UK Meet 2015 Invitational (Game Over)

[Ampersand]

Woops that was me.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

I'm always uncomfortable when CDB says he town reads me as heavily as he has today. Like I said yesterday, I need to re-read properly - my head isn't really in a good place at the minute so the re-read keeps falling further and further down my list of priorities.

Nexus - at this point in the game you mentioned some suspicion of CDB for heavily townreading you. Yet when I questioned CDB more about his townread of you (trying to discern both his and your own alignment), you thought I was scummy for it.

And, at the end of the day you were quite willing to vote CDB's proposed lynch choice of Tammy, despite previously saying that lynching the claimed VT (Shanba) seemed the best choice, and when I asked you about your read on Shanba, you said you hadn't looked into him/didn't really have an opinion.

So… what is your current read on CDB, and what has been your progression on CDB throughout the game.

Also I'd still quite like for you to explain this statement:

I still can't shake the fact that I consider the AV wagon a bit of a counter-wagon to Poro - he's been run up AGAIN today and ARGH

I'm confused by this, why does it make you bothered about Poro being run up? Surely the counter-wagon to a lynched townie stands a reasonable chance of being scum, or at least, the fact that he was a counterwagon doesn't make him more likely to be town.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

For info, my reads list right now:

most scummy

CDB = Elmo = Nexus = Tammy

most town

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I'm always uncomfortable when CDB says he town reads me as heavily as he has today. Like I said yesterday, I need to re-read properly - my head isn't really in a good place at the minute so the re-read keeps falling further and further down my list of priorities.

Nexus - at this point in the game you mentioned some suspicion of CDB for heavily townreading you. Yet when I questioned CDB more about his townread of you (trying to discern both his and your own alignment), you thought I was scummy for it.

And, at the end of the day you were quite willing to vote CDB's proposed lynch choice of Tammy, despite previously saying that lynching the claimed VT (Shanba) seemed the best choice, and when I asked you about your read on Shanba, you said you hadn't looked into him/didn't really have an opinion.

So… what is your current read on CDB, and what has been your progression on CDB throughout the game.

Also I'd still quite like for you to explain this statement:

I still can't shake the fact that I consider the AV wagon a bit of a counter-wagon to Poro - he's been run up AGAIN today and ARGH

I'm confused by this, why does it make you bothered about Poro being run up? Surely the counter-wagon to a lynched townie stands a reasonable chance of being scum, or at least, the fact that he was a counterwagon doesn't make him more likely to be town.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

For info, my reads list right now:

most scummy

CDB = Elmo = Nexus = Tammy

most town

- Fenchurch

[Nexus]

I mean it's making me more convinced he's scum but i'm also concerned that i'm being over paranoid

Literally answered that point two posts later?

I'll get to the rest on Saturday.

[Ampersand]

I mean it's making me more convinced he's scum but i'm also concerned that i'm being over paranoid

Literally answered that point two posts later?

I don't fully get the explanation then? Unless:

The first bit of the sentence is you saying that you thought Poro

was

scum, on account of him was the counterwagon to AV on D1. But then 'argh' bit is because you think the first bit might be just 'paranoia'?

Is that it?

- Fenchurch

[Nexus]

Yes.

Basically I'm paranoid about everything. I'm paranoid about the fact you're still alive. I'm paranoid about the fact CDB is still hard townreading me, although the fact he's kept it up to today makes me slightly less paranoid.

I need to do a genuine, honest to god re-read, and I will do it on Saturday.

[Tammy]

What did you expect from Tammy?

You and Nexus had both claimed VT or non-active roles. Tammy is perhaps the least familiar with the Greater Idea deck and with Patrick as a mod. She seemed like the best to push to go first as we figured Tammy-scum might be most likely to either claim something weird (that wouldn't fit well in the game) in anticipation of having to counter us, or to react in some way to the added pressure; or conversely, that Tammy-town making a claim that fitted really well would be a lot more believable. I also expected her to respond a bit more quickly than Elmo would (she was posting elsewhere on site), but that turned out to be wrong.

The fact that she was confident that we 'didn't have anything on her' made me think she's slightly more likely town, although CES is wondering if that is really the way she would respond if she is town. He thinks that her assumption that that's what we were doing could be more likely to come from a scum mindset. I'm still considering.

- Fenchurch

Yep, that's how I responded as town.


Your statement that I might change my role based on what you claimed sounded like you trying to make it seem like you had something on me either for reactions or to set me up. I knew you didn't have anything on me but the possibility of being set up still lingered. I imagine my scum response would have been different.

~~~

I'm trying to get current with today's stuff right now. I just remembered midterm grades are due today though so I might not get caught up until tonight. Which I promise when I get home from pub quiz I will do. I'm not sure if I have company coming this weekend yet or not, so I will make sure to do this before I go to bed tonight.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why do we think we have a reflexive doctor again? I must've missed something.

Nothing definitive, but that's definitely the scum power that I would pick if I were designing a game with a tracker and a lone mason and a tourist as the town's power. It's also very possibly the one that I would pick even without a tourist, but think the tourist makes for a better setup. It makes the mason sorta mean something, it makes the tourist potentially mean something, it gives the tracker a chance to not die. It feels like the right amount of protection in a nine-player game. And I'm pretty sure that it's a role of which Patrick is a fan in general.

I don't think that the above makes it more likely that we'd be able to find scum based on who might be a mafia reflexive doctor but, if I had to bet on the setup, that'd be my punt.

[Ampersand]

Oh if we're in the middle of a mass claim I should probably hold off on thoughts, huh?

Tammy you implied here that maybe you already had some thoughts you were holding back? What were they?

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

Basically I'm paranoid about everything. I'm paranoid about the fact you're still alive. I'm paranoid about the fact CDB is still hard townreading me, although the fact he's kept it up to today makes me slightly less paranoid.

I need to do a genuine, honest to god re-read, and I will do it on Saturday.

I feel like your views for the past two Days have had very little link to anything that's actually been happening in the game. I've posted a whole bunch since our claim; does none of that have any bearing on your opinion of us? I'm hoping that these kind of insights will come with your promised catchup.

Your play D2 & D3 reminds me a little of SleepyKrew in your recent Team Mafia Mini Normal. Would you say this is a reasonable comparison?

CDB - you've said that from your point of view now, the scumteam is Tammy-Elmo. What are your thoughts on that? Can you find anything to convince the rest of us?

Elmo - where are you at right now?

- Fenchurch

[Tammy]

Oh if we're in the middle of a mass claim I should probably hold off on thoughts, huh?

Tammy you implied here that maybe you already had some thoughts you were holding back? What were they?

- Fenchurch

Oh no, I was about to finish catching up on yesterday's posts when I realized that it was mass claim and I should hold off. Also, I was being somewhat selfish with my time as I was in the midst of a big kitchen cleaning/rearranging project yesterday, so the mass claim gave me a reason to keep working on that.

Also, pub quiz night went later than usual and I played video games when I got home instead of read because I'm a big fat liar, but it's okay because I found out my weekend is almost entirely free, which is sad face, but it also means I can get current/reread this weekend - tomorrow. Well later today actually because it's super late.

[Ampersand]

Do you think you procrastinate more as scum or as town?

[Tammy]

Hmm...that's a good question. I mean my immediate response is town, but quite frankly it's probably not alignment indicative. I haven't been scum since capcom in December/January where I kept pretty on top of things except for when I was traveling/submitting final grades. I once told shadoweh that if I say I'm going to do something and I dont, I'm probably town because as scum I'd feel self-conscious about not doing it whereas as town I feel like my towniness will shine through when I do it. Nacho told me recently that I've turned into a slacker. I'm not sure that's exactly true though.

It's just that my professional life has gotten increasingly busier over the past couple years and my personal life has gotten fuller in the past few months.

Anyway my weekend is pretty free, but I will do this today.

[Tammy]

By today I mean Saturday. Sorry, I was here and planning to catch up, but I have unexpected plans. Tomorrow evening is still free for me, so I promise. I promise!

[Tammy]

I'm in the middle of rereading the game to reconnect myself and will have some thoughts/questions posted tonight when I get back home.

But real quick - fen church from your reads list I'm gathering that you basically have everyone at the same level of towniness/suspicion? Does ces have a similar view?

I had another quick question and now I can't remember it. Maybe it will come back to me.

[Ampersand]

I'm in the middle of rereading the game to reconnect myself and will have some thoughts/questions posted tonight when I get back home.

But real quick - fen church from your reads list I'm gathering that you basically have everyone at the same level of towniness/suspicion? Does ces have a similar view?

I had another quick question and now I can't remember it. Maybe it will come back to me.

Yes - that's pretty much where I am. Everyone has done some things that are a bit town but nothing super town, so I don't have any clear front runners. I've been finding this game pretty difficult. It's quite a jarring compared to how I found Team Mafia, although I suppose it's not that different from some other previous games (e.g. Wicked, Scumdon, Open 274).

CES described his viewpoint below, I don't think much has changed. It's partly based on CDB's strong townread on Nexus: either CDB is town (in which case CES puts some faith in his read being correct) or CDB is scum (in which case there is one less scum card for Nexus to have). In addition, CES' own read on Nexus is leaning town.

Now, let's find some scum. Personally I'm currently thinking Tammy > CDb > Elmo > Nexus but since we do need to find both scum, I think my first order of business will to read back and see which of {Tammy-CDb, Tammy-Elmo, CDb-Elmo} I find the most plausible scum team.

- Fenchurch

[Tammy]

Oh I didn't realize post 465 was ces, though the voice makes a lot more sense now for what I thought sounded a bit tonally off from you. Granted I don't know you that well, but "now let's find some scum" felt oddly uh can't really think of he word, a bit off though if coming from you. I was also confused why you went from suggesting teams to having everyone equal.

[Tammy]

Wow, I'm pretty embarrassed to admit that I kinda forgot about this game for the past couple of days. I think that's the first time that's happened to me. Sorry all.

Porochaz - why did you choose to track CDB?

CES points out that even as a Tracker, Poro could be a Mafia Tracker, but thinks that if the claim is a lie or is scum this will become apparent come massclaim, so Poro is not the best lynch for today.

I'm inclined to believe the claim, and I'm inclined to think Poro is town now. I didn't have any strong read on him before anyway (the vote and the push was all from CES), and the hito-kill plus his claim make me think he's probably town.

My order of preference for lynching now:
scummiest > less scummy
Nexus >> Shanba > Primate/Elmo/CDB >>> Porochaz

I've read CDB's 228 on why he thinks Nexus is town, and I don't really agree. I think it assumes less from Nexus' scum play than is correct - that he wouldn't show engagement or investment in the game, that he wouldn't express opinions counter to the majority - I don't think these things are true. I think Nexus' play here could be scum, and I think he would be likely to kill hito last night.

VOTE: Nexus

- Fenchurch

Oh but fenchurch while you're around, is there a reason you pointed out that the push on Prozac was ces and you didn't have a strong read on him? You're very reflective on your thoughts and there's not a lot of indication that you weren't considering him as scum before that and in the end of day posts did have him listed as one of your biggest end of day suspects.

I feel like I might be getting hung up on something tiny here but it's rattling.

[Tammy]

I don't understand the mafia reflexive doctor discussion. From my understanding they protect whoever targets them, so if cdb was this role and prozac targetted him, then cdb would have automatically protected him? So, if someone targetted Prozac for the kill then Prozac would have been saved and come mass claim time cdb would have been caught as that role because there are no protectives?

Is my understanding correct? Since that didn't happen is there any bearing on the game or figuring out the game now beyond if we mislynch today, it actually has the potential to give us another day?

[Tammy]

<snip>

The reasonings for these feel like they should be closer in your reads than farther apart.

I don't really see what you mean.

It felt like the reasoning you were giving for being scummy and Prozac being townie were for somewhat similar reasons. They were both having problems getting into the game and were drawing heat. I guess the main difference was Prozac not being rattled by his wagon and you thought Avon was. Elmo said a similar thing about avox flailing but I didn't really see it. Although with how flustered I tend to get when there's a wagon on me, I tend to be a fair bit more forgiving over the flailing accusations.

[Ampersand]

Oh but fenchurch while you're around, is there a reason you pointed out that the push on Prozac was ces and you didn't have a strong read on him? You're very reflective on your thoughts and there's not a lot of indication that you weren't considering him as scum before that and in the end of day posts did have him listed as one of your biggest end of day suspects.

I feel like I might be getting hung up on something tiny here but it's rattling.

Err I mean mainly I just post the things that occur to me, especially if I think it will be of value to other players in understanding my thoughts and determining my alignment. I don't know if I would have jumped so quickly to feeling that Poro was town just because of a claim, if I'd had him as super strong scum before, so it seemed worthwhile to say that.

I definitely had him towards scum going into Night, and I was happy to target him Night 1 for that reason (we were generally aiming towards targeting scum, for multiple reasons). But like I've said, none of my reads have been that strong this game, although I haven't been so keen to say this openly before as I think it is generally anti-town.

In particular as well, the hito-kill gave me second thoughts about who was scum and who was town, so at the start of the D2 my reads were shaken a bit from what they were before.

- Fenchurch

[Ampersand]

I don't understand the mafia reflexive doctor discussion. From my understanding they protect whoever targets them, so if cdb was this role and prozac targetted him, then cdb would have automatically protected him? So, if someone targetted Prozac for the kill then Prozac would have been saved and come mass claim time cdb would have been caught as that role because there are no protectives?

Is my understanding correct? Since that didn't happen is there any bearing on the game or figuring out the game now beyond if we mislynch today, it actually has the potential to give us another day?

Yes your understanding is correct, and no it doesn't have any significant bearing on the game that I am aware of. The main uses I can think of for bringing it up are:
a) it had some influence in our night actions
b) just generally sharing information that might be true
c) scum might react oddly

- Fenchurch

[Tammy]

I'm still trying to make sense of the Hito night one kill. I think that cdb had a point that he could have easily have been a target on day two for his push on avox, and I think that might be the one thing that is keeping me looking a little sideways at ampersand even though their posting looks so town. i suck at balance, so I don't know what to think about the claim that tourist makes them more town. I guess I do like that they claimed something rather benign? And it does make me feel a little better that they didn't fake claim something on me which is what I partially had it in my mind they were going to do if they were scum as I think I'd be an easy person to set up after my disappearance yesterday.

Anyway, last nights kill makes sense. I had this silly thought that scum could have left Prozac alive in order to cause confusion but then that would be silly though looking at the end of day it looks like ampersand would have been a likely track target. Anyway my silly thought was oh but then he would have gotten an innocent on them because tourist, which is silly because they'd have to know tourist.

Anyway, I just kinda want to put these bits of paranoia to rest because it would be nice to have at least one solid town read that I can depend on, and I am of the mind that it's possible that ampersand just wasn't killed night one due to healer threat, and maybe Hito was the next choice because he was unlikely to be healed and he has a pretty good reputation for being obviously town when town and would have been able to overcome anything day two? Or maybe they thought that they had a better chance of manipulating those whom they know better?

I am concerned with the way that cdb came out on day two with the kill pointing to shanba. That might be hindsight bias though. I need to look back at that.