Micro 309: Triplicate Mafia (Game Over)

[Who]

I agree, I would much prefer to be in with coconuts for two reasons:

1) I love coconuts.

2) I wanted to lynch Whoooo.

Well you can't lynch me, what now?

[Who]

It's the fishes.
VOTE: Blackfish

Why would you assume that they are only for scum when the nature of the game (Town being divided into groups) implies that it could be for town as well?

[Who]

It's the fishes.
VOTE: Blackfish

Why would you assume that they are only for scum when the nature of the game (Town being divided into groups) implies that it could be for town as well?

Nothing about the nature of the game suggested that the three groups would have private communication. As far as I understood it, the group divisions are made solely for voting purposes and to help town with POE, with group members only being able to vote for themselves and town getting 2 confirmed townies when a mafia member is lynched. This I believe to counteract the mountainous effect of the game and provide a mechanic to help town in the absence of power roles. I assumed scum use the private threads instead of having a scum QT since that's what the OP implied. I am not following why I should think that the game implies town have private communication.

I'm not saying it should be assumed, I'm merely saying it is an easy mistake to make. Also, why would scum be stupid enough to ask publicly?

[Who]

1. If that was directed at the mod, it should be bolded. If it was directed at the other players, why would we know more than you do? Because...
2. Reading the rules is good.

Day 1 End and Lynching
3. If a group does NOT pick a player to lynch by the deadline, the Mafia will choose who within that group is to be lynched.

After Day 1
4. Town may select No Lynch at this point. Reaching deadline will no lynch.

[Who]

It's the fishes.
VOTE: Blackfish

Why would you assume that they are only for scum when the nature of the game (Town being divided into groups) implies that it could be for town as well?

Nothing about the nature of the game suggested that the three groups would have private communication. As far as I understood it, the group divisions are made solely for voting purposes and to help town with POE, with group members only being able to vote for themselves and town getting 2 confirmed townies when a mafia member is lynched. This I believe to counteract the mountainous effect of the game and provide a mechanic to help town in the absence of power roles. I assumed scum use the private threads instead of having a scum QT since that's what the OP implied. I am not following why I should think that the game implies town have private communication.

I'm not saying it should be assumed, I'm merely saying it is an easy mistake to make. Also, why would scum be stupid enough to ask publicly?

Scum are obviously not stupid enough to ask publicly why they haven't received their QT links and Tiershift asking for it was either a towntell (or a fake one). I wasn't sure enough which so I pushed him to see if he reacted in an alignment revealing way. His response was a little sarcastic and dismissive which bothered me so I checked to see if it was alignment indicative for him to react that way in his other games and found nothing. I have a slight town lean based on his trying to shut down the discussion but it is not strong.

As for your post, why did you jump in and answer for Tiershift before he had a chance to respond himself?

Because I cared far more about your response to my question than his response to yours.

As regards grouptalk, I think we should mostly stick to within our groups but not outright ban cross-group discussion.

[Who]

On second thoughts, you probably couldn't. But I'd still like to know why you were uninterested in hearing what Tiershift had to say or where my questioning of him would lead us to. Your jump struck me as somewhat overeager.

I had a similar response to him when I saw the thing about private topics, the only difference was that I was on my phone and quoting one section of the first post would have been a hassle.

I also want to know why you would like to mostly "stick within our groups." I think the optimal play is to have players interact with everyone and influence all lynches.

Well personally I'm more confident on my read of people within group coconut than any other group, also I think it would be more fun this way. As regards "optimal play", I think that without the ability to vote for one another then normal (What everyone is used to analyzing) play will not occur, and we will not be able to effectively analyze what does go on.

[Who]

Well personally I'm more confident on my read of people within group coconut than any other group

Why?

No reason, I just do at the moment.

As regards "optimal play", I think that without the ability to vote for one another then normal (What everyone is used to analyzing) play will not occur, and we will not be able to effectively analyze what does go on.

We can hear the opinions of other players and allow them to influence the lynches and see where they lead. Constraining ourselves to just our groups feels like deliberately cutting off the amount of information we gain.

I'm not saying we should explicitly make sure not to talk about out-of-group stuff, I'm just saying we should focus on our own groups, and each group should go with what they think, not with what everyone else thinks.
Information we can't use means nothing.

[Who]

My reads:

RedCoyote - Null
TierShift - town
LeMidget - town
BROseidon - null
BipolarChemist - null
goodmorning - town
Blackfish - scum
Formerfish - null

[Who]

Lemidget, what is your read on Blackfish?

Because I see him as solidly scum.

[Who]

Not having other wagons to work with is annoying me.

I agree. Of course, even with votes there are no (Well, sorta) hammers so it's slightly different but no votes means nothing to work with.

[Who]

I could see the Black and Former Fish working together. That's mostly based on names as well though.

I find myself agreeing with BRO a lot.

I feel the same.

I see it as probably Blackfish+either RC or FF. Possibly BpC.

[Who]

I'm currently thinking GM is town and thus it's RC. That said, a vote for RC right now will make us lose if I'm wrong and I'd rather not bring someone to L-1 after being only 2 posts into the day.

[Who]

VOTE: RedCoyote
Thank you for confirming that you're scum. Everyone, let's lynch this scumfuck then attempt to determine which of BpC/BRO is his partner.

[Who]

Mathematically, those odds get screwed up by the fact that one of us is guaranteed to be scum (Because otherwise scum would quickhammer).

I wanna say it's 50/50 from the perspective of any random townie (From our perspectives a you-lynch obviously has a 100% chance of being scum) but I have a feeling that those odds get screwed with in a similar way the 50/50 gets screwed with in the Monty Hall problem.

[Who]

How can scum quickhammer if you are at L-2, Who? Unless you are saying that you know I am town...

If you are town then scum can quickhammer, thus you are not.

[Who]

VOTE: RedCoyote
Thank you for confirming that you're scum. Everyone, let's lynch this scumfuck then attempt to determine which of BpC/BRO is his partner.

Calm down, Mr. Sweary-Pants. As much as I agree he is scum, we shouldn't be rushing to lynch.

From your perspective I agree. From my perspective he's confscum and I have no reason to delay.

[Who]

How can scum quickhammer if you are at L-2, Who? Unless you are saying that you know I am town...

If you are town then scum can quickhammer, thus you are not.

So I guess that means I am town since scum didn't quickhammer me either, right?

No, it means that you must be scum since scum didn't quickhammer you either.

From the perspective of a random townie who is not me, the following scenarios are possibility:
1. Both-scum: Well no, scum can't quickhammer in that scenario.
2. Neither-scum: Scum quickhammers town loses.
3. You-scum: Scum wouldn't quickhammer you and can't quickhammer me.
4. Me-scum: Scum wouldn't quickhammer me and can't quickhammer you.

I know I am town and thus it is neither case #1 nor case #4. In case #2, we would have already lost/we will lose very quickly and there is nothing I can do about it unless you unvote right now. Thus it must be case #3, thus, you must be scum.

That's nice and all, but even is he is confirmed to you there is still the matter of tomorrow. We should be discussing now instead of later when we have more town members present.

I suppose.
@GM
As someone who will be conftown tonight and will thus probably die tonight, whom do you think we should lynch tomorrow?

[Who]

Mathematically, those odds get screwed up by the fact that one of us is guaranteed to be scum (Because otherwise scum would quickhammer).

Or I could be Scum, not having been on to quickhammer...

In which case you are on now and still have not quickhammered. Back then, my reasoning was that if you were scum then town had already lost and thus that possibility did not need to be considered.

Plus if one of you is scum then your crossvoting means no quickhammers, though this is making my head hurt.

And no quickhammers, thus one of us is scum.

So. To think about this more, one or both of RC and Who must be Scum (fmpov). Therefore it is that as much as I would like to vote BRO, it is more statistically responsible to vote one of those two. Hmm.

From all points of view at least one of us is scum. From my point of view he's scum.

@GM
As someone who will be conftown tonight and will thus probably die tonight, whom do you think we should lynch tomorrow?

That's an interesting statement, assumption, and question. I don't know (probably BRO?). Let the day play out a bit first, yeah?

I assume we'll lynch either RC or I today because at least one of us is guaranteed to be scum from all points of view. From my point of view, RC is guaranteed to be scum and one of BpC/BRO is guaranteed to be scum, but from your point of view and from the other towny's point of view there is no such guarantee. If I am lynched the town loses and thus that scenario does not need to be considered. If RC is lynched you become conftown. Thus in all (Well, the only) likely scenarios worth considering, you become conftown. I can see no reason why scum would leave the conftowny alive and turn it into 1v1.

[Who]

It would appear that this game is stalling while everyone waits to reread and such.

[Who]

Reading more now.

Given that scum have day talk, there's 100% scum b/w Who and RC. If the team were BC and GM, they'd have worked out a time to quickhammer by now (from a not-me POV you can throw me into that group).

Where were the scum confirmed to have daytalk?

[Who]

EBWODP: Nevermind, it's in the general rules.

Strange, because I looked for a rule on it earlier but couldn't find it.

[Who]

See, now I'm frustrated because I realize I look like the bad guy here because I act impulsively as town. Whereas the scumteam have probably been fleshing out their strategy in the QT about what to do if one of them get voted. As soon as I voted Who, it was like he had an entire dissertation ready to unload on me explaining why my vote was a scum vote.

And he knows it's a good argument because there's a lot of validity to what he's saying... but it's like, I didn't go to all these lengths to visit every angle about "What if A votes B?" To me, that sounds more like something scum would do.

To me everything I said was blatantly obvious and a mere extension of how in 3p lylo if two people crossvote then the non-voter is conftown.

Also, I agree with what you said about it being unfortunate that your vote shifted things entirely to me vs. you and away from BRO vs BpC, but that was probably your intention in the first place.

[Who]

Prod received, I'm currently unsure of whom to vote.

GM leaned BRO, but I'm not sure.

[Who]

I haven't done my read-through yet, but I have reasons to think both of you are scum.

With you, I didn't like you as much as I did day 1 when I was re-reading yesterday. I noticed some behavior that could have come from a scum position, particularly with how you interacted with blackfish (I don't remember the exact details, but it was a lot of the stuff with you criticizing his disposition towards the game). Additionally, you hammered very quickly yesterday, which could have been scum-you seeing that your buddy was going down and trying to cut off discussion as to prevent yourself from slipping up.

With Who, I don't remember a lot of what he did. That could imply a cross-bus intended to let the other carry in LyLo. This would additionally make sense if Who told RC about his recent scum win over town-me in UPick mafia. Additionally, I early-townread you, and I don't give scum early town reads that often (my rate of doing it is well below 1/game at this point).

My win in UPick was nothing to do with you, if anything taking you into LYLO would probably have made me lose. I fail to see how that would cause scum-me to take you into LYLO.

I haven't done my read-through yet, but I have reasons to think both of you are scum.

With you, I didn't like you as much as I did day 1 when I was re-reading yesterday. I noticed some behavior that could have come from a scum position, particularly with how you interacted with blackfish (I don't remember the exact details, but it was a lot of the stuff with you criticizing his disposition towards the game). Additionally, you hammered very quickly yesterday, which could have been scum-you seeing that your buddy was going down and trying to cut off discussion as to prevent yourself from slipping up.

With Who, I don't remember a lot of what he did. That could imply a cross-bus intended to let the other carry in LyLo. This would additionally make sense if Who told RC about his recent scum win over town-me in UPick mafia. Additionally, I early-townread you, and I don't give scum early town reads that often (my rate of doing it is well below 1/game at this point).

I got a little pissed off/annoyed at BF. That was fairly unrelated to game itself.

I did hammer quick yesterday. They day was going basically nowhere and speaking from pure chance it was 50/50 on you and Who, and 50/50 on GM and RC. RC seemed scummy for quite a while and like there was the best chance there, so I went for it.

I believe you early town read both of us, at least in 260.

Those are very strange odds, could you elaborate as to what you mean by them?

About your hammer, as you yourself said:

VOTE: RedCoyote
Thank you for confirming that you're scum. Everyone, let's lynch this scumfuck then attempt to determine which of BpC/BRO is his partner.

Calm down, Mr. Sweary-Pants. As much as I agree he is scum, we shouldn't be rushing to lynch.

That's nice and all, but even is he is confirmed to you there is still the matter of tomorrow. We should be discussing now instead of later when we have more town members present.

Why didn't we discuss things more yesterday when we had more town members present? Because you hammered.

[Who]

And how were you so sure of there being scum in group A? Why couldn't it be BRO and I?

[Who]

BpC, whom do you currently think we should lynch?

[Who]

This is going nowhere. Who, Same question to you, who do you think we should lynch?

You. The vote for RC yesterday felt a bit off, also your impatience reads like scum eager to finish things and win.

[Who]

Hopefully I was wrong.

VOTE: BROseidon

[Who]

Called it.

Good game.

[Who]

Honestly, I just wanted to lynch Who. I got to accomplish that. I am so damn grateful.

I am now of the opinion that all LYLOs should be decided via duel.