Micro 417: <Everyone is Against Me?!> GAME OVER

[A N Onymous]

VOTE: Oscar Wilde

For insulting soc's skill to undermine soc's vote on OW.

Please could everyone set an avatar? Makes the game way more readable.

[A N Onymous]

It was a joke.
Vote train... vote training... get it?

I dislike the votes on Hulk. You do realize that he likely decided on that post before he even opened his role PM right?

Yeah, I got the joke. But it was a scummy joke.

If you dislike the votes on Hulk, does that mean you find someone else more likely scum? Who?

@GreyHulk: why SoC?

[A N Onymous]

it's rvs
it's rvs in an alt game
i don't like the serious so soon
looks fake-helpful

I do like serious the immediately. It's supposed to be real-helpful.

same for gorkington and anon!
hee hee

Really? My main didn't have email visible. Thanks, though, disabled.

[A N Onymous]

What do you mean "trying too hard"? Is "trying too hard" something scum do more than town? If so, why?

[A N Onymous]

it's supposed to be "real-helpful" but it wasn't at all. the reasoning was terrible.

I find that making cases helps get the game going (and is also more fun). So I pick on something I think is scummy - even if only a tiny bit - and vote on it. Here's what I actually said:

VOTE: Oscar Wilde

For insulting soc's skill to undermine soc's vote on OW.

Please could everyone set an avatar? Makes the game way more readable.

I think that calling somebody stupid when they vote for you is slightly scummy. I'm not saying it's hugely important. It's probably not something I'd even bring up later in the game. But it's better than nothing on page 1.

---

I'm kind of struggling for scumreads here. I find it really difficult to analyse people's motives when they're talking about me . I don't like my current vote, though.

UNVOTE:

I'll try to drum up some reads later today.

[A N Onymous]

The unvote is just because Oscar doesn't feel like scum here. Possibly I misunderstood that post you quoted, but he doesn't seem to be capitalising on the pressure on me, even though I'm the one he's voting for. Also, I think his mysterious *reasons* don't seem like scum happy with the current game state - they just invite people to ask him about them and possibly start a fight with SoC.

I don't really see how my unvote could be because of pressure - the pressure isn't about the quality of my vote, it's about my tryhardiness (good word). It's pretty clear that unvoting isn't going to relieve that. In fact, it's going to make it worse.

VOTE: mandytastykitty

Seems the active player who most happy just to sit back and let this happen, which is what I'd expect scum to be doing right now.

[A N Onymous]

I'm afraid to say I'm not a newb.

Why do you think I'm scummy?

[A N Onymous]

Seems the active player who most happy just to sit back and let this happen, which is what I'd expect scum to be doing right now.

what are you even talking about
what am i sitting back and letting happen
what happened that was so important that i should have been here to comment on instantly

My wagon. You voted for me, and explained you "don't like the serious so soon, it looks fake-helpful". Then there were quite a few posts on this - from me, Vux, me, Oscar, Vux and Duality. You didn't respond - in fact, you haven't posted about it since I first did. It feels like you were quite content to sit back and watch a wagon on me, without really trying to work out whether I'm scum or not.

I agree with the above post on SoC, though. I don't think mandy's ISO is either "close to zero content" or "loaded with IIoA".

On Duality; what OW is really saying is that Duality is sheeping without acknowledging it, and that he transformed a random vote on me into a serious vote without being explicit about it. Those are both true; I'm not that convinced either of them is scummy.

[A N Onymous]

i actually did like anonymous... but i'm not so sure how much i like post 75. because - ANO, those very things that you admitted to be true, are indeed scummy. you saying that you're not convinced... looks almost a little.... too rational (?) for my liking. ..if that makes sense. kinda like being the peace keeper, and not trying to make any ripples in the pond. .. same as when you mentioned that you're finding it difficult to get any scum reads.

-olivia

I don't think sheeping is automatically scummy. It's something people who are having difficulty getting their own reads do, as town or scum. Sure, you

should

acknowledge it - but I don't think town do much more than scum. Similarly with letting the RV stay on; if I was RV'ing someone, and then they became scummy, I'd leave the vote on. I'd hope I'd also say "and now my vote is real - feel my wrath!". But I might forget; and I'm not sure I'd do that more as town than scum.

so is it really so objectionable that i was waiting for something to happen?
there weren't any posts from you that anything more could really be drawn out of. the two posts you did make were useless to me and i didn't really care to encourage some of the other behavior that was going on
truth be told, i just didn't really care
thanks for the support with your second line. i'll determine at a later date whether you're trying to please me or if you genuinely feel that way

This is a pretty reasonable response. I care quite a lot about wagons on me; I guess I tend to assume that's all anyone else is thinking about as well .

@SoC: I hate quote walls with a passion, so here is my analysis of mandy's ISO:

Post 3: random vote. Fine.
Post 25: Asks Duality if they're a hydra. I don't really get the hydra thing - I've not played much in the hydra era - but people seem to care so seems fair enough.
[http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p6399499]Post 26[/url]: Votes for me, for being too serious. Fine.
Post 27: Tells hulk to stop deliberately messing up votes. Yeah, this one is a bit pointless - it stops short of actually calling hulk scum, just tells him to stop doing it.
Post 32: Explaining vote on me. Fine.
Post 34: Also 35 and 49. Email revealing main thing. Sure, it's not scumhunting, but it's a bit of fun and probably also a good thing to tell those people. You could call this IIoA.
Post 73: Replies to my attack on him. After this, his whole ISO is fine.

So, yeah. I think there's one fluff post - on hulk - and the brief bout of alt-email-stuff which isn't scumhunting. But around that, he's got a serious vote up fast, talked about it, defended his attack on me. If you were ranking the players by the amount of scumhunting-relevant stuff they'd done, he'd be quite high.

---

More tonight - still not happy with where my reads are in this game (ie. I don't have any worth a damn).

Sorry guys. This was me. Should never have bookmarked this as my main. Thanks to the mod for his mercy.

[A N Onymous]

oh
i had thought fish = dual
oh
makes more sense now
post about hulk still misinterpreted

Is it? It told hulk to stop fucking up vote tags, said his quote walls and greenness were annoying. That's a lot of criticising hulk, but nothing coming out and saying he's scummy.

But yeah, overall I'm not seeing what SoC is saying about mandy at all.

Some reads:

mandy looks pretty genuine about everything.

OW also. The thoughts on me in 98 ring very true, which is always a good sign.

No real read on gork. Posts are reasonable, nothing screams town or scum.

SoC has made a case against mandy that doesn't really hold up. But bad cases are one of the weakest ever scumtells, absent of obvious opportunism or other scum motivation. I dislike 71 on Duality, though. It seems like a way to prod a wagon without really committing to anything.

Grey's done bugger all - the entirety of his scumreads is to say that "a couple of my posts look forced". At a time when that was a very uncontroversial thing to say.

Vulix is scummy. Jumps all three possible wagons (me, mandy, Soc), without voting for any. I don't really see anything in his ISO that makes me think he

cares

about finding out whether either those people are scum. There aren't any questions, and his responses are minimal. Seems more like scum positioning than town trying to work out who we should lynch. He also says mandy has been "doing nothing" in 59 - and then attacks SoC for saying nearly the same thing two posts earlier in 57! Seems like scum caught forgetting what they were pretending to believe.

VOTE: Vulix

[A N Onymous]

He also says mandy has been "doing nothing" in 59 - and then attacks SoC for saying nearly the same thing two posts earlier in 57!

Can you point out where Vulpixeon attacks SoC's post 57? I don't see it.

Here it is:

Mandy's had a town response to the scumread on her so for now my read is changed to town on her. She also has a good point on string about his terrible scumread, which made me scumread SoC. Oscar you still haven't said your own reasons for your scumread on SoC though, which I'm still waiting to hear.

mandy's "good point on string about his terrible scumread" is all about 57.

No, it's called other people changing your read during a game. Mandy's post changed my read on both her and SoC.

Obviously, reads change and that's not a problem. But here, you and SoC attacked mandy for a similar thing. mandy posted about it, and you didn't just back down (which I have no problem with) - you also went after SoC. That's what seems weird to me - if you had a scumread on mandy, and you're town, you know how town gets to that scumread, so finding it scummy in someone else is off. And the timing is convenient for scum, since both wagons were looking fashionable when you expressed your read.

Sorry, by "jump on a wagon" I don't mean vote - I mean support it, express the same suspicions, put yourself in a position to vote for it. Here, you've expressed suspicion on all the strongest wagons, without voting for them, and that suspicion has gone away when another exciting wagon has come along. It's possible you just happen to agree with all those wagons, but it seems more likely you are opportunistic scum.

[A N Onymous]

I don't really have anything to say, but I'm around. I'd like to hear what some more people think of Vulix.

[A N Onymous]

Bleh, we need much more activity here.

VOTE: stringofcharacters

That's L-1.

I'm pretty torn on the SoC wagon. It's pretty townish, which is nice, but he's only a little on the scummy side of neutral for me. Still, I honestly can't see us raising a better wagon before the end of the day - the lynches I'd prefer are Vulix and probably Grey, and they won't happen.

[A N Onymous]

Casanova's replace-in is shiny and good and we're not lynching him.

Going to read through it again and particularly think about OW later, but for now this is way better than my current vote:

VOTE: Grey Hulk

[A N Onymous]

Thinking about people in order of how many votes they have:

- Casanova. His replacing in has me nodding along. SoC was only slightly scummy. Slightly town.
- RtR. Put Casanova at L-1. So what, really? Possibly anti-town. Not particularly scummy.
- Duality - can't really muster much of a read here. I don't really like the going-along-with-Oscar post where he votes String (106). Reads a bit like he was just waiting for Oscar to give any justification so that he could jump on SoC. Slightly scum, I guess.
- Oscar Wilde - not really seeing him as scum. Sure, there's a fairly general "it's fake" scumread on SoC, but generally they give me strong town vibes.
- Grey Hulk - still done very little. I'm surprised by the votecount - I thought I was joining a wagon of some kind.
- Vulix - not much has changed since my last thoughts on him in 117/127. I really dislike his play up to that point. 188 is a decent set of reads, but nothing controversial, nothing that's going to start a fight or go anywhere.
- mandy is pretty townish (pedit: nooooo mandy don't get replaced!). xenu/Gork are both fine.

VOTE: Vulix

Vulix > GH > Duality > [Casanova, RtR, OW].

Everyone:

what do you think of Vulix?

[A N Onymous]

I was hilariously off on my guess of who mandy was so I think I'll avoid trying to outsmart the game in the future

Anonymous if you are townreading casanova and then you also see that strings softed a PR then how does this lead to your conclusion of "RtR so what"

I don't think that scum really put town softclaims at L-1 in the hope someone will hammer. I wish scum were that obvious, but they're just not. I think replacing in and taking a wagon immediately to L-1 is much more of a playstyle than alignment-relayed thing.

[A N Onymous]

ANO are you just going to ignore this?

Want to say this before I post my reads. To everyone who says I'm playing carefully or something along those lines because I haven't been voting:

I don't do pressure votes, at all. I vote for someone because I want them lynched and I think they're scum. I don't believe in pressure votes, mainly because I don't think they work. This is the way I am on my main as well, whether I'm town or scum.

Why is playing like this scummy?

Sorry, meant to reply to this - thanks for reminding me.

My reasons for thinking you are scum don't have a lot to do with you not voting. They are:
- Weakly attacking all three players who came under any early pressure, with posts that just don't look like you care whether they are scum (no questions, you don't follow anything up much). It looks like opportunistic positioning, not scumhunting. I guess not voting does come into that, but it's not central.
- The switch from mandy to SoC - you pretty much contradict your 59 when you attack SoC's 57, without a mention. Looks like scum forgetting their earlier "reads".

[A N Onymous]

I don't think that scum really put town softclaims at L-1 in the hope someone will hammer. I wish scum were that obvious, but they're just not. I think replacing in and taking a wagon immediately to L-1 is much more of a playstyle than alignment-relayed thing.

town also doesn't put someone at l-1 without any explanation.

OK. So we've established that scum don't do it, and town don't do it. You know who does do it?

People who play differently from you and me.

I'm not all that great at reading those people, to be completely honest, but my strong experience/instinct is that stringing them up because they do something anti-town is not the road to victory.

[A N Onymous]

Could someone on the Vulixeon wagon briefly summarize it?

Absolutely!

Vulix attacked all three players who got attacked early on - me, mandy and stringofcharacters. Those posts don't have any questions, and they don't have any follow ups to speak of. They don't look like someone trying to honestly work out who is scum, but like scum positioning themselves to join wagons.

One specific point on the switch from mandy to SoC:
SoC said: "I'm seeing this too. Too many posts to quote (and I'm not feeling a wall post this early) but mandy's ISO has close to zero actual content and is loaded with IIoA."
Vulix said, two posts later: "Looking at mandy's ISO I also see that she's been doing nothing at all so far."
Vulix then described 57 as "[Soc's] terrible scumread, which made me scumread SoC". This makes no sense to me - even if Vulix has changed his mind, it's really weird to think SoC is scummy for holding Vulix's old position. It only makes sense if Vulix is scum who's kinda forgotten that read they concoted.

[A N Onymous]

*The reason for Duality's vote on me was because I wasn't explaining my read on stringquartet.

On page eleven, Duality states that his scum read was not resolved by me explaining my read on string.

So why the unvote?

Where does Duality say the bolded? Maybe I'm blind, but I can't find it.

[A N Onymous]

Eh. I read 251 as disliking the gut part of your read on SoC (which you mention a lot on page 9-10). It's not about bringing up the argument from page 4-5 again.

I'll not have much access before deadline, but I expect to be on for a chunk of time immediately before it if last minute flailing is called for.

[A N Onymous]

Let's lync Vulix. Scum claim unconfirmable PRs like doc. That's probably the single most common scumclaim. If we're not prepared to lynch a claimed doc, we're never going to lynch scum d1. It's not that powerful a role anyway, particularly in an odd-sized game (because if he saves, we don't get an extra day).

[A N Onymous]

Bleh. VT claims have a nasty habit of flipping VT. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

[A N Onymous]

Cool. Well done people who aren't me.

Taking a look at that wagon, and thinking about which of them

could

be bussing -

OW was consistently pushing Duality, and had a genuine-looking fight with him. He wanted Duality lynched. V unlikely partner.
GH voted Duality quite early - he was only the second vote - never pushed much, and expressed willingness to flip to Vulix. But it doesn't feel like a bus - no real attempt either to save Duality or get much credit.
Gutenberg came in, voted Duality at a very significant time, didn't do much to get any credit out of it. V unlikely partner.
Casanova is the most likely partner on the wagon - could have felt he had to switch after the doc claim. But Duality went after Casa reasonably hard, so that also seems quite unlikely.
Reason is dead. Well done Reason.

So, the best place to look for scum is off the wagon. Scum rarely bus in this size of game - it's a huge deal if one gets lynched. So, me, Vulix and xenu. Spoiler: it's not me.

Vulix is scummy (see my posting yesterday). And I think he's a decent fit for a Duality partner:

Duality's end of day play is odd if Vulix is town, for a couple of reasons:
1) He didn't vote or even say anything negative about Vulix.
2) He claimed VT. Scum might well have counterclaimed doc, or some other PR.

For Vulix on Duality; in 188 Vulix is totally null on Duality. He doesn't mention him again, at all, until 298, when Vulix is "scummy as hell". Looks quite convincing for scum, with two scum wagons, trying to get some last minute bussing in.

xenu hasn't been scummy. He's also an OK fit for a Duality partner; jumps on RtR when he briefly looked an alternative to Duality. He calls Duality's reads "volatile", but barely talks about him. In the other direction Duality barely talked about xenu/Gork, and Gork didn't talk about Duality either

VOTE: Vulixeon

[A N Onymous]

I'm also beginning to question ANO because VCA is shit. There's no real reason to claim that bussing absolutely did not happen or even that it's unlikely; less than 1/3 D1 Micro Scum lynches lack Scum on the wagon, based on gm's stats thing.

I'm surprised by that stat. I haven't actually played much Micro, but my instinct is that serious bussing should very rare in a two man scum team (which with 9 players is pretty definitely the size). Scum might vote for each other at the end of the day, when the lynch is pretty certain, but if someone does something that makes a scum lynch much more likely, they're a lot less likely to be scum. Here, I think that's OW, you and to a lesser extent GH.

I don't particularly want Casanova to claim unless he's got something useful to say. I don't see it gains us much - unless it's a role which is unlikely to coexist with Doc.

[A N Onymous]

xenu and A N Onymous are my top partner picks for Duality. xenu for creating the Duality vs Vulixeon scenario, with no explanation other than "to avoid a no lynch," when Duality already had a plurality lead. A N Onymous for advocating the Vulixeon lynch even after his Doc claim.

So, me advocating the Vulix lynch clearly makes sense as scum trying to save their partner - no sense denying that. The only thing I'll say there is that you had already pretty firmly left the Vulix wagon - so it was unlikely my post would actually work, and it clearly wasn't going to look good.

But the main thing I can do is set out why I wanted the Vulix lynch as town. I think people are way too scared of lynching PR claims. It pretty well gives scum a get-out-of-jail-free card day 1 - claim Doc, and either you out a real doc to counterclaim or you don't get lynched. That's exactly what happened yesterday, for example. This means that scum nearly always claim PR - so a PR claim actually flips scum way more often than a VT claim. I think that a role claim should usually be followed immediately by a lynch - the only exception being for roles which, if real, scum have to shoot at straight away (mostly strong investigative ones).

I also don't think an outed Doc is a very strong role in 9 player. This is for two reasons:
1) A successful protect brings us to an even number of players, so doesn't even give us an extra lynch.
2) If there's a useful role to protect (like cop, say), scum nearly definitely have some counter to the combo; the simplest possibility being a roleblocker.

---

I believe Casa, and if he's lying that's probably going to become pretty obvious anyway. So, that gets rid of the most likely busser and also xenu, which is awesome. Just makes me keener on Vulix - if anything, a cop claim makes having a doc in the game less likely.