Micro 618 {Over}

[Chip Butty]

I have read and understand my Role PM.

[Chip Butty]

VOTE: Karnos for soon-to-be-voting BulletNLynchProof.

[Chip Butty]

Game will start when your 48 hours have elapsed, or we have 7 confirmations. (Whichever comes first.) I will not count votes or topic requests made prior to then, however, day will begin once one of those two conditions has been fulfilled regardless of whether I'm here to announce it or not.

/Confirm

Votes probably won't count until ranger says so

I'm reading this as 7 have confirmed, Day has started, votes count.

[Chip Butty]

I just want to clarify, and I know SOMEONE will jump on me for this, but it is a genuine question about the mechanics:

If werevolves have no factional NK, and only kill Town through lynching and vengekill resulting from lynching, can't Town actually peacefully co-exist with werewolves indefinitely, as long as we never lynch? I mean, with no NK, they pose no threat to Town unless we lynch.

[Chip Butty]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: MURDERCAT for accusing me of making him look dumb, when he actually made

himself

look dumb.

[Chip Butty]

Werewolves control the vote if town doesn't vote so it doesn't work. Read the rule I posted above, it's important.

A-HA! GOTCHA! Now

you've

made

me

look dumb, which is EXACTLY what you accused me of doing to you. That's hypocrisy, which is a scum trait. My vote stands.

[Chip Butty]

Someone please vote BDT for blathering.

[Chip Butty]

Why switch votes in RVS?

Comedic purposes.

[Chip Butty]

I'm reading Realeo as Town, but I'm pretty certain Sick is scum.

[Chip Butty]

I'm reading Realeo as Town, but I'm pretty certain Sick is scum.

is this an OMGUS?

I would like you to address my points. why you are not playing as your town meta.

It's a half-OMGUS, since I am only OMGUSing one of your heads. My RVS technique is evolving, thanks to an ongoing game I can't discuss. I feel like I have more of an insight into RVS now, and am approaching it a bit differently. Why are you so keen to get us out of RVS?

[Chip Butty]

VOTE: Chip Butty

for potentially carnivorous and to be honest, I have a hunch that BulletNLynchproof is town.

~ Realeo

You're voting me for "potentially carnivorous"? Have you looked at your scumbuddy MURDERCAT'S avatar?

Also, did you mean to tie your vote on me to your hunch about BNLP? And is your hunch based on his superior math skills? As far as I know, that's NAI.

@Sick head: It's the weekend, dawg. Chill. Discussion will pick up once people are in a position to steal from their employers by playing at woork.

[Chip Butty]

The reason I want to get out of RVS:

the point of RVS is to generate the discussion, and the discussion is not happening.

Staying in the RVS is not Pro-Town.


~ Sickofit

Um, we can't get out of RVS until we have somewhere to do - i.e. someone picks up a semi-serious lead to follow. If you've got one of those, by all means lead the way...

[Chip Butty]

*somewhere to

go

^

[Chip Butty]

I agree with this.
I'm still slightly reading chipbutty as scum still.

@Chipbutty

I like the analytic style better. It's a better town style then what you are doing now. You shouldn't change it IMO

I guess the game you're referring to mainly is Open 640, the one we played in together, right? If you go back and look at that, you'll see that I did place two joke votes at the start (Kappy, Aneninen) and, more importantly, that I came out of RVS thinking both were scum, when they were not. Also, I thought you were scum, and prob Shotty too, and you were both Town too. So, I'm being a little more cautious. Also, as you and others have pointed out, there hasn't been a great deal of public posting, so there really isn't much to go on yet. If you see something you think is scummy, and it isn't me, by all means point it out and I'll look at it. If it

is

me, I'll try to alleviate your concerns as best I can.

[Chip Butty]

i was referring to all the meta on you i can find.

Nothing has really pinged me yet. Again, I'm hoping things will pick up after the weekend. In Newbie 1704, I again had Kappy to get me started. That time, he WAS scum. I think he is one of those players who just looks scummy whether they are or not.

Those are my only two completed games here, so it's all I can discuss.

[Chip Butty]

I have a theory, but the theory is (1) not conclusive (2)normally, I would be glad to explain it, but explaining the theory will be synonymous with [redacted] (3) who the hell picks up read from RVS?

Hence, the reason I used the word "hunch" =P.

~Realeo

I guess if anything looks weird so far, it is this...

1. No-one is expecting a conclusive theory out of RVS. That shouldn't stop you from posting it.

2. WTF?

3. You two heads need to discuss this among yourselves - as far as I can see, Realio is saying we can't pick up reads from RVS, while Sick is insisting that we do. personally, I agree with Sick on this.

There you go, Sick - analytical enough for you?

[Chip Butty]

Sick, do you know Real's reasoning for thinking BNLP is Town? Could one of you explain it please?

[Chip Butty]

I guess the game you're referring to mainly is Open 640, the one we played in together, right? If you go back and look at that, you'll see that I did place two joke votes at the start (Kappy, Aneninen) and, more importantly, that I came out of RVS thinking both were scum, when they were not. Also, I thought you were scum, and prob Shotty too, and you were both Town too.

So, I'm being a little more cautious

. Also, as you and others have pointed out, there hasn't been a great deal of public posting, so there really isn't much to go on yet. If you see something you think is scummy, and it isn't me, by all means point it out and I'll look at it. If it

is

me, I'll try to alleviate your concerns as best I can.

[quote="In

So, I'm being a little more cautious.

Town doesnt need to be cautious IMO. Scum needs to blend in more than town does.

Sick, do you know Real's reasoning for thinking BNLP is Town? Could one of you explain it please?

*deflects conversation away from himself*

1. Think it should be obvious from the sentence highlighted in green and what preceded it that I was specifically and clearly saying I am being more cautious in reading people as scum and expending time and effort going after them. Because it would obviously be better to spend that time and energy on real scum, rather than a Town who has managed to look scummy.

2. So, if I ask a question, I am "deflecting attention away from myself"? Are you going to interpret all questions that way? Or are you just trying to make me look bad? This is

very

reachy, and I am going to give you an official FOS for this post.

[Chip Butty]

Chip, does this mean you are scumreading Murder? If so, why? If not, why did you make this comment?

(I think its a joke about being carnivorous)

Yeah, MC is right - it was just a joke about our avatars. Not scumreading MC right now, but I see someone is pointing a finger at him (Sick, I think?) so will look at his ISO.

[Chip Butty]

Before we proceed, how many of you are Americans?

I came to my observation that a lot of people made shitty post during midnight--due to exhaustion--so knowing your time zone helps. You will be surprised that a staggering huge proportion of shitty argument came around midnight--so I need to take concern of your local time, are you mafia with stupid argument or are you town with exhausted brain?

I myself an Indonesian and that's +7 GMT

~Realeo

I've got to say, that takes the biscuit as one of the most bizarre posts I have ever seen in a game of Mafia. But, okay, Realeo - can you be more specific and point out just which midnight (in which specific timezone?) posts were so "shitty"?

[Chip Butty]

Sick, do you know Real's reasoning for thinking BNLP is Town? Could one of you explain it please?

I can't. It's dumb and has something to do with something else.

No-one is expecting a conclusive theory out of RVS. That shouldn't stop you from posting it.

If I am right, this is sarcasm right?

The reason I posted the hunch was

BNLP at L-2

. With experience of being put at L-1 at page 6, I feel compulsory to declare that I'm not going put him at L-1.

You two heads need to discuss this among yourselves - as far as I can see, Realio is saying we can't pick up reads from RVS, while Sick is insisting that we do. personally, I agree with Sick on this.

I don't care if our methodology conflicts--in fact, it's better thus we have more perspective,

as long we don't conflict in fos

.

I tr BNLP. He fos ChipButty and MURDERCAT. No conflict so far although we have to admit that we haven't have mutual agreement.
~Realeo

I'm not understanding much of this.

1. You (Realeo) continue to tr BNLP, but you can't say why and you admit the reason is "dumb"? And what is this "something else"? You seem to be saying you were concerned he was at L-2. Why? That's not such a big deal in RVS. He's not going to be quicklynched. Why did you find it "compulsory" to announce you weren't going to vote him to L-1? Why not just say that, rather than you had a hunch he is Town? Those are two different things.

2. No, I wasn't being sarcastic. I meant what I said - you can still post your theory, even if it is not conclusive at this point. I mean, lookat your other head, Sick, pointing fingers at me and MC. He probably goes too far, though, pointing fingers with too little justification. It just looks weird that you are not backing away from your "hunch" but you can't explain the basis of it.

[Chip Butty]

How was my vote scummy? It is consistent with my RVS vote from other games, where I vote someone for having a name suggesting a role that they don't have.

BTD, can you link to completed games with examples of this, please?

Are we looking for a claim from BTD here?

[Chip Butty]

I have to say, that wagon looks a bit quick, guys...

[Chip Butty]

VOTE: BTD That makes L-1 by my count.

Please don't hammer BTD immediately unless you are a wolf. Let him stew for a bit.

This is pinging me. Leaning scum on karnos now.

I'm also not happy to see RS on this wagon, given other reasons I am suspicious of them.

MC I'm not sure about. Will reserve judgement for now.

Would scum be so dumb as to have both jump so blatantly on a wagon so blatantly, and so early D1?

[Chip Butty]

VOTE: Karnos

Off the top of my head I can think of two games where scum went to a really early L-1, and I only have 5 completed games.

Links, please...

Plus I don't want him at L-1.

Why not? Do you think Town is likely to hammer? Do you think there is a scum not on the wagon yet?

This quick jump-off when challenged pings me...

[Chip Butty]

MC: Also, if you think there is a scum not on that wagon yet, do you think they would be likely to hammer and draw attention to themselves, especially after karnos asked Town not to hammer?

In short, do you really think BTD was in danger of being quicklynched? like I say, your quick hop off so soon after hopping on looks a little panicked...

[Chip Butty]

How was my vote scummy? It is consistent with my RVS vote from other games, where I vote someone for having a name suggesting a role that they don't have.

BTD, can you link to completed games with examples of this, please?

Are we looking for a claim from BTD here?

Look at Open 638. (Admittedly, I was scum but this is something I generally do regardless of alignment. I can't link the others as they are all ongoing).

But we can still go look at them, I guess...It's a pity the only example you can point to is a game in which you were scum. Not exactly a ringing endorsement...

[Chip Butty]

Is it from an ongoing game?

I can explain it but I can't explain it to you. I would like to keep it for a while and sickofit agrees with me that we should keep it for a while.

You may keep bugging me about this but neither sickofit nor me will explain it for the time being.

Earlier, it looked like you were suggesting you couldn't discuss it because it was from an ongoing game. Now you are saying you both just want to keep it to yourselves for undisclosed reasons? I dunno, seems odd to me...

[Chip Butty]

@ChipButty: When I was reading your ISO--it seem that you're too relaxed for a concept of people being put at L-1.

Granted, my concern at BPLP was a little bit premature--but your seem to be too relaxed about BTD wagon and start questioning MURDERCAT. I mean, there's only 7 days left at the clock so a lynch there won't be so weird.

Uh, no. Read my 121, 127, 128, 129 for concern at BTD being at L-1. And it's kind of weird that you accuse me of this, given that your vote remains on BTD. Also, questioning MC was directly connected to that wagon on BTD, given that MC was on that wagon and jumped off right away in response to being challenged.

And you haven't use your vote?

Huh? My vote is on MC. That vote was placed during RVS, but I decided to leave it there when MC jumped on the BTD wagon. But, you know, you're right. I think it is time to place a serious vote.

For reasons already stated, and generally weird behavior: VOTE: REALLY SICK

[Chip Butty]

I don't think this game should be played the same way more standard setup based games are.

How do you think it should be played?

[Chip Butty]

I'm not sure, but I am thinking there might be some sort of way to break the setup and nearly guarantee a town win.

I think there might be a way to guarantee that Town doesn't lose:

Start 7/2.
Town agrees to (1) All UNVOTE and (2) Lynch the first person to vote after that. Assuming all Town comply:

If wolves don't dare to vote, indefinite peace. If one wolf votes, then worst-case scenario, he squeezes a vote in just before Dayend and lynches a Town, so 6/2.

D2, we lynch that motherfucker, and he gets his two vengekills: 4/1.

D3, we repeat the strategy from D1. No Town votes. If the remaining scum doesn't dare to vote, indefinite peace. If he does vote, worst case scenario he lynches a Town, so 3/1.

D4, The remaining three Town lynch the remaining scum, and WIN.

[Chip Butty]

This is ridiculous because it's completely against the spirit of the game we're playing, but I'm p sure you're town for suggesting it~

But now that we are aware of it, if we don't do it we will be playing against wincon, since competng strategies would tend to be worse for Town.

Maybe you don't like it because you're a wolf, hmmm?

[Chip Butty]

It's technically playing against win con for no one to vote imo. If no one dies then everyone should lose after a set period of phases pass. As Ariadne said it's against the spirit of the game.

So if we are both right, we'll be playing against wincon if we do it, and playing against wincon if we don't do it.

What kind of werewolves don't have NK, anyway? Werechihuahuas, more like...

[Chip Butty]

I have to say, BTD's ISO does look terrible. I can only conclude he wants to get his two vengekills and exit the game.

[Chip Butty]

first of all, i think they would have found an easy broken town win if there was one. i believe there may be a Wolf PR that might prevent this strategy from working.

Note: Townslip...

[Chip Butty]

I have to say BTD's ISO is the worst I have ever seen. In fact, it strikes me as being

too

terrible to be real, almost as if he

wants

to be lynched...

[Chip Butty]

Not sure...some sort of PR that helps him if he is lynched, maybe...is werewolf jester a thing?

[Chip Butty]

This is getting interesting...

[Chip Butty]

I suspect wolf!D&A picked the fakehammer and thought Town!BTD didn't pick the fakehammer and thus that his seer claim is genuine. So she fakeclaimed to get a real hammer before the fakehammer came to light. She even called for a realhammer.

And who leapt in to carry out that claim for a realhammer? MC, who forgot that karnos had unvoted.

Also, it was D&A who questioned BTD on the Cop v Seer thing...again, trying to secure the realhammer before the fakehammer came to light.

Prob MC second wolf.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: D&A

[Chip Butty]

Well, MC is my choice for second wolf, so I don't mind taking him to

L-1

.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

[Chip Butty]

Well, MC is my choice for second wolf, so I don't mind taking him to

L-1

.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

But why leave D&A? Why would you rather vote Murdercat than D&A, having both as scum?

Apologies for being a bit absent lately. Will post tomorrow, including an answer to this question. Think I've taken on a bit much with five games.

[Chip Butty]

Well, MC is my choice for second wolf, so I don't mind taking him to

L-1

.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

But why leave D&A? Why would you rather vote Murdercat than D&A, having both as scum?

Okay, I'm back. I'm in five games, and I'm starting to think I've taken on a little too much. Mercifully, one of them is in night phase now.

Basically I left D&A because (1) There didn't seem to be enough interest in a D&L wagon for today - and the only other vote on him was BTD, the other "fakeseer"; (2) I wan't too sure what to make of the BDT/D&L / claims/fakeclaims / fakehammers trainwreck to be sure enough to keep my vote on D&L. When I voted D&A in 277, I nominated MC for second wolf, so that's where I swung my vote.

I'm going to have to reread and see what I make of all that now, and also what I think of MC now. Since I accused him, he has stopped whispering to me. Since this is a brand-new mechanic, I'm not sure what to make of that.

[Chip Butty]

Imagine there is a Seer and an RB.

You can try that idea but it will never work as I will constantly be roleblocked every night and will never find scum. This setup is not broken.

Am I missing something? Seer would only be blocked if the RB knew who he was, or got lucky, right?

By the way, are you Sick? Please sign all posts.

I have a slight cold - how did you know?

- Chip

[Chip Butty]

yes that was me.

ok BTD. If there was a RB than if you were cop... you wouldnt have outed yourself until last minute... not early in the day.

If you are cop... than you know for sure that there is an RB.


you are not a cop.
you are not a seer.

~ Sick

Wait, sorry I must be thick, but I'm not following. Why would BTD know there is a RB if he is Seer? And what about the possibility of a jailkeeper or an alpha wolf?

In fact, now that I think about it, an AW seems a more likely counter to a seer, because a RB/JK would have to get lucky to hit the seer early in the game, so my breaking plan could go quite far before the seer got taken out.

[Chip Butty]

Alpha wolf? letme check on that

Spare us the Townslips.

An AW is the werewolf equivalent to a godfather. Returns "Not werewolf" to seer investigationss.

[Chip Butty]

I mean, was it

really

necessary to post that? You couldn't just, you know, Google it without first posting that you were going to check it out?

[Chip Butty]

Oh, I agree, we should lynch someone we think is scum. But there should be two scum, and looking for another scum instead of lynching BTD first seems like a smart plan to me.

Normally I would disagree but because of the vengekills and the micropool, this might not be a bad approach.

@All: Have to go out now, but will think the game over when I return.

[Chip Butty]

Rereading now...

[Chip Butty]

AlphaWolf and Seer: i stated above why this is absolutely fine for town as well

Are you sure? Link? This is just a few posts after you "slipped" that you didn't know what an Alpha Wolf is...

[Chip Butty]

Okay, I think I am starting to see through the soup a little, but not sure yet. I'm going to mull it over, but will be back before deadline to post thoughts and a vote. In the meantime:

UNVOTE:

[Chip Butty]

Okay, I don't have any more time to spend on this right now, and might not get back before the deadline. So:

1. I think BTD's ISO still looks SAF. I've talked about the pre-fakehammer stuff before. I was kind of inclined to believe him over D&A earlier, but now I noticed the time elapsed between the fakehammer and his first response was about an hour, which is plenty time to plan a response. Hence I'm not prepared to give him Towncred for anything there. He has given reads on several plaeyers, but nothing much very detailed or original. lately he just seems to be tunneled on setup-related issues and trying to find setups that will support his claim.

2. If there is a seer in this game, there has to be a counterbalance or the game is broken. If it is an RB, then Seer!BTD is broken because the RB can just block him every night, now that he is outed. An Alpha doesn't seem like a strong enough counterbalance, so it prob isn't that.

On the other hand, looking at BNLP's ISO, he actually asks a lot of questions and, on the surface at least, seems to be investigating. I'll need to take a deeper look at him later, but for now he looks not too bad. MC is looking a bit better to me now, but still not sure about him. I think karnos is probTown, partly because of his fakehammer, and partly because he pointed out that, with a Seer, my gamebreak plan could actually ensire a Town win. I don't see a clear scum motivation for that that would outweight the risk that Town might go for the plan. There are a couple others I am a bit suspicious of - RS, for e.g. - and others I will keep to myself for now.

VOTE: BTD

[Chip Butty]

^ Alpha + RB: same deal as for RB alone - outed Seer is broken.

Point is, he looks scummy, and since his role is likely broken, no worse than losing a VT if his claim does turn out to be true.

[Chip Butty]

Votecount 1.17

BulletNLynchproof (4)

Murdercat ReallySick Dionysus and Ariadne JaeReed (L-1)

BTD6_Maker (1)

Chip Butty

karnos (2)

BulletNLynchproof Charloux

Dionysus and Ariadne (2)

BTD6_Maker karnos

Not Voting (0)

Deadline is on Tuesday, June 21st: (expired on 2016-06-21 04:15:00).

I just want to point out that MC was the L-1 vote on the BNLP wagon, not the first...

[Chip Butty]

7.5 hours to deadline, I'm thinking my vote isn't going to make a difference. At least with the setup being what it is, we don't have to worry about nightkills.

I hope I am wrong, but I really don't think BNL has been acting scummy.

BulletNLynchproof (4) Murdercat ReallySick Dionysus and Ariadne JaeReed (L-1)

At least one scum pushing that wagon, possibly both.

Yeah, this. Strengthens my Town read on karnos.

Well, it looks like, under the plurality rule, BNLP is gonna hang today, unless something happens real soonish. For the record, I can't say I really like it, or the looks of the wagon on him.

[Chip Butty]

This isn't good. If BNLP is a mislynch, as I suspect, then when you factor in the two vengekills when we hit scum, we're already at 4/1 in the best case scenario.

Because micropool, it looks like vengekills + plurality voting is enough to balance out the lack of NKs, and maybe more than enough. I'm thinking that there prob aren't PRs, just on the basis that the setup has a kind of elegance about it, and PRs would look a bit ham-fisted here. That's just gut, though. I think the tool we have been given here to fight scum is the whisper mechanic, but that is a double-edged sword. D2 I will try to make more use of it.

[Chip Butty]

I know i don't have the right to say this based on my activity but,

why on earth are you guessing the game setup 12 hours before the deadline?!

If you can't decide who to lynch, then just go to random.org or something. The only ones who have a clue of the setup are PR's(If any) and scum. So i can only see scum gaining from mere speculations.

We have no claimed Seer, so lynching town delibaretly is a bad idea if you ask me.

VOTE: Karnos
Since i didn't even analyze the game properly i just decided to vote for someone i don't mind not seeing tomorrow. My first choice would be D&A, but

since SOMEONE blackmailed me not to

(You know who you are!) i will just go with this.

What misrepresentation? I never linked that statement to you!
Basically you are scumlean at worst ,

but i have reasons not to vote for anybody else

.

Explain the bits in red, please.

[Chip Butty]

I know i don't have the right to say this based on my activity but,

why on earth are you guessing the game setup 12 hours before the deadline?!

If you can't decide who to lynch, then just go to random.org or something. The only ones who have a clue of the setup are PR's(If any) and scum. So i can only see scum gaining from mere speculations.

We have no claimed Seer, so lynching town delibaretly is a bad idea if you ask me.

VOTE: Karnos
Since i didn't even analyze the game properly i just decided to vote for someone i don't mind not seeing tomorrow. My first choice would be D&A, but

since SOMEONE blackmailed me not to

(You know who you are!) i will just go with this.

What misrepresentation? I never linked that statement to you!
Basically you are scumlean at worst ,

but i have reasons not to vote for anybody else

.

Explain the bits in red, please.

I told him not to vote D&A. My read on her is equivalent to Innocent Child to me. I'd imagine that's what the blackmailed not to part was about, because I told him I want my strongest town read alive.

The top bit is him saying deliberately lynching town is a bad idea. I agree. He misunderstood that we were looking for the 2nd scum rather than deliberately avoiding scum to avoid the venge on BTD if he was indeed the seer. (He's not the seer, though)

He has reasons not to vote for anybody else = townreads or claims. It all seems pretty straightforward to me aside from the blackmail comment. Which is directly correlated to our chat in our room.

@Jae: Although it's all correct, i don't want you to WK me again

First, Jae: I don't see why you felt a need to jump in here and answer on Charl's behalf.

@Charl: You've endorsed the content of Jae's answer on your behalf, but it remains unexplained why you say there is no claimed seer. Also, Jae's explanation does NOT explain the "blackmail" comment. Blackmail is where someone is saying "Do what I say, or I will do this bad thing to you". And can YOU please explain the "have reasons not to vote anybody else" bit? Do you mean you literally don't scumread anyone but karnos?

[Chip Butty]

Okay Charl, you are also scumreading D&A but why are you buying Jae's strong Townread of D&A? are you so sure Jae is Town? If so, why?

[Chip Butty]

Damn! I have to go out just when things are looking interesting. Will be back in a few hours to see what has developed from BTD's accusation.

[Chip Butty]

Why would we have a 48 hour night cycle if there is no night power roles? That one aspect of the game makes me second guess my initial thoughts, and I have to admit the existence of a seer is at least possible.

I can think of a couple reasons off the top of my head. (1) Not having a standard nightphase would be a dead giveaway that there are no PRs with night actions - this way, we have to figure it out; (2) Allows time for people to whisper at night.

Also, there is this:

Deadlines are 10 days for Day, 48 hours for Night. Fail to submit actions on time and they are forfeit.

Clue? Or just part of the fog surrounding parts of the setup?

[Chip Butty]

@Chip: It's interesting how you started an attack on me as soon as i told you that you are a suspect Got a scum vibe from that.

Up until you drew my attention by opening a whisper with me to insult me and announce your suspicions, I wasn't paying you any attention. But when that happened I decided to check your ISO and see where you might be coming from. I know from past experience I read you as scummy regardless of your alignment and that might be what is happening here, so inconclusive for now. TBH, I'm more interested to see what comes of BTD's alleged Seer claim on MC ATM.

Also, i find this situation with BTD and Murder kinda sad. If he is guilty then we got scum, if he is town then BTD is scum, no?

Why sad? It's good for Town to finger scum, no?

[Chip Butty]

Apparently, BTD told different results to some, and claimed he was actually a VT to others, which wasn't what I was expecting at all. The gambit is useful if he is really a seer giving a 100% wrong result, if he is actually just a VT making a guess, then his result could by chance actually be true, so that sort of ruins the experiment.

It looks like BTD did tell different things to different people. I need an explanation from him for this, and if we don't get anything satisfactory, I am happy to lynch him today. I think we should all say what he whsipered to us re: the "gambit". He told me he got "No result" on MC.

[Chip Butty]

And why would BTD fuck up the gambit? Maybe because one of the people it was intended to trap is his scumbuddy?

[Chip Butty]

We're at 8 now so assuming no night kills we have... 3 more mislynches before we need to find scum.

We're at 6/2, right? Three more mislynches, we're 3/2. Then hit scum, 3/1. Scum vengekills 2, 1/1. Town loses.

And what do you mean "assuming no night kills"? We know scum doesn't have NK. Are you suggesting there might be a Vig?

[Chip Butty]

Apparently, BTD told different results to some, and claimed he was actually a VT to others, which wasn't what I was expecting at all. The gambit is useful if he is really a seer giving a 100% wrong result, if he is actually just a VT making a guess, then his result could by chance actually be true, so that sort of ruins the experiment.

It looks like BTD did tell different things to different people. I need an explanation from him for this, and if we don't get anything satisfactory, I am happy to lynch him today. I think we should all say what he whsipered to us re: the "gambit". He told me he got "No result" on MC.

Nvm, I see he did post something about this.

Note to self: read through to the end before posting.

[Chip Butty]

Fuck this shit. BTD is either scum or negative utility Town. Double-level gambit? Get over yourself.

VOTE: BTD

[Chip Butty]

Interesting thing: 1v1 doesn't mean town loses, it just means the first person to post and vote at the start of day wins, whether town or wolf. Kind of funny really.

Here's another one:

If it gets to 2/2, then

...if scum votes twice before Town, scum wins;

...if Town votes twice before scum, then 2/1 BUT vengekills, so 0/1, scum wins.

[Chip Butty]

I'm not seeing any reason to change my vote.

Ninja'ed Charl & MC. LOL, me too...

[Chip Butty]

Remind me to refer back to this post, please.

[Chip Butty]

Votecount 2.6

Charloux (2)

JaeReed Dionysus and Ariadne

BTD6_Maker (2)

karnos Chip Butty

karnos (2)

BTD6_Maker Charloux

Not Voting (2)

Murdercat ReallySick

Deadline is on Sunday, July 4th: (expired on 2016-07-04 00:00:00).
Ranger made a votecount in 804

Why people are going karnos>Murdercat.

VOTE: Karnos

I will have to settle in 2nd trophy.

~Realeo

UNVOTE:
VOTE: D&A

There's no way your reads are this bad. Plus I do legitimately think you pointing out stuff being scumtells is one of your own.

So today's menu is {ReallySick,Karnos}. Let us focus here unless any of you can cook a new meal.

~Realeo

I don't trust this. How does RS reach the conclusion he does in #855, given that last VC and the two votes in-between? Why no mention of BTD, who had two votes? Looks to me like BTD scumbuddy trying to get Town.karnos lynched.

[Chip Butty]

Popping in.

I'm REALLY not wanting Karnos here.

Looking through his ISO, like all of his posts are like:

BTD is scum!
No really, BTD is scum
RS and BTD is scum!

He's been screAming the same exact thing in his Iso OVER and OVER.

How does this not read scum to you?

~ Sick

How do you reconcile the bits in red?

[Chip Butty]

I was always gonna sheep you.

What's this crap about sheeping Jae anyway, even if you read JR as confTown? What makes you so sure JR can hit scum here?

[Chip Butty]

Popping in.

I'm REALLY not wanting Karnos here.

Looking through his ISO, like all of his posts are like:

BTD is scum!
No really, BTD is scum
RS and BTD is scum!

He's been screAming the same exact thing in his Iso OVER and OVER.

How does this not read scum to you?

~ Sick

How do you reconcile the bits in red?

Okay, maybe I misred the first bit in read. I thought you meant you didn't want to lynch karnos, but now I read it as the oppsite to that, which makes more sense, given the second red bit.

But I still don't see why you read his keenness to lynch BTD as scummy, unless you are SURE BTD is Town?

[Chip Butty]

* "Okay, maybe I mis

read

the first bit in

red

..." ^ LOL

[Chip Butty]

I was always gonna sheep you.

What's this crap about sheeping Jae anyway, even if you read JR as confTown? What makes you so sure JR can hit scum here?

Because I demanded it in whisper after the BNL flip.

Jae, could you PLEASE stop answering on behalf of others?

Also, you haven't answered the question properly. I mean, if you demanded in a whisper that I sheep you, I'd tell you to GFY. What I want to know is why D&A acceded to your demand.

[Chip Butty]

I'm thinking BTD/RS at this point.

[Chip Butty]

LOL the phrasing of BTD's confirmation sounded funny to me - like, overly formal - and I actually copy/pasted it. Didn't read anything AI into it, though. Maybe check his confirmations in other games that have in-thread confs?

Need to read through/re-read and get into the game again. Will be back in a few hours to do that. Sorry, been busy, spent what little time I have had on another game, connection issues as well. Should be able to become more active again now.

[Chip Butty]

That karnos lynch was ridiculous.

[Chip Butty]

We need to look at how that happened in detail.

[Chip Butty]

There were three votes before that - BTD, Charl, RS.

BTD was prob just trying to get heat off himself. So:

Why did Charl vote karnos?
Why did RS vote karnos?
Why did Jae vote karnos?
And I'm still not quite understanding why you agreed to sheep Jae? Unless I've forgotten something.

So I plan to go back and look at all that. No time right now, though...

[Chip Butty]

I'm hoping at least one scum was on that wagon, because the thought that it was all Town is too depressing.

[Chip Butty]

I'm thinking BTD/RS at this point.

<Ahem> Make sure you spell my name right on my MVP award. It's "Butty" with teo "t"s.

Seriously Jae - you knew D&A was going to sheep you but you didn't bother reading? You're usually so conscientious - I find it a bit hard to believe, tbh...

[Chip Butty]

Votecount 1.19 (Final D1)

BulletNLynchproof

- 4 (

Dionysus and Ariadne

,

ReallySick

,

JaeReed

, Murdercat)

karnos - 2 (BulletNLynchproof, Charloux)
Dionysus and Ariadne - 2 (BTD6_maker,

karnos

)
BTD6_maker - 1 (Chip Butty)

BulletNLynchproof was at L-1.

Votecount 2.11 (Final D2)

karnos

- 5 (BTD6_maker, Charloux,

ReallySick

,

JaeReed

,

Dionysus and Ariadne

)

BTD6_maker - 2 (

karnos

, Chip Butty)

Not Voting - 2 (BTD6_maker, Murdercat)

Flipped Town

.

On both mislynches

.

Analysis to follow...

[Chip Butty]

Those in Yellow who are Town seriously need to start questioning their reading ability in this game.

[Chip Butty]

Oh and BTW.

VOTE: ChipButty

I still need to confirm meta with Sickofit38, so hang tight!

Oh and BTW. Are you going to support that with actual reasons, you who have been on 2/2 mislynch wagons?

[Chip Butty]

I keep saying "We can lynch Karnos together or We can lynch BTD together".
...
The only reason I will defend BTD if I am scum will be for towncreding.

The first line sounds like you think BTD is guilty, but the second sounds like yu know he is Town (that is the only way that defending BTD would get you Town cred).

I didn't see D&A hammer coming in my calculation tbh.

Why not? There was all that stuff about him promising to sheep Jae...

[Chip Butty]

I said I was trusting D&A to read. Which she clearly didn't or she wouldn't have hammered lol.

You knew that D&A had promised to sheep you. So taking karnos to L-1 was effectively hammering him.

[Chip Butty]

And now that karnos has flipped green, we know his proposed gambit was on the up-and-up. So BTD's subversion of it looks scummier.

So many suspects, so little room for mislynches.

[Chip Butty]

I don't get your first pointer.

About your second pointer, It was made clear that JR, MC, RS are still debating. I mean, that debate is like 3 pages with me using big font and colorful font.

I used the font red. It turned out, red is not enough to attract people.

~Realeo

My first point is that the statements I quoted from you appear to be at odds with each other.

Also, red is Ranger's color in this game. Might be an idea to highlight using another color.

[Chip Butty]

@ChipButty:
Hey Mister-I-Never-Mislynch. Start voting BTD.

In the light of karnos' lynch, I'm more inclined to vote within Yellow atm. Pretty sure at least one wolf there.

[Chip Butty]

@ChipButty:
Hey Mister-I-Never-Mislynch. Start voting BTD.

Also, this kind of sounds like you might be trying to start another mislynch wagon.

[Chip Butty]

@ChipButty:
Hey Mister-I-Never-Mislynch. Start voting BTD.

Also, this kind of sounds like you might be trying to start another mislynch wagon.

So BTD is town now? I thought it was BTD/RS.

And seriously Mr.ChipButty.

Put your mouth where your money is

. You keep fosing but never push for your fos.

The expression is "Put your

money

where your

mouth

is".

I pushed for BTD on D1 and D2, and voted him both days. But Town decided to kill Town. You yourself insist not BTD/RS, so maybe just RS, hmmm? RS looking for someone to lead a mislynch on BTD? It's a possibility. I'm certainly not clearing BTD, but now that we have two nights' flip data, a re-evaluation is in order.

And I will vote when I am ready, which is to say when I have an idea who is the scummiest Yellow. Right now, it would be RS > Jae > D&A, I think.

[Chip Butty]

I mean, Mr.ChipButty. The reason I fos you now is that you always play the "pass the buck" game style and most of your comment is "the filler style"--which is why BNLP get lynched in first place.

Really? I'm pointing out who has been on mislynches. That isn't passing the buck, it is "Vote Analysis". And please quote me my filler posts...

[Chip Butty]

So vote me then, Mr.MVP. We have done this before on D1. I ask for you voting me and you obediently vote me before fleeing away to vote Murdercat.

@ChipButty: When I was reading your ISO--it seem that you're too relaxed for a concept of people being put at L-1.

Granted, my concern at BPLP was a little bit premature--but your seem to be too relaxed about BTD wagon and start questioning MURDERCAT. I mean, there's only 7 days left at the clock so a lynch there won't be so weird.

Uh, no. Read my 121, 127, 128, 129 for concern at BTD being at L-1. And it's kind of weird that you accuse me of this, given that your vote remains on BTD. Also, questioning MC was directly connected to that wagon on BTD, given that MC was on that wagon and jumped off right away in response to being challenged.

And you haven't use your vote?

Huh?

My vote is on MC. That vote was placed during RVS, but I decided to leave it there when MC jumped on the BTD wagon

. But, you know, you're right.

I think it is time to place a serious vote.

For reasons already stated, and generally weird behavior:

VOTE: REALLY SICK

I suspect wolf!D&A picked the fakehammer and thought Town!BTD didn't pick the fakehammer and thus that his seer claim is genuine. So she fakeclaimed to get a real hammer before the fakehammer came to light. She even called for a realhammer.

And who leapt in to carry out that claim for a realhammer? MC, who forgot that karnos had unvoted.

Also, it was D&A who questioned BTD on the Cop v Seer thing...again, trying to secure the realhammer before the fakehammer came to light.

Prob MC second wolf.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: D&A

Well, MC is my choice for second wolf, so I don't mind taking him to

L-1

.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

As you can see, RS, you are lying. You did not ask me to vote you. I did vote you (of my own volition) but then changed in light of later events.
What is your point?

[Chip Butty]

And now that karnos has flipped green, we know his proposed gambit was on the up-and-up. So BTD's subversion of it looks scummier.

So many suspects, so little room for mislynches.

Like, even we know this. You don't need to tell us. I mean, I have considered it to an extent that I'm starting to considering CB/BTD.

Again, what is your point?

[Chip Butty]

@RS

I'm not sure if this will help you any with your enquiry. The ISO of Chip in a newbie that I played with him (I replaced in and started tunneling him because I thought he'd jumped on Kappy as lynchbait, but it turned out Kappy was just scum), and from another game which I think is Sick's experience with Chip.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p7894977
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p7939469

Chip was town in both of these iirc.

Ahhhh! Newbie 1704. Good times! In particular, look at Day 3 in that game when I basically unloaded on Town for a stupid mislynch they did in my absence. Then I basically hammered the remaining scum (hiplop) a few pages later to win the game. BTW, if you want to see erratic play, check out Charloux in that game. He was VT but claimed JK (AFTER claiming VT!!!) and nearly got himself lynched over it. Me: 2 lynch votes, 2 scum dead. Game Over.

[Chip Butty]

In mafia, there are something that we call as

Gloating tell

This is very classic that mafia can't just stop telling how good they are or how bad is something or whatever.

There is also something called a joke. I make a lot of them. They are all hilarious. In fact, Sick called me out about making a lot of jokes at the beginning of this game.

[Chip Butty]

I'm thinking both scum are in BTD + Yellow group (RS, Jae, D&A)

RS is looking really scummy to me because of the nature of his push on me - nitpicking and misreading stuff like seeing my joke about MVP as "gloating" and now he is annoyed at indecisiveness, as he if he trying to get BTD quicklynched. According to the latest VC, Charl and D&A aren't voting yet either, but you don't see RS bugging them about being indecisive. They have already helped mislynch BNLP and karnos, and I appear to be their next target.

[Chip Butty]

Try this. Use the ISO feature below (Display posts by user) and add everyone except ChipButty and try rereading. If your read is the same--then it means that ChipButty has no content.

OR it means we have pretty much the same reads. Right now I am trying to decide whether you are scum or just dumb.

Ninja'd MC: I tried on D1 and D2 to get BTD lynched. Instead Town decided to mislynch BNLP and karnos. I recently experienced something like this RS attack in Newbie 1713, when a couple dumbTown deathtunneled and mislynched me. So I am trying to evaluate if it is the same thing happening again, or it is a scum attack. Their two mislynches could mean either.

[Chip Butty]

So we have different definition I guess. What's yours? Gambit /= flail, imo.

My definition of flailing is if I can get rid one player's opinion--and

still reach the same conclusion

, I call it flailing. Maybe fillering is the right jargon?

I mean, most of CB's argument has something to with auxiliary confusion. At the beginning, I can appreciate him--he's just doing his job. He's scumhunting and inquiring. But at time progress, this is forced.

I mean, try this

I pushed for BTD on D1 and D2, and voted him both days. But Town decided to kill Town.

You yourself insist not BTD/RS, so maybe just RS, hmmm?

RS looking for someone to lead a mislynch on BTD? It's a possibility. I'm certainly not clearing BTD, but now that we have two nights' flip data, a re-evaluation is in order.

And I will vote when I am ready, which is to say when I have an idea who is the scummiest Yellow. Right now, it would be RS > Jae > D&A, I think.

Is he that desperate to pin me? I mean, I understand that people can be mean--like you did at D2--but this is forced. I mean, even when you're being harsh, it's so obvious that you're still sound and mind--which is why I transform my read from scumreading you to townreading you--to a point that I need to whisper you.

~Realeo

Really, what ARE you on about? I'm "mean" because I find you scummy?

[Chip Butty]

ChipButty only talks

because I provoke him

. Imagine if I didn't vote him.[/spoiler]

Or, maybe I have a life. Don't kid yourself that my burst of posting today has anything to do with you. I just happen to have some spare time atm.

[Chip Butty]

The ONLY reason I haven't yet voted RS is because I have played with Sick before and he managed to look SAF while being Town. Then he self-hammered AS TOWN. Open 640. Realeo just doesn't seem very good OR he is scum launching insubstantial attacks on me.

Well, that and I am still thinking about BTD.

[Chip Butty]

VOTE: BTD
If this is going to happen, better to do it today, rather than tomorrow when it's lylo

Actually, you are right about this. I've been trying to get BTD lynched for two days, and now maybe it will happen.

VOTE: BTD

I'm going to allow that RS might be simply annoying and misguided for the time being, but if BTD somehow flips green, he will be on the top of the suspect list.

[Chip Butty]

I think that is

L-1

btw.

[Chip Butty]

Funny how BTD appears from nowhere when intent is declared.

[Chip Butty]

Jae and Chip are both weaker scumreads of mine but I think one of them is scum aligned with D&A. It could be either, but I am not as confident about them as I am with D&A.

I think a D&A lynch is preferable today, followed by a lynch of Jae or Chip if we hit scum on D&A. If D&A doesn't reach a lynch (as seems the case now), I will accept a Chip lynch today.

VOTE: Chip Butty

Eh? A D&A lynch is preferable, but you vote me even though I only have one vote on me?

This is early Day 3 and we should at least try to not lynch the easy wagon.

Easy wagon? I've been trying this for two days. I was on the verge of giving up on this game after that awful karnos lynch, but if we lynch you I suspect Town is right back in the game.

[Chip Butty]

r.
I am confident in a D&A/Murdercat team. When I flip, lynch them.


Chip, voting D&A would result in D&A having 1 vote. Voting you would result in you having 2 votes.

Wait, there are two wolves in this game and you are confident in a D&A/MC team, but you're voting me? How does that even pretend to make sense?

[Chip Butty]

So what are we waiting for? A third claim? LOL

[Chip Butty]

Day 3 dawns with no deaths.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-07-19 00:00:00)

I am voting for Chip because that is the only other wagon I see at the moment on a scumread that has any chance of going to a lynch. Unless, of course, you are willing to wagon D&A. We should lynch D&A today and Murdercat tomorrow. Both of them seem seriously scummy in hastily forcing a hammer on a mislynch.

You serious? We still have more than a week until deadline. You're not even going to vote your strongest scumread a week out from deadline? Why would you say that ANY wagon has no chance of going to a lynch this far out? This doesn't make any more sense than your other recent posts.

[Chip Butty]

^ For the record, deadline counter shows 7 days, 3 hours, 19 minutes as of the above post.

[Chip Butty]

For the assumpion of this profile--we assume BTD is the 1st werewolf. Who's second?

The second mafia has to be someone who is naive enough

not to stop BTD from gambiting

I'm not seeing this. Maybe he didn't announce to his partner that he was going to gambit.

Only people who profile mathces that description is:
[*]Charloux: He have experinece gambiting JK
[*]Reallysick: I have experience gambiting VI and Sick have perform wifom kill.[/spoiler]

Wow, you've included yourself as a possible suspect out of this. That's SOOOOO Town, dude! /sarcasm

[Chip Butty]

I could vote D&A now but that is no good if I die. Therefore I must get the lynch off myself (because of the plurality lynch system) first. After this I can wagon the person I want.

Unless, of course, Chip, would you be willing to wagon D&A?

Have you decided who you want to vengekill yet?

[Chip Butty]

That's a "no", in case you are wondering.

[Chip Butty]

The reason I push for BTD lynch now despite I still townread it is IMO, the POE is over.

If BTD flips town, the POE is over. I think the only scum partner is {CB,D&A}. It' can be {CB,Charloux}--but I will make my case later.
If BTD flips scum, the POE is over. I think the only scum partner are {BTD,RS} and {BTD,Charloux}.

Town or Scum, BTD flip ends our POE.

Unless someone else can point something, I think my conclusion is correct.

If you are so sure, why not hammer? Put your money where your mouth is.

I still don't buy your reasoning, btw. BTD's partner might not have been online when he gambited, and thus powerless to stop him from digging in so deep he couldn't easily back out because of the D&A cc.

Anyway, we can see who gets vengekilled and who doesn't, and go from there. Your analysis above makes me suspect you might KNOW BTD will flip green and you are setting up me/D&A as future lynch targets and trying to pre-emptively clear yourself. Just so you know: If BTD flips green and you surivive the vengekills, I will prob be pushing for your lynch.

[Chip Butty]

The reason I push for BTD lynch now despite I still townread it is IMO, the POE is over.

If you Townread BTD, you shouldn't be pushing for his lynch, esp since that would burn our last mislynch if you are right.

If BTD flips town, the POE is over. I think the only scum partner is {CB,D&A}. It' can be {CB,Charloux}--but I will make my case later.

Why?

If BTD flips scum, the POE is over. I think the only scum partner are {BTD,RS} and {BTD,Charloux}.

So you would be okay with being lynched next?

[Chip Butty]

By your list of flips, we can gain PoE information from Chip's lynch. If Chip flips scum we look to D&A and possibly Charloux and otherwise you would probably lynch me. The problem comes if both of us flip Town (barring PRs, we lose).

You're not dying for info primarily. You're dying because you lied about your role, then screwed karnos' attempt to trap scum, and general scumminess.

[Chip Butty]

[quote="In post 1100, Realeo"]
Because even though we have tied loose ends on what happens if BTD flips scum, we haven't tied loose ends on what happens if BTD flips town.
[quote]
Oh really? Because a few posts back you sounded like you had it all worked out. I do not believe you are being sincere here.

[Chip Butty]

1 for 1 with Charloux? Absolutely. I mean, who else is scum? JaeReed?

Like I said, let's wait and see who gets vengekilled.

[Chip Butty]

BTD, then if you aren't VKed, you. After that...? Let's wait and see.

[Chip Butty]

The reason I push for BTD lynch now despite I still townread it is IMO, the POE is over.

If BTD flips town, the POE is over. I think the only scum partner is {CB,D&A}. It' can be {CB,Charloux}--but I will make my case later.
If BTD flips scum, the POE is over. I think the only scum partner are {BTD,RS} and {BTD,Charloux}.

Town or Scum, BTD flip ends our POE.

Unless someone else can point something, I think my conclusion is correct.

If you will forgive yet another rebuttal, it is this post that led me to the conclusion that you were confident you have solved the game.

[Chip Butty]

Hmmm...Charl, I don't know if I can trust you here. I know you like to fakeclaim.

I'm betting the game on MC beinng Town. If he is, I don't really need a 1-shot Vigi, since can just lynch hrough RS and you. But okay, suppose we lynch RS today. If the game doesn't end, my money is on you as scum. No NK, then MC and me lynch you tomorrow. But if you are 1-shot Vigi, you need to holster tonight, 'kay?

VOTE: REALLYSICK

@Mod: That's MC's vote too, since he appointed me his proxy.

[Chip Butty]

RS was on both mislynches, but on on the BTD wagon. so he has the worst possible voting record. Either he is scum or he is utterly incompetent Town. Either way, we can't afford to keep him around.

[Chip Butty]

* "...but NOT on the BTD wagon..." ^

[Chip Butty]

I will throw this info now. I was going to ask this but the V/LA

@ChipButty

, did Murdercat asked you about whether you have whisper thread with D&A? Because Murdercat told me that he asked you and you said no, you don't have whisper thread with D&A.

Yes, MC asked me if I had a whisper with D&A and, if so, when did it start. I answered truthfully that I did not. We then agreed it would be a good idea to ask for a 3-way whisper b/w MC, D&A, and myself. I sent in the request to Ranger but D&A got vengekilled before it could be set up.

[Chip Butty]

Is Unpopular guy a thing in MafiaScum? Unfamous guy is a guy who vote does not count.

If that's the case, it can't be either me or Charloux because Karnos' lynch goes through. So CB is unpopular guy??

If myself not being lynched is not a glitch--then I have to retract my 1 for 1 with Charloux. If this is not a glith and CB is unpopular guy, we're talking lylo.

Votecount 3.03

BTD6_Maker (4)JaeReed , Charloux , Chip Butty , Murdercat

LYNCH!

,

Chip Butty (2)

ReallySick , BTD6_Maker ,

Not Voting (1)

Dionysus and Ariadne ,

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-07-19 00:00:00)

Please stand by for an official vote count from Ranger.

My vote counts - check the BTD lynch. Realio, how come you checked the karnos lynch but not this?

It might be that Ranger just hasn't got around to doing the flip yet. Or you might be "loved" - i.e. need an extra vote to get lynched

[Chip Butty]

ReallySick - 3 (Chip Butty, Charloux, ReallySick)

Not Voting - 1 (Murdercat)

This looks like it was done in a hurry - there's none of the usual VC formatting. So, prob best to await developments rather than leap into speculation at this point.

[Chip Butty]

But to be "loved" don't I need someone to love me? Which of you is the lover?

No. Come on, dude, it takes literally one minute t Google "mafia scum loved".

[Chip Butty]

[Chip Butty]

whoever votes first tomorrow wins