray and tris to your coalition? (91)

[Farren]

Norwegian: how serious did you think your wagon was when you made post 97 in terms of its reasoning?

[Farren]

Scooby: why mimicking Mystic Bear in 101?
Norwegian: I think Mystic Bear's description of your reaction to pressure in 124 is accurate - at least in terms of laying down and dying. Dunno about the "fake af and performative", though - can you show me a Town game where you acted similarly?

[Farren]

VANDERSCAMP.

My goal for this game: figure out how to read you correctly.

[Farren]

Ok gun to head are we town or not.

Link me the game.

Did you not have an opinion about whether or not Mystic Bear is Town at this point?

[Farren]

HEAL: Farren
HEAL: Mystic Bear

[Farren]

Liking Vanders so far.

[Farren]

HEAL: Vanderscamp

[Farren]

At which point, the page count will probably have doubled.

[Farren]

I took a quick look at that game you linked, Norwegian. Doesn't count with an alt if you're adopting a different persona. Got anything else?

[Farren]

Normally I'd keep pressing the point, but given the game, that's probably not the best use of time right now.

tris: are you still around?

[Farren]

Cool. How are things going?

[Farren]

That explains the "sort of."

You mentioned feeling full of positive emotion earlier. Doesn't seem like it now. Has something changed?

[Farren]

what's changed is i'm not fully engaged atm

I'll try again later, then.

[Farren]

This is exactly the response i expected.
They can't allow an change in the townblock since their buddy Scooby is on it.

If the team is Bear/Scooby, why would it matter if Scooby is in the townblock or not, as long as Bear is in it?

[Farren]

You should have gone with Datisi instead.

[Farren]

Scooby: could you please answer my previous questions?

Also, do you think Mystic Bear vs NorwegianBoy is TvT? If so, why?

[Farren]

dostin spamming too many useless questions.playstyle? WE'LL SEE

I don't think that is very fair to say but of course if Norwegianboy picks and chooses which ones to answer (I will say that some of them are rhetorical) and just dismisses the rest as "fake" then they are not doing as much as they could. It is probably useful though to look at what people choose to answer and what they choose to ignore.

Look at this awful reply.
"Yeah i’m pretty scummy huys, but look at Norwegianboy!!"

Where in there does he say or imply that he's acting scummy?

[Farren]

how does anyone tr mystic bear

They're putting themselves out there. Center of attention. Setting themselves up for a fall if they're wrong - which, if they're scum, they'd have to be wrong to stay alive.

[Farren]

farren, if you're here, i can talk to you now.

1:55 am my time? Nope.

[Farren]

i don't get why you're asking this question. why is this a thing that needs asking about? obviously you don't need to answer before scooby responds to you

Remind me after Scooby answers, if I don't come back to this.

[Farren]

Liking Vanders so far.

Mission accomplished

My mission, or yours?

[Farren]

I think you're either tunneling or evil at this point if you're going to make these kinds of points
You can have reads without pronouns obv

From what I've read in other games, this is NAI.

[Farren]

Chilling
Hoping you were more obviously good farren so you could be in my town circle

Possible pipe dream

On D1? Definite pipe dream.

[Farren]

vander more concerned abt ppl bringing up pronouns than solving the game they're not gonna be much help this game clearly.

Speaking as someone who's played a lot of games with Vanders - he's good at this game.

[Farren]

Note to self - meta-dive bugspray.

[Farren]

wait no, dostin is in there too

HEAL: dostin

[Farren]

Ambiguous.

PEdit> That was part of it, yes.
You're null to me, and that response didn't move the needle in either direction.

[Farren]

(that was a response to Tris, not to Norwegian.)

PEdit> Wanted to see your reaction, as part of it.

[Farren]

(that was a response to Tris, not to Norwegian.)

PEdit> Wanted to see your reaction, as part of it.

oh ok, i understand now. to be clear. do you actually townread dostin?

Lightly, but yes.

[Farren]

Norwegian: please use bugspray's pronouns. Thank you.

[Farren]

tris: where are you at on dostin right now? Not townreading, but null, scum, or somewhere in between?

PEdit> funny timing.

[Farren]

Reasonable.

(PEdit> to tris, again.)

[Farren]

dostin: I think tris's statement about you focusing on Norwegian is accurate. Do you agree? If so, why are you doing it?

[Farren]

Could you repost your questions? I don't want to go back and answer them if they've started to grow mold and rot

Scooby Dooby Doo: why did you add bugspray and tris to your coalition? (91)

Scooby: why mimicking Mystic Bear in 101?

[Farren]

I keep getting distracted by the Norwegian / Mystic show.

Let's say Norwegian's scum. Norwegian's motive as scum in offering to support the coalition that doesn't include him in exchange for eliminating Dostin later is ... what?

Possibilities:
WIFOM. WIFOM is only meaningful to scum if there's scum in the coalition, or if it helps get scum into the coalition. The likelihood of Norwegian getting into any coalition at this point is slim to none, with odds on none. WIFOM would have to be aimed at getting Norwegian's partner into the coalition.

Dostin / Norwegian seems rather laughable as a team, but that's the only person I can think of that would make a sense from a WIFOM perspective. Doesn't seem likely.

Trying to get himself in somehow? Don't see how this would have any chance of working.

Trolling? Not having any idea what would work so trying to throw anything at the wall to see if it would stick? That's all I can think of.

[Farren]

Or sheer bloody stubborn-mindedness. That's another possibility.

[Farren]

i don't like how dostin focuses almost entirely on norwegian to the point that the only indication of any other read is the healing.

I think Norwegianboy is standing out very much as mafia and nobody else really is. I don't really have explanations for why I think Mystic Bear and Vanderscamp are town but their posts seem very genuine like they are all ready to solve the game and like I said before make it clear to everyone else what they are doing and thinking, which is what townies should be doing in the first stage of the game naturally with a town mindset and an understanding of how the setup works.

What about everyone else?

[Farren]

Scooby: here are your answers.

Spoiler: lots of quote tags

Which I brutally and mercilessly IGNORED and asked to be repeated

See post 572.

To answer this:

This post is sus because why are you even focusing on this. And what about the possibility of NEE being scum with a partner already in the coalition? That's an obvious one you missed out.

This is the kind of post which is fun to theorise about and fabricate, but is actually pretty unhelpful as town, in place of actual reads on the playerlist.

Both of these are already answered.

I keep getting distracted by the Norwegian / Mystic show.

The logical follow-up: why do I keep getting distracted? Because I'm easily distracted by shiny objects. Why? I don't know; I wish I did know so I could make it stop.

WIFOM is only meaningful to scum if there's scum in the coalition

I did not ignore it; it's a possible answer. Logical follow-up: why not follow-up on that? Because delving further into hypothetical WIFOM would be a waste of time.

[Farren]

I don't understand the logic of people here, and it's kinda ridiculous that i have to act like the devils advocate, but isn't it quite weird that y'all "place your trust" in Mystic Bear for their gambit, but vote him for the execution if the coalition fails? I think we'd be better off preparing for the worst case scenarion by already keeping our vote on whoever of the 5 in the coalition we have the least trust in, so if the coalition fails they are eliminated. Best case scenario, scum in the pool is removed early. Worst case scenario, we get rid of someone that is likely to be eliminated anyway in the event of the coalition failing.

Therefore i propose we all agree on one of Tris/Vanderscamp/Farren/Scooby Dooby Doo to eliminate if the plan goes wrong.

Yes, it was a horrible idea. Which is why it was a good idea to propose - to see who went along with it, especially if that someone was in the Coalition. If the Coalition failed, that narrows the suspect pool rather nicely.

Or would have. Did you see a scum motivation in Bear's plan? If so, what was it? If not, why play devil's advocate?

And please watch the pronouns. Unless you think they're proposing that only Pooky be executed for a failed coalition.

[Farren]

what if you take 246 into account?

That post doesn't help me think STAYC is town, I'm just seeing a read with pretty much zero justification behind it.

It read to me like a townread on Bear - with justification - but implied a scumread on Norwegian, given the bit about giving him a "second chance." Which doesn't mesh with the bit about townreading both.

Contradiction, but also confusion - which can explain contradiction.

[Farren]

HEAL: tris

The only thing I see that's set off any scumpings with her slot was the omg! at the beginning. A single uncharacteristic moment does not a scum make, unless it's something that *only* a scum would do. That wasn't.

[Farren]

That leaves bugspray, Scooby, Norwegian, and STAYC outside.

bugspray - I did read through some of their meta. I didn't see any major difference in their activity levels between scum and Town. I did see some differences in general play, but right now I can't put bugspray's play into either category. Not going to go into details yet - if they start posting and start looking like they fall into one bucket, I'll go further into detail. Complaints about post volume are NAI - they do that as both Town and scum. All I've got here is that bugspray has been doing enough to stay in the game but not much else - which can be scummy in general. But it's probably NAI.

Furthermore, trying to push for activity doesn't look like it would be very helpful - the more activity there is, the less likely I think bugspray is to participate, which makes them even tougher to figure out.

Scooby - still waiting for the original answers, as well as an explanation on how he managed to miss 572 while criticizing 573. Evasiveness and stubbornness together are a bad combination - usually a scum combination. Selective reading is also a scum tactic.

Norwegian - don't think I need to reiterate the case here. Counterpoint - he's also got progression. And lots of activity. Might have to add him to the meta-list. Hoping we can just win with the coalition, though - that last meta-dive reminded me that for every helpful dive there's at least one that isn't. And if I had to take someone out of this group, I'd probably take him out. I can see Town-reasons in some of the screwy stuff as well as scum-reasons.

STAYC - The willingness to vote Mystic Bear. The bit about asking if mafia have daychat - in direct response to Bear asking people not in the coalition to townspew. They're also doing the same thing as Norwegian with the coalition - approving a coalition that they're not a part of. At least in his case, I can see a reason why Town-Norwegian would do it. That reason doesn't apply to STAYC, though.

[Farren]

Greetings, JacksonVirgo.

I will be very interested to hear your thoughts on the game, once you've had a chance to catch up.

[Farren]

Doesn't matter how bad your read is on someone. They're still a human being.

[Farren]

Meh. If that's the price of civility, so be it.

[Farren]

Looking at JacksonVirgo. Comparing to Scooby.

They look like they're approaching things from a completely different perspective than Scooby did. Total shift in reads, attitude, everything. Like, you'd expect an attitude change from a different person in the seat, but they look like they're genuinely reading through and coming to conclusions rather than continuing to push Scooby's agenda. That's a good sign.

JacksonVirgo: you mentioned tris's sheeping as a reason to scumread her, and she's clearly your worst read. Why her over STAYC, given that STAYC's been more blatant about sheeping?

[Farren]

OH NO. the Scooby questions will never be answered!

I really don't want to have to go hunt down episodes of Scooby Doo. Does anyone know if repeating and mimicking people is something that (the TV character) Scooby does? If so, I can at least put *that* to rest.

[Farren]

Wasn't sure if it was a shitpost or not. That's why I was asking about it. If he'd started mimicking me, or started talking about Shaggy or something like that, then that's what I would have assumed.

[Farren]

@Farren

What is your scumgame like?

Argumentative, to sum it up in one word. Last time I was scum, I remember getting into an argument with someone I thought I could get miseliminated. It went poorly. Sometimes that argumentativeness has turned into busing; sometimes not.

Sometimes fake claims, sometimes VT claims. Fancy games are more likely to lend themselves to fake claims.

If I ever claim a protective role without a detailed list of who I've protected and why, murder me on sight.

Vanderscamp could probably give you some insight as well.

[Farren]

Do you think you've been obnoxiously questioning in this game? Or very active?

No, I haven't. I think part of that was due to the holiday - took away some of the time I'd use.

Part of it is that there isn't much to work with here.

[Farren]

So what? I can't change my mind?
Alsı I voted with them because they wanted to be a town leader. 1-2 reads doesnt really matter since we have to coalition

Something odd about the tone here. Like, a tonal shift mid-post.

[Farren]

This triggers me.

Besides you and Mystic Bear.

I townread Mystic Bear. There's nothing to be gained by questioning them right now.
In your case, it's a different story. Frankly, I'm hoping to win via coalition and make it completely unnecessary.

[Farren]

@tris / Norwegian: dostin's definitely dropped lately.

Could be tunneled, but even in a tunnel, if you're just tunneling one person you should still be looking for a second. dostin hasn't been doing that, even after I poked at him a bit. It's not so much his response to tris's concerns as it is his follow-up - he hasn't really had any.

Now that I think of it, part of why I was townreading him was because I had Norwegian at the bottom of the scumbucket and Norwegian was pushing him.

Yeah, he's out.

HURT: dostin

[Farren]

I want to see more from JacksonVirgo in general before making a decision - but I'm thinking one of them/Norwegian for the final slot.

People with strong opinions are invited to chime in now.

[Farren]

Norwegian: can you explain your transition from this:

If i weren't being hated and forced out of the block by Mystic Bear i would have tossed Farren and Dostin into the non-townblock and healed me/Bugspray/Tris/Vanderscamp/Mystic Bear
That'd be an winning block for sure.

But no, gotta keep MB's ego up. He's got the game winning solve after all.

to the GIF battle?

[Farren]

Generally tone is what separates the two, tris’s tone seems way too pockety for my liking.

Can you give me some examples? I'm not seeing it.

[Farren]

Also, could you talk more about your townlean on dostin?

[Farren]

Thank you, JacksonVirgo.

With tris: boils down to the one earlier moment that I'd considered but written off as a one-shot peculiarity, and the idea that she later explained. I don't agree with the read, but I understand it; you just replaced in, so you're looking at the issue with fresh eyes - and having to catch up on everything means it's easier to miss things. Going back and looking at things again is also a plus.

With dostin: yeah, sounds similar to what I was thinking earlier.

And thank you, Norwegian, for your answer.

HEAL: JacksonVirgo

[Farren]

tris: if you're looking to get a read on Norwegian, why were none of your questions aimed his way?

[Farren]

Norwegian: please refresh my memory on the deal you keep mentioning. Motives, status, anything you think is relevant.

[Farren]

The one with Mystic Bear.

[Farren]

That's what I thought. I was wondering if I'd missed an agreement somewhere; guess not.

Do you still think it's a deal worth making now?

[Farren]

No.

Why not?

[Farren]

If memory serves, dostin wasn't in the proposed coalition at the time this deal talk was going on.

If the coalition succeeds, doesn't matter, of course.

But if the coalition fails - why would Town|Norwegian push to eliminate outside a failed coalition, I wondered. Answer I came up with: let's say dostin is outside a failed coalition, is scum, and is eliminated. That automatically conftowns *everyone* outside the coalition. At the time, given how the game was going, that would include you. That would make sense as a motivation; high-risk, high-reward, but if it pays off, oh boy. That probably wins us the game.

If this is your response now, then my idea here was off-base. Or possibly your read on dostin has changed, but I think you would have mentioned that in your reasoning if that were so.

So why the deal at all?
PEdit> Okay, dostin read definitely has not changed. Scratch that as well.

[Farren]

If that's the case: what's changed between then and now, with respects to the deal?

[Farren]

Back to evasiveness again, along with dismissiveness.

Was considering swapping you out with tris in my block. Guess not.

[Farren]

I haven't evaded anything?
Where you asking something else? My progression on Mystic Bear?
I think the fault lies slightly on you as well if you ask me vague questions and then shake your head at my answer

There was some vagueness in the questions, yes. Intentionally so. I wanted to see how you reacted to them - would you request clarification? would you figure out where the questions were going and act accordingly? would you answer in detail, however you interpreted them? Any of those would have been good. Did you follow this up with progression on Mystic Bear? If so, good.

Your last answer didn't tell me anything, though - and it wasn't even accurate, as there was no deal to begin with. So that makes me wonder if you're trying to provoke me.

Thing is, I can see both Town and scum motives to doing that. Town|Norwegian: I mentioned earlier that when I'm scum, I'm argumentative. You quoted my Newbie-scum game here earlier, so you'd know I was telling the truth there. So you poke me to see if I go for your throat. Scum|Norwegian: if you can successfully poke me enough to get me to go for your throat as Town, you can try to get me miseliminated with my own words - assuming we get that far, but scum can't afford to ignore the second half of the game since they can't win without it.

I'll be curious to see if this poking trend continues as I catch up.

[Farren]

ok, i have a little unexpected available time right now.

If memory serves, dostin wasn't in the proposed coalition at the time this deal talk was going on.

but, he was.

Definitely not what I remember. I'll have to double-check that later; don't have time to go digging now.

[Farren]

hot take norwee is scum but also i have barely read the game
i will not back this up thats why its a hot take

What would you be willing to back up?

[Farren]

@farren @vander @ norwee i will trust whatever u 3 will vote on the majority to be the final trusted actually

This could take a while. Fortunately, we have plenty of time left.

[Farren]

973 looks pretty genuine.

[Farren]

This seems like overanalyzation...
You are correct in that I've been trying to provoke reactions.

There's no such thing as overanalyzation.

[Farren]

977 - also feels genuine.

[Farren]

The explanations of these two reads are contradictory.
You claim Vanderscamp is scummy because their read on me is fake, but if that's the case. Isn't that showing it more likely for me to be town? Yet that's not the conclusion you reach in an later paragraph, i'm thinking you just need to have your read on me go this way at all cost because i'm one of the main people pushing against having you in the block right now.

In a broad sense, I'd expect scum to fake a read on their partner. But yeah, the specifics don't line up very well.

Still, independent scum reads don't always gel together.

[Farren]

slot that i made a spreadsheet graph to explain hwy they should shut the fuck up is now being prodded oof

Does that mean anything in particular, or just a random comment?

[Farren]

I'd put in tris.

As of right now ... I did like dostin's latest posts, but I think I'd still give the nod to tris? Barely?

[Farren]

Ultimately I still believe that asking whether or not scum have daychat was probably genuine.
I'm really not willing to put Farren in my circle because I think everything he's said so far has been null for his playstyle. He's definitely good enough to post like this as scum and I haven't seen anything from him I think is actively towny.

Business as usual here.

[Farren]

That is spicy.
I also haven't forgotten that he's not been answering my questions. (Or more precisely, he's been gone ever since i asked those questions)

If you still have unanswered questions, please let me know.

[Farren]

HURT: farren

*raised eyebrow*

[Farren]

Skimming Vanders' ISO, mostly to check what he brought up about dostin's read.

I can see traces of what dostin mentioned - 368, 179, maybe 203 as well.

[Farren]

Vanders, if I have to go digging through your games, I am going to be annoyed. Please don't start stoking my paranoia.

[Farren]

Which right now describes your coalition, mine, and Vanders's.

I wouldn't put STAYC in mine. I distrust derp clears in general.

[Farren]

What do you mean by that?

Vanders and I frequently go after each other, usually in error. Granted, a null read is closer to the mark than a scum read is.

[Farren]

I believe I've said this before but if tris is in any failed coalition I will gun for their head on a pike.

This feels like you've got her listed as confscum, or the next closest thing. I know she's been your worst read, but did something happen to change your confidence level? If so, what?

[Farren]

Farren what do you think of Vanderscamp right now? I think we can come to an agreement between both of our coalitions if I take out STAYC and put in tris and you take out Vanderscamp and put in me. What do you think of that grouping?

Right now, as far as Vanders goes, I'm trying to suppress my paranoia. It happens so bloody frequently, and it's usually wrong.

As for your proposed coalition: I'm getting a pocketing vibe here. Or something along those lines - there's something off about trying to directly push into a coalition.

[Farren]

Not sure about this one, I don't think I say this about you every game.

Not this in particular, no. Usually you think I'm Evil.

I'm not sure how to compare it, though - if this were a BGG game, we'd be a lot farther along. Does it make more sense to go by realtime or game progression?

(that's rhetorical; I need to figure that out myself.)

[Farren]

What do you think you've done this game that makes you actively good?

Tried to come up with a scum-free coalition.

[Farren]

basically whichever of tris/dostin norwee/vanders/farren are more comfortable with we should go with.

I want to see what dostin has to say to my latest comments. After that, we'll see.

[Farren]

HURT: tris
HEAL: NorwegianBoyEE

[Farren]

Tris wasn't in your coalition. STAYC is.

[Farren]

i refuse to hammer this coalition

In that case prop one that's better

They've proposed dostin in your place. What are your thoughts on that?

[Farren]

You are paranoid about Vanderscamp but still think they are towny enough to have them in your coalition instead of 4 other people correct?

Correct. I frequently get paranoia attacks where Vanders is concerned; I've learned to mistrust them.

[Farren]

dostin: no comments on the pocketing vibe? You quoted the post, so I know you saw it.

[Farren]

a) Join my coalition, which meets your requirements (has Virgo and Bear). Virgo said they'd be willing to compromise on putting Bear into theirs. You and they make 4. bugspray said they'd be willing to hammer just for the sake of hammering - if they do and we win, awesome. If they do and we don't, we start figuring out what went wrong. If they don't, then that probably tells us something about bugspray and/or the proposed coalition.

b) Join Vanders' coalition. dostin probably won't sign on to a coalition with Vanders. I won't sign on to a coalition with STAYC. Bear probably won't sign on to a coalition with Virgo. Virgo probably won't sign on to a coalition with you. That leaves exactly five people - you/Vanders/bugspray/STAYC/Norwegian, and that's assuming I'm not forgetting about anyone else's no-way-in-hells, which I probably am.

c) Join dostin's coalition. Obviously has dostin's support; has Bear and Virgo in it so meets your criteria. Bear's and my objections are still present, but Virgo's big one isn't. Might be doable, though I'd argue against it.

d) Figure out something else. Bear's possible idea of them/me/norwegian/Vanders/(you or dostin) would qualify.

The one I'd recommend is obvious.

[Farren]

Okay, that sucked.

Looking at JacksonVirgo vs. Mystic Bear:

Bear's gone off the deep end. At least one of them has. Thing is, that's a Town sign - it'd have to be 100% fake as scum, and it doesn't feel fake at all. Bear also has some good points about Virgo's transitions there - going from being willing to put Bear on to voting Bear right after without so much as looking at anyone else, as soon as the failed coalition is announced? Looks too sudden.

I'm seeing a lot of misrep accusations; the only thing I see that even comes close to a misrep is that Bear said Virgo was TRing them, when it was pretty clear Virgo had a nullread on them. I don't think that's a substantial misrep, though? Bear's point still stands, and it's one of those things that a cleverly-plotted scum attack wouldn't have.

So Bear's Town. Vanders ... I'd be more nervous about him if he were townreading me, I think. Norwegian did have that rough start, but if he's scum he's done a great job of self-correcting. And let's not forget about Scooby's what-the-hell garbage earlier.

Yeah, I think Bear's right, at least about Virgo. I could see STAYC as a possible partner, but I think Vanders has a good point about tris too. Especially given how the argument was developing between Virgo and Bear at that point - that could have been a signal to scum that they needed to lock in the coalition *fast* before anyone who was in it could change their mind.

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

[Farren]

I've got a question or two for STAYC as well, but they're pretty much logical follow-ups to your question, Norwegian, so I'll hold until I see STAYC's answer.

[Farren]

Which one of my questions?

About agreeing with your conclusions.

[Farren]

Any comments about the timing?

[Farren]

Of your hammer of the coalition. I think you hammered something like eight minutes after Virgo put it to H-1? Double-checking ...

... yup, eight minutes.

[Farren]

Were you seriously worried that we wouldn't reach a coalition? If so, why?

[Farren]

yeah but i forgot

How do you hammer a coalition and then "forget" 1 minute after? Seems pretty convenient.

Doesn't look like she forgot one minute after; looks like she remembered one minute after. Still falls into the "odd if true" category, but not as suspicious as forgetting immediately after.

[Farren]

Spoiler: Scooby multiquotes

Mystic Bears enthusiasm probably LEGIT

bugspray's spamming annoyance little towny

tris vibes are on point

dostin spamming too many useless questions.playstyle? WE'LL SEE

Vand null

NORWEGIANBOYEE overreacting to everything, STOP if you're town

Farren null

STAYC....

ok both of you aretown

Slight townpost here

HEAL: STAYC

ASSEMBLE THE MOUNT DOOM BATTERING RAM

STAYC: this is the closest I see to pocketing from Scooby. Scooby forgot you on the initial read post, then added you in the very next post with a "slight town post" comment. And that's not much of a pocket. Was there something else that I missed?

[Farren]

i have to go

VOTE: tris
This entrance was terrible!

Worse than STAYC's? How?

VOTE: StarToAYoungCulture

[Farren]

More discussion would be nice. We're almost certainly not going to get it from STAYC in time to make a decision today, given her V/LA. tris remains a possibility.

[Farren]

Still nothing?

Intent to hammer in 12 hours.

Will rescind if we get some non-prodging content from tris.

[Farren]

After doing some research - STAYC never really followed Mystic Bear's lead that much in the first place, at least as far as the coalition was concerned.

The one time in the game where STAYC was following Bear's coalition was post 577; there, she joined the same coalition that Bear had from 556. But Bear's post doesn't look like the trigger; STAYC posted a couple of other times after Bear's coalition. She waited a couple of hours after that before joining it herself; she joined a few minutes after Norwegian did. So it looks very much like it was Norwegian's jumping on board that convinced STAYC to follow suit.

Bear dropped their coalition later; didn't establish another full coalition until 852. By that point, JacksonVirgo had replaced in; Bear took them out of their partial coalition and filled it. STAYC never joined that coalition - she never took Scooby/JacksonVirgo's slot out of the coalition once she put it in (back in 390), and by then Bear didn't want Virgo in the coalition.

[Farren]

STAYC didn't really lead the coalescing of the failed coalition either. She voted for it third (1157), and she didn't push anyone into voting for it.

I went first. Norwegian second. STAYC third, Virgo fourth, you fifth. If anyone led it, I did.

[Farren]

Norwegian: could you please go into more detail about what you were thinking at the start of the day? You went from being confident enough about your solve of {STAYC / tris} at the end of D2 to hammer STAYC without declaring intent to a confident statement the other way ("Tris doesn't kill Vanderscamp here") to walking back the confidence as soon as someone questions you about it.

[Farren]

tris: talk to me about your engagement level. If you're Town, you know this game doesn't end with your death today. I'd think that'd be enough motivation to have done some work during N2 to be more ... attached? than 1378 implies. If you're scum, then you've got the world's biggest hole to dig out of; not putting in a great deal of work to delay the inevitable would be understandable.

[Farren]

It's called impulsivity.
I thought i had an solution right in my head, but then i realized it was too rash and i wanted to hear what everyone else was thinking first.

Was that what changed things between the hammer and the start of D3, or what changed things during D3? Or both?

[Farren]

redados, what have you even done?

pretty much nothing. just checking the game every couple of days.

VOTE: tris

Why are you doing nothing?

[Farren]

Hey
I’ll probably see how people have interacted with the flipped scum in a bit

Greetings, Gamma Emerald.

[Farren]

I think if we follow their reads then we yeet Tris today. And if Tris is town then it'd be a 1v1 between me and Farren tommorow.

1) Why are you assuming that I'd survive N3 in town|Tris world?
2) Why are you assuming that you'd survive N3 in town|Tris world?

[Farren]

And since i'm too unpatient to wait for STAYC's neverending V/LA i'll take the opportunity.
If it's not STAYC then it's Tris.

if the worst case scenario where they both fail and i'm still alive, i'll re-evaluate

. But i really think it's that easy.

VOTE: STAYC

(formatting added)

Untrue, based on the above.
And doesn't address why you think I'd survive N3.

[Farren]

VOTE: Redados

E-1

.

[Farren]

tris: while I think I know what answer you'll give, I'm going to ask anyway: why the unvote?

[Farren]

Redados: why did you like my vote for you?

[Farren]

Hm. More nuance than I was expecting. Was figuring you'd just say because you thought he was Town.

Did you think it likely that someone was going to hammer Redados?

[Farren]

Caution wouldn't serve scum|tris very well, I don't think. Better fit for Town|tris. A good sign.

[Farren]

I'm assuming you scumread Redados because you voted them to E-1.
@Farren

Actually, no. This was more of a reaction test vote, aimed at ... well, just about everyone, with the possible exception of Gamma. And I'd say it's served its purpose now.

UNVOTE: Redados

[Farren]

Combination of multiple factors. A=Old read. B= Newer read.
A: Vanderscamp is good at reading Farren and they never really said they think Farren has been town.

B: Vanderscamp was the nightkill after obvtown Mystic Bear which shows someone was fearful of them.
B: If Tris/Redados/Gamma Emerald are all town then Farren is the only remaining possibility.
B: I do not read Farren as town, he could plausibly have faked all of this and he has definitely not left his scum range.

A: Vanderscamp is not good at reading me. And that spoilered post from earlier says as much, so why did you claim that he is good at it?

B1: Or possibly Vanders died due to WIFOM. Or possibly he died because he was in the coalition and the scum was trying to kill people in the coalition. Or possibly he died because scum rolled a die. Or possibly he died because scum is trying to spin a narrative. This is why NK analysis is usually a bad idea.
B2: Boils down to PoE. Not a strong argument.
B3: It's true in the sense that anything Town can do, scum can fake. I can't think of anything I'd do that I wouldn't at least consider faking (or doing) as scum - unless I'm a PR, but that doesn't apply here.

[Farren]

The way i read scum is that i typically see who has actual evil motivation. It's why i struggle to catch scum players that are so good at completely hiding their emotions such as Dunnstral.
Redados has played in a completely non-survivalistic manner and doesn't even seem to care if they are the lim= town.
Tris is the same, they play in a very non-chalant manner and just don't seem bothered by them even admitting to being in their scum meta= town
Gamma Emerald= Just feel town from their previous slot's work so far and also today's pure motivations.

Farren= Has an agenda, voted Redados to E-1 without explaining their vote. Myriad of other reasons= scum

What is this agenda, exactly?

[Farren]

I'm assuming you scumread Redados because you voted them to E-1.
@Farren

Actually, no. This was more of a reaction test vote, aimed at ... well, just about everyone, with the possible exception of Gamma. And I'd say it's served its purpose now.

UNVOTE: Redados

Purpose being?

1) With Redados: to see how he reacted to be put at E-1. I would have liked to see how this played out further, but with tris's unvote, that's no longer possible.
2) With tris: to see how she reacts to possibly unexpected support. Cautious backing down instead of pressing the advantage? Risky if scum; sensible if Town.
3) With you: to see if you jump at another speedhammer chance. If you do, that convinces me that you're scum - and given that you seem to be crafting a narrative of scum|me, I don't think you'd NK me and waste that narrative. Wasn't able to test this as tris unvoted before you showed up. But it produced evidence of Town|tris, and there's still some chance I get something more out of Redados, so I'm calling it a win.

[Farren]

B2: Boils down to PoE. Not a strong argument.

Not a strong argument why?
Do you disagree that Redados/Tris have been townie today?

Tris, no.
Redados, yes.

[Farren]

Farren are you going to explain what this "reaction test" was?

You really need to work on your patience here.

[Farren]

Btw if i was scum i don't think i'd be so stupid to speedhammer some guy i wasn't even pushing yesterday.

Hence why your doing so would have been pretty convincing evidence of your being scum.

[Farren]

if tris is town and we were to get to limlo then we would just lose. I would feel much better limming tris today.

Why do we just lose if tris is Town in ELo?

[Farren]

Why do you assume that?

[Farren]

That doesn't answer my question. Let me rephrase: why do you assume that tris gets voted off in D4, assuming the game makes it to D4 with tris still alive?

[Farren]

I was thinking there were signs of Redados assuming he was going to be alive come D4, but no, I think I was reading into what he was saying too much.

Not going to be paying much attention here today because of Christmas. Happy holidays, everyone!

[Farren]

VOTE: NorwegianBoyEE

He's been projecting an agenda on me and using false arguments, as well as shading other players. I think he knows the game's not going to end if I'm eliminated today (the 1v1 comment), and he's trying to set things up for tomorrow.

[Farren]

I think the game is pretty much solved so until we can all agree that Tris is town and Farren should get the rope today i'll be chilling.

This is an attempt at psychological manipulation. This is not a Town tactic.

[Farren]

Followed by dismissive contempt. Further psychological manipulation, to make the person you're arguing with seem less important or unworthy.

[Farren]

Packaging a lie with something more appealing to make the lie more believable.

[Farren]

And then continuing to act with contempt as a means of reinforcing it, hoping that people will just buy into it rather than actually thinking about it.

[Farren]

It would be pretty shocking, yes.

[Farren]

It would be pretty shocking, yes.

why do you think norway wouldn't think you were scum if he was town.

*if he was Town* <--- that's the sticking point. That's the point I'd find shocking.

[Farren]

You need two miseliminations to win. Yes, you probably could jumped on one of them today, but that would make tomorrow more challenging for you. But a final three with you / Redados / tris?

[Farren]

If it isn't obvious already, I am scumreading you.

Why do you think I should be trying to convince everyone that Redados is scum? And if you think that Town|Farren would do that, why is Town|Norwegian *not* doing that?

[Farren]

Pointing out scummy tactics is not AtE.

[Farren]

So when you said "should", you meant "this is the path to victory for Town|Farren," not "Town|Farren would be doing this and nothing else?"

[Farren]

I don't think this is a good look for farren

feeling much worse about farren after the last page or so.

Thus illustrating its effectiveness.

[Farren]

I would you to be much more specific than "I was testing y'all" or else that's an easy copout.

What are you talking about?

[Farren]

I mean that you're now feeling worse about me after reading that interaction, which shows that Norwegian's attempt to get people to feel worse about me worked on you.

[Farren]

Well played, everyone.

[Farren]

That was two years ago. And I haven't survived a scumgame to endgame since then, here or there (other than games where I was an aux {Traitor} that didn't count for scum parity). I think it was a combination of novelty (it was my first scum game since my hiatus ended) and not having an established meta that got me through that one.

I really need to figure out how to enjoy playing scum, instead of seeing it as a chore. That's probably just a function of playing more games, as being comfortable with the player list can help me with my posting levels, and the more games I play here, the more likely I am to be comfortable with the player list.