Micro 352 - Chosen Mafia Game Over

RedCoyote · Post Post #150 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:24 am

Mod, keep your OP updated, please. I wasted several minutes analyzing Scarab only to find out he's dead...

RedCoyote · Post Post #151 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:25 am

And Sal.

NicCage · Post Post #152 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:32 am

Sorry, free time has been at a premium. I'll be more active shortly. Also looking forward to hearing from RedCoyote

Porkens · Post Post #153 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:54 am

IDK should be banned from joining new games.

on the other hand OMGOMGOMG REd glad you are here.

Melmond · Post Post #154 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 6:12 am

In post 150, RedCoyote wrote:Mod, keep your OP updated, please. I wasted several minutes analyzing Scarab only to find out he's dead...

Fixed, sorry about that.
____________________________________

Vote Count 3.1
Lia - 1 (Porkens)

Not Voting: (OkaPoka, NicCage, RedCoyote, Lia)

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline is July 16th at 2pm EST.

RedCoyote · Post Post #155 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 6:15 am

Wall post incoming! It's not too bad though given how short the game is.

Spoiler: Big Bad Wall

If you don't want to read all of that above, then read my handy summation.

tl;dr = Porkens is confirmed town, obviously. There are only two people that are seriously pushing Porkens as scum, Lia and Oka. One of them is scum, and I think it's most likely Lia.

1) Lia's vote on Xay is the worst of all of the living players.
2) Lia is the 3rd vote on the Xay wagon, generally the worst place to be on a wagon.
3) Oka checked in after Xay was put at L-1 and didn't unvote him. Lia did not check in at all, meaning she didn't have a chance to stop this wagon (whereas Oka did).
4) Lia's 37 is completely missing any solid analysis. No idea why she votes Oka. Also note she calls Porkens and Scarab town here (this comes back later). Compare this to Sal's 41, which is a much, much better post.
5) Lia's 60 criticizes Oka for what she now acknowledges was a rhetorical question. If it was a rhetorical question, then this post makes absolutely no sense.
6) Lia's 85 asks Scarab about Oka, but she ignores his response in 93 and never addresses him again despite hammering him shortly thereafter.
7) Lia hammered Scarab despite having an earlier townread on him and not explaining why this changed.
8) Lia quickhammered and didn't give enough time for players to debate the Scarab wagon at all.
9) Scarab was not allowed a chance to defend himself, nor did Lia threaten to hammer him if he didn't oblige her requests as is pretty standard for town to do.
10) Lia's 104 reads extremely safe. Note in particular how much she emphasizes that she has "given Scarab enough time" as though she knows she'll be challenged about this after Scarab flips town.
11) Lia's 121 and beyond imply that she thinks Porkens could be scum.
12) In the same post, she contends that Porkens is scummy for catching scum too quickly. This bizarre argument leads me to believe that she knows Porkens is a Chosen Townie.
13) Lia claims to not vote town reads in 144 despite the fact that she hammered one.

RedCoyote · Post Post #156 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 6:24 am

I'm going to hold off on voting for a day or two despite my confidence. I need to hear a bit more from Oka and Nic.

Oka, if you think it's a serious possibility that Porkens is scum, I need you to please engage me a bit and elaborate on that beyond calling him antitown. I want to argue with you on this in a constructive manner in order to hopefully convince you you are going to wrong direction in suspecting him. I think you feel a bit slighted by Porkens and that may be clouding your judgment a bit. In short, I want to get some more out of you.

Nic, we apparently have a lot we agree upon. How confident are you that Porkens is town? What do you think about the Xay wagon in general? Do you agree with my point that Lia hammered Scarab in a strange and scummy manner. If so, do you want to add anything to that? If not, why am I wrong?

RedCoyote · Post Post #157 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:20 pm

Don't everybody speak all at once now.

Porkens · Post Post #158 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:58 pm

I can't vote her any harder.

Lia · Post Post #159 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 4:32 pm

Hi RedCoyote!

In post 146, OkaPoka wrote:The posts before 40 and 41 actually had actions and accusations to go along with each other. Then Salamence wants a mini wagon on Scarab, and Scarab randomly points that NicCage is scum. I was confused at the plays town was making and why no action went along with it.

So Scarab was saying that Nic might be scum, while agreeing with him that Porkens should explain his action, and Salamence was explaining his earlier unsupported vote. I really don't see what's so confusing about these, or how they differ from the earlier posts.

In post 155, RedCoyote wrote:3) Oka checked in after Xay was put at L-1 and didn't unvote him. Lia did not check in at all, meaning she didn't have a chance to stop this wagon (whereas Oka did).

This is one of the things that makes me hesitate about Oka, but it was possible that he didn't expect anyone to hammer and didn't want to be the first to unvote.

In post 155, RedCoyote wrote:4) Lia's 37 is completely missing any solid analysis. No idea why she votes Oka.

There was very little to go on at the time. As I said in 144: "The vote was based on a very weak scum tell; better than nothing but not by much." I thought his RVS vote could be distancing.

In post 155, RedCoyote wrote:5) Lia's 60 criticizes Oka for what she now acknowledges was a rhetorical question. If it was a rhetorical question, then this post makes absolutely no sense.

Why not? I thought it was a fake rhetorical question, said for effect, and his attempts to persuade me it wasn't haven't convinced me.

In post 155, RedCoyote wrote:6) Lia's 85 asks Scarab about Oka, but she ignores his response in 93 and never addresses him again despite hammering him shortly thereafter.

Scarab's reply didn't add anything either way to my read of Oka, which had been my reason for asking, but seemed a bit evasive, which is why I started to take a closer look at him.

In post 155, RedCoyote wrote:7) Lia hammered Scarab despite having an earlier townread on him and not explaining why this changed.

The explanation was in post 104, where I voted him. Unfortunately I can't expand on that yet but it was enough to turn my town read into a scum read.

In post 155, RedCoyote wrote:8) Lia quickhammered and didn't give enough time for players to debate the Scarab wagon at all.
9) Scarab was not allowed a chance to defend himself, nor did Lia threaten to hammer him if he didn't oblige her requests as is pretty standard for town to do.

I've already explained why I hammered when I did. Scarab has the chance to make a defence when he posted 99, 100 and 103 but didn't.

In post 155, RedCoyote wrote:13) Lia claims to not vote town reads in 144 despite the fact that she hammered one.

Nope. I did not have a town read on Scarab when I hammered.

Do you think Scarab's opinion of idk's case was correct?
What do you think of Porkens' vote on Scarab?
What do you think of Porkens' failure to back up his claims?

OkaPoka · Post Post #160 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:20 pm

I think Lia is town.

I think Coyote is town.

I think NicCage is town.

Porkens is in the middle though, which makes me most suspicious of him.

My reasoning.

Porkens · Post Post #161 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:00 pm

My failure to back up what claims?

Porkens · Post Post #162 (ISO) » Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:01 pm

We can lynch Oka, too. Oh god the urge to give up on this game is sooooo strong Red.

RedCoyote · Post Post #163 (ISO) » Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:50 am

Lia 159 wrote:Hi RedCoyote!

Howdy, Lia! I wish I could bring you more cheery news, haha. I appreciate you defending yourself sensibly, although I hope you understand it's going to be a tough sell to get me to move from where I am.

Lia 159 wrote:This is one of the things that makes me hesitate about Oka, but it was possible that he didn't expect anyone to hammer and didn't want to be the first to unvote.

Certainly. It's a small point, but worth noting. It's also possible that Nic wasn't even around when the Xay wagon happened to assist his partner either.

Lia 159 wrote:As I said in 144: "The vote was based on a very weak scum tell; better than nothing but not by much." I thought his RVS vote could be distancing.

It's funny you bring up your post 144, because that's the post where you clarify to Porkens that Scarab was a townread of yours (hence you hammering him shortly thereafter is contradictory and scummy). You can characterize it as weak or very weak, that's besides the point. The point is you vote someone and explain why it is you are making that move, even if you aren't extremely confident in it yet. No one reasonable expects you to be super confident on page two. I pointed to Sal's 41 as a good contrasting post. That's post was made at around the same time, but it's clear Sal is approaching the game from a town mindset, in contrast to your post.

Lia 159 wrote:Why not?

Because you reference that Oka knew that the hammer had taken place. Ergo, you are assuming that Oka is referring to the hammer. You are implying that Oka was saying "Wth happened [to cause us to be in D2 now]?", and then making the allegation that Oka is scummy because he should know that there was a hammer given the fact that he checked in after it happened. In other words, that he's genuinely trying to ask players what had happened. If you now say that you realized it was a rhetorical question, then that doesn't sync with what you said in 60, "He knew what happened as he posted right after the hammer". If it was a rhetorical question, then the hammer has no place in your argument whatsoever, because he's not asking about the hammer, he's making a statement.

Lia 159 wrote:Scarab's reply didn't add anything either way to my read of Oka, which had been my reason for asking, but seemed a bit evasive

If you actually thought this at the time, you would've said something, much like you said something when Oka's posts seemed off to you.

Lia 159 wrote:Scarab has the chance to make a defence when he posted 99, 100 and 103 but didn't.

My point is that you didn't threaten to hammer him if he didn't talk to you. You didn't let him know that you personally were starting to change your read on him. For all he knew, he could count on you as having a townread on him at the time. Given that the deadline wasn't looming and the town had no reason to rush into another lynch after just hitting scum in the first day, he had no reason to worry that he would be hammered immediately, certainly not by someone that purported to have a townread on him.

Lia 159 wrote:Nope. I did not have a town read on Scarab when I hammered.

Hah, well, changing your read from town to scum and hammering in the same post doesn't really do much for me, hon.

Lia 159 wrote:Do you think Scarab's opinion of idk's case was correct?
What do you think of Porkens' vote on Scarab?
What do you think of Porkens' failure to back up his claims?

I'm bias. I know both slots are town. I didn't bother reading idk's case and have no intention to as it's redundant at this point. After all, it was supposedly good enough to convince you.
I think Porkens is confirmed town due to the Xay wagon. Additionally, the only logical reason Porkens has been left alive is due to the fact he's a Chosen Townie and cannot be NKed. It stands to reason that only players that are suspecting him would be scummy. His Scarab vote was decent enough. I had Scarab leaning scum until his flip myself. I had a bit more evidence of this in my wall post, but I trimmed it out upon learning he was dead.
I don't understand what you mean by claims.

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Oka 160 wrote:Porkens is in the middle though, which makes me most suspicious of him.

My reasoning.

What do you mean, "he's in the middle"? The middle of what? I assume this means you have a null read on him, which by all accounts should actually be worse than Lia's POV. Lia is completely approaching this game the wrong way in regards to Porkens, but I can understand why she's doing so because it makes sense from a scum perspective. To imply that you do not have a read on Porkens is silly though, Oka. He's the last person you should have trouble formulating a read on. Oka, can you address the specific things I asked of you in 156? That was a summary of what I was concerned about you in my wall post because I figured you wouldn't take the time to read that.

---

Porkens 162 wrote:We can lynch Oka, too. Oh god the urge to give up on this game is sooooo strong Red.

Well, Porkens, you're good, my man. Really I'm just holding off a bit because I want to interact with Nic/Oka a bit more. I know you're town, and I don't really need to hear more from you personally.

Porkens · Post Post #164 (ISO) » Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:05 am

In post 163, RedCoyote wrote:the only logical reason Porkens has been left alive is due to the fact he's a Chosen Townie and cannot be NKed. It stands to reason that only players that are suspecting him would be scummy.

This reads like maybe you think the scum knows who the Chosen Townies are; I don't think they do. They only know one player who is NOT chosen.

Well, Porkens, you're good, my man. Really I'm just holding off a bit because I want to interact with Nic/Oka a bit more. I know you're town, and I don't really need to hear more from you personally.

Is this a nice way to say "shut up?"

NicCage · Post Post #165 (ISO) » Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:16 pm

In post 156, RedCoyote wrote:Nic, we apparently have a lot we agree upon. How confident are you that Porkens is town? What do you think about the Xay wagon in general? Do you agree with my point that Lia hammered Scarab in a strange and scummy manner. If so, do you want to add anything to that? If not, why am I wrong?

Porkens is almost certainly town, I think his reasoning for hammering Xay is very believable, and it's super unlikely that anyone would hammer their partner like that.

The Xay wagon doesn't tell me much really. I like what you said about Oka's idea that scum is probably off the wagon. At the time it made me more suspicious of Oka, I thought that it was more likely that the other scum had jumped in on the wagon just to be a part of the RVSing almost everyone else was doing. But that was just a small hunch.

I definitely agree that Lia's hammer was strange and scummy. It doesn't make sense to hammer that quickly without first questioning Scarab, especially considering he was a townread, however weak. I don't think idk's case was that strong, or strong at all. If you're looking for a potential counterargument I would say that Lia is inexperienced and in this environment where quicklynching is accepted she thought it would be okay to lynch scarab since porkens was on the wagon and was advocating that we lynch somebody. However, that could contribute to scum-Lia's decision aswell, which is what I think is the case.
I can't add anything to this specific instance, but Lia's:

In post 94, Lia wrote:Are you saying that he would deliberately get his partner lynched before the game had barely begun? I know bussing is a thing but that doesn't make sense.

Directly contradicts these posts:

In post 121, Lia wrote:
In post 120, Porkens wrote:I hammered xyl or whatever his name was partly because his response to being at L-1 felt scummy, especially the random.org comment. He was distancing himself for a stance as hard as possible.

So why didn't you wait to give us a chance to see who his partner was? Didn't you want to risk it?

In post 123, NicCage wrote:Don't you think it's unlikely that scum would hammer their own partner?

Not really if it's to their advantage. Unlikely in the way it was done here, yes, but wouldn't that be a good reason for doing it? If he thought Xay was being too obviously scummy, he could well have thought it better to just cut his losses and get rid of a liability.[/quote]

So Lia, what changed your mind between these posts?

Also, Red, you asked where my vote is, and it isn't anywhere because I didn't want to see anyone get lynched until I had a handle on everyone's positions.

NicCage · Post Post #166 (ISO) » Wed Jul 09, 2014 4:33 pm

Porkens, in the setup page it says the mafia know who's chosen, but during pre-game they get to veto one player from being chosen.

Porkens · Post Post #167 (ISO) » Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:31 pm

Oh shit ok then yeah I'm probably chosen

Porkens · Post Post #168 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:05 am

Vote: Lia

Lia · Post Post #169 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:35 pm

In post 161, Porkens wrote:My failure to back up what claims?

Mainly the one I've been repeatedly asking you to back up. I'll take the fact that you had no reply to the last para of my 144 as an answer in itself to that, but I still want an explanation of your comment in 71, plus your reasons for not explaining it earlier when asked to do so.

In post 163, RedCoyote wrote:It's funny you bring up your post 144, because that's the post where you clarify to Porkens that Scarab was a townread of yours (hence you hammering him shortly thereafter is contradictory and scummy).

How is it contradictory and scummy to change my mind about a player after taking a closer look at him?

In post 163, RedCoyote wrote:You can characterize it as weak or very weak, that's besides the point. The point is you vote someone and explain why it is you are making that move, even if you aren't extremely confident in it yet. No one reasonable expects you to be super confident on page two. I pointed to Sal's 41 as a good contrasting post. That's post was made at around the same time, but it's clear Sal is approaching the game from a town mindset, in contrast to your post.

You've been around long enough to know that sometimes a vote with little or no explanation can be a good scumhunting tool. Oka was my best guess at the time and so I went with that.

In post 163, RedCoyote wrote:Because you reference that Oka knew that the hammer had taken place. Ergo, you are assuming that Oka is referring to the hammer. You are implying that Oka was saying "Wth happened [to cause us to be in D2 now]?", and then making the allegation that Oka is scummy because he should know that there was a hammer given the fact that he checked in after it happened. In other words, that he's genuinely trying to ask players what had happened. If you now say that you realized it was a rhetorical question, then that doesn't sync with what you said in 60, "He knew what happened as he posted right after the hammer". If it was a rhetorical question, then the hammer has no place in your argument whatsoever, because he's not asking about the hammer, he's making a statement.

No; I never thought he was genuinely trying to ask players what had happened. As I said in 60, I thought it was fake. An exclamation/rhetorical question to disassociate himself from what had happened. I've already explained this in 144.

In post 163, RedCoyote wrote:If you actually thought this at the time, you would've said something, much like you said something when Oka's posts seemed off to you.

I didn't say anything because I was still getting my thoughts together about Scarab and doing a bit of reading.

In post 163, RedCoyote wrote:I'm bias. I know both slots are town. I didn't bother reading idk's case and have no intention to as it's redundant at this point. After all, it was supposedly good enough to convince you.
I think Porkens is confirmed town due to the Xay wagon. Additionally, the only logical reason Porkens has been left alive is due to the fact he's a Chosen Townie and cannot be NKed. It stands to reason that only players that are suspecting him would be scummy. His Scarab vote was decent enough. I had Scarab leaning scum until his flip myself. I had a bit more evidence of this in my wall post, but I trimmed it out upon learning he was dead.
I don't understand what you mean by claims.

Idk's case wasn't the only thing that made me change my mind about Scarab, but I've said all I'm going to on that matter.
How was Porkens' vote decent enough, in view of what he said about it?
Re: Porkens claims about me, see the first para of this post.

@ Nic:

I didn't change my mind between those posts; just my paranoia after being misled by a seemingly unnecessary Day 1 bus in my last game. In 121 I was trying to get a reaction out of Porkens.

I've got a slight town read from Porkens' 164.

RedCoyote has twice expressed concerned about Porkens being Chosen. This isn't something that town needs to worry about as it makes no difference to us, but it would effect scum as they need to get at least one of them lynched. I'm wondering if RC thinks Porkens is unlynchable and that is why he is trying to push my lynch using Porkens as a lever.

Porkens · Post Post #170 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2014 7:36 pm

I literally can't figure out what you are talking about. Your first three or four posts were fluff, as I said. Maybe you think you asked a salient question, but I'm not seeing it. At best though you are still accusing me of making shit up and avoiding some "point" which can't possibly matter at all.

OkaPoka · Post Post #171 (ISO) » Fri Jul 11, 2014 4:14 am

Prod Dodge/

I actually agree with Lia...

RedCoyote · Post Post #172 (ISO) » Fri Jul 11, 2014 4:20 am

Nic's 165 is good stuff. I especially like how he caught Lia in yet another contradiction. I feel good about him.

Lia, God love her, is fighting to the last second, but there's no way I am seeing her as town here. She may be able to sell me a bit better if she acknowledged how far out some of her arguments are (specifically about Porkens being potential scum), but even then I think I'd still be where I am right now.

VOTE: Lia

Lia · Post Post #173 (ISO) » Fri Jul 11, 2014 6:46 am

I've already pointed out that that wasn't a contradiction but I can see why you're happy to jump on it. In case you didn't notice, the first of those three quotes didn't relate to either Porkens or his hammer.

I note that you didn't mention that your vote put me at L-1.

One of the reasons I haven't voted yet toDay was that my gut wasn't agreeing with my head. Now it is. At first I thought you might have just misread some of my posts so I was prepared to give you the benefit of the doubt. Now it's looking more like manipulation, both through the way you have presented your arguements against me and through the patronising tone of some of your posts.

Vote: RedCoyote

@ Porkens:

You seem to have a very strange definition of fluff if it includes giving reads, voting, pointing out concerns and asking for clarification, which is what I was doing in those posts. As for the other point I raised, that was due to your accusation that I was either playing dumb or hoping you were actually dumb which made me think you were trying to make me look bad, but that could have been due to your not understanding what I meant by the word "comment".

NicCage · Post Post #174 (ISO) » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:53 am

Intent to hammer