Micro 352 - Chosen Mafia Game Over

[RedCoyote]

Howdy all!

I see this is a short, rather stagnant game. I don't know if I will liven up things much, but I'll certainly stick around to the end. Give me about an hour or so to read over the game and type up a good entry post.

[RedCoyote]

Mod, keep your OP updated, please. I wasted several minutes analyzing Scarab only to find out he's dead...

[RedCoyote]

And Sal.

[RedCoyote]

Wall post incoming! It's not too bad though given how short the game is.

Spoiler: Big Bad Wall

And three is better than two!

Vote: Xayzeck

This is the worst voter on the Xay wagon. Oka was OMGUS'd by Xay, and the way in which it was done does not strike me as scum-scum voting. Scarab's vote was questionable, but his 10 is town sounding. I wouldn't put it by Scarab to orchestrate something like this to get some town points, but I'm not going to get overly paranoid about that for now.

Additionally, Lia is the dreaded "3rd vote" on the wagon. Not a huge argument against her as general scumtells can often be fallible, but there is some logic to them. The logic being that the "middle voters" are the easiest to slip in and out without causing too many waves.

One final point, Scarab and Oka both check in after it is announced Xay is at L-1. They both had opportunities to unvote him (albeit small ones) if they felt the pressure was getting too much for Xay. Lia (and BBT, but that's moot) is the only player that wasn't around. In other words, of the three players on the wagon (not counting Porkens and BBT), two of them could've slowed it down and chose not to do so.

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So Porkens and possibly Scarab start off in the town pile.

Let's try this:

Vote: Oka

I don't like how this is so barren. I mean, this is completely devoid of any sort of real analysis. I appreciate the reads, but I sense a lack of any genuine reaction.

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Well that's the problem with your super fast quick hammer. There are only 2 people in this game with more information than town right now, you and/or mafia. That's why when you quickhammer like that, you need to make the first move. If the flip was town you need to be ready to defend yourself from a quick lynch, and if the flip was scum you need to asses that you are most likely conftown.

From what I got, Scarab here just seems too fluffy and fake. Got any brighter ideas, go ahead. I would love to hear from idk about this.

I absolutely love this post. This post stands in stark contrast to Lia's 37, for example. Sal's on the money here with the first paragraph. Whether Porkens likes it or not, he's the de facto leader in this game at this moment.

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With that theory I am going to believe that whoever didn't vote Xay, has a POSSIBILITY of being scum. Which leaves Idk, Niccage, and Salamence20. Your thoughts?

It's certainly possible, but none of those players checked in during the wagon. Sal and Nic didn't even post at all. That kind of a lame argument, Oka.

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No information was leaked. The game must go on!

Oh, ho. Porkens is playing something crazy with this game.

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This is fucking dumb gambit

It's kind of silly, yeah. I think it could lead to some false positives, because I would imagine 90%+ of players on MS would want a fair game, first and foremost. Further, while Oka seems a bit flustered, it's really null because I could see him making those posts as town.

All in all, not really necessary. I wouldn't advise him to do something like that again just because I'd imagine there would be mods out there that wouldn't be as laid back as Melmond or myself and go off on Porkens for something like that.

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He knew what happened as he posted right after the hammer so this is fake. His posts on this page don't have the ring of sincerity either.

He needs more votes.

This is your first decent post of the game, but I disagree with you because I think "Wth happened" is more a rhetorical question. I'm debating as to whether or not you would've realized that yourself. I think you should've.

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I guess, I dunno if scum would necessarily keep quiet since they would think the game was over.

:/

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Lia asks Scarab a question in 85 about Oka. Scarab responds in 93, but Lia doesn't acknowledge him in 94. That strikes me as odd. Why would she drop her argument like that? Especially if she has a townread on Scarab.

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Having looked around a bit I'm now ok with this lynch and as it's been more than a day since he was put at L-1 I see no reason not to go ahead.

There are three major things wrong with this hammer. First off, Lia has a proported townread on Scarab as per 37. Second, this hammer was too quick. There was no reason to rush the game along this fast especially given how quick D1 was. Third, this reads extremely safe. This is written as though she expects Scarab to flip town. "I'm now ok with this lynch and it's more than a day... so I am justified in doing this and you can't hold it against me if it's wrong".

Also, why follow idk of all people? Why not force Scarab to respond to the allegations? How did Scarab go from being in your top two townreads to you hammering him over the course of 3 pages? Where's the progression?

It could give us a clue to your alignment. I see you've finally replied to that now.

You honestly think Porkens could be scum? :IGMEOU:

So why didn't you wait to give us a chance to see who his partner was? Didn't you want to risk it?

lolwut

So he's scummy for catching scum too quickly, is that what you're implying?

If he thought Xay was being too obviously scummy, he could well have thought it better to just cut his losses and get rid of a liability.

This is completely illogical, Lia. I have a very hard time believing that you's honestly entertain something like this. I have to think you are scum that knows Porkens is a Chosen Townie and is trying to keep the possibility of lynching him alive with whatever sort of off-the-wall idea you can come up with.

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She's so bold though, I would think new scum who's partner just got shit on would be more timid.

This is a good point and it makes me think you are town. I sorely need more activity from you though because I'm really lacking in analyzing you. Where is your vote?

I actually think you're scum

...but then you say crap like this and I'm thrown off again. Maybe I'm overthinking you, because I do like your last attack against Lia there.

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Porkens plays seem pretty antitown, or insane plays. He is leaning scum to me, but I feel uncomfortable with DAY1 plays.

You're taking this game personally, Oka. Please try and think rationally and don't let what Porkens has done get under your skin seeing as how you were the main "victim" of his gambit.

I feel Lia is town based on gut feeling.

3. Lia seems null to me

Oka, you're contradicting yourself and it's making it hard for me to take you seriously at all. Please take a step back and put a bit more thought into the things you say before you post. I'm not trying to be mean with you, please do not take this personally, but you're too scattered here. Take the time to think things through logically.

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I'd be happy to lynch IDK. Let's do something though, this game is getting super boring.

I can sympathize with your frustrations, Porkens, but let's try and focus. The first part of the game went quickly, there's no reason to rush this part. You and I are both solidly town. I'm coming around on Nic being solidly town as well. If that's the case then we have the game won. I just need to get you two on board with me.

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Yeah, well I don't vote for my town reads so...

Except for Scarab.

I saw it as a rhetorical question expressing surprise which looked fake because he had been around after the hammer.

I don't understand. You saw it as a rhetorical question? This argument doesn't hold, then. A rhetorical question implies he was making a point, not asking a question.

If you don't want to read all of that above, then read my handy summation.

tl;dr = Porkens is confirmed town, obviously. There are only two people that are seriously pushing Porkens as scum, Lia and Oka. One of them is scum, and I think it's most likely Lia.

1) Lia's vote on Xay is the worst of all of the living players.
2) Lia is the 3rd vote on the Xay wagon, generally the worst place to be on a wagon.
3) Oka checked in after Xay was put at L-1 and didn't unvote him. Lia did not check in at all, meaning she didn't have a chance to stop this wagon (whereas Oka did).
4) Lia's 37 is completely missing any solid analysis. No idea why she votes Oka. Also note she calls Porkens and Scarab town here (this comes back later). Compare this to Sal's 41, which is a much, much better post.
5) Lia's 60 criticizes Oka for what she now acknowledges was a rhetorical question. If it was a rhetorical question, then this post makes absolutely no sense.
6) Lia's 85 asks Scarab about Oka, but she ignores his response in 93 and never addresses him again despite hammering him shortly thereafter.
7) Lia hammered Scarab despite having an earlier townread on him and not explaining why this changed.
8) Lia quickhammered and didn't give enough time for players to debate the Scarab wagon at all.
9) Scarab was not allowed a chance to defend himself, nor did Lia threaten to hammer him if he didn't oblige her requests as is pretty standard for town to do.
10) Lia's 104 reads extremely safe. Note in particular how much she emphasizes that she has "given Scarab enough time" as though she knows she'll be challenged about this after Scarab flips town.
11) Lia's 121 and beyond imply that she thinks Porkens could be scum.
12) In the same post, she contends that Porkens is scummy for catching scum too quickly. This bizarre argument leads me to believe that she knows Porkens is a Chosen Townie.
13) Lia claims to not vote town reads in 144 despite the fact that she hammered one.

[RedCoyote]

I'm going to hold off on voting for a day or two despite my confidence. I need to hear a bit more from Oka and Nic.

Oka, if you think it's a serious possibility that Porkens is scum, I need you to please engage me a bit and elaborate on that beyond calling him antitown. I want to argue with you on this in a constructive manner in order to hopefully convince you you are going to wrong direction in suspecting him. I think you feel a bit slighted by Porkens and that may be clouding your judgment a bit. In short, I want to get some more out of you.

Nic, we apparently have a lot we agree upon. How confident are you that Porkens is town? What do you think about the Xay wagon in general? Do you agree with my point that Lia hammered Scarab in a strange and scummy manner. If so, do you want to add anything to that? If not, why am I wrong?

[RedCoyote]

Don't everybody speak all at once now.

[RedCoyote]

Hi RedCoyote!

Howdy, Lia! I wish I could bring you more cheery news, haha. I appreciate you defending yourself sensibly, although I hope you understand it's going to be a tough sell to get me to move from where I am.

This is one of the things that makes me hesitate about Oka, but it was possible that he didn't expect anyone to hammer and didn't want to be the first to unvote.

Certainly. It's a small point, but worth noting. It's also possible that Nic wasn't even around when the Xay wagon happened to assist his partner either.

As I said in 144: "The vote was based on a very weak scum tell; better than nothing but not by much." I thought his RVS vote could be distancing.

It's funny you bring up your post 144, because that's the post where you clarify to Porkens that Scarab was a townread of yours (hence you hammering him shortly thereafter is contradictory and scummy). You can characterize it as weak or very weak, that's besides the point. The point is you vote someone and explain why it is you are making that move, even if you aren't extremely confident in it yet. No one reasonable expects you to be super confident on page two. I pointed to Sal's 41 as a good contrasting post. That's post was made at around the same time, but it's clear Sal is approaching the game from a town mindset, in contrast to your post.

Why not?

Because you reference that Oka knew that the hammer had taken place. Ergo, you are assuming that Oka is referring to the hammer. You are implying that Oka was saying "Wth happened [to cause us to be in D2 now]?", and then making the allegation that Oka is scummy because he should know that there was a hammer given the fact that he checked in after it happened. In other words, that he's genuinely trying to ask players what had happened. If you now say that you realized it was a rhetorical question, then that doesn't sync with what you said in 60, "He knew what happened as he posted right after the hammer". If it was a rhetorical question, then the hammer has no place in your argument whatsoever, because he's not asking about the hammer, he's making a statement.

Scarab's reply didn't add anything either way to my read of Oka, which had been my reason for asking, but seemed a bit evasive

If you actually thought this at the time, you would've said something, much like you said something when Oka's posts seemed off to you.

Scarab has the chance to make a defence when he posted 99, 100 and 103 but didn't.

My point is that you didn't threaten to hammer him if he didn't talk to you. You didn't let him know that you personally were starting to change your read on him. For all he knew, he could count on you as having a townread on him at the time. Given that the deadline wasn't looming and the town had no reason to rush into another lynch after just hitting scum in the first day, he had no reason to worry that he would be hammered immediately, certainly not by someone that purported to have a townread on him.

Nope. I did not have a town read on Scarab when I hammered.

Hah, well, changing your read from town to scum and hammering in the same post doesn't really do much for me, hon.

Do you think Scarab's opinion of idk's case was correct?
What do you think of Porkens' vote on Scarab?
What do you think of Porkens' failure to back up his claims?

I'm bias. I know both slots are town. I didn't bother reading idk's case and have no intention to as it's redundant at this point. After all, it was supposedly good enough to convince you.
I think Porkens is confirmed town due to the Xay wagon. Additionally, the only logical reason Porkens has been left alive is due to the fact he's a Chosen Townie and cannot be NKed. It stands to reason that only players that are suspecting him would be scummy. His Scarab vote was decent enough. I had Scarab leaning scum until his flip myself. I had a bit more evidence of this in my wall post, but I trimmed it out upon learning he was dead.
I don't understand what you mean by claims.

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Porkens is in the middle though, which makes me most suspicious of him.

My reasoning.

What do you mean, "he's in the middle"? The middle of what? I assume this means you have a null read on him, which by all accounts should actually be worse than Lia's POV. Lia is completely approaching this game the wrong way in regards to Porkens, but I can understand why she's doing so because it makes sense from a scum perspective. To imply that you do not have a read on Porkens is silly though, Oka. He's the last person you should have trouble formulating a read on. Oka, can you address the specific things I asked of you in 156? That was a summary of what I was concerned about you in my wall post because I figured you wouldn't take the time to read that.

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We can lynch Oka, too. Oh god the urge to give up on this game is sooooo strong Red.

Well, Porkens, you're good, my man. Really I'm just holding off a bit because I want to interact with Nic/Oka a bit more. I know you're town, and I don't really need to hear more from you personally.

[RedCoyote]

Nic's 165 is good stuff. I especially like how he caught Lia in yet another contradiction. I feel good about him.

Lia, God love her, is fighting to the last second, but there's no way I am seeing her as town here. She may be able to sell me a bit better if she acknowledged how far out some of her arguments are (specifically about Porkens being potential scum), but even then I think I'd still be where I am right now.

VOTE: Lia

[RedCoyote]

Good job, Porkens/Nic. I enjoyed replacing into this game and it was a joy to play with y'all. The Mod did pretty good, I would just say keep the OP updated at all times during the game because some players (like me, lol) refer to it for the most up-to-date information about the game at a glance.

[RedCoyote]

And gg all.