Micro 655: Forest Fire - Endgame

[ReubenWasFine]

It's about time that I've claimed.

I can't be stumped. If you vote to lynch me, I'll become President of the United States.

VOTE: Flubbernugget most likely to be a cuck.

[ReubenWasFine]

so i've been able to make a few conclusions from this game, but this one is the most obvious.

fire assassin #40 first post of real note... fire is asking to leave RVS before everyone has posted.
vifam #46 doesn't want to vote because they don't know who the scum are. mention that they don't want to be pressured as a result. seems like they care too much about what people think of them. very passive.
fire assassin #48 thinks vifam/46 is townie.
tiershift #56 cites fire/48 as a reason to wagon him. i think vifam/46 is still worse because it's a lot like what careyhammer was doing in micro 634. fire's analogue in that game, accountant townread vifam's (scum) analogue in that game for a similar post.
fire assassin #61 rather than "kick us out of RVS" and continue his wagon he gets defensive to tiershift.... i don't know what's wrong with this. something seems really wrong here. SvS interaction?
fire assassin #62 tries to get pressure back on BBmolla. in hindsight 61 isn't as bad now, but something seemed really off with that post.
maria 64-66 "is molla a srs vote?" (jester/65 "no it's not) "it better not be with 3 pages... i'll power lynch any of you" she's trying REALLY hard to kill the BB wagon.
fire #67 seems to try really hard to justify switching from his first vote of the game onto BBmolla. really hate that. really hate his point #2, as well.
fire #75 thinks maria isn't being genuine with how concerned she is about the wagons. i don't think they are viable teammates
maria #77 gets super defensive to fire's #75
jester #87 asking the important questions again. this time asking fire to articulate himself more.
fire #89 "nothing" "so far". at least he's persistent.
fire #91 says him trying to get us out of RVS is a nontell. i disagree. all behavior makes sense in context. the context is the tell.
fire #104 asks if flubber is being serious. seemed serious to me.
fire #105 asks vifam if he thinks fire is bussing BB.
fire #108 !!!!! says that vifam softed fire fighter (??? post 46/"i don't know who is scum still i don't want to be pressured"/paraphrase ??) fire is reading WAY too far into this comment and it conflicts greatly with my original read of #46 to the point that it concerns me that he is looking for PR. his early townread of vifam proves he was trying to find him as PR from the beginning of the game (fire/48). I HATE THIS.
fire #110 trying to sheep the PR??
fire #112 he just doesn't stop...

intent: fire assassin

. he's L-2.

reads

scum { fire assassin }
scum lean { tiershift, vifam, flubbernugget }
townlean { smoothblue, BBmolla }
town { maria, jester }

really hate how vifam tried cockblocking bbmolla's read earlier, then came back 6 minutes later to joke about it. (#84-86)

[ReubenWasFine]

1) the context is that fire tried to get us out of RVS before everyone had posted.
2) he wasn't holding back when it came to picking vifam's brain. if he was scumhunting he was relying too hard on vifam.
3) i'm upset at vifam because it was a shit play. if he thinks you're town, the correct thing to do is to let bbmolla prod you until he's satisfied. if he's going to derail it, he needs a good reason. he came back 6 minutes to make a joke about it. as if he was self conscious that it wasn't a good post and wanted to laugh it off. timing matters. plus all my reads aren't in a vacuum. otherwise i wouldn't have more than two scum reads.
4) tier's a good partner for fire. his "good townie" push on fire is pretty dubious. if scum!fire was trying to look like a good townie, i suppose starting an early wagon on BB would be a good idea, because BB doesn't seem likely to dig himself a grave and make scum!fire look bad. beyond that, looking like a good townie is sticking their neck out. i have different problems with fire's attempted wagon and that isn't it. 56/61 looked like an unnatural exchange.
5) no experience with BB
6) more to maria than that

[ReubenWasFine]

and yet here i am with intent on fire assassin and a townread on jester and when i look at your posts 83-86 it looks scummy.

[ReubenWasFine]

lack of counterwagon here makes me think if fire is town, scum are on his wagon, and if fire is scum, his partner is still on his wagon by virtue of being unable to hop off.

his partner is probably tiershift or vifam. my reasoning for tiershift is fire going out of his way to interact with tier (#61). seemed like it could have been an SvS interaction to get him to back off. fire's next post is in-line with what he should be doing. if you were to merge posts 61 and 62, it looks like a pretty clear suggestion to put attention on someone that isn't him. separate they appear like fire snapped at tier.

as for vifam, having your partner 'expose' you as PR can't really hurt. if fire flips scum, we may have simply went along with "wow i guess vifam is a PR'. due to the nature of the set up our PRs won't immediately die if at all (because we have two). no loss here, only gain. #101 he deflects away from maria and puts focus onto fire assassin. that's not very shitty... but going for maria is pretty problematic. seemed like a very smart post as town or scum here. #102 floats the idea of BB being scum "too" (implying a bus). seemed random/late. fire was not pressuring BBmolla enough at this point beyond saying bbmolla hasn't done anything "so far". #105 fire asks vifam if he thinks he's bussing BB (obvious answer, seemed like a setup interaction to make it more clear to everyone else how vifam felt about fire's flip). the shitty interactions withstanding, vifam really hates my point about him interfering with BB (#84-87). if you can't comprehend why i thought it was scummy after i've sounded it out (#156) then there's a disconnect with reality in that post (#177/#189).

outlier team: flubber and tiershift. case for flubber: strange posting. his fourth post, first of note he's asking tiershift about his read on fire. #100 asks tiershift if he's being genuine. around this time, people were asking maria and fire similar questions. maybe it was a free pass to prod at his partner. 97, 122, 139, 220 seemed kind of lazy. meanwhile #197 would be a bus post if he were partners with fire: it was something obvious to say, but a pretty killer point of you really wanted fire lynched. that's why i'm placing flubber as outside a fire team. next bit of criteria, they are both on the fire wagon.

my only problem with this theory is that the interactions were not mutual as tiershift stopped posting. typically asymmetric interactions are TvS in the sense that they're parasitical (if that makes sense). the scum try to cling onto a townie and appear town to that one person, opposed to doing town things. even if they're called on it, their target will consider the scenario where they're town and how the behavior makes sense. after preparing pre-flip interactions, it's an easy way to drag them down with you, as they aren't needed any more. for this reason i think fire as scum is the most likely scenario, as tier could have posted "yeah he's super scummy dude".

if we were going to see a counterwagon here you'd think fire would press maria or really anyone would.

thoughts?

[ReubenWasFine]

first part you are understanding properly we are just disagreeing

second part i'm not too sure of myself. i think at the very least fire should have pressured you when he had the chance. in fire as scum scenario i'm wondering just how possible it was to start a counterwagon. after fire marked you as your scumread, that shot was pretty much gone, and if i ignore you, someone who has been actively trying to look scummy, that leaves people on his wagon, so the only way i can justify the lack of a counterwagon is that the one on it is too scared to get off and the one being wagoned (fire) is too scared to commit to one person on the wagon. another possibility is that tier is simply not here to start one.

[ReubenWasFine]

fire was trying to give reads. rather than continue his townread of you he revised it to

PR-read

. there was no motive in doing that other than making you look good.

[ReubenWasFine]

as in my earlier point about that exchange it seemed like fire slipped PR read of you because he referenced it from a post he already townread you from.

[ReubenWasFine]

as in my earlier point about that exchange it seemed like fire slipped PR read of you because he referenced it from a post he already townread you from.

How does this answer my question

slip1
[slip]

Synonyms
Examples
Word Origin

See more synonyms on Thesaurus.com
verb (used without object), slipped or (Archaic) slipt; slipped; slipping.
11.
to make a mistake or error:
As far as I know, you haven't slipped once.

[ReubenWasFine]

i'm saying fire slipped you were PR even though it was going to look awful for him. i can't understand why unless it was deliberate.

[ReubenWasFine]

if you have concerns about my posts break them down and say how the interactions are shit rather than say bringing them up are.

pre-flip associations are a valid way of analyzing a game. why? because if i wasn't trying to push the game along, i would have voted fire in post #145. at the time that was an awful idea and of course i'm going to prod people like vifam esp. after the "omg i PR read you!!!" post.

[ReubenWasFine]

Some kind of delirious post in 10hr

[ReubenWasFine]

ok so i just woke up after 17 hours of being bedridden

i'm not voting maria today

flubber might be fair game, but i like fire more. flubber being the immediate counterwagon to fire is more evidence that they are unlikely to be on the same team. tiershift seems to be a counterwagon to flubber rather than to fire. both tiershift and fire assassin have voted each other. flubber has voted for fire, while neither fire or tier have voted for him.

v1
jester - bb, flubber
bb - fire
flubber - reuben
maria - jester
fire - tiershift, vifam
tier, maria
NO - smooth

v2
jester - bb
bb - fire
flubber - reuben
maria - jester
fire - tier, vifam, flubber
tier - maria
NO - smooth

v3

jester - bb
bb - fire
flubber - reuben, jester
fire - tier, vifam, flubber
NO - smooth, maria

v4

jester - bb
tier - fire
flubber - reuben, jester
fire - tier, vifam, flubber
NO - smooth, maria

v5
(above)

v6
jester - bb
tier - fire
flubber - reuben
fire - tiershift, vifam, flubber
NO - smooth, maria, jester

v7
tier - fire
jester - bb, maria
flubber - reuben, tiershift, jester
fire - flubber
reuben - vifam
NO - smooth

v8

tier - fire, bb, jester
flubber - reuben, tier, maria
fire - flubber
reuben - vifam
NO - smooth

LIVE

tier - fire, bb, jester
flubber - reuben
fire - flubber
reuben - vifam
maria - tier
NO - smooth, maria

between counts 6-8 we saw the largest vote shifts. we should probably focus on what was happening at this time.

my vote has been locked into RVS because i thought putting fire to L-1 so early could have derailed the wagon. either he goes to l-1 and says something dumb and gets lynched in the first few pages, or he claims firefighter (potentially something dumb to say) and gets lynched or a good wagon goes to waste. re-placing my vote from RVS onto someone else i wasn't commited to would make no sense, and keeping it vs. unvoting seemed like the better move because it could piss people off like vifam who has questioned it twice now.

more posts later i have to go to work

[ReubenWasFine]

thoughts

discussion of counterwagons came up again between counts 6 and 7. previously maria cited the lack of one as a towntell but in #231 i claimed it was either scum or had the scumteam on the wagon.

from 6 on-wards we had wagons go from fire to flubber to tier to tier alone.

#255-256

tiershift cuts into maria but then votes... flubber? they eventually come back to maria, but the vote onto flubber seems like more of a gut read than something he seemed committed to.
#260 vifam points out a counterwagon appeared out of thin air
#261 vifam seemingly annoyed that no one has pressed fire
#262 jester gives commentary on the 'no one seems to think he's town' bit of the above post.
#265 tiershift does the same, speaks for bbmolla for some reason
#291 jester didn't read over this post properly the first time around mainly because i've been ignoring jester's requests. he needs to explain why he agreed with vifam/289 but didn't think it was scummy.
#293 vifam hating the dominant counterwagon
#294 tiershift really doesn't want fire, wants an alternative vote, prods vifam on flubber.
#299 jester made this vote on flubber once before. it's never stated why.
#302 tiershift makes a v. flubber
#305 maria sheeps the counterwagon

#307

bbmolla begins the counterwagon to flubber onto tier
(the first vote was fire/167 we've gone over why it was a bad post. i re-read the commentary around the post and it was boring)
#312 fire doesn't support the (flubberl-1) wagon at all
#313 tiershift asks to wagon someone on the same wagon they're on

subtleties:

tiershift has been interacting quite a bit with bbmolla. like i said before asymmetrical interactions are scummy.

something i noticed is that fire poked at maria and then townread her because ego or whatever but never tried the same with tiershift despite voting them in #167 and calling a tiershift/maria scumteam in #182


i think i want to lynch fire today. i might be persuaded onto tiershift. VOTE: fire_assassin

Ruben im liking vifams case on you more now

what about his case do you like?

[ReubenWasFine]

i accidentally a word above. spot it if you want to feel superior.

[ReubenWasFine]

i look for consistent behavior. when there's a breakdown of consistency there has to be a reason. if anything you should have been picking at your primary scumread opposed to your secondary one. i was implying that you're scum and you still could be, but i'm going to UNVOTE: as i have all day for this.

[ReubenWasFine]

has your reason for pushing tier changed at all?

[ReubenWasFine]

The wiki does say 1 ff in 9p

I wasnt buying the whole projecting pr to look tree thing anyway.

VOTE: fire assassin

[ReubenWasFine]

vifam is town because his behavior because fire forced an interaction on him, and his behavior after that was town. i had a considerable amount of suspicion on him yesterday especially after his suspicion of me read like OMGUS. i was feeling validated with how he was handling my accusation re: his interaction with BBmolla. typically when scum realize they were put on someone's radar, they immediately move to discredit that person. he went from calling my posts scummy and useless (hey don't listen to that person!) i never felt the need to articulate this yesterday, because vifam let out a steady stream of suspicion, and i wanted to see at what point he would (presumably) shut out my suspicions of fire. he never really did this (kept saying how dumb it was to peel off fire) and rather than hang back and doubt me he actively tried to wagon me while refusing and calling people out on wagons that were trendy. this kind of paranoia is hard to take, which makes him town.

i need to go over my notes some more but i won't be back until the evening

[ReubenWasFine]

this kind of paranoia is hard to fake

ebwop

[ReubenWasFine]

dumpin' (yes you have to read all of it)

so i've been mulling over my notes after my re-read i did the day before. i think there's great reasons to say bb needs rope for it. if i didn't have anyone else on my radar, i'd probably go for it. but, i don't. so i'm sitting back here with a better alternative laughing at how bb was trying to convince fire that he was town. narrative building and controlling discussion is important for a scumgame but wasn't this a little too obvious?

anyways this is a continuation of my last read post that i couldn't bring myself to conclude earlier. i'll try to articulate enough of them even if they're obvious reads.

flubbernugget was the main counterwagon to fire. he had that killer #174 post. most of his posts in general display a lack of knowledge of peoples aligns. for instance i have notes for four of his posts in a row 218-221 where he goes on a savage tare. he quad posts around #330 again and decides to stop the questions and just state fire scum. he's town.

---

maria. our PR. i pegged you as a tree a long time ago so you should be happy. that's why i never wanted to talk about my read about you.i thought your posts were nauseatingly bad up until #127 where i marked you as playing a bad townie because i could only comment on so many posts before i absolutely had to say "maria has played too much to not understand what they're saying".

here's some ego

maria #141 again she's either being a bad townie or scum here. do we take the bait and spoil her plan, or lynch someone acting scummy because they're scum? the only way to win is not to play, which probably makes maria the winner here...

as for vifam [...] #101 he deflects away from maria and puts focus onto fire assassin. that's not very shitty... but going for maria is pretty problematic. seemed like a very smart post as town or scum here.

this sort of self destructive behavior seemed townie because at worst you get stumped or at best you attract scum. which she did. not having fire commit to her was worse than him suspecting her in the first place. way too easy of a slot to doubt at that point. rn there's no maria trap left and sharing this has some uses for this post.

[ReubenWasFine]

i really liked howard's entrance in #415. i read energy in it. this is important for the read as a whole. i took me two reads of this post to realize that he didn't make a typo, and that he was suggesting that i was coaching fire to claim PR in a post i made. scum wouldn't bother looking for SvS interactions for town. at the very least it would take an opportunistic mafiaso running a hail mary play. something that is wild, that has push. except he isn't doing anything about it. he's just leaving it there and continuing with the next person.

in 418 he asks many people questions. trying to be everyone's friend in this position doesn't seem to have scum motive here. if he's scum, we're going to relentlessly pursue the question mark slot and try to bag a perfect game. ego demands it, and tiershift went on him for it anyway. to get back to my original points in regards to this post, #418 reads like a post from someone that doesn't think they have scum and want to work with others to build consensus. there's nothing flashy in it. nothing at all like i'd expect scum-energy to be like.

he's probably town.

[ReubenWasFine]

bbmolla. i totes want to see him be scum. i'm sure i can scrape together enough interactions with fire to look bad, but i'd greatly prefer to share the interactions i thought were hilarious.

bbmolla #203 speaks for fire
bbmolla #205 trs vifam. jokes about a shitty townbloc.
jester #206 makes a good case in his defense but i don't see how this is more urgent than pushing a read
jester #207 i don't see this as contradictory
vifam #209 vifam asks why fire isn't in bb's townbloc if fire's wagon is so shitty
bbmolla #210 doesn't answer properly, gives some shitty irrelevant jokepost instead.
bbmolla #212 all this spec about what bbmolla would do as scum and i'm not seeing anything like i would expect from someone that is town like having real suspicions and calling for rope.
bbmolla #213 speaks like they know fire's align while suggesting a scenario where he himself is scum. i don't MIND this post... but why was fire omitted from the townbloc again?
fire #214 your read of everyone besides tiershift apparently
fire #215 who would respond to this in this way? seems like a good way to dodge saying "how do you know my alignment?"

bbmolla #232 no idea why bbmolla agreed with fire here. that 210 jokepost was supposed to be serious? shit.

this is like a case of going halfway if bbmolla is scum. he calls fire town but doesn't include him in his town bloc. if scum!bbmolla is going all out and nailing himself to the cross of interactions here, you have to go all in, because fire's chances of living to night at this point are pathetic. he goes further and talks about what he would do as scum, while he's defending obvscum fire while trying to convince fire that he himself is town. fire eventually gives up in 215 and goes "yeah i guess i'm town"(paraphrase).

sometimes, when people joke about town blocs they aren't being serious. i know from scumpov, it's your biggest fear to have people mutual townread each other, and when it's a group it becomes a problem night kill can't fix. so, i'm usually willing to let it slide as a reaction/narrative test so i can observe who tries to question or break it up. later on bbmolla reinforces the earlier post, and if it was a joke, continuing on 30 posts later is dumb. i have to believe that he was somewhat serious with it.

in #307 he began the counterwagon to flubber onto tier by being the second vote along with fire. that's pretty bad. i'd have to wonder what the lategame strategy is because we had started wagon analysis early (what could no counterwagon mean). fire+bbmolla would have to know that we would scrutinize any mislynch. plus, this wagon onto tier had been the only thing bbmolla had really pushed all game. it's like a giant spotlight, "look at me!" if the scumteam wanted a 1 for 1 late day mislynch, fire would have to earn it solo... and you'll see that after bbmolla disappeared again, fire tried this, becoming the biggest proponent of the lynch and got jester on board. after bbmolla's vote landed onto tiershift it became another case of going halfway when the only way to win is to bullshit to victory.

in #405 i felt tree vibes from bbmolla similar to maria. he knows how bad day 1 went. he knows he will probably be lynched. does that bother him? not much: he'll lose his vote and will get to analyze his own lynch. if you're going to get mislynched, being able to rain rope on scum for it is like a dream come true. it's possible he is intentionally dropping any sense of survival instinct. with one scum left, this is a hefty gambit. but, there was a reason i never wanted to discuss maria beforehand, and it was so scum would be less likely to try this tell that is only possible in this set up.

408-409 never bothered me. my notes mainly dismiss it because i never made a note on the initial post by smoothblue. that post never bothered me either. it was a pretty weak post and immediately earned him a vote from flubbernugget. not exactly a high-energy hail-mary play i had been talking about in regards to howard's own passivity. this just doesn't seem like scum.

[ReubenWasFine]

tiershift would appear likely too. tier votes his scumbuddy, drums up some reason about fire trying to look too town. fire gets pissy, places an OMGUS vote. puts tiershift on the scumteam with maria. grills maria, but ignores tiershift. is it because fire knew tiershift's alignment? yes- but that doesn't mean tiershift is scum. it makes fire either negligent (being inconsistent and slipping knowledge of tiershift's align) or purposely negligent to make us look at tier after his flip. considering the former is NAI with regards to tiershift, and the latter is all-too obvious with fire's vote park onto tier, i think interactions wise alone that tiershift is town.

the bus onto tiershift seemed to be genuine as well, and with a PR claim to save his neck, he was dooming the scumteam to a loss if the PR didn't show up in time to CC. there was nothing calculated about the last moments of day yesterday. fire was going to die, and he tried to get tiershift lynched for it.

if tier is scum, fire's play was suicidal.

it wasn't until i started analyzing the wagons that my suspicion of tiershift peaked. looking over my notes with fire+tier confirmed scumteam, i'm not actually seeing tier as scum. he seemed very happy to accuse anyone, speak for anyone, and seemed worried about no lynch at all. maybe it was wild behavior to pull attention anywhere besides fire, but he had already been pegged to fire before this, and the natural result was pulling a counterwagon onto himself... scum!tier with fire would have known that they were being too loose with their play here and all that they would do is damn the scumteam to being each others' alternative lynch.

post #419 i noted as being very uncharacteristic for tiershift. he pressed howard hard and immediately. tiershift has complained about posts like this before so i was surprised to see him make what i wrote as a "bully-post".

423 is a townish post. scum don't want to corner themselves. this falls back to the 'suicidal townie' behavior i was talking about as well. nobody is at any real risk of derailing the game with their own lynch here if they feel like they can solve the game from it.

undoubtably tiershift sat on the primary counterwagon to fire (flubber) but flubber wasn't doing any favors for himself: flubber's play was very similar to fire's: questioning a lot of people when we had a good wagon in fire. it wasn't until fire's flip that all of flubber's questioning looked very good to me. i'm reading tier as throughout the game being very wild with his reads even up to today. he hits several criteria to be scum, but i can't read his interactions as scummy, and if he were to be scum, the play scum ran yesterday was bad and suicidal. most importantly he seems consistently inconsistent with his reads to a fault. his behavior seems to be the same all game.

[ReubenWasFine]

jester started peaking as a scumread of mine the moment he voted for flubber the second time around. i didn't understand his first vote. i was keeping a close eye on that wagon (because i had been on it from my first post). by the time he made his second vote was getting very confident in fire scum. he then waffles votes between flubber#2 to tiershift and then makes what was the hammer (i forgot that he didn't join the last minute wagon when i tried hammering. i was counting backwards from people i thought had already unvoted.) jester is the only player to be on both counterwagons and more than anyone matches the criteria as second scum.

my notes on him are mainly positive because he was the primary driver in getting people to speak what they really meant the first time around. he achieved townread from me from posts with fire like this

jester 63 re:fire "respond to my questions" (how is molla wagon getting us out of rvs, why he thinks vifam is town). pretty good post, i sensed annoyance here.

he later shuts down fire's bbmolla wagon further and starts questioning just about

everyone

(#70, 72, 79, 87, 120, ). it was this uncertain behavior that struck me as town, but i have a boatload of negative notes to go along with it. even his first notable post involved fire, and it wasn't very great for him:

jester #51 pretty flacid reply to fire's rvs comment. not what i would grill him on.
jester #59 kind of all over the place with his votes. lack of concentrated pressure could be a scumtell, but talking with votes isn't bad if that's what he's doing.
jester #125 asks fire why his vote is still on BB. not a bad post, but maria is supposed to be his target and he isn't pushing that wagon. if he was being more explicit about getting votes on maria, i would like this post. but he isn't, so i don't.
maria #127 at this point i'm convinced maria is trying to play a "bad townie" and pull scum aggro onto herself. there's not as much risk for doing this in this set up if she's a tree, and scum will never shoot a bad townie.
jester #128 jester thinks otherwise, but i think maria is being too over the top at this point.
jester #129 gets back to his target, asks maria about fire's wagon.
jester #134 tries to get maria on a technicality in order to get a response.
jester #136 moves onto analyzing votes on fire, with the implication that they're shit.
jester #144 continues pushing bbmolla but makes a pretty dumb statement when doing it
jester #146 pretty convenient 180 on maria after i tr her. he steps WAY back and makes a blanket statement to try to explain it. reeks of scum worried that they missed a townslip.
jester #148 specs fire's partner
jester #150 jester suggesting we can use the lynch fire consensus to attempt to town bloc
jester #155 asks me some questions but i really hate how he's nudging me off vifam here
jester #161 i didnt realize vifam had been ballsy outside of bopping bbmolla
jester #181 funny post aside i don't like how vifam's scumreads suddenly=calling scumteam. looks like a misrep.
jester #190 doesn't think bbmolla is a good lynch "atm"
jester #192 tries to speak for bbmolla, townreads vifam
vifam #193 tells jester to sheep the fire assassin wagon
jester #194 but i caaaaaaant!
bbmolla #199 doubtcasts jester hard.
bbmolla #200 the problem is that this is jester's playstyle, and it's effective as town and scum.
jester #202 awfully defensive towards bbmolla here
jester #206 makes a good case in his defense but i don't see how this is more urgent than pushing a read
jester #207 i don't see this as contradictory
jester #226 unvotes flubber. why? is flubber being too aggressive?
jester #252 (after fire tells bb to move his vote from fire) fire why are you whiteknighting me so hard? then tries to project his scumself on me.
#261 vifam seemingly annoyed that no one has pressed fire
#262 jester gives commentary on the 'no one seems to think he's town' bit of the above post.
#291 jester didn't read over this post properly the first time around mainly because i've been ignoring jester's requests. he needs to explain why he agreed with vifam/289 but didn't think it was scummy.
jester #316 happily puts tier to l-2 after being the l-2 vote to flubber
jester #325 accuses flubber of a misrep when flubber was poking at jester's misrep of me. jfc. (originally wrote: jfk. probably better.)
jester #343 if jester's town i guess he's just trying to build consensus here and get a better lynch, but if he's scum i'm thinking he really wants me to stick around, probably due to my early tr of him.
jester #347 leave maria alone she's town also go push someone omg
jester #352 speaks for maria. no idea why he's on her so hard
jester #355 literally does the same thing fire did with maria
fire #356 pretty apt for fire to post here
jester #360 what has tier done to make you want to unvote here?
jester #366 how can you not sort ANYONE this late into the game??
jester #399 TOTAL flipflop on tiershift. not to mention continuing vifam's narrative of me making useless posts when those posts paid OFF. "between tier and reuben today for me" haha no.
jester #407 not a very useful question. bbmolla never gave a reason to backtrack on to begin with.
jester #428 looks like annoyed scum. town isn't actively blocing yet two probtowns are speculating how good he would look around rope.

my main problems with him can be broken up into four issues

1) fell into the maria trap just like fire did.

2) met the criteria of being on a counterwagon to fire. by being on both of them.

3) between his initial vote for flubber, and subsequent second vote on flubber; the second vote being without explanation or prompting, he had no reason or new read appear to justify his unvote post #226. he simply did it after a vote count. almost like he scumread flubber but didn't want to talk about it. the replaces it but now decides it's the time to accuse maria, and joined the tiershift wagon. my main problem with this behavior is that he continued waffling his vote where he unvotes again tiershift #360; with no reason besides posting following a vote count. there was NO reason to unvote him here and jester didn't present an alternative read to follow, because he has no way or incentive to catch scum. #366 he says he thinks tiershift is town yet after the fire flip he flops hard in #399 doubtcasting him hard. ripping him from everything between waffling on the counterwagons to going for maria (oh lordy no who could ever do such a thing?). but in the end he refuses to scumread him for it and instead asks someone else to do it for him.

4) nobody calls me lynchbait. nobody calls my posts useless. he used vifam's reasoning from the previous day on me to try to discredit me and my "useless what-happened-in-each-posts". these are my GAME NOTES. i make an opinion about every post i can possibly form an opinion on, because while reads change i can compare what everyone was doing at the time. nothing is in a vacuum. everything has context. he tried to continue a narrative where people shouldn't listen to me, and after yesterday i think post #399 is mind blowingly dumb.

VOTE: jester

[ReubenWasFine]

by the time he made his second vote I was getting very confident in fire scum.

ebwop

[ReubenWasFine]

shut up and sheep me

[ReubenWasFine]

originally i townread him for questioning fire during his wagon, but he never wants fire but seemingly wanted any one else. that's an inconsistency.

[ReubenWasFine]

jester: tiershift just hammered you. who are you going for now?

[ReubenWasFine]

did you just claim scum?

[ReubenWasFine]

you're the third vote and my post was a thought experiment. somehow i have a feeling that jester doesn't have the role pm of a tree.

[ReubenWasFine]

did you just claim scum?

Trees can still talk after getting lynched

which was my point of the thought experiment. if he was hammered and stumped, who is he going for? he isn't pushing any one and i want him to start now.

instead he dropped a sarcastic comment. looked like a scum slip.

I don't understand the Jester wagon sorry, I haven't reread the game but I don't think him being indecisive about Fire makes him scum

look at his unvotes and his flipflop on tiershift. pretty clear from that alone

[ReubenWasFine]

That would be too easy. But I'd like to know his updated reads since I only know he scumreads Roark cause of some shit his predecessor said and also scumleans on Tier for whatever reason and townreads Vifam and Flubber. But some of this was a while ago.

Well I was disappointed by how easily we caught Fire, so if we lynched Molla right now and he flipped scum, I'd be very unsatisfied.

is BB your strongest scumread or not?

[ReubenWasFine]

who are your scumreads?

[ReubenWasFine]

That's a reach

he admitted to slipping. considering i was presenting a scenario where he could use his only power, i think it was scumslip.

Im pretty sure it's BB, he was adamant about Fire being town but didn't really make any effort to defend him. He also scumreads Jester for a bit, but after awhile ends up rolling onto Shift for no discernible reason. Now he's on Howard, it just feels like he's putting in low effort as scum at this point, I don't think it's town being lazy like others have said

if we were to pause the game right now and do a show of hands to pick out who has the worst position right now, i'm sure BB would win out. that's why low effort scum!BB is guaranteed loss BB. he's stopped halfway on everything when the only way out was to go all in.

No idea

it's this unhelpful type of post and fluid reads you've been doing lately that gave you away. you prob intended with #399 to coast to day 4 and blow up maria/flubber night 3 and hope vifam continues to be contrarian/that i would scumread him (i hadn't revised my read at that point; for all you knew, he was a top choice for me). you supported bbmolla because he was a good candidate lynch and need to play a long con. then finally you can't let tier (who you townread and unvoted the day before) go down as town despite what happened yesterday. you need to keep us suspicious. finally you need to keep people suspicious of me as well. my first content post squarely centered fire as scum. you can't risk being put in my crosshair, and if i were to mislynch someone else, you could point at your narrative and say "see! his theories are bogus! don't listen to him." that's why post #399 was a scumpost. there's only scum motive in it.

and despite doubting tier and myself we aren't scumreads any more? what changed your mind? how is it helpful not to let us know when your reads change? why do i have to drag it out of you?

you aren't working with any one. despite your passivity, you're actually adversarial. see post #428. neither of those people share your align. that's why you're annoyed.

and why exactly did maria's playstyle conflict with yours so much? you never mentioned how, just that you thought it did. that was a very convenient post you made that sandwiched my reads post in which i townread her, between your previous post. isn't that a quick turn around? why not say it in the post before mine? or is it because you messed up, got flustered, thought maria townslipped and needed to get off of her ASAP?

[ReubenWasFine]

despite "doing him a favor" by lynching him, perhaps mimicking the "suicidal townie" behavior i talked about in post #472 he somehow forgets he only gets stumped in post #477 when he scumslipped. realizing he fucked himself with his own sarcasm he admits to doing the deed in #490.

but, if he really didn't care about his lynch so much (472), like maria and bbmolla before him, why did he get so pissy about being lynched in #428?

[ReubenWasFine]

he suddenly remembered that if he's a tree he shouldn't worry about being lynched (428-472. what changed between then? posts 462-466.) he suddenly forgets again (477) 7 hours later.

[ReubenWasFine]

there's too many inconsistencies in jester's play. do a re-read.

[ReubenWasFine]

i'm theorizing that you want to lynch town. why is that?

[ReubenWasFine]

reminder that jester townread flubber (#399), that it was a shit vote (#174) and that he didn't care for his own lynch (#472) but is steadily getting annoyed by pressure (#513, #521.) rather than answer any of my questions (#501) he makes the cryptic comment about how we're all wrong when he votes flubber instead (#513). rather than defend or push his read himself i have to pull the answer from him (#514-515). the vote alone wasn't going to push anything, but for some reason he completely denied himself the only right vote in bbmolla. that's not town.

[ReubenWasFine]

who do you want to hang, howard?

[ReubenWasFine]

BB. You said you were happy lynching Howard and then later said you weren't as comfortable in it. Howard has joined the largest wagon. How are you feeling about your vote now?

[ReubenWasFine]

no idea why you're depriving yourself of a bbmolla vote jester

[ReubenWasFine]

BB. You vote parked jester yesterday and came by to criticize them several times. What was the post that made you back off?

[ReubenWasFine]

:shrug: i'm trying to get us the best lynch here but if i'm the one asking most of the questions it's going to go slow

[ReubenWasFine]

you don't have to tell us who to lynch maria. you can use conftown as pressure without leading.

[ReubenWasFine]

you're right. my notes said the same but very quickly went from positive to negative. he was grilling several people with questions, including fire. the paranoia even looks natural but the progression of my notes show him from contributing positively to mainly negatively. even his positive contributions can be explained as scum. distracting from fire is a plus, looking like he's contributing is a plus, and to top it off he tells fire to tell him what he's really thinking.

that's why i'm willing to throw out everything from post 1 to 125/146. most of my notes are positive up to this point. in my notes i remark that i would have liked 125, but he took a long time coming back to pressing you as a read. then in 146 he pulls a 180 on your read after i tr you, which i found strange because he posted right before... then right after me. he later brings up his [what i can infer as a] sr of you late in day 1 for no good reason (347, 352, 355: "you're town"-implies he was revising his earlier townread of you (146).) interesting context-post: fire ego read you as town and soon after jester remarks on this in reply to vifam questioning this escaped read in 277. seems like he was reminded that he's supposed to have suspicion of you and not blindly treat you as obvtown. the paranoia is dual purpose with looking contrary to fire's read's. the ego tr can be taken as jest and revised later, but fire later throws the gauntlet with his final reads list, a super-safe list where he copies my townreads. while the tr of jester can be seen as a copy/wifom, there's no doubt to me that he wanted to legitimately promote you as town, which jester would have to oppose to create discord.

146 and onward his posts are mainly negative contrib. #153 is the only good post in the batch.

--

so the only question is whether i'm pulling an exhaustive case out of my behind because i don't want to consider the alternative of lurking scum. my only problem with this consideration is that i was

very willing to see bbmolla or howard as scum

and i'm mostly happy with a tentative tr of howard meanwhile i don't believe my assessment of bbmolla is wrong...

but i've been trying to see if i was wrong and playing these three off each other. howard's happy for jester. bbmolla is happy for howard. i've been setting bbmolla up as the alternative lynch to jester, meanwhile i wanted to see how swayable bbmolla was to hammering. i think vifam wasn't worried about a deadline, but wanted to see the same thing.

the behavior i thought i'd observe since i started wallcasing has been perfect with regards to the assumption of scum!jester. jester first made a useless vote (flubber) and subverted this by voting howard, who i can understand as seeming scummy as his slot is a question mark-normally an easy mislynch, but i've been arguing 'town-energy' for him. the thing is: for jester to push bbmolla, getting you, vifam, tiershift on board is too hard. howard already wants jester, not bb, and jester's my target, so how will he get me to hammer? jester wants to do what he's been doing all game when it comes to his reads; and that is get other people to push them for him. howard is his best compromise lynch, but that's ONLY his best lynch as scum. the best lynch for town!jester is bbmolla, without a doubt. there's few reasons to townread bbmolla unless you know he's town, and for scum!jester to push his lynch, he will create more questions for himself than he will solve. a howard lynch is new life for him. if jester were town, he wouldn't worry about the consequences of a bbmolla lynch. he would have put his vote down, explained his read and pushed it. he's failed to do so. that is the expected behavior i've had for him since i townread tiershift.

he's giving me warning signs exceeding those i had of fire. fire's haphazard playstyle isn't easy for me to predict, so i relied a lot on his interactions with others. jester's meta is a lot of talking, a lot of compromise; he tries to work things out. he's invested in his reads. he'll say that he's town and openly talk about what scum are doing. when he townreads someone he wants them to know it. he procedurally reads people and bounces those reads off reactions until he thinks he has cornered and found scum. when he's scum, he's low contribution. he performs a mimicry of his townplay but he's a hollow shell. his definition of compromise in this game is having other people push his reads. he's pinging people in this game but doesn't care about the resulting feedback. it's a one-way, passive relationship, because it's scum. he can't sort any one. he can't press a read.

he can't make a post like this:

@Jester
May seem boring to you, but it does get results in finding scum and that is what matters.

I'm keeping this in mind.

Right now I can't see any clear scum teams

And you won't for the time being, so don't bother

getting towny hunches towards Something_Smart

Any particular reason?

Don't have a clear read on The_Jester yet. So nullish.

Why do you mention me if I'm null but you don't mention Korts or Marie at all? In post #86 you also talked about me when asked about reads.
Are you saying this just to make me turn my head away from you?

I'm feeling scum from DocterPepper but that could just be an OMGUS going off in my head subconciously.

Do you think voting for you hides innate bad intentions?


You seem very defensive about getting voted on. I'm also surprised by the dissonance you've created between posts #111 and #112. First you shrug it off, and then you freak out (when you noticed being at L-1?)

On a scale of 1-10, how much are you afraid to die?

in this game

[ReubenWasFine]

do you think jester has been consistent this game?

[ReubenWasFine]

for some reason both you and BB think Howard is scum and that the double counterwagons yesterday were town responses to a near consensus of fire's lynch. with your Howard vote you're saying neither of you are bullshitting which looks unnatural because both of you denied a fire lynch and joined counterwagons. so why howard?

[ReubenWasFine]

Is that what you believe?

[ReubenWasFine]

i'm unconvinced fire was bussed.

>Fire Assassin (5)Flubbernugget , TierShift, MariaR, Vifam, The_Jester LYNCH!

2 conftown... i don't think tiershift being the alternate lynch (pushed by fire) means a double bus was going on. that's stupid. flubber made a good contribution to the wagon early. if there's bussing, it would be vifam.

if anything this setup is highly townsided. not getting flips is traded for an extra lynch. our flips have been good.

my problem with howard as scum is mainly the lack of smoothblue during the fire counterwagons (entirely absent). meanwhile bb actively pushed the tiershift counterwagon.

day 2 behavior howard jumped onto my wagon despite not seemingly wanting to be on it while bb never had a great reason to stop suspecting jester but thoroughly denied hammering him.

[ReubenWasFine]

why BB and not vifam?

[ReubenWasFine]

im pre prodging it's bullshit that people can stall the game by refusing to answer a question

[ReubenWasFine]

if nothing has changed wrt vifam why do you want to lynch BB? there should be only one scum left in this set up. they both can't be scum.

[ReubenWasFine]

howard's posts have been pretty awful. he didn't seem to want bb yesterday and doesn't seem to want vifam despite saying nothing has changed. voting bb if his target is vifam is pointless. vifam already voted bb today. not much of a test.

he's also running the prod timer against questions. that doesn't seem town.

but i'm finding it hard to believe that we had a near consensus on a fire lynch yesterday and it devolved into two all-town counterwagons against the obvious lynch. fire's vote was locked into tiershift long before. i can buy the flubber counterwagon materializing but the tiershift wagon makes a lot more sense if bb is scum.

[ReubenWasFine]

wouldn't mariar being ignited two nights in a row imply scum are told that they failed? self-protect was only brought up today, not earlier.

[ReubenWasFine]

hmm yeah. just thought that it was weird to say.

i don't think your slot was a ml. i would have lynched vifam/howard/bb before tiershift. like i said before if the firefighter was someone like bbmolla or smoothblue and they didn't appear in the last moments of day, fire had a shot at speedlynching tiershift, which would mean he would be CCed the next day, being game over wrt scum!tiershift. even if he was reading vifam as PR and trusted vifam to be on at the time, that gamble is simply too much to bet the game on.

i don't disagree with behavior of bb vs. expected scum behavior. what i don't like is how the wagons of day 1 were supposedly entirely all-town minus early fire assassin vote onto tiershift.

VOTE: Howard

L-1

[ReubenWasFine]

vifam as his original target was a pretty good pet read. i made note of vifam early on but i've discounted it for pretty good reasons. i can understand someone that wasn't there for the wagons not to question the content during the wagons, and it was the content that looks good for vifam. he hated the counterwagons, got annoyed by lack of fire lynch, started his own wagon, realized it wasn't happening and threw his vote in on fire. if howard genuinely found this suspicious i thought it was fine to see where he would go with it so i could read him better, but his opinion supposedly hasn't changed or evolved in any way wrt vifam and has voted two other people not named vifam since then. the vifam sr is pretty rotten at this point.

[ReubenWasFine]

thoughts

howard was a bad lynch, but i thought he was the better one in the case of howard AND bbmolla being town. doing bbmolla first would have probably been game over. howard would have continued being incoherent with his reads and gotten lynched anyway.

regardless of above, cloud is town.

i think my gut was right on howard, bbmolla, wrong on jester, but probably right on vifam on day 1. he had no reason to flip from bbmolla onto howard unless he knew howard was town. if bbmolla is guilty of starting a counterwagon to fire, vifam is equally as guilty. the only difference is that bbmolla did so unapologetically without respect of town perception. VOTE: vifam

jester: when you started bringing up my 'crazy theories'/'useless posts' was it out of a townread of vifam or a scumread of me?

[ReubenWasFine]

sorry, i meant he had no reason to vote bbmolla over howard and flip onto howard after the fact unless he made the bbmolla vote with knowledge of howard's align. howard's posts were bad, and attractive for rope.

[ReubenWasFine]

tldr if vifam is town fmpov he knows scum are within bbmolla|howard day 3. he acted like voting order mattered when it shouldn't assuming we 100% had scum.

[ReubenWasFine]

Idk who but it's someone else

Yesterday you said you felt much better with a bb lynch over howard. If we covered our eyes and pretended the howard lynch didn't happen, wouldn't you be voting bb?

@cloud

With day 1 pr we should assume scum asked the mod if maria could self protect. If we haven't lynched an ignited townie and maria hasn't protected anyone we do not have any more mislynches.

[ReubenWasFine]

BB: howard's town. who is scum?

[ReubenWasFine]

This is kind of stupid

why

[ReubenWasFine]

you're not pushing fuck all right now

[ReubenWasFine]

Yeah I've been doing a reread as well because my notes can't give me any more.

Bb: towniest thing vifam has done. What is the scummiest?

[ReubenWasFine]

so has the flubber wagon reached it's conclusion yet? i liked it at first because flubber wasn't contributing and i could observe who else wanted to be on the wagon. nobody is pushing it.

even with flubber making no content posts i still don't think he's scum.

[ReubenWasFine]

You still prefer vifam as your lynch for today?

yeah. unlike jester which was evidence-based my vifam read is hard gut from day 1.

@ReubenWasFine: Explain your vote on me yesterday.

i was feeling really bad about the jester lynch. i considered the possibility that i was wrong but never let that scenario be played out because i was happy to see him slip up and was domineering about his lynch with the goal of a perfect win in mind. if i took myself off the gas for even a little while we would have a lot more information right now if i let everyone organically decide between him and bbmolla.

so when cloud came in yesterday it was like a godsend to me. nobody else wanted to push anything. if we lazily lynched bbmolla day 3 and he was town and we lynched you today, i had to consider the possibility the game would be over right there. but by letting cloud pick the lynch target i was able to observe others for once. if vifam is town, scum imo is 100% within you or bbmolla day 3. he waffled his vote when we presumably had a won game. i thought this was interesting because he voted my preferred lynch (bbmolla) first rather than yourself who i tentatively townread. if scum is 100% within bb or yourself, why would he vote someone i'm doubting hard as being scum (absence during day1 wagons)? the only thing not solid about this observation is that vifam voted after me, but that can be explained by a scum!vifam thinking my vote on you was a test.

We are now at the point where this game is a coin toss.

At best

do you believe we don't have any mislynches remaining?

[ReubenWasFine]

do you believe we don't have any mislynches remaining?

I have no clue nor do I think that's relevant to what I said

if we don't have any mislynches i would consider this game a coin toss at the worst, not in the best scenario.

[ReubenWasFine]

the flubber vote is bad. you're not convincing.

any thoughts in case this is wrong and we have a mislynch maria?

i think day 4 cloud is much less helpful than day 3 cloud. plus i don't like how half of his posts are saying i'm conftown despite nobody getting in my way even when it was in our interests to. i might be more informed but i think the perception was already there. he briefly mentioned he was doubting me (and gave no reason for it) and revised it a post later. he had doubts despite saying he skipped my longer posts and later said trying to read over them was giving him a headache. consistency issue. he's pinging me as "i townread you so don't look into me" / "i'm ABSOLUTELY not informed of your alignment".

[ReubenWasFine]

cloud is town. either this is game (w/l) or a mislynch to day 5 (i'm probably dead) either way i had a last minute consideration that fire was crazy enough to gambit a day 2 loss for no gain. if cloud thinks this goes to day 5, he's forced to say something dumb here or people that don't push on their own could copy my last thoughts and he's pretty much screwed.

my top lynch is still vifam. i don't like how he went from howard|bb to bb|cloud. if vifam is scum, he probably thinks town is afforded a mislynch here. day 3 town!vifam should think bb|howard is 50% scum. that means a guaranteed win today. howard|bb|cloud is now 33% scum, and numbers wise, enough to be overkill for mislynches.

problems i have with vifam

1) got really pissy when i claimed to have a scumtells on him (joke, came back 5 minutes later to explain.. stopping bb from pushing his read)
2) he wagoned me during fire's wagon while calling other people out for offwagoning from fire
3) did narrative building like calling my theories crazy... i worked with what i had and pegged fire as scum. it doesn't matter if tier/flubber don't end up being his partner. if those were my primary reads, i would have attached them to fire. jester added onto this day 2 which really irked me but he says it had nothing to do with vifam's post, but manipulation like this is scummy.
4) voted bb, then howard day 3
5) has scumreads of more than bb today. this doesn't add up with his day 3. the rest of his scum pool (cloud flubber) really suck and he hasn't tried sorting them. if bb is town, he's willing trying to mislynch by not considering alternatives

p-edit

bb: you don't see obvtown in flubber. what is scummy about him?

[ReubenWasFine]

i'm pretty sure we have a mislynch just by the fact that no one is on their best lynches are pushing them

BEST LYNCH, CHOSEN LYNCH

CloudKicker BBMOLLA VIFAM
MariaR VIFAM FLUBBER
BBmolla VIFAM FLUBBER
Flubbernugget BBMOLLA BBMOLLA
ReubenWasFine BBMOLLA VIFAM
Vifam BBMOLLA BBMOLLA

[ReubenWasFine]

you were in his lynchpool over flubber not too long ago, before i suggested that town vifam would consider bbmolla only.

[ReubenWasFine]

in what context does that matter?