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Post #53 (isolation #6) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:00 am
Postby Dwlee99 »
Clidd is conftown and infinity is weird champ for suggesting that we just kill me based on probability. I don't even know if the math is right but I have to double check it.
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Post #58 (isolation #9) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:21 am
Postby Dwlee99 »
This is literally the exact same thing that happened with Cakey in C9++. This weird "wow you must be scum" for a comment like "scum misrep?" which isn't meant to be serious. Should I call it the Dwlee tell?
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Post #63 (isolation #13) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:35 am
Postby Dwlee99 »
In post 49, Infinity 324 wrote:If clidd is scum, the chance that he would be named as town is 1/2 * 6/8 = 3/8. My intuition says that the probability he's scum would go down to 3/8 ÷ (3/8 + 3), or 1/9. If someone knows stats they can correct me on that.
If dwlee is town, the probability that they'd be named as scum is 1/2 * 2/8 = 1/8. Again, my intuition says that the probability that they're town is 3/8 ÷ (3/8 + 1) = 3/11. Wow that's really low. I hate it but I think the correct play is to elim dwlee and not think about the wine too much.
VOTE: dwlee
Also this math is bad but I can't tell if it's scum math or town math.
In post 126, Dwlee99 wrote:If clidd was the real result then my result is complete noise. My alignment would have nothing to do with whether I got guilty or town.
I went through the math but like
It's very unlikely for town to get a mafia result. Even if clidd is the true result you still will more often than not get a town result.
37.5% of the time I get a guilty when it's being randed. Yes "more often than not" but you'd literally hand scum the game if they selected two townies every night phase and you yeeted on a guilty.
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Post #133 (isolation #32) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:00 am
Postby Dwlee99 »
I'm gonna disconnect from the game to hopefully let other people contribute so I can feel better about my solve. Pooky and Datisi I'm sure you'll eventually get over your spat.
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Post #138 (isolation #33) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:12 am
Postby Dwlee99 »
Okay I'm back because I was talked to. I agree scum are done because they've now enabled me to get a PoE pool of 6 people and I'm pretty sure it's solved unless you faked that townslip.
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Post #167 (isolation #39) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:23 am
Postby Dwlee99 »
I wasn't even surprised it was a hammer I knew it was a hammer when the vote came out so I couldn't have been faking anything. What part of "that was a hammer" immediately after he voted is surprise.
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Post #175 (isolation #43) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:30 am
Postby Dwlee99 »
You know why scum picks two town? Because "town or town" (the most likely outcome) is hella easy to just go "wow we learned nothing from that!) And then if you get a guilty then you can hop in thread and go "well mathematically it just makes sense that they're scum"
Pedit: homie do you think I told Pooky to hammer in our PT and then acted surprised by it?
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Post #184 (isolation #49) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:40 am
Postby Dwlee99 »
Your 50/50 thing doesn't even make sense because from my point of view you have a 50% chance of being scum. Okay guess I'll just throw you out the nearest window then
I want to talk to Pooky first. Depending on whether my read on him is right or not, the rest of my reads can change (and my vote too).
How does Pooky alignment impact arc?
Also I'm sorry for being snippy about this math conversation ftr but I'm sure you'd all be annoyed if people were acting like you've been nailed as scum because of a 3/8 chance on a scum decision while the person who orchestrated it is open wolfing.
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Post #225 (isolation #56) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:18 pm
Postby Dwlee99 »
In post 223, clidd wrote:Dwlee, how sure (%) are you on MC being scum?
Like 90%
In post 224, Infinity 324 wrote:Also can you explain why you're SRing him? Besides, like, the fact that he's voting you based on some mechanical evidence
You were doing that too so it's not just that.
The thing that MC is doing is using discussion of the mech to justify his insistence that I'm evil, and I don't think he has seriously entertained the idea of us being TvT like he should if he is town.
I also think that besides talking about me, his play is woefully lacking in any sort of solving. I don't think I'm misremembering when I say that I don't think MURDERCAT has even explained a single read other than insisting I'm scum on mech. He implicitly said that Arc is scum, but that comes across in way more of a "yes she is my scum buddy and I will bus her" way than a town!way. Why is she scum? He never even tries to solve her.
He also nitpicked me saying she was scummy for her posts only to come around on thinking she was scum (again with no reasons).
Again on him lacking reads, he hasn't given an opinion on Pooky besides saying he will probably be the days' elimination. Okay, so what does he think about that? Like he is just going to consolidate on it because it's inevitable? He should be trying to sort Pooky instead of defaulting to "he will be yeeted today" if he is town.
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Post #226 (isolation #57) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:20 pm
Postby Dwlee99 »
Also forgot to add this: to a certain degree I can also just PoE here. I'm the only one who can confirm Clidd as town, and knowing I'm also town means that anyone else has a 50% chance of being scum. I townread infinity and I think both Datisi and Pooky are town (at most one scum imo) and so that leaves two of MC/Arc/Pav if not all of them.
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Post #233 (isolation #58) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:56 pm
Postby Dwlee99 »
In post 228, clidd wrote:I agree about the singular focus that MC is giving to only one read (and neglecting the scumhunt of other slots), but I don't think it's enough for "90%" of sure that he's scum. I also disagree on the possibility of TvT between Pooky and Datisi - they're clearly TvS or (assuming good theater) SvS imo.
If you had to choose, who would you pick for scum between Arc and Pav (by PoE).
Arc. Pav is scummy because I feel like their posts kinda skirt discussion but arc was moreso for their reaction to daystart and my posts.
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Post #236 (isolation #59) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:38 pm
Postby Dwlee99 »
I still think his posts after t3 hammer were townie and his fight with Datisi seems genuine. I also feel like we kind of mind melded there on some things. If you told me one of Pooky/Dats was scum I wouldn't be sure who to pick, because I think their play both makes sense as town.
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Post #242 (isolation #60) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:49 pm
Postby Dwlee99 »
You raise some decent points and like I don't have pooky is necessarily out of scum range here (nor are a lot of people), I just think they are more townie than the other three.