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Post #80 (isolation #1) » Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:54 am
Postby chilledtea »
Well that was relatively quick.
I think firestarter and lovelygiant are scum.
The reasons being, I think suzune is not scum and genuinely made a mistake in understanding her role. I think Maestro is town. He has been pretty aggressive and also sensible in his approach to this game. I think itlepip is town because of his initial reads of suzune.
It isn't that firestarter's starting post (3) was that indicative. But by process of elimination, and also because of what he has posted till now, I don't get the confidence from him that he is town.
In post 80, chilledtea wrote:process of elimination, and also because of what he has posted till now
WTF "process of elimination" how? Also, FS has made 2 posts since his opening post. Buddying and a leaning-Scum read on somebody who's been completely inactive, out of thin air. Can we lynch this slot please? It is
NOT
Town.
Also @tea, I understand how you can
independently
read both myself and itlepip as Town given our
independent
reactions to the Suzune "slip" issue, but how do you reconcile those reads and then conclude with the assertion that [Maestro, chilledtea, itlepip, Suzune] are all Town? If so, that also seems far too easy to me to be true, and I wouldn't trust it even if you did have much to back it up.
@itlepip: you still think Suzune slipped, correct? If so, who is her partner?
PEDIT: Why are you voting lovelygiant?
Do you guys realize how amazingly easy it is for lg to be scum, and lurk out an important phase of the game
while
also avoiding suspicion? THAT is why the vote is on him. A couple of more and maybe he will be here to defend himself.
As far as why not firestarter, he has posted 2 times. There isn't much to read there.
Process of elimination means I eliminate who I think are town and then consider the remaining as scum. Easy enough? These are initial reads, not something that I am 100% sure of anyways.
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Post #137 (isolation #10) » Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:45 am
Postby chilledtea »
I still think lg is scum. Firestarter is probably town, I like Maestro for town. Which means one of suzzune and itlepip are scum, and I think it might be itlepip. Although I agreed with his initial read of suzzune.
LG coming back after my vote on him and then buddying me. I don't like that.
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Post #169 (isolation #14) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:20 am
Postby chilledtea »
In post 167, Nahdia wrote:Sure. Then get itlepip tomorrow because I'm that freaking sure I solved this game on just one read through.
You think itlepip is someone who is going for the "low hanging fruit" or easy target? Considering that it would bite him back, I would say scum would be very careful in this mode. They have to play a flawless game.
Two of Firestarter, you, maestro, itlepip are scum. Maestro has gone quiet now but that can be said about everyone. I have this strange feeling that itlepip might be town.
I will re-read the thread again and see what I find.
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Post #172 (isolation #15) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:28 am
Postby chilledtea »
In post 171, Nahdia wrote:I think itlepip thought lynching Suzune was going to be way easier and then when the wagon dissipated wasn't sure what to do so he just sat on it and pouted, knowing the vote wasn't actually gonna happen and wanting to seem "genuine" by not switching off.
You know, I like you for now. Your clear-mindedness regarding this is good. For now I will consider you town.
If you were to choose between Firestarter and Maestro, who is scum?
I agree wth maestro. There was a definite intention behind that post. There was no reason to say it unless it hoped with out stack the deck in his favour. Moves like thet are calculated and considering the same game sizzle we cannot afford to make a mistake. Such a move threatens the town. Therefore, I question a scum motive as well because such an antic benifits the scum rather then the town.
I think his logic is sound. Therefore I believe he plays like me. Whether people know it or not is not my concern. We have never played before therefore I did not know it. You attempt then to predisposition players into your meta. That is something I do not appreciate.
This just felt weird to me. Why the need to point out that we cannot afford to make a mistake? It felt like she was trying to prove her "towniness".
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Post #194 (isolation #24) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:02 am
Postby chilledtea »
There is a 66% chance a person is town in this game. And that is if you pick them randomly. If someone seems in sync with your thoughts then it is better to go along with their thoughts, no?
Anyways. If I am scum, I would be super dumb to try and buddy someone like this. Like my chances of getting lynched is 16% and that is if you pick me randomly. This is why I thought that scum would try to not be too aggressive.
chilledtea looks particularly optimistic throughout this whole exchange and the dialogue I had with itlepip rang way more Town than Scum to me. Nahdia - what're your thoughts on that bit? I can go find the part I'm talking about if you didn't already read it in detail.
PEDIT: LOL WRONG in this game in particular we should be Townhunting - FS using PoE and voting me is the only thing keeping me from considering him confScum. Town should be looking for reasons (any reason, really) to call somebody Town in a game where the Scum would normally be so closely linked. They'll be trying to hide it with all their might. That's why I'm not sold on itlepip/chilledtea and it's the main reason I'm less sold on itlepip in general (mainly @Nahdia). I had him in my townpile and you in my Scumpile because lovelygiant was a lurky fucksack. I will lynch {Fire Starter, chilledtea} today, no exceptions.
PEDIT: Nahdia, itlepip is Town. Fucking work with me.
We should be doing both townhunting and scumhunting. Townhunting is relatively easier than scumhunting.
That is what I meant. Go back and read what I wrote.
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Post #206 (isolation #28) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:15 am
Postby chilledtea »
Look. If you are going to consider me scum because I am trying to work with town in unity because that is "buddying", then you don't even deserve me man. Like you just don't.
In post 205, Nahdia wrote:chilledtea's vote on itlepip was opportunistic as heck considering they were saying they townread them and scumread my slot like 5 posts prior lol.
This is another fucking strike against itlepip being Scum, dude. Are you reading your own posts?
It was making a point. She told me to vote him. Maybe she wanted to test me to she if I was itlepip's partner or some thing.
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Post #217 (isolation #32) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:25 am
Postby chilledtea »
Because he thinks that itlepip is conf!scum if he doesn't hammer me. Makes no sense in any way at all. He thinks I am itlepip's partner in that particular post, but before he said that itlepip is probably town.
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Post #228 (isolation #37) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:52 am
Postby chilledtea »
The best lie is the one that is mixed with a hint of truth. Just because a person is known to say truth, doesn't mean he cannot lie.
Similarly, sometimes, scum will "defend" even actual townies or look like defending to get town credits at the end of the day. There were a couple of options for him left - he could have left her alone - in which case he could have casted suspicion on himself because of maybe lurking or whatever. The other option was to slyly go for her lynch - now this is all assuming that suzzune is town. If he knows that she is town he also knows that she messed up in her understanding her role. Defending someone might come naturally to a scum like that if he feels that jumping on her bandwagon might look opportunistic.
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Post #233 (isolation #38) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:04 am
Postby chilledtea »
I ask you this, is it worth getting in the scumradar of the rest of the town on next day to get a mislynch? People play to their win condition and this will always revolve around their heads.
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Post #236 (isolation #39) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:09 am
Postby chilledtea »
Even then, I think somewhere inside scum will feel that "this is too early, maybe I should just act" or something along those lines. I think if it was at the end of the deadline then that could have been different.
In post 218, chilledtea wrote:By self-voting I made it one vote easier for scum to get a mislynch. Look at Maestro - he is basically licking his lips with opportunism in that post.
Self voting is always scummy. A townie would fight to the end in order to help the team win. Town is a team.
If Firestarter does not hammer I will.
So where's the hammer?
Also, where does firestarter come in here?
Why does firestarter have to hammer instead of you?
Anyways, no. There are some moments where self-vote makes sense. I think that two of Maestro, Firestarter and you are scum. Nahdia and itlepip are prob town.
It is also likely that you and Maestro are a team.
Myself + Anyone bc I'm town
itlepip + Maestro
itlepip + Suzune
chilledtea + Suzune
Maestro + chilledtea
Fire Starter can be partners with p much anyone let's lynch 'em
I wanted to refer to this. From your perspective it may make sense but remember that you defended Suzzune too. So it is actually possible that you and Suzzune are a team.
Lovelygiant also thought that Suzzune is town.
Anyways, I am not a big fan of "look who is defending and consider them scum" I mean, if we have town reads we will defend them, right?
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Post #249 (isolation #43) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:04 pm
Postby chilledtea »
Okay, ignoring the "buddying" nonsense, I feel like itlepip is town. I went through his ISO once again.
I think that Maestro + Suzzune is the likely team. Suzzune giving up and apologising to the town is the only thing that is making me unsure of her. Which brings to a good question asked by Nahdia (why would Maestro defend suzzune).
Nahdia, apart from possible teams PoE, why do you want to lynch firestarter?
I would also like to hear from firestarter. And itlepip's case. That is very important.
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Post #251 (isolation #44) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:54 pm
Postby chilledtea »
If we were to assume that suzzune is town (which is likely because there is risk in faking emotions like that as scum - difficult to imagine in this setup) :
Maestro defends Suzzune
Itlepip attacks Suzzune
Firestarter defends Suzzune
Nahdia defends Suzzune
SS attacked Suzzune - but I didn't think much of it - in similar ways to lovely.
There was at least one scum who defended Suzzune. Itlepip and SS are the only ones who went offensive actually - so the theory that Suzzune was likely going to get lynched doesn't seem valid.
I feel a lot better about Nahdia so lets take it out.
At least one scum in {Firestarter, Maestro}. That is the conclusion I am getting to.
If itlepip is town then both firestarter and maestro are scum. If itlepip is scum then it is one of them.
Re-reading Maestro's ISO makes me like him. I don't remember if I thought he was town or scum initially. But he got paranoid about SS and I am going to consider that, that was not fake.
Under this analysis, a team of Firestarter + itlepip is possible. However this is under several assumptions :
1) Suzzune is town.
2) I am town (obv).
The only thing I don't like about itlepip is he actually changed his viewpoints regarding Suzzune after initially saying that under no circumstance he was going to change his vote. He was confident that Suzzune is scum and has scumslipped. It was under that assumption that he thought Maestro and Suzzune were scumpartners. If he were to change his thoughts regarding Suzzune then his thoughts regarding Maestro and others - specifically SS (or myself) will change.
We can see that firestarter is enjoying the show from the sidelines. What made me suspicious of lovely was exactly that, and nahdia is active.
UNVOTE:
I am personally ok with firestarter lynch. I am not so sure of Maestro now. I guess in a fit of emotion I thought Maestro was indeed scum, but if he was considering itlepip as scum initially and only changed his views because itle thought I was obvscum, then it makes sense for him to consider itlepip as scum if he didn't hammer me.
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Post #252 (isolation #45) » Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:59 pm
Postby chilledtea »
In post 250, Suzune wrote:I believe there is some hang up like l, x player was going to prove themselves by hammering. I was not certain they were aware of said fact so I figured I would wait so they could prove themself.
Firestarter didn't post in this thread for the last three days.
Where does he come in the picture? Also which player wanted to prove himself? Also I am not at L-1 now. I unvoted and nahdia unvoted so I am L-3. How is anyone going to hammer anyone?
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Post #256 (isolation #46) » Tue Mar 22, 2016 1:21 am
Postby chilledtea »
Hey, you are the one who is saying it doesn't make sense from town. Which means you need to work on understanding what makes sense and what doesn't.
I think it is acceptable if reads fluctuate a lot on day 1. I have very little to go on, and until the self-vote there wasn't much happening. Literally the only things that happened this game is suzzune misunderstanding her role/faking her misunderstanding and me "buddying" and self-voting.
Also if I re-read the thread and have a different opinion that makes me scum? Appeal to emotion means something other than what you have assumed.
I also withdrew my self-vote because, it is kinda against my win condition. Your argument regarding 66% and 16% is dumb because it comes from the perspective that I am already scum. That is classic confirmation bias. You are saying that I am using them as excuse, but you KNOW that it is still correct.
Yeah, 66% is good enough. Maybe that is why reads are fluctuating.
Meanwhile Mr. ittlepip "chilled is scum because his reads are fluctuating" what is your opinion regarding suzzune? What is your opinion regarding Something_Smart?
What is your opinion regarding Maestro?
LOL. Your reads have fluctuated as well. It means nothing. This is day 1 not day 5 where "reads are fluctuating" is a scumtell. I mean, I understand fluctuating reads are a scumtell but when there is no reason for the fluctuation. It is also important to understand how strongly one is feeling about their scumreads.
Maestro was the only one I think I genuinely fluctuated on. Like I did think he was scum for his statement. But now I don't.
Also, other than PoE there isn't much you can do anyway on page 4. I find it amusing that you think I will have ton load of evidence regarding my town reads when nobody does.
In post 50, itlepip wrote:That doesn't answer the question why are you certain that Suzune is a mislynch? You are doing the exact thing you are accusing SS of by preparing a lynch tomorrow of SS assuming Suzune is a miss WHICH SHE ISN'T!
Stop preparing a lynch tomorrow if you think suzune just slipped. I agree that in a normal game connection can be drawn between Suzune and SS but not in a game where the first scum lynch just ends the fricken game.
Pedit: Holy shit dude. Scratch what I said about Suzune/SS I'm pretty sure its you and suzune given how hard you are doubtcasting that lynch.
In post 176, chilledtea wrote:Using that logic scum should be Maestro and itlepip. But it's rarely ever that easy.
No because Maestro is the person that fricken killed my Suzune thing in the first place, which is why I am pretty sure that he is scum with suzune and just no one is seeing this but me. SS fricken saw it too and was arguing that he was the one that actually pulled the slip by playing along with it or whatever.
Nahdia, who the hell is my partner, cause this game feels like I've been talking to fricken walls.
In post 191, itlepip wrote:Okay ignoring Suzune for a moment Chilledtea is pretty obv scum here. This is the play where scum buddy someone to try to get a tertiary ML and then when they catch flak they vote there to prove they aren't partners. CT never had any good reason for town reading me and is just WKing
Something Smart is scum.
In post 235, itlepip wrote:If maestro is scum not with suzune, he just blames the miss on me or SS and gets a free win. I figured out why other people think suzune is town, still not as convinced.
SS is town again.
See, I can do that too.
I mean, the only people you have left to scum read are nahdia and yourself. And probably because lovelygiant was lurking/inactive.
In post 249, chilledtea wrote:Okay, ignoring the "buddying" nonsense, I feel like itlepip is town. I went through his ISO once again.
I think that Maestro + Suzzune is the likely team. Suzzune giving up and apologising to the town is the only thing that is making me unsure of her. Which brings to a good question asked by Nahdia (why would Maestro defend suzzune).
Nahdia, apart from possible teams PoE, why do you want to lynch firestarter?
I would also like to hear from firestarter. And itlepip's case. That is very important.
whops didn't mean to quote that. but since I did; Maestro and Suzune aren't a team.
I get similar feeling but is there a specific reason why you think so ?
As far as firestarter lynch is considered, yes, I think I am ok with that.
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Post #266 (isolation #50) » Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:38 am
Postby chilledtea »
Either itlepip is scum, or he doesn't understand my PoV and doesn't want to.
There is always a higher chance someone is town. This is the truth. Saying "you are not allowed" doesn't change the fact.
He seems upset by the fact that my PoE came at a time when there was little information available. I fail to understand why he thinks my PoE was concrete and unchangeable?
As far as Suzzune is concerned, initially I did read her as town. If I did consider her scum it was because of PoE and Maestro. Like, I was theorizing.
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Post #292 (isolation #54) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:38 am
Postby chilledtea »
I don't mind getting lynched, but I am town. You have 2 days so if you guys want to go with me so be it. This time around I won't even self-vote so you will have a good indication of who is on my wagon and on which position.
I think the scum team is ittlepip and firestarter. It makes a lot of sense from my perspective.
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Post #294 (isolation #55) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:41 am
Postby chilledtea »
In post 287, Nahdia wrote:But what worries me about chilledtea is... he said he's only willing to lynch the other people i scumread. if he's scum, who is his partner..? he voted Fire Starter, so likely not them unless he's playin' dangerously. itlepip made a big case on them... Maestro was voting him at L-1 and didn't unvote. which only leaves Suzune????? but i think she's town?????????
i mean maybe it's a chilledtea Fire Bringer team. that could be a thing! chilledtea did only vote him with 1 other vote on him but... eeh.
Lol I am town. This is good analysis actually.
Let us experiment by taking firestarter to L-1 and then ask ittlepip to hammer.
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Post #314 (isolation #58) » Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:08 pm
Postby chilledtea »
Guys, if you don't lynch Firestarter/Ittlepip/the soldier, then lynch me. I am serious. This guys want to keep me for day 2 for a win. It makes complete sense to me to keep the scummiest guy for day 2 while going for someone weaker on day 1.