Micro 617: Pokémon Episode 5 GAME OVER

[Ranger]

Hey Ranger want to play a game where we assume we are both town for the rest of the game?

I wish I could. :(

{Not_Mafia}
{BlueBloodedToffee}
{racefan12}
{Sword of Damocles}
{Justin Trudeau}

[Ranger]

{Not_Mafia, Bellaphant, BlueBloodedToffee}
{racefan12}
{Sword of Damocles}
{Justin Trudeau}

[Ranger]

Ranger why do you have varying town reads on everyone?

I didn't say that.

VOTE: Justin Trudeau.

[Ranger]

I really don't like RVS so if you have an explanation for that vote I would love to hear it.

In due time.

[Ranger]

Pardon the newb question, but am I correct in inferring that Ranger's lists are supposed to be interpreted as reading from most town-read on the top to most scum-read on the bottom?

Well, take a guess! ;)

[Ranger]

{Not_Mafia, Bellaphant, BlueBloodedToffee}
{racefan12}
{Sword of Damocles, Justin Trudeau}

[Ranger]

Okay, so regardless of Justin Trudeau's alignment (which at this point is probably town), Sword of Damocles is definitely scum.

If I live to see tomorrow, I'll find the second.

[Ranger]

Whoops. Thought I had posted here yesterday. Guess not!
VOTE: Sword of Damocles.
I'll read in a sec, but I said they were scum yesterday and I was not joking.

[Ranger]

Ranger, you never did explain. What was the reason behind your JT vote?

Weak reasons.
The vote was cast on page one.
That post was on page two.

In no way could I have expected a hammer on page

four

.
Also, irrelevant reasons because they flipped town.

I didn't like their entrance, but it wasn't something worth lynching them over.

I think you're the scum off the wagon, but that there was also probably a scum on the wagon.

Basically, I think Bellaphant is town, and also am assuming Yume is probably town, and am looking for the second within {racefan12, BlueBloodedToffee, lilith2013}.
BlueBloodedToffee has made a very strong presence, from memory had one yesterday as well, so I don't think it's him.
Meaning I'm mostly taking a look at {racefan, lilith} for a scumbuddy, but I do need to do that full reread.
For what little we have at least.

[Ranger]

Ugh, is anyone else reacting badly to the fact race fan just made a whole load of words say....nothing?

It did not escape my notice, no.

At this stage, my reads look something like:
{BlueBloodedToffee, Bellaphant}
{Yume}
{lilith}
{racefan}
{Sword of Damocles}

[Ranger]

Ranger why is lilith a scumlean?

She's not. She's just not a townlean and she's in the "figures of interest" pool.

Ranger, can you elaborate on your Yume read please?

Unless the lynch was all town, there'd be one scum on the wagon.
You're my scumread off the wagon.
Mixed with a side of gut, and you get: townread.

[Ranger]

How many posts have Yume made, Ranger?

None.

Doesn't stop the statements I made from being true.
The lynch was unlikely to be all town. Ergo, there must be at least one scum on it.
I do not believe both scum were on it.
I believe you are scum.
You were off the wagon.
Ergo, the other scum is on the wagon.
Ergo, Yume who was off the wagon is not scum.
Furthering this, I have a gut townread on Yume even in spite of Yume having no posts. This is because I simply don't think Yume is scum, with absolutely no reasoning attached because there literally can't be any reasoning attached. I simply think it so.

Sorry SS, I can't deal with this scum any longer.
- Ari

Ironically, you would have stood a chance of 115 sounding good if you had signed it Something_Smart.
At the very least, it'd have been null.

This is not a town-Aristo.

[Ranger]

Why couldn't both scum be on or off the wagon,especially with it being an eRly quicklynch?

If five town players simultaneously decided to lynch a town player...then that would mean {Sword of Damocles, Yume, Bellaphant} contains two scum. Bellaphant claimed miller on D1 even. That would require you being scum. Ergo...five town players did not simultaneously decide to lynch town.

If two scum were on the wagon, then why would Not_Mafia be dead? It would narrow down the suspect list.
Ergo, two scum were not on the wagon.

Thus...one on, one off.

[Ranger]

For her, not making sense is a scumtell.

No, for me, making too much sense is the scumtell.

I'm not really interested in going into detail unless for some ungodly reason players actually buy that line.

Though if you want to look at things which make no sense...

And another thing. Suppose you're considering if we are scum with XXXX. Well, the odds of {Sword of Damocles, XXXX} containing two scum is so low, that you might as well just ignore it, right? So if you're convinced that Sword of Damocles is an easy mislynch, then you have to townread XXXX, right?

This as a counter makes no sense.

The reasons I gave were based on very solid trends. Scum don't vote together often in micros on D1. Maybe D2. Definitely D3. But not on D1. Not_Mafia died during the night as well, when he was on the wagon. Players hunting for scum on the wagon would therefore be more inclined to...hunt for the scum players that were on the wagon. Ergo...scum were unlikely to make that kill if two scum were on the wagon. This is all hard, solid stuff.

If it follows both scum are not on the wagon, it is a necessity that there be at least one off. Following from that...what if both were off? First, this requires an incredibly-unlikely premise, that an all-town wagon happened on D1, page four, in less than 24 hours. If you want to point to odds of that happening, I'm not in the mood to manually compile every micro and every newbie to see of those 2,000 games or so how often it has happened. I'd guess about 100. So it is not, at all, an unreasonable conclusion to assume the lynch on D1 is not all-town.

But let's play ball anyway. Then, we've got three names that could be scum: {Bellaphant, Yume, Sword of Damocles}. Ergo, 2/3 would be scum. Vote inside the pool. Bellaphant claimed miller, and that claim seemed sincere. Unlikely to be scum. Therefore, if 2 scum were off, the scumteam would be {Yume, Sword of Damocles}.
Yume didn't post yet.
Sword has.
Ergo...lynch Sword of Damocles.

What if it was, instead, as I believe, one on and one off?
Well then, there's a pool of three names on the wagon. BlueBloodedToffee is a townread, off of both today and yesterday.
Leaving {racefan, lilith}.
And off the wagon, you get those same three. The townread on Bellaphant doesn't change. The read on Yume is a gut townread. To claim I can't get a townread on a player that hasn't posted yet is to claim no playing experience with me...but Aristophanes has played with me. He knows that I can, and have, townread players that have not posted. What was that based on in those past games? Mostly, gut, with a side of observation on the gamestate.

Yume hasn't posted.
But people are talking, and have been talking, about Yume since the beginning of the game.
So I got a read on their talks of Yume.

Then we have Sword of Damocles. Who has been a scumread since D1. Poor entrance, poor handling of the Justin Trudeau wagon, basically, knowing Justin Trudeau was going to flip town, and trying to set up D2. So from a combination of simple logic.
Plus simple reads.
The answer is that Sword of Damocles is scum. And their scumbuddy is one of {lilith, racefan}, probably racefan.

Ranger, did you read NM's flip?

Yes.

I don't see it changing my analysis.
If Not_Mafia wasn't the nightkill, nothing I've said has significantly changed. My argument for the scum on the wagon remains, albeit without that point in its favor.
If Not_Mafia was the nightkill, my argument for the scum on the wagon remains, with that point backing it up.
We can't tell which it was, now, though, can we?

[Ranger]

Her case is shitty and based on 'if hypothetical thing x y and z, then H is true, so let's focus on H as a fact'.

Wrong.

BlueBloodedToffee is town because of both his D1 and D2 content.
This is not a hypothetical read. Hard read, off of content.
You are a townread because I felt your play was sincere.
This is not a hypothetical read. Hard read, off of content.
Yume is a weak townread because I got a gut read that was town.
This is not a hypothetical read, although it is one that is not a hard read either.
lilith is a null read.
Obviously not hypothetical.
racefan is a mild scumread, off of what he's posted.
This is not a hypothetical read.

Sword of Damocles is a hard scumread. They were a scumread off of their D1 content, they continue to be a scumread off of their D2 content.
This is not a hypothetical read.

Hypotheticals have factored in, yes.
As

strengthening

the read.

Basic theory says one-on, one-off is the most likely.
racefan (and lilith to some extent) was on.
Sword of Damocles was off.
Conclusion: lynch Sword.

[Ranger]

What Sword said.

Oh, do tell what Sword said.
I eagerly await.

I mean, ranger's prolly going to be my vote.

How about...no.

I am being far more forceful than my usual easygoing self.

^He literally lays out why he's being scum right here.
Like I said.
This is

not

a town-Aristophanes.

[Ranger]

MOD: V/LA for today, maybe tomorrow.

Don't have the time to post today, probably will have the time tomorrow but may not, circumstances depending.

[Ranger]

I can't work out if I'm grumpy today or if ranger's explanation still boiled down to

I haven't explained my read at all.

I've explained some basic extra stuff. I suppose you could call it commentary. Commentary says that, yes, 1 on/off is the most probable reason, by simple probability. Commentary says some reads are stronger than others. But I haven't actually made my case on Sword of Damocles yet. Because nobody, aside from Sword of Damocles themselves, has actually asked me to.

[Ranger]

Sword of Damocles is my top scumread easily, BBT is a lesser scumread
Ranger and racefan are fairly strong townread
Everyone else is nullish

Yeah, SirCakez is town.

In fact I doubt whether Ranger would have the guts to townread her partner before she even posted.

The logical conclusion from this for a town player would be an unvote and to reassess whether I would even be scum in the first place. "Ranger/Yume would be unlikely because Ranger wouldn't townread her partner"->Ranger townread Yume/SirCakez->At least one of {Ranger, Yume/SirCakez} is probably town->Unvote, to reassess reads.

This is something that both heads, but Something_smart in particular, have done before as town.

They did not.

VOTE: Ranger

Helpful hint, wait to fakehammer until the player you're fakehammering is actually in-thread, because you're not gonna have a chance at garnering a reaction otherwise.

I feel no pressure at this L-1, since I already suspect both scum are on it.

[Ranger]

I'm gonna Intent to hammer here.

If you're expecting a claim, you're not gonna get one.

Like I said.

Sword of Damocles is scum.
And I think racefan is scum as well.
So go ahead.

My lynch will do the speaking for me.

Ranger feels super awkward and isn't really pushing anything.

What game are you reading?
Certainly not this one, because I've been HARD pushing Sword of Damocles since the beginning of the day, and soft-pushing racefan.
Also, anti-pushing softly players like SirCakez/Yume among others.

[Ranger]

Noting that you have not yet posted anything since the intent to hammer, I would invite you to make this case (if you have anything more than what you posted in 172).

Amended statement: nobody aside from my scumreads has asked me for my case on Sword of Damocles.

I wouldn't be as confident on this if it wasn't Ranger.

Speaking of confidence...

both

heads of Sword of Damocles have seen me as town and as scum before, often enough that their first instinct shouldn't be "yeah, Ranger's scum", but rather, "I can't read Ranger yet".

Spoiler: Aristophanes games

1. Blitz 18 (town-me)
2. Blitz 25 (scum-me)
3. Micro 590 (town-me)
4. Fire and Ice (town-me)
5. Rap battle (scum-me)
6. Yuk it Buttercup (town-me, though admittedly Aristo was dead by the time I came in)
7. Grand Idea (town-me)
8. Buzzfeed (scum-me)
9. This game's predecessor (town-me)
10. Plotinus mafia (town-me)
11. Freedom's call (town-me)
12. Nightless Vengeful (town-me)

Aristophanes has seen me many games. This matches none of my scum games and many of my town ones listed above. Something_Smart has a few of the above games as well listed. The full list for him?

1. White Flag (though admittedly he was dead by then, it was town-me)
2. Fire and Ice (town-me)
3. Worst Role Ideas (town-me)
4. This game's predecessor (town-me)
5. Freedom's Call (town-me)
6. C9++ (town-me)
7. Carbon 14 (scum-me)

While there is some superficial (and it is exactly that) resemblance to Carbon 14, Iso me here. Very importantly, Iso me here. Iso through 32 here. (Not beyond that, just my first posts, through to 32.) And iso me here.

Given my contributions here, from both heads, you would normally be seeing caution. You would be seeing uncertainty. You would be seeing them reference these games, and trying to point out how this game

isn't

like them if they were genuinely concerned about me. Yet after I in no uncertain terms told them they were a scumread, not just one head, but

both

heads began

insisting

that, for some reason, this MUST be my scum play.

This play does not match the town-Aristophanes I know.
In my experience, it also does not match the town-Something_Smart I know.

It is, however, a match for the Aristophanes I've seen as scum.

[Ranger]

^Short version: By all experience Aristophanes has had, I should be null-at-worst.
By Something_Smart's experience, seeing Carbon 14 would be enough to hold some superficial suspicion of me, but he would not be painting it as a holy grail of my scum game. He'd be insisting that he doesn't hold enough experience to say for sure. (This is what he does as town, which he is not doing this game.)

Their read on me is OMGUS with a mixture of false bravado and empty accusations against me.

Because as far as I've seen the case on me is, "Ranger is scum. Her case on us is wrong. We admit that Ranger's playing to her normal style," (no, seriously, 120 says as much) "...But she's still scum. Because she thinks there's one scum on the wagon and one scum off the wagon, which is definitely not in any way a reasonable conclusion!"

No. Seriously. That's it. That's the entirety of their case on me. I'm scum because my read on them is wrong and my conclusion of "one on, one off" is unreasonable. (Which...runs contrary to just about...oh, you know. Almost every micro ever.)

[Ranger]

Lynching Ranger is hard.

Literally every time this logic has been used, and I do mean, EVERY time this logic has been used, I have been town.

Players wagon me.

Insist, "If Ranger were town, it wouldn't be this hard to get a lynch on her!"

I get lynched.

And, presto!
I flip town.

The players using this logic are, unfortunately, usually town themselves.

I do think it's not solid enough to townread a slot that hasn't even posted.

Except my reason for townreading Yume was not based on that logic at all.
I had a scumread on Sword of Damocles.
I had a gut-townread on Yume, from how others were treating the slot.
The two combined with the one-on/off theory, but the one-on/off theory was not the basis of the townread.

[Ranger]

What happened to this game :?
Ari and I discussed and we're willing to bet the game on Ranger being scum.
Hammer her, and we're okay with hanging and costing town the game tomorrow if she flips town.

And then, immediately after...

I don't really have more to say because I've reached the point where I don't think I'm going to gain any information that will change my mind by continuing to press Ranger.

^We get this.

[Ranger]

Where the heck is everyone?

Lurking.

VOTE: race
i can do this

So can I.

VOTE: racefan.

WTF is with this last minute counterwagon?? Why does this always happen! Are we really this afraid of commitment!? Like, 3 wagons simultaneously at L-2 with 2 days left? Let's just lynch ScumRanger and figure everyone else out tomorrow!

This could literally not be any more transparently scum trying desperately to save their scumbuddy.

And then we get the other head, doing much the same.

The lynch today is either {Sword of Damocles, racefan}. No other wagon is acceptable.

[Ranger]

That post is concerned, not scum.

As if the two are mutually exclusive.

Your vote us shit and is scum saving their own ass by swinging it to a mandatory lynch pool where they aren't even considered. I see right through you!

Right, my vote couldn't

possibly

have

anything

to do with my racefan scumread.

If we were scum, I'd vote Race right here, no 2nd thoughts.

Yeah, there's just one problem with that scenario.

[Ranger]

I'm around now, if we want to switch back to Sword of Damocles I can do that, but otherwise I'm leaving my vote on racefan. Either one would be an acceptable lynch, and we should be lynching one of them. It's just a matter of choosing which one.