micro 372: game over

[Marquis]

I didn't know this started and have been

V/LA since yesterday to the 11th

. Only extremely limited phoneposting for things like this, bye.

[Marquis]

After I'm done checking in I'll make this game my priority for catching up.

[Marquis]

Page 1 of my nobody-actually-clicks-these-links-to-follow-along-but-I-am-doing-this-so-I-can-keep-track-as-I-catch-up catch up

2 I don't like it but it could have been prepared prior to alignment/role considering no confirmation stage. That and maybe I'm just annoyed.

4 don't like

6 like

7 not sure how to take this. typically MS.net doesn't like lynching miller claims outright but I feel like scum likes to try and shift that around to their advantage. idk. needless to say I don't think policy lynching is helpful at all in a micro so I'm just treating AP like a named townie in a closed flavorless setup. in other words useless

8 I think this is town.

girls

townies just want to have fun after all

9 I like the pickup on this, exactly what I was thinking, but they're still town prob

12 vote that looks like RVS -> subpar explanation for that vote that is also subpar in that it even tries to explain itself at all -> ew

13 also not a valid response I think. but I'm also reading Flubber as town now for the meh idk

16 CALED THIS IS NOT HOW YOU ENTER THE GAME ON DAY 1 OKAY you're scum

18 generic textbook play by the book post meant to be null on alignment but its place as an entry point into the game is bad

19 ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww awkward. hm. I want to say scum but town aren't always beautiful themselves. Probably still leaning scum.

23 hm. acknowledgement that I am still thinking over this post.

24 is too safe for my liking. So far mostly null though with a bit of suspicion.

By Page 1, I am actively willing to lynch (subject to change):

caledfwitch
BroodKingEXE

By Page 1, I am not going to consider lynching (add only, no removal):

Flubbernugget
TellTaleHeart

[Marquis]

[obligatory wagon check]

yessssssssssss wagons.

VOTE: BroodKingEXE

L-1.

[Marquis]

ohhhh

UNVOTE:

I don't like the last two-thirds of that wagon though :/

[Marquis]

[img]http://31.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m59t6 ... o1_500.gif[/vote]

VOTE: caled

[Marquis]

VOTE: caled

[Marquis]

you just made a case for me-town

yayyyy

[Marquis]

I just read Page 2 and you can add kabooooom to my town-do-not-lynch list

kabooooom
Flubbernugget
TellTaleHeart
Marquis

^town

and on page 2 I'm getting the idea that caled is scum just trying to cast doubt on everything <3

[Marquis]

p.s. just because you're trying to act cute doesn't mean you're not scum who needs to eat rope

[Marquis]

MISREP

[Marquis]

Flubber reads as genuine cautious/paranoid townie to me ftr.

[Marquis]

Early Miller claims are usually true and not scum- it locks you into that claim, so as scum you can't wait to fakeclaim in an opportune situation later.

AP as scum doesn't know what form the Town PR(s) take(s). It could be a Cop. But it could also be a Tracker, or something else.

What happens if a Tracker gets a guilty on AP? He can't claim Vigilante anymore, because he already claimed Miller (this is a micro normal; Miller Vigilante is very unlikely).

Basically scum has a lot to lose from a page 1 Miller claim, while claiming Miller instantly is the right play for Town. And this post isn't saying that he's Town, but rather that while the claim is in mind I'm not inclined to policy lynch him for it, nor am I inclined to scumread him solely based on the claim at all.

[Marquis]

No. I do not want to put myself in a position where I judge posts. You start like that and one movie later you need a mask to breathe.

Thanks for saying this, that's my position too but I've never really been able to articulate it until you explained it really well.

[Marquis]

i STILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CLAIM BEING TOWN, PARTICULARLY IN A MICRO.

[Marquis]

Oops.

But yeah, I do see the GF point.

[Marquis]

The point is that if he had a GF partner, that's how as scum he could know if a Cop was likely or not.

[Marquis]

Goon + GF though in a micro is :\

[Marquis]

Holy shit, I would have never thought of this. Why the hell are you the first person to bring this up.

I thought the idea was implied. If you guys haven't been considering things like this (motivation and such) when trying to talk about the Miller claim then I'm not sure how to deal with that :/

[Marquis]

Holy shit, I would have never thought of this. Why the hell are you the first person to bring this up.

I thought the idea was implied. If you guys haven't been considering things like this (motivation and such) when trying to talk about the Miller claim then I'm not sure how to deal with that :/

Would you be willing to iso me and give a read on whether or not I seemed oblivious to this implication? Is it one you had to construct or one you knew about ahead of time?

ok ok wait



I'm reading you as town and I would really like to keep reading you as town because it's doing some good things for me.

But if you want to keep this relationship of ours on the up and up you're going to need to stop it with these kneejerk overdefensive responses.

Additionally, I'd also feel much better if you gave me all of your reads in your next post, without hemming or hawing about them. I don't want to have to search through your ISO to know where you stand and where I can help you to stand, and I don't want to feel suffocated by the excessive paranoia you're displaying- I really do think it's town, but that doesn't mean I'm enjoying it.

[Marquis]

Also now that you've posted to make me remember it, I dislike AP constantly taking the position of devil's advocate in regards to his own roleclaim. Part of me wants to call it scum overthinking the situation for someone in his position.

[Marquis]

VOTE: Xayzeck

scum.

[Marquis]

hm

i like a xayzeck lynch tho

[Marquis]

VOTE: brood

lynchers are normal right

[Marquis]

BroodKingEXE, the

werewolf

, was lynched.

Jingle, town seer, was killed night 1

"the"

hm

[Marquis]

broodking was a werewolf?? so like the anti-town faction

"the"

hm.

[Marquis]

AP, TTH, kabooom town. Marquis lean town. Flubber barely leaning.

Lynchpool today is caled, xay -> a hesitant "game solved"?

VOTE: caled

i feel like caled made 222 to try and gain towncred when if she was actually curious she prob would have pmed at night

[Marquis]

broodking was a werewolf?? so like the anti-town faction

"the"

hm.

what do you think of this "the"

[Marquis]

ok.

i really want to lynch you today.

[Marquis]

VOTE: ap

sticking this here, bbl.

[Marquis]

I think the only faction is the Werewolf one, and if you were a Werewolf the Miller claim would be a perfect way to intentionally mislead the town whether a Werewolf/Seer already flipped or not.

Basically I don't think there's a Miller, and that you're a Werewolf who tried to throw smoke around with the claim.

[Marquis]

That's cool and all, but suggesting I would investigate a claimed Miller makes no sense, and neither does the huge leap from "town" to "werewolf, and a werewolf cop at that".

[Marquis]

I don't remember ever saying you were a townread, but rather a "people should stop talking about scumreading or policy lynching him just because he claimed Miller". I initially saw town motivation in your claim, sure, but your play toward the end of the day including devil's advocacy was way off.

[Marquis]

And why only call me out on that vote now? You had plenty of chances to do so earlier if you really think I'm scum.

[Marquis]

Basically I don't think there's a Miller, and that you're a Werewolf who tried to throw smoke around with the claim.

The first part of this sentence is probably true

, the latter half makes no sense. I think you are overplaying your inside info as scum a bit much here, Marquis.

probably no miller, huh

[Marquis]

V/LA until Friday, 8/22

[Marquis]

prodded

tth wagon is bad

tth flubber kaboom town

the only vote on even a possible scum comes from me

but my taste for this has died

VOTE: xayzeck

pops in occasionally to make non-alignment indicative comment, often just an obvious statement/fact
no self-investing analysis of any sort
purposefully detached scum

night busy

[Marquis]

I don't get the TTH wagon.

caled this whole game you've just been like "why aren't you you voting for me HUH" and I don't know what to think of that. It reminds me of AP playing devil's advocate.

[Marquis]

What do you think of caled? What do you think caled thinks of you? What do you think caled thinks you think caled thinks of you?

[Marquis]

VOTE: AP

We can do this, then.

[Marquis]

Flubber, sheep me. TTH is town.

[Marquis]

you could be mafia.

or werewolf with a dead weight partner.

i have too many townreads i think.

[Marquis]

5:2:2 is ridiculous. It's 6:2:1 or 7:1:1 or 7:2.

I've been reading TTH as town since the start, but thinking about it now I haven't really taken a good look at them again since the start. It's a stale townread for my sanity.

On the other hand I'm less sure of my Flubber townread, but it's nowhere near the point where I'm willing to take another look at him.

kaboom solid townread, stays that way.

caled and xayzeck being more into the game would really help me see if either of them are town. come on guys make us both happy

Not sure what to think of the AP "realclaim". The vote stays though.

[Marquis]

that might be true

[Marquis]

I haven't liked AP's seemingly random multiple offhand "oh you're scum" kinds of comments but I will say that the interactions on this page are making me really paranoid of that team possibility.

[Marquis]

i am finding it hard to disagree with such a strong townread of mine
her reads are painfully wrong :[

[Marquis]

It's not a miller claim.

He just "realclaimed" Deputy.

[Marquis]

VOTE: xay

[Marquis]

feirei lynch is worse

VOTE: ap

[Marquis]

and the three scumreads you listed are #1 #2 and #4 on my town reads

I can compromise with you on a xay/caled lynch. Other than that if we can try to work together on rationalizing a joint TTH read I would be inclined to work with you

If that didn't make any sense I'm in a 2 hours shitty psych class I'm fucked up

[Marquis]

VOTE: xay

[Marquis]

yay for prod dodges

[Marquis]

yup

in case you haven't noticed this game is depressing

[Marquis]

demoralizing is a better word choice

[Marquis]

methinks marquis is scum for that "yay for prod dodges" post.

also i still dont buy that miller claim.

OH

Fuck I missed that.

Marquis, explain your last post.

i was overdue for a prod, so before i got one i decided to just hammer xayzeck and end what was an excruciatingly painful day
i was also hoping i'd get lucky with a scumflip either winning or making today probably easier on associative tells but nope

[Marquis]

i'm sorry feirei.
i'm currently building a big setup analysis post. please hold on.

[Marquis]

so

with the flips we've had i really really don't believe there is a deputy OR cop

VOTE: ap

time for some setupsorting

BroodKingEXE, werewolf, was lynched day 1

Jingle, town seer, was killed night 1
xayzeck, vanilla townie, was lynched day 2
caledfwitch, town odd night bodyguard was killed night 2

the following assumptions are made while attempting to disregard all unflipped claims, and all taking into account the size and normalcy of the game.

1. brood flipped werewolf ∴

   a werewolf faction exists.
   
   simple.
   
   
2. caled flipped odd night protective role + jingle flipped investigative role ∴

   no other town protective roles are likely to exist.
   
   i don't think there would be any space in the setup for another one, not to mention caled's role would theoretically be perfect for just letting the seer get off at least one investigation. this isn't really a stretch at all.
   
   
3. caled flipped odd night protective role + finally using common sense ∴

   there are 7 town and 2 scum
   
   all of the previous "oh what if it's 5:3/5:2:2/6:2:1" setup spec? throw that out the window because not only is it ridiculous to begin with, but caled's flip also removes the possibility of strong town prs to balance a larger # of scum (caled's role was practically just as strong as typical newbie setup protective balance).
   
   
4. there was one kill last night ∴

   one kill was sent in, meaning one faction left.
   
   following the 2nd point, the only scenario that makes sense.
   
   
5. jingle flipped seer + other flips etc ∴

   there are 2 werewolves.
   
   standard normal balance. i highly doubt there is 1 seer + 1 bg + 1 maf + 1 ww. if you're going to treat a role like a lone godfather, essentially a serial killer, it's not mafia. in other words i would be more inclined to think it's 1maf/1ww if jingle flipped cop.

so sorry if that was hard to follow, but the key result of me trying to work through that is this:

the setup is 7 town and 2 werewolves, with room for one more living town pr at most.

i think the most likely role list is:

Scum - Werewolf

Scum - Werewolf ?

Town - Seer
Town - Odd Night BG

Town - VT / Non-Protective Power Role ?

Town - VT

Town - VT

Town - VT

Town - VT

*** [

alive

/ dead]

previewing and looing back on this all i realize i almost completely forgot my original point: i think it's ridiculous to believe ap's "miller oh wait jk i'm a potentially useful deputy" claim for multiple reasons

• i think he is scum changing his fakeclaim so that we're more reluctant to lynch him
  
  before when he claimed miller, a potentially confusing anti-town role that as many people know actually isn't typically policy lynched on this site, people actually reacted differently than i (and probably ap too) expected them to: maybe it was just the relatively higher number of newer players in this game, but there was a strong backlash of "well why can't we just lynch him because we need to be sure". after what happened with that day 1, ap-scum deciding to play it off as a gambit claim with a real and actually useful deputy fakeclaim makes sense.
  
  
• i don't think there is room for both a cop and deputy in this game
  
  see above roles. i don't think in a game of this size, seer+oddbg+cop+cop!deputy for town is plausible at all. and seer+oddbg+cop!deputy just makes no sense at all, since even just seer+oddbg+cop is incredibly more likely.
  the near-confirmed scenario taking the one kill into account is that this game is just as normal as a newbie game with 3 or less PRs and 2 same-faction scum, but with scum being werewolves instead of mafia to throw off the town a bit.
  keep in mind that if this was 7:1:1, myko would have to account for two potential kills each night. 2 n1 kills in a micro normal is just... no. playercount in a micro normal especially with caled's non-strong protective role would never be allowed to drop that quickly.
  
  
• now knowing that the most likely scenario is 2 werewolves, his initial miller claim looks a lot like throwing around smoke prior to the flip.
  
  i mean, there
  was
  a lot of talk generated later on about setup spec and it got the town to start giving really insane distribution guesses. and it did distract from actual scumhunting so props. but yeah.
  the miller claim while knowing werewolves are the scumteam also could be used as an early claim for towncred- "wow guys, see, i thought there was just mafia like usual just like you guys".
  
  
• still don't like his repeated attempts to play devil's advocate with townreads on him
  
  i don't see how thinking to do that comes from a town mindframe. if you're town and someone's defending you with reasons why your claim is town, you just agree with them, since you know you're town.
  ap continually rebutting reasons why people thought he was town earlier on just suggest he's scum who feels safe surrounded by those townreads, but he's scum so he can't resist pointing out minor flaws in the logic that are obvious to only him.
  
  
• slightly subtle omgusing - yes, and i mean actual omgus out of seemingly nowhere, not just "omg you're not allowed to scumread me, i was scumreading you first!"
  
  i felt like he was calling me town for only as long as i helped him reinforce his miller claim and supported the idea that he shouldn't be policy lynched for that claim alone. when i started to question it, it felt like he 180d on me and i suddenly became a major scumread of his without logical reason or any prior thought progression toward the read.
  
  
• brood's post 47: "i think [townplayer] and [scumpartner] are scum together, so i'll vote [townplayer] by bullshitting a few reasons to make them sound like a stronger read than [scumplayer]"
  
  something i see scum doing incredibly commonly these days. in this case it was him choosing to push a jingle lynch over an ap lynch.
  
  
• not to mention brood immediately coming in to defend ap's miller claim when people want to policy lynch him then in the next post proposing ap as scum???
  
  

  AngryPidgeon's claim is pretty null to me. D1 miller claim is common, and can't be really dealt with until we catch scum and see motivations.

  defends ap against players wanting to policy lynch
  

  Sure a miller claim is WIFOM, but there's really nothing to be confused about.

  policy lynch talk cools down, brood makes a post that's pretty much the total opposite of calling the claim into question
  

  The positioning of AP's joke about AP's alignment feels off to me. The joke itself is

  obv tension about Miller's actual role that Jingle knows about. I sense a Jingle and AP scum team.

  The naked bw vote on me feels way too opportuinistic feels like he is looking for a quick lynch.
  
  VOTE: Jingle

  sudden 180 for distancing- when ap isn't in immediate danger, all it takes is a joke from jingle for brood to try and distance himself from ap after the initial defense.

blah this was kinda rambly

tl;dr:

the miller claim turned deputy claim is pretty ridiculous from all angles, and how this is a 9p normal game makes it look even less real. lynch it, because even if you don't explicitly have a scumread on ap like i do, everyone should agree by now that letting that kind of claim go unchecked into lylo is a Really Bad Decision™.

[Marquis]

tl;dr: the miller claim turned deputy claim is pretty ridiculous from all angles in the context of this 9p normal game and its already-flipped roles. lynch it, because even if you don't explicitly have a scumread on ap like i do, everyone should agree by now that letting that kind of claim go unchecked into lylo is a Really Bad Decision™.

emphasis and slight edit

[Marquis]

I don't know, Marquis. That all seems wildly speculative to me...

considering I said I was doing as-accurate-as-i-can-be setup spec then ok

ap I'm aware you're a good scumplayer. I just think you're scum with the situation against you right now

Later

[Marquis]

Hey marquis let's unvote me before feireis scum buddy hammers me

what part of "no way there's 3 scum on a team" don't you get

[Marquis]

i mean you could be speaking from a 2 mafia 1 ww perspective but ehhh i really don't think that kind of setup is viable here

[Marquis]

flubber needs to post, checking activity overview i keep thinking he's dead and it's 4p

pedit miller claims don't get policy lynched on this site yet also very very rarely get nightkilled, so no risk on that end considering ap is a great player who would be expected to be offed soon. also, if they're both werewolves but his partner flips first, it still distances him from that because there is that thought that he/someone else brought up earlier about scum spec. idk. i pretty much think the claim and ap's play are just a shitton of wifom and i don't think i'll ever be able to trust that being town

pedit2 the roles that have flipped so far indicate that the game balance does not account for 3 scum (unless myko is being abnormal normal)

[Marquis]

if i'm wrong on ap (yeah i'm acknowledging that chance) and game doesn't end then i think there's scum between you/feirei, leaning fei? i think

[Marquis]

meh.
i need to sleep i'm killing myself over this because my reads lately have been so dead

[Marquis]

growing paranoia over "the werewolf"

[Marquis]

no quickhammer means i'm probably right about the setup. yayyy

[Marquis]

i hunted



i found

[Marquis]

prodded, sorry myko, i forgot

I claim VT

[Marquis]

I've decided from now on I'm going to try my best to not get offended by people not reading my posts

... actually starting tomorrow

[Marquis]

flubber go reread the end of my big ap post, it's not just about the setup spec, though the setup spec does have an important part in how i don't believe his claim

[Marquis]

with how long this is taking, there's either only one scum left or ap is part of the scumteam. I think the latter is true, but i also think ap is the only scum left

compromise with me here- ap cannot be allowed to go on with that claim

[Marquis]

no.

i'm saying that in hindsight i think the early miller claim was to throw people off
i think the change to deputy was a move made in order to scare town into not lynching a stronger power role
and i don't believe that there is a deputy left here

[Marquis]

the "don't let him get to lylo" is my argument to you, as a compromise if you don't think he's scum.