Micro 328: Cult Vengeful -- GAME OVER

hayatoBL · Post Post #14 (isolation #0) » Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:22 am

hei....

VOTE: No Lynch

kabooooom wrote:Lol. I saw where your vote was but i think i misunderstood.

and yeah it was actually quite obvious. The one who confirmed the last gets to post first.

Tell me exactly how you misunderstood.

hayatoBL · Post Post #15 (isolation #1) » Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:26 am

In post 10, Snarky wrote:Why have you unvoted without voting someone else? and it's not that dangerous to put someone at L-1 in this setup I think.

What makes you think that it's not dangerous to put someone on L-1 in this setup?

hayatoBL · Post Post #16 (isolation #2) » Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:28 am

idK: Are you using an alt account? If not, how much experiece do you have playing mafia?

hayatoBL · Post Post #20 (isolation #3) » Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:49 am

Since i'm the last to post, I feel obligated to put down a serious vote. And with the info I have right now, there is no one in particular, who I think is scum. A no lynch helps town more than a random lynch right now.

How would it help town to put a random player on L-1 right now?

Don't you think scum-idk would wait and see if someone hammers HS, instead of unvoting?

Pedit - Well. You're assuming there will be no VI in this game?

hayatoBL · Post Post #56 (isolation #4) » Sun Apr 20, 2014 1:02 pm

In post 30, kabooooom wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 14, hayatoBL wrote:hei....

VOTE: No Lynch

kabooooom wrote:Lol. I saw where your vote was but i think i misunderstood.

and yeah it was actually quite obvious. The one who confirmed the last gets to post first.
Tell me exactly how you misunderstood.

i was on phone. When i saw posts and posted my vote and stuff, i probably forgot whom did he vote for.

To misunderstand something and to forget something are too different things. Try answering correctly the first time.

In post 33, kabooooom wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 20, hayatoBL wrote:Since i'm the last to post, I feel obligated to put down a serious vote. And with the info I have right now, there is no one in particular, who I think is scum. A no lynch helps town more than a random lynch right now.

How would it help town to put a random player on L-1 right now?

Don't you think scum-idk would wait and see if someone hammers HS, instead of unvoting?

Pedit - Well. You're assuming there will be no VI in this game?

1.
why do you think scum idk would wait for someone to hammer when he can unvote and get a town card. Because getting a town card is easy, while if he keeps his vote, i and him will be both under suspicious.

2.
also, why do you think we wint have more info. In day 1?! We still have almost a week!!

1. First off, please don't answer questions I posted for someone else.

Scum-idk doing nothing and hoping for someone to accidentally hammer HS is something that I would do. And he didn't get any easy town-card like you suggested. In fact, he got a vote for doing so.

So, idk did something, which you think is town. snarky voted him because of that. And you didn't say anything about it?

2. I didn't say that.

hayatoBL · Post Post #57 (isolation #5) » Sun Apr 20, 2014 1:09 pm

In post 37, Snarky wrote: Now, I need everyone's opinion here. Do you think HighShroomish unconvincing blabber of numbers was uninformed, but genuine, or do you think it was scum manipulation? I believe in the latter, what's your take on it?

Tbh, I skimmed the part, where you guys were calculating probabilities. It made my head spin.

I believe, HS would be bad at math independent of alignment. (if he did calculated wrongly)

hayatoBL · Post Post #58 (isolation #6) » Sun Apr 20, 2014 1:19 pm

In post 31, kabooooom wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 29, kabooooom wrote:What does FoS mean? And why wouldn't you vote hayato for proposing no lynch?!

speaking of which, hayato why would you propose no lynch and still don't vote it?

highshroom, explain your logic, how is no lynch better than lynch?!

k. Hayato, i see you have voted no lynch ok. But explain me your logic.

Simple. I vote to lynch. The moment my vote is on a player, I'm ready to end the day with that players' lynch. That makes my vote stronger than yours.

Putting a vote to pressure someone, while declaring that it was a vote for pressure has a weak effect. (like what Snark did) Scum-HS knows that those aren't real vote. I won't budge if I'm scum-HS right now.

Right now I'm only ready for a No Lynch. Do I expect someone to actually hammer the No Lynch? No. The event of that happening is very unprobable. Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?

hayatoBL · Post Post #68 (isolation #7) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:25 am

Snarky wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 58, hayatoBL wrote:Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?

If idk is scum, and "acts brazently and hammers", as you said, he will recruit someone on night 1, get lynched on D2, and on D3 we'll be obliged to find his recruit with no more information we have now on D1, with only 25% chance of lynching right. "Brazenly hammering" is the optimal play for scum, so, you or HS,
REMOVE YOUR ************** NO LYNCH VOTE!!!

Ok. Somehow, I never thought about this.

UNVOTE:

hayatoBL · Post Post #69 (isolation #8) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:30 am

So let's forget about no lynch and decide on someone to lynch.

Right now I think Snarky is town. Kaboom or HS is scummy. Idk about idk. He's the big null.

hayatoBL · Post Post #70 (isolation #9) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:52 am

Snarky could have hammered that No Lynch and follow his own plan on 64 but didn't. Probably town.

I'll write more about my scum-reads next time. Too lazy right now.

hayatoBL · Post Post #71 (isolation #10) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:53 am

@Snarky. Don't tunnel HS too much. Read again on kabooom.

hayatoBL · Post Post #73 (isolation #11) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:20 am

Well, kaboom might simply have not thought about it.

To make it clear, I see the advantage of hammering the No Lynch for in this:

Snarky wrote:
In post 58, hayatoBL wrote:Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?
If idk is scum, and "acts brazently and hammers", as you said, he will recruit someone on night 1, get lynched on D2, and on D3 we'll be obliged to find his recruit with no more information we have now on D1, with only 25% chance of lynching right. "Brazenly hammering" is the optimal play for scum, so, you or HS,
REMOVE YOUR ************** NO LYNCH VOTE!!!

I don't think kaboom has expressed this advantage before. If he did, I would immediately unvote. Thus, it is possible scum-kabooom hadn't thought about it and didn't hammer. But I'll reread on kaboom.

Why am I town?

hayatoBL · Post Post #74 (isolation #12) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:41 am

In post 64, Snarky wrote:
In post 58, hayatoBL wrote:Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?
If idk is scum, and "acts brazently and hammers", as you said, he will recruit someone on night 1, get lynched on D2, and on D3 we'll be obliged to find his recruit with no more information we have now on D1, with only 25% chance of lynching right. "Brazenly hammering" is the optimal play for scum, so, you or HS,
REMOVE YOUR ************** NO LYNCH VOTE!!!

Wait a minute.

There's something wrong about this. If recruiter gets lynched D2. We have 25% chance to lynch the recruited on D3 PLUS 33% chance on D4. Which totals up to 50%.

25% + 75%*33.3% = 50%

Much higher than we could have achieved today, which is 40%.

20% + 80%*25% = 40%

That was a false alarm, Snarky. Scum wouldn't have acted brazenly and hammer like you said. Care to explain?

hayatoBL · Post Post #86 (isolation #13) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:23 am

@Kaboom
Narrow down lynch pool to one and lynch scum if possible. If unsure no lynch.

hayatoBL · Post Post #87 (isolation #14) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:52 am

I'll put my thoughts out. I have issues with everyone except for idk.

Since, there could only be one scum, this means at least two out of three players from (kaboom, HS, and Snarky) are emitting town-noise. So if I want to point somebody as scum, I must also prove that the scuminess from other players are actually town-noise. So help me out here.

Thoughts on kaboooom:

1. I don't like your change of story from 'misunderstood' to 'forgot'

at post 9 and 30. And I don't like how you decided to ignore it. Town has their story straight, because the events really happend. They genuinely misunderstood or forget. Scum fabricate story.

Can you say anything about this?

2. Your lack of paranoia

towards me is worrying me. We have played in this game together in the same setup. I played *very* differently. Yet, you didn't noticed.

I'm sure I've played very aggresive in that game. While in this game, I was sitting on a No Lynch for 3 pages. Why the lack of paranoia?

If kabooom is scum

, I would say his strategy is not bad. He simply follows Snarky's lead and tries to lynch HS. HS then mistakenly thought Snarky is the scum and venge-kill him. Also, scum-kaboom subtly planted scum-reads on several players. That way he can open upnew venge-kill avenues, so that the person getting lynched have more choice to venge-kill.

hayatoBL · Post Post #88 (isolation #15) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:02 am

Thoughts on HS:

1. He has done nothing.

He comes and only argues about probability. Basically, he is being useless. His play is similar with his play in this game. He basically did nothing until he was on L-1. He was town in that game.

If HS is scum

, then he's playing *very* badly. He never suggested who is scum and never attempted to push anybody's lynch. Scum-HS only hope to win in this game is to somehow to trick people into believing, that 'he can't be scum for his lack of effort'.

hayatoBL · Post Post #89 (isolation #16) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:24 am

Thoughts on Snarky:

1.

You had no reason to think HS is scummier than me

on 27, yet there you were saying how HS is capitalizing on my mistake, when it is equally possible that I was scum for proposing No Lynch in the first place.

You've said later that my reasons were genuine. But I think, it's because of your lack of paranoia. How hard is it for scum-me to fake post 20 ?

2.

You highly doubted, that HS is town

on post 49, a very unreasonable stance to take on page 2. And now you have town-reads on kabooom and me, while others have no town-reads at all.

If Snarky is scum

, I think I can understand what he's trying to do. By 'being convinced' about HS' scuminess and tunneling him, he shows that he's not afraid to get venged-killed and thus, avoids from getting targetted. I would say, not a very bad strategy. But I think his execution is flawed.

hayatoBL · Post Post #90 (isolation #17) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:29 am

To be clear, the 'If xxx is scum' part, isn't scum-reads on them. But rather if they are scum, then that is their strategy.

I like Snarky as scum right now. I like HS as scum the least.

hayatoBL · Post Post #97 (isolation #18) » Wed Apr 23, 2014 6:53 am

@Snarky

Actually, that's good posting.

I may be wrong after all. Though it would have been better, if you had told it like this from the start. You should try your best to let people understand your thoughts completely. But I think it fits.

That second paragraph explains why you suspected HS over me and why you are convinced he is scum. You're town.

@HS

If kabooom can explain himself and no one brings anything new to the game, I'm hammering you. I'm saying this earlier, so that you might want to try to be useful and wiggle yourself out of this.

I've been doing some thinking and I realized, that one great disadvantage for scum without a No Lynch, is scum can lose for no good reason. Despite scum's effort to appear town, he can easily be the target of a venge-Kill, if the lynched person decided to lynch a potential recruit.

I think, I can see scum-HS' lack of motivation to appear town and why No Lynch is advantageous. Only after a No Lynch, is effort rewarded for scum.

@Idk

Good job doing nothing.

Pedit : Finally, something.

hayatoBL · Post Post #105 (isolation #19) » Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:57 am

In post 102, kabooooom wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 87, hayatoBL wrote:I'll put my thoughts out. I have issues with everyone except for idk.

Since, there could only be one scum, this means at least two out of three players from (kaboom, HS, and Snarky) are emitting town-noise. So if I want to point somebody as scum, I must also prove that the scuminess from other players are actually town-noise. So help me out here.

Thoughts on kaboooom:

1. I don't like your change of story from 'misunderstood' to 'forgot'
at post 9 and 30. And I don't like how you decided to ignore it. Town has their story straight, because the events really happend. They genuinely misunderstood or forget. Scum fabricate story.

Can you say anything about this?

2. Your lack of paranoia
towards me is worrying me. We have played in this game together in the same setup. I played *very* differently. Yet, you didn't noticed.

I'm sure I've played very aggresive in that game. While in this game, I was sitting on a No Lynch for 3 pages. Why the lack of paranoia?

If kabooom is scum
, I would say his strategy is not bad. He simply follows Snarky's lead and tries to lynch HS. HS then mistakenly thought Snarky is the scum and venge-kill him. Also, scum-kaboom subtly planted scum-reads on several players. That way he can open upnew venge-kill avenues, so that the person getting lynched have more choice to venge-kill.

1. english is not my native language. many times i dont get right words. but what do you mean by 'change of story'? there was no 'change of story'.

2. in last game you said no lynch helps scum or something like that and this time you proposed a no lynch plan. its the very reason i asked you question to choose what do you wanna do, lynch or no lynch in post 77. i specifically typed your name in post 88 or so. but your answer to my question is scummy. it seemed you were trying to be on both boat at the same time. you say you will narrow down to 1 suspect and lynch him, if you cant to that you will no lynch. but you didnt try to do anything like that last time.

1. 'I forgot that someone has voted HS before' and 'I misunderstood something idk said' are two different stories. I don't believe you're incapable of differentiating those two words.

2. That game was not long ago. And it was the exact same setup. You didn't think it would be useful to check me out?

Great. Your response to my 'You lack paranoia' is 'You're scummy now!' and you're even voting me for it.

So, let's see why you called me scummy. If I can't narrow lynch pool down to 1, I believe No Lynch is better than proceeding with the lynch. How is that stance scummy? I'm taking the boat which I think would help the situation. No info = NoLynch.

1.
plus, show me the posts where i 'follow' snarky. having same opinion doesnt mean you follow any one. and also if i wanted HS to get lynched, i would have already done it by now.

2.
also if you narrow down your pool to 1, and only no lynch when there you are unsure, then how come you proposed and wanted to no lynch from the very start?!

vote: hayato

1.

That would be your strategy, if you are scum this game. I'm not saying that is a scum-read though. Snarky was the first to want an HS-lynch, eventhough your RVS vote was there first. That event can happen independent of your alignment.

2.

I *was* unsure at the beginning of the day. And I still am. So where does it not fit? Though I'm leaning towards you being scum right now.

hayatoBL · Post Post #107 (isolation #20) » Thu Apr 24, 2014 9:10 am

In post 103, kabooooom wrote:
Spoiler: hayato said
In post 97, hayatoBL wrote:@Snarky

Actually, that's good posting.

I may be wrong after all. Though it would have been better, if you had told it like this from the start. You should try your best to let people understand your thoughts completely. But I think it fits.

That second paragraph explains why you suspected HS over me and why you are convinced he is scum. You're town.

@HS

If kabooom can explain himself and no one brings anything new to the game, I'm hammering you. I'm saying this earlier, so that you might want to try to be useful and wiggle yourself out of this.

I've been doing some thinking and I realized, that one great disadvantage for scum without a No Lynch, is scum can lose for no good reason. Despite scum's effort to appear town, he can easily be the target of a venge-Kill, if the lynched person decided to lynch a potential recruit.

I think, I can see scum-HS' lack of motivation to appear town and why No Lynch is advantageous. Only after a No Lynch, is effort rewarded for scum.

@Idk

Good job doing nothing.

Pedit : Finally, something.

so wait. you suspect me!! and HS but idk is town! and that was before he even posted any content. seriously?!

I didn't said idk was town. he was null. also null now.

Let's lynch. I think this is it.

VOTE: kabooooom

Your sudden suspicion towards me feels like an appeasement towards my 'you lack paranoia' argument.

I've did that as scum myself.

hayatoBL · Post Post #122 (isolation #21) » Fri Apr 25, 2014 4:31 am

That was totally unnecessary. To prove that you're town? And waste one out of two possible ways to get scum?

You should check out the Newbie game and learn something from it.

Town's lost is on you, not on me.

Shoot whoever dafuq you want.

hayatoBL · Post Post #123 (isolation #22) » Fri Apr 25, 2014 4:38 am

Oh. But don't shoot Snarky. He's town. Trust me...

hayatoBL · Post Post #129 (isolation #23) » Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:34 pm

Oh well, gg HS.

This is the second time I saw town self-lynch, trusting their own reads. Moral of the game: Don't.

You really should have discussed with me first, kaboooom. Who knows? Maybe I could have changed my reads on you.

I'm very disappointed. I put a lot of effort in this game. And sorry for the insults. I was really angry at that time. If you think I'm scum, you should try to get me lynch. Discuss it with others.

Snarky, well done. My only town-read of this game.

idk, it's probably better, if you explain your thoughts, when you do anything. How are people supposed to read you.