UK Meet 2015 Invitational (Game Over)

[Elmo]

Lies, damned lies, and VOTE: ChannelDelibird

[Elmo]

I feel like my vote is precisely where it needs to be.

Please elaborate.

I'm way town, though!

Honestly kinda understand the votes on me and am rather self-conscious at the moment

{..}

Huh? What changed?

I'm finding it hard to interpret Av/Shanba's third votes; feels rather different to F2F.

[Elmo]

Hey, sorry.

UNVOTE: ChannelDelibird, VOTE: AurorusVox just feels too opportunistic, and I don't see anything sufficiently compelling about Prozac's wagon. #106 is quite a stretch; maybe I'm doing that thing where I think people who vote me are town, but I really doubt someone deliberately plans out that sort of response as scum.

I thought it was a decent first vote.

I'm pretty surprised by this. I'd have thought sliding onto the wagon with a reason that weak was worse than pushing it to begin with; he seems clearly worse than Nexus in that respect.

Nexus, anything specific?

I'm pretty lukewarm on Inspie and hope to look closer at that tomorrow.

[Elmo]

AV's flailing warms my heart. I'd still like some explanation of #48; CDB's only action since your vote was trying to wagon inspie, but you seem happier with your vote - why?

The only thing I don't get is why you went off Poro just when his wagon might go somewhere.

Subtle, but this feels scummy. CDB switched his vote from Poro to you, so this indrectly throws suspicion on him - you're implying that there's something specific about the point in time he unvotes, except I really don't see what it could be, and actually the wagon never had much momentum.

inspie, what do you think of AV, specifically the voting pattern I mentioned?

[Elmo]

What flailing?

You've done little but poke at Nexus / Fences for things which are clearly null, ignoring not only questions addressed to you but basically everything potentially interesting. At this point, it's like you're trying to give up as little information as possible if you do get lynched today.

I've briefly reread Porochaz, still prefer AV.

Shanba, what do you think about my comments on Inspie in #133? I acknowledge it's somewhat thin, but I think it's there.

[Elmo]

Hello hito!

AV still scum :V

Wish I could haiku..

[Elmo]

v t n t y t ht bt cn b n m th ty t my yb h t ng yt gn...

Aaaaaaa, aa aaaa aa aaaaaaa aaaa a aaaa aaaa aaaaaaaa aa aaaaaaa a aaaaa aaaaaa. Aaaaaaaaaaa, a aaa aaaa aaaaaaa aaaa!!

[Elmo]

I'm pretty unenthusiastic about Prozac's wagon. I don't think he's super townish, but by now I'm unironically more suspicious of Nexus for pushing it this hard.

CDB, specifically, you voted AV because you thought Prozac looked fairly town; what do you think about Shanba, and his reasons in #104? In retrospect, I would've expected you to press him on that.

I think Shanba is townish but I don't really know how to read Nexus or Primate. I guess I'll reread them again tomorrow!

[Elmo]

This is basically a prod avoidance post. Briefly, I don't really believe Nexus would have a hard time faking anything he's posted, but meta is weird like that so I guess I can't write it off without rereading closely with the stated read in mind. I kind of wanted to vote CDB again when he voted Shanba but now I kind of don't. Basically there's still a bunch of stuff I need to reread/work through and it didn't get done because unexpected things.

[Elmo]

Unsurprisingly I don't want to lynch Porochaz today. I feel like don't have a great handle on the game, so I'm tempted to just sheep someone, but.. uh, I might actually do that.

I kept my vote on Prozac because I thought that was the best place, until he claimed. I'm inclined to believe his claim right now.

Why have you immediately jumped to believing the claim, as distinct from letting him go for today? I have the distinct impression that tracker is a fairly common fakeclaim, honestly I found it mildly scummy just for that. This pings because I absolutely hate it when I'm convinced someone's scum and they get off the hook by waving a claim around, and you've been pretty single-minded on him.

So Ampersand is giving me pause and thats worrying, the Fenchurch side of things has given me town vibes. In F2F that is usually indicative of Fenscum.

Um, please explain?

I briefly reread Primate and it didn't help much, the only thing I remember about forum Primate is he had an odd/lurky playstyle.. Shanba, what specifically pinged for you? I remember you talked about one part about him feeling stressed, but I think you talked about posts plural. I think what you pointed out is weird, but it's also pretty weird to post it as scum.

CDB having that many town reads seems off at this point. Hey, CDB, what's your read on Primate/Tammy now, and why?

I'm mulling a theory where CDB-scum overestimates his ability to read Nexus-town and ends up giving reasoning that seems really stretched. I'm not sure how dumb that sounds. I have to reread this specifically, ugh. I do remember him making a side comment about the AV lynch that seemed intended to earn him town cred but did nothing to stop the lynch from happening. I remember disliking his Shanba vote in #223 but not why. Hmm.

[Elmo]

I lost a post because I knocked a watch off something and it landed directly on F5. First time for everything.

I'm always uncomfortable when CDB says he town reads me as heavily as he has today.

Why, what happened previously?

CDB's stated reasons were that Nexus has been invested and trying to make things happen, and that he sometimes struggles to replicate his unpopular beliefs when scum. From memory, Nexus has sat comfortably on Porochaz from early Day 1 where it was fairly clear there was an appetite for it; there was also the fact that he passed up the Inspie wagon and I haven't reread that still, but that seems like it should be weak relative to the overall pattern of his play. I await Nexus' reread but at the moment, it doesn't fit very well.

I don't think the two of them can be partnered though, or are very likely. If cdb does feel, and it's substantiated by other games, that he can read Nexus, I doubt if they were partnered he'd be likely to read him as strongly town because I don't think* Nexus has a very strong scum game and would likely be caught which would put cdb in a bad position. And with you guys all knowing each other so well and being friends I think he'd be less likely to get away with town reading his scum partner Nexus, who would likely be caught as scum, and then there he'd be looking too obvious.

If they are partnered, I figure it's basically either bus Nexus hard early, or super town read him early to keep him alive, it's really awkward no matter what. My impression is that CDB doesn't strongly bus that often. And seems like it kinda has been working? But this still feels like I'm being dumb. Basically I need someone to tell me why my theory is stupid so I can stop considering it.

This felt stretchy. I didn't think this felt contradictory.

I was more interested in the fact he seemed to "understand" the votes on him, which seems less likely to come from town. I think I skimmed back to see what he said about the votes on him, interpreted the first quote as saying he looked town and thought it worth asking about.

Hmm, I should vote but it's, uh, late. Tammy has posted a bunch of stuff which I haven't read properly but seems reasonably townish so far, which is mildly annoying since that leaves me with Nexus and CDB, and, well, is it that easy? It just feels off because I'd expect CDB to get nervous around Nexus, but he just seems very nonchalant about the whole thing. I dunno. Consider this a nominal vote for CDB.

pedit: Good evening/morning!

[Elmo]

Non-Shanba stuff postponed, sorry!

Mod

, please prod Tammy & Porochaz, thank you.

Elmo, what's your current read on me? What's your read on prozac?

Generally townish. I remember you starting out quite relaxed, you hate being scum so posts like #41 seem townish when they're comfortable and read natural. A number of times you said things I was thinking, like #126 when AV was being weird, FenCes talking to themselves, reaction to the last part of CDB's #55. I think your frustration in #254 seems real, inthat again I've had a similar feeling at around that time, I think.

Bad signs - You didn't take many strong positions, although that's not really specific to you. The hito kill points to you most.

If I judged Porochaz on play he's somewhat scummy. If town, he hasn't got his teeth into the game, and I can sorta see that happening because I could see him as needing to be emotionally invested in a game to play well, but I think most people've had tough games and his attempts to get into the game have been weak - I don't know how throwing down a naked vote on me twice is supposed to do that, for example. If he's scum, he's pretty much skating through on the claim, and he's been much quieter since he was run up where I'd expect town Prozac to start trying to push something or even give a clear opinion since he's liable to die tonight.

Good signs - I was pretty leery of the wagon because Nexus' reasons seemed really thin, and he pushed it hard, yet it seemed to settle - you seemed to agree with him that he's the "default vote" which I found off-putting. The hito kill seems inconsistent with him being scum. Now you ask and I actually type that out, it's rather thinner than I'd like.

Bleah, I don't actually think this is a good lynch, but I can't put a good case out. Not sure when I'll be available today, but I'll post this now anyhow. I VOTE: ChannelDelibird I guess, due to the Nexus interaction, but I'm not sure who the best vote really is.

[Elmo]

Oh, more things. I'd definitely take a Nexus lynch over a Shanba lynch. CDB's read of him still weirds me out, though.

[Elmo]

In 286 you rule out Tammy and then say that leaves you with CDB-Nexus, but at that point I'd already placed a vote on Shanba, so why not consider him? Why haven't you considered us at all, for that matter?

I have considered you, I think you're probably town. I thought Shanba was townish, but when you voted, you said

I'm switching to Shanba now though, because looking back just briefly, although he's posted more than Primate/Elmo, I think he's actually been less insightful, and the post I'd marked him as town for (104) doesn't look that amazing in retrospect. Plus I think Shanba-scum would also be fairly likely to make the hito-kill.

Basically, evaluating this needed more rereading which I put on my to-do list; I wanted to get to it sooner, but didn't manage. In absence of that, I went with the read I had to try and find a better lynch.

[Elmo]

Tammy first is fine.

[Elmo]

Vanilla townie, Nexus next.

[Elmo]

Elmo - where are you at right now?

While I do owe Porochaz a due diligence reread, I do think you're town and I doubt that'd change much if I ever got around to rereading.
I still think it's CDB, partly due to PoE and partly because for a while Nexus has done pretty much the opposite of his stated reason for the town read but he hasn't even questioned it. I'm not sure exactly what it means but there's something unnatural about it.
Nexus doesn't look great (his reaction to Prozac's claim is still on my mind), and since he was so focussed on Porochaz I've been waiting on his reread for a while. However, I assume CDB has some skill at reading Nexus since three people seem to acknowledge it (Nexus, CDB, CES?) so he's less likely to be scum unless it's with CDB. The game where CDB bussed him was a 24p large, and I haven't read it closely but it seemed he didn't do a great (or loud) job of spelling out his reasoning; the wagon didn't go anywhere and Nexus only ended up dead due to the vig. I think CDB'd have a harder time getting away with that kind of half-measures play in this game, and it seems a lot riskier to Day 1 bus your only buddy vs one of 4. My gut feeling is that the interactions do seem to feel more like CDB buddying town-Nexus who finds it disconcerting but can't realistically argue against it since his play makes him pretty vulnerable without it. The alternative buddy would be Primate/Tammy, and Primate was pretty much a blank for me - what he posted was pretty unobjectionable but limited, which might otherwise be scummy but seemed fairly well explained by playstyle. I remember thinking it was weird that CDB had a strong town read on Primate - he's actually had quite a few town reads, now I think of it. The one point in Tammy's favour was her replace-in post which I thought was townish.

I thought Primate was pretty solidly town throughout for just general stuff (I've obviously been distracted, so I don't really remember much of how it formed other than that he just struck me as town).

This is some premium waffle and what tips it towards CDB/Tammy for me. In fact, please nail his ass to the wall on this.

I would say CDB/Tammy > CDB/Nexus >> Tammy/Nexus > Ampersand/anyone. But the first two could switch depending on what Tammy/Nexus post today.
Basically, if Nexus is town, it's CDB/Tammy and if Nexus is scum it's CDB/Nexus.

You say that you'd take a nexus lynch over a shanba lynch, but you never voted for nexus and in your previous post you're voting for cdb. Do you think they're scum together? (I know you previously thought this), but if so why not push the cdb lynch harder?

I think I'd said everything I had on CDB and it didn't seem to take off. I intended to move my vote if something did, but it didn't and I turned out not to be around in any case. I might have done more cheerleading for CDB if I had.

Do you remember what prompted you to re-read Primate, Elmo?

I think it was Shanba saying some of Primate's posts, plural, pinged for him, but only brought up one post that I could see.

Mod, please replace me

. Sorry folks, I'm enjoying this but it's increasingly clear that I have too much on my plate right now.