Micro 634 - Wolf Hunt [Game Over!]

[mhsmith0]

This will doubtless come as a shock, but I'm opposed to my lynch.

Did a quick read through, agree that he peeked bbt n1 by all appearances (small chance he actually peeked accountant and was angry at the nk, but i feel like he'd be a lot more careful to avoid faking a peek there if that was the case)

I'll do a more careful read tonight. In the meantime...

1) What do you think of the accountant night kill? I see it was discussed d2 but not for long.

2) What are your thoughts on the late developing wagon d1 on Carey and the final d2 wagon on joushi? In your joushi vote you discussed being wind blown as a scum tell but your l-1 vote itself was in the direction the wind was blowing.

[mhsmith0]

@Lycan:

Spoiler:

Going for Accountant now looks good. It was a vote on an inactive but for a reason. The Accountant wagon went to a standstill and we had 3 inactives. If Accountant is scum, scum are bound to not support his lynch. If Accountant is town they should be piling on him. I elimmed Pista and Chaos because they weren't as interesting regardless of Accountant's alignment.

VOTE: Lowell

Votecount 1.13

Lowell (4)

- LycanFire, CareyHammer, Umlaut, Accountant

[L-1]

Tiershift (2)

- pistachi0n, BlueBloodedToffee

[L-3]

CareyHammer (2)

- ChaosOmega, Tiershift

[L-3]

Umlaut (1)

- Lowell

[L-4]

Not Voting (0)

-

Nobody!

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 is Tuesday, August 23rd at 9PM EST.

Mod Notes

None!

________________________________________


There's scum between Carey, Accountant and Lowell. That's pretty much the justification for my Lowell vote that and, his interaction with BBT/#125 ("yes! accountant is a great lynch/s" incredibly paraphrased) meant I wanted to see how Accountant would react to this / how Lowell would continue to approach the Accountant wagon. Nothing happened because Pista apparently made the grievous mistake of voting the person that townread him and had Tiershift, Accountant, Chaos, and BBT form a wagon on him instead.

Carey/Accountant interactions are dreadful, from Accountant buddying him early to sheeping his vote from page 5 to now. It might be S+T interactions, simply because Carey doesn't contribute and it isn't fishy if Accountant were to try to buddy up with someone seemingly inconspicuous. Accountant did this with Tiershift as well, but I don't believe they are a team, if anything the pista wagon was a mechanism to spoil VCA. Basically I think Accountant looks good with either of them,

because Chaos is town

-

#38 he wants to know my vote is now on a useless slot by my own admission. then he slams mick for not posting outside rvs vote. he wants the game to move along.
#51+108 pushing his read
#144 presses two of my scumreads. not to say the interactions were subtle but i'm happy with anyone that shares dislike
#203
#205+207 presses accountant again

VOTE: Accountant
Happy with Accountant/Carey lynches. I'm interested in Lowell's replacement tomorrow.

Can you talk more about why you were town reading chaos so strongly at that point? It seems like it's a meaningful driver of the rest of your D1 reads, at least wrt your push on accountant/carey from then to the end of the day, but the only thing I really saw supporting that read was 128, which didn't seem like much. What had you seen to drive such a seemingly strong/important read at that point?

[mhsmith0]

Lynch lycan

I don't like how he says I'm scum and chaos is town

i still hope you get lynched (but am willing to switch last minute to avoid a no lynch)

Okay, if not Tier then who's the next best? He's the only one you've really talked about.

Probably Chaos

This guy knows whats up

btw these were accountant's last stated positions. between accountant's push on lycan and lycan's stated read of accountant/carey as v/w, there's pretty decent N1 kill motive there (theoretically there is from chaos too, but that seems less likely unless you think that a hard bus was going on D1). It's possibly WIFOM, but at the same time it's a strange kill just for WIFOM since he'd been suspected and was off wagon.

[mhsmith0]

@lycan:

...
#38 he wants to know my vote is now on a useless slot by my own admission. then he slams mick for not posting outside rvs vote. he wants the game to move along.
#51+108 pushing his read
#144 presses two of my scumreads. not to say the interactions were subtle but i'm happy with anyone that shares dislike
#203
#205+207 presses accountant again

I wanted to get people to react to Accountant's wagon. Chaos was sheeping me on Conmanmick and I wanted to see if he would keep doing that. Going for pistachi0n would have distracted Tiershift from Accountant. I liked my vote landing on Lowell the most because he said he was getting newb vibes from Accountant... Accountant was the IC in my first game on this site, so I knew he wasn't a newb. When BBT showed up and voted Accountant Lowell appeared happy by it. In all it seemed like distancing.

Beyond the reasons I stated in that post you don't see why I would townread Chaos so hard?

1) The list of stuff is enough substance for a town lean perhaps, but it seemed like you used that to develop a strong town read that then informed your other reads. That's kind of under-supported for what seems to be as strong of a read as you've indicated. Especially given accountant's reasonable response

asking questions isn't content, imo, unless you're going to show town the thought process of you analyzing the question answers

gonna repeat this shit

i'd much rather you show me what you did with the answers from your last round of questions

and the resulting back and forth. Chaos comes out of it not terribly, but I don't see the strong town read from it; accountant's point that chaos wasn't really doing anything was reasonable at that stage of the game. You TR chaos for asking questions, without seeming to be worried about whether or not he's actually doing anything useful with the questions.

Also, what do you mean by "not to say the interactions were subtle"?

2) Speaking of 156 (cited in Chaos's 203), did you ever get around to explaining what pissed you off about the pist wagon? I don't see an answer from you; please point me to it if I missed it. Saying that you liked the questions he asked in 203, without actually answering the question addressed to you, is strange.

3) What made you change your vote to Carey instead of pushing for an Accountant lynch in 324? Just the fact that it was inside your two preferences and the larger wagon, or something more than that?

4)

I'm inclined to believe that scum were on the wagon. Since I was going to vote him too I had another look at him and I don't see a post that hints PR. Either scum thought they read something, they feel personally threatened by Accountant, or they didn't want to draw attention to the wagon.

Do you still believe this? If so, who would be the wolf on the wagon? Tier is dead, and chaos/umlaut are the other two carey voters. Which of them do you think could have been bussing?

5) Do you have a scum game completed I can look at? I've look at your data and it seems like your completed games are all town flips.

[mhsmith0]

What drove your prior on why the last wolf was off Carey? With Carey at L-2 and leading wagon (from your vote), I'd say that the temptation to be on the wagon of a wolf likely going down anyway would have been substantial for a buddy who wasn't already on. Along the same lines, what do you think of

VOTE: CareyHammer

BBT: why TierShift.

and the lack of follow-through after that? Absence at EOD is possibly explainable (especially given that others were out as well) but it seems weird to cast a vote to lock in a lynch while expressing curiosity about BBT's position on Tier, and then just walk away without further comment. Like, not even 20 minutes later, BBT is shouting about the Carey wagon being ugly; it's kind of weird not to engage with that comment given the stated curiosity about BBT's TierShift vote.

PS does anyone here have prior experience with lycan? I've skimmed some of its previous games (I think they're all town on this site), and have seen what look to be substantial differences compared to its normal town meta, but am curious if anyone has read any of them (I don't think any of you were on any of the player lists unless I missed something or there was an alt, but idk if anyone here spectated any of them or happened to go back and reread)

[mhsmith0]

probably. want to hear back from Lycan first.

[mhsmith0]

how sure are you that it isn't umlaut? Becuase I'm pretty sure it's not umlaut, but it seems likely that chaos is going to snap vote me in LYLO if it comes to that, which means that if it's umlaut he wins (I'm presuming you're dead in this hypothetical)

[mhsmith0]

By the way, I know how much you enjoy meta, but this is what I've seen from Lycan so far:

Open 651 - Town
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
makes posts like

Spoiler:

Please stop getting so defensive, Vedith! Two votes and you're death flailing already!

He's got a weapon!

Daykill: Vedith

game solved i'm going to sleep

Bastion if you like confidence you should vote light_ganski with me.

told you that the game was solved

can we take a moment to appreciate the fact we have two people that can't bother to put their votes down with people at L-4.

I am going to have to be unpopular and say he's town and I will oppose any move to lynch him today.

you can follow him to hell after flip.

but if i'm such a good lynch and a scumfucker why are you ignoring your gut read and sheeping njac's wagon?

is it because you have no incentive to solve the game?

do you hate my pr claim that much ironstove? i'm glad to hear it!! if only someone could do something about that and autowin game huh

plus try-hard posts like
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8228292
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p8242675
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p8277500
etc

Newbie 1718 - Town
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

makes posts like
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8086941
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8110308
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8110322
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8117906
etc.


plus try-hard posts like
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8090282
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p8097503
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p8097520
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8129604
etc.

Newbie 1717 - Town
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
more of the same


Overall town meta: emotional, high energy, asks pointed questions, occasionally shows high amounts of effort in sorting people.

This game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8307240 until I subbed in, he had asked not a single question so far. not one, all game, until his response to me in 428, and even that is a self-focused question. Low emotion (states that he's pissed off, but doesn't show it in his posts), is low energy with a general lack of game-solving. His ISO here is boring when his town game is pretty consistently anything but.

[mhsmith0]

k
VOTE: lycan

FWIW, I'd be pretty surprised if it was umlaut as well, casting that key vote in that high leverage spot seems unlikely as last wolf, plus he overall seems villagery (game-solvey, free tone, etc). Chaos would surprise me a lot too, but it's not impossible that they did distancing hoping to avoid a D1 lynch and it just went wrong or something.

PS If the last wolf is BBT and Tier fucked up his peek discussion I'm going to be super salty post game. I don't think it is BBT though, he seems reasonably villagery, more of a push to what he's doing than our last game together.

PPS I like using meta best when dealing with people who aren't actually good at manipulating their metas. People who are really good as wolves are harder to read that way. But shape, tone, energy, where people are pushing, etc. tend to be different as town than wolf.

[mhsmith0]

actually [unv][/unv]
still want to hear from lycan first. But definitely FOS that way.

[mhsmith0]

UNVOTE: stupid vote tags

[mhsmith0]

fine. it's probably lycan anyway.
VOTE: lycan

[mhsmith0]

Sorry was busy. I'll pop back in tonight w a more substantive chaos read, but if nothing else him being early on Carey d1 is a pretty good look. Super risky play in this format to bus at that stage. I'll re read to see if it seems fake but I doubt it. It's probably just lycan.

[mhsmith0]

So what should we do while we wait for Snarky?

Die of old age?

Lycan, do you have a stronger scumread on Umlaut or mhsmith?

If he's not just trolling then the answer is obvious based on what he was just saying.

[mhsmith0]

Hard claim jester

Nice post lynch trolling lycan I 100% approve

[mhsmith0]

Ps smith GOAT subs in finds last wolf right quick

[mhsmith0]

Btw lycan, I'd say that you are TOWN when you're town. One thing to try as wolf is push a bit harder and take the time to ask seemingly interesting questions. Asking zero questions is a slip worth fixing.

[mhsmith0]

Nice, good job town.

Not too bad at all.

*high fives*
Nice to village w you this time bbt.

Ps wrt meta, I think it's useful in certain circumstances but people use it badly pretty often. Same thing with vca to be honest. IMO the biggest thing is when there's a town meta that a player is NOT meeting, ala lycan here. Some people simply are bad or inexperienced at matching their town meta. People who are good and experienced at it are less useful meta-img against.

[mhsmith0]

They can try to manipulate it. Some people really struggle to pull it off though,mans I think few are able to do it easily. It's hard and many aren't even fully aware of what their town game even looks like, especially if/when they're just doing what feels natural. Tone, aggression, apparent curiosity. quality of questions, depth of thinking, willingness to get into fights and get hands dirty (even when getting into a fight makes you look bad to most people and it's easier to avoid them), are the types of things that people often don't successfully replicate as wolves or even especially want to try.

[mhsmith0]

Of course, some of that also falls into general villager behavior too, and many peoples town and wolf meta fall reasonably in line with general town or wolf meta. Very very few people are as aggressive as wolf as they are as town, for instance.

[mhsmith0]

Another example: my own town meta is generally between what you saw in GoT (fairly lazy but still analyzing, asking decent ?s, etc) and what I did in open 642 (ridiculously obv!town, getting into fights, desperately trying to get content from people and eventually just getting frustrated and yelling at the town for being lazy and bad, while still being checked in enough to read people off of their reactions to that). Whereas my wolf game tends to be pretty consistently on the lazy side, in large part because villagers are bad at picking that up (see newbie 1714 for a fantastatic example of this, subbed in d2, shot cop n2 and otherwise largely coasted against a village that was busy eating itself).

[mhsmith0]

@lycan: wrt your "pissed off" bit, I'll defer to a dead chat note from someone much better than me...

I don't have time to adequately respond to that post but one thing I can say quickly is that when I'm talking about emotions, I'm specifically excluding anger. It's the easiest emotion to fake and it's one that is often not alignment-indicative even when it is genuine, unless it can be traced to an origin in something distinctly villagery.

Emotions like pride, paranoia, surprise, suspicion, etc, are more difficult to fake. Wolves often fail to even identify spots in which emotion should be present in their posting, and their efforts at actually displaying more complex emotions are often quite clumsy, for example by stating their supposed feelings rather than displaying them.

But in the case of Cron, a lot of what was clearing for him was just the sheer depth and breadth of his reads and interactions. It's just hard to fake that much content so quickly and make it sound good. And few wolves are ever going to stalk other players' online statuses in order to catch lurkers.

Your "pissed off" bit seemed both inconsistent with your actual tone (stating it instead of showing it) and a bizarre emotion to have in reaction to the situation. And faking emotions is a pretty decent wolf tell.

[mhsmith0]

Nice job towntelling and casing Lycan, Smith. I most likely would have voted him tomorrow anyway after getting your slot lynched today, but who knows what might have happened between now and then to convince either me or (probably) Chaos to vote differently?

Thanks! It's nice to start building up a villa winning streak (2 and counting).

[mhsmith0]

Speaking of misleading w/l records, we could always talk about my own...

I actually had a player I respect a lot tell me I was the unluckiest player by far he'd ever seen... and that was before another set of unlucky town losses

[mhsmith0]

That said I thought you were fine here. Pretty clearly town, though your waffling around the lycan vote looked odd enough that if it was wrong I'd be worried about you a lot more.

[mhsmith0]

Agreed on that hammer, it's game throwing as either alignment if not the major town pr. I pmd the mod just after skimming the last page w "I bet tiers the cop w a bbt peek". Was super duper obvious.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt your town meta, there's a pretty clear fundamental aggressiveness and inquisitiveness to your play that seems to be fairly consistent. My guess is it's something you aren't even really thinking about, it just comes out naturally to you as part of your solving process. Just for kicks, you can probably iso this game vs any of your town games and see a major difference in tone and content and WIM (want it more).

As time goes on, you'll get better at emulating that process, though I'll warn you that you will hit setbacks; my first wolf game was mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/1337-Fruit-Salad-Mafia, and I played aggressively, got my as kicked (including a pretty bad d2 meltdown) and have almost never played with that level of confidence since, though I do hope to eventually get there. Bbt says it's easy to manipulate meta, but I'd say it's actually hard to do so. Emulating your town process takes a LOT of confidence, and that confidence is hard to come by sometimes, which is why a lot of people just coast, lurk or active lurk as wolves.

It's a process that takes time and effort, but I think you'll be able to learn from this game and improve (possibly including an improvement in your town game from seeing how you woofed and where it went wrong). I wish you luck.

[mhsmith0]

In fairness I wasn't actually reading open 651 all that closely. Skimmed a bit from time to time was all. I got busy, and as happens sometimes, a game I was only observing got dumped all the way to last on my priority list. I paid more attention to that game when I was skimming your iOS while case building than I really did while it was ongoing lol. IIRC post game I'd told rask I didn't know if he was a wolf since I wasn't reading, figured you'd have seen that and so your "smith was reading closely bit" was an intentional discrediting lie.

[mhsmith0]

Pushed the the last wolf hard enough to make him feel threatened enough to shoot you, can't feel too badly about that.