Micro 295: Cowardly Hider Mafia (Game Over)

[penguin_alien]

Not sure how I feel about mass claim. Since scum know the set-up we're in, I'm not sure giving them extra info is good given that the info we get in exchange likely won't be good. But then it does give us some idea of what we have to work with, and as long as we use the info as a factor in lynches rather than dictating night actions, it keeps scum from sneaking in opportunistic claims later.

Xayzeck, why wouldn't people be able to claim? Be willing to, sure, but why 'can't'?

[penguin_alien]

You realize GiF's gonna vote the shit out of you know right?

So knowing that, do you think that post came from town- or scum-Ghatokaca?

[penguin_alien]

And by that I mean I don't get how you got ghato and I as scum partners in your reads

Why are you objecting to the partnering aspect of this rather than being scum read at all?

BRO, in your initial proposal, at what point would you expect people to commit to their supposed hider plans?

Given F-16's posts, I'm also not seeing the tremendous disparity between BRO's thoughts and Ghatokaca's. Neither of them wants 'subtle' crumbs, neither thinks we should massclaim off the bat. The 136 to 138 flip is odd, but I'm inclined to think Nacho-scum would be a bit more consistent.

GIF, do you still think massclaiming is a good idea with scum-hunting underway?

Ghat and Xay 2 obvious to be scum?

And don't base other scum on a flip that hasn't happened. That's idiotic.

Contradiction reads weird to me. And in the same vein as what I asked earlier, do you think Ghatokaca would come in as scum basically waving a red flag at GIF in your interpretation? Both heads are capable of subtlety as scum.

[penguin_alien]

bubbajack8, my second question was asking whether you thought that scum-Ghatokaca would come in doing something likely to antagonize the most active poster in the thread.

VOTE: Jessica

I don't care if you don't have a role PM. You still should contribute something. This reads to me I'm waiting to see what side I'm on, because if I'm scum I need a plan.

Really? No way would I want someone posting content if they haven't read their role PM (in this case due to not having one). What do you think of their posting since then? Seeing as you read page 7.

Varsoon's suggested plan comes from a town mindset. I don't know if I'd endorse it for everyone, but it seems like a good starting point, as in 'unless you have a compelling reason to hide, don't.'

et tu, penguin?

I don't always get jokes when they're that short...

In 202 notscience becomes a town lean. The 'people not getting the set-up' thing resonates a lot, especially given my experience in Great/er Idea games where invariably the one whining about not getting it/not knowing what they were getting into flips scum. notscience also isn't afraid to just go, 'hell if I know how to read player X,' instead of feeling compelled to give reads.

I'm inclined to think BRO is towny for trying to avoid people haring off and revealing things via bad crumbing.

Theres one way to go with the setup, and that is to divide the players to 3~4 subgroups based on claims after massclaiming at the same time and make the hider from the group check one of the other group.
Didnt really wanted to out this plan until the massclaim happened, but since we can't get everyone to massclaim, might as well out it.

If we're talking about this, what happens if we have an extreme number of hiders one way or the other, like only two or up to seven claimed?

Nacho feels more engaged and 'pushing things' than I'd expect from scum-Nacho; town read on Ghatokaca right now. The direct interaction with GiF's reads list in particular leans this way.

Not getting anything from Jessica's posts. I don't like the vote before acknowledging the role PM receipt, and I don't like the notscience push.

So as of now:

Townish in no order: notscience, Varsoon, BRO, Ghatokaca, maybe GiF
Undecided: bubbajack8, Xayzeck
Scummy: Jessica

[penguin_alien]

I interpreted BRO's posts as trying to find a way for PRs to leave indicators of their night actions without broadcasting everything to scum. I'm not seeing the scum motivation there.

Are you saying his plan is flawed or that him attacking your hydra's disinterest in breaking the game is scummy?

Can you elaborate on your emoticons in response to NS's post?

[penguin_alien]

I interpreted BRO's posts as trying to find a way for PRs to leave indicators of their night actions without broadcasting everything to scum. I'm not seeing the scum motivation there.

I don't think he's scum because of the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of his plan. I don't think the effectiveness or the ineffectiveness of his plan is related to his alignment. Why do you disagree?

Are you saying his plan is flawed or that him attacking your hydra's disinterest in breaking the game is scummy?

Not quite. I do think that him attacking F-16's disinterest in breaking the game after I showed up and starting pushing him is scummy, though.

In my experience BRO's the type of player who likes to take advantage of mechanics. I think scum-BRO could come up with a way to lead town down the garden path in a plan of action.

I'm also not seeing that events went down the way you're saying. F-16 came into the thread Friday night with his statements, you came in early Saturday morning, BRO wasn't posting again until after you'd both posted. It's not like he posted, ignoring F-16's statements, and then you attacked him, at which point he circled back to making a big deal out of something he'd ignored.

Ghatokaca, either head, any thoughts on Jessica? Especially in light of their BRO town read?

bubbajack8, my second question was asking whether you thought that scum-Ghatokaca would come in doing something likely to antagonize the most active poster in the thread.

I don't see why they wouldn't especially if they are saying something they don't like.

So you think Ghatokaca didn't like GiF planning?

Jessica, 169 has zero explanations except coming in halfway through the game day and putting down a venge-vote. Can you elaborate on your stances on BRO and Ghatokaca? And if you have notscience insight, that'd be useful.

[penguin_alien]

Townish

bubbajack8 (typical town-bubba so far, but it's not enough to give him a full townread yet. Why is this typical town-bubba? It's because of the Metamorphically Enhanced Transgalactic Astronaut. A.K.A. It didn't change.)

Null-Town

- Jessica (Kat just outright screaming "GIF IS NULL EVEN THOUGH HE'S POSTY" was just . The way they call notsci scum is also but that's not necessarily scummy. Otherwise, I kinda like their posts.)

Can you talk to me about bubba? I found his reasons to be voting Jessica good, but it was the best thing I recall from his play.

What do you like about Jessica? I'd want to see them wagoned if I didn't think we need to sort Ghatokaca-BRO here, actually.

In that vein,

In my experience BRO's the type of player who likes to take advantage of mechanics. I think scum-BRO could come up with a way to lead town down the garden path in a plan of action.

i don't think that he's able to snow this playerlist very easily and i'm not really sure risking it is worth it

Aside from you and GiF, I'm not sure who he'd be afraid of, and GiF's a guess. And no, I'm not being disingenuous by leaving myself off that list, given how thoroughly BRO snookered me in NY 165 and would have in bork's Mini Touhou.

What about the issue of the order of his engaging with you and F-16?

BRO, stepping back from their attack on you, if you're town, what else that's gone down so far is useful?

P-edit: Varsoon, what about notscience has bugged you? That you don't like his recent play implies that the null read is where he slipped to after being somewhat of a town read.

Also, have you played with scum-me? I don't remember any such games, but I don't always remember hydras I play with.

[penguin_alien]

Aside from you and GiF, I'm not sure who he'd be afraid of, and GiF's a guess. And no, I'm not being disingenuous by leaving myself off that list, given how thoroughly BRO snookered me in NY 165 and would have in bork's Mini Touhou.

There's nobody on this list that I'm afraid of playing from either side. There is almost nobody on this site that I'm not confident in my ability to beat as either alignment if I bring my A-game.

'Afraid' probably wasn't the right word there. Prioritizing to neutralize as scum is more accurate.

BRO, stepping back from their attack on you, if you're town,

what else that's gone down so far is useful?

Is this referring to events over the entire game, or specifically in my interactions with Ghato?

Either, actually, but more the rest of the game and their non-you interactions. Until your recent reads list, I didn't have much of a sense of what your other thoughts were. My gut says this is town-you and doesn't trust Ghatokaca's reactions here, and if that's accurate, your reads are darn useful. Based on #333, I assume you don't see GiF and Varsoon as partners? How would you rank that second-string list?

I tend to agree about Xayzeck's reads list not in light of yours but more in light of that it includes the high-volume posters, and while he's deferring reading them, it reads more like they're null right now. Which, I get being hesitant about you and Ghatokaca, but GiF as well?

GiF, what I don't quite jive with on Jessica is that this doesn't feel like the town-Marquis I've played with. Within the hydra he looks townier than normal, especially with his other head posting a lot in a very stream-of-consciousness way. I'll trust your bubba read for now though.

BRO, I assume you still like your basically circular plan similar to Medical Mafia strategy, except that presumably we'd pick someone to pre-hypoclaim , and their target claims, etc.?

@penguin: Why haven't you voted yet?

I don't like the BRO wagon at this point, and I'm torn between you and Ghatokaca. I was thinking Ghatokaca, but then your list where you throw up your hands at the people who are the center of attention bugs me. (also, I'm a she, FYI)

[penguin_alien]

Hence finding the slot towny at this point (as opposed to earler) even though I'm not seeing the town-Marquis I'd expect.

[penguin_alien]

In my experience BRO's the type of player who likes to take advantage of mechanics. I think scum-BRO could come up with a way to lead town down the garden path in a plan of action.

Not quite what you mean by "garden path."

Sorry, it's a phrase that means to deceive a person, implying that the victim(s) are being lulled into not noticing the deception.

[penguin_alien]

Now this sounds like town-BRO.

[penguin_alien]

When you realize I'm town I'll be waiting to chat about the game.

So.

Thoughts on the BRO lynch? Realizing that him putting himself at L-1 couldn't reasonably have been anticipated.

Varsoon, where do you stand on GiF now, seeing as that post is apparently from last day phase?

[penguin_alien]

The way I see it, I flip town, then you've got Jessica in lylo who have been tunneled on me all game, not looking at others.

Varsoon is probably dead tonight, albeit the fact his paranoia is useful to scum in lylo

Nacho/F16 lurk some more

GIF's another option to be dead, paranoia over his obvtownity will exist tomorrow though

Xay's scum and will continue to parrot thoughts but you won't see it so it's whatever

Cabd will post votecounts

Miss anyone?

Nope

Hi.

I'm really bugged at the L-1 L-0 votes tbh peng. The kill bugs me too.

Nacho/F16 were big proponents of the BRO wagon, do you think eliminating BRO early is something they'd try to do as scum?

I think they're capable of manipulating BRO into his meltdown. And Nacho isn't afraid to go after people hard, although it's more what I'd expect from F-16 as scum. Nacho in my observations likes to pull the strings from behind the scenes, so to speak, when he's scum, pushing wagons from behind. I need to review whether Nacho or F-16 really kicked off the BRO push. If Nacho, Ghatokaca more likely town; if F-16, more likely Ghatokaca scum.

Don't like Xayzeck's NK spec. That with the day start vote back on Ghatokaca that he didn't back up and the switch to GiF for something that had happened when he'd first voted all adds up to Xayzeck-scum.

VOTE: Xayzeck

I believe that's L-1.

[penguin_alien]

OK, I think Nacho's the one who kicked off the BRO push, which makes me lean toward them being town. I suck at discerning who's posting what in hydras when not signed, but I'm pretty sure F-16 was signing when the unsigned posts pushing BRO showed up.

[penguin_alien]

Between the two of you, given BRO's temperament, I could see you planning the line of attack. However, I think Nacho wouldn't have taken the lead in doing so. You aren't afraid to make hard pushing attacks as scum, although I may be biased by your run at me in Micro 264 in that assessment.

P-edit: Very well, ns, you're forgiven. What do you think of my assessment that scum-Ghatokaca would have taken a different tack against town-BRO?

[penguin_alien]

Don't like Xayzeck's NK spec. That with the day start vote back on Ghatokaca that he didn't back up and the switch to GiF for something that had happened when he'd first voted all adds up to Xayzeck-scum.

VOTE: Xayzeck

I believe that's L-1.

How does any of this add up to Xay scum?

I thought it looked like scum posturing in that he put his vote back on you without trying to convince anyone that it was a good vote based on the new information that was available at least with BRO's flip. He then came to the 'realization' that GiF had done something scummy. For reference, here's the post sequence:

VOTE: Ghato

I can't do ISOs right now, I'm putting my vote back where it was for now. If you have questions for me I'll get to them in about 12 hours.

Tries to see if the default Ghatokaca wagon'll take off.

What I don't get is the night kill. Why would scum kill bubba, when you could kill someone like Varsoon? I don't think people would hide behind bubba, and tbh he wasn't exactly super town.

Conversation doesn't go where he wants it to; attempted redirect.

I think scum were expecting the hiders not to hide, since it's pretty established already that hiding only helps scum. And of all the people, bubba?

I don't like how GiF just hammered Bro without hesitation though. Though I doubt scum would do something that dumb, I'll call it scummy.

VOTE: GiF

And now he notices the GiF hammer? Obviously I was wrong, but it all felt very contrived at the time.

Varsoon's hammer was crap, but I don't think there was scum motivation there in sealing a lynch on town that wasn't in danger of being derailed. I was going to suggest that we hypo-claim hiding targets in the event of hammer intent being declared to be implemented if the lynch flipped scum, but any such plans would have also helped scum in terms of information. Scum had no reason to do that, so I'll call Varsoon lousy town for it.

I still like my take on Ghatokaca's approach to BRO. I think I like Nacho coming in and engaging everyone. As scum who basically missed D2, he could wash his hands of making decisions or taking the lead if he wanted to. I might be reading too much into it, and I think I've only found scum-Nacho once in X-Men and had to be dragged there kicking and screaming. Tentatively townish.

That leaves notscience and Jessica. I tend to think only one of them is scum, given how much this game premise could have swung in our favor if we'd hit scum with room to spare. Which makes one of my town reads wrong.

Jessica felt spontaneous with the independent hydra heads posting, but I wasn't seeing the expected Marquis if they're town, for better or worse I still don't know.

notscience, what do you mean about GiF targeting you? He upgraded you, yeah, but it's pretty fuzzy, and I'd think if he'd targeted you, he'd have hinted at it in his hammer post, since he was the only one who could crumb before the hammer, since he didn't declare intent. Otherwise it's a potential waste of a hide, never mind the commuting possibilities.

More later when I have time to read D1 again. I'm pretty sure there's scum in Jessica-notscience, but the unlikelihood of them being scum together makes me not sure about the game picture.

[penguin_alien]

Hi F-16,

I'm pretty sure you're town here as per my theory on your approach to BRO day one, so I'd rather you didn't mislynch me here as a substitute for not managing it in 264. I'm planning to run through some double ISOs tomorrow, see what I'm missing in terms of possible scum teams, because people aren't making sense in isolation. Tonight I'm not going to have the energy though, sorry.

I've read Jessica's post a few times and still don't follow their logic. I'm inclined to think that they're town for being so unclear, but I want to evaluate a notscience-Varsoon scum team to see if that makes this game make sense or if I'm misreading one of you hydras.

--PA

P-edit: I think I follow Jessica's logic, but I'm also not sure why anyone would risk hiding last night at all, which makes me suspicious. This got weird again.

[penguin_alien]

Interesting that you think you can steamroll my mislynch through by being loud and posting tragic penguin pictures.

Seriously, haven't had time to run through double ISOs, but you running at me like this is making me think this is scum-Nacho pushing my mislynch from behind again. Because why fix it if it isn't broken, eh?

Reevaluating tonight.

[penguin_alien]

But you can explain to me why I'd try a failed strategy again.

~ F-16

The repeated strategy I was referencing was Nacho getting me mislynched while cheerleading the wagon. Your push in 264 was different, yes, and the differences between your play here and there are what made me think town in spite of your hydra's unwillingness to listen WRT BRO. What you did have in common here with 264 was the incentive to go for broke. Doing so there was more useful in that you planned to benefit either way, whether you got me lynched or tarred me with your brush via the OTT attack. Here, if you're scum, you only need one mislynch, and this player list is more volatile than 264. That volatility is why I do think that if I'm wrong and you're scum, this would be a viable strategy for you.

Okay, pictures and stuff aside, this was the first post that gave me a really strong scumread:

Given F-16's posts, I'm also not seeing the tremendous disparity between BRO's thoughts and Ghatokaca's. Neither of them wants 'subtle' crumbs, neither thinks we should massclaim off the bat. The 136 to 138 flip is odd, but I'm inclined to think Nacho-scum would be a bit more consistent.

What is the point of this other than a really subtle defense of us and more specifically Nacho? Given that Nacho's MO is to mislynch you, I highly doubt, you would subtly defend him when under pressure. You'd be a little more paranoid and more inquisitive to make sure that you catch Nacho-scum this time around. I highly doubt you would throw in such an under-the-table defense of Nacho-scum being consistent so therefore inconsistent = town? The amount of hedging you are doing here is laughably scummy. What I am getting from it is "Ghatokaca isn't scummy, but the flip is odd, but I think Nacho-scum would be more consistent" and they way you phrased it and the way you are hedging is really scummy. I think it is far more likely you didn't want to trip our scumdar and started the subtle defense.

~ F-16

First, Nacho only normally mislynches me when he's scum. When we're both town, he may waver but usually gets me right in the end. In the post you're quoting, I was trying to get a handle on what was going on with your slot, given that you're both good players and I was trying to figure out if this was scum-BRO getting ready to roll me again. I actually had more confidence in my ability to spot scum-Nacho than scum-BRO, which meant that sorting Nacho first was an easier starting point. You'll note that my town read on Nacho sure didn't extend to sheeping his read on BRO.

Also, Nacho-scum plans. See HP: CoS where he came in gunning for me deliberately and then buddied me via fake investigation. If he was going to go after a BRO mislynch there, I'd expect him to be more organized and sneaky.

My theory is a stretch, I'll admit that. I may be biased in thinking that Nacho goes on the offensive with spontaneous cases more as town. But I'm getting town indicators from everyone individually. What's frustrating about your slot is that you weren't here for most of the short Day Two, and Day One you tunneled on BRO, which means that that tunnel and your D3 start is most of what I have to go on here.

Varsoon, you say Jessica-notscience as a scum team might be confused about implementing a faked hider clearing strategy; how does this set-up having day talk affect that theory?

Jessica, quoting vote counts does nothing to explain why you're suddenly ready to lynch me when you voted Ghatokaca before.

OK. Off to read double ISOs for real now.

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: Ghatokaca

[penguin_alien]

Thanks for the game, Cabd! It was interesting. Sorry we didn't kill any hiders to validate your setup.

It was a blast working with you, Varsoon! I'll assume someone will link the scum QT.

Sorry, F-16...you really had me hopping there, FWIW.

P-edit: sorry, BRO...

[penguin_alien]

I have a strong desire to quit mafia and go hunt Penguins.

If it helps, I laughed my ass off. Then laughed more when you 180'd it into a town read.

I was also quite amused by the pics, although I may have made a new resolution not to get in a helicopter with you any time soon...

Thanks, BRO.

[penguin_alien]

This would be an neat Mini Theme. It would give both sides more flexibility to use their powers, maybe?