Micro 328: Cult Vengeful -- GAME OVER

[Aegor]

snatch

[Aegor]

Votecount 1.1

[1]

HighShroomish:

kabooooom
[1]

ikd:

Snarky

[2]

No Lynch:

hayatoBL, HighShroomish

[1]

Not Voting:

idk

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline:

(expired on 2014-05-03 16:31:08)

Mod Notes

None

[Snarky]

hayato: To answer most of your questions in one sentence: If a town VI member decided to hammer someone on day 1 and make us lose the game, I won't think town has lost the game, I will think a dumbass ruined it. Now, being able to put at least two votes on someone means being able to pressure him and get information and scumhunting going. That's why I will:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: HighShroomish

THAT'S L-1 GUYS!!

So, no lynch, really? With such a convinced tone? On page 1? Without getting any information out of day 1? Are you the cult leader trying to capitalize on Hayato's mistake? Oh and

Fos: Hayato

, for the no lynch suggestion.

[kabooooom]

Chances to get scum. (considering worst case scenario)
1 case: no lynch

a) if cult doesn't chooses to recruit:
day 2- 1/5=20% + or - skills
day 3- 1/4= 25%
day 4- 1/3= 33%

b) if cult chooses to recruit:
day 2- 2/5= 40%

2 case: we lynch
day 1- 1/5= 20%
night 1- 2/4= 50%!!

so i think it is obvious. Stats tell everything. The very idea and thought of supporting that idea is scummy!

[kabooooom]

What does FoS mean? And why wouldn't you vote hayato for proposing no lynch?!

speaking of which, hayato why would you propose no lynch and still don't vote it?

highshroom, explain your logic, how is no lynch better than lynch?!

[kabooooom]

hei....

VOTE: No Lynch

Lol. I saw where your vote was but i think i misunderstood.

and yeah it was actually quite obvious. The one who confirmed the last gets to post first.

Tell me exactly how you misunderstood.

i was on phone. When i saw posts and posted my vote and stuff, i probably forgot whom did he vote for.

[kabooooom]

What does FoS mean? And why wouldn't you vote hayato for proposing no lynch?!

speaking of which, hayato why would you propose no lynch and still don't vote it?

highshroom, explain your logic, how is no lynch better than lynch?!

k. Hayato, i see you have voted no lynch ok. But explain me your logic.

[Snarky]

FoS means Finger of Suspicion. Usually, it's for when you suspect someone less than the person you're voting for, but still want to point out that suspicion. I don't know if I suspect Hayato less than HighShroomish, however. I just can't vote two person at the same time.

[kabooooom]

Since i'm the last to post, I feel obligated to put down a serious vote. And with the info I have right now, there is no one in particular, who I think is scum. A no lynch helps town more than a random lynch right now.

How would it help town to put a random player on L-1 right now?

Don't you think scum-idk would wait and see if someone hammers HS, instead of unvoting?

Pedit - Well. You're assuming there will be no VI in this game?

why do you think scum idk would wait for someone to hammer when he can unvote and get a town card. Because getting a town card is easy, while if he keeps his vote, i and him will be both under suspicious.

also, why do you think we wint have more info. In day 1?! We still have almost a week!!

[kabooooom]

mod

: can you fix the deadline timer in vc?

thanks.

Fixed.

[kabooooom]

FoS means Finger of Suspicion. Usually, it's for when you suspect someone less than the person you're voting for, but still want to point out that suspicion. I don't know if I suspect Hayato less than HighShroomish, however. I just can't vote two person at the same time.

k. Also why is it ok for you to lose the game by a VI?!

note to everyone: if someone quick hammers, irrespective of they are town or scum, they should be venge killed. There is no point in promoting such play.

[HighShroomish]

Chances to get scum. (considering worst case scenario)
1 case: no lynch

a) if cult doesn't chooses to recruit:
day 2- 1/5=20% + or - skills
day 3- 1/4= 25%
day 4- 1/3= 33%

b) if cult chooses to recruit:
day 2- 2/5= 40%

2 case: we lynch
day 1- 1/5= 20%
night 1- 2/4= 50%!!

so i think it is obvious. Stats tell everything. The very idea and thought of supporting that idea is scummy!

Nice try. You don't factor in the vengekilling. Here are the odds with vengekilling.
Case 1- No Lynch(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 2/5- 40% Chance
Case 2- No Lynch(Cult Doesn't Recruit)
D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 1/5- 20% Chance
Case 3- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/2- LOSE
Case 4- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Doesn't Recruit(Which would be stupid))
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 1/3- 33.3%
Case 5- We Lynch Town+Vengekill SCUM
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 0/4- WIN
Case 6- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/4- 50%
-6v1- Lynch Town
-D3- 2/3- 66%
-6v2- Lynch Scum
-D3- 1/4- 25%
Case 7- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Doesn't Recruit)
D1- Same as all the others
D2- 1/4- 25%

I didn't even go all in depth. Your cases and odds were a bit lacking, kabooooom. You couldn't have done a worse case scenario if you haven't gone in depth on all the odds, which you obviously have not.
And Snarky, those odds assume random lynch and vengence targets. It doesn't account for player ability and knowledge.

[Snarky]

So, you're telling me your odds are factoring in player ability and knowledge? How have you done that, tell me?

And what's the conclusion of all these numbers?

And it's funny how, if we No Lynch, we've got 20% chance of lynching scum D1

Here's what the real numbers are:

If we lynch, we've got: 20% chance of lynching scum D1 and winning.
80% chance of lynching a townie

From this 80% chance, we have: 25% chance of vengekilling scum and winning
25% chance of killing the recruited townie and going to day 2, assuming the Cult recruits
50% chance of losing by killing a townie

In total, we've got 40% chance of winning D1, 50%*80%=40% chance of losing D1, and 20% chance of going to D2.

If we go to D2, we have: 25% chance of lynching scum and winning, 75% of losing. Thus, we have 40% + (25%*20%)= 45% chance of winning, and 55% chance of losing.

If we No Lynch, however, we have to lynch scum D2 (40% chance, since the cult will have recruited), THEN lynch scum D3 (25%) or D4 (33,3%) =(58,3%), thus, having a chance of winning of 40%*58,3% = 23,3% chance of winning.

Yes, we will have four days instead of 1 or 2. Yes we may be able to hunt scum better by interactions when there is going to be more than one cult member, but our odds drop by more than 50%! I don't think our skill can fill that gap, especially since we'll have to deal everyday with scum manipulation.

Now, I need everyone's opinion here. Do you think HighShroomish unconvincing blabber of numbers was uninformed, but genuine, or do you think it was scum manipulation? I believe in the latter, what's your take on it?

[Snarky]

Sorry, kaboooom, you had the right numbers, but I needed to make sure everyone understood them so that no one decides to hammer the no lynch.

[Snarky]

Here's something even more convincing for not No Lynching: We no lynch, cult doesn't recruit, we lost our vengekill and we've got 20% chance of winning D2, with no interactions to analyze.

[Snarky]

CONFIRM VOTE HIGHSHROOMISH!!!!!!!!!!

He had that scenario in his list of stats and still was convinced No Lynching was the way to go?!? No way scum, you just failed your gambit.

[Snarky]

Hmm, just thought about it. We should not lynch HighShroomish, but vengekill him.

UNVOTE: , so that no one hammers

[kabooooom]

Chances to get scum. (considering worst case scenario)
1 case: no lynch

a) if cult doesn't chooses to recruit:
day 2- 1/5=20% + or - skills
day 3- 1/4= 25%
day 4- 1/3= 33%

b) if cult chooses to recruit:
day 2- 2/5= 40%

2 case: we lynch
day 1- 1/5= 20%
night 1- 2/4= 50%!!

so i think it is obvious. Stats tell everything. The very idea and thought of supporting that idea is scummy!

Nice try. You don't factor in the vengekilling. Here are the odds with vengekilling.
Case 1- No Lynch(Cult Recruits)

wrong! because if no lynch on day 1 and cult recruits on night 1, then its 2(scum)/5(players)=40%(chance to lynch a scum and if we dont lynch we lose). so here we only have one shot at lynching and if we fail in that, we lose because then there will be 2(scum)vs2(town).

D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 2/5- 40% Chance
Case 2- No Lynch(Cult Doesn't Recruit)

wrong! if there is a no lynch and scum doesnt recruit then on day 1, it will be 1(scum)/5(players)=20%(chance to lynch scum. if we mis lynch then it will be day 2). on day 2, it will be 1(scum)/4(players)=25%(chance to lynch scum, and if we mislynch it iwll be day 3) on day 3, it will be, 1(scum)/3(players)=33.33%(chance to get a scum, and all this calculation is only valid if scum doesnt recruit.)

D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 1/5- 20% Chance
Case 3- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/2- LOSE
Case 4- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Doesn't Recruit(Which would be stupid))
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 1/3- 33.3%
Case 5- We Lynch Town+Vengekill SCUM
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 0/4- WIN
Case 6- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Recruits)

wrong! if we lynch town on d1 and there is no vengekill plus cult recruits, then we will lose. as there will be a 2(scum)vs 2(town) situation.

D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/4- 50%

and 6v1 and 6v2 doesnt make any sense at all!!

-6v1- Lynch Town
-D3- 2/3- 66%
-6v2- Lynch Scum
-D3- 1/4- 25%
Case 7- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Doesn't Recruit)
D1- Same as all the others
D2- 1/4- 25%

I didn't even go all in depth. Your cases and odds were a bit lacking, kabooooom. You couldn't have done a worse case scenario if you haven't gone in depth on all the odds, which you obviously have not.
And Snarky, those odds assume random lynch and vengence targets. It doesn't account for player ability and knowledge.

my contradictions with your calculations are in bold!

and when i said worst case scenario i meant if we dont lynch cult on day 1 itself! that should was pretty obvious.

have you even read my post HS??!! it doesnt seems you have!
infact, it doesnt seems you have read your own post!!
it seems you have just copy pasted that stuff from somewhere and posted it. do you even know what my point was??!!

and lets just directly get to the point, without assuming that scum would do stupid things! its a 'lynch' argument vs. a 'no lynch' argument.

lets talk no lynch first.

if we

no lynch

on day 1.

case-1 (scum doesnt recruit on night 1)

d1- 5 players alive and we no lynch!

n1- if scum doesnt recruits.

d2- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of getting scum. which is less. and if we lynch the scum we won, but if we misslynch, then its night 2.

n2- scum obv. recruits.

d3- now that the scum has recruited, its 2(scums)/4(players). as number of scum is equal to number of towns, scum wins.

case-2 (scum recruits on night 1)

d1-we no lynch.

n1- cult recruits.

d2- as cult has recruited, its 2(scums)/5(players)= 40% chance to recruit a scum. if we lynch town we lose. if we lynch scum we move to night 2.

n2- no actions happen

d3- as we lynched 1 scum on d2. its 1(scum)/4(players)= 25% chance to lynching scum. if we lynch scum, we win. if we lynch town, we proceed to n3.

n3- no actions.

d4- as we lynched a town on d3, its 1(scum)/3(players)= 33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch town, we lose. if we lynch scum we win.


now lets consider If we

lynch

on day 1.

case-1 (scum recruits on n1)

d1- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of lynching a scum.if we lynch scum, we win. if we lynch town we proceed to n1.

n1- scum recruits, so its 2(scum)/4(town)=

50%

for a successful vengekill. if we can kill cult we win(Night Action and will precede Cult Recruitment in resolution order). if recruited player is killed, we will proceed to day 2. and if a town dies from venge kill, we loose.

d2- as recruited player is venge killed, its 1(scum)/3(players)=33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch scum we win, if we lynch town, we lose.

case-2 (scum doesnt recruit on n1, but recruits in n2)

d1- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of lynching scum. if we lynch scum, we win. if we dont lynch scum and lynch town, we move to n1.

n1- its 1(scum)/4(players)=25% of venge killing a scum. if we vengekill scum, we win. if we vengekill town, we move to d2.

note: we have to vengekill on n1, as we dont know if scum decided to recruit of not. so no venge killing on n1 is not an option.

d2- its 1(scum)/3(players)= 33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch a scum we win, if we lynch a town, we lose. if we no lynch then we move to n2.

n2- cult chooses to recruit 1 player.

d3- its 2(scum)/3(players) and scum wins!


i think i cant be more clear.

[kabooooom]

So, you're telling me your odds are factoring in player ability and knowledge? How have you done that, tell me?

And what's the conclusion of all these numbers?

And it's funny how, if we No Lynch, we've got 20% chance of lynching scum D1

Here's what the real numbers are:

If we lynch, we've got: 20% chance of lynching scum D1 and winning.
80% chance of lynching a townie

From this 80% chance, we have: 25% chance of vengekilling scum and winning
25% chance of killing the recruited townie and going to day 2, assuming the Cult recruits
50% chance of losing by killing a townie

In total, we've got 40% chance of winning D1, 50%*80%=40% chance of losing D1, and 20% chance of going to D2.

If we go to D2, we have: 25% chance of lynching scum and winning, 75% of losing. Thus, we have 40% + (25%*20%)= 45% chance of winning, and 55% chance of losing.

If we No Lynch, however, we have to lynch scum D2 (40% chance, since the cult will have recruited), THEN lynch scum D3 (25%) or D4 (33,3%) =(58,3%), thus, having a chance of winning of 40%*58,3% = 23,3% chance of winning.

Yes, we will have four days instead of 1 or 2. Yes we may be able to hunt scum better by interactions when there is going to be more than one cult member, but our odds drop by more than 50%! I don't think our skill can fill that gap, especially since we'll have to deal everyday with scum manipulation.

Now, I need everyone's opinion here. Do you think HighShroomish unconvincing blabber of numbers was uninformed, but genuine, or do you think it was scum manipulation? I believe in the latter, what's your take on it?

umm..i m not reading this. and just assuming it says same thing i did, as we are thinking the same thing.

[kabooooom]

Sorry, kaboooom, you had the right numbers, but I needed to make sure everyone understood them so that no one decides to hammer the no lynch.

NP. i myself made another post so things are clear.

[kabooooom]

Here's something even more convincing for not No Lynching: We no lynch, cult doesn't recruit, we lost our vengekill and we've got 20% chance of winning D2, with no interactions to analyze.

correct.

[kabooooom]

CONFIRM VOTE HIGHSHROOMISH!!!!!!!!!!

He had that scenario in his list of stats and still was convinced No Lynching was the way to go?!? No way scum, you just failed your gambit.

Hmm, just thought about it. We should not lynch HighShroomish, but vengekill him.

UNVOTE: , so that no one hammers

why should we hammer him and not lynch?
whom do you think we should lynch?

and as for my thoughts on HS. he is scummy. his argument seemed fake, and it looks like he only posted that to show us that he is not scummy but his knowledge was wrong.

[kabooooom]

hayato and idk, i would like your thoughts too.

as for hayato, i still want your reason for thinking why you wanted a no lynch.

how come both(idk and hayato) of you are lurking?!

[kabooooom]

FoS means Finger of Suspicion. Usually, it's for when you suspect someone less than the person you're voting for, but still want to point out that suspicion. I don't know if I suspect Hayato less than HighShroomish, however. I just can't vote two person at the same time.

k. Also why is it ok for you to lose the game by a VI?!

note to everyone: if someone quick hammers, irrespective of they are town or scum, they should be venge killed. There is no point in promoting such play.

snarky, you still havent answerd my question?

[Snarky]

My reasoning for wanting to vengekill him and not lynch him was that if we lynch him now and he flips town (which I highly doubt), then he'll have to vengekill without knowledge, which could be dangerous for town. Lynching someone else, then vengekilling HS just seemed to give us more info in the case that HS is town.

However, I just realized that if we announce who the vengekill is, we lower our odds of winning, because the scenario "25% chance of killing the recruited townie and going to day 2, assuming the Cult recruits" will never happen. We're better vengekilling in the blind if HS turns out town, so that the cult have no idea who the vengekilled person will be, so that the vengeful townie and the cult leader may target the same person. So yeah, let's lynch:

VOTE: HighShroomish