Micro 618 {Over}

[karnos]

Confirming I got my role and alignment.

[karnos]

VOTE: BulletNLynchproof

Important reasons!

Also, going to be absent most of the day, my monthly D&D session, I'll get caught up later tonight probably.

[karnos]

Not sure if the game slowed down... or if everyone is just talking in whispers...

[karnos]

This is a new experience for me. You see, I always seem to attract a bunch of votes at the start of a game, due to my posting style. That leads to defending myself, which creates opportunities to catch scum. I don't know how to deal with this "nobody voting for karnos" meta.

[karnos]

If a wolf could invite me into a quicktopic, that would be appreciated. I have an important question.

[karnos]

VOTE: BTD That makes L-1 by my count.

Please don't hammer BTD immediately unless you are a wolf. Let him stew for a bit.

[karnos]

You realize this is a micro game right? L-1 in a micro game is about the same as L-2 in a larger game. There are only 2 scum. I put BTD at L-1 because I'd LOVE to see a scum quick-hammer him, it would rip the game wide open and give town a free lynch tomorrow. I trust my fellow town to not hammer needlessly. I also saw some value in seeing exactly how BTD reacted to the sudden wagon.

But now all that is for naught.

[karnos]

TBH, I didn't even see BNL's post when I posted that. I don't want him at L-1 because I've heard of scum "accidently" hammering really early and I've seen really stupid claims this early.

How did you miss the ninja post notification?

There's nothing L-1 does that L-2 doesn't do and only bad things come from L-1 this early in my experience. Links coming...

A sole scum can hammer an L-1, but can't do the same at L-2, that is one think L-1 does that L-2 doesn't. If you want to make an omelette, you have to break a few eggs. If you want to catch a wolf, you might have to offer it a tasty morsel. I'm fine with trading BTD for a wolf, are you not?

(Remember, the wolves do not have a night kill ability. The only way they can win is by pushing some miss lynches.)

[karnos]

The BTD 6 wagon is not producing anything here. We need some serious more posting.
Like seriously.

Of course it's not. He knows there is no real risk of getting lynched, especially since we had people jump off the wagon as soon as it hit L-1.

If you are trying to wagon someone for pressure, you can't expect good results if you are willing to jump off the wagon as soon as it gets big enough to actually work.

[karnos]

It's not about whether he had anything to worry about, exactly. It's about whether he KNEW he had anything to worry about. Now that he knows there was no real worry, it changes his reactions, even if you put him back at L-1.

Do you think it's strange no one seems to want him at L-1?

Strange, no, it's a typical play style here. I think most players are playing a little too safe, afraid of looking a little scummy themselves, so it makes it easier for the scum to hide. But it's a micro game, and the wolves have no night kill. I don't think this game should be played the same way more standard setup based games are.

[karnos]

I'm not sure, but I am thinking there might be some sort of way to break the setup and nearly guarantee a town win.

"The werewolves do not possess a factional nightkill. Instead, upon the first werewolf lynch, the werewolf may vengekill two town players."

Question: if both wolves are killed at once, does the vengekill still occur or does town win? For example, 5 town are alive. The deadline hits with a 3-way tie between both wolves and one villager. Does town win, or do the wolves still get to venge kill and turn it into a tie?

[karnos]

Oh never mind, there can never be a lynch of more than one player. That won't work at all.

[karnos]

Not strongly, I was voting him to provide a service:

Can we wagon BTD please? I'm not comfortable with a townread of mine running up time as the highest wagon while BTD is looking scummy and laying low content-wise. If BNL's town then that's exactly what the wolves want to happen here.

[karnos]

Potentially, if we have a town cop, there is a breaking strategy we could use.

All claim. Cop investigates each night, each day we lynch a claimed VT unless the cop hits scum. Even then, we could continue the strategy, because by letting that scum sit we could continue to investigate, denying them the vengekill on the cop option. Or even better, we just do a no lynch each day, but I'm not certain that is possible.

Obvious flaw: if we don't have a cop, and a wolf claims cop, we will just lynch all our VT and the cop will either feed us a fake hit or never hit scum. I'd guess that this was thought of in balance, and the game might not have a cop, or maybe one of the wolves is immune investigation.

[karnos]

Chip, sounds good to me. If we have a cop or something that indefinite peace turns into a slow town win.

[karnos]

I honestly dislike the resistance to the BTD wagon. There's nothing I see redeemable about his slot and I don't mind putting him at L-1 this early. Especially considering the Wolves don't have nightkills, I'm not very worried about lynching too fast. Bulletproof's discrediting of the wagon in particular felt iffy. Not sure if they were white knighting or defending a partner, but BP's slot is definitely on my watch list now.

What I find interesting is that you have a problem with BNL's complaint against the fast L-1 wagon, but you don't mention Murdercat at all... when he had the exact same complaint, posted later.

We have this...

I have to say, that wagon looks a bit quick, guys...

Yes, the wagon seems a lot quicker than usual, and I feel that BTD6 is town with scum on his wagon, solely due to the speed of the wagon. Kinda reminds me of this.

And then we have this...

VOTE: Karnos

Off the top of my head I can think of two games where scum went to a really early L-1, and I only have 5 completed games.

Plus I don't want him at L-1.

And...

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7785107
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7886595

Both of those are scum going to L-1 on town. I think scum is generally more ok with going to L-1 early on.

It's like murdercat wanted to exactly copy BNL's post, and even provided a link to a game just like BNL, yet he didn't even acknowledge that he was copying BNL. This really rubs me a scummy thing to do. And yet D&A seem to completely miss the post by murdercat, even while calling out BNL for making an identical post.

D&A + murdercat scum team? Too early to say, but I'm at least curious what the rest of you think of this theory.

[karnos]

MURDER is right also

I missed this. D&A did mention murdercat... in a positive light. BNL and Murdercat made essentially the exact same point, yet BNL is scumread for it and murdercat is "right" for it... inconsistent, anyone?

[karnos]

Chip specifically asked me for links. You are stretching.

And why didn't you just link him to BNL's post? Do you really expect us to believe you thought the theory was completely original to you?

[karnos]

different contexts. BP was the first to derail, and he did so right away. MURDER was just on board with the sentiment after consideration.

-Ariadne

I agree, different contexts. But I would tend to view the "me too!" copycat post as the one more likely to be scum, while you have made the exact opposite read.

[karnos]

Nah, lets not waste time. I'll hammer BTD if he doesn't start speaking soon.

[karnos]

Nah, lets not waste time. I'll hammer BTD if he doesn't start speaking soon.

If you hammer and he flips town, I'll want your head, I hope you know that.

VOTE: BTD6_Maker

BOOM!

[karnos]

Ok, so that is a claim and counterclaim. Which one do we lynch first?

[karnos]

UNVOTE: for now. Probably will end up lynching BTD, but let's hear whatever he wants to say first.

[karnos]

Think about this a moment. BTD wolf, D&A seer. If the previous is correct, and we lynch BTD, you know the vengekill will kill D&A. Not exactly optimal.

I am not saying we should purposely kill a VT instead of a known wolf, but maybe we should look for the other wolf instead of taking the easy lynch today.

There is no nightkill, so if we guess wrong then the seer can work for a night, while if we do guess correctly and find the wolf #2, then it doesn't matter that our seer gets vengekilled since we can just move on and lynch BTD day 2.

[karnos]

At this point, it's pro-wolf to hammer BTD, if he is a wolf, because they would want to be able to use the vengekill now. Do not hammer unless you want to be identified as a wolf.

[karnos]

I don't know what to believe, TBH.

BTD being wolf makes sense, in that he would have to be really un-observant to really not notice it was a fake hammer, and so he made a fake claim to get the fake hammer removed and avoid getting real hammered.

However, if BTD is a wolf and D&A is being honest, there is ZERO incentive for D&A to come out as seer before the vengekill occurs, it just doesn't make sense- that is a pure suicide move.

So either BTD really is a seer and just dropped the ball on votemath, or D&A really is a seer and made a huge error by outing her role before the vengekills occured.

[karnos]

But D&A claim makes no sense as town or scum.

BTD is obv scum now and you are obv town, IMO.

(Also, I totally bought the fake hammer, mostly because sick made it seem like a hammer so I didn't really look.)

It makes sense as scum if she knew it wasn't a real hammer, while faking to pretend she thought it was a real hammer.

[karnos]

Really, it doesn't matter too much. If BTD flips town, we know D&A is scum. So I guess the scum incentive is pretty slim even then. It's a play error any way you look at it.

[karnos]

BTD, at least pretend you are a townie on the verge of being lynched. Who do you see as the scum? Who do you have a strong town read on?

[karnos]

Note: if there is a real seer out there, (not you D&A) you can claim without coming out in the thread. Send a whisper to me, or if you don't trust me send a whisper to Chip Butty.

Of course there is no guarantee the setup has a seer at all, so this doesn't prove anything if nobody comes out... but I think it's worth counterclaiming this way if it helps us nail down the correct lynch today 100%.

[karnos]

Actually, lets make it easy:

If there is a seer out there, send me a whisper to counterclaim. You should trust me because

1- if you are out there, you know BTD is one of the wolves.

and...

2- if I betray you or lie, then you know I am wolf #2

So either you successfully counterclaim BTD without coming out, or you counterclaim him and out me as a wolf and town wins. There is no risk here, don't even need to involve chip butty.

[karnos]

That runs the risk of a wolf whispering you and fakeclaiming.

No. Because if it's fake claim, then I will reveal who the wolf was and we lynch him.

[karnos]

Also, again this is just a hypothetical but Chip and Karnos could both be scum.

Then both D&A and you would have to be town. Frankly I find that extremely unlikely given the previous events.

[karnos]

I am not against lynching murdercat, he is probably among my top 3 for scum, but I would like to wait a bit and make sure there isn't a seer counterclaim or anything of the sort first.

[karnos]

I full support the murdercat wagon, but I want to wait a little bit longer in case the "real" seer wants to counterclaim through a whisper.

[karnos]

Then again, we really don't have a lot of time, and it's fairly likely that there isn't even a seer in the setup.

MURDERCAT LYNCH

Pro- might be a wolf

Con- if he is a wolf, he might vengekill our seer

Pro- if he is a wolf, and he doesn't vengekill BTD, that is some very interesting information

Pro- might be a VT, letting our seer do some work

Con- we lynch a VT

Pro- moves the game forward

Con- we should use all the time we have available


Overall, I think it's probably a good move to lynch murdercat, but lets see what the lurking players think. We should also discuss investigation. BTD, not sure if you are confused, but investigating murdercat isn't going to do much good if he is lynched.

[karnos]

We don't want a counterclaim. If we lynch scum they will just venge or block the counter.

I think we do want a counterclaim, if it's done through whisper. No vengekill then, unless I am the wolf. But if I was the wolf, and there was a counterclaim, then you would know me and BTD are the two wolves and town wins even with a dead seer.

Basically, it's safe to whisper me with a counterclaim.

[karnos]

BTD, you are thinking about this backwards.

If D&A is scum and we lynch, you will die to the vengekill and there will be no investigations of anything.

If murdercat is scum, we probably found both scum so it doesn't matter if a seer dies to the vengekill.

If murdercat is town, you can investigate someone and we will see how things go from there.

[karnos]

Is it even possible that D&A and BTD could both be scum? Would they dare be so bold? I doubt it, but there are huge inconsistencies from both of them.

[karnos]

Basically I simply don't see why you need to believe or distrust a claim because if it was really a hammer his claim being real or fake didn't matter.

This.

If BTD was hammered, there is no need to verify or counterclaim him or whatever. D&A knew it was a fake hammer, I am convinced of that much. The only question in my mind is whether she is scum going for an opportune lynch, or an overzealous towny willing to lie to push a lynch on someone she thinks (but can't know) is scum.

[karnos]

Let's just lynch me, everyone seems to have a scum read on me so I'm getting lynched at some point anyway and we let the "seer" work for a night. If he comes up empty then you guys can lynch him.

Instead of resigning to your fate, how about chiming in with your opinion of what all is going down?

Do you think BTD or D&A are scum? Or both? Neither?

[karnos]

. Quite frankly I was positive we would be at the top of BTD's vengekill list

I never actually claimed Seer. I was baiting the vengekill.

These two lines, taken together, bother me.

[karnos]

Why would you claim seer to bait the vengekill if you were already positive you were on top of BTD's kill list? It's unnecessary.

[karnos]

Explain it like I am five.

[karnos]

The other thing that bothers me is you think it's absurd for the setup to have a seer in it. Okay, I don't disagree. But if you don't think there is a seer, what power-role do you think it does have to make it so important to bait the kill yourself?

Are you not confident in your ability to scum hunt, so you would rather get killed and let the rest of us try to find wolf #2? In your last few posts, it seems like you are VERY confident in your skills, so it's really puzzling that you would want to sacrifice yourself in place of a potentially questionable town player.

[karnos]

Quite frankly I was positive we would be at the top of BTD's vengekill list though.

When I read this, this is the meaning I get:

D&A thought they were already on top of the list for BTD to kill, so there the drawback of outing themselves as seer and getting vengekilled wasn't a drawback- they were going to get vengekilled even without outing themselves.

From the last few posts, I understand D&A meant it as:

D&A meant that the move was done purposely to get on top of the vengekill list.

The weird thing to me is that this post came before D&A admitted it was a lie. That is why I took the first interpretation rather than the second.

[karnos]

There is one more possibility because of the unique setup, but your position might have clouded your thought process.
I seriously can't give any reads because my laptop is broken and you all know how hard it is to write messages when you use a phone that is shorter than your finger.
If it's worth anything, i think Karnos's "whisper me or Chip if you are a seer" is scummy as fuck and you gave up on that too easily. That's the thing that pinged me the most in this game so far.

You are going to have to walk me through this. I don't see a scenario where scum!me could take advantage of this without it simply becoming a 1 for 1 trade and getting lynched.

[karnos]

BTD: can you at least confirm your seer claim?

You aren't going to backpedal and claim you are actually a VT pulling a gambit, are you?

[karnos]

Not saying I believe this, but say you are a wolf and no one PMs. Then you say someone PM'd, kill BTD and he flips seer. Then you say something like MC PM'd me, he is scum who wanted seer dead! People probably buy it because you are being town read by everyone. That lets you trade for seer plus me plus the vengekills which is pretty good.

Okay. Of course I could have just hammered BTD for real when D&A asked for a hammer and got him killed without implicating myself, but I guess in a weird twisted sort of way someone might try to pull what you are suggesting.

[karnos]

Well, MC is my choice for second wolf, so I don't mind taking him to

L-1

.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

But why leave D&A? Why would you rather vote Murdercat than D&A, having both as scum?

The strategy being, find both scum on day 1, kill the less likely scum first.

That way, if somehow BTD's claim is legit, we get a night of seering if we guessed wrong. And if we guess right, then we lynch the likely wolf tomorrow and win.

It's probably not going to be *that* easy, but the strategy is sound, is it not?

[karnos]

Hmm. I was going to vote murdercat to bring him to L-1, but I'll wait a bit since he is V/LA anyway. I don't agree with most of what BTD wrote earlier, in 386 , sounds like a lot of scum logic, but I still don't want to lynch him first.

[karnos]

Whoops, I should have responded to that on my own.

At the time, I didn't have a strong scum read on BTD. If I wanted to be specific, I could say I read him as a little scummy, but I always seem to read BTD as scummy, so I figured I was just reading him as I always do and didn't have a strong opinion on his alignment.

Anyway, I voted BTD based on the urging of Jae, but at the same time I thought it was a good idea because it provided useful information either way. I figured if BTD was town, we would give him a chance to explain and/or claim, and if he was scum we might see some signs of that under the pressure of being one vote away from lynch. I'm starting to realize not many players share my opinion that sometimes voting null or null/town reads can lead to a positive information gain for town, but it is what it is.

Of course now after the L-1, the unvotes, the revotes, the fake hammer, and all the spewing, my read has changed dramatically. BTD is probably scum, IMO, but I do see value in keeping him alive for another day at least, while hunting the other wolf.

[karnos]

What is better, lynching a Townie and keeping the Seer or lynching a scum and losing the Seer? It's a trade-off here.

If keeping a Seer is good, there is no point in lynching anyone but the Towniest person. (This is very rare in other games, but the Vengekill mechanic makes it a possibility, albeit unlikely).

If lynching scum is good, lynch the most likely scum and risk losing me.

Either way, there is no point to deliberately lynching the second scummiest. Murdercat still is scummy to me but D&A is my real lynch target. It's a viable lynch and the voting mechanics make it much better to vote for your top scum than to compromise.

Also, investigating a weaker scumread gives strictly more information to Town than investigating the top scum. If I investigate D&A, I will most likely just be confirming my suspicion and I would support a lynch even without an investigation. If I investigate Murdercat, it could go either way. If scum, we lynch him and if Town, we know he is conftown.

Overall, your logic is flawed.

There are just all kinds of problems with the above.

We lynch the 2nd best lynch target because if it is indeed a wolf, then there is a great chance both wolves have been found, so a seer vengekill is irrelevant.

And sure, in a vacuum it might make sense to investigate scumread #2. Except this isn't a vacuum- this is a game where scumread #2 is likely being lynched. Investigating the dead isn't going to accomplish anything.

On the other hand, I didn't like Karnos' fake hammer and subsequent reaction to my claim. He seemed to try to push for my lynch despite my claim, with no genuine counterclaim.

I find it odd you would say that. The only reason you didn't get real hammered is because I unvoted. I could have revoted and hammered you if I just wanted you lynched.

I'm not trying to push for your lynch, today. But I am suggesting you remain a top lynch choice. I don't think there will be a counterclaim because of the breaking strategy that could exist with a seer. I think it's unlikely a seer role even exists in this setup, because a non-voting town could prevent anyone from getting lynched while letting the seer work each night, and guarantee a town win. The alternative being a seer exists but the scum have an immune-investigation role seems just a bit silly to me, but potentially could be the case, so that is the only reason I am not pushing for your lynch today.

[karnos]

Now vote BNL with me, por favor.

My vote is reserved for murdercat, I just want to wait until he is off V/LA to place it.

[karnos]

Ok so I think BNL is scum with BTD. How anyone could ever believe that cop claim is beyond me, the only thing that makes sense is that BTD is some sort of scum PR that BNL wants to keep alive for a night (maybe that's why BTD is so convinced there is an RB?)


The vote on me was opportunistic and just plain bad.

I will vote here at deadline if needed, but I still think we should vote obv scum BTD.

Do you really think that BNL would put his own neck on the line to keep his scum-buddy alive for one extra night, in a game confirmed to only contain 2 scum?

Is anything wrong with BTD's claim?

Yes. The setup is broken with a cop. The setup is also broken with a cop and scum roleblocker, because the cop can out his reads in a whisper after confirming a town and never needs to reveal his role to the game. The setup isn't completely broken with an alpha wolf, but I feel like that is getting into tinfoil conspiracy theory land. Why bother to add a cop if you are also adding a role to ignore the cops power?

That said, I'd say there is about a 5% chance the claim is legit, and even that small chance makes it worth looking at someone else first, instead of immediately lynching BTD. With no factional night-kill, we could theoretically try to break the setup from day 2+, if nobody votes. Worst case scenario, BTD is lying and we don't get any info, I don't see the harm in trying.

[karnos]

VOTE: Murdercat

[karnos]

I already gave you my speculation. Another possibility would be that lynching is actually compulsive so if no one at all votes a random player is lynched.

Either way, RB is certain. In a setup favouring Town even without PRs, two scum PRs are likely.

It's possible, but we shouldn't speculate on it when we could just ask the mod.

And I strongly disagree that RB is certain. With whisper mechanic, role-blocker should be nearly useless, because power roles don't need to reveal themselves to be useful. You did, but that doesn't mean every power role would.

[karnos]

How about we just lynch scum twice? Why are things easier if we do town first then scum? In mylo people no lynch to reduce the lynch pool, I think that hitting for sure scum today does a similar thing.

Oh, I agree, we should lynch someone we think is scum. But there should be two scum, and looking for another scum instead of lynching BTD first seems like a smart plan to me.

[karnos]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: karnos

I finally have a scumread. I am suspicious of his townread on me and I think he could be scum white knighting, considering I have not been townie and almost all the other players are scumreading me. I also didn't like his earlier buddying of me.

Did I say I townread you? I don't think you could be BTD's scum partner, but if BTD is town there is certainly a scenario where you could be scum.

In general, it takes a lot for me to be convinced someone is town, I think it's best to just look for the most obvious scum and prioritize that way. This game is a little bit different because of the vengekill mechanic.

[karnos]

This is not an open setup. We can't simply ask the mod.

I'm pretty sure we can ask, but the mod may choose to not answer.

"If no majority exists, the player with the highest vote total is lynched. In a tie, it's whoever held the highest vote total prior to the tie."

That could be interpreted as lynching the player who had the highest vote total on the previous day, which would kill a no-vote strategy, unless the no-vote strategy was used from day 1 and on. In other words, too late for this game.

[karnos]

BTW, BTD: are you unable to respond to quicktopic messages, or are you just ignoring me?

[karnos]

Looking at the rules again...

"In a tie, it's whoever held the highest vote total prior to the tie."

Technically, this would be BTD. He was the first person to be at L-1, and in any case of a tie he held the highest vote total prior to the tie.

However, I think the intended rule might be "among those tied", so that BTD wouldn't automatically get lynched if the tied players were tied for more votes than his current tally of votes.

The nice thing about the ruleset is there is no chance of a no-lynch due to inactivity. Don't feel pressured to vote someone you don't want to vote just to get a lynch in- a lynch is guaranteed to occur.

Time for me to leave work, but I will check back and vote accordingly before day end.

[karnos]

BTW, BTD: are you unable to respond to quicktopic messages, or are you just ignoring me?

No response? Come on, it's a very straightforward question.

[karnos]

What? I never suggested lynching town deliberately. My point has always been we should lynch the second most likely scum, saving most likely scum for our next lynch.

I would find your misrepresentation of my argument scummy, but I'm wondering if you are just sore from our last game.

BTW, for the record BTD did respond in my quicktopic finally.

[karnos]

Actually, charloux. hmm.

[karnos]

VOTE: Dionysus and Ariadne

If she flips town, lynch BTD maker tomorrow. She was willing to take the vengekill, so she shouldn't mind getting lynched if it guarantees BTD is lynched tomorrow, right?

If she flips scum, lynch JaeReed tomorrow, I'll probably get killed by the vengekill.

Of course this is all dependent on how the vote goes, if the above are a scum team as I am contemplating, they could switch and lynch me at will. I'm hoping town is smart enough to see that happen and vote accordingly tomorrow.

[karnos]

7.5 hours to deadline, I'm thinking my vote isn't going to make a difference. At least with the setup being what it is, we don't have to worry about nightkills.

I hope I am wrong, but I really don't think BNL has been acting scummy.

BulletNLynchproof (4) Murdercat ReallySick Dionysus and Ariadne JaeReed (L-1)

At least one scum pushing that wagon, possibly both.

[karnos]

Considering the setup, I won't necessarily be

furious

if you force a NL, but I would strongly discourage it. I dunno if Ranger did anything to this effect, but games generally have some way of punishing towns that don't kill. For example, scum might have a rolecop. And really, I don't see a reason to draw shit out any longer. We need a flip. BNL is that flip. He's scum.

-Ariadne

Read the setup. There is no no-lynch if there has been at least one vote per cycle. Whoever has the most votes wins. If there is a tie, whoever had the higher total first wins. There is absolutely no way to have a no-lynch today.

If this wasn't already brought up in the thread multiple times, this might be an excusable newbie error. Since it has already been discussed, ad nauseam, I think this is just another scum tell from you. Actually, it's incredibly obvious scum tell- if it was possible to no lynch, with a claimed seer in the game, there is ZERO reason to not try for that no-lynch, and instead you are acting like it would be a bad thing. And you aren't even trying to lynch the seer claim anymore.

This is ridiculously stupid. Don't line up lynches like this. Just lynch scum. I should be blatant town at this point and you should get off your dumb vanity wagon.

-Araidne

I'm going to be asleep long before the day ends. I have to share my thoughts now because I don't want to be silenced forever if you decide to switch to my wagon to lynch me. Of course now that the idea has been brought up it would be really tough for you to do that without totally incriminating yourself, so I have less to worry about now.

But why are you so worried? If you are confident in your lynch choice of BNL, you will be exonerated when he flips scum, since the setup only allows for 2 wolves. You only have reason to be concerned if you already know BNL is going to flip as town.

[karnos]

Someone please announce if you'll be around at deadline so that we don't all sleep and miss a hammer (I know we get a lynch anyway, but it feels weird to leave it open like that, I want a full wagon of votes to look at).

Then again, here is someone else who either totally missed ALL the discussion about how the lynching vote works, or is trying to fake ignorance. Maybe it's just a dumbtell and not a scumtell, but I really don't like it from either Murdercat or D&A.

[karnos]

EDIT: Actually he understands how it works, but just doesn't want to let the wagon go until deadline. Weird, but not wrong exactly.

[karnos]

You're a damn fool. You're looking at all the wrong things. Please forget everything you think you know about scumhunting because it's honestly embarrassing to watch.

On the one hand, you are so unconfident in your own ability that you tried to sacrifice yourself as a fake seer to eat the vengekill, and you didn't even understand how the lynching works, but then now you are positive you are way better than me at scum hunting because I suspect you of being scum. Hmm.

If I'm so bad at scum hunting and you are so good, you have nothing to worry about- I'm sure you are right and BNL will flip scum and you will be vindicated.

I don't care much for setup speculation. I think BTD is clearly fake though.

But then why aren't you voting him?

[karnos]

what do you want? What is a good setup? It seems according to you, everything is simply wrong

All I know is a good setup can't be easily broken by town playing optimal. If there is an unlimited seer, town can break the game by seer remaining hidden and only outing himself in whisper after town-confirming a player, and then seering every other players while no-lynching. A roleblocker can't stop this breaking strategy.

In a setup with an alpha wolf, the same strategy can guarantee that town finds the non-alpha first, and then it's basically a 4vs1 game after lynching the alpha wolf and eating vengekills, which isn't completely broken but is still heavily favoring a town win.

Do you expect 7 Vanilla Townies + 2 Mafia goon? (ie. Mountanious)

I don't know, I thought the cool thing about the setup was the whisper mechanic and the lack of a normal night kill. It doesn't need a ton of power roles to make things fun. That said, there are plenty of roles that could fit without allowing a breaking strategy, unlimited seer just isn't one of them.

[karnos]

If I'm so bad at scum hunting and you are so good, you have nothing to worry about- I'm sure you are right and BNL will flip scum and you will be vindicated.

I never said I was good. I'm saying you're doing it downright

awful

.
[/quote]

But I am the one who essentially outed BTD, and you seem positive he is scum. You really don't have anything to worry about if you are scum hunting well, BNL will flip scum and town wins. My theory should be completely irrelevant to your superior play, because you can just stuff it in my nose when BNL flips.

Unless, of course, you already know BNL is going to flip town.

[karnos]

The things you're trying to paint me as scum with are absolutely stupid. That's my point. You think BTD is scum and yet you think I CC'd him to get him lynched? Do you realize how ludicrous that sounds? There's no possible way I'm partners with BTD; if I had gotten him lynched earlier in the day I would have been outted as soon as I wasn't vengekilled.

If you are scum, you are scum with JaeReed.

If BTD is scum, then I have no reason to suspect either of you.

[karnos]

Obviously BTD is going to have some "result" that we won't be able to prove or disprove, and it will just be his word against the person he claimed to investigate.

But I still think D&A is the scum, and JaeReed is the scum partner. Just some strong tells that I would never expect to see from a town player.

[karnos]

VOTE: Murdercat

Murdercat is Guilty.

Well this is shocking, I was pretty sure about my suspected scum team, apparently I made a mistake. Of course BTD could be scum lying, but in retrospect there is this:

VOTE: BTD

Target and results please.

WTF was this?

Murdercat, are you going to pretend you had no idea about the no-vote strategy? Start of the day, immediately places a vote, so we can't attempt a non-vote no-lynch day to let the "seer" work a little?

Dumb town, or scum just coming out as scum in the most obvious way? I don't know.

We lynch murdercat, if he comes back town we lynch BTD tomorrow. I'm not going to vote immediately, I want to see some discussion regarding the above.

[karnos]

And, FWIW, I've been doing a lot of thinking about the seer claim. It doesn't make a lot of sense for balance reasons, but there is one bit that makes me want to believe BTD.

Why would we have a 48 hour night cycle if there is no night power roles? That one aspect of the game makes me second guess my initial thoughts, and I have to admit the existence of a seer is at least possible.

[karnos]

For anyone wondering about my paranoia here, in my room with Karnos last night it sounded like gloating scum. The very first thing was a comment on BNL flipping what he said he'd flip, basically.

Gloating town and gloating scum sound pretty similar, the difference is town doesn't care about his gloating being revealed.

Your buddy, who you are calling an innocent child, LIED to try to get BTD lynched. That is how positive she was that BTD was scum. Yet a little bit latter she was happy to jump wagons to BNL, and lynch him, with basically no case at all.

That is pure scum motivation. I was pretty sure you were her partner, as it's the only think that made sense of your silly "innocent child" claim, but maybe just maybe you had the wool pulled completely over your eyes. Either way, D&A is scum. With murdercat, as it may be.

[karnos]

I told him not to vote D&A. My read on her is equivalent to Innocent Child to me. I'd imagine that's what the blackmailed not to part was about, because I told him I want my strongest town read alive.

Why? Can you share the exact read? What post of D&A's convinced you, not that she is merely town, but that she is absolutely confirmed town with no possibility of you being wrong?

And, really, the weird thing to me is that you claimed this in a topic as early as 7pm EST on June 15th. But then on June 16th at 6:40 pm, you told me you don't share a whisper topic with D&A. Whoa, huge red flag. You honestly expect me to believe that up until that point, you were perfectly happy to share your theories and bounce ideas off me, instead of someone you said was essentially mod-confirmed town to you?

That made no sense to me whatsoever.

[karnos]

God your reads are stupid...

Scum, or town that likes to lynch fellow town. Either way you need to by lynched after murdercat.

[karnos]

The fact that you still can't see the town motivation in my play is seriously confounding. It's like your a little child, covering their ears and closing their eyes and screaming "LALALALALALA" when the blatant fact that I'm town is presented to you.

If you are town motivated, then you are just bad.

After we lynch your partner murdercat, you are next.

[karnos]

That is all really interesting, but how about you address the elephant in the room?

600

[karnos]

I have a lot of points to make, but I want to check up on a few things in private whispers first.

[karnos]

@BTD you're sticking with your claim? This is a one time free out. If you are a VT then say so now.

This is very weird to me. On day 1, BTD gave his claim, and D&A was so sure it was BS they lied to try to get him lynched. You said yourself your thinking was the same and you would have done the same thing in D&A's place, and that is why D&A is obv town to you.

Okay. But now BTD's claim is a step more serious, he has a guilty result, and now instead of assuming he is scum, you are willing to backpedal and let him have an out as a VT? I don't get it. In my mind it's pretty fucking clear: either Murdercat is indeed scum, or BTD is lying scum. There is no town motivation for a fake seer claim and a fake guilty result.

The *only* reason I could see why you want to give him an out is that you know he isn't scum- because you are. And if you pushed a lynch on him now, his flip would reveal a bit too much.

Also, i find this situation with BTD and Murder kinda sad. If he is guilty then we got scum, if he is town then BTD is scum, no?

Weird. I agree with your assessment, either BTD is correct and murdercat is scum, or BTD is scum, but why is catching scum sad?

All of her posts convinced me. She's not scum.

Didn't need a topic to know she's town.

Here is the thing: you were convinced BNL was scum, and before that you were convinced BTD was scum. So you being convinced of something really doesn't mean shit in the scheme of things, you have already shown that you can be wrong.

Really, the only way you could know she is town is if you are scum.

What the fuck JR, he just claimed a guilty and you think he is VT?

Your reaction to your wagon yesterday and to the guilty read as town to me.

Okay, so that is why you think BTD is lying, but instead of taking the logical conclusion that he is lyning as scum, you immediately offer him an out as VT. Why can't he be scum? Is it because you know who your scum partner is, and it isn't BTD?

I am starting to see the possibility that maybe D&A isn't scum with Jae, but I still see Jae as a scum, presumably with Murdercat.

[karnos]

If this is true you should be voting BTD end of story.

If I lynch Murdercat and Murdercat flips town, mafia will fry him like hell. If I lynch Murdercat and Murdercat flips maf, well he is genuine seer as it turned out--but like it matters because he's going down with the vengekill.

To quote a very famous Epic Mafia mantra: "Don't lynch either the cop or the cop target for more report" Which is perhaps one of the rare wise quote to came from there

The thing is, you make a good argument for why we shouldn't lynch BTD or Murdercat, but your argument does not require BTD to be a VT. Only Jae seems to make that leap.


Why?

Can he be a Vanilla Townie doing a gambit? I have pulled such gambit and that's why we're voting Karnos instead of Murdercat.

You did what?

[karnos]

Come On. I dare you to (hypothetically) bus him.

~Realeo

We have a week. Obviously I'm going to vote BTD or Murdercat, one of them is scum, but I don't want to rush things. Lynching a seer would suck. Lynching a guilty who flips town would suck equally. While I am leaning in favor of believing BTD's claim, I want to see a little more discussion before voting.

[karnos]

That's how a newb!PR acts from my own experience. BTD would not have claimed in the main thread. He would have claimed in various quicktopics with people he townread that were on his wagon.

Not reading the other game right now, I try to avoid meta-gaming based on other games unless I was personally part of the game.

That said, your claim doesn't make any sense to me. If BTD is a legit seer, he was also legit convinced he was hammered. There is no point in being coy about your role when you are already dead, so he wouldn't out himself in quicktopics, he would just post in the thread, as he did.

Besides that, there is some lag with quicktopics, if you are sitting at L-1 in thread and you don't want to get hammered you might not be willing to wait some time for ranger to log on and see the request for a topic. I think your argument is nonsense.

To be clear: I am not 100% convinced BTD is seer, but the problems I have with his claim are completely different from the nonsense argument you posted above.

[karnos]

Gambiting in this manner if you're a VT is anti-town as fuck, guys. Like holy shit. You're muddling shit up more than is necessary. This is not beneficial to town in the slightest.

Jae, yesterday, re: D&A's seer claim gambit:

Yes, and considering I was thinking of doing the

exact same thing

at the time I was reading BTD's claim because I didn't buy it for a second, she's town for it.

Why the change of heart?

[karnos]

I do not think he thought the hammer was legit. You made a huge deal about the whole if you're town don't hammer. There was a lot of discussion because of that. Then you expect him to believe that you hammered after all that? Sure, people forget. But the person put at L1 doesn't forget who put him there, I don't think (never been there so I can't know for sure, just running off basic theory here). Plus there are quicktopics and daychat for scum. The whole thing could have been an elaborate gambit.

But you thought D&A legit thought it was a real hammer? I thought you both had the same thinking, and that is why you town read D&A so hard. If they think different from your thinking, maybe you don't share an alignment after all...

[karnos]

I will confirm- I did suggest to BTD that he could try a gambit, if he really is the seer. He could give a false result, which the scum will know is false, and then the scum might inadvertently out themselves by saying something to confirm they know it's a false result. Alternatively, scum might reveal themselves by being over-eager to accept the claim and lynch the town, since having a seer result can be used as an excuse for the miss-lynch when it occurs.

Apparently, BTD told different results to some, and claimed he was actually a VT to others, which wasn't what I was expecting at all. The gambit is useful if he is really a seer giving a 100% wrong result, if he is actually just a VT making a guess, then his result could by chance actually be true, so that sort of ruins the experiment.

All that said and done, Jae responded to the gambit exactly in the way I would expect scum to respond- JR knew that murdercat wasn't scum, and also knew BTD wasn't scum, so tried to give BTD another out by suggesting the VT claim for one last time.

I don't know who JR's partner would be anymore, but I'm pretty sure Jae is one of the scum.

[karnos]

Because he believed that the scum is D&A and JaeReed. According to BTD, the plan is to whisper JaeReed and D&A innocent while claiming Murdercat is guilty. Why he proposed it is I have no idea?

~Realeo

Yeah, no.

The idea of the gambit was to whisper everyone else and tell them it's a gambit, don't actually hammer murdercat, etc. Don't whisper anything to JR or D&A, to see how the react to the claim. If whispers were made to JR & D&A, then the whole thing was just a big waste of time.

[karnos]

VOTE: JaeReed

No clear results, just a lot of muddying of the issue, going to vote with my gut for now.

[karnos]

We're at 8 now so assuming no night kills we have... 3 more mislynches before we need to find scum.

We're at 6/2, right? Three more mislynches, we're 3/2. Then hit scum, 3/1. Scum vengekills 2, 1/1. Town loses.

And what do you mean "assuming no night kills"? We know scum doesn't have NK. Are you suggesting there might be a Vig?

Interesting thing: 1v1 doesn't mean town loses, it just means the first person to post and vote at the start of day wins, whether town or wolf. Kind of funny really.

But yeah, we can't just keep lynching townies for fun. Need to lynch scum.

VOTE: BTD

Since the seer claim has been fully debunked, I think this is the correct move. I still think Jae is acting incredibly scummy, but can't lynch two people at the same time, and fake seer claim is a step worse.

[karnos]

YOU ACTIVATED HIS TRAP CARD.

[karnos]

I don't know why this is so complicated. We were going to lynch BTD yesterday, only gave him a stay of execution to see if he really was the seer. It's now clear the seer claim was just a charade.

I had my hunch about a Jae & D&A scum team, but there can only be two scum and BTD wins the "most scummy player in this game" award any way you look at it.

RS, I don't get your gambit. I am not saying murdercat is obv town, I really don't have that strong of a read on him, but the idea that your "gambit", if you can even call it that actually proves he is scum- it does not.

[karnos]

Can someone explain to me why BTD is scum? It takes 5 votes to lynch so some explanation to get people into the wagon will be helpful..

Look it's really simple.

On day 1, he was at L-1 and people were SCREAMING to hammer him. D&A, in particular, and apparently Jae shared the same thought because they decided the action was good enough for permanent town confirmation.

The only reason we didn't lynch him immediately is because... maybe by some miracle, he is a seer, worth going one day to see.

Now it's day 2, and BTD is confirmed *not* a seer. All the same reasons to lynch him exist as we had on day 1, plus the extra reason of him faking a seer claim and holding it for so long.

I do find D&A and Jae's play irritating, even if one or both are town. It seems like they are using some sort of anti-town logic, where BTD was scum before he faked the seer claim, but now that it's confirmed to be a fake claim they fully believe he is town. Okay, what?

I had my hunch about a Jae & D&A scum team,

One of them is possible. Two of them? If it's two of them, they will not resist voting me.
~Realeo

Yeah, at this point I can't imagine them not voting BTD if they were a scum team. Free miss-lynch, no scummy tells required.

[karnos]

The only reason we want to lynch him D1 was becuase he didn't talk enough. Now? He talked.

Really? His lies about being a seer convinced you he is town? Or was it the lie about getting a guilty (or innocent, or no result) on murdercat that convinced you he is town?

The gambit itself is NAI, but the fact that he continued to claim seer until the every end just drips of scum. The only reason he wasn't lynched yesterday was because he claimed seer, that claim has been shot down.

If you let BTD go now, the next time we vote someone to l-1 they are just going to claim some silly power role to avoid getting lynched, and then rescind the claim later as an "obv towny".

[karnos]

It wasn't a survival move if he believed he was being hammered.

If he didn't believe the hammer, there is one more thing BTD lied about. How many lies does it take before you stop trusting someone?

[karnos]

It wasn't a survival move if he believed he was being hammered.

If he didn't believe the hammer, there is one more thing BTD lied about. How many lies does it take before you stop trusting someone?

I've played with Charloux before quite a few times since my first game. For this reason I don't subscribe to Lynch All Liars. It's lazy as far as scumhunting goes.

The argument isn't that he lied so we should lynch him.

The point is that the only thing he has done since he was scum-read is post a series of lies.

[karnos]

Really? You whispered me suggesting a gambit where I claim guilty and whisper everyone but D&A and JaeReed. I executed the gambit. Now you are trying to accuse me of lying? You just look so much scummier because of this. I am willing to push this wagon.

Do you understand the purpose of the gambit? It doesn't work if A: you tell *everyone* you are doing a gambit and B: the basis of the gambit is something you don't even know.

That is to say, if you really were a seer and knew murdercat's alignment, you could get some interesting reaction tests based on that knowledge. The problem is, now that you have revealed you were never a seer, you can't get ANY useful information from that sort of gambit because you don't even know if your claim is true or not.

After I found I was not lynched, I didn't see any reason to back down.

So you, as a VT towny, claimed seer after you thought you were hammered, before you later "found out" that you were not actually lynched? Don't you realize how anti-town it is to claim a role like that? I don't believe you are actually that bad.

[karnos]

@Karnos: Do you never scumread Murdercat whatsoever?
Also, why the change of heart Jae? I thought D&A was confirmed town for you?

He was my second choice for scum on day 1 initially, but the lynch ended up going to BNL.

But now I don't see a reason to lynch anyone but BTD, not much tops his play.

I have considered D&A as a major scum read as well, and I don't think D&A and BTD are likely to be scum partners. I wouldn't mind lynching D&A- worst case they flip town and it's very telling on BTD's alignment.

[karnos]

So today's menu is {ReallySick,Karnos}. Let us focus here unless any of you can cook a new meal.

~Realeo

I never understood the logic of these sorts of arguments.

I'm not a wolf, and I don't think you are a wolf, so I think it's a terrible idea to limit votes between us.

Why don't you tell the thread why you think BTD isn't a wolf?

[karnos]

I personally considered the possibility of Karnos/D&A. I mean, why you jumped fos to JaeReed and

only after I laid my gambit

you fos back BTD. A leaked bucket?

Why are you asking this question, I've made it 100% clear:

I always thought BTD was probably scum, but since the seer claim was a big deal I felt we should wait a day and see what results he got. Well, we waited a day, he gave some fake results, and then he claimed the entire seer claim was a fake as well. If I thought he was scum before that, why on earth do you think I would read him as town after fake claiming?

[karnos]

I'm not even sure what your gambit was exactly. I mean, you said you wanted to vote me and murdercat, and murdercat voted you, so he "lost" the gambit. That isn't really a gambit, that is just normal interactions.

Though, now I am starting to wonder if there is some RS BTD connection. You seem oddly aggressive towards me now that I really want to lynch BTD, isn't that a chainsaw?

[karnos]

BTD is scum!
No really, BTD is scum
RS and BTD is scum!

He's been screAming the same exact thing in his Iso OVER and OVER.

Other than my last post, when have I ever even implied you might be scum? The differences between your observations and reality are huge.

Though, now I am starting to wonder if there is some RS BTD connection. You seem oddly aggressive towards me now that I really want to lynch BTD, isn't that a chainsaw?

MY TOWNREAD IS BEING VOTED. I AM BEING ODDLY AGGRESSIVE. DO YOU EXPECT ME TO RELAX WHEN THERE ARE VOTES IN MY TOWN READ? I MEAN, YOU

ALSO

WENT INTO THE TROUBLE OF CONVINCING ME THAT MURDERCAT IS TOWN IN WHISPER, SO NOW I CAN'T DO THE SAME?

Don't say that's "But BTD is not being lynched". You also argue Murdercat for me when only me is voting him, IIRIC.

Yes, you deserve caps.
~Realeo

I can't even understand what you are going on about re: murdercat, can you clarify? It sounds like you sound I tried to convince you murdercat is town, uh... were you perhaps referring to the message I sent you to remind you that BTD's guilty on murdercat was just a gambit?

And yes, I expect you to relax. You were not freaking out when BTD was being voted on day 1, what changed for you? How about EXPLAINING the town read, you know, with some actual references. As a town read, you don't really know if he is scum or not. If he flips town, you get some useful information for tomorrow. It's not the end of the world to lynch a town player, it's pretty much a given every game.

OTOH, if BTD is your scum partner, it quiet literally is the end of the world if we lynch him, because his flip will confirm your guilt and you will get lynch tomorrow and town wins.

[karnos]

Oops: " It sounds like you sound I tried to convince you murdercat is town"

SHOULD BE: It sounds like you are saying I tried to convince you murdercat is town

[karnos]

Re-reading day 1 with knowledge, it's crazy how murdercat was defending BTD so obviously. But maybe because you never see scum do that, you got away with it in the end.

I had my suspicious day 1, but they mostly faded after all the fake gambit noise. Well played.