Micro 553: ETL's Double Day Unlimited (Game Over)
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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I've read up, and here is my stream of conciousness while reading. I don't edit this at all, so you'll see reads changing several times, etc, I'm sure. I'm not placing any votes in this post because if I vote and unvote like 20 times, ETL will literally murder me. I'll vote in a later post.
36: The first two pages are just sexual tension between Tere and Radiant. Good lord.
40, 41, 42: You're all terrible at the multiple vote mechanic.
45: FoS on Wicked for this. He tries to push Kublai for putting people at L-1 carelessly. He doesn't bother pushing the two that voted literally everyone, just as carelessly. Wicked then responds to the problem of too many votes being out and too many people being close to lynch by bringingeven more peopleclose to lynch. Come on now, that's either really dumb as town or trying to reach an accidental quick-lynch without being obvious as scum. You changed the gamestate to four people at L-1 or L-2 by post #45.
50: Oh, wait, I lied. He changed the gamestate to FIVE players at L-1 or L-2. smh
56: ... but another contender enters the ring. Kublai goes after the people who voted BEFORE his vote for being non-informative. If he actually cared about this, why not vote them back when he placed his three votes? Remember ... those three naked non-informative votes? His pressure on them is extremely hypocritical. This sounds like an attempt to throw suspicion on someone else when he's worried he's about to face suspicion.
60: Rookie mistake allowing Vote: All. Literally worst mod ever. Just kidding, obviously; voting mechanics in double day are hard to manage.
76: FYI, Kaboose reads like newb town that doesn't understand how voting is a tool to scum-hunt. I don't see any indication they're scum over newb town thus far.
89: Like, what is RC even doing here? He goes after Kublai for not considering them town, then gets annoyed when Kublai explains why he doesn't think RC is town? Uh ... what?
93: Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand ... blacklisted. I'm going to disregard RC's blow-up. I don't know what was going on with him, but it appears he just can't play with anyone trying to be even somewhat serious. Maybe try other sites?
101: Lesson to any newbs. Once you request replacement, you're out of the game, so stop talking.
107: Oh, RC is back now. Nevermind, not blacklisted. Just scum. It's way more likely that he was scum maneuvering with this whole blow up than town who seriously can't handle a basic and non-problematic interaction with an extremely polite user.
110: Kublai actually said my case better than I did in this post. He gets some town points for this.
111: And Kaboose is unimpeachable town now.
112: And TTH's post here is very town as well.
113: You don't know what a chainsaw is, one. And two, this is scum trying to discredit votes on them. RC is almost definitely where I'm going to vote.
116: WHAT! Fucking goddamn it. I can understand why my predecessor was banned. Fucking troll. Kaboose was obvtown. Kublai should have seen that, with his experience, although I can buy him being distracted from his vote due to the RC saga. The others I don't know experience levels of. But my slot's vote is terrible.... Probably trying to tank this game based on the info for his ban.
153: This reaction to the lynch stands out to me. Why is Wicked not at all reacting to it? It just seems ... weird. Don't know what scum motivation there would be to not reaction though. No town motivation comes to mind either.
170: The first response in 170 almost certainly comes from town. Kublai looked much better after the start of game. I can't see scum just backing down on their main case for no reason.
221: ProHawk hasn't actually contributed all game. This is a useless post.
232: ProHawk definitely knows better than this. Scum isn't automatically on a quick-lynch. There is significant scum motivation to be off a quick-lynch since it invites scrutiny. Not to mention that there's only one slot really responsible for the lynch, and that's my slot (Lhix). The rest can't know he would quick-hammer.
247: This vote is obvious OMGUS, but I still think TTH is town. I'm not convinced of his rationale on Con, by any means. Con seems vaguely like newb town imo.
250: Hey, got to my replace in!
262: Note to self that Antihero replaced Kublai. I think this slot's town so far from Kublai's posts.
268: And this just makes Anti more town. Solid case, and I was already getting suspicious of ProHawk. This wagon should indeed be a thing.
275: A double bump for VC? Bad form.
287: I feel bad for ETL having to replace everyone ;(
290:@Papa Zito:Rationale for Wicked-town? I'm not really seeing it.
292: And for Con as well. I have no idea your basis for this naked vote.
299: Horrible answer from Anti. Still a town read, but Jesus Christ.
301: Wicked defended himself with "I always talk serious" earlier this game, and now he's using "You're serious" to attack Kublai, who is no longer in the game to provide the same defense. Wicked has been on site long enough to know Kublai talks serious. This is a horrible post, and it's scum motivated.
317: RC, after the initial blow-up, went fully under-the-radar. No contributions, no nothing. Popped into thread every once in a while to make a minor comment and prod dodge. Could easily be scum floating by.
321: Conveniently, ProHawk goes for the main wagon. No surprise here.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 341, Antihero wrote:In post 337, Rob14 wrote:299: Horrible answer from Anti. Still a town read, but Jesus Christ.
no, it was a stupid question.
unless proven otherwise, "timing" on voting is usually informationless garbage that's peddled from the basis that ppl will vote someone they're not townreading AT THE EXACT FUCKING MOMENT THEY'RE DOING IT GODDAMNIT.
Or he could have been asking why you voted player X over player Y, which is how I read it (and how I believe any sane person would). That's absolutely a valid question.-
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In post 343, RadiantCowbells wrote:Yeah, well my uncle killed himself and I just got back from the funeral so I'm not really sorry for not being town carry no. 1 nor in the best emotional state this game.
I'm sorry for your loss.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 350, Wickedestjr wrote:Unvote: ConManMick
Starting to think that I might've been wrong about this.
More tomorrow...
That post again ...
Wicked Take 2 wrote:Unvote: ConManMick
Starting to think that the momentum is shifting and my reads are no longer popular.
More tomorrow...-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 363, Rob14 wrote:In post 350, Wickedestjr wrote:Unvote: ConManMick
Starting to think that I might've been wrong about this.
More tomorrow...
That post again ...
Wicked Take 2 wrote:Unvote: ConManMick
Starting to think that the momentum is shifting and my reads are no longer popular.
More tomorrow...
That post again ...-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 353, ProHawk wrote:Rob kill the elitism bs. You know I'm not that good at this game. Exponentially less when I'm lazy phone posting
Not being elitist. I actually think you're good at this game, based on past games we've been in together. Which are quite numerous, here and on skype.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 361, Antihero wrote:what the fuck are you talking about?
Nvm, momentarily forgot about unlimited votes, as I did when I wrote that note. My bad.
I was thinking he was questioning why you were not voting him (i.e. why had someone else drawn your vote over him earlier). That's a valid question, but with unlimited votes, you're right that it doesn't really make sense.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 374, Papa Zito wrote:In post 371, Rob14 wrote:I mean what's better - one quick mislynch or being seen as town? As scum, I'd always choose seeming town and let the mislynches follow.
In a game this size, "one quick mislynch" is really beneficial for the bad guys. Which is why I've got some major misgivings about your slot.
also given the fact he's got a wagon going the "town cred" argument falls apart
I obviously can't defend my predecessor's actions, but I don't think they should be considered by people judging my alignment. He's been banned as a troll account. He directly stated on the wiki here that he is a "liar and troll", and that he deliberately lied and acted against wincon in games. I imagine that's what went on here. He was tanking the game for the "fun" of it.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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And keep in mind that town has lots of lynches in this game. One quick lynch in a normal 9p is a lot more important than one quick lynch in a double day 9p. Scum have to survive, at a minimum, four lynches to win. Going after one quick lynch at the expense of being in a more risky position with at least three lynches to go is practically suicide.
I don't think that wagon is indicative of anything much. I'm not treating those on/off it any differently, and I suggest others do the same. Looking only at the four players that were on the wagon pre-hammer is ignoring half the player list that could just as easily be scum. I'm just not convinced by the logic that we should only look there for now.-
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So first, the vote all thing. He stood by it. I don't see why scum wouldn't claim a rookie mistake in an unfamiliar setup and back down here when pressured. Instead, he sticks with it to the end. Say he's scum for a second. The lynch doesn't go through; then he's gained nothing. The lynch does go through; then eyes are on him for his voting strategy. I don't agree with his voting strategy, but I see no scum motivation here, and his voting pattern is a significant portion (the only one?) of why people are voting him. So to those voting Con: Where's the scum motivation? If you're voting him for another reason, explain it to me, because it got lost somewhere along the way.
In post 167, ConManMick wrote:I like your recent play.
With regards to tere, it occurs to me that neither myself nor Kaboose ever answered this:
In post 44, Tere wrote:Kaboose and ConManMick, why have you chosen to make everyone else hated?
At the time I did it because RVS shenanigans. I began unvoting players based on whether or not I thought they could be scum, and left the other votes (a total of four, I believe) because I figured those players could go either way.
And for that matter, what's not convincing about that? You may not agree with it, but I see it as having town motivation. He's working by process of elimination.
239 comes from town. I think TTH is also town, but Con is right to question him on a "joke" comment from page 3 when we were out of RVS obviously. Overall, I think Con is town, or at least don't see reason to believe he's scum that occurred prior to his wagon.
I did notice some more recent stuff I'm confused by, though.@Con - can you explain your naked vote on ProHawk? What is your current read on TTH, who you wordlessly unvoted?
And what the heck is going on in this? What was your goal/motivation in posting that?
In post 367, ConManMick wrote:
Does he now? And when I don't, will ProHawk be exonerated? How will your reads change from there?-
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In post 387, Papa Zito wrote:what the hell does that quote thing even mean
Taking a quote and altering it to demonstrate my thoughts on the poster's motivations. I don't believe Wicked is sincere in backtracking. I think he was questioning how safe his reads were. It's a rhetorical device I employ every so often, and I do it as town and scum.-
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In post 390, Papa Zito wrote:So essentially your entire townread on him is built on the assumption that the rest of us are scumreading him for the vote all strategy.
Correct me if I'm wrong here.
Completely wrong. I'm disagreeing with the votes on him and pressure on him for his vote all strategy, but I've provided multiple posts of his where I see town motivation. I don't see scum motivation in anything he's done.-
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In post 392, Wickedestjr wrote:You're trying to equate the behavior of Con/Kaboose with Kublai, when their behaviors were, actually, noticeably different in my opinion. At the time, I thought Kublai's vote was slightly more likely to be coming from scum because he put two players at L-1 without announcing. Sure, it was ridiculous of Kaboose and Con to vote for everyone, but this didn't strike me as suspicious - and it wasn't nearly as careless because they didn't even put anyone at L-1 (they also didn't know that Kublai would cast L-1 votes). You've made it clear that Con's "vote: all" didn't bother you, so why does it have to bother me? Later in your catchup post, you admit that Lhix was the only person to blame for the quick hammer and the previous votes wouldn't have known that he would do that - so why can't I follow that same philosophy here and ignore Con/Kab?
You can think whatever you want. I only care that you're consistent, since inconsistencies tend to come from scum who aren't genuinely scumhunting. I do not believe you were consistent in your application of a scumhunting strategy to Con/Kaboose vs Kublai. Am I wrong?
In post 392, Wickedestjr wrote:I considered this too, but then I looked at the times. You think he'd let his replacement request stand for six whole hours before ending the charade if it was all just a scum maneuver?
Does it make the maneuver more convincingly town to you? If so, why would scumnotdo it? Note the time stamp; he requested replacement over six hours of night time where the mod is unlikely to seek replacement and potential replacements are unlikely to be around, even if the mod is. He entered the request just before 2am and lifted a tiny bit after 7:30am. That's not risky in terms of replacing out, if that's your concern.
In post 392, Wickedestjr wrote:You should note that Lhix is the first person I voted. I didn't acknowledge the quick hammer because I saw no benefit to reacting to it. It annoyed me and I think it was very harmful, but complaining about it does no good after the fact. Furthermore, Lhix didn't appear open to receiving instruction for his bad move.
This is a valid point. Fair enough.
In post 392, Wickedestjr wrote:You didn't know about the quick hammer when you first replaced in?
Nope. I offered to be ETL's replacement-on-call because she asked me to be in the game itself. I could not yet commit to being in the game, as I'm in the process of applying to grad schools, but I decided to /in to replace hoping that the replacement wouldn't be needed until later in the game. That maybe was a bad idea, because I still have large time commitments at the moment. But anyway, back on point, I hadn't been reading along and was not aware that my slot was a troll.
I must have misunderstood your vote on Kublai, then, because it sounded like his speaking style is what you were taking issue with. Care to explain it more? You absolutely did defend yourself with "this is how I always talk" in #175, responding to the claim that your speaking was overly formal.
This is a decent defense. Now show the same dedication to scum-hunting ... what's your current reads? Where do you think we should be lynching today?-
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In post 403, Rob14 wrote:In post 390, Papa Zito wrote:So essentially your entire townread on him is built on the assumption that the rest of us are scumreading him for the vote all strategy.
Correct me if I'm wrong here.
Completely wrong. I'm disagreeing with the votes on him and pressure on him for his vote all strategy, but I've provided multiple posts of his where I see town motivation. I don't see scum motivation in anything he's done.
This post from Zito is bothering me, actually. Could you explain how you came away with that interpretation from what I wrote? Maybe this is instinctive OMGUS, but surely this is an attempt to strawman. I have a hard time believing you genuinely read my entire post and only came away with an understanding of the first couple lines.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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1) The last two lines you included address town motivation, which you're glossing over.
2) Volume of text =/= impact on read. The last paragraph directly address town motivation and so is more important to my read than not being convinced by the arguments against him (which is the entire first block). The reason the first block is so large is that it takes a bit of writing to show how one works through motivations, which is apparently needed because other people have failed to do so.
3) Point out where, prior to my post, people gave convincing reasons to vote Con not based on his voting strategy. If it exists, I missed it.
4) Your previous post:
In post 390, Papa Zito wrote:So essentially your entire townread on him is built on the assumption that the rest of us are scumreading him for the vote all strategy.
Correct me if I'm wrong here.
This attempts to characterize what I'm doing as addressing arguments against Con, not developing a read on him. That's just blatantly incorrect. I looked at the arguments against Con to determine whether I think the relevant posts from Con come from scum. I concluded they do not. That's different than only considering the arguments against Con and not actually trying to read him, which is akin to an accusation of bussing or white-knighting.-
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We have two days until deadline. There's still time to explore options, but not to start a wagon from scratch. I'll be generous and say that {Con, ProHawk, Wicked} are all viable options to consider (even though Wicked is hovering on the bubble of viable), but none of {TTH, Zito} is happening. Zito might happen Day 2. I need to re-read his slot, which I should have time to do over the night phase. I'm torn between his recent posts re: myself being misguided scum-hunting or attempts to strawman me, and I think I need to step back and look at what his slot has done towardotherpeople to cut down on my bias there. I don't think I'm seeing straw-men due to unintentional OMGUS, but it's a possibility.-
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In post 419, RadiantCowbells wrote:Eh, I'm pretty sure either both scum are on CMM already or you're the last scum.
In post 420, ConManMick wrote:I don't know about both, but certainly at least one, I suspect. I'm a pretty safe wagon to be caught on if I am lynched, from the looks of things.
RC: I would suspect scum of being on Con's wagon.
Con: My wagon is soooooooooooo safe.
not alignment indicative, but pretty lol-
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In post 421, Rob14 wrote:We have two days until deadline. There's still time to explore options, but not to start a wagon from scratch. I'll be generous and say that {Con, ProHawk, Wicked} are all viable options to consider (even though Wicked is hovering on the bubble of viable), but none of {TTH, Zito} is happening. Zito might happen Day 2. I need to re-read his slot, which I should have time to do over the night phase. I'm torn between his recent posts re: myself being misguided scum-hunting or attempts to strawman me, and I think I need to step back and look at what his slot has done towardotherpeople to cut down on my bias there. I don't think I'm seeing straw-men due to unintentional OMGUS, but it's a possibility.
I meant to say this post is @RC.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 437, Wickedestjr wrote:
I alreadyRob13 wrote:Surely you can give rationale for your strong scum read on Anti before re-reading him?didgive my rationale for that read. I literally just gave an in-depth explanation on this page.
While he is my strongest scum read, I never said he was aRob13 wrote:Why do you need to read to find reasons if he's already strong scum?strongscum read.
And I've already answered this question too. Kublai's posts gave me a bad feeling, so I wanted to check his meta to see if I got that same bad feeling from some of his previous games. If this is how he always posts, then I would unvote. If this is a legitimate scum tell for him, then it would be nice to have that knowledge - my scum read would strengthen.
I need to reread Antihero because I am voting him for his predecessor's play but haven't seen anything particularly telling from him on my initial read through.
Is there a problem here? Just because I'm scum reading someone now, that doesn't mean I'm going to stop making an effort to figure out their alignment.
Sorry, having trouble keeping track of who replaced into who's slot. I wasn't connecting your discussion of Kublai with Anti.
Wicked can move into my town column. His reads are backed up with actual scum-hunting, even if I don't agree with it.-
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In post 440, ProHawk wrote:Rob, why do you consider Wicked a viable wagon?
Literally only current number of votes and past number of votes. There are a substantial number of people who are currently or have considered Wicked-scum to be a thing, as evidence by vote counts, so it's not implausible that a lynch could occur on that slot within 2 days. That's as opposed to slots that have had little to no pressure on them this day. I don't consider it viable for us to fully form, discuss, and push a lynch on a slot that hasn't been the subject of much pressure/discussion so far.
Having said that, I would not vote for Wicked today. I didn't like what I saw in my catch-up, but I've liked what I've seen since then. I tend to prioritize my gut and reads that develop through interaction over catch-up reads.-
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If you mean popularity as in how popular the idea X is scum is, that's literally how every lynch is decided in every game of mafia ever. It's the basic lynch mechanic - a majority vote.
If you're claiming that people are voting based on a popularity contest rather than reads, that's silly. I'm generally abrasive and annoying. I'd have way more votes under that scenario.
Of the following two scenarios, which is more likely to find scum? Which is more likely to have us miss something or make a mistake?
1) Lynch among people who have been discussed thoroughly.
2) Quick-lynch among people who haven't been discussed thoroughly.
If you can bring up an option outside of what I consider viable and discuss thoroughly in 44 hours, be my guest. I just don't want to rush into a lynch on someone I believe I can get a better and more complete read on were they to remain in the game. Zito definitely falls into that category. I might be able to go for an RC lynch, but I think he falls into that category as well since he's been dealing with real-life stuff lately and hasn't been around as much. TTH and Anti seem town to me, but Anti falls into the category of wanting to see more as well. And that leaves the three people who have been the subject of attention so far this lynch phase: Wicked, Con, and you.-
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Again, I recommend looking at RC's fake blow-up. He "replaces out" over nothing at 1am or so, then comes back at 8am and announces he's staying in the game. There was zero risk of being replaced between 1am and 8am. The mod wouldn't be online, and even if she was, there's no way she'd be able to confirm a replacement in those hours. It was a very low-risk play for scum, and it was designed to remove pressure. It worked.-
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Turns out there isn't much to read.
RC and Zito, both of you need to explain in detail your read on Con. I'm not getting itat all, and neither of you bothered to explain how your thinking goes beyond the "he voted all the people" logic of early day 1.
VOTE: RC, for the stuff I mentioned in my catch-up yesterday mostly, plus his awful read/lack of reasoning on Con. Zito still doesn't sit right with me as well. I'm going {RC, Zito} as scum team.-
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In post 506, Papa Zito wrote:1. My CMM vote was unexplained, not terrible.
Skimming through Zito's ISO, I think the above quote highlights his entire play so far. He hasn't explained anything. He's shown no evidence of developing reads. He's been asking lots of questions, even some very good questions, but he doesn't do anything with the answers. He's not trying to use any information he gathers to push lynches. He's not engaging in a dialogue.
It reads like fake scum-hunting to me. Decent scum knows to ask questions and be engaged, but decent town would do thatand then use the information they gain to find scum. I'm not seeing that at all in his ISO.-
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Zito, you're saying the same thing as Wicked but coming to a crazy conclusion. The usefulness of meta to determine who is town and scum directly is questionable. I'd lean on the "not useful" side of that argument. That's not what is being argued here, though.
If Con exhibits trait X in this game and also exhibited trait X in his last five town games, then you can't say Con is scum because he exhibits trait X. History would prove you wrong on that point, because in fact Canhasexhibited Trait X systematically as town. Does that mean he must be town? No. But it does mean he can't be scumbecause of trait X. That is the argument Wicked is making, and it's an undeniably useful purpose for meta. No-one can dispute that the argument that "X therefore scum" is contradicted by confirmed instances of "X and town". It's an application of basic logic.
And this isa pointless theory discussion. It's an example of you shooting down information that contradicts the rationale for your reads. You're finding rationales to fit your reads, not fitting your reads to what's happening in game. That's like "How to Tell Someone is Scum 101". Can wenotpleasevote here instead of RC? I'm not against an RC lynch, but this is the sure thing. This is rapidly approaching 100% certainty with each scummy post.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 562, Papa Zito wrote:Therealtell here is the way Rob's waiting for Wicked to commit before he does so himself.
HA. I committed in #537, before Wicked even entered the thread today with any commentary today.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 560, Papa Zito wrote:If I systematically shoot down meta in my town games, then my shooting meta down here is not scummy. How's that base logic.
There's meta and then there's basic logic. This isn't arguable. You're not scummy for disagreeing with meta. You're scummy for ignoring evidence that your read is objectively incorrect.
If you ignore the evidence systematically in your town games, then yes, that would make you not scummy for it. It would also make you shit at the game. I do not believe you're shit at the game.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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In post 582, Wickedestjr wrote:Rob, there is much more interest in lynching RC today... You should re-vote for him...
Your un-vote looks pretty bad.
I'll revote if it becomes necessary due to deadline, but I'm happy to take heat if it means even a single person looks at Zito more critically. He's scum, and I stand behind that.
In post 585, Antihero wrote:In post 582, Wickedestjr wrote:Rob, there is much more interest in lynching RC today... You should re-vote for him...
Your un-vote looks pretty bad.
AND you haven't let up on your rc scumread
AND the other person your voting isn't voting rc
You're going to need to convince me it's optimalNOTto pursue my best scumread if you want me to revote RC. Where do you stand on Zito? Will you vote him in the next lynch phase if I compromise on my lesser read now?-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Like, I'm tired of being the one who compromises in other games and then has my scum reads survive until they win. That happened a lot prior to my return, and it got annoying. Why do I have to be the one to compromise when I believe Zito is the best option, and it's not near deadline? I'd rather use the full two weeks and either convince you Zito is scum or at least get you closer to that realization so you're willing to off him in Day 2, Lynch 2.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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I didn't understand what Zito was arguing until he posted in this game day. My 558 is a direct response to his spoiler in 555, which is the first place he clearly communicated his point, at least that I saw. Looking back, the only instance of him hinting at taking that position is a frowning smilie face, and I certainly didn't realize the stance he was taking based on just that.
Also worth noting my push on Zito began in 537/538 with the fact that he hasn't contributed anything this game, not just 558. Not to mention the many times I was concerned with his BS strawman arguments toward me in Day 1.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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Yeah, this is pretty much where I check out of the game.
Zito's scum, I've told you all why, and it's pretty much on you to not be idiots. I'm not going to stay very engaged if all I get is blank stares and my scum read taking pot shots at me without being held accountable for their complete lack of content.
This game is frustrating.-
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Rob14 Jack of All Trades
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